let's get to mike santoli with a lowser look at the action, mike w all sectors working right now. >> it is very broad with the exception the epicenter reddit stocks that are on the decline taking the pressure off the portfolio restructuring. the shakeout from last week. 3.3% we gained back most of it. this is a two year chart of the s&p 500. we are hovering at the level where it fell apard part in the middle of last week. see if it can recover from that. i want to point out late january into early february of 2020. that's when you had a oopsy right there. it was a very, very orderly uptrend from the fourth quarter of the prior year just like this one was. you had this big gut check it hit the 50-day moving average as this did and it rose higher from there now i am not predicting the fall off the cliff that was obviously an outside shock that struck the market the point is we may have been in the market for a little bit of an excuse to back off some anyway look at some of these risk appetite indicators, subsectors of the marks arc investment, arc innovation, kind the flagship, almost

mike santoli to you first.hs and lows. the dow, a high. the nasdaq, a low. which sums up the intraday performance quite well. >> yeah, it is a jagged rotation happening within the markets the mega caps that drive the nasdaq really having a rather messy elloff it is getting disorderly in things like an schedule tesla. and yes, you have that bid -- really a tenacious bid in the market every morning selloff has of the least been met with buying in the old economy stocks and the reopening trade. all that stuff is easy to observe. i think the bigger question is does it knock loose anything along the way? does it destabilize the market is this because you had a lot of preconditions in this for a pull back very low short interest. crowded positions. goldman sachs reminded us in a lot of the big growth stocks still. and hedge funds still with relatively stretched equity exposures. all of those things have been in the mix for a while now. the question is did thing get too erratic with the selling from big cap growth. by

results from airbnb, doordash, virginia galactic and nikola kate rooney has the game stop latest, mike santoli tracking the markets. and ryan gates from dough which caters to retail traders mike, game stop is surging and yields are back up again, tress res are up. >> the treasury market has been search forth the pain points in terms of yield and the speed in which we get there in equities that caused selling in the middle of the day in treasuries, 1:00 when the treasury auction for seven year debt didn't go well that's when you saw the flush. we bounced there here's the s&p just above 2800, we have found stickiness there what we are doing is going back to january's highs is that an area where maybe we can get ratification this uptrend? it is similar to what happened back in january when we go back to december's highs. i doesn't always work this way but it is not uncommon for the market to go back and test and see if it finds buyers in those areas. you talk about game stop take a look at some of the areas that are on the whip end of small investor appetite. micro caps up 24%. interactive broker

cisco -- plus, canopy growth is coty, two stocks moving in opposite directions >>> joining us, mike santoli, tracking the market agency and kayla tausche has the details on the president's meeting with business leaders a few minutes ago. mike, let's start with you. >> volume is light, drama level is low we had a negative opening on the indexes, and didn't bring any follow-through selling seems like pretty much this upwand grind mode is intact until further notice we had a little drop plow that trend. i seems as if this is still where we are everybody anticipating we are ripe for a pullback, not happening yet. do want to look at tesla which of course maybe one of those risk-appetite bellwethers for a while. this is on a one month basis this is honestly just the recent act. but the drive etf is the electric vehicle and autonomous driving etf. that's up. nasdaq and s&p are doing fine. tesla down almost 4% from the high now it is up from 400 and change to well over $800 a share right now from november. so obviously, it has doubled in a rapid amount of time, hit a massive high but you could say

mike santoli tracking the market action looking at the developments in the spac world today. phil lebeau has details on apple's auto future. and kayla tausche has highlights from president biden's foreign policy speech. first, mike, talk about the markets soaring to new heights. >> a nine day road trip from old highs. now it has slotted into this upward grind that's the way it looks right now. 3870 was the entre day high back early last week. we are close to this this is a six month chart. this was this orderly uptrend we are in for a while we didn't have anything more than a 2%, 2.5% pull brett kavanaugh. then we had that encouraging lower. it probably helped to moderate extremes and sentiment we will see how long it takes for those fo to rebuild. probably not very long spacs. this is a racier part of the market higher energy. clover health is a spac that in other words issued shares in the spac and then merged into with this company, a medical software company, a medical billing company. hin denberg research came out with a bear report mentioning allegations, basically sayin

