we are joined by mike khouw, tony zhang and carter worth. the market's closing another wild week of trading in the green, but check out the real winner, who else, but amazon jumping more than 16% this week adding billions in market cap making investors money and adding a few billion to jeff bezos' bottom line, as well, and shopping amid the pandemic mike khouw, this will be a long term winner and what's your take on amazon and the big move we saw this week? >> yeah, so let me start with the first question, is it going to be a long-term winner and the answer to that is clearly that it is going to be. the trend was already moving in that direction if we think about it i think most people for years have thought that the day will come when the gross revenues when a company like amazon will receive those of walmart unless walmart happens to pick up their online presence and that's inevitable, but i will say that this seems a little bit stretched to me. we've seen a lot of people chasing the stocks that they think will be winners in this and maybe

mike khouw, let's stick with you. let's talk about dollar general.d as a recession play and what do you think the play here might be >> okay. >> so this is an interesting situation, dollar general because this is one of the stocks, i think, that carter had been discussing and had mentioned that he thought it was probably a defensive type of a play in this situation, and you know, i'm sort sort of inclined to agree with that i think the trade that we should use here is a call spread reversal was the june 185, call for risk reversal. so it's in the 165, 185 call spread and selling the 185 puts to help finance that in this instance, it was trading for very close to even so you would collect 50 cents at the closing price that i was look at you will get participation from 165 to 185 and if the stock should trade lower and i was looking at very close to the lows when the market rolled over and we saw the worst in march of 145. that's basically where the stock was bottoming out and i think it hit about 140. that's essentially where you would get long the st

options market is betting tomorrow's report could pave the way for a double digit summer surge mike khouwas the action. hi, mike >> hi, melissa so intel traded about two times as many calls as puts today and the options market is implying a move of 6.6% and that compares to the 5.5% that it's averaged over the last eight quarters given the environment we're in and maybe that's a modest increase in anticipated volatility and the trade that i was looking at that i found interesting is the july 50, limited risk reverse and it sold the 50 puts a thousand times and it bought a thousand of the 70-strike calls and collected 80 cents a share to do it in this trade they're checking 1.3% of the current stock price in yield between now and july expiration they'll own it at 50 bucks a share which are modestly higher than the lows and i can understand why you wouldn't want to buy the stock since then. they're getting near-term appreciation and we'll see profits in the stock goes above the higher $70 strike price by july expiration three months from now >> thank you, mike, for that look at the semis su

, via com cbs and if not one of the highest-hit media stock and mike khouw, maybe it's the reason whye options market someone is putting a pretty bullish bet >> yeah, brian i think you're hitting right on it it is probably because the stock has been so hard hit that maybe some people are going in and doing bottom fishing and we did see the average daily call volume on and they were the march 15th calls and consider for a second how much that premium is that's 10% of the current stock price and just to break even the stock would need to be up over 21% by may expiration. that's a little over five weeks from today so that's obviously a big bet and a big, bullish move that is to be expected and take a look at how much the stock has declined and this thing was over 60 bucks a share gag back to 2017 what we're looking at here is a highly volatile stock and betting on a little bit of a rebound and that's not anywhere close to the beginning of this year. >> mike khouw, tough times for via com and cbs. coming up after the break, talking about sport, there is a report out there about baseball.

off its lows and it is now down 3% on the year and options traders are betting it can be a jump mike khouw here from san francisco. mike, take it away procter traded five times their average daily call volume, so close to 37,000 contracts today and right now the options market is implying a move of about 4.4% by the end of the week this is a low-volatility stock and it's implying relatively low moves for procter & gamble the most active contracts were the april 24 weekly and those are the ones that expire a week from tomorrow, the 128-strike call a lot of those calls were trading as part of a package and it was a 128-130 call spread and that gives us a pretty good sense of the range that the options market is expecting for the stock by the close of business next week and that's a move of 5.5% to 7 1/2% for where the stock was trading in the middle of the day today and the stock was up today and we saw it earlier in the week that they are continuing their dividend increases so procter & gamble may be a place of stability and growth for people looking for a safer place to play whether using

this, but right now the current contract and i'll get to options action and i want to bring in mike khouwnown as the options guy and a former oil trader, as well and all of the storage offshore, onshore and your mom's bathtub is pretty much going to be filled up soon. how much worse do you think this oil story could get? >> well, you're hitting right on the important point which is that demand has been hit very, very heavily and you know, there's a limit to how much storage we have available to store crude oil. so i think right now we probably have something in the neighborhood of 460 million barrels plus the strategic petroleum reserve has 700 million in it, but these are big numbers that you're dealing with, when you start having supply surpluses in the neighborhood of 10 million barrels a day or more it becomes a logistical problem and the futures market is in steep contangle and the oil and the near-term future are around 20 bucks as you pointed out and the long-term futures are higher and we saw bearish bets today. the july futures options, for example, we saw a bet that that could d

