that's the news update this hour sara, wilf, i'll send it down to you. >> and i'll send it to mike santolihe second dashboard of the session mike. >> sara, the best offense for investors this year has been playing defense. let's look at some of the sector dynamics that illustrate this trend, see if there's any sign that maybe we're going to see some sort of rotation back toward the cyclical sector so here you have in blue and green the stuff that's been working. that's tech, which is quality growth and economic defensive and staples. they're outperforming by a lot over the past year stuck below that is financials and industrials. financials and industrials have participated in the rally this week, but you just see this spread here, how it's not really showing you a sign that this is turning. the good news here is the stuff that's been working has not sold off much it hasn't been a one for one rotation as a matter of fact, fewer of half of all s&p 500 stocks are even within 10% of their 52-week high so in theory there's a lot of room for the laggard stocks to start working that's your formu

we'll send it over to mike santoli. >> don't dream it's over why are we talking about that? been sitting vigil waiting to see if there's signals of the expansion is over ism manufacturing dipping below 50 showing that manufacturing sector in the contraction zone the shaded areas are recessions. this is way back to just a post world war ii period showing you do get a down trend before you get a recession. however 2016 we were below the 50 mark for sometime there and the other notable instance would be in the mid-'90s,this scenario everyone's hoping for, a soft landing, fed eases. so this is the debate we are having right now look at the city economic surprise indicators for the g-10 developed economies. see it struggling to bottom. part is because forecasts have come down so much and easier for the actual numbers to beat them but that shows you that again the market is trying to suggest that things could be turning slightly for the better. we are going to have to wait and see if that continues, guys. >> thank you. >>> for more let's bring in tristan slock here at post nine. g

guys. >> thanks. >>> we'll go back to mike santoli for the third dashboard of the session mike. >> the just about in an interest area look at the chart of the last year of s&p. this is the sixth time since early august we've approached 2940 area. today's action will get us right up to that combined with a heavily trafficked area of volume. this is from fitzgerald, the amount of volume transacted in this zone in s&p 500 futures is very heavy relative to other levels it shows you some significance if we can get above this level a lot of folks think we head back towards a run at highs. of course if you stall out here, basically reinforce the idea markets range for a little while. not a make or break level but interesting. go to nasdaq where bertha has a closer look. hey, bertha. >> thanks very much. the tide is rising to keep with aquatic theme in terms of tech not huge volume but didn't have volume in selloff in the last 30 days chips are the big winners, moving us forward as far as the big cap names apple and facebook today are really providing a big lift both are just shy of moving bel

i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm sara eisen with mike santoli. very strong day.he dow closing up 373 1.4% s&p 500 good for a gain of the fifth gain in the last six sessions nasdaq leading the charge up 1.75%. the russell 2000 index with a very strong day, every group in the market higher, wilfred, led by tech and financials except for the defensive plays that benefited from low yields. it was a reversal of that trade with the yields popping today. >> big factor. 10-year back above 1.5%. oil managed to hold on to the flat line. >> good data. >> broad risk-on sentiment good data here not so good. as seema mentioned for germany factory orders box ceo joining us in a few moments. we'll hear also from kimberly-clark ceo michael hsu but let's dive in to the market discussion joining us still stephanie link. and jim paulson. mike, if i start with you, kind of continuation of yesterday's theme. you have seen the vix drop further still. >> the market's making the case that what we saw in august was just a little bit of an overshoot in the direction of recession fears, dra

let's send it over to mike santoli for a final dashboard of the day.ng the theme nice and easy for us today. >> sometimes the calendar gives you a little bit of a hint second spring is what you sometimes call fall. take a look at one of these broad gauges of the u.s. macro economy. chicago fed's national activity index that got updated this morning, this is 85 different measures of economic activity. it's very comprehensive. it's weighted to show the general trend in growth. what you see here is a recent little downturn and a little bounce in activity, back toward the zero line. the zero line is where it's supposed to be kind of the normal growth rate, not zero growth, but something like a neutral level of growth, somewhere around 2%. so what i'm also looking at here is what's happened before previous recessions. obviously, that's the worst recession in generations but if you look at even the mor garden variety sessions here in the early '90s and early 2000s, you have a much deeper drop and this is starting to look more like the mid-90s and even these

let's send it over to mike santoli for his second dashboard. sara, talking about being in a tailspin, a whole category of stocks that historically perform very well, which is the shares of spunoff companies these are smaller companies that have been distributed out by a larger conglomerate, really lagging, lately. look at this chart csd is an exchange-traded fund that tracks spun-off companies, spin-off stocks, down 8% over the last couple of years massive nderperformer, also against ipos, which until recently it outperformed the market, but it had given some back so what's this about part of it is the mix of companies. a lot of basic materials and other type of industrial value-type stocks. but also, it seems like there's a lack of sponsorship for these sort of orphaned companies they're not in indexes therefore, index funds generally don't own them and they sometimes are cheap and hedge funds that used to do a lot of this special situation-type investing have less assets coming in. and therefore don't have as much firepower. it's interesting t

