let's get down to mike santoli at the new york stock exchange. up where they left off and also with extra steam. >> picking up where they left off last week with dramatic rotation into areas of the market that have not worked principally for the past few months. that would besmaller stocks, average stock on the s&p 500, more cyclicals and financials. the index are off their highs. intraday records earlier today. you still see that pronounced relative performance. there's the russell 2000 small cap relative to the s&p 500 over the last five days. so, if you really went down the line, investors in the last several days have gained conviction on several things. obviously, inflation seems to be more persistent in a downturn, therefore more conviction the fed can ease. after this weekend and given what's going on in terms of the election probabilities, maybe a more secure view in terms of the policy outlook. all of that getting priced in. i do think the big question is, the tactical setup, not so much the big picture, we do have earnings season coming

on that note, let's bring in mike santoli., is the biggest obstacle to a strong back half just these sky-high expectations? >> yeah, kelly. i think at least when it comes to earnings forecasts, the expectations have been ratcheted pretty high. it's a pretty daunting hurdle, flo at least from the out. 9% second quarter, aggregate s&p earnings growth. that has not come down over the course of the past three months. it seems as if analysts got the memo that companies have been beating by 3 to 5 percentage points in aggregate per quarter, so they haven't actually cut to lower the bar. that's one thing. i think the treasury yield move is another that we have to be keeping our eye on, as the market seems to be doing, today, especially considering that this lift in treasury yields coming after some soft inflation numbers, and also economic data that's been a little bit deceleration mode, i would say. beyond that, though, the upper trend is quite strong. even the average stock is not down. i mean, i think you could definitely talk abo

let's bring in mike santoli. small caps overtaking mega caps at least for a few days, mike. >> yeah, jon. it's almost as if the laggard parts of the market tried to get all that underperformance back in one big bite. it probably isn't going to be as smooth as today's action shows. obviously mentioned that the big aggressive selling in semiconductors on some news and broader mega cap tech have been crowded. it's been unwinding. the rest of the market today can't really quite absorb that with an offset of buying that's mostly because of the run we've already seen in small caps. the majority of large caps as well. today two stocks down across the market for every one that's higher. so that's profit-taking in small caps. one area that's still pretty consistently green right now is financials. so bank stocks, both regionals, the broad sifi banks as well as broad financials, that's where the backdrop of a soft landing and fed cutting rates and maybe lighter regulation seems like has more traction as opposed to the quiks

mike santoli, great to have you on the desk, actually. morning that you're keeping an eye on? >> i do think it's the move in the bond market. ten-year treasury is at a four-week high. equity futures gain has been a little bit getmitigated. plus, of course, where is nvidia going to open? it's the eternal question. it looks flattish at the moment. >> and here it is. come on. the opening bell here. take a look. at the big board, toga. at the nasdaq, breakthrough t1d, a type i diabetes advocacy organization does the honors. more green on the board as you see at our realtime exchange, and as mike said, nvidia opening more or less flat. >> yeah. >> right now. >> it's still in this mode of, like, we put in this really aggressive piece a couple weeks ago. all the momentum stocks had a sharp little pullback. last week, assort of a weak bounce, and i compare it to what we saw back in march, a kind of rush higher in nvidia that had a crescendo, and the rest of the market had to do what it could to keep things together. morgan stanley trading desk th

let's bring in mike santoli. can we have kum-bi-ya? >> you know, tyler, certainly we can. the prospect remains out there. i think that's what we're seeing today, by the way, nvidia up 3% and apple is up a couple of percent. it doesn't seem like a totally changed character of this market. maybe one that is a little less narrow and slightly less reliant and stretched in the direction of those very largest names, which are not only big and popular and crowded and heavily owned but also defensive when people are fearing the macro. i guess there's another option out there which was not just mentioned. maybe it's time we get more of a pullback or cooling offer in the indexes, which doesn't hit the smaller stocks as hard because they haven't been up as much or maybe not as extended. all of those things are in the mix. i think we can absolutely say there's more room for this reversion to the mean to go on for a bit. we're not even close to the highs on the russell 2000 of 2021. you probably have to go up 10% to get there from here, even though the s&p has been making 40 new highs

