. >> i'm mike santoli. wilfred and sara are off we have futures looking to gains from late last week. we pulled out positive, s&p 500 up 0.5%. in the broad markets continuing that coverage from the sell jot from the january hype. you see what we're pointing to, another half a percent gain. the dow looking a bit stronger up, 170 at this hour the nasdaq which has been the performer both before and after the correction is up, looking at about 18 points right now. taking a look at the ten-year treasury this obviously has been an area of tremendous focus lately in the last month or so although the move last week was very plod defendant. basically going sideways for four weeks, really it's amazing how many people are watching that 3% right now pulling back ever so slightly, 3.86 you wonder if that 3% mark is the watched pot that everybody is waiting for, seeing if it will boil or not the dollar bounced slightly last week up in the dollar index, about 0.5% it's basically fixed mostly down. the yen, you see the dol

veteran market reporter and analyst mike santoli joins us now from the new york stock exchange. mike, welcome. good to have you with us, as always. who is doing the selling today, mike, and what triggered it? >> reporter: allesxcellent ons, tyler. it's not clear what specifically triggered the selling today. really, it w not about an economic headline, it was not about corporate earnings, it didn't seem to be from political news.ea it wasy follow-through from friday's decline. i think t os is a bit payback for one of the greatest rallies we've seen over several months in a long time. the dow was u 300 points since thanksgiving until a week and a half ago. we've given ovback a little ove 2,000 points fromthat starting this afternoon, you started to see a lot of mechanical hit the mark. it w fairly indiscriminate and seemed to be related to a rise in volatility measure that somehow really threw off a lot of these large funds that had been betting on the markets remaining calm. so, that's what we know for right now. obviously, the major index is down slightly on a year-to-date basis

let's go back to mike santoli.'s recap the massive intraday selloff we saw yesterday the way the market seems to pick up pace on down days and the selling proliferates what was your take on yesterday afternoon and what continues to drive the reasons behind the equity selloff >> i think in the middle of the week, we had a bunch of unconvincing bounces in the market off of the lows, there was not this clarity that those selling waves we saw monday into tuesday were truly exhausted yesterday afternoon there was a capitulation that says we have to get back down to the lows on a trading basis we saw monday and tuesday and see if they hold i think the selling, the nature of it, the rhythm of it was very aggressive, and really indiscriminate it was throwing out babies with bath water, that's the way it happens in the sharp short-term moves. now the question is have we sold enough are we back to a level where fundamental investors might get interested again are stocks oversold enough a lot of folks are saying here or withi

also mike santoli is with us for this hour. here's what you've been waiting for.he look at what happened after those huge declines last night if you were looking for relief this morning, you will not get it yet however, believe it or not, with the dow off 355 points below fair value we're off the worst levels of the morning. earlier this morning it looked like the futures were down by 600 points still you're looking at down 368 after the biggest point decline we've seen in history. yesterday the market was down by almost 1200 points at the end of the-day. t the nasdaq is off by 36. just in case you missed t you probl probably didn't, here's ho

wondering whether we have come too far, too fast on the way back up, the so-called "v" bottom mike santoli is joining us from the stock exchange with that side of the story. >> scott, in line with what you guys are talking about, what josh is taking, would it be the best scenario if we race back up to the old highs looking at the velocity of this come back and the fact that we haven't let up in the last few days makes you wonder if we're going by that traditional playbook i know you guys all understand how it's comical in a way, after you get a big jolt to the market, a correction, everyone's a technician, just like when the hurricanes come in, everyone is a meteorologist. the fundamentals don't move as fast as the prices there's a reason these rules of thumb existed. was it a reflex move responding to oversold conditions right now i do think the s&p is at a level where maybe it will prove whether it's moving too far. it's at a very obvious level, maybe where it should stall out and settle back down it's near last week's highs, all that stuff i do think i can understand why we're not patie

mike santoli takes a a lookt what could test the market next. >> reporter: the stock market's impressive comeback this the st week has been almost enough to make investors forget the shortharp drop that we preceded it. it's now up morehan 2% for the year to date. as encouraging as the rebound habeen investment strategists say there are a few tests ahead of the market that will signal whether stocks are back on stable footing. stocks initily recover one half to 3/4 of the ground lost before faltering again. the s&p 500 is in the zone where it might be expected to stall out if this pattern were going the second test is valuation. the market correction made stocks appear less expensive relative to corporate earnings that are sll growing nisly. during january this year, stocks during this bull market had never been as highly valued when compared to bond yield. if the ten year treasur yield stays near 3% investors need to she they will tolerate it. and finally volatility needs to calm down.af r one of the calmest years on record in 2017 volatility swept the market. and even with the measures

