let's send it over to mike santoli for today's market dashboard. hey, mike. >> pretty about rally here going to call it a round-trip rally. more on that in a second and this one i'm calling too low to fall further. might be about the bond market we'll get into that. under the hood a little glimpse beneath the surface of the indexes today and then price the pivot so a little best a fed conversation in the next hour. but round-trip rally look at the s&p 500. i keep coming back to this 18-month look at the s&p we've mostly been rangebound within this. look at the level we're at right now. it's all kinds of fun that we are exactly where we closed on january 26th of 2018 so what has happened in the interim? we've chopped a lot around this is a very severe correction and of course was also a pretty good buying opportunity, pretty climactic low. here's another interesting aspect of this pattern, guys is the low that we have at least setting up right now, that we got to just late last month, was just about where we bottomed also in march. so maybe this is

for "nightly business report," i'm mike santoli. >>>to what is the mar expecting from the upcoming trade talks between president trump and china's president xi jinping. joining us, david liebowitz. thank you for coming in. >>hanks for having me. >> here we sit at the all-time highs as mike was pointing out e does that mean a deal with china is already priced in? we don't get much more up side if we get a deal and downide if we don't? what's going on? >> this is buy the rumor and sell the news. i think the market's assumptioni all along we will see a deal done with china. thinky at this juncture i the market would be comfortable with no escalation in the current state of affairs with china. as long as we don't put tariffs on the additional 300 billion of imports, i think the market will be able to handle that. s i don a ton of up side here stemming from a positive resolution to t talks, maybe if some of the existing tariffs are rolled back you wouldee markets melt higher. i don't think investors are expecting that. they're expecting

mike santoli with his dashboard. bertha coombs up at the nasdaq bob pisani here at the nyse. e this close. mike lewis, managing director of u.s. equity cash trading at barclays mike, we are seeing a little bit of a bounceback. still technology is in the eyes of the storm today with new antitrust investigations on silicon valley what do you do with this group what are you watching? >> we're obviously watching the action this has been a crowded part of the market to begin with to see the sell-off on news that we've had isn't completely surprising but how the market is reacting and digesting it is kind of interesting today. we've seen the bulk of s&p components up on the day as you guys have been noting tech has been down and under pressure i think this is more a reaction to headline. there's more to come for sure. rather than comment on those individual names i just think this is sort of the derisking that we had in mind when we thought we'd see further down side to the s&p. i think we're coming toward a near-term bottom for markets, equity markets >> mike lewis, thanks very muc

let's go back to mike santoli. ashboard with under 30 minutes into the close mike >> high-yield debt actually having a very good day as well they often of course move along with equities if you look at the pattern in junk bonds, actually a very weak stretch coming into today. the hygt etf compared to the ief which is a mid-maturity treasury etf. this approximates the risk spreads in high-yield debt what you'll see here in white is a lot of outperformance for high yield throughout much of this year until recently came down here and you saw treasuries start to outperform it's still obviously holding up okay today that's a pretty big move this is a year-to-date move. almost a 1% gain in the high-yield etf it often has more exaggerated moves than the underlying bonds but still pretty impressive. however, look at a one-year basis the same relationship and there's still a lot of room for high yield to improve before you can say that risk on is back treasuries vastly outperforming junk and this move just today is a slight

huge moves let's get to mike santoli. some upbeat subtitles today. >> we'll get to a few of these numbers. semi-charmed life, and micron, only happy when it rains earnings forecast not looking great, but is that bad news all away come away with me? maybe the prospect for investing outside of u.s. is picking up a bit, and then jump then fall, and then can it continue look at the that is right of micron i wanted to put today's move in a bit of context also point out, first of all, it's well below its highs, the stock was back in the mid 50s a year ago it was even higher than that what i wanted to point out with march, this little move up that was the last earnings report the stock rallied heart. obviously that didn't quite hold so you see something similar relative to the s&p 500 over the last year, they took different pathing, but have basically landed in virtually the same spot you see this massive outperformance that build up into the spring. you can't really call it a leadership sector, but definitely on watch for being

mike santoli has been covering the marketseor us from new york stock exchange. know, how much of a surprise was this sell-off? the old adage is sell in may and go away. >> that's exactly right, phil -- bill, and i do think we had one of the strongest four-month starts ines dec through april and the s&p 500 up more than 17%. i do thinkome kind o pullback was probably expected by many investors. i dot think the intensity of the decline and the fact that there was no relief along the way and every week was downnd of course, the tariff news made it about a little bit more than ving back gains and having plat profits and it became about how t world is going to grow for the rest of this year and to me it reflected in the market as peaps i expected the cut the trade issues. >> the trade issues are still with us and what are you hearing with the trade war still in place is the selling expected to continue or do you think we're little bit and ready to bounce? >> there are some indicators that say just because it's been lopsided to the down side in the month of may, perha

