up next mike santoli will join us >>> our senior marks commentator mike santoli joining us with his "midday word." i guess a slowing economy is, you know, perversely good for stocks, at least in the moment what it's not good for is obviously crude, which is now under 73 energy is the worst sector today. and we haven't talked about it yet on today's show. what are your thoughts here? >> i would say, first of all, a slowing economy is good for stocks to the degree it's just a slowdown from strong levels and not something worse. crude looks like it's a combination of obviously an oversupply of market in the short term you see this persistent weakness it gets us back to the ukrainian invasion, really i think demand concerns in the back of traders' minds, but, to me, more than anything, it's not really telling us anything special that we can't see in the other numbers except for, you know, production is near records everywhere but opec, and it seems as if there's just enough out there. i'm not too worried about that as a signal. it does fit into the overall narrative. we spent months hopin

our senior markets commentator mike santoli is here. is bears on the run. >> after last week. >> it felt like it last week. >> if you got squeezed, you get the chaese. the market will relentlessly go up 1% a day. the russell 2000 down 7.5% last week and down 1.5% this week. all of the gauges were pinned to the max finishing last week. i still do think you want bonds to just calm down as opposed to just yields coming in because we have the ten-year down 40 basis points, it's up ten today. you still have a sense of an agitated market and not a lot of conviction behind these moves and a lot of momentum signals and all of the stuff people are talking about on a technical basis is better at suggesting there's a good low end than saying it's up and away from here. we'll continue that, what's the sedative then for the market? >> yeah. >> because earnings are done. the fed is now done for this part. i guess it's the economic data. >> it is. it is. >> can we be -- >> what else is there? >> can we be somewhat confident that we are in the decelera

mike santoli. the key earnings set up this week.♪ ♪ >>> all right. we're back. some earnings coming up this week. cisco is out after the bell. sarat, you own it. >> i think it's how sht prize customers will be spending money and they'll have a view on the global spending especially given what's happened in the last few weeks and any indication of anything positive will be good for the stock and for the sector. >> joe, cisco, as well. >> it's all about ai infrastructure. we need to understand what, in fact, the orderses have been so far in 2023. estimates for half a billion dollars and we'll see if it meets that. >> the stock is only up 10% year to date. >> yeah. >> slow and steady. >> palo alto also. >> that's where i get a little bitmore excited than cisco. palo alto is not reporting friday afternoon so maybe that's encouraging. idiosyncratic was the story as it relates to fortinet. forget that, that has not happened with palo alto, and enterprise is the story andal on alto are the leaders there and those are the two names in cyber

that's mike santoli. >>> up next tracking the trades.rom berkshire hathaway we'll tell you what else they're doing in omaha next. >> announcer: are you following "the halftime report" podcast? what are you waiting for look for us in your favorite podcasting app follow now [alarm clock ringing] (♪♪) [van engine] (♪♪) [card reader chimes] (♪♪) [inaudible chatter] [kitchen bell dings] [inaudible chatter] [keyboard clicking] (♪♪) [card reader chimes] (♪♪) >>> berkshire's 13-f hit and we wanted to give you the highlights they sold general motors, procter & gamble, u.p.s., you own berkshire. but gm >> if i had to guess looking at the labor negotiations and saying he doesn't want any part of it. he played in the airlines, 20 or 30 years ago, and he remembered how that went. maybe there's some rationality as we see the uaw failed to ratify the contracts that have been negotiated. they are buying back shares. i'm going to stick with it i think i understand why mr. buffett sold it. >> the other point i want to make contrary to what up said earlier

gold bond. >>> welcome back mike santoli, our senior markets commentator is here for his "midday wordern front it all builds to nvidia after the bell >> sort of sleeping it off i went back and looked at the other earning dates for nvidia this year, only the may report, may 24th, that really charged the market and got everybody rushing to kind of get their hands on some of this exposure the other ones in august was mid bounce and contributed to that bounce i wouldn't necessarily say it's going to be the thing that matters for the market, but it will give a little bit of information about where we are in the recycle, because we're rebuilding, it seems to me if you see financial conditions have loosened up a little bit, the technical tenor of the market has improved. you've gotten above some resistance areas it seems we bought ourselves some kind of dip buying habits for the next little while here until something changes. so we should cool off a little bit here it wouldn't surprise me. it doesn't seem if you look at things like the devalue, they bounced, they're back in the range they've

mike santoli joins us at the desk for his midday word., the russell is giving back. what do you make of this? >> doing just puff foenough forp to hang in there. since the rally started at the end of october, no day has seen an intraday low as low as the prior day's low. so we are continuing to hold in there okay. but unstable, you were talking about the media stocks getting taken apart. if you look at things like the reaction to robin hood and data dog, and that whole class of 2021, those companies that are still out there, or the ev space or solar, it shows you that things that are not already presumed to be reliable and macro, kind of insulated, are getting hit. so i this i that i understand why people have low conviction, high beta stuff is not really ripping off the low. it's kind of doing just okay. so it has plenty to prove, but 42 4275 on the s&p doesn't change much. that's where we finished september. so to scale what remains a routine pullback or something more. >> at what point does falling oil become a problem where gas prices

