mike santoli will find out >>> here's a check on bonds.y yields getting a small lift to start the week "closing bell" will be right back. make fitness routine with pure protein. high protein low sugar tastes great! high protein low sugar so good! high protein low sugar mmmm, birthday cake! and try pure protein delicious protein shakes we believe in education built foall people.ty, - [woman] snhu was the best experience of my life. - [man] without snhu, i wouldn't be the leader i am today. - [woman] i graduated high school 19 years ago. i still finished. - [man] in the military, you feel that sense of accomplishment. that's what snhu is. - you will march from this arena and say to the world.. i did it. - [woman] you did it. i love you. - [graduate] i love you too. doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacist-recommendeding? memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. >>> rear set for report closes three things driving the action today. >>> further helping as chine

sea mody is tracking the stocks moves, and mike santoli has the dashboard. eunice, let's kick things off with you >> reporter: state media has confirmed the first death in beijing, a 50-year-old who had travel from wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak. chinese authorities are now recommending that everyone wear a mask which is the reason i'm wearing a mask right flow which is what is normally a bustling nightr up did life area. they have expanded the travel restrixz also bus travel has been suspended for other cities, including a major port city and very important to international business this is after restrictions have already been in place for the province most affected by this virus. hubei province, with about 52 mill million people. so the chinese premier is currently in wuhan he has been tasked with managing this pandemic after president xi jinping had convenedage emergency meeting when he called the meeting grave. he had other measures, by three days to february 2nd, there's a really big question as to whether or not or how long companies are going to

fresh highs for the s&p and nasdaq let's send it over to mike santoli for today's market dashboard. >> we're going to start with excuses, and then you get some truces that cause rebounds that's a pattern duals, stocks versus bonds weights and measures, is the dow a good representation of what's happening in the overall market, next hour. pole indiana, that's a sentiment check, the good news and bad news camps are wide apart. take a look at this one. three-year chart of the s&p 500, during this bull market you have the economic fundamentals, liquidity, jobs, earnings, defines the overall trend and then it's a plateau. it looks and fixates on these certain headlines. this right here, march, april, 2017, that was the obamacare repeal drama this market was trading in a binary way within a band based on the prospects for obamacare repeal it was scene as a proxy for the entire agenda. that's what mattered when the market was overbought. this right here, august after the charlottesville korcontrove. guess when they first hit in a big way? early february of 2018, when the market already had b

better life. >>> welcome back let's send it over to mike santoli for his third dashboard of the day mike, what's a hilltop orch orchard? it's a place where apples go to the sky. an incredible accelerated extent, recently august, september, barely even happened in terms of a pullback for people which did happen in the broad market this leefs it in a trivial extended position. it was down about 1% today, taking a rest at that $100 market here's a chart showing the distance of the stock price from its 200-day average. so when this is high, it means it's really accelerated well above its longer-term one-year trend, from jonathan krinsky at bay crest partners it's about 33% above that 200-day average. that seems like an extreme, although it has been more extreme in 2012 when it previously made this crazy sprint to at the time $1,000, i believe, was the price, because it had been prior to to the seven for one split. so it has gotten more overheated, but not all that much more. on the other hand, street sentiment, analyst consensus on the stock is still not particularly bullish on an overall ba

affordable it was. - [narrator] find your degree at snhu.edu. >>> welcome back we're send going to mike santolif the day. what you dot got, mike. >> what i have is inflation is too calm for markets to care about right now. i'm not sure it stays that way necessarily. but look at the chart of inflation, headline cpi reported this morning, a bit lighter than expected but on a year over year basis, the headline and core cpi about 2.3% to me to it take away on core is the steady in the zone back to 2012 so the economy is producing roughly the a core inflation now as it was soefrl years ago ago seems not an emergency on either side of things either because it's too lie or too high but look at the components of services inflation against commodity inflation. this is also probably not spraysing. but this is a wiped widening gulf core services, very much in that steady range around 3% commodities of all sorts, goods basically down near zero that's dipped into deflation at times. that's the setup and guess what the economy is becoming more service oriented over time in theory there will be a upward pull

will -- mike santoli has market dashboard. david faber is covering up unveiling of nbc universal's streaming service, peacock >>> morgan stanley soars, a very strong q4, let to about a 2% pop in the shares, but the new guidance they issued on the earnings call and the targets around that really drove shares higher q4 revenue what 10.9 billion eps was 1.30 per share it was a broadly strong quarter in all segments, particular standouts with strong folksed-income trading, an4 billion, about 600 million ahead of expectations. the new 2021 guide is 13% long-term guide is 15% to 17%. in wealth management, it -- they had a 27% margin in q4 the new target margin is 28 to 30% and over 30% long term the ceo optimistic about growing wealth and investment management on the call. >> we highlight the growth in long-terms net growth which reflect strong long-term performance. with combined revenues of approximately 21 million wealth and management businesses are among the largest platforms in the world >>> so this move puts morgan stanley ah

