and mike santoli said something pretty smart or perceptive when he was on just a minute ago. he said the first thing you have got to do is pick the right sectors. he mentioned a couple of them. but materials, industrials, they are performing well today. they are going to perform well if we have an ongoing bull market, which i still think we are going to have. and then i would also add consumer discretion father and technology those are economically sensitive sectors and the types of sectors that perform well. the first thing you have got to do is get the sector right those are the four sectors i would focus on then the next thing you have to do is enhance your returns by having a good dividend yield a. good dividend yields in those sectors is always attainable there is a combination that you can do you can go beyond that by working with private equity if your investment adviser can steer you in the right direction towards real estate. that's a little bit beyond what i am talking about what i am talking about, sectors right, dividends, that's the way to do it. >> you are like

mike santoli is tracking the market action. mike, let's start with you in the broader markets. a nice day of gains again for the s&p and the dow, at least. >> further measured progress, any upside followthrough sort of reinforces this idea that there was a pretty decent seasonal shakeout that we got that being said, sort of upward drift, i would say, as opposed to a real forceful move. we have seen a pretty significant rush higher though in the last 10 or 12 trading days, up more than 6% in the s&p 500. some satisfy the short-term indicators starting to look a little bit overbought. when you've gotten these pullbacks and then the rebounds, usually there's a little bit of revisiting where you came from before that. so before too long, typically you have to kind of settle back a little bit from some level and see if it was for real so you don't always get back to the old highs, but it's something to keep in mind just the regular rhythm so if you back off from here, it doesn't necessarily mean that it was not necessarily a decent low that we got 10 or 12 days ago. take a look at t

the big stories in this final hour, mike santoli tracking the market action. meg tirrell with the latest on the vaccines mike, respectable follow through today. >> absolutely. more than one half of a percent upside after yesterday's big surge. has climbed, the s&p 500, above the 50-day average stopping yesterday. the next thing to look for is one month ago september 15th in the 4480 range this market hustles and symmetrical with the low early last week and have stair stepped up from there and can't guarantee an all clear but a lot of the things to want to see lining up to say that you got a pretty plausible seasonable low and they are getting into place and the market never really did let go of the cyclical bias. look at the chart of things geared to rae covering economy and slowdown trades. this is consumer discretionary all equal weighted no two stocks in a sector dominate as you can see, good separation all year now mostly sideways for the cyclicals and nosing above that consumer discretionary it of can get to a new high and the s&p financials today getting

we'll talk with the ceo of ftx >>> first mike santoli is tracking the market action meg tirrell to talk about merck and, mike, let's start with you. healthy looking intraday chart. >> some pressure coming off after the weak close yesterday i think that the merck news this morning taken as a positive. as well as we got this extra leg higher once we saw the reports that president biden heading to capitol hill maybe so that people didn't get too negative that's just kind of conjecture and the first day of a new quarter is positive in recent quarters so we are seeing the effects. this is where we were midday yesterday and did just tack yesterday afternoon's or morning. the highs of the every day this week around 36, 4380 a little bit above here. trying to kind of gather itself here the next step down are the mid-july lows. like 4250. that's the tactical technical picture. market in general has a reset here been talking for a while about under the surface weakness here's the russell 1000. going sideways did nothing going back to april and sort of below where we hit in early june whereas the

. >> let's focus first on the big stories to watch today mike santoli is tracking the action josh lipton with highlights and joining us to break down the event and the impact on apple price is a guest mike, did broader markets nice intraday recovery. >> for sure. some pre-market selling in the futures. a global influence there you could argue. bond yields flying overseas. greeted the investors with a tough cocktail and small positives. more stocks down than up and the bounce seems to have some meaning to folks basically saying the market did not break don't. stopped declining on bad news. also the top in the two-year note yield this morning around 8:00, 9:00 a.m seemed to give way to perform well it is a nasdaq led market. helping things there and bank and consumer stocks also up. look at the mid cap index. outperformed small caps. maybe on the verge of breaking out of the range it is an area that actually is very rewarding kind of got a best of both worlds flavor with it. m&a opportunities. more mature than not overowned might be able to get a little bit of a record high there before th

. >> let's focus on the big stories at this hour mike santoli tracking the market action and steve liesman with the fed's new move mike, what are you watching in the market >> index is pausing at the old highs. from september 2 really some strength in the larger nasdaq stocks keeping that index green and the majority of stocks on the s&p and the new york stock exchange are down on the day but you see this formation still looks pretty encouraging could get a pullback to that level and sets up nicely to give a little bit back of this 13 trading days up. running hot. a couple indicators i look at resemble early july. some of the sentiment measures call back to that. so that's something to keep in mind in terms of whether to slow down and the seasonal factors in the favor. take a check on the parts of the market to reflect where the aggressive animal spirits flow right now. these are three quite distinct areas of the market. cloud computing, fintech and ipos look at the similar shape in the charts back from february and the surge back then why they're coming back and see this recent moves and