mike santoli, i'll start with you. of market zone, it would probably be accurate to say that the markets have been in a sideways zone >> they have largely been sideways you could hea last thursday, the s&p closed at 2977 we closed today at 2977. essentially today, you took back that sort of pre-weekend jittery news-driven sell-off i think that what you would say from september is that the market had plenty of excuses to back off harder than it did, and it really remained hovered within this area, around 3% of the all-time highs i think you can take away from that there's been some resilience on display. >> for that reason, you're invoking a little bit of kelly clarkson, as well? >> yes, what doesn't kill you makes you stronger it could be a clarkson rally >> mark, what's your take on these levels, as we look at what's a strong month and a decent quarter how are we set up for the final quarter here >> the fact that the s&p was up roughly 2% this month in the face of an impeachment inquiry, in the face of trade deals tha

and right now markets are largely flat let's send it over to mike santoli for a second dashboard mikergan, ipo, normally on wall street stands for initial public offering, but also these days, indistinct profit outlook. indistinct as in unclear look at this breakdown of what percentage of newly public companies have profitable businesses when they become public this got attention when uber and lyft were becoming public earlier this ear it's not really changed. first half of this year, only 17% of all companies actually had profits. last year, very similar percentage and then you go back to these kind of internet bubble years for comparison, where 24 and 20%. obviously, that did not really end well for many of those companies. and of course, the three-decade average is 60% well, there are some differences, obviously, with the way we treat start-up companies. they're not run for profit it's not as if they necessarily can't turn a profit, but it's just one of those potential warning signals of froth out there. look at the chart of the ipo index against the russell 1000 it's a pretty broa

let's send it over to mike santoli for his final dashboard of the day, mike >> morgan, a money pit not're aware sometimes what people refer to as a home that keeps requiring more investment. kind of the household expenses get out of hand. >> i know a little something about that >> a different kind of money pit related to a home. a lot of talk about a big jump in credit card balances in july. people say, wow, is that household balance sheet in rough shape. this suggests, no, because mortgage rates have gone so low, this is the orange line right here, that this is how many existing mortgages are now in the money and potentially could be refinanced with benefit because of lower rates this is right up here. and obviously, that is historically very high number. when do you have to go back to probably 2016, we always referred to this would theoretically be a way that consumers could refresh their spending the balance of home equity loans over the past couple of years. i think it might have been on amazon prime day or other factors. but in general, the household balance sheet is in okay shape

i'm wilfred frost. >> and i'm seema mody in for sara eisen, along with mike santoli, the dow fallinguse me, 67 points s&p 500 ending lower by half a percent. we did close off the lows of the session, but as you can see here, the nasdaq, the clear underperformer, down over 1% tech, the worst-performing sector, vnlfinancials, the only sector thaet ended in the green >> we found the bottom about 3:00 p.m., a decent amount of buying into the close, though, clearly still down for the session overall. just want to show you facebook's stock for the week, which is one i picked out, seema, because down today, 1.7% down quite significantly for the week as a whole, almost 7% f.a.a.n.g. has been under pressure, facebook in particular, and a highlight of some of the challenges we've seen in the past week with the s&p down a full 1% for the week as well. >> kate rogers just pointing out, worst week of the year for facebook i had my eyes on shares of micron weak demand from huawei and that stock closing down 11% joining us to talk about the overall market, barbara doran, ceo and senior portfolio ma

we'll get over to mike santoli hi, mike. >> what's going over the hedge, rotations we've been talkingut all week they're going across several different vectors, right, large cap to small cap, growth to value, momentum to laggards and crowded to neglected that's what's going on here. people overpaid for the sure thing, long duration assets, bonds. but also these global bulletproof perpetual brands that yes overlap in momentum but the last five days they've underperformed purple line at the s&p 500, disney, coca cola, nike, mcdonald's, no brainer type stocks have struggled. they've pulled back a little bit. now look what's beneficiary on the other end of them. these are five of the ten most heavily shorted stocks in the market they, of course, have been flying hedge funds along the great stuff that nobody could argue with, short perceived junk like nordstrom, under armour, gap and snap on, you can see really killing the s&p. how long it goes there's an economic basis, too yields are doing what they're doing. at least in the moment it's also a liquidation of some crowded popular trades w

mike santoli has more. >> reporter: after a bitter set back naugust, the stock market finds itself inel something of sweet spot. the question nowg is how l the market can stay there after an oil price spikend the crucial fed meeting just ahead. several key market variables fe to extremes last month. treasury yields fell to three-year lows. economic expectations sank in anticipation of a possible recession. investorme sen turned quite pessimistic, never fell more than 6% from a record high. in recent weeks though data on jobs and retail sales have caed recession worries and sparked a powful rise in treasury yield from the low of 1.44% to above 1.8% yet they were above% the last time the s&p 500 was dh close w to a recd in july. rates areot high enough yet to pinch economic activity or undermine equity valuations. the economic readings are a comfort yet are not so hot as to jeopardize the expected quarter point fed rate cut later t week. with 6% rebound in recent weeks has brightened investor experience and prompted investor spirits but sentiment is far from turning o complacent orr optim

