mike santoli looking at the big picture. mike >> yeah, sara, dial it back about six excesses this is the sixth session of this trade-related freakout the market's been in i wanted to highlight one as peblth of it, which you guys have talked about, which is the intraday rally attempts that we've had just about every day you see back even last monday these are the end of days. you've tended to have a low early in the day it didn't look like we were going to stick to that today maybe it's only a weak version of it. but you see today we hit this low just a little while ago. interpretation here is most of the down side damage has happened in the overnight session. the stock futures get sold very hard into the u.s. open. and you've had this gap effect and then on a net basis over the course of a day you do get a bit of a dip coming into the market. does that meanit's mostly global investors and retail on the sell side? unclear if that's the case and who knows? maybe the buyers are going to get fatigued p you have to get up the nex

let's head down to mike santoli for another read on retail mike >> yes, wilf i actually have a couplef different ways to slice the retail sector here we have two different etfs the rth in blue. the xrt in orange. and the middle in green is the s&p 500 just for expencomparisos sake why the divergence with the rth outperforming so much? it's market cap weighted more than 20% in amazon. another 20% in home depot and walmart. so essentially it is skewed toward the mega scale winners and disruptors within retail the xrt, equal weighted. basically spread all across traditional retail lots of smaller names, lots of chain stores and malls that have been muscled aside by the big guys and by amazon that basically tells you the diverging fortunes of the different parts of retail. and it's also why i think the xrt and other traditional physical retail benchmark have lost their ability to tell you how the consumer is doing really because that doesn't fit with a relatively strong consumer that can get walmart's domestic comps up 3% as they were last quarter. >> let's talk more about that. mike, tha

dow's up almost 200 points let's go to mike santoli for a look at what's on today's market dashboard. hi, mike >> hi, sara. we'll start with the technical snapshot also over the course of the show we'll get to the risk kind of indicators as to what kind of market we're in today, risk on or risk off. we'll do a breadth check then get into the depth debate that fed chair powell seemed to raise last night in the remarks. let's look at the technical setup, not with any real rigor in terms of process or prediction but this sets the little shakeout we've had in some perspective i think the most significant thing is the market refused to go below at least for now this 2800 area, which seems to separate it from the upper end of its two-year range and all this slop in here. this right here was last week's high still working up against high levels of the s&p 500 at or about 2,900 we have not seen that i while this bounce perfectly nice the market seems it's on more of a normal footing volatility indx down to 15 today. it seems like the market has kind of broken free of that shock mode it was in

let's get back to mike santoli for more from the market dashboard. hink we've got mike's mike there but we'll get back to him if and when we do in terms of the broader markets all the sectors in the red at the moment on the s&p. absolute levels aren't quite at the lows of the day but it has broadened out with the nasdaq down 1.5%. tech the worst performing sector utilities are now in the red as well all in the red, phil going back to that point you want to get into the safe haven names, broadly, though, for the market do you want to stay back until you see a bit more of a pullback >> what i was saying earlier about the trade deal now being priced out of the market, that's worth about 3% to 5% in my opinion. the market's down about 3% month to date. but here's the deal. i think both sides of this china and u.s. kind of policy maker front have puts underneath the market i think the trump put is certainly there, that if this thing does slip into economics and you start to -- he's not going to let it go that far because that affects the re-election campai

mike santoli has more. >> reporter: the marketwes its resilience towards a rush towards safer stocks and bonds as investors migrate away towards risk. the s&p 500 has managed to hold within about 3% of the recent record high thanks in part to treasury yields falling to 2019 dws. which has much t with the lows and the interest rates being cut to support a vulnerable economy. shares of stocks that act like bonds have been clear leaders. utilities have vastly outperformed industrial and small cap stocks. groups more reliant on a better economy. thisas led some economists to argue that they're sending a less up beat message than would otherwise be a market up some 14% less than five months into the year. investor sentiment similarly ses more subdued than usual after such a strong market recovery. aisurveys of r and professional investors show a sharp drop in optimism and cash has continued to o flow of stock funds at a pretty heavy pace, a sign of further investor caution. low bond yields cndtious investors already braced for bad news could continue to help support stock as a market of a

mike santoli with the market dashboard. bertha coombs at the nasdaq.y on the floor of the nyse >> first let's trade the close with peter what's your take you were bearish last time any less so today? >> no, no less so today. i'm a bit surprised at the resilience of the market i believe the news on the trade war continues to evolve as we'd expect it to now that company specific actions are being taken by the trump administration. i would imagine that a similar tit-for-tat response will evolve from the chinese that hasn't really seemed to affect the market today. a bunch of pmi data coming out from japan and australia a lot more later this week that's been rolling over the global growth story is weak. earnings lackluster, flat at best and the tariff situation trade war between the u.s. and china continues to devolve yet markets seem to be fairly complacent relative to all those risks. >> peter, thanks for that. good to see you. >>> let's send it over to mike santoli for his next market dashboard stocks >> often on a day when the overall market is down be