mike santoli here to break down crucial moments of the trading day. peeples on health care and the rebound on cruise stocks. mike, up first with you. let's look we'll get another high for the s&p and dow. >> getting it done today. we have a fairly experiences ive, well loved market rally. not to say it can't keep feeling higher but it has to pull these tricks to stay elevated. intel up 6%. chipotle down 6%. that's pure anti-momentum, we're going to unwind the stuff that's run a lot, up 30% year-to-date like chipotle and pick up the stuff that's down 30% like intel. i don't know if there's that much intention around it but it shows there's money in the market and s&p and powell and soft landing and all the things we're hoping for. i do feel the positioning is kind of predicated on thevings going right. you have to respect the market action but it's trying to draw strength from areas maybe you can't count on in a persistent way. >> angelica, talk to us about the stocks you're watching in the health care space. >> yeah, scott, shares of morphic are up 75

i'm sara eisen with mike sa santoli.the inflation report and why he says the tech selloff could be as much about the japanese yen as it is about earnings. singing my tunes. >>> plus, a more stable a.i. play for volatile times. why raymond james is raising its apple price target. that analyst is with us in a moment. >>> imax surging

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. this begins with the giants of the nasdaq stumbling, sending tremors through the rest of the tape. another weak tesla quarter, from alphabet, taking its on the staying power, tax the nasdaq done more than 3% for the worst day thisd the game tried to withstand. here's your scorecard. taking notice, with the flirting april left. a pullback back in april. that takes us to our talk of the tape. liz ann saunders will be, tesla and the semis, on tracking for all of that. and we begin with steve on alphabet. slowing ad growth, and more spending. on the add growth front, it was up 11%, but slower than last quarter. alphabet will continue to spend while cutting expenses outside of ai. the ceo said he would rather over-spend. that injected some more uncertainly. even less details on ai search, which just launched a couple months ago. no details to show that it can search than vertical already do. and the questioning around cap ex, and expect that theme to continue, mike, next week when cloud le

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. we begin with the gears grinding a bit in the great rho trace trade, a thorough shakeouts on semis, and as meeting profit taking in the whitehot small caps. here's your scorecard with 6 on minutes to go. it's dipped back below 5600. the nat cause -- the dow is actually up about half a percent, thanks mainly to gains from unitedhealth and j & j. and the vix reflecting some of this choppier take, rising to a three-month high, basically matching the highs of may. that takes us to our talk of the tape. where does it leave the soft landing trade. let's bring in lauren goodwin. keith lerner, and peter chacinni. lauren, it's actually refreshling with the stony lines. soft landing, on top of a maybe a trump trade. has it caused you to rethink where you want to be positioned? >> only on a tactical basis. this is a market, a fed pivot market two, three months before we expect a cut exactly as we would expect to see it. a lot of uplift in areas like small caps, where capital is unlocking. the re

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. begins whip the hardest hit month of the market and a spin of rotation trade into small caps and financials. a short morning flushed lower then deep in the correction of big tech seemed to exhaust selling for the moment. action remains unsettled with the s&p 500 back to a flat line after 1% gain. and 60 minutes in regulation, look at the s&p 500. up to a six-week low touched just after the close this