be for "nightly business report," i'm mike santoli. >> joining us to talk more about what might be in store for this market is michael farr, ceo and founder of farr, millon and washin good to see you, michael. >> thank you, sue. nice to see you. >> let's start with where mike left is the bull market broken or just bent in your opinion? >> well, it's certainly bent for 't haved i don't -- i d a sense that it's broken, though this has the stuff that could get us there. certainly, the volatility that we've seen, righ the algorithms that have had these really sharp swings, but i think what we're seeing is this really change of menu for stocks. we have been feasting onin lorest rates for years. now the fed is changing rates and we're now finding our nourishment from capitol hill, from tax cuts and from a whole lot more spending. so it makes sense that this change of diet would be rough for stocks. it could get, i think, a little bit rougher still. this volatility today, up side volatility, 400 points, nobod minds up side volatility. it's down side volatility a breaking that 200-day moving

for "nightly business report" i'm mike santoli. >>> just today, fidelity told clients they can no longer buys ed in leveraged exchange traded funds that bet on the direction of vix fear gauge. the firm says the goal is to protect investors from outside risk. >>> this tumultuous week saw a record $24 billion get are drawn from u.s.to funds. according to lipper the turmoil turned investors away from equities and in favor m ofey market funds which are perceived to be saferhaynes. outflow from efts accounted for most withdrawals. it's possible even more money was pulled out yesterday. >>> speaking of bad weeks it was the worst week for oil in two years. rising production and increase in active rigs and a strong dollar put pressure on crude prices. domestic crude prices fl six raight days, about 10% this week to settle below $60 a barrel for the first time this tar. >>> duries of upheaval it is not unusual for executives to step up and buy stock. we saw ihe during financial crisis when during the darkest hours warren buft poured billions of dollars into goldman sachs and general electric.ot h

mike santoli, thank you. >> kelly, you have a long day. good luck. >> we both do. >> god speed. >> andrew made it. make sure you join us on tuesday. i forgot "squawk on the street" is next ♪ ♪ >>> good morning on a friday good morning and welcome to "squawk on the street. i'm david faber with jim cramer. carl quinn la is in the wtanill winter -- he's at the winter olympics in pyeongchang, south korea. been be doing an amazing job covering so many aspects of that let's take a look at futures as we wrap up this week been a good week for the markets. if you're long, the markets are rebounding dramatically from the lows that we saw made up almost 60, 70% of the losses that we saw in the s&p. european markets have also had what you might expect, a good week also. this morning no exception. green across the board ten-year yield note has been a focus. today didn't care down 2.86. there's a look at wti back above -- back above 60 solidly this morning >> yeah. >> all right let's get to our roadmap this morning. it does start with the market comebac

mike santoli joins us from the nasdaq mike, this has been a very crazy week to watch.its worst week since the middle of the financial crisis back in 2008. >> yeah, becky it's kind of an emotional fragile tape with the state of play right now going into a friday session after you've had this 10% pull back is kind of interesting. i think it's going to be a little bit tentative i'll put a little bit of guidelines up there in terms of what we might be looking at as the market sort of retests the lows that we had earlier in the week for one thing, a lot of people are focused on certain levels of the s&p 500 specifically around 2540 it's basically where the 200-day average is, but also the overnight low in the futures from monday into tuesday was right around that level as well. that's less than 2% down from where we closed yesterday. the bounces in the intraday have been relatively brief all during this week. another thing to watch is a vix spike. what i mean by that is not the vix getting to any certain level but having it retreat pretty sharply from a high so it creates a

and joining us for the hour is mike santoli mike, it's wonderful to see you. were you rooting for the eagles? >> i was leaning towards the eagles >> a green win last night but not the case for the markets take a look at that 666 point decline to see a rebound this morning, you're going to be disappointed to see the dow futures down by over 200 points. decline of 203 points for the dow. a decline of about 14 points for the s&p 500. a decline of 20 points for the nasdaq again, this is after a big decline for the week overall, the dow down by 4.1%. still above where we started this year. but this is the first time we've seen a big selloff like this in fact, if you went all the way back to the last two years back to february 2016, you've seen the s&p 500 rally about 59% without ever seeing a 5% pullback people are going to be asking if today is the day take a look at treasury yields because this has been the big story in moving what's been happening in the bond market we saw this on friday in a better than expected jobs market looking at year over year wages up 2.