mike santoli has more on the market's recent decline and what might come next. >> the stock market'saye malaan so far be viewed as a normal pull back after a very ourongmonth rally. a routine reset in an ongoing bull market and the ongoing fragility of the cycle carried the rif that the downturn might deepen into a more serious correcon. >> the s&p 500 index was down 5% from a record high at its worst this mon and it was coming as the trade frictions grew more intense. it has more and this data weakness is pretty typical. even after this drop the market remains up more than 12% and that's ath mor respectable gain after a 6% decline in 2018 and yet the tariff hikes and disruptions are at a delicate point as the tax cut had a 3% growth rate last year and the european indicators have remained sluggiss and t complicated the consensus projection of a rebound in high single-digit percentage growth in the second half of 2019. the second half of this year begins in just over a mon after all. the treasury bond market reflects this tension and the ten-year yield sinking to an 18-month low this

good to see you both. >> thank you. >> sarah,ou as heard mike santoli talking about that. do you see the market becoming more defensi t? t where you would be putting money to work right now, do you think? >> as you look at multiples on consumer staples and the stocks th have recovered quite nicely it wasn't just about the december quarter and the defense stocks were having a hardrime all yast year. so i think that you're starting to see people position themselves more defensively and people are looking at places where there's more u.s. exposure. >> mark, one of the places that they are getting defensive is by moving into the bond market. how much more of thisove do you see, and if you're a longer term investor, would you go out as far, or would you be shorter on the yield curve. so i've been saying for quite a while that yields were going down. the 800-pound gorilla in the room is the fed and the word is an about a face a 180-degree term after the meeting and the fed's next move will be because of the chinese, but i call it the game of thrones between the two countries. th

from peter, laura, meghan, todd, and mike santoli mike, it's been a good week for certain stocks in the can be repeated. i guess the retail sales number was the outlier when it comes to the u.s. data. >> retail sales obviously down industrial production not great either consumer sentiment number that was reported today was way off the charts to the up side. it seems like you have the makings for these companies having a pretty good run any environment where walmart can have domestic comp sales growth 3.4%, obviously there was hopefully you would think enough to go around the question was whether the market would foeblths on that as opposed to focusing on vulnerability to further china tariff measures and all the rest of it. it's interesting how even people who like cyclical plays are on the domestic economy it's not retail so much people are going toward it seems like there's a lot of noise. >> what do you think would be more important with some of these retail names reporting next week? what the read-through is in terms of the data, the consumer in the u.s. or what the potential cost p

let's send it over to mike santoli's for today's market dashboard. mike >> thank you very much i'm going to be taking a look at what i'm calling re-emerging markets. the emerging markets trade this week a couple of groups performing relative to one another. and the market tale of the tape just a snapshot of after this tough week where we sit in terms of the market's position and then transitory story. buried a little bit today as we got some inflation data this morning. we're going to take a look inside of that first emerging markets, this is a one-week chart of the s&p 500 against the eem, the big emerging markets etf interesting dynamic. you have the s&p on track for 2 1/2% loss. emerging markets up 2% and today widening out that performance gap. it's very interesting. there's a lot of explanations for it one of which is is emerging markets really took their punishment earlier so if you look at a one-month chart you see it's really more of a catch-up trade or a convergence trade between the u.s. market and emerging markets. that's one explanation an

let's bring back mike santoli. dashboard of the day saving the best for last this one's for you, sara taking a look at some currency interactions in particular in emerging markets stock this is a one-year chart of the u.s. dollar index along with the eem emerging markets etf obviously emerging market stocks a lot more volatile than the dollar index but what's interesting is the way they usually relate to one another. for example, when the dollar's up, typically it's going to coincide with emerging markets going down it's not a perfect relationship but a general tendency here. the dollar peaked for a little while. it allowed emerging markets to rise a little bit. and here again as the dollar's making new highs you did see that sell off along with all global markets what's notable is in the last two days the emerging markets etf has been up even as the dollar has stayed clipped to new relative highs too you see this little rise here as the dollar goes up why is that? sara's going to have to actually answer the questi

mike santoli with his market dashboard.oombs at the nasdaq with the movers seema mody at the nyse first let's trade the close. tom white from td ameritrade, what's driving the sell-off, now down 200 points with minutes to go >> it's got to be the bond market here, sara. if you take a look at, it it's kind of been pinpointing this divergence that we've seen yields falling, stock market still at elevated levels we've got the s&p 500 down just over 4% this month you would expect it to be more dow industrials still only down about 4% since that five-week sell-off started you've got to look to the bond market it's telling the equity market something. and the investors are trying to figure that out. and i think that's why you're seeing the weakness and they're selling any rally that we see. >> tom, just quickly, lots of commentary around apple because of china trade fears how are you trading that >> if you take a look at apple, the implied volatility's relatively low in about the 40th percentile into the end of the week and the s