let's send it over to mike santoli for a second market dashboard. mike. >> i'm not going to make those decisions based on what the fed does either. the real world, by some description, is public markets take a look at how ipos have performed according to a timeline, renaissance ipo. it doesn't include only the hot ones it's interesting, this big comeback as the market came back, preparing for this wave of pretty heavily hyped un corner typed ipos you have your lyft ipo in the spring so sort of go in sideways with the ipo market here until we got the slack listing. that wasn't necessarily the greatest moment. the we work deal starts to fall apart. as josh was saying earlier, people have really started to rethink high value, no real cap profitability types that had loaded up the market i don't think it's necessarily a huge warning signal for the market if anything, you could say it's been pretty discerning in deciding which ones it's going to buy and which ones it's going to cast aside. something to watch. >> mike, thank you very much still to come he

for "nightly business report," i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange. >> so as the market heads higher, what should you be watching? joinin us is barryjames, president and portfolio manager at james investment research. s nice t you again, as always. >> it's great to be with you. >> what about mike's final point, that maybe m thisket is better prepared to handle the issues that haven't gone away yet, the fed and interest rates, brexit and the trade war? >> yeah, we've had a chance to digest it, i think. mike's point about sentiment being off right now, not too bullish, is a good sign that people have already maybe hit the exits that needed to hit the exits and g itesoom for the market to go high. you know, you were talking about getting up to nhi s. shh, don't tell anybody. let's keep it between ourselves njso we can it. >> yeah, but for that reason you are pretty cautious on thism market four own portfolio perspective. you're still very defensive, en't you? >> we are. we're about half stocked and half funds in our balanced accounts, and the types of stocks we're buying a hopefu

let's send it over to mike santoli for the market dashboards >> hello again crude oil is up again, buteally just returned to a recent level. we'll take a look at some of the relationships with oils and stocks here. and good times roll, they continue to roll in the high-yield credit market that's probably a good thing for stocks we'll take a look at that, too and shaking it up. we're seeing a little more evidence of that really aggressive rotation that we were tracking all last week and finally, chancy rendezvous is the dollar getting to a critical point on the charts we'll take a look at all of that so, hello again. this is the ratio of the dow jones industrial average to the price of a barrel of crude oil there's no real-world dynamic going on here. you can't buy oil with dow points, but it does show you we've basically been in a trading range for years with this relationship. this is when oil was crashing and the market came back but really, this is the latest move with oil prices going up and the dow really absorbing it relatively well. if you go back into the early '80s, this was u

good afternoon to you both mike santoli, i'll start with you.his week, the great rotation >> it was a huge rotation, continued rotation i think that the bond market has been the leader. it was a leader on the way down. yields going down into august. now they're leading on the way up i think very notable today the stock market just identify kind of idled, sitting on the gains from the week and cruised into the weekend, but it didn't get further lift with bond yields continuing to go out with the highs. it's ami move, tremendous volatility the banks peaked at 1:00 p.m. today. my point is we got a great benefit going up, but too much too fast just tells you that there's some urgency or instability in the market. and you don't necessarily get the benefit tick for tick after a while when you have this big overshoot. >> have you seen the yield curve go back to something that everyone can just look at and the shape of it and say, okay, this is more constructive for the economy, for markets and the fed can then be a little bit less worried >> it's alrea

mike santoli has a special market dashboard ahead of fedex's earnings which hit after the bell and we'll have for you here on "closing bell. >> a big day in oil. oil dropped right after the open on a reuters story that saudi's oil output would be fully back online in the next two to three weeks. saudi's energy minister said that supply would indeed be back online by the end of september bottom line is this. big energy names that were up big yesterday. some of them double digits like apache and marathon, they had given back about half of their gains today. but elsewhere, the market overall, it's back to a more defensive tone all the cyclicals that rallied last week. metals, banks and industrials all trending down again today. >> bob, thank you. what do you do with energy stocks at the bottom of the happy todheap today >> so it doesn't matter about the energy stocks. they're less than 5% of the weight of the s&p 500. in a lot of ways, crude down 5% is welcome to equity investors and the stocks don't matter so much we want to see them participate, they are going to be involved as far as s&p

welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and mike santoli., things are a little bit weaker this morning. dow futures down by 43 points. the nasdaq is down by 25 s&p down by 6. this comes after a long string of up days i think until yesterday the s&p and dow were up for six out of the last seven sessions. dow was up by 38 points. s&p closed down but less than half a point >> s&p's up 5 or 6% from the august lows even though we're not yet back to a high. >> but we're only 1.5% off of the highs. >> yes yesterday even though flat, a lot going on bank stocks up more than 3%. software down two. see if that continues. here is what is making headlines at this hour apple is set to unveil the latest iphone models its product event will take place at apple events in california it will begin at 1 p.m. eastern time small business optimism has fallen to a five-month low the monthly index from the national federation of independent business was down 1.6% to 103.1. it was led to a drop in businesses who expect the economy to improve in the months ahead. rest