robinson worldwide could rally 5% or more on the ubs upgrade. >> mike khouw looking at c.h.inson let's bring in dan, and if you're still there, what do you make of the trade and some of these transports and global commerce will go down, and listen, if you want to get something somewhere you will pay a lot of money to make sure critical supply gets to where they need to go. chrw could be a beneficiary of that >> logistics and the reinvestment in logistics will be a real theme that comes out of this crisis, and i also think that the theme that a lot of people are going to be talking about and they were talking about it during the trade war and now they're talking about it with the pandemic is the whole notion of deglobalization and that will change supply chains and it will change logistics routes and i think there's probably a lot of interesting plays that will come out of this as we get into 2021 and basically companies re-think about how they supply themselves and how they supply their customers and that's a big, big theme coming out of this situation. >> guy adami, you hav

down and their numbers are out tomorrow and let's see if there's an options action trade here, mike khouwname that's obviously been moving a great deal on earnings and it's averaged 11% over the last eight reported quarter and it is expecting a bigger move and this stock is more than 20% higher or lower by the end of this week we're outpacing calls and most of that activity was concentrated in the may 4 strike puts and earlier today about 6,000 of those are traded at an average price and that may not sound like a lot and it represents 10% of the $4 stock price and what put buyers are betting on there that would represent $3.60 a share by may expiration and that would test the lows that we saw the first week of april and some bearish activity and people are not that optimistic and we are expecting big moves by the end of the week in bed bath and beyond >> not optimistic, down 32% in the last couple of months and mike khouw, thank you very much. guy adami. you saw that bed, bath & beyond and people predicted paying there and dollar general and those stocks continue to go higher >> dollar ge

minutes and what's the options play here if any for that let's do a little options action with mike khouwyeah, brian so we are taking a look at xle, the energy etf where we saw calls outpacing puts by three to one. most of that activity was in the june 35 calls. those were trading for two and a half dollars and buyers of the calls were betting the etf would be up by 12% or more when the options expire and that would still represent a 45% decline, though, from its 52-week high. >> all right quick options action there with mike khouw thank you very much. >>> all right. coming up, becky quick speaking with none other than bill gates. he has been on the forward curve of this pandemic and he's been warning us about it for years. 'lhe fm tecoelling cnbc? wel arrogas ming up right after this turn on my tv and boom, it's got all my favorite shows right there. i wish my trading platform worked like that. well have you tried thinkorswim? this is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. okay, it's got screeners and watchlists. and you can even see how your predictions might affect t

i'm melissa lee and it is time for a special edition of "options action" and we are joined -- mike khouw, carter worth and tony jang. apple rallying the stock is up now 14% over the last month, but the chart master isn't convinced that will continue so carter, what are the charts telling you? >> well, of course, look, this is a darling as is the case with most of the super cap names. but its behavior since january has been relative. let's look at a few charts what we know is this stock made a low back i january of '18 of $140 and surged to 327 before collapsing with the market. didn't offer any defense, went down just as much as the market. hit a 212 low and closed this week at 283. if you look at the next chart, this is important. if you are defensive or considered defensive, more defensive than proctor, apple sells off 35%. offering no defensive qualities. and now having rebounded 35%, but you're not back to the high of course. that's the nature of percentage draw down and ricochets. final chart, this is a two-panel chart, and this really tells the tale what we see is apple on top, but

mike khouw has the action. hi, mike >> hi there.ch is already trading at 25-year lows and is due to report earnings next week has some options traders making bearish bets a head of that. it traded ten times the average daily put volume and almost all of that volume was concentrated in the weekly 20 strike puts over 80,000 of those ultimately traded for just under 45 cents a contract options traders betting that will fall below the 20 strike price by the premium they paid and that would represent a 20% decline by the end of this week. >> 10% mike, thank you. dan nathan, i don't know if you saw that action or any other action in some of the crude stocks >> yeah. well, when you think about it the risk reward for making those sorts of bets where you might get some adverse financial information about, you know, dividend coverage and that sort of thing makes some sense and you might also see a lot especially with the dividends as fat as they are, you may see people hedging it at this point and i would expect to continue to see that over t

2% today in the options market traders are betting on even bigger losses around the corner and mike khouw has the action. mike >> hi, melissa interestingly enough i have just joined facebook or not interestingly enough last week i might be the last person signing up and right now the options market is implying a move of 6.6% and interestingly, that's less than the 7.7% that the stock has averaged over the last eight quarters and a lot of the opening activity that we saw today was in the weekly 170 strike puts and those are trading for $1.20. buyers are betting that the stock will decline after they report below the 170 struck by the 120 that they paid and that would put the stock below 168.80 tune into the full show friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, the plain truth behind what really happens when someone coughs on an airplane. we have the dirty detail when we come right back.ll my fa able, so you focus only on what you want. okay, it's got screeners and watchlists. and you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks you're interested in. now this is w

year and ongs betters are betting that it could sink apple deeper into the red and let's get to mike khouw with the options action. mike >> hi, melissa the options market right now is implying a move of over 6% when it reports tomorrow and that's larger than just over 5% which is the average of the last eight quarters and although the sentiment was fairly mixed overall today the most active options were the weekly 280 puts, but the middle of this morning about 20 those have traded at just over $3 and they're betting the stock will fall below the 280 strike and probably by that implied move to the down side which suggests they're expecting disappointing results with the price action out of earnings and while the stock is lower on the year year on year, it is up substantially and it's priced probably not that far off of its all-time highs in terms of forward earnings it might be that that they're looking at that the stock is fairly priced here >> pete, do you think we're setting up for disappointment tomorrow >> i think mike might agree with me on this aspect of it and it could be just prote