. >>> mike santoli and jill carey haul joins us. mike let's begin another choppy session, but decent intraday recovery from worrisome lows >> the lows were impressive earlier in the session just went back to the earlier week lows as well. some people thought that was a test but an having cross section of the stocks and bonds it attempted to create this little bit of a floor, again, going back somewhere near january's highs, 3850. we are.chog around the areas at the down 3% from the yule time high area is where the market has so far found support today what's going on is the large cap growth stocks are coming back as bond yields receded. that's helping the indexes even though the ample stock is to the doing well stocks versus bonds. last day of the month. we talked about a week ago there was a potential to move out of equities into fixed income because of a massive outperformance by stocks over bonds. you see some of it i think today in terms of the bid in long term treasuries and other bonds as well as selling pressure on equities th

one hour left of trading mike santoli tracking the market action and joining us to discuss the climate for retail investors. and alley mccartny from ubs. mike, kick it off with today's market moves notching are you new record highs. >> in a low drama orderly way. feels familiar to some of the rallies in the past. look a the two-year chart of the s&p 500. as i kept saying, kind of returned back to this narrow orderly uptrend. people thing look frothy but this is sort of under control in a rotational market the pullbacks are brief and hort, causing just enough nervousness to ge to the next leg higher also looks like what we came into 2020 with it is almost like parallel tracks interrupted by the massive crash. look at 2017, the year bracketing that. showed this same type of action. post your post 2016 election burst higher which we also got this year starting on october 30th then this was your grind almost all year this is right around where we are stretching through into february for a bit of more of an accelerated upside it can happen that we could have these low volume tilts grind hig

i'm wilfred frost along with sara eisen, and mike santoli, cnbc senior markets commentator.k as a whole, gains up 7.7% for the russel, 6% for the nasdaq 4.6% for the s&p and 379 for the dow. sod, up .4% for the three major indices with the russel up 1.3%. ten of the 11 sectors higher today, led by materials. all the 11 sectors higher for the week coming up columbia's ceo weighs in on the surge in online sales and ongoing supply chain challenges nancy is still us and gabriella joins the conversation as well mike santoli to you first of all. clearly, big gains for the week as a whole we could also mention yields rising for the week as a whole also something we talked about every day this week, the vix falling considerably this week i guess a bullish sign. >> there was a little bit of a mini panic a week ago. it got up above 35 people had a sense they wanted to hedge to the downside the sense it was overdue hit the trading community. then it bled away because the market itself passed that test of the 3% drop i think it makes you to the point where you have to look at your index

mike santoli, i'll come to you first. you mentioned it there in the internals.lish is it to see the vix pull down so aggressively over the last couple sessions and does it suggest we've got through the shake out and there is kind of an open field in front of us? >> it is certainly a positive and down a lot in a short period of time. it did pop well above 30 that is always a supportive aspect of when you see the markets recovering you do want to see the implied volume tilts bleed down but again they were almost too high last week relative to how much the market was down so i still think we're dealing with a market that hasn't fully calmed down the way you would potentially expect it to given where the indexes are relative to the old highs also seventh day in a row where we've actually had a bit of a weak close sell-off into the close. i don't know if it is rebalancing flows naturally moving away from equities or just, you know, the market is at a high and we have to sort out these levels and spend some time here for a little while. overall as i said before, credi

mike santoli tracking the action as always and also joining us our guest from navy capital. looks like it got a little fuel after powell >> it did. sort of regained its footing in the morning. you had the minor stumble. seemed like the faint echo of the short squeeze volatility, related to some of the cannabis stocks just got the large growth stocks pulling back, too. it seemed as if people were wondering if that game was back on maybe not so much. just not as dramatic you see again very orderly up trend. there is a lot of kind of undisciplined, frothy stuff seemingly going on in this market but the s&p 500, the big caps, this is kind of just this low drama up trend it is definitely getting a little technically over bought arguably inviting some kind of flattening out along the way but so far it is not really displaying that kind of warning necessarily in the market action itself just yet. take a look at some of those areas where people are very over excited. ipos and in particular spacs this is a three-month chart. you see both of those up more than 40% itf, a billion dolla

