professor marvin weinbaum from the middle east institute, many thanks indeed for your analysis.e welcome. south africa has announced a tenfold increase in the number of troops to be deployed in response to widespread violence sparked by the jailing of the former president, jacob zuma. up to 25,000 soldiers are to be sent onto the streets of kwazulu—natal and gauteng provinces. more than 70 people have now died — with the worst violence in years centred on durban and johannesburg. here's our south africa correspondent nomsa maseko. factory after factory after factory, ransacked and burned by looters. two young men are lying dead beside a railway line, 48 hours after they died. this is what six days of looting and rioting in kwazulu—natal and gauteng provinces in south africa looks like. violent protests broke outjust hours after south africa's former president, jacob zuma, was jailed forfailing to comply with a court order to give evidence at a corruption inquiry. however, speculation is rife that even though this may have started out as a pro—zuma protest, it was a well orchestr

practice of conflict management and american foreign policy programs and research scholar at the middle east institute. he joins us from washington, do you see -- washington, d.c.. what does the withdrawal of troops mean for this debility of the region? guest: it introduces enormous uncertainty. obviously, the taliban have already been taking advantage of the lack of american action against them. advancing, especially in the countryside, but in some important towns also. meanwhile, negotiations are ongoing and no one knows where they might lead or not lead in this long history in afghanistan of civil war and chaos. michael: i think the question all observers have at this moment is whether the afghan security forces are strong enough or capable enough to hold off the tele-ban and secure peace for their country. guest: i don't think there's any indication they can secure peace throughout all the provinces, but there is indication they may be able to secure major towns, major cities. i'm not sure kabul is about to fall, certainly the afghanistan experts i talked to say that is unlikely. michael: what do

middle east and north africa senior geopolitical analyst for clipperdata. and also in beirut, christophe abi-nassif, director of the lebanon program at the middle east institute welcome to you all. thanks so much for joining "inside story" today. rana, i want to start by talking about the human toll of this political deadlock. the lira has lost 90% of its value. more than half of the population has slipped into poverty. there are fuel shortages and medicine shortages. how much are people in lebanon struggling right now? >> first, hello. i don't know if you're hearing me correctly, because part of the total collapse of lebanon is also electricity, and the internet. now, it's definitely a very severe humanitarian crisis, when it comes to access to basic needs, food, medication, the health care system is collapsing day after day. however, this is not a typical humanitarian crisis, so it's not something that was -- not that we couldn't prevent this. it's a systematic murder of the lebanese people and people living in in lebanon. -- and people living in lebanon. everything that you're seeing here has the effect of a violent war or an embargo without actually havin

also research scholar at the middle east institute and joins us now from washington. d. c. welcome to d w sir. what does the withdrawal of foreign troops mean for the stability of the region? introduce is enormous uncertain. t, obviously the taliban have already been taking advantage of the lack of american action against i advancing especially in the countryside, but also in some important towns. meanwhile, negotiations are ongoing, and no one knows where they might lead or not lead. and this long history and africana and of civil war and chaos. i think the question that all observers have at this moment is whether the afghan security forces are strong enough or capable enough to hold off the taliban and secure peace for their country . i don't think there's any indication that they can secure peace throughout all the provinces, but i think there is indication that they may be able to secure major towns, major cities. and i'm not sure i had all the cargo was about to fall. certainly the f kennedy stand experience i talk with think that's on likely. what do you think the pl

he is the director of afghanistan pakistan studies at the middle east institute in del mar. we have scott ritter. he is a former intelligence officer and the united nations weapons inspector. and in kabul, we have woodstock or are him. he is a conflict. peace and security expert art tillman cross talk rules and effect. that means he can jump in anytime you want. and i always appreciate me go to scott, 1st, many of us watching this conflict for 2 decades expected this outcome was only the dates that mattered most here. made my introduction, i said, i call it in complete and utter failure. the american people are poor and no one is held account, and if no one has held account, scott, then it's going to happen again. go ahead. your thoughts, of course, is going to happen again. it's in the, it's in the d. n a or the united states. so when we intervene, we intervene using a american centered template that is designed to placate domestic political factions. here in the united states, not to solve problems overseas, we've seen this almost everywhere. united states intervenes afgha