we will see you next hour. >>> let's send it to mike santoli for the second dashboard.ey, wilf we keep getting fresh evidence that investors got up in a defensive crouch today we got the american association of individual investors survey and we saw more people saying they were bearish about stocks than bullish. this represents six weeks, six straight weeks, in which more bears than bulls have come through on this survey now, there was a little bit of a bounce but still negative and the last time we had six straight weeks below the flatline here was in early 2016 so what you see is when you see these extremes instead of -- by the way, this is reflected in the merrill lynch fund manager survey, today rbc had its own survey of fund managers all saying they really had gotten quite defensive and it helps explain how the market has continued to lift even with the data being bad and yes, of course, people relying on the fed so usually when you have kind of a real kind of giddy breakout and people love the market, and you see many more bulls than bears, that's more the time to

albeit slightly lower. >>> let's check in with mike santoli.y is -- >> look at financial conditions. this is part of the whole debate about what the fed will or should do. the goldman conditions index takes into account things like stock prices, credit spreads, volatility in the market when this is going up, financial conditions are getting tighter which means the fed will be more inclined to ease conditions. so some context is really interesting. the fed hiked rates a couple of times in the second half of last year once was right here. and once was right about there so essentially financial conditions can keep going up and getting tighter as the fed says, okay, that's fine. we hear your markets but we have a tightening plan. so the fact we're up here, well below the december peaks in tightness would suggest that maybe it's gotten the fed's attention. they just showed you a willingness to move when conditions were worse. now we know the tone is changed. there's no way they'll wait until it gets up here before they use potentially but it does, i

under three minutes to go before the close, let's go back to mike santoli for the third dashboard of >> sara, calling this weighing the week we're on target in terms of the broad indexes for a modest gain this week but here is kind of a story of how we got there to these gains. a split between some of the offense type sectors and defense. so the splv, that's what we used for kind of the defensive quality risk off low volatility stocks the vnq is the vanguard reit index etf. also kind of benefiting from that defensive move in real estate high beta is more aggressive stocks within the s&p. and the sox is the semiconductors as you can see right here, orange and blue, that's the aggressive stuff that worked until about tuesday. that's when bond yields were going up and people were getting excited about buying some of the oversold cyclicals then you had some drift lower and of course the big down move in semis today right here you're seeing the outperformance again of the more defensive stuff. take a look at a one-year version of this chart. it's going to be more historic in that exact di

i'm sarah eisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost, along with mike santoli.'s check in how the markets closed dow is down 0.15%. s&p down 0.2 the russell stayed in positive territory just about the nasdaq did lag some moves in oil. that meant the energy sector was low. yields for the first time this week slipped a bit, undoing the good work the banks had done in the early part of the week in fact, wells fargo down as much as 3% at the close. >> and for all the talk today about the defensive groups going up, how about this ipo we got an ipo at the nasdaq today, crowdstrike, ticker crwd. popped 70% there's still hunger in this market for the hot, fast growing names. this is a company that posted 100% year on year revenue growth last quarter and became a $20 billion company just like that so some mixed ipo performance in general, but it's in cyber it's in cloud. it's in all the secular growth places that investors still want if you want any sign that risk is still on, check that out. >> as we talked about with josh, zoom was up again today. beyond meat, even aft

. >>> 45 minutes left of trade dow down about 25 points let's send it to mike santoli for today's market dashboard mike, what are you looking at today? >> here's what we have fickle fed forecast. get to that in a minute. take a look at the treasury yield at the short end to see what it says about the fed beyond -- or before beyond meat we're going to take a look at some previous hot consumer ipos and how they did turning 29 again not plausible for me but maybe for the market the confidence gap different ceos at different size companies have very different views on things now. fickle fed forecast. really going to look at the yield on the two-year treasury note it has popped up to 1.93 this is a year to date chart so obviously this yield has collapsed as we've become concerned about the economy, more so about inflation, global growth, and also what the fed 1.78 last friday to 1.93 today after we got the producer price index today. nothing alarming but definitely on trend 2% core wholesale price inflation. it suggests that maybe there's room for the market to revise its best guess of what t

kevin hincks thanks for joining us let's send it over to mike santoli, the third market dashboard. > calling this one that's mr. softee to you. mr. softee of course trading, that's slang for microsoft quiet day for the broad indexes. i thought i'd like at the largest stock in the u.s. stock market, holding a trillion-dollar valuation. if anything perhaps underappreciated how well it's done up 30% this year within 2% of its all-time high at a time when fang and apple are 9% to 20% below their highs. very long history. 25 years of microsoft relative to the s&p 500 this is a ratio. what you see is this massive blastoff in the late '90s. that was a tremendous 600% outperformance from the mid '90s to the end of 1999 and then 15 years kind of in the wilderness, no outperformance. gave back half the outperformance now here you go. another vertical move. how much can it last we have a trillion-dollar -- amazon and apple could not hold that level it's been kind of a remarkable run. the only question is does it get too overloved in the short term? going to go up to the nasdaq where frank holl

