we are now in the "closing bell" market zone, commercial-free coverage mike santoli is here to breakort hills capital chief investment officer steve weiss with us as well. good afternoon to you, steve anything positive for either would be a report closing high nasdaq is up 0.2%. mike santoli, to you, first of all, do you think the marketis expecting these delta case to say roll over, if it got a glimpse of the possibility that wasn't a case, would we see a more meaningful correction >> i do think the market is working on the premise there's not going to be a big business or consumer spending impact. yes, travel-related stuff is suffering. it seem like there will be a softening up at the trends it's just a bit of a work from home, play at home type of flavor it seems as if the market is assuming within the next couple weeks, we may see a crest in this wave. in theory, if it really did accelerate, that might be a sort of downside risk, but it's not really lost that it bet when the economy was going to be able to persevere even in the face of these things. >> steve, what are you seeing

mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day.kick thing offs with the broader market any close higher would be a new record close dallas fed's president was on the exchange with his latest stance on the taper timeline >> it would be my view that if the economy unfolds between now and our september meeting, if it unfolds the way i expect, i would be in favor of announcing a plan at the september meeting and beginning tapering in october. >> we're hearing more and more of this commentary from fed officials this week, mike. >> we are. and it is coming from a familiar direction, which is the regional fed president. so kaplan has been on record as being on that side of the spectrum and boston and others and i don't think today's inflation number altered the equation very much it's very consistent with the idea that we had this surge in the inflation rate and it's going to fade to some degree over months. we're still in that window when it can be -- the question is what rate we settle back at that's the debate down the road. nobody tho

mike santoli is tracking the market action. eamon javers and meg on booster shots for the j&j. mike, the s&p -- >> yeah, another record. a little bit of a round number 4500 on the s&p touched for the first time today not too much significance to that absolute level necessarily but it does reflect the s&p getting back up to the sort of top end of this path keep pointing out this consistent angle we've been climbing on. it is getting a little bit, bumping up against the higher end of this rally line so doesn't mean it stops right here but sometimes it drags higher from here it's really more upward drift. what we have is cyclical stocks rallying, continuing their rebound while the big growth stocks had otherwise kind of held the field of prior months they're not really selling off they're holding their ground, notgetting in the way of the s&p's upward drift treasury yields, take a look here they are having a decent move to the upside three weeks ago, we made a low on the 10-year yield we're up about 17, 18 basis points the other thing about this level say lot of stuff comes togethe

let's send it over to mike santoli who's looking at some of the macro indicators mike, last week, allo glad you're back. the data's still missing. >> as recently as this morning just so i'm clear, the main reason you missed me for a week is -- >> just one of many. >> got it, understood. here is the chart. it's a dramatic one. we've never seen anything leek the degree to which the the economic data was exceeding economists's forecast back here off the 2020 low and the resurgence however, we have dipped below zero that means on balance, economic numbers are falling short of economists' forecasts. that was as recently as this morning. the market pmi index did again -- this helps explain why you've seen perhaps treasury yields been suppressed, growth beating value. the reflation trade has lost some steam all of that is coinciding with the idea we did see peak momentum in the economy earlier this year. take a look at high yield credit spreads. this is the risk spread of junk bonds above treasurtreasuries, y long-term chart here these are also up. the spreads are higher people are demanding

mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments, and stephanie link from hightower. >>> s&p 500 and nasdaq are on track to break a five-deign win street anything assistant out as to what could be the driver and he deep it looks to last? >> just some mess station. we have jay powell speaking tomorrow i would still characterize it as a bounce in a lot of the cyclical groups then they have spilled back again essentially the market probably said they got a little too left behind in this latest phase. it doesn't help to have this ugly news out of afghanistan, and it seems like it maybe sent a bit of a wave of modest risk aversion, but i don't think that's a key driver either day or going ahead to what this market will do. >> as horrible as it is, you said it. >> now sure it's having an impact on oil as well. >> yeah, not even that whether it would be that vector driving in it's hard to separate out what the market is doing today, key existing with this news you have a bit of a giveback, as we got to report highs. >> that certainly has market implication, the ever to push that legisla