mike santoli joins us from the ibm post what's notable about the corporate bond sales this week is it'spening in a week of trade turmoil. companies testing out the waters what do you make of it >> equity volatilitvolatility a little policy uncertainty out there. but the corporate bond market remains very much open for business the capital markets, generally functioning very well. the big corporate issuers sold a similar amount of bonds. essentially being opportunistic. treasury yields being very low and then corporate debt spreads are also very tight. so if you look at the benchmark index of investment grade corporate debt, the yield around 3.6% down from 4.4% six months ago. obviously, a lot of demand for corporate paper. high quality paper like this also underscores another effect here both these companies making acquisitions we talk about debt finance stock buybacks a big element was debt financed cash acquisitions. these companies are taking stock off the board, off the public markets using debt to do that. that, all else being equal say positive effect for equities >> okay, mike. t

i'm sara eisen >> i'm scott wapner in today for wilfred frost along with mike santoli.ok at how we closed things up. dow closed down by about 225 points 25,123 big deal for the s&p closing above its moving average. just at the end of the day made the run into the close technicians will take that as a decent sign about how this day ended even though there was some damage done. the nasdaq down 0.75%. the russell 2000 has been in correction territory it's down about 1% it was the weakest of the averages we're showing you right now. >> in just a few minutes, scott minerd joins us to analyze the market downturn. plus results from pbh and palo alto on deck we'll bring you the numbers as soon as we get them. joining us is josh brown still with us is courtney -- josh brown is still with us and also courtney gibson from loop capital. so, mike, you know, we did see all the sectors end lower. we do not see stocks end lower at the lows. we were down more than 400 points on the dow at one point what turned it around? >> the low in the ten-year treasury yield was just before noon als

to mike santoli on the floor with the close mike >> this notable bounce losing a little bit of steamour the dow now up about 230 points. if you look at what it's done in the past few days it will give you some context at today's high the dow was up 363 points, which basically would have recaptured more than half of yesterday's decline of 617. so we've receded a little bit into the close, not necessarily on any headlines it was a little bit of a cooling off of the trade rhetoric earlier. white house talking about continued negotiations with china. but mostly seemed like a pretty technical bounce we did very oversold conditions as of the close yesterday. the nasdaq was a leadership area in the market today. i was also going to highlight the dow transports pretty good bounce, up 154 points in the transports but only recapturing a small portion of its losses. bob pisani over the last few days >> i think this is a pretty tentative bounceback we did get a rally, half of what we had, but as you noted fading a little going into the close. we did work in stupidly oversold conditions energy st

mike santoli tracking the current conditions mike with his sell-off checklist. >> here's what shouldashboard as we look at this first little significant gut check of the year. all these different factors that should drive whether you make an assessment or whether the pullback is running its course or not valuation i would say back to neutral. it wasn't that expensive before, wasn't that far from neutral, but if you look at the forward p/e, the s&p 500's about 16.6, right exactly where the five-year average is that seems to not be the swing factor just yet. technicals, are we oversold yet? on a short-term basis, yes, we're basically as oversold by some measures as we were in late march at that last little pullback that's not saying much because it wasn't that deep a dip back then but it's starting to feel as if we've drawn in the very short term enough this isn't a fundamentally based sell-off where you don't have too much financial stress we did break the 50-day average in the s&p today, not terribly decisive one day or the other. fears building up. you're seeing a lot more buying of

call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪ >>> welcome back let's send it over to mike santoliook at his second dashboard, retail sentiment. mike >> yeah, wilf, we get the weekly american association of individual investors poll on thursdays. today it did show a pretty significant pullback in bullish investors, those who said they were bullish on the market over the next six months. down five percentage points in terms of bulls mid 20s. the long-term historical average is around 36% bulls. and you see there are more bears than bulls however, the number of outright bears also came down a bit really people are neutral. what i would say is roller sentiment is moderating. you've definitely had optimism come down but it's not as if people are panicking and fearful. you look at a chart of bullish sentiment over time you'll see it's one of the lower readings of the last year right here obviously was more -- fewer bulls back in december but you're pretty low on this chart. as you can see, though, in 2015-2016 we kind of oh yo-yoed around this zone quite a bit so when the market stays u

we'll see you in a bit, mike santoli. >>> when we come back, a fiat renault mega merger is possible.of two of the how the exit of two of the industry's to introducing products faster... to managing website inventory... and network bandwidth. mos giving you a nice big edge over your competition. that's the power of edge-to-edge intelligence. >>> it has been a busy morning in deal making fiat chrysler seeking a merger with renault it's the back story, the exit of the auto industry's most prominent figures that's driving the deal phil lib bow joins us on how the human factor helped propel this merger forward. >> two of the most colorful characters in the auto business who aren't in the business anymore, sergio marsh yoan and carlos ghosn who put together the nissan-renault alliance. most people this deal wouldn't have come together if these two gentlemen were around today. take a look at the deal following the merger offer from fiat chrysler. if these two automakers come together, it will create the world's third largest automaker in terms of sales. this is if it happens. here is what w

i'm becky quick along with joe ke kernen and mike santoli.ng, what's going on >> reporter: good morning, becky. i am in atlanta this morning talking to some of georgia's biggest business leaders about the hot button issues from the business worlds from today's big tariff news to taxes and the economy and of course the controversial abortion law that has companies like disney and netflix and our own parent company questioning their presence right here. we're going to bring you interviews including a rare one with tony resler, billionaire fo

