still wrapping up years later. >> still there >> sue, thank you. >>> well, let's send it over to mike santoliond dashboard. mike >> morgan, looking at some baby bears. late last year we started to talk about the precedent for the market to have these mini bear markets, down 20% or so in a short period of time then a strong rebound when there was no recession immediately imminent so here is a tracking of those three prior episodes this is from fidelity. '94, '98, 2011 those are the colored lines. the white line is the average of those experiences. they're lined up with their market lows right here the yellow line is the current path you see we're tracking relatively well compared to those other averages if i would make a cautionary note in terms of extrapolating from here, in all those other times, the economy did react sell rate after you did get a dovish move by global central banks, and also in 1994, there really wasn't as much of a decline. that was a little bit of a different platform we were building off of. so it's not necessarily the case that, you know, this is all going to work out g

mike santoli found it out for us. >> are investors paying too high a price for the promise of certainty in the markets right now? what with global growth faltering and central bank policy shifting fast, investors haveushed into areas they believe offer a more predictable ride. these include bonds, the supposedly boring stable companies, and the dominant growth companies in technology. some quarter trillion dollars of fresh cash has gone intoond funds this year. the shares of consumer staples and other slow-growth dividend-paying blue chips are up even more than the s&p 500's 19% gain d toe and amazon and long-term with their growth outlook have powered large cap indexes higher by 24% this year. on the losing side are cheap stocks and banking, transportation andal pharmas that need the economy to quicken or policy shadows to lift. the powerful preference for in perceived certy right now is understandable given slowing growth and mixed messages about fed policy.s ther always a chance these trends could go too far. a s iilar trend 2016 after l the president election, for instance. it's tou

for "nightly business report", i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange. >>> focus wls on thensportation sector after csx issued weak guidance, which you might remember we told you about last night. the stock fell 1, its bigge one-day drop since 2008, and the has some wondering if conomyst sector of the warning of a freight recession. frank holland has that part of the story. >> with unemployment near record lows, inflation a nonfactor and retail sales rising, all signs are pointing to a strong u.s. economy. the transportation sretary sector may be pointing to something el. railroads and oth logistical companies are the life blood of the company, moving goods across the country. the more ty move, the stronger the economy. is happeningt wha at one of the biggest railroad operators. the ceo of csx warning business won't be as strong as expected for the rest of the year, leading to concerns of a potential freight recession, an economy as a u.s whole is slowing down. >> the present economic backdrop is one of the most puzzling i have experienced in my career. any of our industrial

. >>> let's go over to mike santoli to the dashboard he likes this time of day. >> we're going to keep it real day. not much movement. wait until later this about patterns and how stocks are traded, more skewing later in the day, and then hard to get excited, and some emonth, so we're waiting for netflix we'll comb through it in about at hour, here as the big picture, though. this is movie tickets sold since 2002, and number the film releases both heading down, both down more than 20%. we focus more on paid tv subscribers, and of course that's down more than 10% in the last let's call it six or seven years. not claiming it's all coming from the box office losses, but it's very start exactly how this has gone right now, this is a summer where there is a lot of panic out there. >> this is real depressing, what is up with your theme? >> i did a personal growth self-help theme one time and that seemed fake >> you're saying millennial ruined hollywood is that the big -- >> yes, no offense to david's presence here. >> yeah, i think i'll just take not much movement for 500. i caught that refe

impacted their growth and operating margins, plummeting more than 15%, almost 16%. >>> send it now to mike santolihboard of the day. mike. >> the consumer is really riding this economy pretty much with a lot of confidence. let's look at the consumer confidence indicator over a very long-term period of time big bounce today as you guys mentioned earlier, back towards the cycle highs, and actually, not very far off the all-time highs right there from the year 2,000. a lot of folks said how can the fed be cutting rates with consumer confidence in this level. i'll point back as we keep pointing back to the mid-90s right here, this little congestion there, that was right before the fed cut rates in mid-1995 it was a near miss on a recession, a global slowdown, and then things picked up from there. it's not unprecedented i would also point to 1998 was another time when we had a little bit of a switch back in confidence and the fed was cutting rates. where consumer confidence is not inconsistent with thefed easin at least slightly and at least for a short period of time. >> the bears would say hey, consu

over to mike santoli for today's market dashboard >> what could possibly go wrong. a mystery chart we will get to then current mood, check in on sentiment. name, more iconic duo than what i'm going to show you at the back half of this hour keep calm and carry on markets are in a calm mode right now. here's a mystery chart not going to ask you to guess what it is, but i would ask you look at the shape of this chart and say, would i want to buy this thing, own it, bet that the trend is going to continue is it perhaps a little bit overheated in the short term i would point out a couple things one, this vertical move right there, this vertical move right there, and you see when it starts to accelerate, maybe it's time to bet it's going to calm down a little bit. it's a ratio of the nasdaq 100 to the russell 2,000 the fact that it started at 100 might be a hint it's a relative chart. over the past five years the nasdaq 100 has outperformed the russell by more than 50 percentage points. you would say the trend looks good hard to say it's going to lose steam, except it has

