mike huckabee won and what was the success. d you tried to figure out what happened during the iowa caucus here. on the map behind us you'll see huckabee was the winner, and behind him was mitt romney. so we took the state and broke it down based on county. the counties that huckabee won is the deep red here in the middle. what romney did, he won the corners. romney won everything on the west side, which tends to be a little more conservative. and he won everything on the east side, all of these counties here, which tends to be a little more liberal. so he book-ended the states. one exception in this entire map from three years ago and this county here is jefferson county. ron paul won jefferson county, he's going to make up some ground this year or somebody, say like rick santorum, look to see their votes coming from the middle part of the state. on the issues, we've been talking about jobs for three and a half years. they are very important, everywhere, and as well as in the state of iowa. and this is what we find interesting.

mike huckabee won and what was the success. d you tried to figure out what happened during the iowa caucus here. on the map behind us you'll see huckabee was the winner, and behind him was mitt romney. so we took the state and broke it down based on county. the counties that huckabee won is the deep red here in the middle. what romney did, he won the corners. romney won everything on the west side, which tends to be a little more conservative. and he won everything on the east side, all of these counties here, which tends to be a little more liberal. so he book-ended the states. one exception in this entire map from three years ago and this county here is jefferson county. ron paul won jefferson county, he's going to make up some ground this year or somebody, say like rick santorum, look to see their votes coming from the middle part of the state. on the issues, we've been talking about jobs for three and a half years. they are very important, everywhere, and as well as in the state of iowa. and this is what we find interesting.

crushed by mike huckabee. >> crushed by mike huckabee. that was the key to mike huckabee's success.vangelicals agreed on one candidate. that was mike huckabee. and that gave him the iowa caucuses. it gave him his victory. didn't give him the nomination as we pointed out tonight. but so important to his win and so important to romney's loss. he cannot count on evangelicals this time around. >> now, okay. when you look at this, one thing you can say if you look back at 2008, mitt romney did very well with people who didn't identify themselves as evangelicals as indeed he appears to be doing this time around. >> exactly. >> but -- >> he is a mormon. remember that. that's a problem. >> maybe he is playing that a little bit differently this time. >> well, i mean, take a look at this field. you see that the support of evangelical christians, santorum does very well. he's been endorsed by two leading evangelicals. but they don't have one horse this time. there is no mike huckabee. and that's good for mitt romney. so they're split. santorum does very well. paul, surprisingly, i think, does

crushed by mike huckabee. >> crushed by mike huckabee. that was the key to mike huckabee's success.candidate. that was mike huckabee. and that gave him the iowa caucuses. it gave him his victory. didn't give him the nomination as we pointed out tonight. but so important to his win and so important to romney's loss. he cannot count on evangelicals this time around. >> now, okay. when you look at this, one thing you can say if you look back at 2008, mitt romney did very well with people who didn't identify themselves as evangelicals as indeed he appears to be doing this time around. >> exactly. >> but -- >> he is a mormon. remember that. that's a problem. >> maybe he is playing that a little bit differently this time. >> well, i mean, take a look at this field. you see that the support of evangelical christians, santorum does very well. he's been endorsed by two leading evangelicals. but they don't have one horse this time. there is no mike huckabee. and that's good for mitt romney. so they're split. santorum does very well. paul, surprisingly, i think, does well with evangelicals. th

i think you would have to say mike huckabee. wouldn't you say mike huckabee brought out the evangelical voters. now they're not a solid block. call. keys have endorsed rick santorum. they're the kind of wind at his back. but we don't know wlor they're going to eventually say thank you, we have one horse to ride. and that's what rick santorum wants but so far that hasn't been the case. >> and you do have i'll call him an older guard, not country club but a traditional chamber of commerce moderate pragmatic conservative republican. that was the romney vote. he had the edges in the last election. romney could get this number and win the state. >> that's a lot like the number he seem to be getting in the national polls. that's been his number. 25%, 27%. cannot seem to get above it. doesn't go much below it. i think they are counting on getting those voters. again, the question is, will that number be enough to win? here's what we dope know. the darker the green is where you have a higher level of people in that part of the state. th