. >>> we'll start with the broader market which had investors navigating what mike santoli has called a confusing macro maze. there are things to worry about with bond yields, the fed, the broader economy. it seems to change day to day. let's bring mike in to guide us through the maze. >> jon, i consider it a maze because we keep running around and across the same levels. the index is reacting to the same feedback loops. we're at 4400 on the s&p. we got here five months ago. we traded at this level every month since. we know why. the economy's been much stronger than expected five months ago. yields have gone up. we had to kind of digest higher for longer fed. that in itself undermines expectations that the economy itself can continue to grow. how do we get out of this? are there any ways we can see past this dynamic? i would say the fact that we've kind of had a modest earnings recession and now 12-month forward earning estimates are walking higher again, that's one box you can check off, at least for now. yes, it's very uneven, yes, mostly the hugest stocks driving that earnings gro

mike santoli, please stick around because we want to look at what cfos are saying in economy in the rightvey of the cnbc cfo council 50. 50% said they expect the u.s. economy to enter recession some time next year. 60% think the fed has done a good or excellent job of fighting inflation. to that point, 93% of respondents say that inflation has actually peaked. they're declaring victory. joining us now to break this all down is brian jacobson, the chief economist with annex wealth management and mike santoli will stick around. brian, you heard the setup from mike about what we are kind of seeing what the machinations are, at least in recent times. do you feel as though we can declare victory over inflation? history is riddled, markets or otherwise, with people who have come early to that conclusion. >> yeah. thanks for having me. i do think we can declare victory over inflation, but there are going to be costs to that, as far as what's the collateral damage. and based upon the cnbc cfo survey i find it encouraging that a lot of cfos seem to be anticipating we're going to get a recession. i

mike santoli to break town the crucial moments of this trading day. on the sell-off in tesla shares today contessa brewer, win earnings, out in overtime. mike, this is about the auction today, right at 2:00 yields spiked. >> yeah. >> stocks went down. >> 1:00 option 2:00 powell. all of it created a little bit of a test, a jolt from the bond market we got the ten-year yield, 462 it's where it was four weeks ago. guess where the s&p 500 was four weeks ago? right here 43, something like that. never got, as we discussed, escape velocity on the rally waiting for that 4,400 ceiling to break then just unstable underneath. we talk about the negative, uneven market. we have still with the s&p though held friday's jobs day rally. so that one, you know, basically 4330 or so was the low this gap all the way down. i think we could get to the mid 4,200s and have it be a normal pull back. >> russell, we talked about it so many times this week. let's do it again. down 1.75%. >> i don't think it's telling us anything we don't know, which is the earnings growth path is

i'm mike santoli in for frank hol holland. it was a mixed day for the s&p which held at the 4,400 mark it held on to the 7% rally in the last couple weeks. this morning, we see modest gains. nasdaq is the out performer of the morning. the dow is up four points. boeing closed up 4% which was part of the dow's gains yesterday and accounting for the gains on the net basis historic day for chips nvidia capping off the longest daily win streak in seven years. that makes it up nine sessions in a row 20% u.s. on a month-to-date basis. >>> today is when home depot kicks off for the sector home depot, target and walmart and tjx trying to firm up ahead of the reports >>> checking the bond market the ten-year yield peaked a few weeks ago. now we are down a bit as we wait for the cpi reading. two-year note is hovering at 5%. >>> in energy, oil prices tried to get traction after the recent slide. they are pretty much hanging around below the $80 mark >>> let's see how europe is shaping up with julianna tatelbaum in the london newsroom juli

visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. >>> mike santoli joins us now. what are you thinking about today? >> really sort of continued benigned digestion of what we got last week. nothing to be excited about in terms of most of the market. you're pulling out of the majority of the stocks down again today. well within the zone, though. you can go down a couple three percent on the s&p and still be okay. and disinflation is the escape route for everything we've been worried about. so oil doing what it's doing, softening up wage growth, all that fits into this idea that whatever disaster we were braced for as been deferred if not canceled all together. >> yeah, it's interesting that all these counterintuitive things we were talking about, oil could easily go to $100 after what is going on in the middle east. now here we have a seven handle. nasdaq, tech trade looks down. eight days in a row. apple is back at $180. >> sure. >> $181 as a matter of fact today. it was what, $167 ten days ago? >> yeah. and mostly the reason it's worked out okay, or at least bette

welcome back senior markets commentator mike santoli joins us with his "midday word."ore this feels different >> somewhat different. we've only spent 20 or so days this year above 4500 on the s&p. obviously the all-time highs were almost a couple years ago now. it does show you that the disinflation was the absolute solve for most of what the market has been struggling you and i spoke near the close, and i think you said with the russell or the nasdaq 100 benefit more from a cool print and i think i punted but said the russell 2000 is much more tightly wound and you have that springback effect. a lot of the market was just not priced for a soft landing. all that together along with a 2% track for fourth quarter gdp, the vix under 15 again, you know you have the year end dynamics that's all to the good i do feel like now we have the chase, the squeeze two weeks ago. we'll see where it leads us. probably a now what moment ahead of us at some point. you don't want to declare victory on all fronts too early, but absolutely this is different. look for a 90% upside volume an