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner this make-or-break hour is on the keeping -- the down side, the index is accelerating into the final hour after a tentative midday rebound attempt here's your scorecard. s&p 500 near the morning lows, actually traded positive for a bit, but notice 0.8% under 5550. nasdaq down not quite as much, 0.9%, yes basically in a 5% setback from the nasdaq's all-time peak. it's cool off at a five-day rip, down about 3.5% from just a couple days ago. that takes us to the "talk of the tape." is this just a midsummer squall, or is a more threatening change in the market weather underway here is jersey terranova, as well as brian belski, and alicia le levine joe, extended periods of market followed by some action, turbulence we have that here. what is the message you read you have done a great job talking about how q3 could be bumpy, and that seems to be what we're getting right now, for viewer, long-term investor, this is a tough environment right now. it looks like we're getting this roe station within the market. early this morning it and as that would contin

let's get to mike santoli who is at the new york stock exchange. >> most important at record highs.y and wednesday. the rest of the market kind of turning in place what this shows. s&p 500 up 24.5% over 12-month basis. you see up 9.5% and nothing wrong with that but it shows it hasn't done much for a few months here area holding in place with the gains and running around 9% annualized gain for the current calendar year. it doesn't look like much next to the gross stock led megacap dominated s&p 500 but still hanging in there. on the consumer side, consumer discretionary a similar story that is the consumer discretionary sector. this is the other version of. . you see they diverged. amazon and tesla 40% of the market cap basket. the rest of discretionary consumer [ inaudible ] softening up a sign of slowing in the economy and saw that in a bunch of the numbers last week. one of the reasons that the jobs number in focus -- look at the payroll process. speaking of the labor market. adp and paychecks five-year chart and amazingly stable and kind of shows you we have been sort of steady

s&p 500 call that bunch, but we want to get down to the stock exchange where mike santoli is standingm. >> absolutely. yesterday market kind of woke up you know, after a couple of weeks of calm sideways movement on the surface. it was the first day yesterday, actually that the s&p 500 moved half a percent in two weeks. it was up .6%. you can see that flattening out before yesterday. kind of remarkable. we've assumed more or less a similar angle of assent from the october lows just after that april pull back. now a lot of people will kind of criticize and they want to essentially say that this is not a true reflection of what's going on in the market because it remains top heavy. yesterday was a broader rally. since this point right there, the median stock in the s&p is down 1%. if you own the big cap stocks you're okay, everything else is going sideways. look at the more cyclical indicators for a lot of the rally you've been able to say and i've been able to say, pointing out things like home builders be industrials, they're participating in uptrends. they are but they lost altitude h

back to mike santoli. we're about to have the one-minute warning.e the market is making full use of the seasonal strength in the first part of july. i definitely feel as if the index has reach a bit of an extreme. it doesn't mean -- the most uneasy with the character of this market making any highs than otherwise you would not things probably should be be expected to work -- you obviously have things like earnings season and, of course, the election starts to come into the equation. i'm not saying we're running out of up side, but it seems -- >> we have a new closing high for both of s&p and nasdaq. things will settle out, but it currently looks that way. we'll see you tomorrow. >>> well, another record close for the nasdaq, let in part by tesla and nvidia. plenty of action under the surface. tesla is extending its streak to ten days. the action, though is getting started. welcome to "overtime." >> well will talk to t

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner today. it is make or break hour.his time, the gains are not coming directly at the expense of banks, small caps, and other cyclicals, which are all higher on the day. here's a look at the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. s&p 500 up a full percent, basically just above friday's highs. the nasdaq, big outperformer up 1.5%. russell 2000 actually has been gathering some steam throughout most of th

i'm mike santoli.s with an unsettled market, chopping lower to finish out a week of erratic. the s&p 500 on pace for a weekly loss of almost 2%. it would be its worse in about three months, though it remains 3% off its recent record highs. the equal weighted version of the s&p is

markets reporter mike santoli said what a donald trump portfolio could look like as they price in anr increasing likelihood of a trump presidency. >> the banks looking at the center of what would be a trump portfolio, if you put it that way, based on regulation that would be perhaps a little bit less onerous. this is essentially the rotation in the markets due to the decline in u.s. inflation and increased expectations for federal reserve rate cut over the next come muple of months. that is the way the markets have been rotate away from last week and move into more cyclical and smaller cap and financial stocks. >>> the shooting of former president trump will loom heavily over the republican national convention which begins today in milwaukee, wisconsin. officials say the convention where trump is set to become the republican nominee for the third time will go ahead and planned. trump posted on truth social platform that he originally planned to delay the appearance by two days, but he could not allow the shooter to force change. we have brie jackson now from milwaukee. brie, you can