mike santoli, thank you. >> kelly, you have a long day.andrew made it. make sure you join us on tuesday. i forgot "squawk on the street" is next ♪ ♪ >>> good morning on a friday good morning and welcome to "squawk on the street. i'm david faber with jim cramer. carl quinn la is in the wtanill winter -- he's at the winter olympics in pyeongchang, south korea. been be doing an amazing job covering so many aspects of that let's take a look at

mike santoli is here it's a good reminder how much we stretch the rubber band. by the way, we're down 875 now on the flash crash day, what were we talking about with the dow? >> this is basically a volatility shock this is -- you're probably going to get a mini crash between what happened last week and today and this is -- this is not people at home panicking this is bloodless mechanical selling by trapped large investors. >> early in the day we were identifying levels, the 50-day moving average and so forth, that needed to be retested, we kept hearing if it falls through that, we have to find a new level these traders are looking for a level where it will hold and catch a bid, right >> exactly also with the vix basically levitating the way it is and the market continuing, you're clearly seeing -- those are two sides of the same effect, which is you have to reduce risk, get down your equity exposures what's interesting about this whole thing, yes, we were overdue for something kind of nasty. some kind of a pullback. yes, it's always more dramatic in the moment t

and mike santoli is with us for the hour looking at u.s.ity futures, they're suggesting a negative open, a decline of 324 points. the s&p lower by 38 points the nasdaq lower by 81 points. there's a time that would look like a lot but considering what we've been through, a move of 1% doesn't seem that volatile here's how yesterday played out on the big board the dow opened down big time before staging a late morning comeback, then it moved tw

mike santoli has joined us good morning to you. >> good morning. >> broad question to start i saw a greatomment yesterday, when we came up through 25,000 on the dow in november time there were comments of momentum behind the market is great but we have to worry about valuations as we fall back down through that level, people are saying it's a buying opportunity. market psychology, human psychology is an amazing thing the valuations are still stretched. >> i think some people are forgetting that. i think we anchored ourselves at those highs to believe there was something that was legitimate there. and there was. between november and late january you had a massive upward revision in 2018 corporate earnings because of the passage of the tax cut law that's what the market is struggling with now, how much to pay for these earnings, and also to reflect on the fact that we priced in a lot of good news through january. investor sentiment got extremely excited about the good news. i think you had to work that off. as we work that off what do you see? we see there's all these extraneous factors cre

fargo at 57 and 30 this morning in the premarket, but i think when you look at the washout that mike santoli was speaking of that we haven't seen yet, friday came pretty damn close though because we had 36 million contracts change hands one of the biggest option turnovers came on friday with the 666 drop. >> buy wells fargo everybody and their mother concerned about the ability to grow because feds are going to cap their assets. >> the financial sector is still not all about wells fargo. yes, it is painful when you look at wells fargo. >> you're not saying buy wells fargo. buy something else. >> why would i go after wells fargo where it sits right now when there are other things -- >> we talked about it last week when we were up in minneapolis with jimmy cramer. could we still hit 55? yes. getting to be the beneficiary that came off the table in there but still says higher rate, they've already made their bets today. >> back to the financial, what about the and exchanges? what about cfe, i.c.e., mastercard these positive fundamentals that everyone keeps high lighting, they k50e7 highlighting

also mike santoli is with us for this hour. here's what you've been waiting for. the look at what happened after those huge declines last night if you were looking for relief this morning, you will not get it yet however, believe it or not, with the dow off 355 points below fair value we're off the worst levels of the morning. earlier this morning it looked like the futures were down by 600 points still you're looking at down 368 after the biggest point decline we've seen in history. yesterday the market was down by almost 1200 points at the end of the-day. t the nasdaq is off by 36. just in case you missed t you probl probably didn't, here's how yesterday's record drop played out. this is a time lapse video of what happened with the dow down 200, down 300, down 400 as you got closer to the end of the day, down 1600 points almost at one point by the end of the session, 1,175 point decline. decline of 4.6%. this is the biggest point drop in history add it up, the dow traveled 5100 points yesterday down 4.6% does not rank in the top 12 or 15 declines we've ever seen

happened with corporate credit guys >> leslie, thank you for more on this, let's bring in our own mike santoli he's with us here at post nine we have the head of derivative management let me ask you this. what's your version of what happened here. was it manipulation or was it a trade that just got too crowded, as nancy davis suggests? >> in my opinion, this is a trade that got too crowded i'll speak to manipulation claims later what i think happened last month is a very small example of what happened on black monday of 1987 black monday of 1987 you had portfolio insurance. these vix products, they were short vix futures. as vix futures rose, they were forced to buy more and they moved the market against themselves to me it's a simple story of, one, too much leverage you had a product that could be wiped out in a single day which is easy from low levels of volatility too much leverage and too low volatility. >> so here's my question, all that being said about this -- the volatility products, is the only reason stocks declined because they're programmed by algorithms or whomever to do this to s