i'm catholic and i was campaign manager for mike huckabee. it never was an issue. they don't dig that deep. i think it is really more than that. evangelical voters. do they vote pro-life issues and pro-family issues? sure. but this year it's about jobs. i think if you get really deep into the polling of the evangelical voters i think the number one issue is that certainly it is going to be abortion for some but a lot of them it's a job, about the economy. that is going to be the number one issue forth going. you can't just talk to evangelicals about value issues like abortion and marriage and stuff like that. you have to talk about jobs and how we'll get this country back to work again. that is the challenge for any candidate whether going after the evangelical vote or another group segment out there. >> chip, what is your take on mitt romney right now? he obviously isn't running away with it and has been down this road before. he got 30,000 votes last -- in 2008 against your guy who got 40,000. what do you make of his performance so far? >> well, to be honest, i'm

taking votes in the christian bible belt from mike huckabee cost mike huckabee. if mike huckabee won south carolina in 2008, most likely john mccain would not have been the nominee. >> all right. thank you very much, john. we're just hearing that the gingrich ton hall is wrapping up and we've been showing live pictures of that. when you look at this election, gingrich, santorum, we can look at history and it shows us something. but this election really is a bit different, especially with the tea party influence and with the evangelical different. economy, jobs, what have you. >> no question about that. john mccain got beat pretty badly in the last election. the republican party is trying to figure out not just who do we want but who do we want to be? there's the mainline pragmatic conservative wing of the republican party. that's romney's hope. we know the evangelicals here in south carolina, we saw them here. tea party is very powerful and influential in 2010 but not so much in iowa last night. will they be as important to the republican party michele bachmann d

mike huckabee was orange in iowa. rick santorum is the christian conservative, you don't find evangelicals in the state of new hampshire. ind pent independents can vote. rick santorum very smart tonight. focused on blue collar economics, not so much the cultural issues. can he make an end road on the economy? newt gingrich also has a lot to prove. he has one week to prove he has staying power if he comes in behind ron paul and behind mitt romney and conceivably, behind rick santorum. so gingrich has a lot to prove here. santorum has a lot to prove here. ron paul had 10% in iowa four years ago. he built it up over 20%. 8% in new hampshire for ron paul, four years ago, a big test to see whether he can grow. and then state number three in the republican process is a state that is decisive. delegates matter if this goes on for weeks and weeks. sometimes, momentum decides the nomination. if somebody can win two out of the first three or three out of the first three, it can end quickly. you get into south carolina by the or

mike huckabee.iowa caucuses. >> with mike huckabee don't some people end up taking the politics and at least making a play? >> i think the issue positions of the paul base are not reconcilable with main stream republican orthodoxy and there is no way to reconcile them. i think the danger for republicans is that ron paul would run as an independent candidate. i think the reason he won't do that is because of his son senator rand paul. and i think that if he were to run as an independent, hand the election to president obama, there would be devastating political consequences and retribution on senator rand paul. i don't think he would do that to his son. >> so he wins iowa tonight and the republican response is everybody who voted for ron paul for the majority winner tonight in iowa go vote for obama? >> i think that there is a view, conventional wisdom view that a national security issues that the republican party is monolithic. i think ron paul points out after a decade of twar is not. there is a st

frankly, mike huckabee -- rick santorum might be mini huckabee at this point.o in 2008 we have the county-by-county map here. what was interesting, jeff, is essentially iowa's coasts, if you will, the dubuque media market and the council bluffs -- the omaha media market won by mitt romney. basically the entire center of the state won by mike huckabee. explain why that was the case. >> it was the case actually because of -- governor romney sent a lot of time in both of those and the eastern part of iowa, dubuque to the quad cities is a higher population region and generally more moderate republicans live on that side of iowa. on the other side of iowa, he won a lot of the conservative counties because he spent a lot of time and energy there. that was because of his organizing. mike huckabee didn't have the organizing strength there. but the big difference this time around, i look for a stronger performance from mitt romney in the center of iowa, here in des moines in polk county because there's not been this relentless barrage after tof attacks again by conserva