sue, thank you >>> let's send it over to mike santoli for a second dashboard. >> this is about the grum py bon market the treasury market did not lift at all in terms of yield when you got the news this week of this trade truce between the u.s. and china those yields remain well anchored this is a look at how fast the yields have declined and how far they are from their 200 day average. this is a measure of the velocity of the recent compression in yields. it has gone down more than 20% below the 200 day average. when have you also seen it reach these lines, back in late 2011, european debt crisis, here we go in -- early 2015 and then this one, i think, is significant. mid-2016, that's when you had the ultimate low in bond yields. each time you had lift in bond yields and it would seem with measures of bond market sentiment, showing lots of bullishness on bonds, people banking on lower yields, you would think it wouldn't take much in the way of economic data to have yields pop higher. we have been waiting for that for a while. the market has not given that. almost as if treasury traders

first let's start with mike santoli.would you categorize the market do you have another food analogy for us >> not a food analogy, but digesting, very pleasantly so. the market had stood still most of the day, which means they kind of declined, excuses to go down such as most bank stocks down it seemed as if we he had to kind of ask the question ahead of earnings if the market had already priced in a lot of the good that's expected to come, which would be companies beating earnings forecast as they always do at a rate of about 70%. and, of course, the fed picture with yields anchored pretty low. i think today you could say it was a push the bulls and the bears more or less at a stand still. when you're at record highs, that's a net positive. >> another, mike, day where we rallied into the close >> sometimes they call it a procrastinator's rally some people want the market to come in, give them a chance to buy at a slightly lower price. it probably also reflects that this rally has taken most people by surprise somewhat,

or . >>> let's send it over to mike santoli for his final dashboard of the day mike, it's out of thisld >> i wasn't too subtle with the theme today? >> i liked it. >> i appreciate it morgan will appreciate that, that you recognized it small steps, giant leaps let's look at this chart that relates what global central banks are doing to what global stocks indexes are doing the bottom line is the net number of central banks that are cutting rates, that are easing policy, when this line is going up, this blue line it means more central banks are cutting rates. obviously it's gone from more tightening to more cutting but modestly so. there is an expectation it will go higher with the fed potentially cutting rates here it resembles this year around 2011-2012, that's the bull case. you turn from tightening to cutting rates and all of a sudden global stock markets benefit, however, that's only if you don't get a global recession in the mix because it didn't really work here when you were doing it in the early 2000s. stock markets go down. clearly it's all about whether this is a proactive mov

mike santoli has today's market dashboards what have you got for us today, mike >> all right, here is on the sleet. first, should we fear the cheer? it's going to be our thursday sentiment check right here then, i think i'm going to need a ruling on this i'm sayi ining lol at vol could lol be pronounced like that, like an acronym? i'll say yes for these purposes. applaud, it's broad, that would be the market being relatively broad coming into today. and from cheap to steep, that's one part of this tape that seems like it's going to get a little bit expensive. so, fear the cheer let's look at a couple different readings of investor sentiment first of all, professionals or investment advisory services this is the investors intelligence poll, it comes out every week and on top it's just the s&p 500. at bottom is the spread between bulls and bears. so, when this goes up, it means that a lot more bulls than bears, and it maybe is a little bit of a contrarian signal this is from jeff degraff. so, we're pretty much in the 90th percentile. it's getting a little bit elevated but keep in mind,

let's bring in tom lee and mike santoli both with us here at post nine.beyond meat's run-up to this report indicative of the investor sentiment we're seeing in the market? tom, is it >> i think the run-up really shows how the market has started to put a big premium on execution stories, rather than valuation sensitivity. i think it's even handling today's news quite well. you know, this massive increase in shares should have destroyed the stock. and 10% is kind of a mild pullback >> exactly it's all relative, right we're still talking about a name that three months ago when it ipo'd, it's up 800%. since then, i think it begs the question, mike santoli, especially when you do see the ceo also selling some of the shares and doing it earlier than the six-month lockup, could you look at this as a potential market top >> i wouldn't say it absolutely, clearly is a market top. first of all, there weren't enough shares out there to absorb all of the big picture enthusiasm for this long-term story about plant-based meat, obviously. so getting more shares out there

i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange amazon hovering below its record highs ahead of earnings later this week. one trader says the stock is primed for a major breakout. craig johnson of piper jaffray and mike are your trading nation team today so craig, this is your call here the stock is still three or four percent below its old highs. take us through why you think a breakout might be here >> when i look at the longer term chart on amazon and look at really the big consolidation range we have seen in the chart from about 1360 to about 2030, if i was to stand this particular base up, measure it out,ia could look at a move toward 2700. and mike, this aligns very nicely with mike olson's call who is looking for 3,000 by mid2021, and from our perspective, the moon and stars seem to be aligning here technically and fundamentally. >> it wod be a pretty big move up to 2700 probably not in a straight line, but mark, do you see the fundamental makings for something like that. we're still pushing a trillion dollar market value here with amazon all right, sorry, mark mark can't hear us