let's focus in on the big stories we're watching mike santoli has his dashboard we have a look at how the market is setting up here and we'll talk china let's begin with mike at the dashboard. >> here's what we have for you in the fast lane where investors have been traveling at least recently in term of the aggressiveness of stocks shifted to neutral by some measures, the mood among investors is really kind of mixed and not too over bullish along for the ride, the rise of passive investment versus active and then no cash for clunkers. cheap beat up stocks have rarely underperformed so much relative to expensive ones as they have lately first in the fast lane here's a hand full of etf. this is the microcaps. over the last month. that's the high s&p. obviously you see they have all outperformed over the last month. we had this year end sprint and continuing today to some degree although iwc, the microcaps are more mixed over two years, the same four tickers over the last two year and you'll see the s&p 500 has outperformed, actually been mostly defensive in quality type rally that's go

meg terrell is looking at the virus out of china and mike santoli has his market dashboard. lelgts start with the tumble in the chinese market as new fears of the coronavirus grows >> reporter: the cdc has confirmed the officials patient in the u.s. diagnosed with this coronavirus a man in washington consistent who recently returned from china where this outbreak has been going on since last month. he returned on january 15th and authorities have not detailed which flight he took he arrived before the cdc implemented entrance screening at three u.s. airports the agency says it's now expanding that screening to atlanta and chicago as well. authorities say they are still learning about this virus including importantly how well it spread between people there are indications limited person to person spreading is happening. there's more than 300 cases reported in china with a few others in nearby countries and six confirmed deaths it is in the same family as viruses like sars and mers back to you. >>> are there companies working on vaccines that could actually help alleviate this

over to mike santoli hello, mike. >> we're going to take a bit of a status check here's a one-year chartp 500 along with the 20-did i moving average 689 very short term this was from a few hours ago before the intraday comeback we're basically less than half a percent off the record highs i brought in the 20-day in here, because a lot of people think we're due for some kind of pause generally that's been pretty healthy. , on the way up, that was a strong, brought rally that would be no big deal around 31.50 or so that brought -- and it would still by in the zone of normally, noticy pullback. here's the sentiment check we keep pointing out that the sentiment is pretty much celebrated a new high for this -- close to the lows that spread is getting wide, but it doesn't necessarily mean anything it certainly has the makings for a negative bryce, upending this positive story in the markets. january 2018 is still the standard for over-bullishness. >> do people care more about the shorter term or longer term? >> they care more about the longer-term ones, but obviously if you have a bit of a hic

. >> and i'm sure mike santoli will have some good insights for us as soon as he gets strapped in mike't wait for mike santoli because you always have great insight into these numbers what got us here and where it looks. >> a lot of it is just like the fourth quarter rally only more so i think that the things that were in favor were the mega cap growth stocks. and it has bayeen the familiar nasdaq names that have gotten liftoff against the sectors that were telling us the economy was going to be better this year so that is where we have to i think adjust our view of what the market has been conveying coming out of the late summer slowdown fears we said great the cyclical sectors are working well, small caps are participating, transports reviving. that has gone sideways it hasn't undone itself, but i think that it is just a pile into the large cap growth stocks and it is helping everything with long term cash flows that you can promise to investors it will get overheated at some point, but at this point what is working is continuing to work. >> this morning saying inflation risk still t

tesla's market cap crossing $100 billion for the first time mike santoli is looking at the stock, mike. >> i know you're up on all the technical rocketry terms tesla has raised ludicrous speed. here is the stock price on top on the bottom it's the daily dollar volume in the stock so essentially not just share volume, but how much money is turning over in the stock. i had this done earlier before the today's total was there. today is back up to $16 billion. you can see this was trucking along at a low level it has hit $16 billion multiple times. it means more than 10% of the value of this company is changing hands every day right now. today it's traded three times more dollar volume an apple. apple is 14 times the market cap of tesla keep in mind elon musk owns 20%, 25% of tesla so the available shares are not even the full market cap all this is to say is that the activity is becoming very intense and frothy the stock is down 25% off the day's highs. so obviously it is consuming pretty much all the available energy that it has i think in the short-term nothing says there's a certain le