. >> mike santoli is tracking the market action, and jessica you recallic urlich is here. >> there are calm fridays in the summer, and then very calm ones. and in low drama ways. the market to be a bit of a his steep angle, so we're hugging that line. right now it's mostly more defensive in growthy stocks. i would also point out, this was last all, remember mid august into september 1st, we have this height surge, a jumpy, grabby market now like this one right now. it's a different path and pace some subthemes, buyback-related stocks have started to gain traction to a year-to-date basis, stability, quality that's what now is gaining some more favor versus more aggressive leverage to the cycle or speculative ames. speaking of speculative names, look at the post-deal spac index. this is a special purpose acquisition company. after the merger, you coat stock as a group that look like this just this week, app harvest, tattoo chef, even sofi has struggled a bit. the smart wound company, really doing poorly companies not really ready for primetime. to no real net detriment so it does show yo

here are courtney reagan and mike santoli and gina sanchez.ould spoil what's expected to be a record setting back-to-school shopping season. the national retail federation expects spending for k-12 students to hit more than $37 billion this year. it also forecasts back-to-college spending to hit a record $71 billion thanks to pent-up demand and child tax credits. surging cases are putting a return to classrooms in doubt. the u.s. topped 100,000 new covid cases on saturday. courtney, maybe it's the kid in me or maybe the fact i was just at the beach over the weekend, i'm a little bummed that we're already talking about back to school and it's already august 9th. where do you see this season playing out? we've never had a season like the one we're about to have. >> that's right. it's different in different areas of the country as far as when school starts i'm from the midwest and the kids are starring back in a week or so, even though in new york city they start much later back to school is a rolling season when it comesa year unli kids being ri

mike santoli is watching the action, and josh lipton is following apple today. mike, start us off, if you will, please, still set for a record close, at least. >> pretty much holding the highs. pretty quiet, not a lot of churn underneath the surface unlike yesterday, more stocks than up and down the nasdaq 100 is bumping up a little bit against the trend line maybe the s&p gets there as well, as you see from time to time as we get near this line the last several months. it has paused. we're also going to lose that peak from the first or second day of september of last year. where we did come to that 10% correction, the last time we neared anything like that, so it will look even smoother if we get to november. take a look at the most volatile jumpiest stocks relative to, i guess, steadier blue chip quality stocks, the high beta index led the way from the spring into the early summer we're not saying it's on the down side, but certainly it's lost a bit of steam, quality good balance sheets, predictable profit margins, that's a typical second year after a recovery

i'm going to call you chief everything correspondent our commentator mike santoli you like that one? you good with that >> as long as it comes with no responsibility >> i can't promise anything. we'll see you soon >>> you guys see moderna today it continues to rip higher hitting another all-time high. shares have doubled. it's the best performing s&p stock this year up almost 340% we're mentioning it today because of that move and the fact that one of our committee members, steve weiss, has continued to buy it. he's continued to recommend it which means many of you may have gotten in with him steve, you there >> i'm here, scott >> what do we make of this now >> well, today's move is actually very logical, even though it's up another 11% because the news that's driving it is that fauci -- i wouldn't say he's done an about-face but talked about the need for booster shots and those that are most vulnerable. as i've been consistently saying, we'll see boosters as a fact of life going out, you know, annually because there will be new variants you also have biontech which reports a great q

dom chu back at hq mike santoli said it at the top of the 9:00, the s&p becoming a growth index megatechs all up dramatically so far. that will do it for us on "squawk on the street. "techcheck" starts now. >>> good monday morning. welcome to "techcheck. i'm deirdre bosa with jon fortt and julia boorstin carl is off this week. today, amazon partners with affirm as the buy now, pay later craze continues. affirm shares up nearly 40% this morning. then fubo tv gets into gaming as streamers have to get creative to retain eyeballs later inside the app store, apple and google facing regulation in south korea and here at home the profits sent, how they share them under scrutiny. >> we're keeping close watch on tropical storm ida and we'll be live on the ground in new orleans this hour all as stocks move to the upside, fresh intraday highs this morning for the s&p and nasdaq >> and that is where we begin at tech stocks and the market mike santoli is looking at how much is left in the tachknk for this rally >> plenty on the nasdaq side of things, on a long-termer term basis, the nasdaq and s&p up

thank you card for that primer awesome stuff. >> yeah, always one to bring the information, that mike santolis is a big challenge for investors, really since the financial crisis, to find yield amid low interest rates. so dividends have been one way to do it but not all dividend stocks are creating equally how do you assess which ones to buy, especially given all of the uncertainties out there right now? >> yeah, you know, dividend stocks aren't all created equal. too often, investors are looking for the highest dividend out there. as michael just alluded to, it's not always the best way to look for a solid quality investment here's how i break it down for my son we can all go out and buy anything we want we can take a credit card, we have purchasing power. we can buy anything. but being able to buy something doesn't mean we're able to afford it. and the same approach has to be taken to dividend paying stocks. any company can go out there and raise their dividends like crazy. they can leverage, they can do anything what we think is so much more important is looking for companies that are payi