let's send it over to mike santoli for today's market dashboard. mike >> here's what we have coming up first we'll check out the performance of the new kids on the street, get to that in a second, some young stocks. celebrating the gloom after that, a check on sentiment right now as it stands among individual investors trip to the winner's circle after that take a look at some of the all-time highs being set on what had been a pretty quiet day in the market and tortoise overtaking the hare tortoise takes the lead on a longer-term basis in the markets. new kids on the street is a look at the ipo recent ipo performance this is an etf the renaissance etf has a portfolio of recent ipos in the last year and a half year to date basis performing very well. uber is now a part of this one it's almost 5% of the portfolio. lyft is in there as well so we're talking about beyond meat earnings and zoom video all that stuff candidate to enter this one. it looks like a risk on story, right? over the year-to-date basis six months as well but take a look on a one-yea

send it over to mike santoli mike >> sara, thank you we are hitting the bid in a moment big art auction house buyout today. hitting on the topic you talked about, unearned benefits corporate paper on fire in a good way and corporate bonds and then the buck's tale, stocks and the dollar, how does that relationship change over time in take a look at this chart of sotheby's from the moment it first listed back in the '80s. there you go may of 1988 first listed this is an unusually good tell for what the market is doing or going to be doing. you see the really sharp peaks right here that's 1989. that's before the recession before the early '90s. and then you got 1999. that led the nasdaq peak by about a year and here october 1st, 2007, almost exactly with the stock market peak. and then you also get the bottoms there, too that is '09. this is 2011 essentially an exaggerated version of what's going on in public asset markets but it kind of stopped going up with the stock market here in the last few years and i also find interesting the buyout deal at 57 it is about within pennies of the all-

up next mike santoli has the final dashboard with a look at m&a and the markets. when "closing bell" comes back carvana is six years old this year and is the fastest growing place to buy a car in the nation. it's because we have thousands of people working hard to make our customers' experiences the best. it's because we have tens of thousands of cars ready to be delivered to your doorstep. and it's why hundreds of thousands of happy customers have ditched the dealership and bought their car online, earning us an average 4.7 stars in the process. so if you didn't know about us before, you do now. we're carvana, and we want to give you the car buying experience you deserve. >>> we got a flurry of merger news today look at the overall trend, though, in m&a volume. this is global m&a volume by quarter. so you see right here this was the first quarter of this year not that impressive. kind of trailed off from last year right around the levels of the second half of 2016, when total market cap was down by a third from where we are right now. so as a percentage of market

s&p down five points >>> and i'm sara eisen along with mike santoli.a look how we finished the day. the dow finished higher by 11 points s&p 500 down less than .2. materials, staples and technology had a good day. energy, skoorconsumer discretio engineer, health care not so good russell 2000 down 1% let's go to you. >> not a lot of action today to speak of there are still -- it's the end of the week. people are focused on the g-20 as i know you are. iran the comments this morning when we had if there was a conflict with iran and oil were to go into triple digits he had no doubt about it got to be something that at least investors have to keep in mind it's not that tensions aren't still very high. >> energy did not get a lift worst performing sector. to me strength in consumer staples. if you're bearish on this picture, you look at groups like that and say well texaco is trading at a record high walmart is trading at a new 52 week high. is that a vote of confidence in the economy and taking risk and that sort of thing or does it follow the bond trade wh

mike santoli has the story >> right now it doesn't seem like we're particularly late in the game if ermhes of the expansion. markets at their highs credit markets good. the vix low. why is the market now pressing the fed to come in with what you might consider its strongest web out of the bullpen well, it's part of the same logic that has why wait to use it at the end of the game. if there is a kraushl moment in the game, you should bring in that closer. that seems to be what the markets are saying a rate cut right now would be the equivalent of bringing your best weapon in to diffuse a threat before you actually need to use that person later on down the line now, the quants in baseball and markets are using this you don't need a cycle to ward off later. that's basically what we're talking about here you've kind of used that weapon in a way that really is not most effective. now down the road you don't have that rate cut in your pocket and, in fact, the market might go on to new heights in the economy. wimp is the thing calling on the fed to make this move. you see this inverted structu

melissa, back over to you. >> mike santoli, thank you >>> ahead on "power lunch," trump and xi set to talk trade. is a deal still on the table >> plus, income instability, why the jobs of the future could make your wages more volatile. >> and a tech council survey the surprising results ahead on "power lunch." >> and now, the latest from tradingnation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. >> many people say don't fight the fed, but that doesn't mean you have to fear the fed if you're long-term investor, don't let a fed announcement derail your long-term investing plan however, if you're a short-term trader, you may want to consider waiting until after a fed announcement before taking on any new positions. i'm randfrerk, ay edicnd schwab is the better place for traders. man: stand up if you are a first generation college student. stand up if you're a mother. if you are actively deployed, a veteran, or you're in a military family, please stand. the world in which we live equally distributes talent. but it doesn't equally distribute opportunity, and paths are not always the same. i'm so