one hour left of trade mike santoli tracking the broader markets. mike, what are you seeing? >> market itself, broadly speaking, s&p 500, is pretty much at a bit of a sand still. little bit of a for real estate into a record high this morning. but there are cross winds. all the indicators of future economic growth doing very well. but the s&p 500 itself is sort of the caught at the point of the uptrend. basically, it has been riding this very orderly climb higher it is pretty much still the case underneath the surface there is still a lot of back and forth. some growth stocks not taking too well to the sharp rise in treasury yields. the bond market is increasing dramatically higher inflation closer to or exceeding the fed's goal i think we have a chart of the two ten-year treasury curve. record highs right now this is a dramatic, steep rise obviously the picture here is saying the fed is not doing anything for two years that's anchoring the two-ier yield where it is. it is happening on the longer end of the yield curves. here you see the investment grade etf, the bank mark on

we will get her game plan for that congressional testimony mike santoli is here with us of course tracking the market action as always mike, come to you first of all what do you focus on today sort of soft week so far and some of the more over priced tech stocks that are struggling most of all. >> exactly kind of listless though i do think we had a couple bounces off morning lows around 3900 level in the s&p 500 and then also a little more of a boost after the fed minutes were released not sure why there was any suspense about what the fed was going to say but nonetheless seemed to clear the way. the weakness we have, the restraint on the s&p 500 is coming from the big growth stocks apple most particularly is down a couple percent tesla coming up from losses, too. really just staying right within that kind of rally channel we've been in for a while. we kind of had a couple lower toward 3900. came into the week over bought came into the week with maybe seasonal headwinds but so far not netting out to a whole lot except some profit taking in the big nasdaq stocks. the retail trader a dominan

mike santoli tracking the market action meg tirrell following the latest vaccine the middle east news developments as we gear up for president biden to make remark this is hour out of pfizer mike let's start with you and the markets. what do you see? >> operated in a narrow range most of the each a ibt of a downdraft each day. really driven by what's going on in the bond market treasury yields ramping. the large cap growth stocks under pressure, apple, microsoft, weighing on the s&p while you see things like bank and cyclicals doing just fine. industrials as well. you see basically curling lower from the top this channel key keep talking about today is the one year an verse of the precovid peak this is essentially more than a round trip of course we are substantially up15% since that peak of february 19th, 2020. a dramatic v in the middle there. stocks versus bond, year to date basis, s&p 500 again, a proxy for long term bonds both corporate and government the reason i plot this is we are expecting as we get to month end rebalancing activity if you are in a 60/40 portfolio, you are no

let's get straight to mike santoli tracking today's market action mike >> morgan, thank you spmuch the market is cooling off, flattening out the past couple days s&p 500 has been in this really well defined channel we keep talking about. but when it gets to the top and bumps up against that upper end of it, is tended to sort of pause or curl down a little bit. you have some room here before you have to worry about if we have a 3% pullback maybe you're talking about challenging the bottom end there. otherwise, nothing too much changing the trend make some fatigue is all we're talking about right now. take a look at small caps more thanned measured two ways. russell 2,000 versus the s&p small cap. what's interesting over very long periods of time the s&p small kal tends to outperform. 060 stocks, all profitable russell is all unprofitable stocks unprofitable ones taking off that's a big margin of outperformance over a year's time and this shows you the low quality rally, little bit of the speculative edge into this market a lot of study of the retail trader going on. sell side firms keep

mike santoli, let's start with you and the broader markets. very strong rally basically since 10:15 a.m. yesterday >> pretty good follow through today to yesterday's upside reversal we kind of popped back into this long term up turn. you can't really see very well yesterday's intraday drop and recovery as well on here but it looks very much like what happened in late january back then s&p had the air pocket and backed down to previous round number levels in that case 3 3700 similar here went back down about 3800. recovered. now all of that looks like it is very lock step and like a clock work thing it might continue to be but i do think it tells you that there is still a little bit of risk of some friction in this transition, this realignment of the market we have in the direction of value look at some of the sub sectors what has and has not been working as well. so this is financials and transportation on the upside you see those guys have continued to go up in the past few days here you have some of the growth leadership cloud stocks and sof