. >> mike santoli is here to break gown the crucial moments, and we have nathan here's well.gs off with the december jobs report, which was out earlier. it showed the u.s. economy added 145,000 jobs expectation of 3.1%, but michael, in all, this wasn't bad enough or off the market enough to justify big intra-day pullback >> oh, for sure, yeah. this was obviously out at 8:30, the -- i think is more or let fits in with the general view. if you were looking for the economy to show signs it was truly accelerating, this won't actually give you the evidence i think it was roughly as expected anyway already looking for, i guess further reasons to say sidelined. this certainly didn't change anything. >> which is exactly the point i was about to -- are you kudlow and cramer they were echoing the fact that though gives ammo to beat up on the fed and ease again >>> josh, here is your 2020 playbook highlighting the top pick, there are are tougher comps, but it's also like salesforce on pace they've had crm delivering margin it is higher end of guidian. adobe also as a fresh high today. i

>> mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day.ll, as we stand, we're 11 points on the dow, well off the session lows, with the dow down over 200 point, the s&p is up 0.2%. let's look at defense stocks morgan, you have that story for us >> huntington angle with a new 52-week high , all day overall for now, at least. lockheed one of the worst performers today though, only down fractionally, as we do head into the close about 0.3 of a%. that some of these names were some of the biggest gainers. >> up significantly and in the short term >> i think there's an expectation now because of the geopolitical landscape that you continue to see that number increase going into 2021 there had been an expectation that expense budgets were expected to flatline we'll see how it plays out, though >> geopolitical events that cause the spikes in the defense stocks are usually times to lighten up a bit they've got, as you pointed out, great performers the defense budget can always move up a bunch, but there's been a move up recently. >>> another sector

. >> and oh, yeah, mike santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading today andn't level him out, dan nathan is here as well we are down 205 on the dow let's kick things off with intel, which is the best performer on the dow on a percentage basis today after beating earnings estimate, initiating upbeat full-year outlook. we discuss whether he's seeing a slowdown in china. >> it's been a bit more stable of late. i think the more cooperation that we see happening between the two governments, the more progress, the lower the tensions, i think the more deployment of capital for new areas of compute growth. it's a big market for us it's been growing, reasonably stable of late, and we expect modest growth. >> all more impressive in light of one of the rare weekbays for broader tech. >> inintel was not really a leader they are the cheap ones, the street's very skeptical over the course of multiple quarters. i think that's why the outside move today when intel joins the part after the market has been rolling for a while, it's not the beginning. put it that way. >> it's a

over to mike santoli for the final dashboard of the day. >> sarah, consumers feeling a-ok today.idence numbers this morning you mentioned it earlier it was a rebound back up toward the peak for the cycle but not quite. this is the long-term chart. we haven't had a sustaineddown turn good news. but look at the current conditions, the present situation consumers feel minus expectations for the future. this is a downtrend. chomping around the lows food is great not sure about tomorrow obviously not a sustained downtrend. so still okay. but it's hard not to suggest that we are later in the cycle here guys. >> thanks for that up next the key things every investor needs to watch for tomorrow so when a hailstorm hit, usaa reached out before he could even inspect the damage. that's how you do it right. usaa insurance is made just the way martin's family needs it - with hassle-free claims, he got paid before his neighbor even got started. because doing right by our members, that's what's right. usaa. what you're made of, we're made for. usaa man: how can i deliver superior long-term resul

let's send it to mike santoli for today's market dashboard. >> school is in session and we're going to look at grade inflation on wall street, people handing out very generous scores and failing a test, target studied up for holiday season and its sales fell a little bit short. and then honors and demerits, big split between the high valued and cheapest ones and then good work habits, an indicator of domestic economic work getting done. first of all, take a look at this chart, the s&p 500 over the last ten years, alongside this measure from our friends at sentimenttrader.com that shows the number of price target increases relative to the number of earnings estimate increases so in other words, when this number is very high, as it is right now, it went above this threshold. you're seeing a lot of analysts raising their share price targets without necessarily saying we think the fundamentals are also looking brighter. so clearly when you've had this persistent rally in the market, analysts feel pressure to raise the price target or say sell the stock at these levels. so the previous time