as always, that's mike santoli so let's play off of what josh was talking about. why is everybody ignoring what's hac happening elsewhere? why 99.9% of the time and almost 100% ex-josh on the desk -- >> it's called the bias u.s. u.s. has justed things in recent years. and availability people don't know those companies. for example, the third -- there's only three human beings alive that are worth over $100 billion. two of them are u.s. tech executives the third is a guy in france who sells handbags there are stocks going up in huge magnitude in places outside the u.s. we're not familiar with those companies here and we don't get excited about them i think that's a big reason. >> so is it time given what happened last week with draghi's language to say there's a lot of risk ahead of me in the u.s. there's uncertainty here there, wherever. >> no. it looked much better than it looks now. they've lagged us? temp terms of their policy. >> they also didn't clean up their bank situation which held them back. >> let me ask you a question let's say you're politically power

going to happen, so be involved, good word, mike, but also have some cash on the side. >> thank mike santoli for joining us for that conversation as well as we continue it, meghan >> the economic outlook, i agree with jim, the economic outlook is fundamental to that you can, you know, you should be watching the credit market we've been watching not only leveraged loans but also within the investment grade space, the amount of triple b bonds so just one rung above high yield, the risk is if you do have a slowing economic environment, some of those could trickle down into high yield, which is a much smaller market, much less liquid, and we also have a lot more passive vehicles now, so if you think about the passive etf exposure within the fixed income space, these are instruments that might only be able to hold investment grades so you could have some forced selling again, that's a negative picture, but the if your outlook is that the economy's going to continue to expand, maybe at a slower pace but avoid a recession, it's not something to worry about or panic about yet >> just so i'm clear, i

high thanks, mike santoli let's talk about another stock on the move today. jpmorgan downgrading beyond meat saying the stock is beyond our price target shares are tumbling more than 20%. this is basically a -- all of these grand views about beyond meat's future are now in the stock. maybe you can't call the top but as cramer said, you can call when enough is enough. that's what apparently they're doing. the stock is up, what, 600% from the ipo. you guys -- >> it might not be the top beuth you definitely could see it from where it was so whether or not that's the top, how long that lasts, i think we're going to see, scott, people that love this company because of what they do, because of the announcement today about the grocery stores and so forth, that they're going to be rolling out into, there's hardly been a day since the ipo when there wasn't good news out about the company, including their most recent earnings report the first one as a public company. so, i don't blame anybody for pulling back here. i've not owned it. i'm not in it but i think that, you

for nightly business report, i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange. >> a new report shows inflationicked higher, the producer price index which features wholesale prices businesses received for their goods and services raised 5% compared to the previous month and that was in linh expectations. prices for consumer services led by an unusually lar increase in hotel room rentals and costs for medical careere also higher. >>> jason ware joins us now to talk about theat inflation and what it means for the fed and the economy. he's chief investment officer with lvn financial group. welcome back. >> thanks for having me.re good to be >> there is a wide spectrum of forecastses on wall street about what the fed's going to with interest rates this year. barclays, for ex three cuts before the end of the year totaling 75 bases points and yesterday goldman sachs said no cuts at all this year. where do you fall on this, bearing in mind what we're seeila about ion right w? >> right. a lot of those targets and predictions are reactionary to what t federal funds future market is saying that there's

for "nightly business report" i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange. >>> as we mentioned nductor stocks weighed down the market today and it all started with the weak earnings weort from broadcom that told you about last night. it was a company of the quarter of the coany's ceo called depressing. it dragged the other chip stocks down with it. it was anothereminder of the impact of the trade war with china. a country that the indusy relies a great deal on for business. josh lipton has more. >>s shipping invest got a first look at what an extended trade war could mean for semiconductors and it sn't pretty. broadcom ceo hock tan laid o the challenges. >> with respect to semiconductors it is clear that the u.s.-china trade conflict including thei hua export ban is creating economic and political uncertainty and reducing visibilit for global oem customers. as a result, demand volatility has increased and our customers are actively reducing inventory levels to manage risk. >> he noted that the company had $900 million in revenue from huawei last year and it isn't just broadcom. micron'

i'm david faber with sara eisen and mike santoli, live from the new york stock exchange.im has the morning off. carl is on assignment in vietnam. companies are racing there to produce their goods to avoid a hit from china tariffs carl will report live from hanoi tomorrow with an in depth look at the country's manufacturing boom be sure to watch his made in vietnam coverage >>> let's look at futures now as we get set up 30 minutes from now for the opening trading for the week we're looking for a higher open at this point after a strong week last week road map, it does start with geopolitical risks for stocks. iran and trade remain, of course, key focus. stocks set to open higher as you saw. the dow now on pace for its best june in 80 years. >>> plus, president trump's rate rant the president calling out the fed saying it is acting like a stubborn child. >>> in deal moves, eldorado i cs entertainment, $8.5 billion equity val ue deal, we'll dig into it. we enter the final week of june, the upcoming g-20 meeting, tengs between the u.s. and iran and president trump once again