also research scholar at the middle east institute and joins us now from washington. d. c. welcome to d w, sir. what does the withdrawal of foreign troops mean for the stability of the region? introduce this enormous uncertainty. obviously the carbon of already been taking advantage of the lack of american action against i advancing especially in the countryside, but also in some important towns. meanwhile, negotiations are ongoing and no one knows where they might lead or not lead. and there's a long history in afghanistan of civil war and chaos. i think the question that all observers have at this moment is whether the afghan security forces are strong enough or capable enough to hold off the town then and secure peace for their country. i don't think there's any indication that they can secure peace throughout all the provinces, but i think there is indication that they may be able to secure major towns, major cities. and i'm not sure all the cobble is about to fall. certainly the f kennedy and experience i talk with. he says that's unlikely. what do you think the plan i

it had to be middle east and north africa senior geo political analyst for a clipper data and also invaded christophe. i see the director of the 11 on program at the middle east institute. a warm welcome to you all. thanks so much for joining inside story today. but i want to start by talking about the human toll of this political deadlock. the lira has lost 90 percent of its value. more than half of the population has slipped into poverty. there are fuel shortages and medicine shortages. how much are people in lebanon struggling right now? and 1st, hello. i don't know if you are hearing me correctly because part of the total collapse of lebanon is also to the d and the internet. now the, it's definitely a very severe humanitarian crisis. my contact is 2 basic needs approved medication . the health care system is collapsing the after day. however, this is not as typical him anything in crisis. so it's not something that was and not that we couldn't prevent. this is a systematic murder of the lebanese people and people living in, in lebanon. everything that we're seeing here has the effect on a violent war or an embargo without actually having violent war. and it's actu

he is the director of afghanistan and pakistan studies at the middle east institute in del mar. we have scott ritter. he is a former intelligence officer and the united nations weapons inspector. and in kabul, we have woodstock or are him. he is a conflict. peace and security expert art tillman cross talk rules and effect. that means he can jump in anytime you want. and i always appreciate when you go to scott, 1st, many of us watching this conflict for 2 decades expected this outcome was only the date that mattered most here. made my introduction, i said, i call it a complete and utter failure. the american people are poor and no one is held account, and if no one is held account, scott, then it's going to happen again. go ahead. your thoughts, of course, is going to happen again. it's in the it's, it's in the d. n a or the united states. so when we intervene, we intervene using a american centered template that is designed to placate domestic political factions. here in the united states, not to solve problems overseas, we've seen this almost everywhere. united states interven

i've been speaking to professor marvin weinbaum, director of pakistan and afghan studies at middle east instituteanalyst at the us state department. ido i do think this is quite significant. it, as you say, is symbolic, it shows the taliban are prepared now to actually hold territory, that they will do so openly, and i think what really stands out is the hands of the government seem tied. it would be very difficult at this point to launch a military operation to clear that area, and of course, it should be mentioned that the revenue that comes from all of these border crossings is really what little the government has going for it in terms of being able to find anything. the rest is funded by the united states and the international community, so this is quite significant. find this is quite significant. and we heard — this is quite significant. and we heard that _ this is quite significant. and we heard that morning from the former president george w bush. do you think he is right in his assessment that the us withdrawal is an unbelievably bad decision?— bad decision? that view is shared by _ bad

he is the director of afghanistan and pockets on studies at the middle east institute of marvin for so much we can talk about let's start with the taliban. the taken this key crossing into pakistan, but this is just part of a very wide and very quick push to take territory. is it surprising that they have managed to take all this territory so quickly? i think we didn't expect this indeed is a good reason to believe that the taliban didn't expect that they were going to be able to progress quickly. but it is a, i think, a function of the fact that there has been a lot of confidence in the defense forces. and that these people are particularly not being supported in the way they have in the past with close support, mainly from the united states. but also from guns sources on military. and so this is essentially the reason why things i believe have moved so quickly. so then without simplifying this too much, are we actually of almost back where we were 20 years ago at the start of the war? i know things that different, but it looks like the taliban is almost back in charge again and avi a