costs with jeff currie and savita subramanian will weigh in >>> focusing on the big story just mike santoli is tracking the market action and phil has the latest of cancelations at southwest airlines mike >> remans an indecisive market you mentioned the bond market closed we lacked the guidance from treasuries yields are higher going into today's market session con central banks might be apprehensive and in the confusion zone even as the highs of the day still below let's say the s&p 50-day average and still kind of side winding in this area, still a 3% orso pullback from the highs. doesn't look like an urgent negative action and stuck. maybe waiting for that inflation print. earnings coming. look at the value versus growth dynamic. from the pure value dynamic. against mega cap growth. this is a main kind of opposite ends of the spectrum here for the market thafbl largely inversed. so we have seen as the market in general has struggled pure value statistically cheap stocks did well so you can look at this and say the market is maneuvering to get into position for a reacceleration to the eco

mike santoli with a look inside the rally. meg tirrell is looking at the vaccines just slipping a little be the in the last hour? >> certainly good to have three days straight in a row higher. we got relief but not really the rerisky move i do think maybe tomorrow's job number before the open might be a reason people wanted to flatten out when we did get to the highs. you have not quite taken care of that which is this developing down trend at the highs for the day the s&p 500 was very, very close to kind of closing up this big gap that was there from a week ago monday very close to going above the 50-day average missed those still up 3% from monday's lows why not bad for a few day's work responded to the conditions. all that stuff is positive but these things don't typically go in a straight line and explains maybe why we are fading slightly here today inclusive rally today. been saying since the highs in the market that the credit markets largely undisturbed. this isdating from right about when the s&p 500 made the peak in t

. >> mike santoli is tracking the market action and steve liesman -- >> matching ties. >> inside the jobs report. mike, start us off. >> i think it's october colors the market you could say is a muted response uncertain response to the jobs numbers. evenly balanced between stuff going up and down. the higher treasury yields but enabling the s&p to retain this 1% plus gain for the week and puts it in a little no man's land below the 50-day average above the 100-day average. regained .4 of the losses peak to truf from sect 2 back to monday's low also never did get back to this point here which is the july lows but percent below bottoming out on monday. still back and forth here. slight cyclical bias today look at from pre-covid days. it's significant 1.6% we did get higher than this in the spring remember this positioning shock and people focused on the inflation story and then settle back below it. this is why it's key back in february of 2020 that's really where things fell off the cliff 1.6. clearly not a bad thing in terms of economic message to go higher inflation story is top of m

ideas coming up but we are going to start this morning with the rally and we're tech all of it, mike santolias more hi, mike >> yeah, carl. big tech stock, driving higher in july and august had the worst decline, sort of got most oversold now participating fully. look at the nasdaq 100 -- well, here we have it since june 30th of this year you kind of have a flat line look at the big bounce we got into the high. it's adhering pretty well to the longer trend line. it bounced off the other day look at the nasdaq against the dow, trading off leadership over the course of this year. it's mostly been an elegant rotation it has turned much more messy recently if you look here, nasdaq 100 in white really had a tough time in the spring the dow is fine. we pointed this out a couple times, dow, a little bit of a global slowdown starting in august the big cap tech and the concerted declines, with impacts today. all of them up 1.5%. seems like things got a little too pressured. we're get something relief it's one clear if big cap is positioned you see the banks break out. and one of the reasons the money

mike santoli is down at the cme.ks all month growth stocks have been reviving even thoughe1 the economy seemsxd■to ber reacceleration phase the numbers seem to be good enough to make 2022 forecasts pla■5h%ápj they stand.e■ considering these numbers were u.s. gdp was growing at 2%, slower than it had been earlier in the year. >> mike santoli thank you. >>> let's move to the bond w market we had a seven-year auction0h8 the past hour. internals were pretty strong but pricing was e■weak rick santelli here rick, what do you make of it >> yeah, 183 billion supply out the door 62 billion seven years cv táone app.j■ you are exactly right. when issues it was trading 144, 144.5 and we priced it at 1.461. higher yield, lower price. i tailed and it was messy. all the other internals, especially the indirect and: direct bidders, dealers taking a small amount was very strong probably there is a mixed bag because there is mixed feelings about where interest rates can look at the+ two day of t■tens yesterday was 1.55%, now hovering

mike santoli will tell you, it's a darts business darts businesses are not sexy.n't know if anyone's old enough to remember whenwe used to breathlessly follow schwab and etrade shares and see what the darts were each month. nobody wants to be in a darts business so i don't think the stock even down as much as it is. i don't think it gets killed from here because it's very unique, and it still does have a hard-core user base. i just think there's better places to be allocated in financial technology >> bitcoin, by the way, down 5%. shares of coca-cola moving higher today following its earnings this morning. the company posted a beat on both the top and bottom lines. it saw volume growth across all of categories just to give you a sample, nutrition, juice, dairy and plant-based beverages grew by 12% and both its sparkling soft drinks, which is soda, and hydration, sports, coffee and tea segment grew by 6% i did speak with coca-cola chair and ceo. >> as we've learned to adapt and adjust and be flexible with how we invest and how we execute our business, we have gotte