that was mike huckabee. and i don't think anybody has grabbed that mantle. >> i would say the tenor of the electorate has changed dramatically from four years. it's much darker. much more pessimistic. maybe they're reacting the that. as a political analysis, being optimistic is rarely a bad thing. >> woodruff: michele bachmann did win the iowa straw poll some months ago. she was on the rise. are the polls showing, david, her support has just all bull disappeared. yet she's been out there. hit all 99 counties. what happened to her campaign? >> people looked at her and for whatever reason there was no big event but they decided not quite ready to be president. she's had some very humbling events where very few people have showed up. there's still the press gang around here. the crucial thing is she said she's going on. the lesson of newt gingrich's career is never drop out. because you never know what's going to happen. that also is good for mitt romney because all the anti-romneys will still be around apparen

>> i was here four years ago in iowa, to help mike huckabee, and we really think a lot of him. and i guess it's a -- >> reporter: i notice that a lot of the huckabee forces have come out to support rick santorum this time around. so some of that huckabee wave is perhaps going in his direction tonight. i would just ask real quick, jeremy masterson, i talked to you about this a little while ago, another santorum supporter, you were picking up on this, the fact that he's been to all of these counties. that means something to you as an iowan. >> it does. it means he's more -- he's not about the polls, he's about the people. and it's about taking the time to go around and talk to the people and find out what's really important. and not only that, but sticking to the conservative values, like he says. you know, we shouldn't settle on a candidate, but really choose one that represents the best value and i agree with -- i'm sorry -- >> reporter: with jim bob there. >> yeah, and just the fact that he is about family values. he's been supported by jim bob, sarah palin, a lot of people tha

mike huckabee. that is the question this year. does one candidate, does one candidate consolidate in the end the evangelical vote? i'm going to keep that screen just like that. take this up. let's come forward to 2012. we have no votes yet. here are your candidates. jon huntsman is not really playing in iowa. he's waiting for new hampshire. if you go through the candidates, michele bachmann wants that evangelical vote. newt gingrich needs a slice. rick perry campaigning hard for the evangelical vote. right now gloria and erin just mentioned the santorum surge. mitt romney gets a piece of it. ron paul surprisingly gets a pretty good piece of the evangelical vote. look at these candidates. she needs it, he needs, he needs it. he needs it if he's going to pull up a surprise win. go back to the map. that's the question for 2012. does one candidate, a santorum, perry, bachmann, can they win here in the middle part of the state? mike huckabee one with just 356 votes. you say that's not many. you come into the caucus setting, you win all

mike huckabee won with 366 votes. that's not many but if you come into the caucus setting, you win all these small towns and you offset the romney win. does one candidate get these? if the evangelical vote is split and he can match this and grow a little bit, that might be enough to win. there is a lonely color right down here. who is that? in 2008, ron paul one just one county, tiny jefferson county. we know he is stronger this time. the question is, as he gets more votes, can he not just have more votes but fill in more of the map by winning counties. >> those are 2008 numbers, the final numbers in iowa. i am sure rick santorum is looking at mike huckabee's 35% saying, i can do that. >> if you can get to that, you will most likely win the state. huckabee and romney, right there, 60% of the vote between two candidates. if you have it that time, the question will be, who gets the third ticket out. this is what his campaign is dreaming about. can they match huckabee. he surged early. we knew at this point four years ag

mike huckabee supported the dream act.immigration and particularly the dream act? what does it mean for the hispanic vote. >> i got a chance to sit down with mitt romney a couple of days ago and tried to press him on this and however the republican nominee is going to get the hispanic voters. i saw a poll a couple of weeks ago showed romney losing to obama by 40% among hispanics. i tried to press him how are you going to change perspectives? states like florida and colorado and crucial elections. he reverted the talking point it seems to me. we're not worried about polls right now. hispanic voters care about the same issues that nonhispanic voters care about. it seems he hasn't thought it out and i think that is a huge issue as you're eluding to, in the general. >> do you have any idea in your own mind how this thing is going to come out here? i can't figure out what is going to happen. >> i can make something up and come up with a prediction. >> i think iowa is important because it is first, but i'm not sure we are going