your institute for middle east policy. thank you very much for doing and the, this is a message to the world. we need to stand up step up, but if you don't understand what's going on and you need to wait. cuba is a, unfortunately, a failed state and refreshing their citizens. they are standing up to cuba as authoritarian regime, their basic needs are not being met. and they are understandably exhausted, tired of the mismanagement of the human economy, tired of the lack of, of adequate food and of course, inadequate response to the cold. can demick communism is a fail system universally fail system? not only this kill vote event for q, but then this is a world event. this isn't about politics, is about saving lives is about unity, not the vision. and bottom line is the by taking action. a selection of the voices this week reacting to events in cuba, which saw the biggest demonstrations against the communist regime in decades on sunday, people across the island, 5th, through the streets, to them, their frustration at food an

he's also a non resident fellow at the institute for middle east policy, a very good day. thank you for coming on. what is the situation right now while the situation continues to worse and, you know, as, as you saw earlier, the economical being of much of the patient can use continues to diminish and as well as their living conditions. but the resignation of prime minister doesn't have to means out a political deadlock will persist and any sort of viable reforms to unlock key developmental aid and to make the call me bible gun is nowhere near on the horizon . why is it so difficult to form a government 11 especially now when the situation is so dire? yes, exactly, that's, that's a very important question. we'll talk to matters. this is what we have learned. we learned that even with the country on its knees, with over half the population, living in poverty with food inflation, about 400 percent loving physical leadership is focusing on their shares of power and government rather than the well being of their people. the political paralysis, we have seen the bickering betwe

he's also a non resident fellow at the headed institute for middle east policy, a very good day. thank you for coming on. what is the situation right now? well, the situation continues to worse and, you know, as, as you saw earlier, the economical being of much of the population produced continues to diminish and as well as their living conditions. but the resignation of prime minister doesn't talk. how do you do it means that a political deadlock will persist and any sort of viable reforms to unlock key developmental aid and to make the call me bible a gun is nowhere near on the horizon. why is it so difficult to form a government 11 especially now when the situation is so dire? yes, exactly, that's, that's a very important question. we'll talk to matter as though this is what we have learned. we learn that even with the country on its knees, with over half the population, living in poverty with food inflation, about 400 percent loving. first leadership is focusing on their shares of power and government rather than the well being of their people. the political paralysis we have

from those in power, max kelly, and is a political scientist specializing in the middle east and north africa. the institute of development studies at the university of sussex joins us by skype from freeburg in germany. good to have you with us. so this lines talk about how the speaker of parliament has been calling on the president to reverse is decision. do you think the president will be listening to that? i imagine he'll be listening it to i doubt he'll be following it. i don't think that is an unsurprising call, but it is the logical call for the speaker parliament to make it a logical cause, a parliament to not accept it. it's 3 thing, but there seems to be a larger kind of plan in place and including obviously the a worrying attack against your colleagues to know that does not make me think that this will, this will be walked back too quickly. that being said, there are political forces with and near the and i think the labor union, this includes wider society organization and includes the remaining force parliament that can push back against us. and i think that can still affect how this is going to

cross over to max gallia and the physical scientists speaking to earlier as well, middle east and north africa, expert institute of development studies at the university of sussex. joining me from fryeburg a in germany to actually get the narrative out max and to explain your position. obviously, you need to be able to communicate if at the moment what we understand, if the president himself has cut those communication lines, certainly to the international media. how did the domestic politics, the politicians that don't agree with the president? how are they going to get that message out? how are they going to ask questions? yeah, that's exactly the question. and i mean, maybe 1st of all, just process the best thing that i hook your team into this is okay. and that it's incredibly worrying what is happening on that front. i'd also say that i think yes, we've seen demonstrations in, in favor and generations in public, in favor of, of the fact that the president but i would be very cautious in interpreting that, especially in terms of interpreting that in terms of wider public opinion after the coup in egypt, we

he's a political fine to specializing in middle east and north africa. the institute of development studies at the university of sussex and southern england joins me now from fryeburg in germany. could talk with a mr. get, let's just get your initial reaction to what you're hearing about this ongoing situation and to nicea. good morning, thank you very much for having me. and let me start by saying that i hope your team and tune is doing okay. i think the 1st thing to say in all of this is that this is an ongoing situation. and obviously analysis is coming through very quickly from many different perspective. but it is happening that, you know, it's still developing very quickly. and i do think we will have to take that into account. obviously, the 1st question is, what happened yesterday and whether that is the coo and i think certainly, you know, it works like a to to, and it talks like a q and a in many bray that has that appearance. and certainly it does not seem to be backed entirely by article 80 of the constitution not being said, i think it still does. trace m