. >> mike khouw, thank you very much >> guy adami >> closing above 1.50. you know, this goes under the category of be careful what you wish for president trump and the administration want a weaker dollar, you better be careful if we get it, gold is going to continue to go higher, lower interest rates, that wasn't very good, lower oil, that wasn't very good. i think we will gold goes up >> gold goes up. can't say it better than that. y ming up after the break, we'll trto do that with some final thoughts and maybe some final trades we're back right after this. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ (vo) they're adapting to supporto their communities.s. but many need our help. if you're a small business in need, or want to help a local business, go to quickbooks.com/smallbusinesshelp intuit quickbooks. but right now, the world needs all the good that we can do. to all of our employees and everyone working to keep america strong, thank you. >>> welcome back to fast money, everybody, let's get final thoughts and final trades, we'll kick that off with karen >> to do anything, you don't have t

traders are betting the stock could be in for a sizzling rally when the results cross the wire mike khouwhe options action hi, mike >> hi, melissa shake shack earned quite a lot over the last eight quarters and this is a stock that's moved double digits and the market is expecting similar moves when they report next week and the options market is implying a move of 12.5% higher or lower by the end of next week people who are looking at the oc options today might have noted that some of that was adjusting already open positions and where we saw most of the opening activity was actually the regular way, may 56 calls over 1400 of those ended up trading by the end of the day and those were trading at just under $4 and buyers of those calls will rally through the strike by the four bucks they paid that will put them up, two weeks from tomorrow. obviously, the stock is well off of its highs and it has bounced substantially off its lows and they're speculating that it might make a move and getting options at a reasonably fair price if you compare it to how it has moved historically. make sure to

the stock has been crushed this year and the results hit the wire and mike khouw has the options actionike >> hi, melissa so in axp what we saw today it might tick up to the market by the end of the day and after they report tomorrow morning and that's obviously above what we've seen over the past eight quarters and the 84, strike calls and the bare calls and the buyer of those is above $2 and as you pointed out, the stock has been very hard hit and if we take a look back at the 2008 period for axp, we can see that the revenues decline sharply and we can find out something similar is happening than that of the coronavirus impact. >> thanks for that more options action friday is the full show at 5:30 eastern time we have breaking news coming out of washington. let's get to kayla tausche with the story. >> melissa, this $500 billion interim stimulus package has enough votes to pass the house of representatives remember, this bill includes $310 billion to expand the small business loan program. $60 billion of that will go to smaller banking institutions you also have a $60 billion of loans

we go to mike khouw with the action >> starbucks is implying a move of before 6% by the end of the weekrger than the last eight quarters maybe that's not as much of an increase as you may expect in this environment the trade i was looking at was in october, 90.65. someone bought 1300 of those they spent a little over $12 each or $1200 per contract about 1 $1/2 million in premium. buying that is a bet that the stock would run toward that lower strike i would note this is an october foot spread, it has some time to go before expiration this is maybe not only earnings related. the stock is basically unchanged year on year that's pretty good performance all things considered. >> thanks for that, mike tim, are you still an owner of starbucks? >>. >> i am, and i think they're kind of uniquely in the head winds of what's going on with covid. less commuters you have a dynamic here where i think people -- but i think they've got mid single digits. 30,000 stores globally it's one of the -- i think you own it here. how much higher? i'm not sure >> b.k.? >> i think you have a great ceo who understa

. >> mike khouw, thank you very much >> steve grasso.be on tesla and the options stock and should we end subsidies for companies -- >> tesla doesn't make all their stuff in china, but you have his macro point. >> i get his macro point, and i do agree with the macro point and the last sales, 571 and tesla is always about where people are positioning themselves and not about where the reality is so the 100th day is basically at 535. the 50-day is 646 and we're trading somewhere between there and you would have rm to where mike is looking at that $600 level and short interest is pretty high still and tesla is still defying the laws of gravity. >> defying the laws of gravity steve grasso, thank you very much all right. >> coming up, we'll talk about earnings season. believe it or not, it's here and it's going to be very different than any that we have seen in a long time. credit suisse's manny zu plus what executives brought the most of their own stock and we'll bring it to you at the end of every trading week and we'll show you the companie

i'm melissa lee and it is time for a special edition of "options action" and we are joined -- mike khouwng the stock is up now 14% over the last month, but the chart master isn't convinced that will continue so carter, what are the charts telling you? >> well, of course, look, this is a darling as is the case with most of the super cap names. but its behavior since january has been relative. let's look at a few charts what we know is this stock made a low back i