. ♪ ♪ >>> good thursday morning, happ new year jon fortt with morgan brennan and mike santoli live at new york stock exchange. carl has the morning off it is the first trading day of the month and the year stocks are rallying to kickoff 2020 fresh record highs for all major indexes. bob pisani is with us to breakdown what could push the markets higher. >> what a different january 2nd makes. remember this time last year, a year, what a difference. january 1st, last year, look what's going on, the market was pricing in earnings recession. remember that phrase stocks were cheap. fast forward a year. the opposite is happening. the recession didn't happen, earnings recession didn't happen, the economy is strong, stocks have gotten on the expensive side so the issue is whether we can finally return to earnings growth after an essentially flat year in 2019 most strategists are expecting mid single digits earnings growth which would take pressure off the higher multiple the market has now early reports from companies reporting the end of november are mixed with big names like fedex, nike, mic

we'll send it over to mike santoli for today's dashboard. want to dance for you? >> i will not, but perhaps elon musk thinking that embarrassing videos are good for his stock price. here are a few way to say regard the tesla overall value. these tell la in terms of stock market capitalization. offly it's been a slow climb, and almost got vertical, it's now something like 82 billion for tesla right now. gm and ford pretty stagnant. there's another way to view it the enterprise value calculations, which includes not just stock market value, but also the net debt for each company, it shows you that the economic footprint of gm and ford is still much larger. a lot of the debt that they are reported to have held is really not corporate debt it's basically vehicle financed debt it's loans that are backed bick car receivables, things like that it's not so much comp value, but nonetheless this still shows that as an economic entity gm and ford still much larger out there, but, you know, the market wants to value tesla's future, and the past businesses. now, let lookic at

i'm carl quintanilla. >> and i'm sarah eisen along with mike santoli. cnbc senior market commentator >>> stocks finished up the day little changed we saw some of the gains slipping as fed chairman jay powell spoke this afternoon. the fed leaving rates unchanged as expected. no major drama or fireworks out of that decision though the s&p is kind of closing here around the flat line yields slip, the dollar slipped as well. mostly interpreted as a dovish news conference. the russell 2000 was an underperformer all day and finished in the red than most of the major averages. >> post-market session is going to be busy facebook, tesla, pay pal, microsoft, all on the way. we'll break down the numbers as soon as they cross >>> first let's talk about the market joining us, chairman of strategic research partners, and the chief market strategist and still with us, karen finerman, metropolitan capital president. >> let's go to you first, david. take-away from the federal reserve and the news conference? >> i think it was pretty dovish and kind of a somber message a

a second intro is cool everybody knows mike santoli has been doing this so long.d is this a time to say that. >> i think it's pretty specific to what they were selling in terms of electronics they have run up so far so quickly. >> target shares were up 94% last year. they were the 4th. >> it's about 110 before the last earnings report it had a big fourth quarter run. it does offer a little bit of a gut check. the premise is very strong economy. enough to go around. going to have it figured out it's not going to matter that much >> margins in retail are not that high. so to your point this is a business it's very hard to invest long-term. the margins keep on declining. this is where you have the biggest deflation. they have to spend on technology and leverage their all time high was at least $130 and change. they are trading just off of that all time high. >> this was a situation where target always traded at a discount to walmart if you look at price to earnings and then rebilled that valuation. the market put them in the elite class. it's still kind of there even

we're now in the closing bell market zone with commercial-free coverage mike santoli is here to breakial moments, and we have lindsey bell as well. we are higher, let's -- with the 737 max, as ever, he joins us. phil >> wilf, this is a software issue that involved a specific piece of software. it's not for the entire flight control system, but there was an issue they discovered while powering up this piece of software within the plane. they discovered it during an audit of the 737 max software that was done last week, as you look at shares of boeing, that's when the shares dipped down. the broader question is, will it push back a possible certification flight will that be pushed back most people believe it won't be pushed back any further. the idea is they still can think they can return to service >> fill, just the fact that the word "software" comes up again in the discussion brings back the idea that -- how often is that part of the a process , some legitimately and safely without any need for software whatsoever i just raised that again as to whether this plane has a long testify

i'm scott wapner along with contessa brewer and mike santoli.are live from the stock exchange carl, sarah and david have the morning off. the markets did open lower and we're still hanging out off the worst levels of the morning, dow still down by 220. s&p also around the same percentage loss. the nasdaq able to hold on to 9,000, down a little more than the other averages, a little more than three-quarters of 1%. >> our roadmap this morning begins with the u.s. drone strike killing a top iranian commander overnight in baghdad many we tell you which sectors to watch this hour as the stock sell-off continues >>> plus, the review from the fed reserve. chicago fed president charles evans joins us >>> airlines getting slammed oil prices strike, and today's biggest movers straight ahead. >>> first, we have economic data crossing the tape. ism manufacturing index for december coming in at 46.2 compared to a consensus estimate of 49. the government is out with november construction spending, up .6 of a percent economists were looking for an increase of