mike santoli is here to break down these crucial moments in the trading today., the dow lack lagging the major averages, we're led by tech, as you might expect, consumer discretionary and, mike, i guess starting to look a bet stretch the to the up side or still not? >> i would say the nasdaq specifically or nasdaq 100, yes. ear starting to see the short-term extension of this trend, but it's one of those things where long the way, on the way higher, you've had multiple periods where it's gotten will. onit's been easy to say timely it's game over, but you have to be aware, if you look at some of the big nasdaq stocks, it seems a bit chase-y today >>> jason, what do you make of these gains that we continue to log day in and day out morgan stanley's mike wilson says a 10% correction is all but inevitable do you agree >> i would say last week was the focus on the two mandates, and it looks like obviously we hit the inflationary mandate, but labor is still in focus, on assignment really tuned into what the labor numbers look like this friday, and also i'm interested

i'm david faber along with morga morgan brennan and mike santoli. we are live from the new york stock exchange jim andcarl off this morning let's give you a look at futures, one-half an hour from now, you can see it's called kind of mixed but a little bit up as the implied open at least. we're going to start, though, of course with an update on ida it is now a tropical storm valerie castro is on the ground in new orleans skps, and she jos live with the latest valerie. >> good morning, david we are in the heart of the french quarters. this was certainly not spared by hurricane ida yesterday. it made landfall just before noon i want to get out of the way and show you some of the damage we've seen this morning. this is actually a portion of a roof here at decatur and taluse. we got here when it was still dark we thought maybe it was one of the balconies from the neighborhoods. it's actually a portion of a roof it also ripped down a lamp post with it and damaged one of those balconies on that upper floor. we want to show you some video that we gathered

mike santoli had this chart at the top of the show. but oak let's bring in david herro. good to have you back on the show >> has it been difficult to be overseeing international equities, when the u.s. is clearly outperforming not just the market, but the economy. we were the earliest to have high vaccination rates, most fiscal stimulus, it has been the center of the groan world, but looking forward, it gives me confident that versus a big allocation will be an important, because the things we are seeing -- that we have seen in the united states, what happens when states, lots and areas open, and kind of the book economic conditions, and pent-up demand that slowly begins to get released, these things are happening now overseas, not happening consistently, but we know, as the situation becomes more under control, as the pandemic becomes more under control, with the high amount of savings, the high amount of pent-up demand, this bodes really well for growth these companies have been kind of -- they have had a burst the second half of last year, beginning, this year, but th

mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments today we've got errol investing. record close watch for the dow and s&p 500. energy, materials and industrials are leading the pack today. because of infrastructure? because of inflation trade and rising yields? >> i think all of that is yield is looking like they're backing up in part -- treasuries had huge inflows in the latest phase of the yield compression we got. i think people kind of are rebalancing, i don't want to be leaning too hard in one direction. it's not at that broad, but just enough to keep moving forward. >> charlie, that -- good morning. >> i'm glad you have on today, instead of past days we absolutely think this is sustainable. we think we'll have very good economic recovery. i would add to the list of things that are helping or great earnings we think they'll continue, because there has been an overhang from delta. when we get past that, and we will i'm talking to the day for the first time about $200 per share? standard & poor's earnings >> first, shares of amc turning negative it's been a volat

we begin with mike santoli looking at valuations this morning. mike >> carl, a little break from that pure either/or market in so long either big growth stocks or cyclicals working. seems as if the nasdaq is able to hold its own. look at the nasdaq 100 versus the dow jones industrial average over the last year obviously, neck and neck different phases of out and under performance, but this is actually dated to september 2nd of last year, which was that huge relative peak in nasdaq last summer this time, a massive melt-up in faang-type stocks almost to exclusion of everything else. since then worked off relative excesses still staying in an uptrend. even, by the way, with amazon doing absolutely nothing over this period. it has been a relatively well-balanced market up to now look, too, what's happening to valuations of the nasdaq 100 majority of the marketcap and earnings power of the overall nasdaq trended lower. obviously, this is coming from an elevated level. 32 times earnings, a 20-year high in forward pe back then but compressed down to 27,