check out some of these insane stats. 323 of the s&p small cap 600 are up more than 25% this year mike santoli and you've got 126 of those names up more than 50% and that is in less than six weeks. mike, what is behind this big money surge in the small cap stocks >> the small caps bring together a lot of the themes driving this market they do better when we have a cyclical upturn. they tend to be more geared to the economy but also, just risk appetites and liquidity, driving a lot of these things. russell 2000 against the s&p 500 on a one year basis, they were tracking okay for a while and then you see right around the election, the small cap just really took off and it's now extremely overbought on technical readings and things like that. i think underexamined piece of this look at the top holdings of the russell 2000 small cap right now. yes, half this index is financials and industrials and health care but at the very top here, a $33 billion fuel company that's gone to the moon. novavax, a vaccine play. penn national and caesar's sports betting plays right now so very much the trendy buzzy

one hour left of trade mike santoli tracking the pullback also looking at today's tesla accelerating tumble. we have the big takeaways from jay powell's testimony mike, let's start with this volatile day in the market tech hit hard again. >> it was. it looked like a mini capitulation in terms of the megsy selling at least in large cap tech we have bent but not broken in the longer term trend. the s&p 500 here you don't see the intraday low, which was down around 3,800 it did kind of break below this narrow channel here just as we did in last january. the question is was it just another test we got down near the 50-day average if you care about the technical stuff. it has been technology tesla emblematic of this move in terms of digesting a massive gain, breaking technical levels, having some of the kind of self-reinforcing options buying that had driven the stock up working in reverse i have a one-year here i want to point out thresholds on this chart. it was just before $400 a share when it was going to go into the s&p 500. it goes in to the s&p 500 december 14th, i believe, at $695

guys >> mike santoli, mike, thank you. it appears the short squeeze frenzy is spreading to the cod tees market today. silver prices soaring amid social media chat better the metal. listly picker with that angle. >> that's right. the idea to target silver took hold on social media during the middle of last week with the thought being that if individual investors help push up the siv then they can force the etf to procure more silver to meet demand there is also a need to bring down the big banks which are hedged against fit call holdings it jumped beyond $30, the highest level since 2013 slv are surging, mining stocks like core behinding, heckla and pan american silver. over the weekend retail sites were bombarded with physical orders and coins and physically halted orders yesterday. now there appears to be a lot more debate in the reddit threads as to who is pushing this trade who is behind some of the aliases. many of those behind the gain in game stop last week say they are not behind it. so far, no one has claimed to be

mike santoli our next guest, founder and ceo of the rock creek group, sits on the board of the globalng we can also talk about. thanks for the time. good to see you. >> good to be with you. >> so our viewers are being handed all this information over the weekend about the degrossing of hedge funds, the biggest week since 2009 can you describe what you think the impact is potentially on the broader market because of that >> so interesting, february 1 today. a couple of things worth mentioning everyone has been talking about the demmocktation of the markets. investors having the ability to get into the market to get access to leverage much more easily, but also the fact that technology and social media have entered financial markets in a much bigger way. the really interesting thing i thought that we have been hearing more recently is that it was not just the small investors who have been taking advantage of the run up to gamestop. what was really interesting over the last week was also to watch some of the family offices, some of the very large tech entrepreneur families might have als

mike santoli has return of the reddit trade, also known as whiplash >> it's about half the level from last month. this run-up here, intraday got above $400 back in late january, you have to ask the question, did anything in particular happen to call this revival of this activity? it's unclear the cfo seemed to have been forced out there seemed to be some chatter online or it's just a matter of, hey, we did this once before, let's turn those machines back on. the coattails are not quite as big this time around in terms of the number of stocks riding along, those these two certainly the massively year to date, but you see what they did late back in january koss has gotten caught up in this. it was a dozen stocks back then, just a few today i do want to look at the arc investment flagship, arc innovation, a tremendously hot story in terms of the disruptive tech companies in here you see this great run, still up 47%. tesla the biggest holding here across the portfolio this is another to watch in terms of risk appetites. >> mike, thank you for the charts appreciate that. what exactly led t

