thanks so much the best we can bring and mike marcy, now he's a senior fellow in war studies. i king's college london high by mike lots of talking about b e's our efforts to boost ammunition supplies to ukraine are ahead of this counter offensive. when do you think this can for counter offensive? we'll get going. well, in one sense it's already started. so what we've seen over the last week or 10 days or so, what is called shaping operations. and the idea of those is to confuse the russians and to convince them the attacks going to come from hair ball. and so we've seen stuff in the information space. we've seen those videos statements by ukrainian ministers. and most recently, they've asked for media silence, which is a, you know, a good way of getting the russians anxious. we've also seen some probing attacks, some establishing of a few ukrainian positions which then withdraw. and then last night, we saw surface drones attack. some of the rushing black sea fleet, and so that's the boat, which is a classic move to overload russian decision making. so there, worrying about this