let's get to mike santoli, who is tracking the market action. fed, inflation, what are you watching >> yeah, it's been a twitchy market all within a range, about 3% range i'd say in the last couple of weeks. not really breaking down decisively but also all the rallies have been brief and kind of weak actually so we still have the short-term downtrend. sort of failing to revisit last week's lows. we have absorbed those headlines, hot inflation number. obviously the fed talking taper and accelerated taper. the market pricing and maybe a rate hike sooner than later. the market is not really breaking down on all those things take a look at the yield curve this is where some of that kind of new thinking on what might happen with the fed and with growth is manifesting. 30 years so, this is sort of an incomplete surge in the yield curve you might say because look what happens after recessions normally it surges up you get above two percentage points didn't get there this time we've curled lower even recently the two-low. it's been since a high since ma

more that three times the market cap of intel over $600 billion for nvidia an incredible rise mike santoli we will see you again soon. >>> let's get to the bond market they are talk being the yield curve, the australian debt that's been on fire, rick, they are talking about the german bund and the ten-year going positive what is going on with bond yields these days? >> you summed it up. basically, no matter where in the world you look central banks either are losing control of markets or they understand it time to loosen the reins the central bank sent a huge signal to the markets. our day-to-day, employment cost index, up 1.3%, the hottest ever since recordkeeping. personal consumption expenditure, core deflators, both year over year, the hottest in 30 years. look at what one week of tens and 30s look like. right now, 1.55. down eight on tens, down a dozen on the 30s for the week. 30s minus fives, one of those freds. the flattest in 13 months. dropping bund yields. they have had high inflation data today it loo like they were going to get a record high yield close at minus 6 it didn't hap

twitter is down 6.5% could today's selloff be part of a massive reset for the market mike santoli is at the nyse taking a look. >> an accelerated day of the reset that's been going on weeks if not months. what do i mean the large cap indexes catching down to the experience of the last five or six weeks ago today it is mostly the mega caps that have take ten s&p 500 back to where it first traded in late june you have essentially swept aside three months worth of that grinding uptrend that was largely attributed to some of the big growth stocks. along the way, a couple of relevant streaks have now ended. it was one of the 12 longest period of times without a 5% pullback in market history that's over. what comes next? historically, you have some further extension to the downside, 8%, 10%, half the time you get a regular correction but never in history was it the ultimate peak of a bull market when it ended those streaks. also seven straight months of gains for the s&p is also swept by the wayside what does it mean going forward? we are seeing the growth stocks having a reckoning and com

mike santoli, our chief markets commentator says his mystery broker >> here's what he tweeted. the mystery broker backs off his call for a correction and now expects stocks to move higher and cites the market's resilience and cites the energy and eps forecast dip, near textbook technical bottoming process and coming seasonal strength is this the week that did it are we back thinking that the market can move higher >> yeah, scott it's a great question, and i have to go back to what john just said. what i'm looking at, the cpi and ppi numbers were a little more tame off the higher base and inflation is here and unemployment numbers were tough from september, but claims data this week had a two-handle on it and it was the first time we've seen that since march 2020 and part of it when i look at earnings and financials, i'm really curious to see how the companies that john just described that deliver things and how do they deal with supply shortages and supply chain issues and input prices rise that's what i'm starting to turn to as we head forward deeper into the earnings season,

bob pisani at the nyse ethan harris and mike santoli join us. ethan, what's the base case for fed tightening at this point >> we don't think they are actually going to get going until 2023 in terms of rate hikes. we will probably here a about tapering. >> when you say on the verge of tapering, you expect a november announcement and maybe a december start date? >> that's about right. we think we will also have a fairly short time frame for ending the tapering. probably next summer. >> let me turn to bob pisani with a look at what the market is expecting for the fed here in light of all the supply chain issues we are facing >> this is a delicate moment for stock investors. steve was talking about the possibility of the fed moving up the time line for hiking up interest rates, maybe up to september of 2022. this makes stocks investors nervous because historically, one of the rules of bull markets has been a fed policy mistake, the market means sudden unexpected moves up in interest rates by the federal reserve that's a worry the problem is, the fed

let's get to mike santoli at the nyse. >> it has been jumpy that's press much what's promised in september. it is living up or living down to that reputation look at the six-month chart of the s&p 500. the picture that emerges is we have over the last five weeks been kind of tracing back and testing whether that late summer leiftation in the markets messily kinds of driven by the big growth stocks was for real, if you are going the see real buyers come in as we had to price in an economic deceleration and policy flux we didn't go back to that level. that's mid july low. at the lows on monday we were only 1% above that traders were looking to see if we eventually got there. the result is we are a little more than 3% off the highs from september 2nd. a little less than 3% off the lows not quite halfway back from the losses there i think it is preserving a lot of kind of uncertainty on both sides. bulls and bears, i doubt they changed their opinions based on this week's activity because it seems to be operating within the bands of where both think the market ought to be look on a month-to-dat

back up the fact that the rally is trustworthy let's bring in cnbc's senior markets commentator mike santoli for the answer to the question is the rally to be trusted, mike jim gave you the reasons why it should be. i maybe pointed out some of the reasons why you can be skeptical if you want to play devil's advocate to it you've been looking at it closer than anybody what's the story >> well, look, i don't think it was fully across the board persuasive that we saw the absolute low last monday for this move in the s&p 500 i bet anybody would say you could conclusively say that. it relieves some of the pressure, it bounced in an area where i think makes a lot of sense as sentiment really has reset lower. and we talk too much i think about a correction as some absolute decline, threshold, or a moment in time or some binary thing are we going to correct or not. the market has been undergoing a correction huge parts of the market are way down from early june those cyclical parts of the market you have the nasdaq 100 5 to 6% down a majority of stocks have been down well more than 10%. so, yes, tha