i'm morgan brennan we start with a parade of retail investors mike santoli has the story for us a pretty decent bounce the s&p 500 at this point up about half of what it was down last week. the nasdaq leading look at the nasdaq 100 these stocks, they big growth stocks very heavily owned by some of the same hedge funds, they a rough week last week. this is where the buying is happens. that's the spillback guess what the heavily shorted stocks in general are coming off gamestop, it looks like perhaps you could say the fever has broken it obviously has lost bit of that oomph we also mentioned silver this seems like another area that they are trying to targets. it's up 7% it was up more at the open this is a much bigger market, a futures market, so it's not the same as taking a heavily crowded short in terms of small-cap stocks one thing, though, if we do get a cleaning out of the shorts, it's going to leave a depleted base of bearish bets very, very low short base right now. we'll see if that ends up being a negative in terms of contrarian logic, guys. >> michael, thank you. >>> stocks are

. >> ron, mike santoli just showed us the s&p, we saw a little pullback that the hedge funds are derisking two weeks ago. overall, you could make the argument, at least in recent months it's been a teflon market especially the new retail investors what do they need to know and think about with everything we are seeing >> you're probably too young to remember "war games" but at the end the computer at norad says the best way to win is not to play whether it's the short squeeze stuff, getting involved in pot stocks and running them up for a day and watching them fault or getting involve in speculative times of day trading activity, just don't do it do the things -- again, i'm not a personal financial guru, but you need your six months, your 401(k), your health savings account, your kids' college fund, and then if you have vegas money, then go at it, but for retail investors, this notion of a reddit rebellion or the idea that they can take on pros in their own terms is wrong-head ed again, as leon cooperman and others have said, these episodes end in tears i think they're pockets of speculati

let's get over to senior markets commentator, mike santoli, on the higher growth that asset markets seemecause that's what we have been pricing in for about a year. >> reporter: we have, joe. no doubt about it. it's interesting i think the stock market is feeding off of the overlap of the stay at home story where tech earnings have been dominant in social media and everything else that's in play everybody is expocketing economic numbers to get better they are, in fact, improving you have a little bit of a sweet spot 4% dip little bit of a stress test and sentiment check. yesterday we did surmount those former er highs a lot of people looking at 3900 to 4,000 so on the spdr etf, it will be more one way to think about it, the highest earnings forecast for 2021 that i know about, people saying $200 a share. 4,000 is 20 times 200. still a little bit rich. look at long-term treasuries and gold it doesn't always work out this perfectly. look at the synchronicity. people are not interested in hiding in things that appear safe the steepening of the yield curve is weakening the prices of long-ter

mike santoli is taking a look look at how those companies did. >> both before and after obviously worth asking what situation may rhyme with this is a look at microsoft shares from the ten years before bill gates initially stepped down as ceo. very similar in the sense it was also 25 years roughly after microsoft was founded, and, of course, dealing with some regulatory issues. this was right about in there. january of 2000, right near the end of the massive bull tech market that's pretty much what amazon has now, however its valueations has come down. the overall market, of course, for tech did collapse right there. take a look at apple this would be the second time steve jobs stepped down, when he was ill in 2011. a lot of people thought it would take a hit it flattened out for a while in the years after that nobody was quite sure if they could iterate on the -- but massive gains since then also we looked at oracle larry ellison, similar things, gave up the ceo role, but stayed around and involved. that was in 2014 obviously not as steep a trajectory, but clearly they've had their day

back to the hearing, sara, and mike santoli of course with us as well. quite a wide range of things discussed of course because such a wide range of character there is from a defense of section 230, from reddit ceo steve huffman, a defense of payment for order flow from citadel founder and ceo ken griffin. distancing the idea of gamification of markets from the robinhood owner. and melvin hedge fund ceo plat kin. a lot of questions a lot of people being cut short >> it was hard to tell what action could be coming out of this it is up to the s.e.c. to figure out what happened. robinhood and citadel's ceos got the questions about wrongdoing there was a lot of championing of the small investor and questioning of this whole payments for order flow and short selling for payments business did we learn anything new, mike? >> i don't know about learning anything new in terms of what happened i think that you definitely saw most of the focus and the maybe edgiest questions on payment for order flow arrangements as well as general market structure issues i do thin