mike santoli covering the markets.watch as biden prepares to host a cyber security and meg terrell is following johnson & johnson as they say covid vaccine booster shot generated a positive response. meg, kick it off >> reporter: j&j getting into the buster conversation after its single dose vaccine giving six months later a booster shot and saying that they saw a robust and rapid crease in antibody levels. nine fold higher at that six month market then 28 days after the first shot and looking at spike-binding antibodies here. this comes as the cdc and other u.s. health officials have been talking about how the j&j shot will need a booster but we need more data. they said eight months after the first vaccination of the vaccines people will need boosters j&j jumping in here and prostrigd first of what's expected to be a lot more data to come. we're waiting to see the full papers in a poll out this morning showing that after the announcement from u.s. health officials that people in the u.s. will likely need boosters 77%

i'm david faber with morgan brennan and mike santoli live from the new york stock exchange jim and carl both have this morning off. let's give awe look at futures as we get ready for an opening bell 30 minutes from now. you can see -- let's call it slightly lower and let's get to our road map this morning it starts with ida's aftermath no water or lechty for thousan -- electricity for thousands and restoring could take weeks. >> shares of zoom video sinking. revenue topping $1 billion first time ever but a slowing growth outlook is spooking investors. >> renewed covid headwinds for restaurants. a new report shows the delta virus is hitting the restaurant industry hard. >> start wit markets before we delve into as well the aftermath of ida mike it is the end of the month. for whatever purposes that serves we'll get obviously a jobs report as well this friday. thoughts as we sort of finish up this august? >> riding a couple of streaks here relatively significant. this would be the, presumably, up 3% for august so far, in the s&p 500. seventh straight month in fact, never been up february

mike santoli, julie boorstin, todd gordon, thank you for joining us for this edition of rapid fire. >he ev chick inor the egg problem. the next electric vehicle step that people have to take that could slow adoption of evs on a broad scale. we'll explain that next on "the exchange." do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy, even a term policy, for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized that we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have one hundred thousand dollars or more of life insurance you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit conventrydirect.com to find out if you policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. that building you're trying to sell, - you should ten-x it. - ten-x it? ten-x is the world's largest online commercial real estate exchange. if i could, i'd ten-x everything. like a coffee run... don't just sell it. ten-x it. >>> welcome

. >> joining us now is jpmorgan's head of research bruce and mike santoli.ng us today bruce, you know, we got to get going on taper sounds different than talking about tapering. how do you read these comments from this morning and any major expectations or things to look for throughout the remainder of the week with regard to the virtual jackson hole symposium >> i think you are seeing one wing of the committee that clearly wants to get going on tapering very quickly. but if you look at the last fed minutes you see diversity of opinions and you think the center point of the committee is really to be somewhat patient here, to get going late in the year, but to not really start that process immediately and also not to be signaling it i think at this weekend's jackson hole get together. >> mike, the markets seem to b reflecting kind of this polarization as well do you believe that any type of activity or commentary tomorrow especially from jay powell would be market moving is there any type of surprise that the markets may not be anticipating right now in terms

here to battle it out, mike santoli, the ceo of gracile global, very nice, and nancy tangler.ext we need santoli capital to round things out. >> try to avoid that >> a tale of two retailers dick's is soaring, as the ath leisure trend continues. sales were 45% higher than in the same quarter of 2019 just unbelievable. a different story for in nordst. sales remain below 2019 levels so, nordstrom or dick's, do you stick with the winner or pick up nordstrom as the value play here >> as the shopper i say nordstrom. but as an investor, i think nordstrom is a difficult stock to own there's leadership issues. if you look at their sales, they have not returned pre-pandemic levels and the margins are not expanding as fast as even macy's if you go into the stores, you'll see there's very little selection and they cut back staff pretty dramatically. and you kind of go to nordstrom to get the experience. i think dick's has demonstrated much better leadership, much better management, and they're moving towards the shopping experience and i think that's not the case at nordstrom and so i thi

let's bring in mike santoli at nyc, looking at a few divergences within the indexes >> yeah, julia, divergencese new divergences. look at the russell 1,000 growth versus value on year to date basis. we talked about the interplay here and it was all about value going into may, june, before we had a little bit of a slowdown here and fed was getting active. and growth had this resurgence what is interesting to me, this is roughly both styles, so to speak, are up about as much as the s&p 500 as a whole is. so for periods of time it seems like it is all one or all the other. right now it is showing not necessarily zero sum gain. there is mack rero fears semiconductors, software, now semiconductors have been more the consistent outperformer if you look at it on year it date basis. but flattened out over the last several months and software has made a little bit of a comeback here this goes right long the same lines, not so much value versus growth, but cyclical expectations, how strong is the cycle going to be, how strong is the world economy that seems to benefit semis and risk appetites are rising