mike santoli is in today you'll see green once again.y about 60 points after a rally that w

mike santoli is in today you'll see green once again.o you futures up by about 60 points after a rally that saw all of the major averages up do you up by 227 points. s&p up by 21 nasdaq up about a percent at 85 points a lot of people muling through and looking at some deescalation it still continued but let up a little bit trade looks like a sidelined issue or better. much much lower but rising that made people feel like they didn't have enough exposure. >> the dow is up around 2,000. russell 2000 is up >> first it is a catch up and then let's see how far we can stretch it overnight, with the headlines of the latest concessions, the s&p futures shot up. we are up six or so percent. >> if we wanted to, we couldn't make new lows or deals it is fairly far away. >> you are in this zone. you have a cushion below >> you see the 10-year 1.726 >> it is good. it is good it is good >> always a good side, bad side of things. >> in asia, we did see the president tweeting about postponing tariffs sang high composite ended up in europe, if you look at

mike santoli has more on netflix's fall this year mike, netflix fell last year from around midyear intof the year when everybody else was falling. and then rebounded is this similar or is it different? it was precipitated by earnings. >> it is similar in magnitude, but when the market was rushing lower, it was about stocks that had the greatest profits, fast moving stocks hit harder you look back at the chart of netflix against the nasdaq 900, it is tremendous surrender of what had been amazing outperformance two years ago, the following ten months, up 200% more than the nasdaq 100 and it has come back almost the entire way essentially it is neck and neck with the nasdaq 100 over two years, but had been up by -- tripled it a big premium is being drained it is the specialness, uniqueness, certainty on the business model, how fast they could get to whatever subscriber base people thought was proper scale to get profitable. i think a lot of that is what's going on also, you're seeing a drip, drip of the street getting more cautious incrementally, but not in a dramatic way. look at the brea

a good labor day weekend i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, mike santoli, cramer has the day off. dow is down 200 as a new round of tariffs takes effect on the u.s. and china side. big week ahead with ism in an hour, jobs number on friday, powell in switzerland. europe is red and ten year back to 15. the pound at a two year low as johnson threatens a general election road map begins with new tariffs on chinese goods hitting over the weekend. no talks between the u.s. and china in sight. >> hurricane dorian battering the bahamas as coastal u.s. braces for the worst >> and a longer wait for boeing's max, could friction between the company and air safety authorities threaten a new delay for that fleet futures, though, slipping after the new tariffs on roughly $110 billion in chinese imports went into effect on sunday. the 15% u.s. duty hits consumer goods rafrning fr s ranking fro apparel. reports say that getting some parameters for new talks is proving to be difficult. >> exactly i think that if you want to look at the bright side of that, the preopen this morning says there was no

. >>> 42 minutes left of trade let's go toe mike santoli. >> here's what we got. first of all in lower gear that's what corporate profits have been operating in we'll take a look at that trend as we come towards the low of the quarter. feeling the burn looking at other fitness and wellness related stocks. a mixed picture for a handful of stocks that exist beyond pell the tennessee. skipping a beat, looking at the market today but also a day in the past where we got a very fleeting market scare. then mind over matter. little bit of test of the sentiment of the market gauge, different aspects of that. look at the trend here of earnings forecast for 2019 and 2020 according to facts. this is the consensus for the s&p 500. very steady downturn here's what's interesting one year ago people thought they were going to be $180 or thereabouts for the year 2019. right now analysts say it will be about $180 for next year. clearly we pushed ahead when we'll have revival of earnings growth we had the flattening estimate for 2019 in the last couple of months the down scaling of

let's send it back to mike santoli for the third dashboard. > sarah, breadth is evenly mixed but below the surface if you look at this one-year chart of the advance-decline line cumulatively for the new york stock exchange, stocks not seeing signs of any kind of a nervous breakdown or any tentative move here. you see, this is the s&p 500, actually over the last year it's not the advance-decline but the advance/decline is showing us at all-time highs you saw the s&p struggling to get above to an all-time high. this is the running tally of up versus down stocks that is at a new all-time high i want to point out this was august of last year. that broke down before the overall market did bulls are pointing to this as a relatively sturdy underpinning to the market even though the s&p is having a struggle trying to get past those highs. let's go to chicago with rick santelli now >> i'll tell you what, mike, it's a fascinating day in treasuries because as i watch equities drifting i see the long end, 10-year yields actually firming up a little bit as

i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange check out deere and caterpillar.lysts expecting weaker u.s. demand for construction and farm equipment next year. let's bring in the team. j.c. o'hara and erin gibbs of gibbs management j.c., both of these stocks have been on the defensive for the better part of two years how do you size up the prospects for either one of them making a comeback >> well, i think it's important to take a longer-term view of the technical setup and right here i prefer caterpillar. if we go back to 2016 many forget caterpillar doubled to the 2018 highs and often when stocks have that sort of move there's time needed to digest those moves and that's precisely what we believe happened in 2018 and for the better part of this year however shorter term, you know, caterpillar stirred up some demand around that $110 support level and now it's inching closer to up overhead resistance if it breaks above 140 the next 10% will be higher to our $160 price target. >> all right, so we'll watch that, see how it treats those levels and, erin, there is a