senior markets commentator mike santoli joining us now with his "midday word." what are you seeing?rtable feeling out there. when you have a 10% gain in the s&p 500, it feels like it's time to ask, is the market ignoring anything? are yields really going to cooperate? i think we're short of any point we have to worry about those things just yet. gdp is tracking 2%. you can fall away from there. supply driven declines in oil are pretty benign, if that's what we're seeing. the university of michigan consumer sentiment consume he ever expectations bumped up. the last time we were this high was 2008 and the problem in the next five years of disinflation. or deflation. >> you're talking about possible pitfalls coming up in the near future, maybe even next week. third quarter gdp revision, loretta mester and austan goolsbee will be speaking and thursday we haven't talked about it but pce. >> yes. pce will matter, i think. i don't think the fed officials are going to try to put december back on the calendar, you have to worry about a rate hike, but the market can't just assume it will be e

. >> mike santoli's "midday word" coming up next >> announcer: are you following "the halftime reportwaiting for look for us in your favorite llppasting a foow "the halftime" podcast now. do you consider climate risk? changing weather patterns are impacting the way we live and the value of businesses large and small. this can mean disruption to supply chains, changing demand for products and shifting regulation. what does this mean for your business, your clients, and your investments? ice offers data and markets that can provide critical insight. manage your climate risk with ice. [ "i'll be seeing you" by the five satins ] that can provide critica♪ ♪nsight. >>> we're back senior markets commentator mike santoli is at the desk with me now. if this is the week where you want to say, hey, it's broadening out, you have some good ammo. 3% for the s&p equal weight, 5% for the russell, and now the test is going to be whether it's sustainable. >> is it just kind of a force-in, combination squeeze and a chase for beta, or more sustainable? we were at such extremes you could still see the mea

mike santoli joining us now. nothing really doing much other than mega caps today?ly kind much as a hold as opposed to progress on the upside. that's probably okay. to me the big debate is, yeah, we are short-term, just a little stretched technically, but there has been a lot of repair to the overall trend, and the equal weighted s&p is up, and it's not a disaster like it was looking a while ago. nvidia, 5% off its high with the s&p less than 1% off the july high. it's a matter of whether we have to be bracing for another growth scare or yield scare, if any, and those two things are in a nice balance for now, and we will see if that changes. vicks under 13, and it's not that big of a deal and we will see if it rebuilds from here. >> volume is light. most targets at 5,000 here, and 55 in a perfect scenario? >> yeah, it's coming off of a year when the street was a little too negative for what the s&p did, so i don't see sentiment is getting over excited at all. that's in the ballpark of what you would see on the bullish end. i don't think everybody is hating the rally

i'm mike santoli in for frank holland. something of a quiet open. yesterday the s&p 500 did manage to tack on about 2/10 of a percent to the prior day's rally. leaves the s&p up about 10% from the lows of just about three weeks ago on the correction there with signs of cooling inflation being reinforced by the ppi number yesterday the dow at this point indicated basically flat the nasdaq was the outperformer. again, yesterday it is showing a little bit of weakness down 24 points at the open watching shares of target at the back of yesterday's post earnings rally, the stock jumping 18%, the best day in four years you see shares actually following through a little bit to the upside off about 2/2 of a percent. cisco shares plummeting on worse than expected guidance the stock down almost 11%, a little bit worse in the immediate aftermath of the report and the guidance after the close yesterday. we will have more on this and what cisco's ceo is saying coming up. >>> and checking the bond market, obviously been a big part of that story the pullback in yie

gold bond. >>> mike santoli joining us w, as you can see.ere on this final trading day of november? >> we continue to see, scott, effectively a made-to-order digestion of a big rally. yo i don't know if it can continue like this. we've gone nowhere in the big caps, but you see the rotation, we've been talking about it for a while. everyone is betting the field against the favorites. that's gone on for several days at this point. i do wonder how much of a defensive bid there is in the mega cap growtstocks. in other words, as people get more comrtable with the soft landing scenario, does that bit of the premium come out of that? i heard the confidence with br talking about the better earnings prospects long-term, but at least some of the outperformance to date has been become that group has been buff ed against the macro pressures and longer term disrupti. they seem to have all the cards. i wonder if they have to throw some of the table here. >> yeah. is the da has people, you where know, once again using the goldilocks word. >> it's hard to a

mike santoli >>> coming up, our calls of the day.r a stock up 25% this year we'll get the committee's take on it next ( ♪ ♪ ) ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo. ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ it's raising capital to help companies change the world. ♪ opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality. ♪ ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. [applause] sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity. >>> calls of the day let's start with costco. joel, we'll do that to you target raised, spite slowing inflation. they do not sound likely to raise the membership fee. >> they call it a core holding, exactly what it is for me in particular, with the quality and momentum it's been in the etf since inceptio