the momentum candidate was mike huckabee. this time at 37%, even higher. is that potentially even better for the candidate rick santorum? >> the top three candidates among the early birds, among the people coming early we've been able to poll in our entrance polling, mitt romney, ron paul and rick santorum. really no surprises there. what's interesting to see if the early birds is what are the main issues driving them to the polls, economic issues or social issues. by that we can tell which way they're breaking. >> there is one vissurprise. rick santorum. but iowa is a melting pot of all kinds of issues just like every state is. not one issue that people become an early bird or not. it could be social issues, the tea party. iowa tends towards social issues than economic issues, but certainly all of the above that makes up the stew. >> the economy in iowa and unemployment is lower compared to the national average. social issues have played more of a role certainly for rick santorum. he's publicly said, i'm about more than just the narrow issue of jobs. >> r

the question is, is se like mike huckabee? there are a whole new bunch of people that are coming to join rick santorum. doesn't seem to be the evidence of that in the polls. the number of evangelicals is down since last time. he may have a surge at the end but he's not creating a whole new wave of santorum voters. >> bob, one thing that is worth elaborating on about that point that john just made about evangelicals. the turnout in the polling from evangelicals is about half of what it was in the turnout of '08. think about that. 60% of the republican caucus goers in 2008 described themselves as born again or evangelical. this time it's about 30%. why is that? well, there may be a polling error. also the possibility that evangelicals have been divided. their leadership has been divided. in addition, we may be putting too much attention on social conservatives. they're not going to be as big a deal this time as they were in 2008. it's a wild card. we'll have to see on caucus night. >> schieffer: let me go to norah o'donnell here

sounding like mike huckabee did in 2008. have you to remember that rick santorum was one of the first people who fully and in an unqualified way, embraced paul ryan's plan, when other candidates were not doing that, that puts him pretty far on the right in entitlement reform and economic reform. i am not sure he will run that way because i think that he wants to frame the debate as a choice between the rhinos or the establishment on the one hand and the conservatives on the other hand. this is where,h if he could get endorsements from jim demint from tea party favorites, that could help him frame the debate. >> we are now getting the two-minute warning from the republicans at the convention center. we do expect an official announcement now, within the next two minutes, officially as to the winner. we expect. stay tuned for that. >> iowa chairman matt strom to make the announcement, there at the podium. >> i'm an adviser to iowa republican chairman matt strom. we are having a two-minute warning on an announcement, want to tha

sounding like mike huckabee did in 2008.ave you to remember that rick santorum was one of the first people who fully and in an unqualified way, embraced paul ryan's plan, when other candidates were not doing that, that puts him pretty far on the right in entitlement reform and economic reform. i am not sure he will run that way because i think that he wants to frame the debate as a choice between the rhinos or the establishment on the one hand and the conservatives on the other hand. this is where,h if he could get endorsements from jim demint from tea party favorites, that could help him frame the debate. >> we are now getting the two-minute warning from the republicans at the convention center. we do expect an official announcement now, within the next two minutes, officially as to the winner. we expect. stay tuned for that. >> iowa chairman matt strom to make the announcement, there at the podium. >> i'm an adviser to iowa republican chairman matt strom. we are having a two-minute warning on an announcement, want to thank

governor mike huckabee and governor sarah palin are here, and, they are holding nothing back. and to these attacks even work? or are they a turn off? frank luntz is here and he has ways to find out what people really think. and, bad english, i mean, really bad english. could it bar someone from holding public office? a county judge thinks so but the battle is just beginning. >>> hello and welcome to "justice",. the aftershocks from thursday's debate are rattling the republican party. >> speaker gingrich said the debate before last night, he said the crowd was not allowed to cheer and he couldn't do so well because the crowd was quiet and last night he said the crowd was too loud, you snow know, li goldilocks, porridge is too hot, too cold, i'll make sure we tell the truth of barack obama and get him out of the white house. >> jeanine: joining me, governor mike huckabee. welcome. >> great to be back. >> jeanine: what a week it was, newt gingrich in lead to and by thursday, two days later, mitt romney is ahead and pulling away. what happened? >> this has been the most amazing el