mike santoli has his third dashboard. understand this one, mike. >> courtney, checking in on the race between the tortoise and the hare two segments of the market operate that way the financial stocks have actually retained their gains, despite the fact that bond yields pull back here is the bank index, kbw bank intext etf along with the qqq nasdaq 100 dominated by big tech over the last three weeks or so. in white, the banks. they've caught up here another day or so back, they basically crossed. this is happening when, obviously, we're talking about fed cuts, treasury yields staying low and the banks have managed to do okay obviously the earnings have come through fine one-year chart of this same relationship, you see how much distance there is between these two. there's a lot of ground for the tortoise to make up right here, holding well above the recent lows you have that big of a spread right there. obviously, you can't fully say there's been an inflection here but definitely a relationship worth keeping an eye on. let

for "nightly business report" i'm mike santoli. >>> we're just about halfway through the current earningsorting season and we hnee le that some, but not all companies are being hurt by the trade war with. chi coke, for example, saw growth in the asia-pacific region. lvmh pointed to strong demand, especially in cheen au. texas instrument has seen growth in 5g proctsut caterpillar ted -- and las vegas sands noted weaker cash flow from macau. 's after all of this we earnings reports and this morning's gdp report it becomes clear we aost have two economies. things look good when the consumer is involved, not so goodhen you talk trade. what's an investor to do with th duel economy? joining us, we welcome liz anne saunders with charles schwab. good to see you. >> good to see you too. >> there are clear haves and have notes right now. what do you do with it when investing in the stock market ri now? >> we think it is an environment, given some of the things you mentioned, the bifurcation where you have some decent strength in domestic industries c on thesumer side of the economy, but weakness in

we're live at the nasdaq market site i'm melissa lee along with joe occur in an and mike santoli becky and andrew are on assignment take a check on u.s. futures right now looks like a down opening across the board dow indicated lower 129, s&p looking to be down 14, nasdaq down 55. of course building on the losses in yesterday's session overnight in asia, a negative day across the board hang seng down by three quarters of a percent nikkei managing to eek out a 0.01 gain. in europe, being weighed down by deutsche bank. red arrows across europe and treasury yields, since that jobs report, holding on to 92% level on the ten year and there we are again, 2.068% speaking of hong kong, leader carrie lam speaking out in an attempt to quell protests, she said the controversial extradition bill that sparked the demonstrations is, quote, dead lam said there is no plan to restart the legislation and earlier work to amend the bill has been a failure lam suspended the bill but protests continued with calls for it to be withdrawn completely lam did not say that she is officially withdrawing the bill.

longelut what to expect later on "csi bl. >>> let's send it over to mike santoli for the final dashboardsing? >> walls, buildings. it was a little flimsy today, i grant that but this one i think is interesting. betting the house, so there's a report in "the wall street journal" pointing out as many have that the biggest four stocks in the s&p 500 account now for an outsized amount of the gains this year but i went back into history. is this really unusual to have the biggest four companies in the market represent a large chunk of the s&p 500 the answer will be no. so 13% right now if you go back to 1960, very, very concentrated with huge industrial companies we'll get to the names in a little bit and dip down. been below in 1990 it was not shown but 9% but there were types when market cap was more spread out. the fact we're at 13% doesn't seem that extraordinary in terms of large companies running things let's look at the actual companies that o are in there. of course, right now we can get to in a second, 1960, at&t, recurser of exxon, standard oil of new jersey known as esso, gm and du

a wild fed day >> we're along tsai mike santoli. let's check in on the market's close.id have a little batch of the selling into the close, down 1.24%. we're off the lows, but nonetheless clearly a day of selling after fed chair jerome powell said we're in a mid cycle adjustment the market took that as meaning not as much cuts as expected, and all sectors ended lower. >> he cuts rate today as an insurance cut to protect against a downturn he also said it it's not the start of a long easing cycle, but it's not necessarily one and down >> the dollar i would point out ending up 0.6%, the euro down to the 110 handled, clearly the rate cut not delivering looser conditions. >> everyone will be looser >>> we have an action-packed hour ahead we'll bring you the numbers as soon as we get them. >>> and jim grant will join us in a few moments to get hi instant reaction >>> plus jeffries' david zervos. remember when he performed to cut his hair when the fed cut rates. he's making good on the promise. he's got all kinds of comment tears from jared leto's references, "game of thrones

mike santoli, thank you for hanging out.y morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." buckle up for earnings a third of the s&p reports this week, including amazon, facebook, cat, boeing, tesla and more we'll watch that china trade, this guessing game that is the fed right now. europe is green, oil obviously is key with the detention of those uk tankers in iran our roll back begins with the busiest

