but first a clash of the fed heads, why michelle bowman said just this morning that's putting her viewt odds with tuesday's talkers. >>> plus the climate in israel, what a major company is telling its employees as the conflict there enters a fifth day. >>> and later, damning testimony as the sbf talri enters a second week. we have a very busy morning on "worldwide exchange." stay with us. welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister has told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. ♪ ♪ every single day, businesses everywhere are asking the exact same question: is it possible? well, with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help kee

lost in michele bowman's speech, a marrakech was a push back on that. so you have a little battle underway within the fomc where bowman does not want to increase the capital requirements but barr does. i think jamie is onto something because stocks are uninvestable if these proposals go through. they will perform like they did through most of the 2000 when as barclays at -- equity strategist i was underweight in, but it will bleed over in new growth in credit. >> to the last thought here, the big question in the market is the yield curve. how are you reading some of these moves at the long end relative to the short end? brian: the interesting move in the last week was the flooding of the curve notwithstanding last week's auction, but over the course of the last several months, the story has been very steep being in the yield curve and i think barry talked a little bit about the expectation the fed is not going to hike november, november 1. that potentially tees up an interesting decision in december and i think that will be dependent on how financial co

fed speak includes governor michelle bowman at 10:15 a.m. and austan goolsbee at 10:30 a.m.spond to bond moves? tom: i am sorry, dr. austan goolsbee has maybe covid but we don't think so. jonathan: those two speakers talked about differences on the committee and difference in degree. the rightist degree -- the widest degree of difference may be michelle bowman and austan goolsbee. tom: what i see is austan goolsbee with all the social economics of chicago. shall bowman has to be hardwired to what michael barr is doing and the fed is doing. jonathan: jay pelosky joining us now. principle of safety -- tpw advisory. how, if any way, does a 5.30 percent yield change your world? j: we had a great start to the year. the last couple months have been challenging and we have given a fair bit that. to me, we have had various bonds for two years. we have now had a 40% benchmark allocation of fixed income. we have been running a 10% weighting in fixed income and have had zero treasuries the last few years. sometimes i get accused of being -- but we have been mecca bearish on bonds. 5%?

we heard from michelle bowman yesterday claiming multiple hikes still needed on the table. and michael barr, who did not consent that we are at restrictive rate yet. he said we are likely, or very near restrictive levels. this is important because we're watching for any change of language in the fed speak. do they acknowledge this recent rise in long end yields almost doing the work for them to tighten monetary policy a bit as we near that peak in the fed funds rate? we did hear slight comments about that last week from the dove on the fed board, goolsby, but we have not heard anyone else reiterate that this rise in yields is already doing some tightening for them. that's what we're on the lookout for. yesterday's move in the markets was not led by the front end, it was not rattled by this fed speak, we saw twos and ten's steepining. this long end yield rises captivating the markets' attention. it has little to do with fed speak, and more to do with the supply and demand dynamic for treasuries. kriti: by extension, the rest of the world as well. our bloomberg opinion column

michelle bowman says they need to hold rates higher for longer.ile governor michael barr says it is how long they will stay at the restrictive level. amid the slew of comments, jay powell joined fed president patrick harker on the tour of the town in pennsylvania. they were concerned over high prices and ability to find wo workers. we have bill ackman who told cnbc the rate hikes are starting to hit the u.s. economy. >> i think the fed is probably done. i think the economy is starting to slow. i think the level of real interest rates is high enough to slow things down. high mortgage rates. high car rates and credit card rates is having an impact on the economy. the economy is still solid, but weakening. seeing lots of evidence of weakening. >> european banks were resilient in september despite wider market weakness amid regional banking concerns in the u.s. and collapse of credit suisse. we have the head of jp morgan joini stanley joining us. thank you for being here. talk about big picture. if you look at where european banks valuations are again

we have a number of fed of officials speaking today including john williams and michelle bowman and tom barkin and neel kashkari speaking today. earnings and ecom and fed speakers are a mix for investors today as we gear up for the trading day. futures are off the lows of early today. the dow would open up about 60 points lower. for more on this, let's bring in tom lee at fund strat global advisers. >> good morning, frank. >> are those all potential market movers? >> absolutely. markets are dealing with uncertainty right now because we're in the middle of earnings which is better than expected. we have a geopolitical situation which is uncertain and interest rates have been creeping up again. i think markets remain on edge and i think investors are not committed. i think the bias is to the upside with the position of investors in the last ten weeks. >> tom, you are one of the biggest bulls on the street. you are bullish on the market's direction. with that bullishness in mind, what is your wex word of the day? >> the wex word of the day is uncertainty. >> why? >> it is -- i think invest

michelle bowman used the word multiple hype. than one, might be more than two, could mean a number of things. what the bond market is telling you is it expect inflation to stick around longer than the market expect and to be stickier than the market expects, the idea of rate cutting 24 is off the table unless they bring it so quickly that the economy falls off the edge and i don't think that is what it is going to do. neil: is dicey to get that going. the rating he was referring to could go up another half a point, the fed funds, around the 5.5% area bringing it to 6% and on and on we go, fixed rate mortgages are north of 7%. in a matter of weeks if we continue this pace it will be overs 8%. stay with us and the latest on the fight on capitol hill to find a new speaker, the guy who was more than happy to toss the left -- the last one, tim burchard is next. ♪ ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styl