senior markets commentator mike santoli is at the desk, as you can clearly see.ut what's going on, right we were trying -- >> i'm always in that zone of trying to figure out what's going on, but yeah >> trying to get to 4400, going for the records, nine in a row in terms of the s&p, the longest in 18 years, 10 in a row for the nas. >> when it comes to these streaks, it's very much like sports where there's always luck or random factors, a flukiness you get these streaks. the really long streaks only happen when you're actually also good, right? it's not like terrible players have 25 game hitting streaks in the major leagues. it sort of shows you there's not a lot of motivated selling to knock the big stuff down, and at the end of these streaks, i have some data on this later, typically it's led to better returns in the next, let's say, couple of months, meaning it's not like the way the market sort of gets the last little bit out of the buying interest now that being said, what also is mostly going on is the market is resting after a pretty good sprint last week,

start for free at godaddy.com >>> mike santoli is at the desk for his "midday word."n year, we started to creep towards again on the waller comments. we're in the ballpark. >> 4.34, closing on the high in august. jeff degrf and others have been saying that's a spot if we have to get below that, it looks like a real breakdown and maybe clears the way for more relief. the waller comments were well received but that kind of was in the market, the sense the next move is lower, they're not necessarily going to have to wait for the economy to start to ease. the stock market has been on a sprint. you had a lot of people who had to buy to get exposure up and now give me a new reason it's just had a as we click to the july highs you see and tis persu anticipation. >> crowd strike is getting ready to report earnings in "overtime." shares are up 20%. josh owns it so we'll give you the setup next. at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their go

i'm mike santoli in for frank holland. let's kick off the hour with a check on u.s. stock futures. pretty dramatic day yesterday. s&p 500 up almost 2% on the day. bond yields much lower that was after a cpi report came in cooler than expected, zero gain in consumer prices month to month. bonds rallied, stocked rallied recovered most but not all of the decline from july. you see this morning -- that was yesterday let's move this morning you're seeing a little modest follow-through to the upside the dow had its third positive session in a row yesterday now, even bigger moves for the russell 2000 and the transports. these have been the hardest hit areas of the market, russell 2000 up more than 5%, its best performance since november of 2022 that was only -- a little over a year ago surging stocks matched only by a sharp drop in bond yields. that really was the catalyst for the entire move. the 10-year yield falling from about 460 down to 446. so under 4.5%. that also brings it back roughly to september levels. the rest of the curve following suit market effectively saying they believe

that's 1-800-217-3217. >>> mike santoli, our senior markets commentator, has joined the desk here wen we're going to make another run at this. >> it looks like it. the market making a bid to portray yesterday's action as a little shakeout. it was conspicuous how, i think, sensitive folks were to the stuff that wasn't working in the market even as the s&p went sideways for a few days. small caps delivered no faith whatsoever regional banks, the problem areas remained that way. but yields, you know, even after the 30 year auction yesterday, they never got above monday's highs. if you think about where we've been recently in that area so, yep, got to ride the big ones to see if you get through 3400 >> the yield thing is interesting because now we're parsing not only the words of the fed chair but his tone was more stern it takes the green space greenspan thing, what the words were versus the words on november 1st >> absolutely. >> really no different the tone sounded different >> there was no difference except there wasn't 50 minutes of q&a where he could offer a little more of a kind o

mike santoli, the s&p is trying to make a move back to 4400 and the futures above it as we speak. >>ou just get enough offense out of a few names to get the index continuing this positive streak. if it closes here this afternoon it's eli lilly getting a little bit of positive news, 4% up. by the way, lilly is a top, and it's amazing how big it is relative to what it used to be. >> yep. >> the rest of the market is trying to regroup and digest another day of negative breadth which is okay, and i guess if you were bullish you wouldn't necessarily want to see regional banks down 4% week to date as they are and it's coming off of a full squeeze higher next week and you take the good and the bad, in general, it is much more about just holding serve until there's another catalyst out there, and that's been -- that has absolutely been the case that the market is just doing enough in migrating toward the strength and the struggling parts of the market all year continue to be a little bit suspect in term of the source of upside, but make it work otherwise. >> the half empty view and the russe

let's bring in our cnbc senior markets commentator, mike santoli, where the momentum does continue for now, mike >> absolutely, carl. and i would say the first hurdle would be for market to basically absorb this sprint, without giving up too much of it, as it inevitably cool off it's about 10% in 13 trading sessions, which historically does not tend to mean you've exhausted the upside in other words, when you have one of those really persistent stretches of gains over a short period of time, usually, it's going to lead to somewhat upward bias down the road, even if you have to cut back remember, yesterday was the strongest day in the s&p since april 27th if you look back at the chart of that day, you did back, go sideways, and extended to new highs. the first thing is technical supply demand, making use of the seasonal tail winds and all the rest of it and then we've really kind of run out or used up a lot of the main things folks were worried about in the here and now. so clearly, the cooling inflation story, really defangs the fed from here on out and then on treasury yields, that's