again this morning, as stocks are coming back from that correction low we saw not too long ago mike santolith us to look at some of the sectors leading this recent rally. >> sectors and strategies, david. one of the things a correction and a comeback doo is ki is kin reveal the leadership of the market, test it. once you have that comeback, you see what might be the leadership going ahead. here's an etf i thought we'd highlight under the ticker fv. it basically uses relative strength analysis to pick other etfs in certain sectors that are the leaders. this one happens to be entirely in financials, tech, and industrials. it's outperformed on a one, two-year basis before the correction, also since it's well up toward the highs, has much smaller losses in the broader market. this is essentially a fund meant to find the leadership it seems to be doing a decent job. then of course the soxx, the philly semiconductor etf very familiar in terms of its story about semis leading. this one is done very well it's basically about the same amount down from its highs of january 26th, but it was up so much

. >> thank you >> for more on what is moving the markets, let's bring in bob pisani and mike santolie new york stock exchange. everyone has the same question, where is a bottom? how does the market typically signal that that's anywhere close? >> yeah, where is never answerable in terms of a level, but what does a bottom look like in terms of conditions a lot of people are looking for the same things. one, a washout reading in terms of the number of stocks making new lows the number of stocks, percentage of stocks down 10%, 20% from highs. that's already, really, flashing some of the signs that we are pretty well washed out investor and trader sentiment, getting those plunging to certain levels where you can tell that fear has built up. i think you're also starting to see that, again yesterday afternoon, and today if you look at options, call volumes, and you want these rallies to hold this is how the market reacts. it's emotional, it's fragile you have these waves of selling and buying none of these rallies have been all that impressive in terms otheir ability to stay for an hour tha

with me at post nine, morgan brennan and mike santoli you saw carl and we're going to head to pang chayeongchangn a minutes. we're joined by senior portfolio manager chief equity strategist bob doll bob, you know, we're watching markets this morning sort of bounce around. the s&p 500 actually kind of firmly in the green right now. it has been very strong week following that roughly 10% correction where are we right now >> well, that we bounced i don't think should be any surprise we got the positive technical divergences last week. the surprise is how far and how fast we have bounced it's amazing you can't keep a good thing down, i guess. our view was, you know, 2700 plus or minus 50 s&p 500 points and we're at the upper end of that now so we're going to have to make some decisions here. we're going to have to, i think, pause and do some testing at some point we'll see what that looks like but this rally this week has been pretty amazing. i agree with you >> when you say we have to make some decisions here, what do you mean >> yeah, do we take some money off the table? do we lower beta do we get

. >>> good morning, and welcome to "squawk alley" with me at post nine, and our mike santoli and courtney reagan joining us carl quintanilla is at the olympics in pyeongchang, south korea. we'll go out there in a few minutes. we are awaiting the president set to address yesterday's school shooting in florida, and we will bring you that live when we get it. >>> markets right now well off their session highs as stocks hope to extend their daily winning streak to five we have recovered about 60% or more of the losses let's bring in several guests to join us here brian levit with oppenheimer funds and and evan klein top with charles schwab. is that the tradable bottom, the collection we were waiting for >> i suspect it was generally in line with what has happened over the last 30 years, the times when you've seen interest rates move up. typically, the move in rates is around 80 to 100 basis points. it usually happens around 80 to 100 days and the average correction's around 10%. usually what you see in the 12 months after that are positive returns on market, so i suspect it is the global econ

mike santoli is here the correction low has race the to 3/4 of a percent.shows the bull market is here mike santoli has that story. >> we're not clear we're going to vault over that, but it's clear how the rebound has gone in the speed and the angle of the recovery the rally has been impressive in part because it really was a volatility shock it wasn't a credit event it wasn't about downgrading earnings expectations. you would have to say the rap so far while impressive is not flawless essentially it's a little bit narrower to the run up in january up to those old highs. you've seen good leadership in terms of cyclical sectors. the volatility index has been sticking near the highs. that's not necessarily kind of fatal for this rally, but it definitely shows you the environment is different than that pure up, up and away melt up that we had in january. what does it mean from here? if we go up another 3.5% in the s&p 500, that means we're back to the old highs which was back one month ago yesterday. i think the question then will be what does investor sentime