joining us from genus linux. gillian is a political scientist specializing in middle east and north africa at the institute of development studies at the university of sussex. he says, fill up a unity for negotiated political solutions to this crisis. obviously, the 1st question is, what happened yesterday and whether that is the coo and i think certainly, you know, it was like a to to and it in talks like a coo and in many bray that has that parents. and certainly it does not seem to be backed entirely by articulate the constitution. that being said, i think it, it still, if the treatment is playing out today, and we'll have to watch how people are st, very acting, but also how he institutional actors, including parliament and including security forces and including the unions are going to react to this. so i think if it's a situation of the playing out and that's important to keep in mind the constitutional court, obviously it's kind of the overarching issue here and kind of the overarching political failure often of the political class. and in the past couple of years just in the inability to, to create

middle east and north africa. the university of sussex is institute of development studies with us from frankfurt, germany today. max sam was telling us there about how life is carrying on, quote, unquote, as normal, but the fact is normal was already different for tennessee. and wasn't it all of the covert problems? economic problems, post i, phil attacks in 2015. the economy was already in all sorts of trouble. yes, absolutely. the current political crisis is coming on top of a really, really dire help. crisis with because it demick and it is coming at the end of a long economic crisis that has played the country and made life really hard for a lot of them. and for a long time, this goes back to not just the 2011 revolution but, but also the, have been on the reading before that cost of living up and writing for a long time. inflation is been very serious on employment, very high. so the economy situation is been on people's minds way before the events of the last couple of days. i often hear and read about the tourism sector being obviously adversely affected by all of this. is that absolutely crucial to tune his

pardon me, you are an analyst on specialists to max. specialize the middle east and north africa, the university of the 6 institute of development studies. joining me now from fly back in germany, i got my teeth in properly for this interview. i promise you an order as you've just heard, a pop song on your y, as has said that they really want to discuss more and open the dialogue with the president. and those are in charge of the country right now. that kept pretty quiet for the last 24 hours. yes, i mean, you can only begin to imagine that this must be an incredibly worrying situation. why not on multiple levels? obviously a lot of the members of the party have experienced extreme oppression at the hands of the last 12 regime in smith. yes. so a return to oppression has always been a concern that a so much driven the politics of the party in the last decade. so this has been an agreement, extremely worrying situation for them. also get the power base, the parliament, which is very much at the height of this kind of attack from the executives that we've seen over the last 2 days. their statement now is in a way on

middle east and the north africa. and the university of plastics is institute of development studies. he thinks soon as he has to go, crisis is compounded by long running health and economic problems goes back to not just the, the 2011 ablation but, but also the been on the reading before that cost of living up and writing for a long time, inflation is been very serious, youth unemployment been very high. so the economy situation is been on people's minds way before the events. but the last couple of days the country is facing a wider economic dilemma. one of the challenges that really continued $102011.00 is that to me as politicians have failed to put forward broad, broader development plan and development model for the country that a wider political consensus can be built around. and that can really improve the lives of people on the ground. and the big question now with science changed at the last couple of days is that that will change because that is not the 1st person to mention that corruption been an important topic going that way before the 2011 revolution and a lot of stron

nesrine malik, bronwen maddox, director of the institute for government — and before that, foreign editor at the times. and with me in the studio, the middle eastworld service, sebastian usher. welcome to you, sebastian, and welcome to both of you, thanks so much forjoining us. now, the sound of an english summer. no, not leather on willow, nor the clink of ice against glass — but the electronic "ping" of an alert on your mobile phone advising you to self—isolate because you've recently been in contact with someone who's developed covid. in just one week this month, 600,000 people were notified by the health service app. what effect might monday's ending of restrictions have on that "pingdemic"? one which has affected borisjohnson, his chancellor, the secretary of state for health — oh, and don't forget the leader of the opposition. bronwen, some people would say this is quite a brave bit of policymaking by the government, but presumably in the run—up to deciding to lift these restrictions, it will have factored in the evidence coming from scientists that there would be a third wave in the summer? you'd like to think so. i think this one is bei