mike santoli.en the potential for strong returns next year in bonds, our next guest is also overweight fixed income. but if you're looking for opportunities in equities, she says now is the time to get bullish on energy, tech, and some consumer discretionary. with us at post nine is wilmington trust head of investment strategy, megan chu. it's great to have you on set, megan. >> first off, talk about what you're seeing next year, fixed income versus stocks? >> yeah, well, i think that as we look at the landscape going forward, where we've moved to in yields, and certainly we've come off a little bit, but with the ten-year around 4.5%, we're looking at fairly attractive risk versus reward for bonds. rates could certainly move higher. it's hard to know where they go from here, but financial conditions are incredibly important, and the easing of financial conditions that we've seen is a little bit circular, because it could actually put the fed back in action. all of that withstanding, if you look at

let's bring in senior markets commentator, mike santoli. how are you reading into this move higher? >> still to be proven, but things are falling into place. you mentioned ten-year treasury yields coming down below 4.8. that's the level that i've been talking about for a week and a half that's acted as a floor. we clinched up in advance of this treasury announcement. the volatility index is a nice spike on the chart. i still think while we've broken this down very short-term, you still probably need another 1% on the s&p 500 to kind of get you out of that trough on the chart and clear another couple of hurdles. i do think, though, that it's very clear that the market has been pricing in a relatively steep fall off in economic growth in earnings. while the evidence is not quite there for it. so there's a dgap in there that can be filled in by a little bit of relief. obviously, the fed today, we'll see if they're really very assertive about saying that we need to run this economy way below trend for a long time before we give you a break on rates. but we've checked pack. the s&p 500 s

is the market at risk of rolling over again let's bring in our senior markets commentator mike santoli, who has not been really unnerved by yesterday's action, right? >> no. a little too early to say it was a complete head fake last week le weak parts of the market going in have rolled a bit and they still look weak we talk about small caps you look at the regional banks haven't necessarily said this is a trend change but point to point this week, you're flat on the s&p 500 done enough to digest the gains. there was the squeeze that hasn't yet been the chase. that's sometimes the sequence of these things going to withhold judgment we see the sensitivity of stocks to every little twitch in the bond market. i'm not that alarmed we had the little flurry of upside work in yields after that auction yesterday. didn't even get to monday's highs in the 10s and 30s in terms of yield we'll see if that means we're settling out or we have to be on alert constantly for any move. >> what do you attribute this to, short-term memory for investors in terms of where we're at and - >> yeah. i think the b

>> we can't wait kristina, thank you for setting us up for that back to mike santoli 90 seconds leftshow. stacy, top of the broadcast, said there is still a lot of material upside ahead. don't think they can't continue to raise. >> yeah. that is -- that's in the numbers, getting into the numbers. the sustainability question that stacy highlighted is the whole game really because if you -- i was looking at this, under 30 times, everyone talks how it is cheaper because earnings estimates are up so much if you look out three years, 2026, $25 a share is the estimate right now it is only 20 times earnings anticipated in that year that implies $60 billion of net income sales is 55 billion. it shows you they're supposed to earn on the bottom line in three years what they're taking in on the top line this year that's a massive trajectory. kudos if you can count on it that's why it matters so much exactly what the angle of the cent is in terms of sales and how long that pipeline is. >> that's what the whole game has been about, making a massive bet on the future and hoping that these companie

let me ask you a question similar to the one i asked mike santoli. that is what is the relationship between yields and tech shares or yields and the nasdaq? we've seen the nasdaq go up as yields went up. now it has they come down. >> what we're saying there is when you look at technology, it's trading at a much bigger premium, bigger multiple, than the average company at this point. what that means is that the value of those technologies, that technology sector, the share price if you will, it's tied up in earnings that are going to happen years and years from now. so those earnings are going to be hurt if you raise the interest rate and discount those back. they're going to behave sensitive to higher interest rate. there's a big but here. it's not the only thing that affects technology. for example, there are also going to be big beneficiaries of receding fears about recession. that's what happened this carca year. if you look at tech earnings, they've ratcheted up about 14% this cayear and you can't say tt for the rest of the s&p. ultimately, yes,

let's bring in commentator mike santoli to talk about, mike, we thought the print might be a little bithe reformulations of things like health insurance. >> absolutely, carl. the degree of market reaction shows you that was the way that folks were leaning to some degree and, you know, the bond market has essentially had i've seen enough moments and will ing to price out fed rate hikes all together that could change and we could overshoot, but steve liesman noted we have zero product priced in the fed funds future for any additional hikes by the fed. we have the december meeting that's been left live, but we thought coming in theywanted t be done and they thought they had the conditions under which they could be finished at this point and it was a matter of what was priced into equity markets as well, and you're seeing, of course, the laggard groups, the stuff that was not pricing in a soft landing scenario has bounced the most. unwind of that trade where people were seeking safety in mega cap growth, people have been kind of awing over the washed out russell 2000 chart. we got the s&p b