we'll ask about booking trends heading into the holidays and beyond >>> let's start with mike santoliracking the market comeback and julia boorstin has the highlights of the testimony of the whistle-blower. it's both tech and cyclicals, mike. >> it is broad based. respectable bounce market responding to what had become relatively oversold conditions with damage done below the surface. all to the positive. maybe one little bit of negative progress is today's high and trading right now on the s&p is above yesterday's high we had the days when we got the morning rallies they faded still looks like a stressed condition here just above there like 4380 was an area that was becoming very popular to be where selling came in you have to see if you rebuild damage at the levels still working on not the 6% pullback still in the seasonal head wind period definitely today responding in a way you might want to see. look at the nasdaq 100 it was probably more so down more than 7% this is a year and a half long chart. see if i can draw this sort of trend line that we're bouncing off of there commentar

mike santoli has a look at that rally. mike, what are you seeing today? >> yeah.ee today a little more inclusive than it has been the average stock has a lot of catchup to do to the very largest once today, apple, amazon, nvidia, tesla are responsible for vast majority of the gains in the nasdaq 100 this shows you the ndx concentrated in the top five names, 40% of the market weight is in five stocks. the equal version, equal weighted version of the same 100 stock index that has lagged badly as you can see here, rolled twice in the last couple of months, catching up a little bit today. this is the equal-weighted s&p technology sector. also under performing a bit. just only recently, though and here we have the small cap information technology sector, subset of the s&p 600 small cap. so what you see here basically is the megacaps kind of taking more than their share. you can read this two ways, one of which is it's a very narrow market, concentrated bets. the big winners keep on winning. the other way is we had a consolidation and shakeout in the average stock. most

mike santoli tracking what's driving the rally and wilfred with bank earnings mike >> a better rallies in months. a one-day basis. we talked about signs that the market is gaining traction below the surface. refusal to go to new lows and today release to the upside. yes the good earnings and decent economic data? all seems to have caused one day this recovery move and fear of missing out has people chasing it does that look like october, for example? of last year somewhat a similar double bottom after downside action. a couple of failed bounces the market is rushed right up to what you would consider the next test trading almost to the penny at the 50-day average. seems to go station to station it spent a month below the 50-day average so i think you'd have to say it's encouraging not any kind of a final verdict that in fact we have seen the low of the shake out period but the refusal to go down on bad news is sometimes a tell there take a look at inside the market where the average stock relative to some biggest stocks performed. this is a one month. this is like the equal weighted ru

let's get to mike santoli who is looking at how the different components of tech are trading relativeother. mike >> yeah, jon well, today you know, this rally is floating most boats in tech and outside yields down a little bit. taiwan semiconductor taking pressure off the chip area year to date basis, we can decompose what we refer to as technology into a few different areas. you have a communications services, of course, that's most of faang semis, most directly and then software and they sort of traded off leadership over the course of the year but look at how they're all clustered with roughly the same year to date returns also, right around where the s&p is trading conspicuously outside is tech hardware apple is up only maybe 7% year to date. that's been a drag but not really holding things down what i think is very interesting is here you had the big semis over software move that was reflation that was cyclical. and then you had the reverse really since the late summer it's now coming together what's interesting about semis today, being up to where they are, it was precarious you

. >> let's focus on the big stories of today mike santoli is tracking the action and meg tirrell watchinghe fda. mo broader markets? >> ugly on the index level if you count the overnight sessions it is jumpy within a range. a decent half percent selloff. fully recovered by the morning and 2% above last week's intraday low 4% below the highs there is this short term down trend with the rally fizzling out. that's something that has traders concerned and attempts at traction. that attempt at a low it is the style of a bottoming process that sometimes tacks effect. dialing back to last october it was a deeper pullback and did look like? if you look it is really the bigger stocks and that have been weighing on things the average stock in the market slightly outperforming the s&p 500. this is the yps. yet it spy backwards. s&p 500 stocks but weighted in reverse order so the smallest are weighted the largest the prices do reflect that upside down waiting and actually pretty good performance since the september 2 high in the s&p 500. outperformed the nasdaq 100. mega cap growth stocks with a big

if you are just joining us, i'm sara eisen and mike santoli in for wilfred frost.her by 75 tft the outlier and finished the week higher. third positive week in a row for the dow. american express today, biggest negative is honeywell. s&p 500 closing down still higher for the week. as far as the story today, communication services we know is worst performing sector consumer discretionary, technology and materials weaker. financials leading the market higher the nasdaq down .8%. big tech hit hard today. amazon, apple, the biggest drags. microsoft as well. tesla with a good day following a strong one yesterday netflix up a third week of gains. coming up, talking to tech investor dan niles and what he is watching on the big tech earnings and why he has more shorts than longs in the portfolio. pfizer says the kid sized doze of the covid-19 vaccine is nearly 91% effective to prevent infections dr. levy is back on the show to weigh in on when the shots could be approved for that age group >>> on the markets nancy tengler is with us and david joins the conversation first,

mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day and chief investment strategist from the all-time high oak tree capital with a positive note on the economy joining cnbc earlier today. >> i'm bullish on the economy. i think that stocks won't crap out as long as we have economic growth. >> that's a technical term. >> yeah. exactly. not going to repeat it but he can get away with it because his foirm manages $143 billion it's now searching for something to derail the positive momentum. >> potentially he's talking in broad terms usually. as the economy expands that's the key driver of the direction stocks move and not the speed. the earnings tracking in the right direction and worth asking whether we completed a real reset of this market i think we got the seasonal shakeout and right now burning up the skepticism that built up through september and into october and see if we get something far from there but i agree that given the fact we didn't see any real cracks open up in terms of beyond what really is going on in equities and it seems as if you have a reaccelerat

mike santoli tracking the choppy market action.nd the debt ceiling drama start us off with another wild session now. we've seen five days in a row of 1% moves in either direction >> and while not a 1% move today, we are more than 1% off the morning lows in the s&p 500 even further off the overnight lows it still represents a bit of an indecisive market. we're under some stress. the technical outlook has become just a little bit slippery that far shows you why there's not that much conviction on either side. but those headlines about a potential deal potentially to extend the debt ceiling shows you the removal of one possible negative is enough to kind of relieve the pressure in the short term it doesn't necessarily look like a brilliant uptrend anymore, but it is in the context of a broader reset that's been going on for about five weeks. i wanted to take a look at a slightly long-term view of the s&p to its 100-day average we are right now almost exactly at the 100-day average so, i wanted to bring attention to what happened here

cnbc senior markets common taert mike santoli, and steven weisz as well. ou factor in some of the high-profile big cap declines off earnings most notably, of course, facebook today, quite impressive we continue to grind higher to these records again. >> yeah, facebook, lockheed, in a smaller group, taking down the defense contractors. but in general, in aggregate, earnings are good enough to keep things supported seasonally, the path of least resistance tends to be higher. we're still working off some of the defensive positionings put in place in september and october. people certainly don't want the market to get away to the upside as i mentioned, top of the hour, it's getting a little extended in the short term. a little choppier below the surface. not as many stocks that are participating today, have really mega caps like nvidia and apple. but it's enough to move things ahead for another day. >> what do you make of the facebook turnaround? i know you own some of these big mega tech stocks i don't think facebook is one. >> you know, i actually do own face

i'm david faber with morgan brennan and mike santoli live at post nine. at markets half hour into trading and we are up on all the major averages morgan >> yes we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three of the movers we are watching this morning. we're going to start with merck and partner ridgeback biotherapeutics, asking for its covid pill, if approved it could be available later this year morgan stanley initiating coverage on sophie with an overweight rating calling it, quote, powerful revenue growth story and you can see those shares are up 7% on that we're going to end with aspen technology announcing a merge with emerson businesses, a software deal worth $11 billion, cash and stock deal, valued at $160 per share for aspen and you can see those shares are up about 7.5% emerson is down about 2% david? >> somewhat complex transaction involving those software side of that you're looking at it, can the bounce in the stock market be trusted? that is a column from mike santoli over the weekend you asked the question, what's the answer >> i t

cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli is here and lindsay bell with us, as well.markets. stocks selling off today wiping away all gains made on friday the nasdaq the worst performer on track to close at the lowest level since june 21. down 2.2%. mike, this is very much tech leading the declines, having of course over the summer propped the broader markets up. >> it is a give back s&p 500 back to late june levels and didn't have the higher highs the way that the nasdaq 100 did. the s&p itself indeex is in a little bit of a fragile state. we kind of lost that automatic rotational uptrend we had for a while. it seems as if we're not really talking about new kind of macro concerns making the way into the market very much seems flows and unbalanced equities down today so it's still kind of a getting oversold on the index level and doesn't mean that the declines stop on a dime. >> lindsay, we are about to go into earnings season again really in full swing you track the expectations if fedex or nike are any indication it's going to be a little bumpier than the previous s

it's relatively encouraging so far. >> all right mike santoli, thank you.ly. supply chain disruptions may worry some companies but albertsons isn't feeling the sting, delivering strong second quarter results announcing a 20% increase to its quarterly dividend and raising the outlook to the 2021 fiscal year. joining us for a first, vivek sankaran it's great to have you back on in terms of the numbers you put out this morning, we were talking about the strength of the consumer talk us through that as with you have also had to navigate supply chain challenges which you've been hearing from so many companies. >> thank you, morgan yes, we feel good progress we're making in the company and the results we delivered i did hear you talking about the consumer and the consumer, we think, is still really strong. we haven't seen any trade down in our business which you would typically expect if the consumer was weakening and continue to be eating at home in my opinion i think there's some stability in their behavior and they're strong you're right, there are some -- we'