fighting for and making the case and create a political system and institution coming of afghan leaders with beautiful homes all over the middle east europe, there's corruption everywhere it's time for the afghan people to do the hard work, the heavy lifting and demand that they push back against the taliban not just militarily but politically, exercise their own rights, secure their own freedom we provided the resources for the afghan could possibly ever have dreamed of and all of the training of two decades. time to come back and make sure that we do this right we few american troops and make sure that were never attacked from this place again. maria: this offers china a portal for the chinese communist party to access the arabian sea via iran, pakistan, and may very well become a more dangerous neighborhood if you will, i want to get your thoughts on what's taken place regarding china these last two weeks as the ccp celebrates 100th year anniversary and xi jinping said that china's enemies will have their heads cracked and bleeding in any future conflict and he vowed to take taiwan back, your thoughts and where we are with china

institution greatly harmed. this is all terrible for america. >> instead of this january 6 commission i suggest we have a commission on the wars in the middle easting these guys before congress and make them testify as to what they were doing. this disconnect from reality has been there for a long time and it needs to be held to account. >> laura: we have plans that are billions of our budget and so can't fly and and we have leaders like patrick donahoe who spent more time last week thinking about how he would silence of veteran on twitter then how the military little family defeat china. >> they played in a war game in of last year and without overstating, it failed miserably. team that had been studying the united states for the last 20 years just ran rings around us and knew exactly what we were going to do before we did it. >> laura: if that doesn't send a chill up and down your spine i don't know what will. if we are going to spend more than $700 billion a year and on the military then we need a military that can win a war instead of politics. taxpayers spent a lot on her national defense and our recruits sign up because they love the count

the negotiations as well as the washington institute after his most recent trip to israel and the west bank and last but not least the chair of the middle east program, ambassador james jeffrey who will discuss the implications of the cease-fire and conflict. ambassador, the floor is yours. >> thank you and welcome, everyone to the wilson center. i have the honor of leading our remarkable team of scholars and analysts. congress chartered the center a little over five decades ago for in their words strengthening the relationship between the world of learning and the world of public affairs. in other words, we seek to discern lessons of foreign policy and offer them up to policymakers, analysts and influencers. nowhere isis that mission more important or challenging than in and around gaza and that is between the israelis and palestinians. may 10th we also in the most graphic of ways and escalation of confrontation involving israelis, palestinians, police in jerusalem for peaceful protests to violent protests to rocket fire and air strikes from the use of rocks to the use of balloons and drones. the violence took a staggering toll many dead on

the contemporary middle east, myself, and the curator for the ancient levant, we got in touch with colleagues in lebanon and asked what the situation was with the cultural institutionsir surrounding windows. imagine getting all the pieces from 7a differentjigsaw boxes mixing altogether, and you're approaching the scope of the problem. we've seen some pictures of the state of the inside of the museum at this point. having got the stuff all out, is there a kind of logic to how you pieced together something like this, or is it almost a random exercise for the first few days and weeks? i guess it's like being first on the scene in a traffic accident. immediate first aid before you do the reconstructive surgery. our colleagues have taken the lead with this with assistance from french conservators from paris, and what they're doing very slowly is working out which glass shard belongs to which glass vessel and which shard is from which display case, to work out first of all what bits should go together before they actually put them together later on. it reminds me of an exercise they've conducted in germany with records of the former stasi, where they were all shredded whe

institute for near east process -- policy and connect them to the broader international and historical context. finally, we will hear from wilson center's phone ambassador jim jeffries, chair of the middle east program. marissa, back to you to get this truly intriguing conversation underway. >> thank you very much, ambassador green, for your opening remarks. before i pass the floor over, i would like to remind everyone that at any time during the webcast, you may submit a question by tagging@wilson centerwp or you can use wilson center.org. >> thank you. ambassador jeffrey come investor green, mr. makovsky, it's a pleasure to be here with all of these people and it's quite an honor for me and it's good to see you all again. i'm not planning on making big news today. i think i will give you a basic idea of what the administration's approach was which i don't think will be a lot of news to you but maybe to some of the viewers here, it will be worthwhile. basically, stop the dying, stabilize the situation, get humanitarian assistance in, and then look for ways we can actually start putting in place the conditions and parameters to be able to start talking about a two state solution again.