s&p closes higher, this would be its third straight day of record closes let's send it over to mike santolior today's market dashboard. hi, mike >> hi, contessa. here's what we have ahead for you. going to get into some self-evident truths about why the market has traded up to where it has and then created equal. going to take a look at how democratic this rally has been impelled to separate there are some key indexes that have gone their own way. some key divergences and then the pursuit of happiness which is a check on investor sentiment. that's later on. some self-evidence truths. obviously the stock index at a record high. the bond yields at close to 2 1/2-year lows. almost three-year lows by the way, july 8th, 2016 was the all-time low in the ten-year treasury yield that anniversary is monday here's the s&p dividend yield compared to the ten-year note yield. what you see over here, of course, is we have nosed below it again the ten-year treasury yield is below the dividend yield of the s&p above 2% on a forward going basis. obviously, we spent a lot of time here when you had stocks yie

squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm wilfred frost and mike santoli joe, becky and andrew are all off today. our guest post, peter, and cnbc contributor. let's check in on the futures this morning coming off the back of a full percent or so for the selling in asia, less than that in europe, down .2%. but we're down 95 points on the dow this morning of course, coming off the back of a very strong week last week, the s&p 500 as a whole up 1.6% led by communication services. ten were higher energy the only decliner last week was down about a percent or so. asia overnight as i mentioned a little lore. we did get japanese factory orders which were disappointing down 7.8% in may they were expected to fall only 5% we're down full 1.5% as you can see in hong kong a little more than that in shanghai 2.6%. european equities are lower, down around about 0 -- where do we look on the screens 0.1% there we go, down 0.2% in france, italy holding on to slight gains we did get some better than expected german industrial production data up 0 .3% in may. it was expected

. >> you bet >>> now let's get to mike santoli for "trading nation. mike >> melissa, thank you very much. check out gold getting a bid today after billionaire hedge fund manager ray dalio picked the asset as a top investment, calling it a diversification play and what he calls a paradigm shift katie stockton and nancy tangler our trading nation team today. katie, gold has had a good run surged above i guess about a six-year high recently, settled out a little bit where does it look to you right now in terms of where it's headed in ex >> we saw major base break out in gold in june and gaps in the likes of gld and the gold prices have managed to hold that gap, which i see as a positive development the consolidation phase now appears to be resolved to the up side and that really frees up gold to see some up side follow thrthro. the next resistance is around 1590, based on the fibonacci replacement levels and i think that up side is very realistic for gold, based on that base breakout we have seen. >> all right pretty significant move from here if it gets

. >> now over to mike santoli for trading nation mike >> scott, thank you very much.ore bad news for boeing after it reported a sharp drop in first half deliveries. but the stock is proving resilience, recovering from earlier losses to move slightly higher on the day. is the worst over for boeing todd gordon and steve chevron of federated investors, our trading nation today todd, a long kind of sideways period for boeing shares does it retain the benefit of the doubt at this point, do you think, or not? . it's hanging on by a thread. before we go into boeing, let's look at the xli, the industrial. boeing happens to be the largest holding in xli we have some concern here. xli barely holding on to the 2en-day moving arg xli, into the s&p, that is declining indicating industrials are significantly underperforming and being that boeing is the largest holding, that's problematic looking at boeing specifically, there is hope. without getting too much into the math here, if we look at each of the declines over the last four years, they're roughly 25% to 30% we're right at a

i'm mike santoli it is a tale of two chip stocks with micron higher and advanced micro lower.better bet now? our trading nation team today, craig, amd was really the clear outperformer among these two for the past year or so, the last maybe month micron has made a catch-up move. what do you see them doing from here >> from a relative perspective i'm going to be betting on the micron here. it's poised to break out i think micron has the edge. >> obviously these companies operate in somewhat different segments how does that all play into what you would prefer to bet on here if there was one you would prefer over another? >> mike, i like micron as well not only did it go down with the dram pricing glut, 50% of micron's revenues from china so it's extremely susceptible to headline risk. this is a stock now seeing a rebound with the dram pricing should correlate with nice bump in revenue a great sheet. forward earnings are going to be improving. it can play catch-up we're long micron and i would be a buyer here >> all right i guess headline risk is headline opportunity depending on

mike santoli, thank you for hanging out. "squawk on the street" starts right now. >>> good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." buckle up for earnings a third of the s&p reports this week, including amazon, facebook, cat, boeing, tesla and more we'll watch that china trade, this guessing game that is the fed right now. europe is green, oil obviously is key with the detention of those uk tankers in iran our roll back begins with the busiest week of earnings as the president once again targets the fed. huawei restrictions relief tech executives expected to make their case to the white house today. and equifax to pay as much as $700 million for that 2017 data breach we'll start with futures, though, set for a higher open. the dow, s&p and nasdaq all lower in three of the past four trading days big week for earnings. we'll hear from phobia, amazon, alphabet we're a week away from the fed's decision on rates. and then the president today is tweeting it's far more costly for the fed to cut deeper if the economy actua

mike santoli >>> back to starbucks.res are up this morning sales in its top two markets, u.s. and china, climbing at least 6% for the quarter that is same store sales and comps. company increasing the forecast. joining us now first on cnbc is starbucks president and ceo kevin johnson. always nice to have you, kevin we're a long way from that morning you and i shared in boston, i think june of '18, where things were a bit tougher and you really delivered over this last let's call it 14 months i guess given a quarter like this, my question and those of investors is can you keep it going? the 7% comp number in the u.s. seems somewhat extraordinary >> well, david, you're right a year ago we outlined our growth at scale agenda growth at scale for us is all about focusing on the most important things and then executing with discipline. and that's what's driven our results. certainly q3 was a very strong quarter for us but growth at scale is more about driving predictable sustainable growth for the long-term. and so much of th