you've got is depressing the euro, which we see today is getting harder to do. >> barry bannister, mike santolike, you stay close barry, see you next time >>> a milestone for uber and red hot beyond meat preparing to release its first quarterly results as a public company. that should be fun tonight futures briefly going negative and now back up. dow futures up 18, continuing this winning streak we've seen in the markets this week live from post nine at the nyse live from post nine at the nyse when we return experience with a has been excellent. they really appreciate the military family and it really shows. with all that usaa offers why go with anybody else? we know their rates are good, we know that they're always going to take care of us. it was an instant savings and i should have changed a long time ago. it was funny because when we would call another insurance company, hey would say "oh we can't beat usaa" we're the webber family. we're the tenney's we're the hayles, and we're usaa members for life. ♪ get your usaa auto insurance quote today. we like drip coffee, layovers- ♪ -and waiting

. >>> markets in rally mode, let's talk about our etf spotlight and send it over to mike santoli >> hadig impact on the growth versus value interplay as we watch all the time. we know it's been a growth dominated market for a long time this is the russell 1,000 growth versus the value version of this index. it peaked in a spread of basically 6 and 7 percentage points back in the market, pete. both declined basically around the same angle, but look in the last month or so and particularly you can see yesterday's action on this yesterday was the biggest bump in value over growth that we have seen this year. so the orange is value, so that big shot up, and this is, you know, a weaker balance that we're seeing today in growth the big question is yesterday, software and faang stocks is that enduring or a representation of that's one of the last places people were hiding and maybe that meant the market as a whole was due to bounce let's see if there's a changing character. >> mike santoli. let's get over to sue herera, and get an update at this hour. >>> here's what's happening at this hour.

mike santoli with those numbers. >> corporate america has been on a decades-long borrowing binge andsting to see why. investors have an insatiable appetite for corporate debt. businesses have racked up nearly $10 trillion in debt thaft's up 50% before the global financial crisis corporate debt is now a record 47% of record gps. if recession saps corporate ability. a recent get report cites this risk but points out it's near the long-term average and cash flow far exceeds interest expense. for now corporate debt remains a looming threat that isn't yet an urgent threat for investors buld could become an economic factor with any stumble to come. >> debt has to be repaid theory rhett hickly what happens when the bill comes due. i mean the debt levels, it's like a rugby game at a lobl golden corral. i understand mike's point about how profits and debt levels are about influx, but profits can go down. >> yes. >> are you worried about debt levels right now, peter? >> i am. in particular mick's piece is great. there are two ways to look at it stock and flow interest rates are so low and have

i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and mike santoli. andrew is out today. u.s.ities this morning, things are looking up once again after the tariffs with mexico have been called off the dow futures are indicated up another 107 points s&p futures up by 10 1/2 nasdaq up by 23, almost 24 this morning. dow has now been up five days in a row. the s&p 500 and nasdaq were up four days. the dow now breaking a six-week losing streak, i should say. that was its longest in eight years with that big gain that we saw from last week again, five days in a row with gains looking at triple digit gains open now take a look at what's been happening in the treasury market yields the other big story after the jobs report that we got on friday that was weaker tan anticipated, the 10 year yield is 2.0%. >> that's up from -- >> what does that mean for the fed? they don't necessarily have to step in as quickly as people thought? >> it might ease things off although the market probably still has that pricing for later. not june but july and september. still expect. >> big disappointment

i'm sara eisen with wilfred frost and mike santoli jim, carl and david all have the morning off.ooking at futures, looks like we're building toward a higher open on wall street. dow up 107 points. s&p up 9 nasdaq up 16 final day of the month of the quarter of the first half of the year, all looking pretty solid road map for the hour starts with a trade war truce near? president trump saying his upcoming meeting with president xi will work out for both countries. >> stocks set to rally at the open new records within striking distance the s&p closing out its best first half since 1998. >> and playing down the trade risks, nike delivering strong revenues in the fourth quarter, customers buying more sneakers and sports gear and china sales surging. first up, the markets. stocks getting ready to wrap up a strong month the s&p 500 on track for its best june since 1955 for the dow, best june since 1938 heading into the final session of the first half, all three major indices are up double digits year to date, led by the nasdaq with a 20% gain europe is higher this morning, hopes are bui

