evelyn herrmann is a european economist at bank jerome powell veijer, chair of the us federal reserve. —— mikes jerome powell. evelyn herrmann is a european economist at bank of america and joins us from paris. after this latest fall in uk inflation, we are still some way off the target of 2%. when do you think the target of 2%. when do you think the bank of england is going to make its decision to cut? . the bank of england is going to make its decision to cut?— its decision to cut? , the cutting cle is its decision to cut? , the cutting cycle is actually _ its decision to cut? , the cutting cycle is actually august - its decision to cut? , the cutting cycle is actually august now. - its decision to cut? , the cutting cycle is actually august now. i i its decision to cut? , the cutting i cycle is actually august now. i have to admit that into this week we thought that there was more of a chance that the bank of england might be confirmed to cut around june. if the interest rates had continued to show a better slowdown, if the... inaudible enough to get the bank of england, so we are happy wit

mike faulkender? >> it seems j. powell is late to the party, he was very late in recognizing that inflation was coming in 2021 with biden spending, and took him forever to recognize that anonymous was not transitory and now maybe interests alone are not going to calm markets, and calm consumers with the price increases. we have been talking for a long time, you cannot simultaneously have recessiregulatory policy and fiscal policy, throwing gasoline on a fire then think this j. powell's firehouse can dampen the inflation they are causing, unless and until biden administration switches gears and cuts back on spending including student loan forgiveness, deregulate, particularly in energy, and drill, baby, drill. there is every reasons to believe that inflationary pressure will continue, the market thinking that 6 rates early yee this year never made sense, and thinking we would get rate cuts in first or second quarter this year, and powell talking about 3 rate cuts, it is about time that fed cease there is nothing changing th

mike falkander? >> well, larry it seems like yet again jay powell ask late to the party. he was very late recognizing inflation was coming in 2021 with all of the biden spending that was going on. it took him forever to recognize that inflation was not transitory. he eventually had to retire that word. now he is finally recognizing that maybe interest rates alone are not going to calm markets and calm consumers when it comes to all of these price increases. look, larry you and i have been talking for a long time that you cannot simultaneously have regulatory policy and fiscal policy throwing gasoline on a fire and then think that jerome powell's fire hose can dampen all of the inflation that those things are causing. you know, unless and until the biden administration is going to switch gears, cut back on all the spending including the student loan forgiveness we've talked about, deregulate, particularly in the energy sector. as you said, drill, baby, drill there is every reason to believe inflationary pressures will continue which is why the market thinking six rate cuts

powell himself. a lot of us were working so what did we hear? mikesically, we saw the pce inflation numbers going down still. the speed of the decline was falling off. what howell was saying is we see that and we see the strength of the economy and we are not convinced yet that we are going to be completely on the path to the 2% target. because the economy is strong and we will get friday is jobs report friday, they can wait because they don't need to stimulate the economy is his view. with today's data, that reinforces that. katie: thank you so much and you can see the reaction in the bond market. 10 year treasury yields are currently higher by about zero point 10%. we've a great guest to delve into this. nancytengler is with us. let me start with valuations. it feels like after several months of stocks going straight up, when you want to worry about something, you worry about valuations. goldman had a note today saying that if you put together your worry list, that's probably not something that should be on it. what you think about how expensive th

powell will want serious consensus before he goes for that first cut. do you see that as possible given the rhetoric we have heard from some of the officials an mike: theyns fewer for 2025 as well. the economy seems stronger. we may not see them cut as fast or as much, but powell generally works by consensus. i do not see anybody really lodging any kind of dissent. a couple of the governors may be looking to disagree but lately they -- jonathan: we have the fed decision next week. how big is that? could we get anything new? mike: people want to see something new. they will be looking at jay powell. no one is expecting him to do anything new on policy. they will be looking at the news conference. everybody looked at december. a dovish stance. i'm not sure i see as much of that. now there is thinking that maybe they pivoted the other way. i'm not sure they will see it that way. jonathan: thank you. it is like staring at the sun. positive by one third of 1%. do not stare into the sun. as nowadays said? do not stare at the sunshine? lisa: i wanted to go over to the people wearing two pairs of sunglasses and say, no. jonathan: all the attention on the dollar