i'm mike santoli if nfor scott wapner. mobilizing to finish out a bumpy week on wall street.inued flow into financials and smaller stocks after a largely as expected inflation reading keeps fed rate cut expectations for september pretty well in place. here's our scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. s&p 500 up about 1% now making a built of a stand after a 5% setback from peak to the low

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. of the tape. another weak tesla quarter, from alphabet, taking its on the staying power, tax the nasdaq done more than 3% for the worst da

mike santoli thank you as always. >> of course. >> for chipping in.p a close eye on the markets. the nasdaq hitting an intraday high, by the way. we're back after this. >>> good wednesday morning, welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with melissa lee and wilford frost. we're live at the new york stock exchange. let's look at the markets one half hour into trade. up on all the major averages and that's a new high for the nasdaq. >> we are 30 minutes into the trading session. the three movers we're watching. tesla is driving higher, coming off the best day since april and on the longest winning streak since july of last week and getting a number of price target hikes including dan ives raising to 275 with a bull case next year. we have more on the trade coming up. shares of paramount are soaring, sky dance has reached a preliminary agreement to buy national amusements, the controlling shareholder in paramount. more ahead on this on the show. and constellation giving up some of the gains after reporting mixed results. we'll

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. this make or break hour begins whip the hardest hit month of the market and a spin of rotation trade into small caps and financials. a short morning flushed lower then deep in the correction of big tech seemed to exhaust selling for the moment. action remains unsettled with the s&p 500 back to a flat line after 1% gain. and 60 minutes in regulation, look at the s&p 500. up to a six-week low touched just after the close this morning and up by 60 points now back to the flat line as we said. nasdaq composite struggling to find footing as well. just slid into the red again. semiconductor index got nearly to a 20% total decline from its record high before an early morning bounce pup see, still give or take around that flat line. small cap russell 2000, though, taking back most of wednesday's 2% drop. within about 2% of last week's high. continues to outperform. again, twitchy along with the rest of the market. volatility index surged to a three-month high this morning above 19. fever broke

mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. results plus the ones to watch for next week. seema mody with the price target hikes. michael, fading into the finish here but some of this week as you see it. >> just a lot to ask, i guess, to do a lot of buying at the highs at the end of the week. market's not making any missteps here in terms of big picture. 300 new 52-week highs in the new york stock exchange against new lows. it's pretty much let's empty the tank. i think this broadening trade. the greater participation is absolutely welcome. what it didn't do is change the fact of cooling off. a lot of two-way action when we do get it. nothing bad. it's more about how many times have you priced in this the soft landing in m the first rate cut? maybe not enough. maybe we've done it. >> you've got two sides to this. one part of the market looked really over bought. >> that's right. >> the other part looked over sold. >> this is why i've been saying if you want to say the market needs to correct, you have to say the index needs to

good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm david taiffaber with leslie pic and mike santoliwe're live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. you just had a look at futures. joe called it riveting. tend to agree. that's really very exciting right there. but our show will be exciting, unlike, perhaps, what the market looks like. >> you know, that's riveting, even if it's not moving much. >> if it's getting mike santoli excited, then you know you got something going on. let's get to our road map. it does begin with continued job market resilience, not slowing the tech stock rally. microsoft, amazon, and alphabet, all set to notch new highs at the open. >>> plus tesla has bounced back, shares rallying again on track for an eight-day win streak. it's the longest since june of last year. >>> and the labor landslide, the uk's opposition party winning a huge parliamentary majority in the country's general election unseating the conservatives after 14 years. >>> let's get to that june employment report. nonfarm payrolls rose by 206,000. that was ahead of forecasts. the combin