i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange could the party at the pantry being under threat consumertaple stocks sitting near record highs but general mills getting crushed today after disappointing earnings, which is dragging on the whole sector bill baruch and mark tepper. bill, looks like a bear market in cereal here is this something you would fight or try to essentially, you know, say no thanks to these consumer staple stocks >>. >> general mills is going through hurdles. i don't think it's indicative of the entire sector. look at this chart going back to 2017 you can see a divergence between gis and the xl peak massively. what i'm looking at, general mills, more health-conscious consumer and healthier more natural options weighing on their sales. not too much of a higher price point. but i still love xlp love this sector the global growth is not really that great right now and i think that favors the defensive sector overall, the chart looks really well too and you can see on the chart, it did break out earlier this year and retested the breakout. so i think you have a great fl

i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange netflix rallying today, but check out its moves for theear the streaming stock stuck on pause since january, and its tightest trading range ever, according to bestoke trading group. katie and john are your trading nation team to break down netflix today. katie, how does it look? a little bit of a sideways action pretty good distance below its former highs how does it set up for you >> netflix really needs this oversold bounce because it preserves support at the 200 moving day average that's defined the bottom boundary of its trading range. there's a couple things working for the chart. it's in a long-term up trend we look at reinches in long term up trends as continuation patterns, and of course, strong support and a strong tape. we need to see some kind of breakout, of course, from this range for a positive long-term technical catalyst, but netflix is oversold after having underperformed it's at this proving ground right now in its chart >> john, do you think netflix can prove itself here? obviously, there's been some rush of enthusiasm f

joining us to discuss rbc lead analyst mark mahaney and at post nine, our commentator mike santoli.ou do with something this specific where the risk/reward may be very large, but the time to get there is also very large. >> right i think the most immediate place the market is going to go is maybe it restrains the valuation of these companies it caps the valuations if you look last year at the highs in these stocks and pretty much they're all down 20% or so from their peaks, the valuations and the reason that they were sort of the go to for everybody for growth was that their growth long term was almost automatic and the platforms were impenetrable and those are the reasons they're under fire i do think that you can say if they can show continued earnings growth you count on that this is the kind of market you probably see a little bit of a reflex of rotation into big cap growth stocks like these, simply because, you know, growth in general is kind of challenged. very low yields. looking for steady cash flows. i don't think the market will handicap outcomes and figure out breakups an

. >> thank you >> still ahead, mike santoli the market >> for has been a tough run at let's a look athing 0.1% not quite a record closing high the dow was at session lows or the nasdaq down a quarter of 1%. the indeces for the week health gains for all of them 2.3% let's go over to mike for the >> just to carry on the look at the index compared to you see it over the past five years. not a big surprise s & within ban, that has not 2017 they divided by the price of oil. either of the classes. this i why i think the stock obviou back here, it was this iwe can be okay in >> i wonder what the chart would have looked like >> in 2008, this was headed almost 3,000 now >> between 40 and ats, as long it doesn't effect the economy. >> not in a decisive way >> hey, sue. to more than 35,000 pounds they make it the largest cocaine hall through customs they put the street valley at $1.1 billion >> under president trump we will hunt d traffickers unturn >> michigan state authorities doctor it is the latest attempt to commun the rapper cardi b indicted on the rapper and her entourage she is expected

i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange check out gold rallying this month and touching a six-year high is this a beginning of a breakout for the metal that some consider money mark and michael are your trading nation team today. mark, obviously, gold manages to crack through the upside of this trading range it had been in for years now. what does it say to you at the moment it's maybe running a little hot, but others are looking for momentum to continue >> yeah, a couple things, mike this is a very constructive move in gold. the bulls have been watching for this move for over five years. it's finally happened. for the gld, getting up above 130 is very constructive in the intermediate term. the real issue, though, is momentum has gotten very overbought in a short period of time gld is up since may. up at 134. overall, a very good move. in the short term, though, i think it's right to look the other way for a few different reasons. one is that rsi and daily charts is up to near an 87, and on a weekly basis, at 78. the highest since 2011 the second is that you have at least near term

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i'm mike santoli fedex stock down ahead of its earnings after the bell tomorrow stock flat this yearhat's its smallest annual move ever to this point also, sharply off its september high, down nearly 40% from that peak harry and john are your trading nation time today. take us through how you'retrans the fact they have been relative underperformers and how fedex fits into some of that >> there's not a call to be made here for fedex we're actually overweight the industrial sector. we really like the sector as a whole, more so the capital good side transports have been more a market performer, how we see it. there's pockets. i would stick with the rails rather than fedex. here's what you have to know about fedex. trying to stabilize at $151. there's support here, that's a december low, but here's the thing. look at the 200-day moving average. it's still slopes definitively lower. that's indicative of a lower trend. it suggests strength should be sold rather than weakness bought stock also making a new relative low versus the market. so instead of fedex i would put you in a sector spide

i'm david faber along with sara oo eisen and mike santoli we're live from the new york stock exchangeres as we start trading here on a thursday as you can see, i don't know, i need santoli to explain what's going on there >> santoli >> that's what i