. >> and mike santoli reasons for people in the northeast to be there in florida and they mostly split time, and is this why wall street could be in south beach? >> well, i don't know to what degree we have to move the infrastructure, and right now, you have the hedge funds sit down there, and citadel did set up in palm beach, so there is no impediment to it, but knit it together, there was a florida land bubble in the 1920s and people did, and it is always the repository for the wealth, and it spills out to rest of the country, so it not surprising to see what happens there with the tax arbitrage happening. >> oh, he is connecting the dots and implications there as well, and we will have to get to that later on down the line. and this is a bittersweet one for you candy fans out there, and the iconic dillons candy bar is closing the flagship upper manhattan eastside flagship location that is coming from the manhattan real estate watcher the real deal that dillon's candy bar is being sued for unpaid rents. and the rents for the real estate rents are being slidinging from pre-pandemic le

their price targets on big-cap tech thinking that, you know, it worked before the pandemic as mike santoli was saying it worked for the most part during the pandemic, yes, it took a little bit of a pause in the later fall and it's going to work when you come out of the pandemic microsoft which a lot of people on this desk own, target rate of 300 bucks at 285 and overweight. web bush, i have alphabet upgraded to a buy at luke capital the target at 25.25. bmo, where occidental faang bulls say it's the first time they've recommended all of the faang stocks let me take that for whatever it's worth it's time to go to the party, and who cares what time, it's good to go >> stephanie link? >> i prefer alphabet because it lagged to the faangs and you willsee digital advertising recover and you've seen it, but the interesting thing to me, the most interesting thing because we know digital advertising is coming back and travel is coming back and that kind of thing and you have operating leverage, when operating margins go up and your bottom line goes up a lot more so i think that alphabet is position

went back to normal here a little bit and here with the hot takes of the day deidre b bosa and mike santoli and so, now, looking at the billion revenue club to join amazon and apple, and so amazon is only up 7% versus 17% for the index, and so could this report be the catalyst to break it out of the slump. and deidre bosa, what are you expecting on the numbers themselves and how big might they be? >> well, we are expecting extremely big numbers. $100 billion revenue quarter is a starting point. a lot of folks on the street think it is going to be bigger than that, but the key here, brian, it is profitability which is not something that we usually attribute to amazon, and hait hs a free pass for several years, but over the last few year, it is a financially more disciplined company, and the street is going to be looking for that profit margin for the company especially when it is spending billions and billions of dollars not only on covid relief, but building it out further, and one-day shipping and that is key. what amazon sort of says about the quarter ahead, because while the revenue is f

meantime, we start with the markets and check in with mike santoli. od where stocks were really topping out before covid hit we start lapping some very interesting comps. >> without a doubt this coming friday is literally the anniversary of when we reached the high point in the s&p 500 before that covid collapse what is interesting is that the current environment is similar to where we were in february of 2020 in some respects. the s&p was up 16% in the six months before that peak. it's up 16% in the past six months you see the 18-month chart, six months of boring up trends, six months of the most dramatic plunge and comeback in market history and six months of uptrend. high yield spreads down towards 3% that's the spread between high yield debt and treasury yield. all that stuff seems very much to rhyme as well as the debate, i think, right now is are investors a little bit too bullish? do we have too much dominance of megacap growth stocks? what about the speculative activity in the early days of spacs a year ago as well that's a similarity. the diff

. >>> we will start with the markets at this hour and for that we will get to our mike santoli. >> weigher. melt-ups raising the question as to who is getting priced in here somewhere between pricing and plausible progress and perfection so one way to think about it, rule of thumb-wise, if you get to s&p 4,000 upside targets gets you to 4,000, less than 3% up here 20 times the consensus for 2022 s&p 500 earnings 20 years a year ahead of it. a year that doesn't start for 11 months yes, getting a little bit stretched. the key is that shake -out reset expectations it maybe brebuilt the wall of w. optimism very understandably is now consensus because of the early recovery forces, fiscal stimulus coming and the profit outlook looks good valuation getting stretched on a year-ahead basis stable since may because earnings forecasts are up. the silly stuff a lot of us are watching, whether it's 350 spacs out there, whether it is the meme stocks that get rolling, it's there it looks frothy. that stuff can kind of roll for a long period of time and we have seen that, obviously. i think that's wh