joining us now to discuss all of this is senior markets commentator mike santoli and chief investmentategist brian belski mike, i'll start with you. >> yeah? >> taking a look at this market right now, your thoughts >> it's a round-trip back to july 31st. i think what august did is a couple of things that the market is feeding off of right now. one is, it really front lo lodeloaded a lot of these recession fears. the whole inverted yield curve obsession. you really did have a lot of people clenching up in advance of economic weakness that wasn't yet in the numbers and that turned investor sentiment, i think, very defensive and skeptical. so when you got a, well, things don't look so bad outcome from the, from the domestic data, still expecting a quarter-point fed rate cut and bond yields are so much lower, so therefore debt is cheap and the credit markets are okay i think the stock market is just reversing a lot of the safety trade that people rushed into, in august. doesn't mean it continues up and away from here to huge new highs, but it does suggest that maybe in the short-term, peo

i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange boeing, one of the worst dow stocks today following reportsiday travel season shares now down more than 20% from a march record high so how do you trade this aerospace giant right now? let's bring in your trading nation team today. todd gordon and quint tatro. todd, we mentioned 20% off the high, but the stock had such a huge run going into that peak and has really traded swooi sideways for a while how does it leave you in terms of discerning the trend? >> the first thing i'll bring your attention to is relative performance of boeing to the etf. we have seen some underperformance but a bit of a hook-up. though industrials are underperforming, we're seeing boei boeing, which is the largest component, pick up we're messing around with this 200-day moving average on the next chart, maybe we'll get context as to where we could buy this a beautiful up trend as you mention eed correctly, michael. a huge massive gain. we simply digests the gains. we have a low of about $290 right here i think there's real value here, which is also comprised of the bl

. >> who drew that chart mike santoli before they tossed he said with jm morganen microsoft making all times he posed it differently we don't look like we are collapses which is interesting. two dames names we've been talk bag jp morgan above 120 it's a level from three times back over the last 18 months. >> you never look like you're collapsing >> i wouldn't put it in two hands. >> klf looked weak ob a granular basis today. i know there was concerns about trade and other things but the xlf closed weak from where it started strong and gave up ground. >> on the day. >> on the day. >> the beg begging to be asked and running around in your head. >> let's see if you're in my head. >> you know i am. >> i don't think she is going to admit it. >> she is saying something like well what is the mechanics microsoft is that sort of. >> that's the question i asked in the conference call today yeah, sure you guessed. what is it >> what's the next microsoft, guy. >> call me crazy steve has been right about in i think collectively around the desk we've been right to cast aspersions with this name. but

and we have indications at $26 as we look for them to open any moment mike santoli is here as well iteen a rough week for challengers, smaller companies trying to challenge big incumbents does that make it a difficult week to go public, and why the difficulty >> it is a difficult phase to go public now right now i think it is good that investors aren't willing to swallow incredibly aggressive valuations, being conservative on what business models you bet on, not waiting for the company's next act a lot of ipos, this is what we are now, we will segue to something else something about the pricing mechanism isn't working. smile direct, how do you miscalculate that. ceo says we left money on the table. apparently not if the pop is not there in the indication, backing away index funds are the marginal buyer, they're not players, so it is interesting. >> is it the bank's fault? >> i don't think it is fault, it is art and science they got people to write checks at $29 for every share they looked to sell >> all right mike, i'm curious on valuation on peloton according to one metric it is wort

nancy tengler and mike santoli >>> here's what else is ahead on "the exchange. >> coming up -- the brexit battle is heating up >> they want and we want this business to be over and for us to leave the eu on october 31st. >> with a deadline fast approaching, where do we stand and what would a hard brexit mean for our markets >>> plus -- 7,000 hotels in 40 countries. we'll talk to the ceo of choice hotels about the state of international travel >>> and slack sinks, and wework's valuation is cut in half this is "the exchange" on cnbc do you have concerns about mild memory loss related to aging? prevagen is the number one pharmacist-recommended memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. >>> welcome back to "the exchange." the brexit situation continues with boris johnson speaking saying he doesn't want an election but doesn't see another way. he's promising not to delay brexit listen >> can you make a promise today to the british public that you will not go back to brussels and ask for another delay to brexit? >> ye

i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and mike santoli our guest host on this september 11th, 18 yearsesident richard fisher, cnbc contributor. we never forget. it's useful to think about all of the people we lost. on wall street, a lot of people -- >> and how grateful we are for the first responders very important. >> i read an article the other day, did you see that? how many sons of the first responders are now on the fire department and the police department and all of that >> that's what makes america great. >> it is i think that's true. one of the many things take a quick look at the futures this morning which have improved a little bit since last time we looked we're in the green about 26 and change. the nasdaq up about 16 or so and the s&p up about 3 points or so. we've got some treasuries now. treasury yields at about 2.2% on the 30 year. richard, just real quickly, you're an at&t board member. we saw the statement from at&t do you have anything that you can add, any insight that you can add given that we're now seeing an activist in elliott management try to shake things up a