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. this make-or-break hour begins with a celebration under way on wall street. the s&p 500 climbing to close to the 2021 high. the nasdaq 100 outperforming on the day despite a slight dip in nvidia shares. the ten-year treasury yield steady, just above a two-month low. a hot inflation expectation number. the bond market is taking it in stride. it our "talk of the tape." after gaining more than 10% in under four weeks, is this stock market rally getting overcooked or can the market feed off soft landing hopes and positive seasonal patterns? let's ask bryn talkington, managing partner of requisite capital management and cnbc contributor. bryn, it's great to have you here. the market seems in a pretty comfortable mode here. i guess the question is, are we getting overbought? will something come along to disturb things? it seems gdp is tracking okay. we have the holiday week trading which has an upward bias. >> mike, we sure have had a big santa claus rally well before santa claus is even co

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. a celebration under way on wall street. the s&p 500 climbing to close to the 2021 high. the nasdaq 100 outperforming on the day despite a slight dip in nvidia shares. the ten-year treasury yield steady, just above a two-month low. a hot inflatio

let's bring in commentator mike santoli. are we getting a consensus? i would say not yet. it's 10% up from here. usually you'll find a clustering of projections probably in the high to single digits. that's sort of what you pencil in, i guess, generically. still a couple of firms, morgan stanley and goldman sachs. so people are starting to warm to the idea that we have seen an inflection point that's going higher, you have to argue the valuation on top of that, so i also would like to point out, it's 10% up from here, if we were to close at 5,000, in terms of ground covered and lost years -- >> in other words, it's not that bold of a call. >> -- it's not ter plaribly aggressive, but it would feel as if you had an upside run, some relief. you were getting escape velocity as opposed to treading over the same ground. >> we continue to watch the trend line on the ten year, a lot of discussion of testing for again. does that seem reasonable? >> it seems -- obviously things have to break correctly. you have something like the university of michigan number and a slight tick lower

. >>> we have mike santoli who will join us with his "midday word." >> announcer: are you following " are you looking for? look for us in youfarir vote podcasting app. follow now. >>> welcome back to "halftime." mike, it looks like the dow is close to its session highs. >> came back from a mild pullback after the opening strength and, frank, to me the real theme of today everybody for months has wanted the market to broaden out. the huge winners at the top of the nasdaq. this is what that looks like. not just on the index level where you have laggards, bank stocks, things that got pounded this year and pullbacks in things like meta and microsoft and lily. even within the sector, the igv, microsoft makes up 10% of this etf. it is up 2% or so. that tells you that people are trying to move money out. to me the big questionis, can this kind of a shift continue and remain painless and sort of allow the market to escape even a routine pullback after the sprint we had higher toward the july high? to me that's the current test of the market as bonds rally and allow this whole process to happe

mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of this day.n one year since bob iger returned to disney what's still at take and bertha coombs. >>> michael, apple at 191, nvidia at 503, up 100 bucks in, like, two weeks. it reports earnings tomorrow >> all is well again in some sense, or at least familiar. we were here -- i always do this, but we were here in july, and it was a similar thing we had just broken higher out of the kind of resistance area. you had a correction you entered into this kind of grind because people felt they weren't fully exposed to the market what were we worried about in july that caused correction? yield to the upside, the fed would be more tough love, oil was a problem. even seasonally we had some challenges a lot of that has been answered in a benign way. it gets us to here seasonal tailwinds, earnings higher, all that other stuff that keeps sellers at bay. it's question of the short term, a lot of gaps on this chart. the market was dragging coming into this week we'll see. >> julia, one year feels like a lot longe

our senior markets commentator mike santoli joins us for his "midday word." what are you thinking? decent news for both yields and stocks earlier today. >> we did. at least the absence of anticipated negative news, i guess that qualifies as good news in this tape. market is still very much in the prove-it zone. we talked near the close last night, scott, about how we broke this short-term downtrend. we did have broadening out. laggard groups did get some relief. if all we're doing is working off the oversold levels and getting put up on the tee to get smacked again, that's the question. another percent and a half higher on the s&p 500, probably is a hurdle to prove this could be a decent low for now. i do think it's going to be about whether powell decides he really wants to work to put that december meeting more live, make it more live, more like they still seem vigilant as opposed to the predominant feeling being the fed finished in july. >> as we showed at the top of our program with steve liesman, 21% chance in december, 28 for january, so the market has all but priced this out

mike santoli to break down the crucial moments of the trading day, plus courtney reagan on weakness andl stocks. phil lebeau looking ahead to fi fisker's report. mike, very much wait and see. all eyes and minds are on the cpi for tomorrow morning. >> no question about that. everything is idling here. you look at the strategists' outlooks filtering through. i can see why there's not a tremendous amount of conviction. in a weird way bulls and bearing -- i know you've been having this debate all hour -- could declare victory. if you're a bear and say, look, we never really got out of the muck, you can look at the average stog doing nothing, and actually most of the economic areas of the market are sending a bit of a tough macro message saying, look, a quarter of the s&ps are keeping pace. if you're bullish, you say, look, we're sort of sideways for two years, the economy is bigger. we don't have a recession yet. if we don't have a recession, we should be able to keep it up and have a catch-up trade for the rest. i'm on board with that being the way you set out the probabilities for 2024. >