mike santoli here to bring down the closing moments of this trading day plus another record rally in ema modi and kate rooney with mastercard and visa. mike, we have a good rally. i characterize this as a rate cut rally. do you bant to take issue with any of that? nick timerose said this was in the midst of another pivot, perhaps even more dovish than we got last time. >> yes. i think that's the latest push in the direction of a bull market that's obeying all of the bull market rules. we do have this tacit acknowledgment we're within a couple of months within a 4 to 5% nominal gdp and auld of that is a nice backdrop in general leaving the soft landing, very plausible outcome. here's what we also know. great first half of the year usually means a positive second half. the up year is 20% plus. we're not there yet. first half of july is positive. chasing the best, meaning the highest quality companies. starting to have the others participate a little bit. my point is this is all feeding off of all of the positives inputs that were already in place. i could be persuaded that we're kind of

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner this make-or-break hour is on the keeping -- the down side, theter a tentative midday rebound attempt here's your scorecard. s&p 500 near the morning lows, actually traded positive for a bit, but notice

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner.ed parts of this market, that small cap, banks, transports all continuing their ferocious comeback, started about a week ago against the former mega cap leaders. take a look at the scorecard with 06 minutes to go in regulation. the s&p 500, participating up about 0.5% at a closing record right now. the intraday closing high, 566 for those who are superstitious.

senior markets commentator mike santoli is tracking the significance. this rises to the level of pretty significant, mike? >> i do. although whenever you see an extreme move like this, kelly, you have to consider what the initial conditions were. so one week ago, the russell 2,000 relative performance against the s&p 500 was at like a 22 or 23-year low. so you were at these complete washed out relative extremes, and therefore, a little bit of a snapback makes more sense. obviously, you have a lot of things pushing in that direction when it comes to expectations to the fed, the policy mix that we're recalibrating here. so, yes, i do see it as significant, although as you see in that chart, you're not even catching up on a one-year basis. even it's just reversion to the mean to last a little while, and you also had a very heavy short position in the russell 2,000. speculators were leaning against this part of the market. to me, it's a little bit of the flipside that it's been a narrow market, only five stocks. everything is concentrated. people were crowd

i'm mike santoli if nfor scott wapner. mobilizing to finish out a bumpy week on wall street. traction in hard-hit tech. continued flow into financials and smaller stocks after a largely as expected inflation reading keeps fed rate cut expectations for september pretty well in place. here's our scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. s&p 500 up about 1% now making a built of a stand after a 5% setback from peak to the lows this week. nasdaq composite kind of the center of this pullback. participating today, but still underperforming. up about 0.8 of 1%. russell 2000 has been the big beneficiary of this rotation that began about two-plus weeks ago. you see it here. up another 1.3%. k many vw index up a couple of weeks here. up 85 basis points today. looking to finish out a knew five week and treasury yield yielding a six-month low under 4.4% as though fed rate cut expect aces flow through the bond market. that takes us to "talk of the tape" has the two-week pullback reset expectations enough to refresh the rally, or will the water stay too choppy for comfort? hair to wei

mike santoli has the honors. >> yeah, kelly, broad market in levitation mode. s&p 500, crossing above the 5600 level for the first time. it's yet again ratifying that all bit of wall street wisdom, never short a dull market. the index has been dull the past two days. minimal moves, inkru mental new highs but resumed the same angle we had in the first quarter. so obviously up 17.5% on year-to-date basis. it's a very good year, acting like a bull market. however, the critique is it's been concentrated in those gains. if you look at the nasdaq 100, which has surmounted the 20,000 level as of last week, that's where most of the gains have been. you see since that april low, that pullback the broad market had, not a lot of progress. now, it's hovering, you know, above those levels. it's not necessarily breaking down, but to your point about the consumer, consumer and industrial stocks have stalled out. and yet, today there's a little bit more broad participation. everyone looking at the bond market. jay powell in his second day of testimony today, pretty much kind o