for more on this market rally, let's bring in bob pisani and mike santoli mike, i'll start off with you because today is kind of an interesting anniversary. it marks the one-month anniversary since the markets melt-up peak but surprisingly, even though the markets went through this bout of volatility, not a lot has changed in terms of the fundamental characteristics of the rally we have seen >> one of the things that's pretty striking about the recovery is the leadership profile in the market has been roughly what it was going into the peak it's not been as broad a rally but definitely been very solid and led by things like financials, technology, industrials. those sectors that in fact were more cyclical oriented and basically say good things about what's happening in the economy. down 3.5% from that all-time high, but up 3% for the s&p 500 for the year to date it seems like the market has found its footing. a little narrower. it's a little more of a selective recovery >> two points. first, we're healing fast. brian mentioned we are almost 80% of the losses have been regained number tw

and mike santoli is with us for the hour looking at u.s. equity futures, they're suggesting a negative open, a decline of 324 points. the s&p lower by 38 points the nasdaq lower by 81 points. there's a time that would look like a lot but considering what we've been through, a move of 1% doesn't seem that volatile here's how yesterday played out on the big board the dow opened down big time before staging a late morning comeback, then it moved between gains and losses for much of the day before surging in the final hour of trading. the dow travelled 5500 points in total when you add up all the moves. with yesterday's rally the dow and nasdaq recovered about half of monday's losses show you what's happening in asia.s generally improved asian markets were mixed, flat hang seng lower by almost 1% shanghai off by 1.2% europe this morning, positive across the board gains of a half percent generally. let's go show you what's going on with the yields which has been so interesting in the wake of that wage data on friday the 30-year is yielding 3.03%

mike santoli joining us now with more on that mike >> yeah, brian normal and healthy, maybe not pleasantthough everybody acknowledges that something like this was overdue. the market was so extended the dow was up 3,000 points from thanksgiving through last weekend. so clearly, we were ready for some kind of a payback it's happening in a more violent way, and i think you have to put it into a context. one is what else were we overdue for besides a 3% or 5% pullback? probably something a little deeper probably who knows if it has to be 10% right now, but something that brings us back to a trend that's a little more sustainable. where basically paying back for the overshoot we got in january. where essentially, you went straight up, and investors got very aggressively exposed to stocks we saw that by many measures i do think right now you can take some comfort in a couple things one is after you have seen one of these very long streaks broken, when you have not had a 3% pullback, we just finished the longest such streak ever last week, it is not typically the end of a bull market the first

, for more on what has been driving the recent volatility and rapid recoveries, let's bring in mike santoli bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. guys, i don't know how you feel about this, mike it feels like every day we sort of peel back a layer of the onion a little bit people have conspiracy theories. now you have this alleged, alleged vix manipulation concept, which the cboe denies do you see it getting more complicated or cleansing itself out? >> i don't know if it's more complicated. i do think that most traders, most investors, have a sense of just not being clear if a lot of that activity, a lot of that noise has been cleared away yet. what's interesting, it's this little quiet rally we had in the last hour. it's almost as if bidders were holding back and saying, look, if this is calm for three hours, if nothing comes out as a bolt from the blue, maybe it makes sense to start bidding because the market has finally today stayed in a relatively narrow range. i'm not sure we're going to get too much clarity on exactly what happened and whether structurally, there are

losses have now been recovered in just the past four days but could the market retest the lows mike santoli rejoining us from the stock exchange with a look at the recovery, and michael, some questioning whether it's all happened too fast? >> his mike no good? >> all right, i think for the second day in a row, folks, we have lost the audio at the new york stock exchange. we'll come back to michael as we can. but meantime, many companies on the road to recovery, but how many have made a full comeback since the markets sold off dominic chu is here, we hope, with the numbers >> yes, he will be >> that doesn't mean certain individual stocks or parts of the market aren't getting close on their own, so let's take a look at some of the ones who have had a nice rally since the lows over the past couple weeks. we looked at the s&p 500, and then found that 93 companies within there are within 5% of their multi-year 52-week, or record high levels 81 of those companies hit 52-week highs just in 2018 alone, and 13 s&p 500 companies have hit their high levels, 52-week or better, just this week alone some

us know thanks so much >> the big recovery we have seen this week, let's talk more about that mike santoli is at the new york stock exchange with more mike >> yeah, michelle. as impressive as this rally has been, and it really has essentially been all you might ask for, if you're a bull in terms of the speed of the rebound and the consistency of it, the fact we have been up every day since last friday. i think we still have some tests ahead of this market here are a few of them one is the level of the indexes themselves right now, the s&p 500 has regained let's say 60% or two thirds or so of the losses that we had in that correction. and it gets the index right up into a zone where it might be a logical place to falter. in past corrections, you often see the market rebound around this amount before some sellers come out and think perhaps we have to settle back a little bit. it also is some key technical levels and also not too far from last week's wednesday high, which was a failed rally a lot of eyes are on this level of 2740, 1250 of the s&p 500 more fundamentally, i think we have to com