. >> michelle caruso-cabrera and mike santoli. >> good morning.ng? is it iran >> yeah. by definition because trump is delivering a speech that's going to be the biggest thing, right you want to hear what he has to say. it's not nearly as interesting as it was two years ago when it was his first speech we didn't know what he was going to do, how bomb bass stick he was going to be. that was the little rocket man speech two years later, less interesting. you're looking now for tone at, what he says about various issues what does he say about north korea. what does he say about iran. i think he'll be very tough on iran at the same point, the question of what we're hearing, are we going to see retaliation we heard loud and clear from secretary of state michael pompeo when he was on all of the networks, the president is looking for a diplomatic solution. >> is there any shot the u.n. security council gets involved >> i doubt it when it comes to the chinese. you have to get the chinese and russians on board so i don't think that's actually going to happe

. ♪ >>> back to mike santoli for the final dashboard of the day mike >> biggest question happeninginge and final commentary with some interim rate cuts or is a recession on the way? jay powell mentioned 1995 and 1998 scenarios this was an illustration of the yield curve from 1998 compared to one right now it's set up to match up at the date of the first rate cut each psy cycle. what it's meant to show, the fed waited longer until the yield curve had been negative for longer before the first rate cut right here, right? 98 it barely got negative at all. ate cuts steepened from there. this is if you believe that the yield between the three month and ten-year is somehow this overwhelming signal we're heading into recession counter point to that is a different chart that shows when the fed has cut rates twice, first two times in the cycle and only a quarter point each as opposed to half a point, it's been positive six and 12 months later for the stock market each time these instances more or less correspond to the nonrecessionary rate cutting cycles that we've seen in the past this is kind

matthews founder and chief investment officer of capital management good afternoon to you both s mike santolithe swings we saw. >> it was a mild follow through rally even after the highs of the day. it's a little bit winded, a little bit fatigue after a 6% run of the s&p 500 right up to the cusp of a new high you lost a little bit of that initial oomph of oh, no yields are higher i wouldn't take too much away from today's action in terms of saying that this rally is over, but got a lot in a short amount of time. >> sean, what did you make to the fairly volatile reaction to this morning's macro data and central bank action >> it was pretty amazing if you look at copper which is a barometer of global growth expectations we went from 259 to 267. that's a 3% plus range so that's a really big range for what people's thought process what's going on in the global perspective. so ecb came out. they unestimated what the market really wanted. we had a huge rally. we turned around and went the other way because we had dissenter. countries came out they didn't want qe. draghi came out and said this will

i'm carl quintanilla with melissa lee, mike santoli at the new york stock exchange.im crame and david faber have the day off. final day of september, and q3 as we get set for a busy week full of pmi data, jobs number friday, more than a dozen fed speakers including powell, and the first official q3 earnings number in pepsi, that's later in the week, europe is green, ten year steady, oil back to 55. road map begins with futures pointing to small gains of the open as markets close out what has been a tumultuous quarter. >> plus, a rough quarter for ipo shares of ab inbev >> and bernie sanders corporate tax, the 2020 presidential hopeful out with a new plan calling for a tax on companies that pay their ceos way more than their workers it has been a roller coaster ride for stocks in the third quarter as we enter the final trading session of q3. dow and nasdaq aiming for a third straight quarterly gain. mike, awe kn mike, as we know, we went into the month thinking big, bad and scary. >> i think that's actually the story for the quarter too, the market held itself togethe

. >>> time now for our etf spotlight with mike santoli. >> obviously have the revised ged numbers.r discretionary sector what types of groups are working and not working. it has not been across the board. xly is the consumer discretionary sector within it retail is kind of driving at the rth i should mention it has things like walmart in it which is technically consumer staples within the s&p system, but it shows you that domestic retail spending has been strong of course, xhb, home related, home building and home improvements hd is i think the second largest stock in the xly, but carz is the auto etf obviously been a lagger. gm and ford make up 4% of the xly. media is also -- used to be consumer discretionary not really anymore you're kind of left with this grab bag of restaurants, retail, holding things up. anything that seems more big picture, durable goods, autos, not as much unless it's houses. >> we got gdp final, consumer up 46 we've seen some downgrades of costco, for example, who think people might get tired. >> yes a little bit of fatigue. the sentiment numbers haven't be

