you see this in mike kaufman's seat, barbara comstock outside of the d.c. suburbs in virginia. these are the places where -- >> you're making a reverse argument of what donald trump jr. was saying. >> i'm saying both. in the rural, redder districts, popularity of the president is a huge plus for republicans and that's big in the senate races in particular because they are concentrated in those big red states but the republican house members running in the more suburban districts have done a terrific job focussing on the issues important to their constituents, building an independent profile, occasionally breaking with the president where it's politically smart and that's why they're well positioned going into these last couple of weeks. >> do you think barbara comstock is going to win? >> yes. >> absolutely not. >> do you really think so? >> yes. >> not a chance. >> you think barbara comstock is going to win? >> she's been a great representative for them. i think the attacks on her opponent have been effective. y i think there's a chance she can win. >> she's down double digits

you look at mike kaufman in suburban denver district, and while this may excite the president's base this is going to be a line we are going to be hearing a lot at his 11 rallies over the next several days. these comments are a problem for these vulnerable republicans. >> john avalon, you are the last remaining independent in the world -- >> oh, my. >> i mean that admiringly. but it was written, what's not clear is whether we have solved our problem with independent voters, and he's talking about this, he's talking about what he has seen from the president the last few days. you can tell he's not sure this is the closing mess edge that could help republicans. >> it's what the president is all about, and because he narrowly got across the finish line in '16 by playing to the base, he thinks he can do it again. >> this is why i called you a fetishist. >> i appreciate that. i married to a republican for what its worth. this message is not intended to play on swing voters, and this is not a message that resinates among suburban voters, and in fact it's the opposite because it's the harsh

in suburbs where president trump is unpopular including representatives kevin yoder of kansas, mike kaufman of colorado and mike buishop. on wednesday, they cut loose of martha mcsally who left to run for senate. joining us now, national political reporter from axios jonathan swan and national political correspondent for nbc news and msnbc and author of the book "the red and the blue," the 1990s and the birth of political tribalism. steve kornacki, the rage is with us. so, joe, a lot of great guests to talk about what is going on with republicans. >> and here we are. found a time of cross currents in american politics. and steve kornacki, it seems right now -- and i do mean right now because in a week the polls are sure to change. so right now, it seems to be a tale of two elections. you've got the senate race that's have tightened up. republicans have taken the lead in places like tennessee and texas comfortably. but then you had house members who didn't talk that much about kavanaugh in competitive districts because they were trying to win suburban voters over. there it seems like the gop