should they be concerned about another peak in tech let's bring in senior markets commentator mike santoli we have chopped a lot of wood here, mike. >> no doubt. made a lot of progress in a short period of time it's logical to say, could use a breather obviously, can't continue higher at this pace i don't see the nasdaq 100 type stocks as being all that stretched to the upside relative to where they were, let's say, in june and july even before that in early february we had a pretty major peak february 2nd with this big rush higher in big tech as well as low quality stocks to start the year so makes sense something always comes along there's going to be a rethink of exactly how much upside there is -- even though the s&p is at a logical level to hit friction. you have the other side of the trade which is not just the seasonal effects but the dynamics of wanting to stay participated in a market that has cleared some hurdles do you want to book your profits in the stocks up the most at the end of the year? >> mike, i'm curious if you've got thoughts about important closing levels on the ten-

mike santoli will break down the latest trades.oorstin is following the rally in roku shares today michael, we're digesting after thanksgiving still >> we are. markets are acting as if it's in a pretty comfortable spot at these levels obviously, short term, you can make the case that a four-week sprint higher has gotten it a little stretched but in general, yields, 10-year below 4.4, all the things we were worried about, real scares, the regional bank crisis, then six months late we are the yield meltdown you needed them to sort of test whether or not you can rebuild confidence in a soft-landing scenario we more or less got there. you've been talking about the strategists' outlook for 2024. nobody is outright fighting the market as much as they were a year ago because that certainty about a coming recession is definitely diluted by now the market has behaved there's another moment coming. you won't get lib rated from the sensibility out there. you can kind of enjoy it where we are, seasonals, all the rest of it, kind of carry the d

geopolitical risks and further volatility >> let's get back to the broader markets, check in with mike santoli this morning? >> good morning, melissa the s&p 500 continuing to idle in place here, as it did yesterday, basically a flat performance from the benchmark but that means it's held on to this 7.3% gain over the last couple of weeks. off that late october low. here's where it sits, just nosing above this 100-day average, so there's some technical progress that's happened here. broke above that line from late july shows that there's forward motion here on the market-cap weighted s&p 500 a lot of quibbling about what it means that the average stock has been lagging so much but for most folks, invested according to the index things look okay for now we'll see reaction to bonds or the cpi. take a look at the global picture. a lot of talk about this meeting, biden and xi. this is the two years of the u.s. market total stock market index, emerging markets excluding china. and then china indexes so, you see massive underperformance, also a series of these kind of false starts, lower lows and al

the question is how much more room is there to rally because we're -- if mike santoli were here, we've seen quite a runup since the fed decision of 8% on the s&p and we're within 2% away from an all-time high -- two-week high. >> nasdaq 100 hitting two-month high record highs in a bunch of well-known names not just chipotle, hilton, but microsoft and nvidia that's why some would argue nvidia is going into this print a little bit hot. >> which is why it's still a little lopsided market where the big cap tech and nasdaq are doing so much better than the rest we look for signs of broadening out in the rally we're seeing some of it. transports have been acting as a cyclical tell as a group utilities have been acting worse. a lot of people looking at that relationship even right now with the selloff, materials, health care and financials are all green despite inflation easing, consumers are still seeing higher prices from before the pandemic the most recent nbc news poll shows only 38% of registered voters approve of president biden's handling of the economy. joining us live from the white

i'm sara eisen with mike santoli. northwestern mutual cio on why he's skeptical of the current rally and says to brace for a hard landing. >>> the chairman of ubs warning of growing risk in the credit market. there is an asset bubble forming there. he joins us to explain. >>> plus, we'll get to an upgrade of boeing and why rbc says it still has room to run, despite a 20% hike the past month. >>> markets have recovered early losses. dow up 114. bond yields declining just a little bit. the market digesting quite a bit of fed speak this morning. fed governor bowman saying she would be willing to support raising the funds rate at a future meeting if inflation progress stalls while fed governor waller says he's encouraged by recent data but not ready to call it a victory. listen to what he had to say. >> i am encouraged by the early signs of moderating economic activity in the fourth quarter based on the data in hand. inflation is still too high. and it is too early to say whether the slowing we're seeing will be sustained

mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. ll leadership shakeup at openai mike, we'll find out real quick whether this was a telling week for the market the broadening out s&p equal weight which you talked about for more than a year now and the real place to look for the underlying strength in the market and thereof. >> massively outperformed last year, massively underperformed this year. and around the flat line year to date in terms of the s&p, it's interesting how it's dealt with the dig one-day pop off the cpi. the closes, 4502, 4508, 4512 holding the gains, going sideways and allowing the mass of stocks to catch up to the few leaders. that's probably bullish if that's how it goes to me, the big question is, is it over its skis yet technically getting overbought, but not terribly, not compared to july. is it ignoring some kind of bad economic news? it doesn't seem like it. >> doesn't feel like it. >> all of it working together is relatively reassuring, i would say. and anything could come along. for now, it seems like a wi