i'm wilfred frost with morgan brennan and mike santoli at the new york stock exchange.im, carl and david have the day off. futures took a little bit of a dive after we got that nonfarm payrolls number, which was much stronger than expected to the tune of 224,000 jobs added, well above the 165,000 forecast dow jones futures down 100 points nasdaq down 46 we're higher by 1.5 to 2% for the week as a whole for the three indices. road map starts with 30 minutes after the jobs number, good news is bad news again. over 200,000 added in the month of june. >> that has stock records in the rear view mirror as data may ease pressure on the fed to cut rates. futures in retreat, moving sharply lower to start the morning. >> while the u.s. is on holiday, europe took out the elegant gun on big tech. both parties in the uk back to target big tech and france moving forward on attacks on the likes of facebook and google the employment rate ticked up to 3.7% as more people entered the workforce. wage growth slowed a little bit in june, but remained at 3.1% year over year for a second stra

. >> let's send it back to mike santoli. >> eating machines in this case are systematic, quantitativetment funds that have been fe feasting on stocks the blue line is the leverage or aggressiveness, and the large positions of systematic investors which basically use these formulas to decide what their exposures to extiquities going to be. they have been lift allocations to equities. yields are low volatility is low. as long as that's the case and the trending market is higher, they will ratchet up exposure. these are discretionary hedge fund managers. if you see it's basically been the kwanquantities, the massive divergence, we're not there yet, it does give an indication of who the incremental buyer has been on this orderly rally of new highs. let's get to rick santelli. >> two day of tense tells you everything you need to know. we're not going anywhere quickly. a drift down one basis point you can see this is the 9th session we're going to be closing in ultra tight range between a yield of 2.02 and 2.08 the stellar performer of late has been the dollar intdex. at one point today it

first up, though, mike santoli on what you took away from the market action. >> obviously resilient the&p took back about four days' worth of mild losses and obviously we're in that one-week lead up to a fed meeting. tends to be a slight positive bias headline on trade, vague, nonspecific, repetitive to what we already knew and yet had a positive effect and showed you traders looking -- >> the fact they're going to have a face-to-face meeting. >> reported elsewhere it would happen next week and struck the market at the right spot at the right time the reaction matters more than what the news stub stance was which told you looking for an excuse to buy. more new lows than highs on 9 nasdaq rotational and big industrials really were too negative on guidance three months ago and now correcting for that and so i think net positive picture. >> ian, despite positive trade headlines you're still pocused on the fed more than anything. >> yeah, i still continue to think that that's what's driving the rally. people continue to, you know, rotate into the stock market because incrementally it just m

we're live at the nasdaq market site i'm melissa lee along with joe occur in an and mike santoli beckyssignment take a check on u.s. futures right now looks like a down opening across the board dow indicated lower 129, s&p looking to be down 14, nasdaq down 55. of course building on the losses in yesterday's session overnight in asia, a negative day across the board hang seng down by three quarters of a percent nikkei managing to eek out a 0.01 gain. in europe, being weighed down by deutsche bank. red arrows across europe and treasury yields, since that jobs report, holding on to 92% level on the ten year and there we are again, 2.068% speaking of hong kong, leader

i'm mike santoli small caps could be flashing a warning sign check out this chart from bespoke, the russell000 at its lowest since the financial crisis which way will they break next let's bring in matt mailee and chad morgan. matt, interpret this dynamic for us conflicting arguments, one that says you want to see small caps participate or lead in a bull market the other says, you know what, if doesn't always matter if they lag. the overall market can still do fine >> yeah, i am very concerned about those that say that the small caps really don't matter too much yes, there have been a few occasions where an underperformance hasn't hurt the market overall but there has been so many other times where it's been a very big warning signal i mean, we saw it last year. we saw it in 2015, '14, 2011, 2007, '98, '89 and the crash of 1987 i'm not saying we're going to get a crash, but there are so many other examples where the underperformance has signaled the rest of the market is about to roll over we did see a time where they both rallied nicely at the end of the 1990s so if you think what the fed

mike santoli joins us now. what do you say? >> i say it's obviously at least partially sew. it's part of the context why we're up as much as we are probably not the entire story. it's an unusual cycle, up 20% in the s&p in seven months leading into what is universally anticipated to be a quarter point cut next week. obviously the bond market has been pricing in the this cut fully for at least a month right now. corporate yields which i look at a lot as an anchor, they are now back down to multiyear lows. so whatever financial financial benefits you're going to get it'll take a confirmation of what the fed is going to do. the trend looks higher, maybe what the market is telling us it's not all about the fed because we have a 2% economy with low yields and inflation. seems as though we priced in a lot of what the fed can do and the question is what's behind it, in terms of the 25 to 50, though, i think when you look at the gdp number today, the interpretation of what the fed's up to is it's kind of a technical adjustment they really just need to get short dated treasury yields