good stuff mike santoli >>> bitcoin soring more than 20% over the last week of trading.n. dot awhe.n'gonyer think you're g to like it here. umm, why is everyone... throwing things at me? look, as cfo it's my job a closer look at what's behind the crypto rally when we return. don't go anywhere. randomly hurl things at me. it's also why we use workday. it gives us insights, so we quickly pivot our strategy, people, planning, you name it. sorry, sir. i will aim straight at your next step. see that you do. would you like some coffee? workday. the finance, hr, and planning system for a changing world. ♪ when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim even better, for awe listen.world. like jack. he wanted a streamlined version he could access anywhere, no download necessary. and kim. she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds. so we gave 'em thinkorswim web. because platforms this innovative, aren't just made for traders - they're made by them. thinkorswim trading. from td ameritrade. >>> one f.a.a.n.g. stock has dodged the tech rec. netflix's blockbuster rally an

mike santoli joins u to break down the snapback rally. etty resilient here not necessarily broadly inclusive a move you might expect but the software sector is leadership for various parts of this year for the overall market the software etf here, igv is in green. you see not only at a new record high but nosed ahead of the s&p 500 on a year to date basis. with the significant help of two of the heavy weights, microsoft and salesforce together are about 18% or so of that etf of the overall sector, just the megacaps really doing more of the heavy lifting. take a look at more broadly in technology if you do an equal weighted version of the s&p 500 technology sector, the ticker this etf, also reasserted itself a little bit, got that double bottom look to it in september, october, but not quite yet back up to those highs. similar to the overall market. so obviously semis might have a little more room to come back. so it seems like the growth trade is back in gear to some degree it's been pretty tough to extrapolate that all year because we swa

>> mike santoli thank very much. >>> small caps rallying along with the rest of the market this day. our next guest says small cap logistics companies are a good place to invest. he rupds the federated her mess kaufman small cap fund in the top 1% since its inception in 2002 let's bring in steven denickolo. i hope i am pronunesing that right. in a yeah. >> i asked michael about inflation, supply chain concerns how real a worry are they for you and the universe of stocks you cover? >> it is a great question. the overall mark peaked in early september. we have been grinding lower the last six weeks as i think investors have been grappling with difficult themes, the emergence of delta, fed tapering, and supply chain disruptions. look at the russell 2000 small cap index. it is up 15% year the date most of those gains were at the beginning of the year and we have been essentially flat since february highlighting the macro this year. usually you have a parade of negative preannouncements from lawn mower shortages not related to demand but to supply chain issues rising prices in raw materia

. >>> let's get back to amazon trading lower today, as you know and to mike santoli, who has a different of looking at its valuation compared to peers. hi, mike. >> compared to peers specifically of aws and web services, the cloud software business over the last few months, amazon shares have done worse than flat whereas the comps, microsoft, alphabet, snowflake, digital ocean they've actually had a very good run and presumably because aws has done better than expectations in the last couple of quarters, you would think that that piece of amazon is gathering value the same way that these comps are and this is b of a's way of looking at things here and what's happening is the market is devaluing the e-commerce part of amazon by default. take a look at amazon relative i have noted for a while that it's traded more in sync with the cloud group than it has with retail and it probably does tell you that it's becoming an increasing part of the valuation arguably on the sum of the parts basis over time. it seems as if this would be supportive of amazon's valuation, the idea that it should have

mike santoli is watching that and taking a look at the rest of the year mike >> yeah, carl.the huge cap stocks participated in the upside this year but not driven it will maybe close this gap or not if in fact higher treasury yields will be an excuse for cyclical stocks to lead which could hinder the overall s&p this is the last eight months in the s&p 500 versus the new york stock exchange faang plus index. this index is hampered by the fact that alibaba and baidu in there. you can probably look at this two ways and say there's now upside for them to mean revert higher but it's unclear at this point if that's going to be the way facebook is actually improving today but really come back to the pact it's one of those things i put in the category of we just don't know if, in fact, this going to be something that follows through because a lot of the work if you look at what the market's message has been that there might be a cyclical reacceleration, banks higher, industrials doing okay that does not necessarily work to the strengths of the s&p 500 which is predominantly a growt

meanwhile, tesla is putting the t in trillion joining the likes of apple, microsoft and amazon mike santolias a look at that valuation. mike, we said this morning it added two fords to the market cap gain just yesterday. >> yeah. obviously tesla and ford operating really in different galaxies, feeding off of different investor energies and really mindsets and sendries you might say. how many macy's and walmarts did amazon consume on the way up that's maybe the way to think about it tesla no doubt being sort of valued as a software and kind of world-changing story, not necessarily as a manufacturer. i have a year and a half, just about a year and a half chart up here because i want to show how the kings of gains and these sprints that tesla has is not something unique to right now. so this right here shows you when tesla announced a stock split, august of 2020, in three weeks the stock went from 275 to 500. it's a nonfundamental input. it shouldn't matter to the valuation, it mattered to the stock. as soon as you got to that split was effective, the fever broke that was when faang and other

