michelle meyer, bank of america securities head of u.s. economics. coming up, we turn to the rental market. rental demand soaring income and everyone wants to come back to the cities. but will that be put on hold with delta? this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ romaine: welcome back. today, we are focused on the u.s. housing market. a lot of attention we have been paying to home purchases. but what about the rental market. we have been seeing a lot of inflation spillover. caroline: 17% higher in july versus what the previous tenants had been paying as an average across the u.s.. apparently that is a record. of course, we don't see if you are getting months free, for example. but a member when we were all thinking about whether you would return to the city or not. in the spring, months free, 20% discounts. the minute i tried to get a new rental, they were all gone. taylor: 18 months of the rent and six months of that are free and you are thinking, do the math, that kind of sounds like a good deal. all of those deals have escaped us. let's do that with beth friedman

michelle meyer, bank of america global research head of u.s. economics.ell tonight, minutes tomorrow. that is the big story. we will detail with the rest of the week looks like next. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: live from new york, i'm alix steel. guy johnson in london. a lot coming up in the next 24 hours. aside from jay powell at 1:30 we'll hear from minneapolis fed president neel kashkari hosting a town hall. foreign ministers will also be having emergency meetings about afghanistan. we heard there conversation like between boris johnson and emmanuel macron. guy: the leaders are worried. the fear in europe is we get another huge wave of migrants. that certainly corrupted the german election. angela merkel keen to make sure that does not happen again. the same goes for emmanuel macron. tomorrow the fed minutes. you wonder whether power will be dovish at the minutes will be more hawkish. we will get -- we want to get sequencing in terms of how this will happen. we will hear from the dallas fed president. we will get inflation data out of the u.k. and the e

michelle meyer is head of u.s. economics at bank of america with card data speaking to this trend. steve, let's start with you. >> the effects of the delta variant are showing up in the high frequency data. flattening out the upward slope of the recovery for some parts of the economy but revealing outright declines in others. open table reservations were actually above their 2019 level in june. now they're 9% below jpmorgan card spending tracker for in-store spending is down 3.9% from -- compared to january 2020 it has stopped improving and ukg shift work, that's a high frequency proxy for employment, it slipped 2.4% in august most of the weakness in the data looks to be linked to the south and the southeast where the delta variant has exploded, hence the census this comes from the delta variant. ukg work shift numbers are down in every region of the country for august looks to be a seasonal component to it. but they're down much more sharply, you can see, in the southeast. that's that second red bar there. growth in open table bookings in florida and texas kekleined sharply. down

michelle meyer joins us later, bank of america securities head of economics. forward to optimism from michelle after two hours from lisa. you're saying i am not being bearish, i am -- lisa: looking around corners. jonathan: every single morning. monday through friday from 6:00 to 9:00 eastern. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. senate is moving closer to passing that $550 billion infrastructure bill. a vote is scheduled for 11:00 eastern. once the measure is passed democrats plan to approve a budget resolution that would clear the way for passage of the rest of president biden's economic agenda. they could do that without any republican support. for the first time in decades american workers are calling the shots. companies such as kroger, under armour, encz up ole are pushing up hourly wages to try to retain employees. workers are scoring the biggest pay hikes since the early 1980's. wages for the leisure and hospitality have risen at an annual rate of 6.6% in the last two years. this is for tom. the past late of th

kathleen: with that in mind, michelle meyer from bank of america with her data saying that consumer spendings starting to pull back in the last few weeks. here is what consumers are spending money on -- the yellow line, dining at trans has come down. blue line, people flying, that has also come down. and then at the bottom, working from office, it peaks and then come down a bit a sign that may be there are some weaknesses or a little bit less strength. a big question presumably for jay powell and everybody in jackson hole on friday. shery: kathleen hays, our global economics and policy editor. we will be hearing from another fed president and more from esther george in a few moments. and we have breaking news. we continue to watch the latest developments in afghanistan. white house press secretary jen psaki saying that there will be no change on the 31st of august deadline. this as we heard from president biden himself that he will hunt down those behind the cabell attacks outside the kabul international airport, killing at least 60 afghans, 12 u.s. service members and dozens others injured.

but michelle meyer writes, the report leaves september in play for a taper announcement but contingentn another jobs report next month. some say september some say the november meeting is when the announcement will come. some are saying december or january. there are some officials on the fed who might want to begin tapering in the fall, call them the fall guys. here are the keys to the decision that will be made a strong august jobs report will be necessary a sense that the impact of delta will not mean knew lockdowns and this idea that inflation being transitory, that's going to have to define itself by the fall it will be up to powell to make september a real possibility for a taper announcement or take it off the table through his speech. >> steve, what would a faster taper than expectey specifically that it will bring down the bond purchases first before raising rates a quicker taper means the fed would have the flexibility, not necessarily a guarantee, but the flexibility to possibly raise interest rates sooner. it's something that one of the fed officials was in favor of a faste

hiring and wages as the new delta variant of covid spreads across the country joining me now, michelle meyer and peter quigley. thank you both so much for being here michelle, if you don't mind we're going to start things off with you a lot of data to unpack here unemployment helped slightly, huge gains for hospitality, 380,000 jobs education had big gains as well. we'll get to that in a minute. what does this mean for the markets and maybe for some people even more importantly the potential of tapering coming this year? >> well, i think it's just as steve suggested. it's a lot of relief for the market because they were so much focused on what was going to go wrong in the economy, wrong in the data a lot of the down side risks, and then the jobs report comes, which was, you know, really everything and more and i think longer on the jobs report, the strong overall, number of net positive revisions, low unemployment rate, increase across the board so, i think that market participants saw this as okay there's more fundamental stress in the economy we do need to be cognizant of the risks in the

he also sees a faster tapering michelle meyer of b of a writes that the jobs report leaves septemberor a taper announcement but contingent on another very strong zwrobs report next month. so here is the new taper debate that's out on the street september or november for an announcement december or january for taper. hold on. the fed's open market committee has comesome who want to go faster three fed officials are the hawkish once, robert kaplan, jim billiard chris waller. the vice-chair expressed sympathy last week, but didn't endorse them although the hawks are unlikely to have support of fed chair jay powell and others, among them are those who want to taper as soon as september or october that's the actual reduction. so here are the keys strong jobs report, you've got to have another 900,000 or 800,000. what is the impact of the delta variant? does fed asset purchases even help that at all and does inflation show any sign of being transitory when we get the next report wednesday, by the way. all of this heightened expectations for jackson hole in a couple of weeks. we will have s

michelle meyer saying some metrics of consumer spending have started to slow credit card use, etc. i love this chart. look at the steady rise in dining out, flying on a plane. far right hand side of the screen, you can see every one of them has peaked and started to go back down. there was a manufacturing survey they put out every month and the latest one is for manufacturing but they had a question about how the virus so far -- recently, delta affecting their look at employment. 60% of the people they surveyed said they have had job applications fall a bit so that might be another sign people are getting a little bit nervous. we will wait to see what jay powell has to say about it when he speaks at the jackson hole symposium on friday. paul: kathleen hays there. we will be hearing from jerome powell later during bloomberg's special coverage of jackson hole. right now, let's get a check of what is happening on the markets with sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. sophie. sophie: with markets waiting to see what comes, treasury futures continuing to go lower. s&p e-minis little changed.