charles: mike, has the fed boxed themselves in again? the transitory thing really got under powell'sone of those fomc, q&a sessions and hot the collar, possibly three rate cuts in 2024, the pace of inflation has picked up. i wonder if they're between a rock and a hard place? if we get hotter than expected pce number on friday will the fed have to come out to talk rate hikes? >> i don't think we'll see that from the fed. i still think the next move from the fed is a cut, not a hike. the powell never said we would cut six or several times win the market was expecting at the beginning of the year. charles: no. >> the way he is speaking and laying out what he is looking at, if we see some softer labor market date that, that could open the window. we're four 1/2, almost five months into the year. things have radically changed from the beginning of the year. in three months we could shift again. i'm not, i'm not so concerned what the fed thinks they're going to do or the market thinks what the fed is going to do. it is all data dependent. that is the world we're living in. charles: certain

mike with a potential issue on the bay bridge. >> yeah, we had reports of a wrong-way driver. there was a traffic break recordly called for folks traveling down powell into the berkeley curve. no flashing lights at the toll plaza parking lot, and contra costa county looking great. no problems out of the north bay into the city. along the peninsula, that's great. we will talk about the south bay and a couple things there, coming up. >>> oakland police shot and killed a murder suspect. today in the bay's bob redell joins us live from the scene this morning. are police telling you very much right now, bob? >> reporter: enough that we got a sense of what happened. good morning to you, laura. this shooting took place outside a residence on 16th street. it appears they are waiting for sunlight and the arrival of the corridor. sacramento police located a suspect who committed a murder in their jurisdiction, and so they requested opd to send officers to the scene to help arrest the suspect. opd says when they arrived the suspect came out of a home armed with a gun. oakland police officers fired their weapons and hit the suspect who died here at the scene. n

us with a line the jay powell has to walk, they need to 2% and the inflationary pressures to dial back and many have been seeing a hot economy with interesting jobless claims mikemike: playing into that today. not a whole lot, it was within a range. it's not telling us the market -- the labor market is really falling apart. we will get a good look tomorrow as to where we are. powell has said the same thing now twice, last friday and yesterday, we got two different market reactions which is funny because what we saw on monday when the markets reopened was a gap lower but today, we're seeing stocks back near record highs. jay powell didn't change his view. the fed has said we will not see anything on may 1. how soon afterwards and what will it take? we've got a lot of fed speak coming up that will add to what jay powell has said. we have seven fed speakers today. we have six more tomorrow. if you don't know what the open market committee is thinking, you should by tomorrow night or have a good idea of where we are going. i would imagine it will echo the jay powell who says we are not ready yet but maybe later this year. they will talk about the employment numbers

jonathan: putting back rate cuts on strong economic data, comments from chair powell, and a string of other fed officials. mikelliams yesterday. great work yesterday, as always. what jumped out to you in that conversation? michael: the fact that the fed is anxious to cut rates. the thing that was not said in between those two soundbites was the reason that they think they should cut rates by sometime this year is that real rates are high and they are afraid of lack effects of -- lag effects hitting the economy. they are looking to cut rates if they can, but they're all saying now that we don't have to move yet. we can wait for the data on inflation and make sure that it is going down. lisa: the interview was interesting. i found it most compelling when he said they don't talk about or think about the long-term target. it is a play by you go, feel it out, though bumps in the road, figure out if they are big moms were small bumps. do you take him at his word or do you think they are thinking seriously about our net neutral rate? michael: i think they are thinking about it but on an individual basis. the long run