i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange deutsche bank tumbling after announcing 18,000 job cuts over the next three years the company calling this restructuring the most fundamental transformation in decades. is there light at the end of the tunnel for deutsche and the rest of the european banks. we have your trading nation team today. so boris, in absolute terms, this really radical shrinkage by deutsche bank is certainly a negative in terms of where its business has been, but what does it mean for perhaps yoeuropean banks taking capacity out of the industry here, and no real systemic issues that seem to have popped up >> that's the one positive thing on the european side no systemic issues and the quality of the book now is a lot better than in the global financial crisis having said this, it's a very different business when you have negative rates and a slowing economy. i can't imagine that the european banks are really going to be good in shape. it's not a sector i want to invest in. the one i would make an exception for is ubs it's an interesting look at a 5.7% dividend yie

mike santoli is' nysc with more. that's why we sound a big run on meat among other stocks. >> reporter: that is certainly the hopes of growth, melissa what i'm looking at is that setting that goldman offers saying look we have spotty growth out there in the world and earnings and we have policy uncertainty. therefore, a big premium placed in the promise of certainty, promise of predictability. it takes a few forms one, obviously we talk about the massive inflows into bonds obviously, you're talking about the certainty of getting your money back at very low yields. that's one element of it that anchors the valuation of other stuff like the boring stocks stocks of steady business that don't do much in the short term. s&p low volatility etf has been tracking the high momentum etf because it trotted into low volume stocks of consumer staples. so that kind of shows you that people are paying up very heavily for this promise of steadiness and i do think it feeds into large mega gap growth stocks of the type you're talking

i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange apple rallying into tomorrow's earnings report afteraid this was the strongest seasonal stretch for the stock, so is this truly a good time to buy this time around harry and dina are your trading nation team today. so ari, put the stock in context for us obviously, a very dramatic reversal off that low in early january after the company warned about poor iphone sales. but the stock has stopped a good deal short of last year's highs. so how does that set up for you? >> it sets up positively, how we see it you know, no view into the earnings report, but generally speaking, we do think this is a good time to buy the stock here's why as we look back at these very, what was wild trading swings in apple, those swings have narrowed, and i think we're now in a position where the stock is showing signs of breaking to the upside that it's reversing the down trend that it had been in since october. and i think this is marking a resumption of what is still a long-term uptrend in the stock so we are expecting new highs, looking ahead. you also have

shares down about 2.5% joining us to discuss, raymond james analyst chris caso and our own mike santolii can tell you what we've got to say we've been cautious on it for a bit of a while and it's really driven by the iphone cycle last year's cycle wasn't very compelling this year's cycle, as we expect, it's not going to be very different. so, you know, kind of more of the same this year what we're hoping for, as you go into 2020, is that perhaps 5g starts to be a catalyst for the shares, but you've got to get through the cycle first. >> what happened to the last half year we spent talking about how services and wearables will make up for whatever weakness there may be in the classic cycle? >> yeah, and that hasn't been our call and the problem -- with the services is that it's just too small as a percentage of the total. so services, as one of the examples, you would have to add, for the video service, about the equivalent of ten netflix to offset what the loss -- you know, the decline in revenue from iphone over the last year so it just gives you a sense of large numbers, because iphon

squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm wilfred frost and mike santoli all off today. our guest post, peter, and cnbc contributor. let's check in on the futures this morning coming off the back of a full percent or so for the selling in asia, less than that in europe, down .2%. but we're down 95 points on the dow this morning of course, coming off the back of a very strong week last week, the s&p 500 as a whole up 1.6% led by communication services. ten were higher energy the only decliner last week was down about a percent or so. asia overnight as

i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange ge powering to its earnings tomorrow the stock surging more than 40% in 2019 on the way to its first positive year in three and its best potential gain in two decades. so can the ge turnaround be trusted? katie stockton and nancy tangler of butcher joseph asset management are your trading nation team today. katie, ge had this very eventful ride over the last few years although in recent months, the stock has kind of settled down, gone pretty much sideways, looking at the chart, can you give the edge either to the bulls or bears here? >> i think it's too early to call it a bullish long-term turnaround obviously, there's been a loss of long-term downside momentum relative to 2017 and 2018, but it's really fallen short of breaking out and solidifying the bullish reversal maybe the earnings report will do that. the resistance level i'm watching is about 1070,o a breakout that's confirmed, meaning you spend a couple weeks above that level that would really solidify a turn around for ge in my eyes which has been range bound and somewhat neutral

i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange check out shares of apple moving nicely higher to lead the dow after the u.s. and china put additional tariffs on the back burner to continue trade negotiations is it safe to jump into this trade sensitive stock here matt and chad are your trading nation team today. so, matt, apple's got a decent little head of steam right here, but where does it sit now? right above the $200 level, obviously still a good deal below last year's highs. >> well, it's at a key technical juncture right now, at least on an intermediate term basis this huge rally it's seen this year, especially the most recent one, 16% in one month, has taken it up, right up the upper line of what's called a symmetrical triangle pattern so if it can break above that, it will be bullish for the stock. however, the more important level is the early may highs, right around $212. you break above that, not only will you get a break of the triangle pattern but a nice high or low, higher sequence, which should give the stock another leg higher but when you're at key technical juncture

