mike: powell is the dove a labor market economist trained under yellen he is very sensitive to gettingd from the left about the job market. if things change and they can change rapidly and if things change in the labor market starts to weaken the insurer, but the way the data is pointing i would stick to that statement there mo is to do nothing until they are forced to. with the election looming they start running out of dates. that is part of the calculus. lisa: many people have conflicting views on how much it matters we see stickiness because of positive economic trends. does this push you further into risk assets and creditor make you more concerned and pullback? mike: we continue to be defensive and credit and continuing to come back. our recent trades have been to continue to reduce exposure to corporate credit and increased exposure to things like mortgaged backed securities where they have been a big laggard relative to corporate credit. they have some technical and valuation dynamics that look appealing. mortgages would outperform corporate credit in my mind in that scenario t

i started escalating, taking this to director mike powell. the dna daniel coats taken you straight to the i g himself trying to make congressional disclosures that went nowhere as if the shredder ate them. and these were 1st hand disclosures the what day ended up doing was sending the officer security as a mafia hit squad to come after me. first they sent a messenger from the director of security himself. be happy, you have a job. oh boy. so they're threatening, you know, they're threatening me like trying to tell me we can take the job away from you. at that point. i go, well, okay, well, the director of security is interested. so i actually wrote back saying, why don't the directors agree and i need to discuss these issues because they're extremely important. well then they actually sent a hit man that the personal security chief who threatened to take my job for me and to take my security plans away from me, which would have been the end, not just of your job at the c, i a, but of any career you might have aspired to in washington. exactly

bring in former top homeland security council mike powell hawaii do you think of chuck schumer, he attackedenate floor and now he's saying to prime minister netanyahu, he attacked pm netanyahu and now wants him to speak before the joint session of congress? what's going on here? >> he's all over his place and at his core, schummer and biden have the democrat party on the strangle hold of the jewish vote isn't going anywhere. they're worried about the pro hamas vote in places like michigan. so that's why you're seeing this kind of, you know, about face back and forth and why hamas can get away with so much. liz: that's scary and under this white house, that's where we're at. former president trump saying i would not have put up with any of this. they're attacking with law fare in the courts and jerry rigged law fare that's weak and constitutionally dubious and white house laying the ground work to let in gaza refugees when this administration is really reckless about this. look at this. >> sharing there's no hamas in infiltration. >> variety of existing path ways to enter the united states.

annmarie: mike, what does this mean when you look at the surfaces, how is the fed looking at that mark we are going to hear from powellit's a bit of arise for goods, which is not goods news for the fed, to make a bad pun, but services continue to rise, up 2.7% over the course of the last year in ppi. that's an issue for the fed. whether they want to cut or not, that is going to depend on what happens down the road. we have got cpi tomorrow and another on the day of the next fed meeting. they will have more information. while they want to cut, they are worried about real rates and what it will do to the economy, if they want to cut or if they feel that they and under these circumstances. an interesting question. here's a good question for figuring out whether the fed wants to and if 50 basis points will make a difference. suppose they cut twice, what does it do to house prices? the housing industry is just -- has just sort of stopped, but prices went up because there is nothing on the market. will prices go up or down? that is something the fed has to try to figure out and there is no good rule to do that. annmarie: es

. >> stephen powell, mike parry, thank you very much. >> thank you for sharing that story, stephen. >uch indeed for the book you've written, because that is an important book. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> the wonderful tatiana sanchez is waiting for us. here she is with you. news . with you. news. >> beth. thank you. the top stories is our veteran mp, diane abbott says she's dismayed by reports suggesting that she's been barred from running as a labour candidate at the general election. she had the whip withdrawn in april last year after she suggested jewish, irish and traveller people experienced prejudice but not racism. she later apologised and withdrew the remarks and an investigation, and concluded in december. but the labour leader says the party's internal process took longer to resolve. scotland's first ministerjohn scotland's first minister john swinney, says she's been treated unfairly , while the prime unfairly, while the prime minister called on labour to be transparent about her position. she was a close ally of former leader jeremy corbyn and she was a close ally of fo

powell last week. sonali: you gracefully laid it out, but what are you watching in particular? mike: how many of them are following his umbrella through the monetary policy world. he basically set it up that they are not going to raise rates. they may not lower rates unless they feel there is a lot more confidence in what's going on. two things. one, anyone disagree about raising rates? and are there people that think there is a better chance that they would lower rates than not? that could whipsaw the markets. the thing we won't have his data to support that. they won't be able to say that this tells me x. we will have to wait until next week when we get cpi. sonali: ira, how do you think through what you called a potential buyers strike? there has been a lot of debate covering wall street like i have been, frustration the treasury didn't take advantage of locking in those rates. to your point, will the market take it? ira: given the deficits from a few years ago when they try to be regular and protectable, their mantra, some said they should have issued even more long-term debt. i