. >>> stocks finished theday at record high gaining more than 1% for the week let's go back to mike santolintial sell signal for the market what is it, mike >> potential is the key word here this is bank of america's bull/bear indicator. it is made up of a composite of market behavioral things actual positioning, flows, credit spreads, things like that, not just what people say, and you see here, well on the rise, it's just below, as of today, this threshold, where the firm basically says it is time to be on a contrarian basis, looking to sell or reduce risk or expect some kind of correction i think what's significant about it is many other indicators have been in this mode for a while. showing the market to be you fork or overheated this one was not so the strategy group is saying not yet, not yet, not yet. so maybe it is still going to be not yet but we're in the far away i would point out 2018, january of 2018 was the last time you actually crossed above that. it did coincide with a short-term market peak it was down, we had a correction, it did not end the bull market and prior instance

positive joining us right now to talk about what we should take away from that bounce if anything is mike santolind areas that prevented everybody from getting too concerned. here's an orderly trend we've been in a while here obviously you had the burst to the downside intraday yesterday, you went below that call these hernias if it reverses it's no big deal, it doesn't have to be treated. it's really the same rotation of realignment. take a look at different sectors since the s&p 500 hit the record high on the 16th seven or eight days ago. you see the momentum etf is taking the brunt as well as as the large cap growth and the beta, cyclical stocks and stuff that's going to move with the cycle high yield did not give you reason to worry about credit stress the hygtf is not something to worry about there. >> mike, i like the way you put it on twitter, what was it a frat party rally >> well, boot and rally. which is not something i recommend but i do recall. it was exactly what it was, a morning flush and then right back to it throughout the rest of the day >> right, uh-huh mike, thanks, good to se

i'm mike santoli let's get you a picture where the market is going to start the s&p 500 over the pastrom the long and short side yesterday's bounce did a lot to tack on 2/3of a percent. trying to get back into the orderly up trend it's spent a lot of the month of january. i think there's a little bit of a back and forth the one day before yesterday the s&p was up was thursday. that's when gamestop was down. every other day you had a net gain in gamestop and you had it working the inverse. it was the focal node of some of that short pressure. not going to last. not going to be the tell for the market for a long time but it has been for a few days. look at silver yesterday tremendous volume in the xlv. you did have a gain. talking about futures, global metals market, it's just not the same as going after a crowded short in individual smaller company where people have to buy back the stock futures are a two-way street, joe. >> all right thank you, mike. that was an interesting correlation. we have noticed it for a closer look at the recent silver surge and slump, let's welcome wheaton pr

mike santoli joins us now with some analysis. at level bull markets have that hovering over them all the time the s&p 500, in the mode of upward grind reset. expectations a couple of weeks ago. it did get some cash jostled out of the market. this is a two-year chart you basically are on a parallel track to where we were last first quarter into february before of course the covid crisis essentially this is the path we take 2013, 2017 are other years where it seemed like it was a clockwork meltdown we'll see if that's what it develops into. certain things look extreme. stocks versus bonds. s&p 500 versus long-term bond etf. that's up on a perch that looks like it should have backfilling. yields down. that means bonds are being bit we have adjustment of this ratio. people are getting over their skis perhaps with the stocks over bonds volatility has been the one residual piece of institutions wanting to keep their down side hedge. there's one category of professional investors that have not gone in. they take a signal >> mike, thanks

two factors pushing stocks higher including covid data and strong earnings pushing stocks higher mike santolimorning. mike >> andrew, those two things feeding a lot of the up side momentum seems like we're due for a breather in particular take a look at the russell 2,000 index. this is where you got liftoff in the small cap, right around the time of the election, right around the time when there was rotation into value but also into the time when there started to be an acceleration in a lot of the more speculative and themed stocks out there. i'll show you the composition of the russell 2000 we usually take it as a strong economic forecast. this is 40% above the 200 day moving average that's a record spread between the long-term trend and current price. definitely stretched take a look at the largest holdings within the russell 2000 you have plug power, fuel cell company flying with all of the ev stuff. novovax. penn hasn't been doing much of anything this is about 4% of the index. 2000 stock index i keep emphasizing when we're looking at the russell 2000, we're looking at a subset of the mor