. >>> the other thing that mike santoli pointed out, if you look at chipotle, you can see the day that controversy about size. brian nickels said the prices have gone up but the size hasn't. a lot of people feel there's been, david, a controversy about whether the sizes have gotten smaller. >> i know. >> and i continue to believe other than the problem from chipotle for avocado when it comes to gawk, i think it's great company but i think there's an undercurrent with chipotle that i think is untrue. i think the company is being sha slaged unfairly. >> not the ceo. >> no, jack is retiring. >> till march. >> march next year. >> i wanted an excuse to have jack on. i love him, he's been terrific. during the really terrible airborne illness, i owned a restaurant, there by the grace of god, i said you will make a comeback, absolutely. what a buying opportunity that was in october of 2016. >> jim we'll see you tonight. >> i love you. all the animosity is strictly -- >> it's all for show. it's an act. >> it's a show, man. 100%. >> see you at 6:00. >>> when we come back, david's first on cnbc i

mike santoli. as we go to break, dow is down 180 here. check out treasurys.wo voters on deck today, bostic at 1:00, williams at 10:40. of course, the blackout window does begin on saturday for the fed speak, so we'll be without it for next week. right now, ten-year, highs of the session here, 4.24%. stay with us. [♪♪] your skin is ever-changing, take care of it with gold bond's healing formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins. for all your skins, gold bond. - custom ink helps us motivate our students with custom gear. formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins. we love how custom ink takes care of everything we need, so we can focus on the kids. - [narrator] custom ink has hundreds of products to help you feel connected. upload your logo or start your design today at customink.com while i am a paid actor, and this is not a real company, there is no way to fake how upwork can help your business. upwork is half the cost of our old recruiter and they have top-tier talent and everything from pr to project management because this is how we work now. >>> sh

e*trade from morgan stanley ♪ >>> we're now in the "closing bell" market zone, mike santoli here to break. plus, today mckeel on the selloff. leslie picker joining on the banks falling ahead of earnings next week. mike, we'll begin with you. we're going to close this sho shortened week with record highs for the s&p and the nasdaq, barring a dramatic turnaround in the next four-plus minutes. >> we can sort of hope for that, but i doubt it. it's one of those objects in motion tend to stay in motion stories, and it's also the manner in which it's doing it. today, everybody can point to the megacaps just kind of upward drift is enough for the indexes to be up, the s&p to be up 0.5%, but not only that, it's not just that they're hogging the upside, it's almost contra to the rest of the market. the low of the day this morning for the nasdaq 100 was the high of the day for the russell 2000. they're trading inversely, not just somewhat distinctly. and that just sort of tells you what's going on. when the market plays defense, it buys the seculargrowth stocks. lower highs in treasury yields, lower

i'm wilfred frost with mike santoli.resident austan goolsbee is moments away as we hear from jerome powell and christine lagarde. >>> we discuss the likelihood of any deal for the struggling streamer this hour. >>> later, tesla sales fall for the second straight quarter despite deliveries beat. why the stock is surging. we'll have that story. >>> stocks right now steady at the index level. once again, market rotating around as bond yields decline. ten-year treasury down to

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. this make-or-break hour begins with new highs. wall street gains conviction around retreating inflation, soft economic landing and the policy mix into and beyond the presidential election. we'll discuss that with experts including blackrock's rick rieder in just a moment. a look at your score card with 60 minutes left to go. the major indexes off their highs, s&p off almost half a percent. the dow in record territory as well, almost at 4,300. the nasdaq participating to the upside. the real action remains in the russell 2000 small cap. it's up close to 2% now. up basically 7% or 8% in the three trading sessions since we got that benign cpi reading last thursday. banks stocks expending last week's gains, part of the laggards catching up to the growth indexes. goldman um more than 2% as is jpmorgan, wells fargo up 1.5%. treasury yields, the yield curve is steepening a bit. ten-year at 423 as the two-year drops to 4.45. do markets have it right in these assertive moves to price in an easier fed, better earnings and a friendlier polic