two-day losing streak, seeing its best monthly performance since 2015 we're joined by our own mike santolinasdaq c ceo adina friedman >> i wanted to get your take right now coming into this year about the condition of the global capital markets obviously you operate a bunch of exchanges, see a lot of money in motion we came into this year, investors of all sizes, very heavily engaged, very high equity exposures, very high volumes. do you see the possibility after such a low-volatility stretch, any uptick in volatility, have we stress tested our markets enough are we in decent shape with how the markets might be resilient or not >> we did see unusually low volatility in 2017 we're seeing a slight pick-up into 2018. the markets, of course, are incredibly resilient and capable of managing through lots of different market moves but right now what we're seeing generally in the market is overall optimism about macroeconomic factors, the growth in the global economy, and the tax reform creating a lift as well >> this market has gotten some comparison to some of the more overheated market cycles o

i'm david faber along with kelly evans and mike santoli carl quintanilla still on his way to south korea has the day off. you can see after what has been a number of sessions of extreme volatility, i think it's fair to say things have calmed down at least in the first half hour of trading. and that's where our roadmap begins this morning with volatility of course it does reign supreme. stocks seesawing between losses and gains. the roller coaster continuing a bit. we're going to have it covered on all the market action straight ahead. >> plus, big earnings movers disney reporting results and what ceo bob iger told us about the quarter. and snap stunning the street we'll dig through those numbers with the stock up big. >> and steve wynn out as ceo of wynn resorts following allegations of sexual harassment we have those details as well coming up. >>> but let's start with these markets. obviously we've had some jumpy volatility in the last couple days bring in david lebowitz and rebecca patterson to talk about all of this. thanks to you both good to see you. david, obviously markets stabili

thank you very much >> now let's head back downtown to the floor of the ncse with bob pisani and mike santoliw come it's rational according to some when we go up 1,000 points in a week, but it seems irrational when we fall 1,000 points in the exact same timeframe? >> well, brian, i guess it's human nature good things we want to think are genuine and deserved bad things we want to look for a scapegoat, want to say maybe the rules are rigged against us. i also do think that the nature of markets is such that people, they go up a little slower than they come down i think enthusiasm spreads more slowly and less dramatically than panic and fear do. i also think you can't deny in this instance when we're talking about the market going down, an exacerbating factor and a big one was this kind of mechanical foreselling related to these complicated derivative instruments, the volatility trade and all the rest of it it's one thing that stocks that go down, markets that go down a lot in a short period of time, immediately you look around for culprits >> i think we all became behavioral psychologists afte

mike santoli is here. >> it's the weakest sector in a very weak market the sector as a whole down aboutet's take a look at some of the etfs that actually play on this sector xle is the broadest and largest of them all. it is down pretty much about that 3% that we saw the broad market down. this one is dominated by the integrated majors. exxon and chevron together have 40% of the etf exxon is down some 5%. one thing i will note about the xle is this decline has brought the dividend yield up 3% it was above 3% during the oil crash. also, the xop, that's the exploration and production etf, it's basically equal weighted. no stocks in particular dominate that also down 2.9% down 10% on a one-year basis oih, this one dominated by halliburton and slumberge. basically nowhere to hide in the energy space, guys, in particular i think because some of the downstream operations of exxon mobil were the weakest, chemical, petro and refining that's where the see the defensive elements of these stocks it seems like it's a little bit of a purge down 5.5% the xle. flattish on the year. >> it's interesting

. >> look at the retailers this and other topics with mike santoli and bob pisani you have been lookingat the bulls need to see before they embrace the idea that a sturdy low has been put in >> yeah, tyler some of the tests have been passed in the early going today. before the market opened i wassing looing for the s&p 500 to surpass the one-week high we are now above monday's highs, about 1% above what stands out at 2727 is last wednesday's highs which was the highest level after the big break a week ago vix retreating toward 20 we are below it now. that shows you the tension is draining out of the market it's a little bit more back to normal after the expiration today. stocks should be able to absorb the next major move in the bond market which in the early going today didn't seem like it would be the case. right now, stocks seem to be making their peace with treasury ills at these levels you have to say so far so good even though of course you have to be an alert for the idea that we retrace some of the four-day gains. >> i'm encouraged by what we are seeing the most important thing