mike santoli starts us off tonight from the new york stock exchange. >> the stock market has held ono most of its gains for the year during a turbulent month of may, but over the past year, nds have been better to investors thanks in part to the trade war tha is unsettled equities. the drop in the ten-year treasury yield today to a 19-month low under 2.3% highlighted the powerful gain in bond prices which moved in the opposite direction from their yields. this bid for safe assets reflects worries over the global growth outlook which has grown more urgent on trade rules and tariffs. persistently low inflation has also encouraged the move into bonds and t return of government bonds in germany and japan deeply negative yield has likewise dragged treasury and u.s. corporate debt yields lower. as a result the total return for the barclays, aggregate bond index has been about 6% over the past 12 month, a fraction better than theurn of the s&p 500 index over that time including dividends. the bonds have delivered that return with farolessility in stocks which suffered a quick 20% loss in th

mike santoli starts us off tonight. >> after a messy may market pullback a more th 5% investors are now watching for signs of relief in the form of a bounce and the beleaguered stock index. the makings of such a bounce are starting to appear along the technical sment and seasonal front. the market has begun flashing signals that it is quote, oversold which simply means the indexes of individual stocks have fallen far bow their recent trend and appears ed somewhat streto the down side. though not the severe extremes of december when the s&p 500 sank 20% over three months the currentng rea are in the range of where balances have tended to occur. the treasury bonds have been crucial toit es as well, but the latest rushed lower to a yield of a 20-month low beneathi 2.3%ng fears about a global growth and innation outlook. that's theas enthu for stocks in the same way that stocks have appeared oversold. treasurys are looking overboug suggesting any backup in yield would offer some relief to equities. surveys of both individual and professional oinvestors ahow increasing pessimism, another ing

mike santoli explains why. >> uber made its long-awaited public debut friday as one of the 100 or soly valued in the stock market andt's not clear when or whether uber might find the way into the keywi ind the s&p 500 or into thes trillif dollars worth of funds that track it. at its initial valuation above $80 billion, uber is more than ten times to gaine entry, and they require that the member companies report four quarters of profit using standard accounting measures to be considered for membership. uber has never earned anl annua profit and analys don't expect it to in the next couple of years. uber is investing heavily to recruit drivers and sign up new customers while subsi zing the cost of rise. it's common for new ipos to wait years before joini the s&p 500. what's unusual in today'shearket isast size of the established tech companies that are coming public after years in business with billions in nu re but no clear path to profitability. following's ub ipo, rework is planning to come public while ill deeply unprofitable as well. this will leave a fairly large amount of market

i'm sara eisen wilfred frost rejoining me along with mike santoli.a look at how we finished up the day on wall street. things were looking just dandy earlier in the day a new intraday session high for the s&p. and then fed chair jay powell, late-day sell-off on wall street ended up lower 0.75% lower for the s&p 500. broad based. all sectors ended in the red except for real estate technology even popped into the red just late in the session nasdaq down about 0.5% the dow jones industrial average closing down 164 points. apeple the notable winner almost everybody else a loser. nike, microsoft, home depot. investors didn't get a clue one way or the other whether powell is leaning toward a hike or a cut. and there was a big sell-off at least into the close investors gearing up for another day of big earnings. qualcomm, square, fitbit and more set to report any minute. we'll bring you the numbers. full team coverage of all of those results, and we are here to analyze it. first, though, let's talk about what just happened to the market jeff sherman from do

but could that be changing mike santoli's at the telestrator with more. > they've gradually been pulled into this market this is a chart of the equity exposure of one category of hedge funds, volatility kroeltd systematic trading hedge funds not really important what they do except they have these models that tell them how much equity exposure to have, based on general volatility levels and whether they should be in cash, bonds, or stocks this is from wells fargo and it's essentially a proxy for this category. here's what you see. a very, very dramatic peak in early last year. that was dramatically cut back once the market gets very volatile they really do slash their equity exposure. slow rebuild through the summer of last year that was the october peak of last year. and then of course you have that quick guillotine pullback as we saw in september, october. and now this is what people are pointing to. we had tom lee on yesterday during the show talking about how hedge funds are only slowly being pushed in and there's more buying capacity in this capacity

find out if that could put a trade deal in jeopardy >>> plus, mike santoli breaking down the charts to see how the ter ev has historically traded afprious trade tension escalation we see access to fresh food being the global norm, not the exception. at emerson, when issues become inspiration, creating a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved. >>> aig earnings are out let's get to seema mody with those numbers. >> sara, aig shares popping 2% in extended trade. a huge beat on its bottom line notable rise in net interest income and an improvement in its combined ratio falling to 97.4 in the first quarter from 103.8 in the same quarter a year ago as i'm eminded the lower the ratio the better aig shares now up about 2% on a big beat on its bottom line. guys, back to you. >> seema, thanks for that one. now, stocks staging a major comeback intraday after the initial plunge following president trump's tweet. the tariffs on $200 billion worth of chinese goods could rise to 25% by friday. mike santoli looked at how previous trade threats have impacte