. >> mike santoli, what would you make of the valuation, netflix at 635 today obviously it overshot the 720 now. >> you had to be pretty aggressive, how you want to describe the valuation, put it in a target. ubs is talking about 37 times 2025 free cash flow to tell you how far you have to stretch, but it hasn't mattered necessarily in the long term in terms of how the company has performed and the stock has performed. my read on how the shares have behaved recently is you came out of that sideways period just at the moment when every other competitor took a shot you knew what traction those services did and didn't have it didn't seem to make an enduring dent in netflix, you know, subscriber trend even though they missed on one quarter and it was fine. netflix is the incumbent and they are tv right now. so what do you pay to participate in that? i don't know, but i do think that the market is basically saying they've weathered a lot of the threats it is not so much what to come >> "squid game" reportedly generating almost $8900 million in value for them, but according to ubs netflix has

mike santoli has a lot more on the selloff. >> i think it's best viewed as part of this on going kind of painful reset in the market. just the weight of the large cap growth stocks continues to be the main story recently as we have this messy rotation transition when we go down in price in the s&p, you also go back in time. one element of that reset, we're trading at levels in the s&p we first reached in late june so you got three months worth of upside essentially kind of wiped away for now and essentially retesting those mid-year levels. take a look at the nasdaq 100 etf against what you would call the typical stock in the russell 1,000. so, the average stock against the large cap growth stocks and they kind of had this round trip together this goes back to early july and right now you see, yeah, that big outperformance built up by the nasdaq 100 now surrendered entirely and today by the way, you know, that equal weight russell 1,000 is down only one third of 13rs compared to more than 2% declined by the nasdaq 100. that's th

okay when we come back, mike santoli's pre-market playbook on a wednesday morning and then the interviewe tcng "uawahisqwk box" you are tcng "uawahisqwk box" and this is cnbc. [coins clinking in jar] ♪ you can get it if you really want it, by jimmy cliff ♪ uitcase closing] [gusts of wind] [ding] [gusts of wind] sustainability is essential to creating a better tomorrow. that's why cisco is committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2040. and we believe our smart buildings solutions can help. providing power to reduce emissions, intelligence to eliminate waste, and collaboration tools that help the workplace and the planet. between meeting human needs and a sustainable future, there's a bridge. cisco, the bridge to possible. >>> a little more than an hour to go on the opening bell on wall street, mike santoli joins us with what he is watching in the markets as the s&p rides the five-day winning streak. >> pretty aggressive come back not too surprisingly, they're in for a breather one thing we did with this rebound is retake the 20% year-to-date gain level on the s&p 500. this is a one-ye

mike santoli will break things down let's kick things off. nasdaq currently on track for record closes. mike, good spending news one of the factors, a bit of a bounceback from yesterday's pullback as well >> yeah. it seemed as if there was an element of yesterday, kind of the wimpy moves in the bond market, causing a bit of a rebalance at the end of the quarter. stock equities performs it by less than six months it wasn't just that. i think we were due for that today, back in gear, marginal new highs for the s&p 500. it seems like the economic data were firm enough that it keeps things in motion, plus these responses to microsoft and alphabet moves off of their great earnings, i think, has people not wanting to get in the way of things. >> is it not a concern, stephanie, we had 2% economic growth in the third quarter, which marks a very sharp slowdown from the quarter and came in below what economists were looking for bond yields are up seems like the market's not too concerned than. >> i don't think they should be that concerned about it, sa

i am david faber with morgan brennan and mike santoli live at the new york stock exchange. at the markets. a hour hour into trade the nasdaq eeking out a small gain, the broader market down slightly at this moment. >> we are 30 minutes into the trading session as david mentioned so here are three of the big movers we're watching in a daywhere there are a lot of movers we'll start with ibm, shares sliding with revenue below analyst forecasts amid weakness in the cloud business and a pullback in client spending. those shares down 7% right now plus at&t, that is moving higher after beating earnings estimates. revenue topping expectations with the company seeing growth in demand for its phone and internet services and hbo and hbo max. you can see those shares are up about half a percent right now csx reporting an earnings beat driven by an increase in shipping volumes 3% higher than the year-ago level the surge in revenue, just out pacing the surge in expenses you can see those shares are up 3% speaking of freight railroads and transports, we'll speak with union pacific ceo lan

mike santoli, again, yields are climbing that's generally good news what do you think this time aroundg markets. just that general sense that the jobs number. as federal bank globally -- i would say a welcome bounce, but not necessarily the most persuasive one 4400 area, 50-day average, all this technical stuff, that's playing out. we're up 2.5%, still down 3.5% from the highs, and looking like maybe a bit of an ebb -- sort of a little test to the down side this morning talk about opposing currents we have the banks, they have broken out to a newhigh, but semiconductors, another area of the market that you kind of want to see performing well, if you want to believe in the force of a rally. they've been looking like oil and water here you had all they are periods and we're in another one right now, so it shows you a reflation idea, we have this rotation going on, it's a bit of slippage along the way usually when a market is in gear, you would like two groups working together and it's not mapping right now in terms of whether we saw enough of a bit of a flush near the down side, take a l

little pieces that might actually allow investors to reset for the final three months of the year mike santolis themselves are undergoing a reset what does that mean? look at the chart of the s&p 500. just in price terms were back to levels basically first reached july 2nd you have three months of the clock work gains you've crunch through some of the shorter-term levels, so you've gotten a bit of a scare that reset sentiment fuls, we dialed back the clock on those streaks we haven't had a 5% pull back, and we brow through the seven-month win streak which was extremely long from february through august all of those things allow you to stop and say what is going on. take a look at the s&p 500 etf relative to a very brought equally weighted russell 1000 etf. they have waxed and waned over here, and then the big growth stocks came back i think under the surface, it's still the cyclical sectors, so maybe it tells you even if the market as a whole is having a bit of a gut check. the five-year treasury note yi yield. >> sort of longer-term inflation expe expectations also, last week we didn't see a