we'll see you on the close >>> mike santoli is orlando, and top advisers are gathered there to learnbout the latest in wealth management. >> what a perfect time to be doing so with the recent volatility how should investors be approaching the market mike joins us now with ceo of td america, tim hawkey. >> hi. thank you for joining us let's pick up on what bob was talking about the flows into the overall industry, reflected in your business. came into your year, your traders/clients had high exposure to stocks, very active, high asset flows are they equipped to deal with any uptick in voluntarility? is is there a chance this market is getting overheat on that front? >> as you know, we just reported our earnings a few weeks ago we talked about the trade levels we're seeing now, let alone the elevated levels we saw in the fourth quarter so, it's been a -- it's an mazing ride. to your point, there is an enormous amount of new retail money coming into the retail market the story seems to be around the cryptos and as well as the cannabis-related sectors but we are seeing it across the boar

there are buybacks fueling this market comeback right now and what should we think about that mike santoli is still with us and we bring in cnbc contributor kenny, who is on the floor of the stock exchange in the past when we talked about buybacks we complained it was lack of initiative or imagination by a corporate board. couldn't they think of something better to do with that money what do we think now >> i think that argument potentially could still stand. first of all, i think it was overstated they were only putting money into buybacks. there seems to be enough money going around, especially with repatriation going around and tax cut. the pool of cash flows accessible by companies and the repatriated cash leaves money left over for dividends, buybacks and all the rest. i think it's important pointing out that as a value of the percentage of the stock market, we're nowhere near the highs of stock market volume. that shows in the mid-2000s, companies were buying back a much higher percentage of the stock market it's still a relevant factor, about 2.5% market value per year at this pace.

mike santoli, but first dominic chu. >> guys, if you take a look at some of the market's rally we've seen, it's been very strong off the lows we saw during the selloff. not every stock out there has actually participated in the upside as we get back to the record high levels, some stocks have been left behind let's give you an idea of what we're talking about. the s&p 500, within the s&p 500, about 310 of them as of earlier today hit 52-week highs, multiyear highs or record highs some time so far this year the first month and a half or so 70 of those stocks are still down 10% or more some traders call it, you know, bear market territory, correction territory, whatever you want to call it. these stocks have been left behind amongst some of the highlights of the stocks left behind, a transportation company like fedex down 11% from the highs it hit just earlier this year also texas instruments on the technology side down 14% from the highs it set earlier this year exxonmobil, a lot of talk about the energy sector these days given the moves in oil prices, it's after 15% from its highs an

. >> mike santoli mentioned murder on the orient express.n to dig deeper on this one >> i want to give everybody a warning that brian sullivan completely disagreed with the point of this next presentation. he'll have his opportunity afterwards a very fickle relationship in this turmoil between bonds and stocks the rising yields, as you heard from mike and bob, is seen as a top reason for the selloff, but not today. today, they're running in lock step here's the decline in yields and the decline in stocks. yields have fallen off along with stocks. then something of a bounceback, both together. now look at this chart this is why bonds are being blamed for several months, yields crept higher and stocks said i don't care they surged along with them. but at the end of january of january, use your phrase, the marriage was off, they had a split. whatever you want to call it yields shot up, stocks shot down this could be random or could be that the market got spooked by treasury supply from adding spending, higher deficit from there tax cut, and the

. >> guys, thank you so much art cashin and our own mike santoli.ake a quick brk, the dow is down and the s&p is down. stay tuned 're facing 20 billion security events every day. ddos campaigns, ransomware, malware attacks... actually, we just handled all the priority threats. you did that? we did that. really. we analyzed millions of articles and reports. we can identify threats 50% faster. you can do that? we can do that. then do that. can we do that? we can do that. >>> take a look at the markets off session lows but the pain is still deep for the bulls the dow is down by almost 2%, that's a loss of 510 points. s&p 500 down by 1.6% and the nasdaq down by 1.3% on the dow apple really giving it a wallop there down by more than 3% off the back. >> let's check in with what's happening with apple because with this moon that we've seen today hovering just about it right now, apple is now about 10% away from the record highs that hit just back on january 18, you may recall back then the highs we saw about $180 and change for apple shares, right now at 1

mike santoli was talking about this earlier in the week now it's starting to buck up against fundamental issues around the pace of growth, whether or not inflation accelerates and whether or not central banks accelerate faster. to the extent deficit grows and the fed won't be the buyer of bonds, what happens to the cost of servicing u.s. debt, the size of deficits. i think markets are beginning to grapple with that a little bit >> before you step in, mike, just point out, if you hadn't heard, they're still talking in washington about a budget bill that the cbo just scored in the last hour which showed a much larger increase in the deficit if it were to pass this is still a big question whether this thing passes tonight or not. >> without a doubt it's certainly invading the psychology of the market this idea that here we are, full employment and we're still going to be looking at trillion dollar deficits on the other hand, at least today or this week, ron, the bond market is not in any kind of similar state of deep concern about this sure, the yields are at their high on the longer end bu