nbc senior markets commentator mike santoli joins us now. lean anything from happening. >> there are messages whether you're listening for them or not. i think you want to look at the key appetite to see if anything has changed in terms of the tone and character. the s&p has cooled off, flattened out, been rather quiet in the last few days it's another one of these phases where it seems like the big cap benchmarks are resting and doing not much of anything whereas excitement, energy, speculation, froth and volatility are happening. here we are. flattened out near the highs very much within this trend that's been in place since october 30th this is maybe don't short a dull market applies right here. on the other hand you're seeing some sentiment and technical stuff. these are cyclical indicators, indicators of people basically reaching for a little bit more risk and exposure to the up side for the economy. the semiconductor index we know very powerful. this is the broker dealer index. this is three months over this period of time the s&p is 10

mike santoli is taking a look at the impact that retail investors are having, specifically how they'reen looking at this activity with the options in the stock market not just moving it but some signals we've gotten used to the parts of the market that seem most preferred by retail investors and the influx of relatively new investors small stock and tech investors this is the nasdaq next generation the s&p looks like it's in a very gentle upturn it may be looking like it's over heated the kinds of stocks, micro cap stock volume this is the smallest of the small. the 1,000 exchange listed stocks right now. micro cap volume is a percentage of large cap this is where it is right now. obviously used to be trivial you have 1/3 of the share volume in micro cap stocks. penny stocks isn't even measured by this. massive, massive spikes in volume take a look at what it's doing or not doing to the benchmark s&p 500 index etf. they don't want broad indexes, people who are trading you see overall volume going up as the market rallirallies. typically volume would go up when the market was selling of

i'm mike santoli the reddit rally gamestop, a lot of factors have come together perhaps to trigger anotherhe stock was down a ton and kind of stabilized you had the most famous bull doubling his stage, roaring kitty. and the big director and activist shareholder tweets a picture that suggests that the ice cream machine is working again at mcdonald's. what acts as an accelerant is the "options action" in this stock. here you have the stock pre-market at 150. the call options expeer time at a 300 strike so basically the options that give you a right to buy 100 shares at $300 tomorrow if it doubles are trading at 6 bucks. for context, the intrinsic value is pennies if that facebook, 400 strikes a stock in the 200s is trading at 3 cents for tomorrow this creates a self-feeding mechanism in the short term. this game seems to be on again unclear if there's still the same kind of squeeze potential, andrew if all of the ingleed yents are there. in terms of how the mechanics get executed, that seems to be what's going on today. >> mike, before you go we've all been trying to figure this out who sai

one year before the market hit its peak mike santoli here. >> maybe a little bit surprising given allp looks similar a year and a half long s&p 500 chart. this 6-month run we've had up 16% in 6 months with the same as a 6-month return into the february 19th, 2020 peak we had this kind of grinding very orderly up friend a little bit of a pull back in late january, early february megacap growth virgin galactic, beyond meat were the stories look at junk bond yields exact round trip to where we were one year ago. obviously a big panic in the middle the volatility index interestingly is at a similar run. importantly, coming from a different direction. we spent the entire past year up to 20. here we were rising up to it after a very orderly period. that points to one of the differences which is back then it was late cycle, full employment we kind of thought we knew the story. profit supposed to be flat now early cycle, fed very active spring loaded profit story i think that's the direction of difference we have right now, joe. >> thank you, joe. more on markets now as we get set to kick off

mike santoli joins us with more. >> andrew, tremendous amount of push and pull between stocks and bonds high from the s&p 500 we're still in a normal pullback zone hanging around in the mid 3800 that was the january high. a lot of times that's what happens. late january, back to the december highs in the up trends that's sometimes where things do settle out. obviously we have tremendous pressure on the stocks and the s&p. take a look at this chart. the high beta or very cyclical or learnveraged stocks have been flying this group is driving everything it looks a little bit tired or maybe overbought we have a slight pull back if this compresses, it might do more we'll have more wear and tear on the indexes. the bond market, not just the 10 year, it's more the middle maturities that have the drama between the 2 and 7 year the 5-year note, look where it is the 7-year note, sorry this is above where the 10-year was a couple of weeks ago. it means the market is trying to figure out if the fed is going to accelerate the timetable but also it seems like a lot of people positioned off sides in b