i'm david faber with sara eisen and mike santoli, live from the new york stock exchange.s on assignment. a look at futures. we get started with trading, half hour from now, here from the new york stock exchange. looking up not as much as we were

thank you, mike santoli.bit mo, re with our guest host, florida senator, former governor, senator, governor, rick scott. and it really shows. with all that usaa offers why go with anybody else? we know their rates are good, we know that they're always going to take care of us. it was an instant savings and i should have changed a long time ago. it was funny because when we would call another insurance company, hey would say "oh we can't beat usaa" we're the webber family. we're the tenney's we're the hayles, and we're usaa members for life. ♪ get your usaa auto insurance quote today. ♪ what do advisors look for don't just track an index, help me meet a client's need. is the fund built to sell or built to last? etfs are only part of a portfolio. so make it easy to explain. give me a quality fund that helps me get clients closer to their goals. flexshares etfs are designed and managed around investor objectives. so you can advise with confidence. before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risk

mike santoli with us taking a look at the anatomy of a comeback. >> the tone of this comeback is somewhat least to keep the stock market at these levels we had a 6.5% decline from the beginning of may, down through very early june. we've had this comeback. here was the downswing this is from may 3rd to june 3rd. the middle line right here is the s&p 500. that's in white. the orange line is the s&p low volatility index, the defensive stocks you see how they did fine. they held the market up, kept it from going deeper. s&p hb, that's the more aggressive stocks, the high beta stocks, they had a tough time of it that's natural as the market goes down. they did their job now, look at it since that point. this is basically the last six days or so that we've had this comeback and, of course, we have the reverse, finally especially in the last two days, we've had the more aggressive tocks, the high beta stocks leading the way. you have semiconductors, the transports yesterday that were doing their part the question is can the aggressive stuff, the more cyclical ones carry the weight as treasury y

." >> still with us mike santoli. the dow down by 0.7% s&p down about 1%.1 p.5% clear profit taking. microsoft stands out price target was upgraded, but it reiterated its underperform rati rating >> and i went to check on some of the moves of the recent ipos because yesterday we saw a big move lower and people were wondering is this a sign of risk aversion there 1 stiis still demand and continue to watch it >> consumer confidence in new homes sales, saw yields slip off the back of that another riskoff sentiment. the ten year did close below 2%, 1.9972, first time that has happened since november 2016 >> and we're in earnings watch results from both fedex and micron set to hit any minute pl we'll bring you the results. and first off let's talk about the market day mike, first to you on the groups and action that stood out most >> it was pretty clear that this new high we made in stocks was contingent on pretty specific things at least in the very short term which is reassurance that the fed will be fairly aggressive on the easing side. that the economy could

>>> talking about the broad ipo wave, renaissance capital i ipo etf manager kathleen smith and mike santolia pattern with new issues. >> priced above the range, open relatively strong. that's been the rule i think it is how you draw it up i think beyond meat is a singular phenomenon. it doesn't have to do with general investor sentiment or where the market is at now just kind of hit this zeitgeist a little bit when it comes to something like chewy, you always usually -- ipo sector, you have some, private equity exits, some young companies, i think it is a decent mix the things you would have been worried about coming in this wave have not come to pass one would have been every deal gets bought very aggressively and goes to the moon and creates this real cycle of froth and speculation. uber and lyft told you that's not going to happen. on the other side, the market says, no, sorry, door closed crowd strikes of the world, start getting criticized that's the inklings of the starting if people say we get greedy that could slow things down >> what is it to you that stands out about the winners,

i'm david faber with sara eisen and mike santoli, live from the new york stock exchange.im has the day off. carl is on assignment. a look at futures. we get started with trading, half hour from now, here from the new york stock exchange. looking up not as much as we were when i was checking in around 6:00 a.m. to "squawk box" but still looking up road map this morning, it starts with a potential trade boost, stocks as you saw pointing to what would be a pretty good open at least if you're long after treasury secretary mnuchin said there is a path to a deal with china. >> plus, trade head winds hitting home, fedex saying the ongoing disputes are creating, quote, significant uncertainty for its business outlook. >>> micron surging this morning, this on strong quarterly results. the chipmaker also resuming some sales to huawei and forecasting demand recovery this year. >>> stocks are looking to rebound this morning, this after treasury secretary steven mnuchin expressed optimism about trade talks in a cnbc interview. here is what he told hadley gamble in bahrain. >> i'm hope

end there, sometimes confused with me, i will say, which i appreciate, by some of our guests, mike santolipostnine we talked at the end of yesterday, our trio here art called it a consolidation day. you sort of had similar words for it. >> that's right now what the market is telling us is you achieved new highs, waiting on a few big et is going to be sensitive making sure no one wants to outright call the market assumptions out about a july rate cut so far we haven't gotten that. i do think treasury yields are back down again. ten year at 2% still feels like that low and slow playbook, right low yield, slow growth is in play, want to see if that continues. >> you have this very odd picture right now if you look at the markets. you have stocks at record highs. you also have this big reach for negative yielding bonds for bit k coin, for gold they don't yield anything. no safe haven, whatever they are. the dollar is weakening. so once the dollar starts weakening and we're at march levels basically, everything else goes up, like a bitcoin, or like a gold. that's what is happening >> opening be