. >> good set up mike santoli at the cube the portfolio manager and chief investment, international andties, good to see you both is seasonality saved here with a psa calm september. >> this is a market that likes loo lo to look about 30 seconds ahead. >> like life. >> exactly we had a fed cut last week i read it as being a little bit hawkish. trade is kind of simmering no longer boiling over which i think gives the market some confidence to the point mike just made, what the stock market wants is an easy fed, a deal on trade and growth to remain moderate and that's somewhat of an impossible trinity. i'm not sure all those will come to fruition which probably means we're looking at volatility. >> so more down side risk than unside risk? >> i think there's more down side risk. >> i concur. i think there is a big rotation going on from growth to value and from momentum to contrarian. i think that's a setup for the market it's very reminiscent of the late 1990s, 1999 to be specific when i was managing money back then nobody thought the growth gravy train would come to an end and it came to

things aren't being bought now, the banks are the worst performer, have to check in with bob or mike santolio tell me that jpm, bank of america down over 1% this morning. morgan stanley, everything is down there it is. yeah >> they have a fortress balance. >> i heard that. >> i think that -- >> jamie dimon right in there on the whole we work thing. he's, like, he's going to get them to market nothing can stop jamie. >> jamie is -- let's say he's got the longevity going for him. >> he does >> by the way -- >> good salesman too. >> what are you hearing about what solomon is doing at goldman? we talked about it yesterday >> glossed over it i did more digging >> tell me give me more insight >> you don't want to hear it. >> yes, i do. >> the apple card -- >> with the apple card, you and that apple card. >> have you looked at national card -- >> tell me >> it is -- it is the easiest sell in the world. we don't know if it will be used but i got mine yesterday many people are getting them if it is used, it is just money in the bank, if the algorithms are right. i think that the idea that goldman --

. >> i think mike santoli, at&t, dividend is good i like the dividend of at&t.ract runs out in a few years >> nfl contract. >> what else do they have? i would off load directv on anyone who would take it. >> still generates $4 billion in free cash flow a year. you mentioned at&t's dividend, that's helpful toward it if you put it in public market what would the multiple be >> four. >> what foe sun buy it foe sun stepped in with thomas cook foe sun. i got a couple of bridges for foe sun. >> i know. >> look, right here, right here, there were doubts, david and i want to find out who are the doubters right here so i can just say we're not listening to them anymore >> okay. >> still to come, president trump will address the united nations general assembly that's less than an hour from now. we will bring you live coverage of his remarks here is another look at futures. we get started with trading here in nine minutes. don't go anywhere. you should be mad that this is your daily commute. you should be mad at people who forget they're in public. and you should be mad at

have every sector in the s&p 500 higher so it is one of those continued days where i remember mike santolirt about how everything is moving in unison in lockstep. you have all of them higher today. and we have seen this pattern, all lower, all higher, macro news is dominating, you mentioned hong kong, you mentioned the sort of fed speak in the air i think after that ism number, especially what we saw in the bond market, which was steepening of the yield curve on hopes that the fed was going to be pushed into more stimulus, a research note at renaissance macro saying they should cut 50 basis points, market is not expecting it, let them surprise the market, we have more ammunition to do so. we have the lower manufacturing numbers and inflation is barely budging and global slowdown story is still there. >> i don't know. financial conditions, i mean, have they gotten that tight? a few points from all time highs in the markets with the big week for corporate debt issuance and spreads. we had a big deal out of disney in many parts, deere, i think apple comes this week as well. if you were truly

joining us right now is mandy zoo, chief equity derivative strategist at credit suisse and mike santoliyou think the futures are up this morning? is this hong kong, a bounce back from yesterday >> i think it's both of those things and also it reflects the fact that we have really just been bouncing around in this range. yesterday it never got a lot of downside even after the 10:00 a.m. release of the ism number which is weaker than expected. but it was telling that you have bond yields making a slight new low and the stock market didn't get a lot of headway on the down side to me the markets aren't kind of showing the hand right here. >> right. >> you have been in this range for about a month. sentiment has gotten very, very negative at least on balance it's pretty negative, so that's what's being fought out we're in a recession countdown camp and then the cost of debt has gone down a lot. we have credit markets that are still in decent shape and profits haven't fallen off a cliff and the picture of that is a range bound stock market. >> mandy, you don't think we're headed for a recessi

multi-asset strategies of charles schwab investment management and our senior markets commentator mike santoli omar? where were you were you like me, oh, that's why or do you know for sure? >> well, i think the biggest challenge here, joe, is that the fed's credibility in terms of looking at what they call data dependent decisions. it has gone into a business sense. i can only imagine they're going into a meeting saying, all right, this is what the data tells us this is where we are in the economy. this is where the market sets. and all of a sudden the fed for the first time seems to be going towards the market as opposed to actually going towards data. i think that in itself, you can explain both ways. yes, you want to be preemptive of what the data will come and, therefore, they're trying to anticipate that bad data that will come because of the pressures they see overseas. you see that component of trying to prevent the deflationary import and therefore trying to be proactive but the problem of that is we have been hearing this dodd clause and data dependence for over a decade that's the ch

i'm carl quintanilla with melissa lee, mike santoli at the new york stock exchange.f. final day of september, and q3 as we get set for a busy week full of pmi data, jobs number friday, more than a dozen fed speakers including powell, and the first official q3 earnings number in pepsi, that's later in the week, europe is green, ten year steady, oil back to 55. road map begins with futures pointing to small gains of the