. >> let's bring in mike santoli, who has more on just how far we had gone and how far we've come back. >> for over a year it's been almost all flow and no ebb no build on a point rick san stelly made earlier. what have we been talking about this market for six months, eight months how abnormally calm it was, ratcheting higher, ignoring headlines and incredibly well behaved and would have these magical rotations. coming into this year, a lot more energy to this advance. we accelerate to the upside. now we're puzzled over what happened to the last 1,000 points of dow upside the same thing happened when it was rising it went up 1,000 points on not a whole lot and to come down 1,000 points with yields being the proximate cause. look at the chart of the vix this goes back two years this is a tremendous downtrend you don't see historic low levels the vast majority of the time the vix traded below ten is last half of last year you see this spike here. it looks like the other ones this is late 2016, right around the election, right before the election what it really tells you is not so much t

mike santoli, got nothing for valentine's day on. >> it was more important to match becky. >> thank youd, as you know. >> so is he. >> so are you so -- >> yeah. >> i don't get that. >> just aesthetics >> yes stocks hit this three-day rebound. i actually think that that's why we should do a report card on them and rate this rebound and see where we're at what happens from here for it to be a little more convincing that last week might have had the lows obviously we have about 45%, little bit less than half the total losses experienced from the january 26 high back to last friday's interday lows that's pretty good i think people feel as if that's a decent little cushion. not dispositive at this point. sector leadership is encouraging. consumer discretionary has out performed before and after so it looks like the cyclical story is still intact based on the message of the markets the credit markets have stayed firm they did not get at all upset about the equity market correction so that's all encouraging that there's not a big bad economic message. what is it we need to see for it to be a l

mike santoli joins us right now with more.ss everybody's trying to figure out, does this mean we're out of the woods >> was that enough pain for the short term can the market get its legs under it i think this is the kind of activity you'd expect. it brings us to an interesting moment exactly two months ago today, december 13th, was the first time the s&p hit today's level on the up side it has made a round trip in these two months that's a nice little tidy way of looking at before and after. so within a few points of the s&p 500 is where we're going to open where it was on december 13th, 2662 that was before the tax cut law passed, of course, so earnings have been ramped up expected for 2018 from 146 for the s&p 500 to 157 bringing down the pe multiple as a lot of people have pointed out from over 18 down below 17. >> that is interesting looking at how much -- >> if you look at the chart, it's a hockey stick. you don't usually see that it's a big step function adjustment but you look at what happens to ten year yields. half a

. >> let me ask you a question about that by the way, mike santoli, thank you for that here's a guy you commi before i think you think this guy is a commi, too. >> i'm only kidding. >> these liberals. >> more socialism, not commun m communism. >> i want to ask you today there is a column i imagine you'll disagree with -- >> walt krugman. >> he's never been right for god's sakes. >> hold on he makes an argument today about the tax cuts and how $6 billion of the tax cuts happily has gone into the pockets of employees in the form of bonuses and higher wages but he makes the point that $170 billion is going into buy backs as opposed to investments in capital spending and other things what do you make of that and what should we do about it >> all right headline home depot is buying $4 billion worth of stock back. guess what for the last ten years we've been buying back $4 billion worth of stock it's -- when you see it as an incident, isolated, that that's the correlation. look, if paul krugman didn't have the times, nobody would give a hoot about what he says he's been wrong. he's been wrong

santoli here? >> yes i agree with mike.ultimately this comes down to valuation, and the two problems that the market had from last august until two weeks ago was that it ignored signals from the bond market, and it actually made me think a little bit this is starting to look like '87 the other part was obviously we had a big earnings boost from the tax cut but the market rallied well it rallied well beyond that. you know, the s&p was 450 points but 200 points was justified by the earnings gains and the rest was multiple expansion at a time when multiples were already super, super high. the other part, of course, bond yields went up 80 basis points, 85 basis points and the market ignored it we have four things going for us the stock market is listening to the bond market which averts i think an '87 repeat. two, we've given back 2 pe points so that extra froth in the market since last august is gone c, earnings of course are a really good story and probably will continue to be and, d, i think the bond market has largely done