mike santoli, thank you. >>> here's what's coming up on the half. >> announcer: upgrades from my chron and western digit all. our "call of the day." >>> plus the investment committee is ready to ask your questions. to reach es, go to cnbc.com/halftime or tweet us. "halftime report" with scott wapner and the traders is back in two minutes at leaf blowers. you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. make ice. making ice. but you're not mad because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad get e*trade and start trading commission free today. doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacist-recommendeding? memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. ...it's almost like a mywchallenge everyday to seeey. how well i can eat and still enjoy myself all day long. i wake up every morning to see how much weight i've lost and how much bet

i am jon fortt with morgan brennan and mike santoli who is doing all the shows today.om post nine at the new york stock exchange. it is santoli friday a u.s. air strike killing an iranian military leader in baghdad causing oil prices to spike this morning stocks dropping. eamon javers has the latest on that from washington >> reporter: good morning, jon now getting red siran and aroun wormd. the supreme leaders saying harsh vengeance awaits criminals behind the killing of qassem soleimani, that was outside the baghdad airport. in france, president macron says he discussed the situation with russian president vladimir putin and state department in washington, jon, saying that secretary of state mike pompeo is speaking with a number of world leaders this morning, briefing them on the situation, including a statement suggesting he has been speaking with high ranking pakistani military officials. for his part, the president of the united states offered his explanation for justification for the attack on twitter, also kept a relatively muted presence on twitter you see his

. >>> welcome back to "power lunch" i'm mike santoli at the new york stock exchange beyond meat up 10%ek on hopes it could secure a supply deal with mcdonald's after the fast food chain talk with rival impossible foods broke down. the stock could go above and beyond in 2020 setting a $130 price target let's bring in your trading nation team today, jayson o'hara and danielle shea. a wild ride. the fever broke on that real speculative phase but where do you see the stock at this point? >> looking at the short term pattern northwest say. the stock has been pretty much sideways and trading in a relatively narrow range. let's remember this is still a relatively new issue any time we start to see alfred e. neumans come in to play we typically see a pretty volatile reaction earnings has been a pretty strong catalyst. we've seen absolute moves of 40%, 12%, and 22%. we have the next earnings date set for february 14th. i don't expect this tranquil sideway price action to last too longer as we set up for alfred e. neumans to be released. >> danielle, obviously the question surrounding this compa

mike santoli also at the desk.he individual movers that are moving today and for the week, real really have to do with earnings. it's earnings season, coronavirus, election uncertainty. >> excellent earnings still have the power to drag stocks higher, although i do think it's telling that today you are seeing some of the formerly bulletproof leaders like apple give up more than the market. there is a little more of a let's reduce exposure here so many things are moving around today that you mentioned, sara you know what's going to happen on monday is the chinese market is going to open with a huge loss you're going to have that catch-down move in china. >> theoretically we should have already priced in in the u.s. market. >> right if your question is, is this the time, i want to buy aggressively ahead of a weekend what could possibly come out over the weekend about this virus that's going to all of a sudden make you feel better about it i'm not saying people are right. that's how the psychology works once you lose

. >> mike santoli just said at the end of last hour, they continue to be bought. >> they do but here is the thing, after the runs those have had, it's reasonable to trim, take that dry powder and say when another attack occurs -- i hate saying it but i'm saying it when another attack occurs, put that money you trimmed from those high flyers into a great opportunity. they're all over the place. >> i think what we're really seeing is the momentum isn't just earning a valuation there's real momentum in demand. we looked at overnight fear and people thought -- i thought the market would open down today it's obvious a lot of people who put in buy orders because they thought the market would be down and they would get to buy more attractive prices, they're pushing the market up. it's many of the same names. let's face it, there are people who have been very bearish on the market, have been trying to plow back in fourth quarter up 9% they are still buying when they think they have an opportunity, even if the market is making thelma pay higher. >> i think we expect when the calendar changes

. >> euphoria, you call it what you want, mike santoli is looking at whether it is peak happiness. he is at the new york stock exchange >> go back two years -- actually, one year and 50 weeks ago is the moment, late january of 2018 that i a couple of months after that called peak happiness. what was that? the level of maximum valuation to that point, investor optimism and momentum in the market all three of those things seemed to have peeked for the cycle in that moment. i was quick to say even in the absence of those things the cycle can grind on and you actually have higher index levels would the those things getting to their prior peeks however, what we are seeing right now is resembling those conditions we have the highest forward valuation for the s&p since we had then that's an observable number we are keeping an eye on right now. it was lower in 2018 because most analysts had not incorporated the tax cut benefit to earnings in 2019. arguably we are at peek valuation. optimism is getting there. i think a lot of the options based trading and position indicators are telling us