i'm sara eisen wilfred frost rejoining me in just a moment along with mike santoli, cnbc senior marketsmentator. take a look at how we finished up today on wall street. we were all over the place but we did end the day higher. the dow jones industrial average going out with a begin of 118 points not bad considering this morning we were down as much as 358 points s&p 500 breaks the losing streak closing higher for the first time all week long we have seen a positive close on the s&p, up .4%. it was one of the more defensive groups that led us there utilities. materials did well staples, real estate, financials only health care ended the day in the red the nasdaq composite closing just around the flat line. between gains and losses in the final hour of trade. the russell 2000 index of small caps up about .2 of 1% we just got the weekly numbers here and it looks like the s&p is moving 2.17%. that's going to make it's worst week of the year for the s&p worst week of the year for the nasdaq and not the worst week of the year for the dow maybe the worst week since march. you get the picture.

5% this year just not as strong as previously. >> not too bad keep looking stock we'll see. >> mike santoliyou. >> morgan, thanks. when we come back, facebook under fire could a breakup happen julia boorstin will sit down with chief operating officer sheryl sandberg with the dow taking another leg up here, now down 53 points we're back after a break rodney: when i think about what makes quality public education, i think about the important people in students' lives that's beyond the classroom. marisa: the needs that students have for emotional counseling are not being met. rosanne: students need art and music. more creative kids tend to be better problem solvers. angelia: one of the things that we're out there marching for is more counselors and more nurses. roxana: when we have those resources and that support, we're able to give students the education that they need. rodney: because we know quality public schools... roxana: make a better california... marisa: for all of us. >>> good morning, everyone i'm sue herera here is your cnbc news update at this hour. taiwan's legislators voting to

. >> similar thing >> and mike santoli. what stands out to you in the sell-off >> not a one-day event that's for sure. clearly the market had priced out trade tensions we're now tradepricing back in trade tensions eu came out today and downgraded germany's gdp growth from 1.1 -- again from 1.1 to half a percent. that's not good. they used the word major shock when talking about these trade tensions it's problematic when you kind of define this as a binary outco outcome. that's something i have a bigger issue with i would say this is more of a hedging event for the trading community than it is as we look at our allocations toward equities and let's pare back those holdings i don't think that's the right strategy i think you have to focus on the fact that earnings have been incredibly strong. now you have corporation that's are going to have an opportunity here in the next couple of weeks to not have to worry so much about rising private sector borrowing costs and have the ability to buy back some stock at probably cheaper le

melissa, mike santoli. ken will be answering tweets directly after the show. >> no. >> you won't be doing that. >> keep faith in america we're the best >> that was 120 characters characters, #usa i will teach you i will teach you how to do it. join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next ♪ >>> good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla along with david faber. cramer at one market in san francisco. as we look for another day of gains. the e-con data much better today than yesterday walmart with the best q1 in nine years. we pay more attention to huawei as a potential trump card in trade talks. watch yields philly fed starts and claims were all better than expected. strong earnings outweighing the lingering trade war fears. stocks boosted by walmart and cisco. >> plus president trump declaring a national emergency over threats to technology. >>> and beyond meat surging since its debut. uber stumbling out of the gate is it a wakeup call for other silicon valley unicorns.

. >>> stocks are selling off dow down 533 mike santoli has a closer look at the recent trends that weme of these big moves. mike. >> carl, so going back to the beginning of last week, this is day six of the trade influence gut check this mark et is having if you look at the start of last week, there is a pattern we have to monitor as the day goes on, which is that intraday rally or rally attempt. in each day, a big overnight sell-off, the futures are lower, into the open, and then you had some kind of rally attempt, monday, tuesday pretty flat, but end of day rally attempt but pretty much each day you picked up and closed higher than we finished this edfinished. a brief stand in the s&p 500 right around the lows from friday as art cashin was mentioning we have broken below that. i think if you look at a longer term chart, two-year chart of the s&p 500, it is going to get to a little bit of what people are in a big picture sense slightly more worried about, startinging to lo ing ing to lo topped the same location, roughly a couple of times, slightly lower, we closed friday at the janua

mike santoli -- >> thanks for having me. >>> when we come back, qualcomm shares under pressure after company violated antitrust laws. >>> plus, tesla shares skidding nearly 40% this year, tracking its worst performance ever we'll talk about these names and much more right after this break. "squawk box" will be right back. [ honking >> what are you doing? ♪ most of us don't know how much data we use... ...but we all know we're paying too much for it. enter xfinity mobile. america's best lte with the most wifi hotspots. combined for the first time. when you're near an xfinity hotspot, you're connected to wifi, saving on data. when you're not, you pay for data one gig at a time. use a little, pay a little. use a lot, just switch to unlimited. get $250 back when you buy a new samsung galaxy. call, visit or click today. >>> okay, still to come on "squawk box" this morning, qualcomm under pressure after a judge rules it has violated antitrust laws we're going to get street reaction right after the break. >>> and then, no pain, no gain a look at the short-term effects of tariffs versus the