joining us is dan suzuki and mike santoli is in the house.w what are you doing are you as negative as you -- like the last couple months you've been negative, negative. >> couple of decades. >> yeah, i've been more on the cautious side. if you look at the market, i mean, mike was talking on tv yesterday about how the market's working hard to stand still. if you look at the market over the last 20 months it's gone nowhere. if you look at the performance, it's been all dominated by gold, bonds, the more defensive sector look at yesterday with the market doing actually decently well what are the stocks and what are the sectors that are making all-time highs consumer staples, utilities, real estate, procter & gamble, dollar general these are not signs of a really healthy economy or healthy market and i think that's the i shall issue. >> therefore you recommend investors do what? >> investors need to be taking their foot off the gas peddle, taking risk off the table and continuing to focus on the more defensive sectors now. when we tell people tha

joining us now is harry knappe, senior economics reporter mike santoli and steve liesman. look in the kitchen, turnoff the lights, mice come out, turn on the lights they go away, everything is fine it's super boring. it was 2%, it is 2%. it's running 2% q3 going on all around the 2% is the trade data which is boosting the inventories which will be run off in the inventories you've got boeing, accumulating planes which is having a long-term impact i had a long talk with mike england about the impact of boeing which makes the 737-maxes but doesn't sell them. that boosts inventories. you come up with all that drama on the outside with 2% and i watch the data come in every month, every week, every day, and they go into a rapid update and it comes out 2% the consumer 4.7 we had this little slow down it's important to talk about in business investment. it was up 4.4, now down 1% the big change there is going to be in structures, down 11% they're not building buildings i guess is the deal. government purchases are reall helping. and the consumer so bottom line, the government --

mike santoli is in the house cnbc senior market contributor and a man who's been holding his tongue alle. >> being nice. >> sirat, what do you expect to hear later today well, i won't make it a multi-part question. >> i think we get 25 and then the question is what do they say from there i do think they'll say things aren't as bad as everybody expects. >> right. >> is that ghusd or bad news is that good news/bad news or is that bad >> if they go that way, i think that's more -- the market will perceive it as bad news because they're probably going to think that 25 and done. >> so you want them to say that, ah, maybe things are not as good as we want them to be. >> i want them to say what the truth is i think the reality is like we need people to tell us what's really going on as opposed to trying and see where you think the market is going to do. whatever they think the market is going to do, something else will impact it look at oil. there are always uncertainties going on but i think getting real data and real facts would be really important. >> you know, what i worry about with lower

markets and how impeachment and the inquiry could affect trading joining us is binky trada and mike santoliets commentator. you were at barrons during the last one, i think? >> yeah. >> probably the only one that remembers nixon. i remember that. i remember --nd the irs. binky, i think you think at this point slowing growth and the markets being, in your view, 15% over valued probably takes precedence over all of this noise. is that fair to say? >> yeah. i mean, you know, there's really two points i would make. i would say if you think about how domestic political and, you know, really more broadly geopolitical risks have played out in the equity market historically, it is really two simple things. one is there is usually clearly a sharp selloff but, you know, we are talking about 6% on average. but the most important point is that it's very temporary, it's very short lived the average is three weeks down, three weeks back up. >> you're saying if something were to worsen from here, we're not there yet. we didn't get a 6% selloff on this. >> no. because i would argue yesterday's political ne

joining us now, katie stockton, founder and managing director of fair lead strategies and mike santoli backwards, forwards. >> same with trennert. >> that's right. >> next time it happens is 92 years from now >> is that right >> something to floorkd to. >> katie, here we are. >> here we are >> you didn't say this wasn't going to happen. i think we need to get through a couple of places to get back to where we are what now >> we've broken out from the one-month trading range. that was signalled by the global equity markets we have the s&p to a new high. and the short-term breakout, what it's done, it's proven that the august low is very important. we've watched breadth and sentiment, they've reached extremes and they're pretty prescient in august. we saw the nice reaction to that and that's a bullish development. >> i think we're in this zone of having gone to all of these extremes in august the market overall kind of bent but didn't break and people really over anticipated and priced in a pretty significant scenario i think we're in the zone, bond yields got too low it got depressed an

a good labor day weekend i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, mike santoli, cramer has the day off. 200 as a new round of tariffs takes effect on the u.s. and china side. big week ahead with ism in an hour, jobs number on friday, powell in switzerland. europe is red an

let's get more reaction to the data from our senior economics reporter steve liesman and from mike santoliis weak but the consumer is strong we have data on both of those things to chew on here not definitive either way. rick was right to point out the capital spending ex-aircraft which is a proxy for business investment it gets rid of the durable goods and the vagary they make them and they don't and they've rolled into inventory and up and down with the orders we get rid of transportation and look at what's happening overall. that number is not healthy down for the second month in a row. let me give you the tale of the tape had a good month of june which came back after a bad april but negative in july and negative in august the idea that the fed sees in this, wall street economists, they see the trade war, global certainly and the counter to this, i'm sorry to do one hand on the other hand, we haven't seen that manifest itself in hiring if you're a ceo and worried, you would think you might also if you're cutting back -- >> not necessarily. >> i'm going to hold on to people. >> hiring t