. >>> meanwhile, near session lows for stocks, lost the 29,000 level on the dow mike santoli back heret's going on? >> minor fatigue i don't think it was much of a move to the upside i think one thing to note is all week long, really as we got into this year, there has been this kind of below the surface kind of calling of the market, in other words, a lot of stocks have been pulling back there's been a little bit of profit taking, the very largest stocks, continue to outperform the nasdaq is slightly green right now, have been somewhat ob skr securing that. i think -- obscuring that. i think the jobs number was expected and perhaps a reminder that whistleblowe're in a modes environment. >> hard to pin this on one thing. it does raise a question about whether or not phase one signing will be a sell event "south china morning post" with a fascinating piece, why there didn't end up being a trump xi signing, and maybe it reflects how both countries see the deal differently. >> right in other words, if it sort of turns south, didn't want to have that to look back upon i thought that we jus

9135 back in a moment >>> s&p record highs along with the nasdaq we'll close out this hour with mike santoliwho will talk about how the market is willing to tolerate all kinds of geo political events. >> yes the market will tolerate in the right cadence. we came in this year with the trend being very solid broad rally. cyclical groups are leading the way. everything was in place with a couple of risks. one is, you ran out of things to worry about, to be honest. that was going to be a headwind, no matter what the question is, was this enough to puncture that sense of optimism and get the market to have a little bit of a short-term gut check in order to make people feel smart, adding risk when they already had enough risk coming into the year i don't know if it did the job, to be honest with you. people are still pretty happy right now. i do wonder if this is just a little bit of relief because you had gotten hedged into this moment longer term, it's hard to say that the rally is not substantiated by super strong credit markets and at least for now the macro and corporate data going the right

our mike santoli was just at post 9 and has made his way back as we can talk about levels here. >> yeah>> in the past week or so, thinking morgan stanley, tom lee have said look for 5%. >> exactly 5% is another two or three from here still in the realm of something normal we went something like 74 days without a 1% move to the market. we go through these thing where is the market kind of ignores everything and once it stops ignoring everything it gets saturated in the risks for a little while and has deferred selling going on i think that's where we are. in terms of levels right now, 32, 40-ish or so in the s&p was the low from monday. i don't know that that really has much significance beyond it being the low for monday but, yeah, that's where we are i think we've in a way on a macro sense, we've kind of missed out on the trade piece dividend that people were immediately building in after we got some kind of a deal last year, just because of the interruptions to global trade and chinese growth that are happening because of thisvirus >> the dow is down a bit more than the s&p right now

. >>> and we are awaiting results from boeing and it should be right at 7:30 mike santoli and phil willo us when we get them. we're all looking for the same thing i think. >> yeah. what is the company going to be confident in saying? obviously, the cash balance, secured more debt. that's all good. just a matter of how long you're going to be burning cash with the return right now. >> the dow is up 130. it's actually up this morning. >> that stayed in last year and not the year before them. >> it's a little bit patient. >> the year before december. >> i understand the numbers are out. phil, let's get right to you what are they? >> for the fourth quarter, boeing reporting a earnings loss of $2.33 that's well below the estimate of analysts expecting a profit of $1.47 boeing is reporting it's first annual net loss since 1997 revenue at 17.9 billion. remember you're not delivering maxs that's going to have a huge impact in terms of revenue negative 2.7 billion for the year negative 4.3 billion in term of free cash flow there's three important items that we're going to talk about all related

i think the center for financial research along with our own mike santoli.ke of what happened here? we teased this and it's been on such a -- it's like a roller coaster. the idea was a little bit of economic momentum in europe. china stabilizing and the u.s. economy continuing to shug along so the idea was that rates probably would be a little bit higher and it raises a lot of uncertainty. we're seeing a response to that. >> overdone, underdone >> if i knew a lot about the coronavirus i could weigh in on what was going to happen with it i'd have a better answer for you but i think for the moment it's a reasonable expectation that, you know, if you lock down millions and millions of people in china and you disrupt supply chains you're going to get slower growth so that's what the market is responding to. i think we'll probably see ten year yields hold above the 1.5% level because below that you would discounting a global recession or a significantly more fed easing. the bar is pretty high here in terms of doing anything and it's in the direction of easing if