michael santoli now for "trading nation." mi mike >> cancelkelly, more on the trar fallout. abcs are tanking, knocked down double digits from recent highs. so does this mean they have more misery to come or maybe buying opportunity? miller, michael of graded investments are your "trading nation" team abc in the cross hairs of the china trade friction any of those look like they can work from here >> well, they all are going to be challenged right now because of this issue. i thought to myself, of the three, which would bounce back the best if we suddenly heard that donald trump announce he was going to hit this ceremonial opening tee shot along with president xi at the pga this week and of course, the market would bounce back and the one that i looked at was apple i mean, it's funny because it's seeing a golden cross. that's when a rising 50 day average, and i'm usually not a big fan of that indicator but a compelling one for apple the last three times, we've seen a golden cross, it's rallied over 500%, 110% and 125% each of the last three times and we just saw one late last

can stocks shrug off these trade concerns over is this more than just a normal pullback our mike santolive liesman both join us now mike, what is this what is going on no headlines that i can see that have this effect, but you know, we've been pretty much settling into. >> right now, i think we are just really still in this thing, i think in this stuck place for the moment, anyway yes, it's a normal pull back from the highs in terms of magnitude, in terms of duration, in terms of coming after a very strong four-month ralrally i think the korch complicated factors are not just the headlines about trade, and coming at a time when the bond market seems to be bracing for something a little bit more jarring on the economy, perhaps. i mean, maybe that's the message of the treasury market that's why i feel it feels a little more dicey. the other piece is a 5% pull back from an all time high but also bringing you back to levels we first hit almost a year and a half ago for the s&p 500 that kind of makes it feel like a little more of kind of traversing it trading range as opposed to we had a real

first up, mike santoli is looking at how fast food chains stack up to popular casual restaurant namesk performance differential over the last year with the advantage going to fast food chains, quick service restaurants. mcdonald's up 22%. qsr, that'f burger king and oths and chipolte and then suffering relatively is we have brinker, cheesecake factory, blooming brands they've not necessarily held as fast seems consumer preference oriented, technology oriented, essentially sitting down to a casual dining meal i will mention an exception to this role is darden restaurants, the parent of olive garden some 15% of their sales in recent quarters have been coming from take-away and catering and parties and things like that delivery as well not strictly sit-down meals. >> mike, thank you >>> restaurant brands hosted its first ever investor day in new york today kate rogers joins us with more what was the big takeaway there. >> the company gave us a look at its expansion plans across its three brands which are burger king, popeye's and tim horton's. it will grow to more than 40,000 locations.

only 18% have missed and yet as mike santoli pointed out today, full-year 2019 forecasts have not risen all this positive beats of q1 estimates. is this a cause for concern? mike, your point on that is the outlooks haven't been increased but the beats have been relatively significant for the past quarter >> very. to the point where everyone would say that it was mostly about analysts having gone too far in cutting and there's been enough top line growth for companies to make the numbers. so i do think you could spin this a couple different ways, the fact that 2019 estimates have not really lifted one is analysts aren't seeing the fundamental drivers to kind of take numbers up the other is residual caution out there and companies are being conservative and there's a little bit of margin pressure depending on the sector you look at i think that's another consideration. but you know, i guess flat is okay because they're no longer going down but you would have liked to see over the course of earnings season people have cuss to take their forecast -- >> why do you think the forecasts aren't

i'm becky quick along with joe ke kernen and mike santoli.ross sorkin is live this morning, what's going on >> reporter: good morning, becky. i am in atlanta this morning talking to some of georgia's biggest business leaders about the hot button issues from the business worlds from today's big tariff news to taxes and the economy and of course the controversial abortion law that has companies like disney and netflix and our own parent company questioning their presence right here. we're going to bring you interviews including a rare one with tony resler, billionaire founder of apollo global management he's now executive chairman of aries management he has a number of provocative things to say about the trade war. you're going to want to hear some of the things we talked about about. also ed bastian, the ceo of delta airlines the president and coo of focus brands, of course the company behind jamba juice and cinnabon, and a jpmorgan executive who was named one of the most powerful women in banking and our host this morning john hope bryant, fo

mike santoli. >>> facebook's push into privacy.ies of new policies being rolled out by the social media giant as you know. we'll get a lot more on that when we come back. dow up 87. back to 2952, sticky today rick, what are you watching? >> you know, i'm watching the markets in general it's been a great run for equities and thinking about all the people that want more stimulus in the economy. they must all be fans of the fast and furious hit the nitrous, hit the nitrous. we're going to talk about imatn tethbrk.stulioafr e ea - did you know that americans that bought gold in 2005 quadrupled their money by 2012? and even now, many experts predict the next gold rush is just beginning. (upbeat music) - [announcer] today the u.s. money reserve announces the immediate release of u.s. government issued solid gold coins for the incredible price on screen. these gold american eagles are official gold coins of the united states and are being sold for the price on screen. - pick up the phone and call america's gold authority u.s. money reserv