i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange tesla shares slipping today as investors await seconduarter delivery numbers which could drop any day now those losses more pain for the stock already on track for its worst year ever. craig johnson of piper jaffray, and quinn are your trading nation team today. craig, this stock, tesla has, has had a decent rebound offer a pretty overstretched condition at the lows. but still, most of its trading range in the last two years is above it how do you see the stock right now? >> you know, mike, you're right. the stock is up 20% over the last month, but you're still down about 33% year to date. when you look at the chart, you'll see this is a stock that had broken below a multihp year consolidation range channel. it's having a nice relief rally in here, but unless the stock can recapture the lower end around 240, i suspect the stock is perhaps going to stall here if it does, look for a whole other leg lower. while our analyst alex potter likes the stock with a $396 price target, technically, we look at this chart with a little bit more of a c

i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange coca-cola shares popping nearly 6% after the beverageiant reported earnings this morning that steak now at all-time highs, what does it mean for the staples trade? mark newton and boris schlossberg are your trading nation team today. mark, i have to say, nearly 6% move in a mega cap beverage company, big in consumer staples, is pretty large in the context of an earnings reaction. what does that tell you about how coca-cola shares are situated and then i guess more broadly, how the staples set up? >> it's been a huge move and the stock has been up about 18% over the last six months. a good move for coke however, really in the last six years, the stock has done largely nothing. so near term, it's been pretty impressive and technically it does still look like coke can make another 4% to 5% on the upside before hitting any resistance important to take a look at the longer term chart of this stock going back since 1996. you see that coke largely was just below these levels back in july of '98 when it last peaked. so it hit around $43 then. th

i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange chip stocks hitting all-time highs today.emiconductor index up 14% in the last month alone. is this a bullish set up or will macro headwinds swat the high-flyers? matt and gina sanchez are part willing your "trading nation" team today with the semis leading and making new highs, typically a good sign for the broader markets and maybe the economy, but this group is now running pretty hot, isn't it >> exactly i'm quite conflicted on this one, because the fundamental backdrop isn't very good there is no question, the fact that the smh has been able to make a new higher high is bullish. the one thing, though, as you mentioned, it's running hot. it's overbought. you look at the rsi chart, it's more overbought than in april just before it began a 17% correction and more overbought than it was on several occasions in the last 18 months just before the group rolled over and, you know, when we have made it a higher high, it's only a slight higher high so it looks like it's poised to take a little bit of a breather. however, as conflic

a managing partner at douglas lane as well as a cnbc contributor, mike santoli. arize what we seen in the last week. >> that is a strong move to new highs followed by what i would call very muted pullback, almost just like consolidating those and i don't -- no one is asking me outside, wow, this market's hot. it's hot outside, no one is -- i don't see the froth necessarily although most professionals seem to think that we're very frothy or at least the fundamentals do not justify the levels in the stockmarket. >> i mean i think maybe he can talk to this people that build a earnings model and this is why this stock should act sell rating lighter here maybe don't see as much because the earnings are flattened out if general across the market. i agree with you, the market kind of broke out to a new high. it's been a mild pause or pullback, whatever you want to call it. the problem i think psychologically is that we've had a couple of these breakouts in the last year-and-a-half that didn't really last very long and they unwound i don't think you are seeing signs that

bob pisani and mike santoli here at post nine on what to look for and which print do you think we havehe most confidence in going in that was a question for cramer today. >> which print we're going to hear from this week? >> he thought maybe google had more liability >> well, google's in the penalty box of those four, so i think probably does have the most to have prove also, perceived to be the company that cares about making the number least i don't know if that works for them or against them in terms of setting expectations but this time i think what's going to be most interesting is how the stocks react and what was already built in or was this just kind of a big trade into big cap growth and we're not really talking about the quarterly results. it's just a placeholder type investment or are we really banking on great numbers from the likes of facebook and the others? i mean, microsoft is really interesting. flawless quarter, stock's getting a nice bump, but it's not running away >> what's amazing to me is just how big these companies have become if you look at the numbers and the

mike santoli is back, too.d a little time to look through it marty, you told us last time around it was the net interest income you were concerned about cutting exposure anything else that you think this might tell us about the other banks and what we should be watching for the rest of this earnings season? >> well, what we will make sure of is, you know, we're seeing the pressure in i.i. and we haven't had the fed cut rates. it's not the short term rates moving lower key eighting the pressure this is the aisle end of rising interest rates and funding costs moving higher. we're about to get some relief from that as the fed cuts rates and we're about to see the inverted fed curve invert and that will take a negative away all in all what we're going to see is in i.i. not net interest margin but in i.i. it's growing with a capital story on the back end. share counts are going down 6, 7, some instances 10% which is a really strong catalyst for these banks. >> mike, what do you think the backdrop for the bull case l

welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm melissa lee with joe kernen and mike santoli taking a checkfutures, we're indicated to open at the dow is looking to lose 66 and the s&p 500 down by nine points and the nasdaq losing this morning and the testimony will be released this morning by jerome powell >>> levi's reported a drop due to the ipo from back in march. the shares are down sharply today as the company says sales growth will slow in the second half of the year on weakness in the wholesale business stocks set to open down more than 6%. >>> and top u.s. officials held high level talks with the chinese counterparts yesterday, the first time since the g20 summit that that happened. people say both sides will continue talks but existing tariffs could be quote the new normal. >>> and "friends" no more. netflix is losing the high profile property next year and it will move to hbo max. this is the second big blow to netflix within the past months cnbc parent comcast announced that "the office" is moving the upcoming streaming service hbo max will offer warner's library of content incl

. >>> also facebook the standout >>> let's go back to mike santoli.e day >> we saul ref tiff strength, r differences here it shows you the makings of a potential comeback in small cap. so actually it relates high-yield bonds, small caps and large caps let me explain so right up here, this is the junk bond etf, right you see it has been relatively strong, especially lately. this is small caps, relative to large caps they have been under performing. that's an unusual gap right here the rest of the times you see generally this gap gets closed one way or the other this bottom chart shows that this di veerivergence has only n this way a couple of times before in recent history it can be closed two ways, small caps can outperform large caps bringing the blue line higher or high yield debt can weaken in absolute terms because rates go up or risk appetites wane. that's what i would look for with yields and credit solid it seems people are rotating into small caps to buy beta for a comeback, guys. >> people looked at the small caps, at the traps lagging saying

the rest of the end of the year looks like >> mark, thank you very much let's sends it over to mike santoliummer within internals of the market getting blown around i highlight this because it's still slightly to the negative, slightly more stocks down on the new york stock exchange today than up. where this started this morning it was about four to one, tleen and a half to one negative i do want to take a look at the volatility index as well this is a one year basis the volatility index this morning as the stock market hit its lowest at 11:00 a.m. this hit a high of 14 and a half. added from there but still maintaining a bid. there's suspends in the fed story. we have j. powell testifying next week. pulling against that is tendency in july for the volatility index to go to sleep see where it was last summer even back in april back to 12. there's this push pull in volatility going into the weekend a slight increase bid in there because we now have a little bit of a back and forth debate on the next fed move and what powell may say next week. let's see what the nasdaq has to say. >> we're co

let's send it to mike santoly for his third dashboard installment. >> this is hit for the cycle we'veeen tracking the cyclical more aggressive stocks and defensive ones in recent weeks we've seen signs of a turn. this is the ratio of global cyclicals against global defensive, so when this is going up the market is cyclicly geared so here's a couple things. you have this nice bottom here toward the end of last year coming into this year. a bit of a stutter step and picking up again once again we have one of these residences with early 2016 you had the turn higher and that was another face when the investors were getting more confident about the cyclical outlook you talk about how the industrials and transports have not really responded but other areas more cyclicly gears are acting in a subtle way nasdaq has been an outperformer today. let's hear more about it. >> love the baseball them today. not an out of the park home run for big tech but getting a bounce today apple down for the week. facebook and amazon are up for the week that's lifting the overall market bio tech strong today. t

. >>> the s&p could actually close above the 3,000 mark for the first time mike santoli is off so we called in robert from fund strat joining us with the market dashboard. big shoes to fill. what have you got some. >> so there is a lot going on. we have new highs in the market, but the real action is under the hood ten year bond yield, there is a lot happening here that i think is really important. so the key point here is when we look at the long term down trend for the ten year bond yield, this trend line goes back to 1981 so it is interesting as we had that fail in 2007 and again in 2018 and it has retraced this sort of magical number that lot of technicians look at 62% retracement. of that movement to the 2018 highs. so what is the risk to bond yields our work when we look at this momentum indicator, a rate of chachk indica change indicator, it has been very oversod we think the act that we've seen over the last couple days certainly this week is very important and we think that we are starting to put in an intermediate term low and that will affect a lot of sector rotation as we

stock closed at a new record high today let's go back to mike santoli for the final dashboard of the e been talking for a few days about what a strong stock market half year it was going into the end of june look at the total return, though, in investment-grade corporate bonds. this is the lqd, the investment grade corporate bond etf, up 13%. it's hard to express what a great year that is for essentially low-risk instruments. obviously treasury yields have been falling that's been a tailwind you have the 3% or so yield on top of it. the orange is the ag the total bond market, u.s. bond market index, with a lot of government and mortgage bonds in there, as well also a really good help here at 6% we have this global rush to grab yield where available. look at the chart that says here is in dollar terms where yield is coming from right now all of the government bonds in the world on a yearly basis now are giving $244 billion back to investors. right? that's -- i don't know, $30 trillion or something like that in bonds because of all the negative yielding bonds out there and the rest of i