. >> boeing just can't get out of the line of -- more on the market impact joined by mike santoli.ontributor aerospace and defense analyst at jeffreys and covers boeing so many times. and time to start buying is that ever going to come what happened in the past 24 hours. how does that impact your investment decision. it's a 737 so it's not related to the max at all there's 6,500 737s out there a quarter of the world's fleet there's been ten accidents since the aircraft entered service in 1997 and 8 of which have been fatal and none of which are engine failures. it's a little bit too early to tell how this accident is related to iran but clearly the 737 has a very good track record >> sometimes i wish we could just say everything. that it's irresponsible that there's so many things swirling around even they're not entirely reputable about what's happening here i'm hearing number one there's been some technical issues with some of the engines in the past that have been identified and it's not totally out of the realm of possibility it's very rare with two minutes and the flight patte

but if this keeps going we'll talk about that legitimately being the effect right now, guys. >> mike santolithe markets, mohammed el-erian. since we've seen the specter of a possible, much greater retaliation than what we got, it's not really based right now on fundamentals. i can't ask you for a short-term outlook on the stock market, i don't think, unless we know what's going to happen geopolitically can you speak to that and the overall environment we're in right now? >> thanks for having me. you heard friday on your show me saying that the most likely outcome is the market will fade the risk of reaction to the intensification of iran/u.s. conflict it works very well for markets to do so we've been conditioned to do so. and we are going to remain constructive in the short term it is very difficult to derail this market in the short term. so if you have a tactical mindset, this is a wonderful market do it through the sort of exposure you heard mike talk about, because that's what passive investors favor. they favor higher cap companies. but over the longer term, the list of uncertainties a

i'm becky quick along with mike santoli and andrew ross sorkin joe is off today because he's sick let'snow. the dow futures indicated down 200 points we have down well over 200 points this morning as well. down 222 at one point. that's probably the lowest levels i had seen. >> and the s&p down pret tir close to monday's low. so we had that nice rally on tuesday. looks like we'll back out of that. >> give back all those gains there for the month of january as well and for the new year nasdaq indicated down by about 71 points this morning and a lot of this is because of fears related to the coronavirus not being able to get a handle on what that's going to mean economically or where it might spread or how. treasury yields this morning are well below 1.6%. this happened yesterday after the federal reserve signaled they're going to continue to buy and expand the balance sheet for the next couple months you'll see the ten-year at 1.556% >>> also, tesla shares are charged up after reporting fourth quarter results elon musk taking another dig at analysts >> i do think i love the retail investo

mike santoli has his market -- >> and if you're wonders what got us to the doorstep, not quite, it's very simple. it's big-cap technology stocks >> apple a good part of the reason, moiismt the secondmost important, and, of course, a suite of semiconnect or stocks like nvidia. tame, re that mean reversion trade? center stocks rallied, why they were greatly beaten up. that's not been changing oil stocks are resuming their downward trend if you don't get fundamentals behind it, the price will come down guys, back to you. >> bob, thank so much for that let's focus to the banks, there's been a absolute of notes ahead of next week my main takeaway is the where. they're not quite as positive as they may seem on the surface but the former seeing only 16% up side. the latter just 10p% bar calculation upgraded, but did down yay wells fargo the most significant becoming happen rfrgts haw upgraded. >> that price target as lower, though, at 260 as rates have risen, outlook for the sector is now not bad. that is, as opposed to outright bullish. it's possible that net income year over year could be

we'll stick with the banks a closer look at the numbers, analyst david long as well as our own mike santolig to you both david, i'll start with you that jump in expenses at wrvells fargo that will fred was referencing, what are your thoughts. >> we've known expenses would remain high for wells fargo. however, i didn't expect them to this this high regulatory issues on the company, new ceo charlie sharp coming in, he's taking a focus here on improving the relations with regulators. the first step is fixing the foundation of the bank, which is getting the relations with regulators right what we've seen recently is from an i.t. perspective, there looks like head winds there. so going forward, our concern here is that expenses remain higher for a longer period of time than what some bullish investors were hoping for. >> yeah. he's got quite the to do list in terms of turning things around at wells fargo how quickly does he need to execute? what is wall street? what's an analyst like yourself give him in terms of a time line here. >> sure. well, he's only been in the seat for three months it tak

correlated to each other but high energy prices are often shown to go along with high recessions >> mike santolins us at the table. what do you think of this at the world leading to growth valuation increases. energy independence is more secure we're immune from flash bombs all around the world and that's why we're here. >> yeah, there's a sturdier corporate sector for all those reasons. i don't even know if it's just what's been happening for years and we know it's happening for years. but the market is laser focused on hunting for long-lasting cash flows. right? it sound boring. i go to the corporate bond market, okay it's a 3% to 4% yield world even in lower grade investment grade bonds. you price the rest of the world according to that and stocks make sense here. not that they're cheap not that they're going to give you wonderful returns for ten years from here for this price, but they make sense. i think that's what apple is apple is at a free cash flow yield that is the same s&p 500 it is that 20 times free cash poi flow >> apple has almost doubled. it's up at 17.5% this is just apple the