his employment index benefit, that jump back to expansion today michelle bowman urged multiple rate hikes to subdue inflation, she cited high energy prices and could start to reversible the progress of the fed has made in fighting inflation and down 2.5% aftermarket, in the past three months crude has gushed higher by 28% and sizzling energy prices are not the only thing that has what are the top global strategist out there modeling for less than smooth economic landing, let's get to him and the floor show, david kelly asset management chief global strategist. you were nodding at you looked at the treasury yields, does this look a little dislocated at the moment, what is going on here. >> would you look at the threat of the government shutdown code away. what is going on it looks like washington can find a way of getting things done we didn't have a debt where government shutdown the extremists are getting pushed out and compromises being made were the only way to get anything done is republic at the democrats passing a bill. >> that much is good the typically way to do the is decorate bo

so, there is quite a range there, and there are people like michelle bowman who want to hike twice more. but there are people out there who have that viewpoint. what's going to tell the truth here is what's going to happen with the data. you were right to point to the thursday cpi report and to the inflation report coming and watch all this stuff. i don't care what the job growth level is, if we can maintain this happening with this kind of wage growth and maintain or even give up a bit on margin, i think that's good. >> appreciate being here. steve liesman on set with us at post 9. >>> coming up, more on the energy pullback. plus, there's a big merger brewing in the space. you probably heard the headlines. what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today. you can't buy great conversa

busy 10:00 hour, several fed speeches including kansas city president jeffrey schmidt, governor michelle bowmanc data a key focus for investors today with the dow now in the red for the year. we're taking a look at dow and s&p futures. you see here, both turning slightly positive, just a few moments ago. let's tee up the trading day ahead with keith lerner, at truist advisory services. good morning. great to see you. >> nice to see a little bit of green for a change. >> a little bit. give us a sense. what do you expect in the day ahead? we're mentioning the long bond almost at 5%, the ten-year at 4.8%. what are you expecting today? >> i think it is all about yields. what we're looking for is to see some stability. the other thing for the market, we're approaching the moving average on the s&p, we're at 43.29. so what you're looking for is to see if we have a little bit of movement from fear to greed that people look at this pullback for some opportunities. >> you're saying if we go from fear to greed, does that mean you see this potentially as a buying opportunity? if so, are there certain sect

but there are still hawks, michelle bowman, listen to what she said about it, about having to raise ratese. >> i'll continue to watch inflation as financial conditions continue to evolve and develop. and that gives us a little bit more of an opportunity as a committee to weigh the data as it's coming in. we're definitely data dependent in the path going forward. so it's another factor that we will consider. but if we don't find ourselves, you know, making a dent or if we see inflation increasing again, then certainly we need to be able to position ourselves to be ready to increase rates if that's a necessary action. >> she's the only one really talking more explicitly about increasing rates. and she's referenced lately in comments multiple potential hikes needed. but the bulk of the committee, and logan is a voter so that was a notable shift in tone from her, is talking about the fact that maybe they might have done enough or at least the rise in long-term treasury yields is helping do their work for them. neil kashkari who was also hawkish previously said something similar, here's what h

. >> did you see michele bowman, the governor, she's the most hawkish, she gets a vote every meeting,ld get a few more hikes. she was the first to worry and warn about inflation. that's just sort of adding to the worries here. and then if you add it all up, guys, it does increase the chance of a hard landing, right, because it constrains capital. companies have to pay higher interest, consumers have to pay higher interest rates and eventually -- >> that's the fear. the ultimate fear is not, hey, the economy is cruising along and we're going to have higher debt cost. it brings things out of balance. 8% mortgage rates and things like that. >> starts to filter through. >> not great for any interest rate sensitive groups, obviously. we just looked at the banks, whether it's utilities and the like. you don't know, mike, some high dividend payers that bob was mentioning earlier, verizon at 8.4%, for example, are they just moving at spread to treasuries? >> in a sense. implicitly when the market has your yield at 6% plus, which is where they've been for a while, those companies, it's saying

you have michelle bowman, fed governor. >> wants a few more hikes. >> straight out used the word hikess. my guess so far on this, williams let it ride. i did not get a sense he was in a hurry. >> waller is going to speak today. >> we'll listen to chris waller. you guys were asking what's the big guy think? i think the big guy wants to take a step back and just watch this thing play out for a bit. he doesn't want to break it, but he has been seriously on the record saying he is not the guy that's going to leave here with inflation still out of control. he's been definitive about that. he's got a sense of his place in history on this thing, and i think when you walk into the fed's -- you know how it used to be don't ef up the one thing they told you, at the fed they say, don't be arthur burns. that's the thing. the same as don't mess up. >> he's not going to be that guy. >> we don't get declines next year as much as we thought in rates. >> 50 basis points off. i have to look at the curve right now, but right nowfy if i look at this, we're still above 5%, 5.1%, into july, and there's a 43

lisa: that was michelle bowman speaking at a panel at the world economic forum -- excuse me at the imfading that way. and we will be catching up with him soon. we've been talking about a whole host of issues of course, the conflict in israel as well as the economic data that just came out in terms of inflation and how much it's coming in. maybe not as fast as people would like. you can see that playing out in the markets. although not really that significant move given the fact that we got an upsize surprise to inflation. right now, we are seeing the s&p up by now just .2 of a percent and bond yields lower than they were lower earlier in the morning. big discussion point around oil, not only the price and where it's headed due to some of the unrest the middle east but also exxon, close to a $58 billion deal to buy pioneer natural resources which would be the biggest deal that exxon has done since 1999, the biggest global deal of the year, making them absolutely the dominant player in the shell patch. we're seeing pioneer shares up 1.7%, 241, quite a bit waste from $250 a share price ta