mike pompeo, michael waltz, congressman from florida, we will talk about all of this. a lot coming up. stay with us, fears of spiking inflation and higher oil prices setting the tone for investors, jay powell's speech at noon time. wall street analysts with expectations and james comber is here to discuss how he and his colleagues are demanding accountability for influence peddling. stay with us. ♪ and did all i could to prevent recurrence. verzenio reduces the risk of recurrence of hr-positive, her2-negative, node-positive, early breast cancer with a high chance of returning as determined by your doctor when added to hormone therapy. diarrhea is common, may be severe, or cause dehydration or infection. at the first sign, call your doctor, start an anti-diarrheal , and drink fluids. before taking verzenio, tell your doctor about any fever, chills, or other signs of infection. verzenio may cause low white blood cell counts, which may cause serious infection that can lead to death. life-threatening lung inflammation can occur. tell your doctor about any new or worsening trouble breathing, cough, or chest pain. serious liver problems can happen. symptoms include fatigue, appetite loss, stomach

powell will handle it. >> yeah, you know, i think as mike said in the 6:00 a.m.ta came in yesterday, just two or three hundredths of 1% lower, it would have rounded exactly to the expectations of the market. it sort of reminded me of what happened after the last fomc meeting. if one of the 19 fomc members had raised by one tick their december estimate, we would have had a median of only two increases, instead of three, probably the market would have collapsed, but because they didn't, it is at 3 and the market soared. it is so hypersensitive, overweight sensitive to these numbers. you know, let me just read right -- two sentences from the bos report that came out yesterday. after reporting, they said -- they said the shelter index increased 5.7% over the last year. accounting for over 60% of the total 12-month increase. other indexes with notable increases include and we talked about this, motor vehicle insurance up 22.2%. well, the shelter and motor vehicle insurance are the two most backward-looking of all the components of the consumer price index. if you take

has jay powell, you think, consulted with him on this? >> highly unlikely. >>> meantime speaker mike johnson's former aid plan encountered resistance. the house caucus said they would not support it without offsets and concessions on geo security. if have voted to oust the speaker after mike gallagher steps down from the house on friday. it will take only two if all democrats vote against him. we'll bring you more on this story from washington later on in the show. >>> federal boeing engineer turned whistle-blower will testify before a congressional committee on the safety of the 787 dreamliner. he spoke to tom cause still le o in an exclusive interview. >> should boeing ground the 787 to check the gap sizes? >> i would say they need to. >> the entire fleet worldwide. >> the entire fleet worldwide needs attention. the attention needed is to check your gaps and make sure you don't have potential for premature failing. >> boeing told c kr newsu -- c news they're quite confident. they say the claims about the 787 are inaccurate. >>> meantime united airlines is reporting a loss, much bet

powell out the presser. could you see the next move being a rate under any circumstances? when that question is asked by someone no doubt like mike mckee, how does he answer it? julian: we have had an overabundance of things. an overabundance of growth. the strength is probably better than anyone could have expected given that you've had soft spots in the rest of the world. and as you address getting better, also, inflation has been hotter than expected. so, the perverse logic of financial markets is, it is entirely possible that the fed chair could lead us to a path where there is a little bit more tightening of financial conditions. answering that question, which ultimately gives you the room, several months hence, to make that rate cut. we think that there could be some volatility on wednesday. lisa: are you saying this is a fed chair that wants to reduce market selloff? julian: i don't think that he would be incredibly unhappy about it. again, this is the conundrum where they have gotten themselves stuck into because of the success of the dovish pivot in a lot of ways warding off a potential downturn. from our point of view,

mike mckee ready to break that down. what's the big focus? >> the headline number. jay powell at. the strength of the labor market, if it starts to get weaker, they would consider cutting sooner. that could be reflected in the unemployment rate. we are seeing all these people coming into the labor force, which affects the unemployment rate more than it affects the headline numbers. jonathan: which are rather be here or in lake como with the mohamed el-erian? where would you rather be? mike: if i were to be honest, i would go to the lake because i could get on the internet and watch the bloomberg numbers. jonathan: this is basically me lobbing to take us to the forum next year. and mean, seriously. lisa: mohamed a el-erian saying it is rough for him because he is there with all the cameras. jonathan: shocking. coming up very shortly, mohamed a el-erian in lake como to break down the jobs report. and jeff rosenberg slumming it at blackrock hq. catch up with them in just a moment. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ok y'all we got 10 orders coming in... big orders! starting