it joins apple, microsoft and amazon that have dipped back below the mark joining us is mike santoli gor who is the managing director of predictive analytics and gentlemen, welcome to both of you. >> thank you for having me. >> mike, let's talk first about alphabet and what it has just done by getting into the trillion club. not a surprise been waiting for this to happen. >> this is the market that we have so those three stocks that now have a trillion or more market value together, $3.7 trillion in market value essentially no net debt and roughly $150 billion this year together in net income they're trading together at 25 times about this year's profits. that's kind of where we would be at a, you know, later stage bull market making new highs. doesn't mean that we stay there but if you look back to late 99, microsoft hit 600 billion at its peak this is about where we would be if you accounted for inflation. >> some of those stocks climbed to those levels. >> except they were 40-50 times earnings and not 25. it's built on the profitability of the winner take most tech businesses. >> i

the research analyst is also with us at senior markets commentator mike santoli i'm going to start withe doubling in the past year finally happened and it happened i guess on the air pods that's being simplistic because there was no apple car, none of the things that apple was supposed to do ever happened. >> yeah. >> and i wasn't going to mention it but he has a pretty good relationship with washington too and people didn't know -- >> that was the lifting of a negative. >> that was a lifting of a negative but my question was going to be a chicken and egg question, the s&p has been unstoppable in like a scary way, just keeps going momentum wise and apple is a big part of that and the s&p going up the s&p going up is a big part of the s&p going up and apple going up is a big part of the s&p going up. >> exactly it's a big class of group of stocks like apple and apple is the lead one in the last year that's driving the s&p 500 so yes, in the last little stretch of time its a we want to buy stocks give me an obvious great one to buy. i like the flavor called apple and i'm going to buy it.

from this event, mohamed el erian he's on the "squawk" news line cnbc market news commentator mike santolith us. how many sessions will we be talking about this, mohamed? nobody knows, i understand that, because it depends on what happens from here on out between the two countries. what do you think? >> i suspect, joe, that the market consensus is going to be to fade this pretty quickly. it has seen this movie before, and this movie before is a spark in political tension, textbook reactions that you talked about, stocks, bonds, oil and then the markets fade that. however, the issue, joe, is not the immediate. the issue is how this plays into a much bigger theme that you and i have been discussing which is constructive short-term momentum versus major medium term uncertainties. >> mike? >> yeah, i definitely agree with that the market -- the moves are relatively muted i think it was important to understand what the setup was in markets where you had the momentum move in equities. i think the market added back a little bit of risk premium but very muted moves. >> does this end the momentum o

. >>> we are under an hour away from the opening bell on wall street mike santoli is here and he has we should be watching in the markets. mike, good morning. >> yeah. certainly one of them, becky, the story has been clear for the last couple days, oil and gold up, stocks down, a pretty textbook kind of geopolitical gut check we've gotten over the years. this is a longer term look at stocks versus gold versus wti. five-year chart. stocks have done a whole lot better they are a trending asset. companies build value over time. the other two are commodities. a couple periods like 2017 where they went in inverse directions. stocks up and you had crude down, gold basically doing nothing. but other periods when obviously oil and gold moved in tandem, oil and stocks moved in tandem, gold is moving also on the fact that we have zero real bond yields right now because inflation is low. lower. so i think the point being here, there's no static rigid relationship among these things, and right now, we had a stock market that came into the year essentially priced and people positioned for clear sa

think we're positioned for another low and slow type phase in this bull market >> all right, mike thanks mark santolidavid? >> let's go to jon fortt for a look at what's coming up on "squawk alley. >> ipos rental consumer products opened not long ago. up around 6% sd, atndorl coming from the naaqth a me coming up on "squawk alley." ♪ ♪ woman: what gives me confidence about investment decisions? rigorous fundamental research. with portfolio managers focused on the long term. who look beyond the spreadsheets to understand companies, from breakroom to boardroom. who know the only way to get a 360 view is to go around the world to get it. can i rely on deep research to help make quality investment decisions? with capital group, i can. talk to your advisor or consultant for investment risks and information. >> as we look ahead to monday when the chinese market opens and people are braced for a barrage of selling, both in bonds and equities and how that could spill over to the rest of the world. >> see you then. after the break, we are all over the sell thauf morni-off this m. amazon on the best pace for t