or maybe it is let's bring in mike santoli. it's starting to feel like a risk-free rally, but that's probably when you are supposed to get nervous >> yeah, i would say if you really have that notion that basically things have been taken off the table in the way of hazards, sure. let's start to worry but i don't think we're at that point where people are heedless about it one reason is that only at the index level have investors really been kind of held harmless this year without a 5% decline. if you look within the market, it's refreshed itself with isolated corrections why have we been asking this question it's because of distance travel. less than two-thirds of the way into this year obviously the s&p has obviously doubled off the march 2020 lows. you want to dial it back 4500 is three times the level where the market peaked in 2000 and 2007 also a 16%, 17% annualized s&p return that's on the upper end of historical tendencies. what does this year look a lot like 2017, 2013 you had these miraculous rotations among sectors. pe

we'll see how this shapes up >> mike santoli, what's the read these days from crypto back to the traditionalld, inflation where does it fit in your dashboard? >> it is interesting because it doesn't really seem to track with day-to-daymacro type inputs or even necessarily act in concert with inflationary expectations it to me is a risk asset, and it behaves largely like a risk asset. it traded very closely with some of the more speculative parts of the market i'm on board with the idea that it's electronic gold, digital gold but gold also, by the way, was always a little bit of a side sort of orphaned asset class for 100 years after you were able to trade it i don't think that means it gets to the core of the markets if in fact you think that's what it is >> yeah, well said as everybody's concerned about whether it's the new gold, gold itself hasn't always been that exciting or even performed that well as we remember from years during the last expansion speaking about performing well, kathy woods is not completely done with china but he had still has plenty of concerns in a cannot presentati

and nasdaq hit new highs following fed chair jay powell's comments at jackson hole let's get to mike santoliid you dread september? did you hate that song "see you in september"? do you get butterflies >> yeah. >> is it still like that >> it wasn't so much about the song that was a little bit prior to my time of being anxious about the start of school. but yeah, starting in let's say july i like the idea of september coming around. >> did we see a summer of traders taking holiday it's different during the pandemic, i think. do you expect anything different in september versus this last summer period that we saw? >> i don't think necessarily related to the level of participation in the markets, but i think just where we are feel positionwise in the markets. historically everyone knows september tends to be a weak month but so does august and we're working on the third straight perhaps 2% gain in the s&p. in fact for the second time this year it's not that common to have three months in a row of a 2% gain take a look at how steady this climb has been one year ago we were just about making that

maybe a little bit of a stutter step in the growth story because of delta. >> mike, thank you mike santoliiday's jobs report and so much more, allianz adviser mohamed el erian. is this a goldilocks moment or do you look at the jobs number and think the market has to pull back >> it comes from a supportive top down and bottom up top down has been continued and with bottom up strong earnings that has powered the markets through all sorts of things. when you get to the economy, the concern here is inflation. and we're going to get a cpi number this week and the wage numbers in friday's report were really good for the u.s. economy. were less good for import costs. keep an eye on the inflation story. if the inflation proves to be tame, then you have the goldilocks on the economy as well, andrew >> what is your gamble though? is it going to be tame or is it going to be sfwhield wild? >> i think we're going to continue to see high inflation trends, higher than what the expects. higher than what most people expect i think there is a combination of factors, both demand/pull over the lestening but c

i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and mike santoli cramer has the morning off fed chair powell speaksep our eye

. >>> we'll send it back over to mike santoli looking at recent moves. mike, what are you watching?ower the dips, the more it becomes. this displays that pretty well this is the pullbacks from an all-time high by the s&p 500 going back to 2015 what you see from the march 2020 sell jon covid crash, you see increasingly small pullbacks from the all-time high the 10% correction last september into october, and since then, this year, you haven't even had a 5% one. coming up the to 16 correction, nayoer and narrower pullbacks, almost no downside volatility. also post-election year a lot of those excuses for why in fact the market should go down, but it refused to. just to hone in on that period of time, 2017, and what came after, you did eventually build up a lot of complacency and a lot of upside momentum, so this is the 2017, ver steady up trend, looks a lot like this year what we got at the end of that y year. >>> right now we're not -- ultimately if the market does not have in this downside give -- >> buy the dip alive and well these days >>> still ahead, following weaker than expect