. >>> 14 minutes until the close all three major averages positive let's send it back to mike santoliten a thursday we look at the weekly aai retail sentiment investor for a bit of a mood check on retail investors and showing a lot of caution out there and lack of conviction despite the fact the s&p did click to a new high last week. you're seeing more bears than bulls. the survey respondents are asked how do you think of stocks the next six months. here is the currently reading. bulls here and bears there you see a lot of neutrals in there. a net bullish signal when the market is at a new high and people are not buying the high buy. i highlighted two other periods you saw extremes this is mid december of last year here you see massive advantage up there over bulls. a pretty fat pitch in terms of saying the sentiment is washed out. the high for this current run was may 9th, the week of may 9th. you saw modest advantage of bulls over bears basically, retail investors are agnostic on this market. maybe we need better headlines for the companies to get the retail for highs to get on boar

i'm david faber along with sara oo eisen and mike santoli we're live from the new york stock exchange let's give you a look at futures as we start trading here on a thursday as you can see, i don't know, i need santoli to explain what's going on there >> santoli >> that's what i said. >> i thought you said santelli >> you're always here to correct my >> ademocratic showdown. candidates take aim at big business, spar over health care in their first 2020 presidential debate >> and boeing shares under pressure this morning, amid growing u growi growing uncertainty about when the 737 max is going to return to service let's talk markets this morning. trade continues to be the focus, as it has been for so long it does appear at least according to reporting from "the wall street journal" that we've gotten a series of potential points from xi as to what his expectations may be. the key one amongst them, certainly tying trade specifically to the treatment of washington w huawei, which has been such an important component overall. we want to get to kayla, who i think joins us now she's with pre

mike santoli is here, cnbc senior markets commentator your thoughts on the transaction and what it meansdominos among the rivals and competitors of these companies. >> sure. >> what they're waking up to. >> yesterday's headlines was bristol. is that going to get delayed now this big merger coming too this is about growth we are at that stage -- >> hold on, is this about growth or savings >> combination of both keeping your earnings per share and growing your share cutting costs, which they're going to do and finding other product. you're doing this because you're looking to keep your multiple up and keeping -- you want your stock to actually go up. at this point we're so late that all these ceos -- this is not going to be just pharmaceuticals but other sectors you will see this -- because as you find more and more ability to merge, i think that's where you're going to see more action. >> you look at the premium on this transaction what are we saying, 45 plus? >> that's -- >> that's substantial. >> what does that tell you that means it's scarcity of deals. ceos will be looking for opportu

economist and barclays and cnbc senior markets commentator, mike santoli i think we'll see tomorrow fore start with you, michael, is a recession staring us in the face right now >> i don't think so right now. i think what we are looking at is something that feels more like the industrial recession of 2015 and '16 maybe localized to the goods sector, that's at least what the trade data is telling us but the job market data overall things are still good. >> one of the people talking about this, and there are a lot -- >> sure. >> what's the main data point that they're using it to judge the yield curve? >> so, no, i would say three data points in april that bothered types like myself, the industrial production report and the durables report. and then the april trade balance. all three of those took our tracking estimates from equipment spending from kind of plus five to minus five. >> you think that explains what happened in the ten year >> no. in terms of it suggests there could be a lull in activity that you believe the fed should respond to in a risk management mode, but it does not yet

i'm sara eisen with wilfred frost and mike santoli jim, carl and david all have the morning off.we're building toward a higher open on wall street. dow up 107 points. s&p up 9 nasdaq up 16 final day of the month of the quarter of the first half of the year, all looking pretty

economist and cnbc's markets commentator mike santoli, also economics reporter steve liesman. exaggerated. this revision to april is very good news. the solid number in the control group, missing by 0.1% on the top end doesn't bug me at all. it is a little weird this data has been unusually choppy, and i don't know if it has to do with the weirdness of when easter fell or all this other stuff. been saying for a while, you have decent wage growth, widespread employment. there's no reason why the consumer shouldn't be doing well and this back revision kind of helps to square the circle on that, in that april is -- as rick said, 0.5% better than we originally thought, and may is pretty solid department stores, they were up, now they're down miscellaneous stores were up, now they're down but the strength was in health personal care, sporting goods, and hobbies. i think we're on a good track now. we may even get an upward revision to the second-quarter growth forecast as a result of this. >> so, constance, what does this do to all those who are concerned about an approaching recess