mike, can we talk about your impression of the federal reserve yesterday? you were in the room with chairman powell biggest thing is that the fed is trying to live up to its mandate of employment and price stability, but they don't know what's going to happen and have much less stability on the trend over the next couple of months, so they don't know what they are going to do and jay powell is trying to walk a fine line, not encouraging people into thinking he's raising rates for cutting rates, because they don't want to be caught off side and push the markets one way or another, making the people in the markets unhappy. they want to know what the fed is going to do. it's hard to know if you don't know what they are. jonathan: we want tomorrow's prices, always the way. mike mckee, thank you. 211,000 was the estimate. the previous number was 208,000. right in line with where we were last week, apparently, kind of odd. price action is positive by 0.6%, 0.9% on the nasdaq 100. on the russell, bouncing back. the yield stays lower by a bit, but we are down a basis point on a 10 year. lisa: people really

mike: you know, in the past jay powell has said they get the numbers in advance when they have a meetingcause that might explain why he was so dovish and confident that inflation would continue to fall, even though wall street was having a bit of a heart attack. so, that, and then where does he think inflation is going to go? and why? is it monetary policy pushing inflation down or are we going to see these one-off ski popping up? jonathan: looking forward to the conversation. still with us, jeff rosenberg hand mohamed el-erian. mohammed, what are you looking for from the fed speak going into next week? mohamed: first want to thank mike for reassuring me and thank him also for wearing blue after the mets' big win yesterday. that is really important. look, i would like to hear other federal officials reiterate what chair powell said. lisa: what about you, jeff? is that basically your takeaway too? you are now going to wait to hear what other fed officials are going to say i'm an otherwise it seems like this is the same place we were before? jeff: i think this is going to, you know, kickof

mike: we have a lot of bond investors who -- investors watching this program and listening to this show. why do you think we need lower rates? the argument from jay powell on wednesday was that the economy is fine right now, where it is. and we don't need to do anything. james: it is a good problem to have. the committee has been very, very successful here. the economy is growing at a good pace. the labor market is very strong. today's report, a little softer than last time, it's still a very solid report. -- but still a very solid report. inflation above target, but not nearly as much as it was. and certainly most people think it is going to head back to target as we go forward. so, these are good problems to have. it is mostly about the tactics of how to play this going forward. now, one thing is that inflation by the metrics, i have been talking about there is only 80 points above target, but the policy rate is some 250 basis points above neutral. so, that is a lot, given that you are a relatively small distance from target. that adjustment has to be made at some point. they have to get going at some point, but they want to do that, i think, and the

mike santorelli, your reaction to the fed decision and what we might expect to hear from chair powell? >> clearly the market is taking it as the fed electing not to turn more explicitly hawkish. there was perhaps some idea that it might do that. it just acknowledged the data that happened in the six weeks since the last meeting and of course in the six weeks since the last fed meeting, two-year yields, ten-year yields, they are both up 40 basis points or so, so there has been some market tightening of conditions. the fed wants to preserve optimality, keep its options open as it usually does, and that does mean being data independent. i think that is sort of better than we could've feared perhaps from the market perspective kirk. the issue to me is the bond market has implicitly been testing the economy's tolerance for higher yields as the fed has been testing tolerance for higher short-term rates. so far it's been okay but we are searching for this new equilibrium out there and i do think that in the press conference what the market would like to hear is that powell still thinks you c

flows so all of this says chair powell should be calm, cool, and collected, hold the line on the current strategy but also their commitment to bringing inflation down. >> mike, let me turn to you with a question that is maybe sort of lurking off in the background a little more, maybe than it should be, and that is the runoff of the fed's balance sheet, quantitative tightening, if you will. what do you expect, if anything, for the fed to say about that and for the pace of the reduction in the balance sheet, which is monetary tightening by another means? >> i think that's going to be the big question for today what we're not expecting today are any major surprises. the focus will be, as you said at the top of the hour, be on the rhetoric, on the language and what that portends for the remainder of the year. the one point is that qu quantitative tightening. we think it's probably in the cards in the near term we've seen that this is a fed chair that really likes to telegraph to be transparent and to get ahead of the trend. so i think that would obviously be positive news for market if we see that today. that will be the one material outcome we're waiting for.

powell he says.t th the good, the bad and the, stumbling sure needs a lot of help. biden demanding numerous accommodations like no audienceo and the ability to cut mike's.at nervous nancy pelosi isn't sounding so confident. s >> i would never recommend going on a stage with donald trump. the president has decided that's what he wants to do. i think the format he isthe suggesting is a good one.go odi think you all should have separate town hall meetings with them and challenge them withns a questions about the future and let the public make its decisior >> now rfk junior is vowing to crash the party.de despite biden demanding that no third parties be allowed in the debate, the american people want three candidates on that stage. 69 percent thank rfk junior should be included. the candidate says he qualifies for the debates and chuck todd t seems to think it could help oun joe biden. >> if you've ever spent a lot of time watching robert kennedy junior speaksp, i think if you g joe biden you want him on thatt stage. d they will seese that as an asset. i'm in the minority on this. >> he has a vocal issue, it's an ailment. >> i think it will really help bide