mike santoli here to break down the move that got started a few minutes ago when we got word out of kaylasche's reporting as well that it looks like we're going to delay any decision on auto tariffs for europe. happy with -- >> i think for as long as a little bit of a twitch, yes, it makes sense. what i like to look at is what works when you get one of these moves. we, obviously, are just reclaiming that last hour of losses yesterday, not even coming close to doing that just yet, but it's big tech again it's not -- it wasn't the car stocks driving us higher at this point. it was basically we like when we're in the buying mood, when we think the market has had enough pain for the short term it tends to be the large growth stocks that's offsetting weakness in the banks today. that to me is a little bit of a tell of where maybe the leadership still has to be >> so auto tariffs were worth 150 points in the dow, but i'm still trying to figure out what is this crummy economic data out of china and the u.s. mean for us i mean it field feeds into the global deflationary story again. it feeds into

hey, mike santoli, i have not heard a single person mention a single word about mueller, impeachment, anything of the like when we just heard from robert mueller for the first time in the two years that he conducted his investigation. if the democrats are emboldened by what he said today, and you have to go through an impeachment proceeding on the hill, a long one, a messy one, and an ugly one, how does the market react to that, do you think? >> are you saying that perhaps that could end the collegial atmosphere in washington somehow, that we've been enjoying for so long >> do we think the market is just going to sit back and love every moment of that theater on capitol hill >> i think it will be -- i think -- look, the market has obviously been coexisting with this possibility in a very real way for a long time. i think that the outlines of everything in the report and what mueller said today, i don't think it's necessarily fresh i think, yeah, sure, you have to hunker down for this basically being another year and a half of kind of hand to hand combat in washington, it being kind of

before you invest, investor.gov. . >>> want to thank eric cantor, melissa, mike santoli.ing that. >> keep faith in america we're the best >> that was 120 characters characters, #usa i will teach you i will teach you how to do it. join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next ♪ >>> good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla along with david faber. cramer at one market in san francisco. as we look for another day of gains. the e-con data much better today than yesterday walmart with the best q1 in nine years. we pay more attention to huawei as a potential trump card in trade talks. watch yields philly fed

mike santoli's back.nd of hot, steve? >> i did i had it wrong rick had it right. we sometimes don't use the same consensus, but this time we do he was right -- >> he said it was cold -- >> colder than expected. i like how rick put it as well, joe. you know, it's not declining it's just not -- it's not really moving and the context here is important, because you would think the way the economy's been running and the way unemployment's been running that there were expectations you would have higher inflation, but we're just not seeing it housing shelter up pretty good, 0.3%, 0.4% right there a decline in new and used vehicles down 0.4% sometimes that has to do with the time of the year airline fares down 0.1%. i'm just seeing not a whole lot of inflation in there. prescription drugs up 0.7% that had been on the way down. it seems to be back on the way up the last couple months. gasoline, though, up 5.7%. that's going to kind of work its way through. i thought, guys, for a second, we'd talk -- >> not going a

courtney and mike santoli. >> are you looking at your -- are you on twitter >> no, i'm not. >> got any the bannon -- >> one thing, to pick up on -- >> oh, you're going back to macy's >> no, because somebody's going to be right here and somebody's going to be wrong, that if this is as big as a moment as i think it is, joe, with china, and as steve bannon argued, the trump put -- the assumption that the market's just going to bounce back on this -- that could be really a miscalculation, or we've miscalculated. >> we'll talk more in the next -- unless bannon's right that part of the 3.2% gdp was because of, not in spite of, the tariffs. >> but i think there will be a significant transition >> tom, what about the comments we got from macy's' ceo there? similar tone too often, oh, if we see the extra tariffs, it will be terrible for our business is that something that you'd like to see business leaders step away from and actually support this strategy because of the long-term benefits, despite potential short-term -- >> that one's outside my skill set. i don't know enough about the retail b

. >> for more, paul ingrassia is editor at the institute for automotive research and cnbc's mike santoli i do not. >> have you ridden in a renault? >> yeah. >> have you seen them? how was it >> it's going back 25 years. >> i had one in high school. it dlacollapsed all the time. >> you had the convertible, right? >> no, it was a little white box and that thing caused me more heartache and headache trying to get around i learned how to, like, fix my car a million different ways because it broke down so often. >> o'leary coined the term poop box. was it a poop box? >> i think he said a poop show. >> but you can interchange it anywhere with the other word, right? >> that company will be a poop show for five years as they try to struggle -- >> i didn't realize they had to get all of the government approvals. >> it is a nightmare from hell if you wanted to dream up a place to go if you've been bad on earth, it would be to work at this company. >> paul, how many renaults have you got and how many are in the shop >> you know, i don't have any, but i do remember back in the 1980s when, you know,