markets commentator mike santoli to break down the crucial moments of the trading day plus kristina partsinevelosr when nxp reports its earnings in "overtime" coming off the best week of the year as we said, only give back is the russell but that's been up so strong you're due for something there. >> mild cooling off, profit taking, russell we mentioned up 7.5%, down today. two stocks are down for every one up today. you are still seeing that typical uneven type performance. nothing really to be concerned about in the moment. do say that it didn't take much for the 10-year yield from 4.50 to 4.65 today. no real news. there has been a lot of corporate bond issuance today. monday after a fed meeting off the case. so $20 billion or so hitting the market absorbed nicely by the corporate market. on the other hand sometimes it's treasuries. if that's reason we can deal with that. have stocks get their feet back under them. you're in the zone of saying even if you expect a fourth quarter rally how fruitful is it going to be? the average fourth quarter return on the sundar p&p is 4% >> who has more to pr

i'm mike santoli. this make or break hour begins with stocks trying to execute an immaculate rotation. the biggest megacap winners. lacking groups such as banks and small caps and the broadening action that so many investors have been waiting and hoping for. the nasdaq 100 basically flat. a bit more strength underneath the equal weighted s&p off about a half a percent today. we begin with our talk of the tape. economic growth revised higher last quarter this morning alongside prices easing and treasury yields breaking to a three-month low, are we back to pricing in a soft economic landing as the base case? greg and kristina, great to have you here. thanks for coming by. greg, i know you are going to have a leblittle bit to argue he market is seeing things. this last leg higher in stocks, started with the cpi report november 14, kicked us higher, got ten-year treasury yields below 4-6, now under 4-3. it seems as if the fed is done and yet the economy holding up. what's wrong with is that? >> the fed is

. >> let's bring in cnbc's senior markets commentator, mike santoli. i think the key was yesterday, hearing from waller who's a governor sort of blessing the market's view that inflation is coming down, and if it continues to move towards target, we can cut next year. barkin walking it back a little bit, but he's not a voter. >> and it's to be expected that fed officials will not fully come out and say, here's the road map to rate cuts. what the market does realize is, if july was the last cut, the lanch -- or the last hike, the average time to the first cut, historically, is like six or eight months. you're almost there. french quarter gets you there. you've had very long stretches beyond that. the point is, the market will not sit here and say, hold indefinitely. if we think we have downside momentum in inflation and the fed is acknowledging that they don't have to be at the target before they cut, and that the economy doesn't have to be in stress before they cut, then you can triangulate it to say, fine, the two-year should not be above 5%. beyond t

let's bring in mike santoli. i'm surprised if you were how overt they were about the possibility of deflation >> a little bit. i also feel like that's walmart's general orientation, how can we be a leader on price, and they're not going to get outcompeted so, therefore, they will turn more quickly than other retailers. i do think it comes at a moment, as you say, we got beyond our anxiety about inflation and what that's going to mean for too high yields and an active fed. then investors turn to the other man diet, which is worrying about growth sputtering and yields going down for the wrong reasons and what the fed might do next about it i think that's the moment we find ourselves in in a market that was a little bit stretched and overheat coming into today probably needed a breather, but it's happening, definitely, with those catalysts. also oil breaking down and there's sense out there that we're kind of wondering about exactly how much consumer fatigue there is out there, continuing jobless claims rising, all

i'm mike santoli.s trying to execute an immaculate rotation. the biggest megacap winners. lacking groups such as banks and small caps and the broadening action that so many investors have been waiting and hoping for. the nasdaq 100 basically flat. a bit more strength underneath the equal weighted s&p off about a half a percent

mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day and two outperforming groupss like nvidia has done exceptionally well this week mike, i turn to you. one heck of a move having late day. 13,8100 on the nose on the nasdaq and close above 4400 on the s&p. >> we will and also close back just a little bit above that, a couple of other targets we had insight, which was the 100-day average and also from september 20, keep saying highest levels since september. september 20th, we kind of fell off the cliff. that was the september fed meeting day, higher for longer was pushed in everyone's face and we got the new dot plot and rates the next day, the 10-year went from 437 to 448 big move stocks down. we've been dealing with that kind of dynamic ever since i do think it is worth emphasizing, we are higher now, on the s&p, than we were when the 10-year treasury was under 4-4. so it is not a tick for tick move most of this week has been kind of digesting and waiting and resting and letting some of the less advantaged parts of the market pull back a little bit. i feel like t

mike santoli is with us to break down the important parts of the trading day. your thoughts? >> we spoke middle of the day, scott, about the question on powell's press conference was is he going to be really strident about trying to put another hike in people's minds for december and also very assertive about saying that we really have to wrestle economic growth to the ground to take care of inflation. he sidestepped every opportunity to be very dogmatic about either of those points. so, december, they want to be done, they think they can be done, they can't say they're done, but he all but said let's wait and see and patience is a virtue at this level. that's fine. sort of the third thing this week all these anticipated events that maybe the market was seeing as hazards that came out in a benign fashion. both the treasury announcements, so far, as well as this one. so, yields, finally down below 4.8 on the ten-year, that's a big deal, never got below that last week. we'll see if it does continue into a genuine breakdown in yields. and then the stock market was already findin