picture and the senate debt ceiling deal we've got the right people for all three of those stories, mike santolie stand ahead of this big number in. >> as we head into 8:30, the stockmarket is in the ready position which means it's not leaning too far one direction. we have a 4-to-5 week slide. then we bounce almost 3% off those lows essentially, where we sit right here is almost evenly spaced between the september 2nd high and low from early monday. that's the inter-day lows. yesterday, encouraging to have a third day of a rally, encouraging to have a little bit of relief from the downside momentum i think. on the other hand, the rally did peter out almost exactly where a lot of skeptical traders said it would. a lot of those things are definitely leaving open both sides of the argument for the debate take a look at the yield story the five-year treasury yield is an interesting pick here you've nosed the above the spring-time highs. this is more dramatic than the ten year, which is low the spring highs right here in the vistin cindy of 1%. the five year incorporate the outlook for the fed tight

still, there's a bear case to be made mike santoli is here to tell us about what it is. >> actually lastde a case it had done a good job of discounting, and perhaps what the fed is going to do. technically if you look at the s&p 500, it did win over a lot of skeptics. we also got investor sentiment pretty negative, so people are wonder if we see something like in late october of last year, where there was a durable bottom made after that month after a correct in september, and as you see, it created a scoop there, you know, put some distance between us and the lows. now, take a look at some of the biggest stocks in the market on the nasdaq it's a mixed bag in terms of whether we see progress being ahead of us for the s&p itself look at the advantage that facebook has given up in the last few months. it looks like it might firm up today. apple, amazon, the market has done what it's done this year. these three stocks, by the way, are about one eighth of the index, 2u8ly a drag, make that's a positive for the rest of 9 market the inflation story is not going to go away take a look at how in

santoli, mike santoli has been looking at the health of the american consumer amidst all these earningset was having a little struggles. it was not saying the consumer was in pad shape s&p 500 making further progress back authorize those highs raised in early september. 45, 45 was the inter-day high a. little below that on a closing basis. so the market making its case that it did have a proper shakeout arc reset everyone's expectation went down, earnings forecast got more conservative along the way so you can't say in the clear, but the market is definitely much more black in balance very much a clothe-led move yesterday. keep in mind, it's the nasdaq stock that has this punishable above their weight yesterday take a look at the consumer staples area this is etfs that equal weight those sectors. it takes away the outsized effect of things like tesla, for example, and so, it's been, you know, participanty much nudge toward new highs, sideways for months look at the big spread the the market was concerned about consumer spending power and stress is building up, you would see consumer sta

. >>> let's get back to the broader markets after yesterday's big gains on wall street mike santoli has is after months of hitting above those levels and falk back. >> it looks like upside follow through. some things have gone sideways six months look at the s&p 500 has been on the defensive for i would say six weeks basically since the september 2nd high yesterday itted a one big bite back to this 50-day average. you see it acted as the dip buying level for most of this year until that september 2nd. we spent most of the past couple months below that. this also happened back last fall remember second 2nd high as well in the zaps&p and this was not a deep a drop. it's not necessarily as aggressive a recovery as we saw back then. it was pretty vertical but it seems as if we put some distance between the lows and where we are right now also yesterday, it's hard to see there, but you broke this little down trend so a lot of people are saying, okay, maybe we give the benefit of the doubt to the fact that the market had a little firmness to it. take a look at the consumer discretionary. this

goldman with a new conviction buy let's kick off with the market >>> down at the nyc with michael santoli. mike> yeah, kelly mostly green here. the big-growth stocks providing more of their share of the push higher, within 1% of the all-time high. i think it is 4536 as a closing high on the same day one question is the market going to follow the seasonal script perfectly two years in a row last year and this year, september 2nd, high. sell-off for three weeks into september. a bounce, a further decline and a recovery last year we didn't get done with did downside until october 30th, right before the election. right here it looks pretty textbook the way this is working out. so you would have to say you give the benefit of the doubt to some of the seasonal advantages. one thing i will amend, kelly, that b of a fund manager survey. the fund managers were bearish a week and two weeks ago when the survey was done. that was here, not where we are right now. that sells you about market psychology look at the style and sector moves here banks versus technology, they've kind of each had their moments ov

for more in the markets right now, let's turn to cnbc commentator mark santoli, maybe add to that, mikenot be enough to give your stock a boost this time around. >> that's for sure, it seems hike overall moving in the right direction in terms of aggregate earnings growth, potholes along the way, the overall s&p 500 you mention as new high, new highs are bullish. it's not necessarily a reason to fear however, seven straight days up in a row in the s&p 500, it's kind of ban slower trudge higher in the last couple of days a lith little bit mixed. just enough to get back over the edge a lot of the stuff i sort of look like, it looks a little like early july in terms of this upward creep in the markets, long winning streak. a lot of the sentiment data is very similar that was not necessarily a scary moment in the market, sometimes it will flatten out from here. now the growth versus value trade has an interplay with the rising yield story on a year-to-date asis, it's kind of fascinating, almost a dead heat here i have been talking about this, now, growth had a hard time when yields were surg