jason furman, david mcintosh, mike santoli, steve liesman and rick santelli. let's play the game.got to do "price is right" rules so -- >> without going over. >> can't go over >> you want to go first? >> oh, "price is right" rules ruin my strategy, but i'll stick with 230. >> okay, mr. santoli >> no guess, but i think the whisper's higher than the consensus. i think leaning for a stronger number. >> david >> 225,000 225,000 -- >> that's rick >> 225 okay >> and club for growth, we're bullish. we're in the 220,000, 230,000 range. >> you've got to pick a number, my friend. >> 230. >> 230, okay mr. liesman? >> 195,000 195,000. 185,000 private sector and making up the government is everybody else. >> is this just a low-balling situation, so you win if everyone else is over? is that what the strategy is >> no, i've got 185,000 on my private-sector model i can pick it up and show you. you can look at the information there, if you want. >> the model. >> it's the model. >> one day you should make that model public we should just post it online somewhere. >> it could be public, but it's sor

joining us barbara reinhart, mike santoli joining us as well.d cause maybe, i don't know, maybe a hike or to go down due to economic weakness with no inflation. so, staying on hold is exactly where the fed should be, is that basically it >> yeah. it's an accommodative term from last year for sure and there's a high hurdle for the fed to cut interest rates at this point, yes, why the market has been pricing in somewhat of a fed cut at this point about 40 bases points, if you put probability assignments against it, it's really not all that material and in our view, the signs of inflation just don't seem to be there. if you take a look at the nfib survey, they do not site that inflation is a big issue for small businesses and while the core trimmed mean inflation from the dallas fed is -- is still sticky at 1.96%, you know, we don't see much to really punch it over that at this point additionally, the fed told you they would like to see inflation run a little above their target to try to hit their target in the long-term. so, we just don't see that

and mike santoli is our senior markets commentary we talked about being the king of the jungle and ithe way that lions actually hunt that i forgot to figure out what you're trying to say about the stock market so, when they hunt, and it's mostly the lionesse senk doing the hunting. >> they're doing the work. >> so the men are sitting around on their fat it. >> mostly like they do everywhere. >> and they only have a 16% to 18% success rate, because i mean, hunting and killing things is tough you can get killed yourself. >> just walking around here's tough. >> around here, it's like living in new york. but your point is, they go after sick or old or young antelope -- >> or weak. >> -- or weak wildebeest, and stuff like that. >> that's how we want to play it with respect to selling or shorting things, target the weak items. >> technically look at what's weak what's weak? >> russell 2000 especially is weak, energy's weak, oil's weak, europe's weak, asia's weak that's the weak spot s&p's hanging in there nasdaq's hanging in there. >> so kick these poor sectors while they're down is what y

can wall street's risk off rally last mike santoli is here with us at post nine to expand on somethingten today. >> even with this good bounce last week we got off monday's lows, even before we got this latest jolt from the escalation of the trade war rhetoric, it was mostly a defensive stock led rally. essentially we had a resilient market, less than 4% from the high in the s&p, but built on a fragile premise in terms of macro implications very defensive stocks, low yields supporting valuations, basically speaking to expectations of a rate cut, which would require softer economic numbers to come true. and the bounce last week was certainly well timed and happened at a place where the market probably could have gotten out of hand to the downside and didn't, but was relatively unimpressive. narrow breadth and still seems to some degree to be resembling the 2016 experience, early 2016, very climactic bear market volume, and brexit happened, this macro shock, caused a test of the rally, caused some real negative sentiment, starting to get more skepticism in the market right now and then w

mike santoli here to break down the move that got started a few minutes ago when we got word out of kaylag to delay any decision on

we are here with mike santoli here helping us with the open after an eventful few days, whether it is and oil and copper and we have real estate how much of this rotation is done >> the bond market has a defensive crack now. what went from maybe we'll get the fed to cut rates as an insurance policy proactively now the bond market is saying we may not need one in the next several months that's the way the day is going. if you look at industrial all foreign companies. the market is taking out of the value area and putting into a steady cash flow how much of that is a big question i don't think the big episode of the testing phase of the market ends some very clear signal. there is some moment, the trade war is over, all good. it is much more of the market digested this enough and certain sector gets over sold enough and the market feels like it is discounting a bad scenario and not having a get worse is enough for a while. or the feds can change its tune. what has happened this week from all the bad news and the data and the trade war and everything else is the odds of fed cutting this

the consumer in china, the u.s., and well developed middle class in mexico >> john stoltzfus, mike santolil. >>> when we come back this morning, more on the trade threats against mexico and one industry that could get hit the hardest. it is the last trading day of what has been a tough month for stocks some of the laggards on the s&p for may, you'll take a look at those new. dow down 269 about 50 pois f e ssn w.ntofthseio be good while i'm gone. [ laughing ] woo hoo. ♪ welcome to my house mmm, mmm, mmmmm. ball. ball. ball. awww, who's a good boy? it's me. me, me, me. yuck, that's gross. you got to get that under control. [ dogs howling ] seriously? embrace the mischief. say "get pets tickets" into your x1 voice remote to see it in theaters. >>> good morning, everyone i'm sue herera with your cnbc news update at this hour a south korean newspaper is repo reporting that north korea executed a senior envoy involved in nuclear negotiations with the u.s. as well as four other high ranking officials. north korea has refused comment. the senior envoy was purportedly killed in march. >>> secretary