welcome to "closing bell," i'm morgan brennan in for sara eisen, along with wilfred frost and mike santolidow the dow and s&p regard intraday highs for both of those averages, record closing highs as well. you can see right there the dow in what was a middling session, finishing up higher. the s&p finishing at 4460 was the left there, up about 0.3%. the nasdaq snapping a two-day losing streak. health care and tech the best performing sectors the russell 2000 -- we will have instant reaction to all of those numbers, as soon as they are released stephanie link is with us, and del no sa-- delano sapporo join us >> small incremental moving, we're nearing a 20% total return, that, of course, includes dividends, 18.5% or so on a price basis alone, also about double from the march 2020 low, so a lot will start to rain down in terms of how good things already been also, i think it gives a bit of cover for the idea that the market is attempt to go withstand and look through the potential slowdown with the effects of delta it's kind of inertia into the options expiration, and we'll see what comes th

market trained consistently, and then pick up strengths >> i was going to ask you if that was for mike santoli's job, since he's not here. >> you know, someone that is to pick up slack when he's on vacation the nerve of him not being in the office >> everybody's bringing it today. >> it looks like a bead. revenue here is up 41% to 6.2 billion versus expectations of $5.9 billion they're bleaking for $1.87 versus 2.01. for revenue 6.3 million versus 6.04 billion semiconductor systems, applied global services, so that would include installation and maintenance of the tools, 1.29 billion, and display and adjacent markets, 241 million. the conference call is at 4:30 eastern. back to you. >> paul, you look at the economies ago a research group >> they were down nine of the last trading days, andthe sector has underperform the s&p 500 since february so, it's interesting to see every companying in -- but the stocks aren't holding up well. maybe that's telling us the shortage of semis is ending sooner than many people are anticipating now >>> courtney has some numbers for you. >> this is an interesting r

i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and mike santoli cramer has the morning off fed chair powell speaks in an hour, plenty of corporate results, dell, gap, pell peloto. we will keep our eye out of afghanistan after yesterday's tragic attack. obviously it's been about the fed for most of the morning so far, and the data, mike, as joe c was just talking about points to a slowdown in spending. >> and the markets obviously have been hesitating in the face of what seems like the ingredients of a slowdown. economic data have been missing a little more than they've been beating in the last couple of weeks. that's a change in tone, and just the way the market has traded you have this bounce in some of the economically cyclical stuff earlier this week. it seemed like maybe the pendulum was swinging and yesterday unwound a little of that i don't think it's very decisive in terms of where the market really thinks the july, august numbers are. it's a lot about, you know, how we get through this. what the beginning of september looks like, and you know, bond market pretty calm credit markets not sen

mike santoli mike, were you on vacation where the hell you been?know, from the sidelines last week, joe. >> missed you. >> i think i'm going to be there on that set at some point in the next couple of weeks too. >> awesome. >> what i do observe coming back on, i guess i missed 2% down side wobble in the s&p 500 take a look at the chart essentially last week at the lows, went back just to sort of the prior month's peak we've done this a couple of times. didn't even get down to the 50, the average which has happened 60 or 70 times the dip was bought the prior month we did that. nothing too unusual going on what was going on last year at this time, you are about to embark in a furious ten day 5% ramp driven by fang. that preceded the 10% decline. we're not in a similar mode. take a look at a picture though of what has been a couple of months of a global growth scare captured by the s&p 500 over the last two years compared to the msci asia ex-japan index plus the goldman sachs commodity index. this shows you the s&p 500, it's a growthy index. defensive

point there, on the comments about whether they should invest in the stock market, i guess we need mike santoli to decide whether that's a contrary indicator or whether the correlation should be positive on the economy, what explains how it is possible to be more bearish than last year, both in the peak of the pandemic and the end of last year as well >> i think there is a little exasperation with all of this. i think there is an idea maybe this is going to continue. there was a sense that, hey, we almost had the ring within our grasp, all of a sudden we're back where we were there is a lot of confusing talk from the government about the pandemic, the efficacy of the vaccine. that's part of it. inflation also looks to be taking a toll out there as well. but, you know, on the indicator, it is an interesting idea if you have information that kind of supports the idea of going against the tide and i think the idea is that if guys like waller and others are right, that this is a spike, and we're going to get control of the virus, control of inflation, then it makes sense to lean against what the pr

i'm david faber with morgan brennan and mike santoli live from the new york stock exchange jim and carle look at futures as we get ready for an opening bell 30 minutes from now. you can see -- let's call it slightly lower and let's get to our road map this morning it starts with ida's aftermath no water or lech