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. this make or break hour begins with the revenge of the rejects. the unloved and under appreciated parts of this market, that small cap, banks, transports all continuing their ferocious comeback, started about a week ago against the former mega cap leaders. take a look at the scorecard with 06 minutes to go in regulation. the s&p 500, participating up about 0.5% at a closing record right now. the intraday closing high, 566 for those who are superstitious. the dow up 1.le%. 200 points or so is united health care up on earnings. nasdaq composite has been the laggard up about 0.8%. then the russell 2000. continuing its run up 3.75%, up more than 10% over five trading days at levels not seen for some 32 months. it peaked back in november of 2021 all time. advances across the market outpacing declinersp by a three to one ratio. is this all inclusive rally a breadth of fresh leadership or a particularly aggressive snapback by laggard groups after a long run of under performance. let's ask an

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner today. it is make or break hour. it begins with a rollback in the rotation. tech takes the lead. and this time, the gains are not coming directly at the expense of banks, small caps, and other cyclicals, which are all higher on the day. here's a look at the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. s&p 500 up a full percent, basically just above friday's highs. the nasdaq, big outperformer up 1.5%. russell 2000 actually has been gathering some steam throughout most of the day. it's up 1.25%, actually outperforming the s&p after starting well behind. semiconduct semico semiconductors rebounding forcefully after an 11% correction after its all-time high. that has a lot to do with nvidia powering higher as multiple analysts come to the stocks' defense and raise price targets. it's up 4.5%. that takes us to our talk of the tape. can this bounce be believed, and how did the shifting political probabilities play into this equation if at all? let's bring in christopher rhone, cameron davis, and jordan jackson of jpmorg

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner today. this make or break hour begins with a new month, a new quarter and a half, but a familiar push-pull between tech and treasurys. a few giants at the nasdaq pushing higher to support the main indexes you see there. the s&p 500, up about 0.7%. nasdaq is the leader, up almost 0.66%, yet a majority of stocks continue to struggle. they've been held in check in part by the ten-year treasury yield rising to about a three-week high, pushing the 4.5% threshold just a little while ago, now at 4.48%. apple, the biggest upside contributor to the s&p 500 and the nasdaq on the day, both those indexes, as we said, posting modest gains after big first halves. small caps remain a drag. russell 2000 is stuck, down more than 0.75% on the day. that all takes us to our talk of the tape. should investors' strategy shift as the market takes the turn into the second half with the s&p up more than 14% year to date, or are the prevailing trends the ones to keep playing? chief strategist at solis, dan, good to s

i'm mike santoli. this make or break hour begins with an unsettled market, chopping lower to finish out a week of erratic. the s&p 500 on pace for a weekly loss of almost 2%. it would be its worse in about three months, though it remains 3% off its recent record highs. the equal weighted version of the s&p is around flat for the week. big outperformers from the first half continue to surrender their winnings. semiconductors off nearly 3% today, down 8% or so this week and more than 10% from their record high with the nasdaq 100 also in retreat from its record high. that pullback now 5%+. the small cap russell 2000 does continue to outperform, though even it has given back about a third of that huge five-day surge into wednesday on the soft landing and federate cut posts. all of this churn has the vix as a three-month high, as traders seek protection with all these headlines flying. you see it 16.5 right now. which brings us to the "talk of the tape." is this still a healthy broadening of the bull marke

let's get over to mike santoli at the nyse. es this morning? >> becky, it's actually trying again what was attempted yesterday, which was a rally attempt after a 5% pullback in the s&p 500 based on traction, semiconductors oversold. people suggesting perhaps maybe the earnings related declines were slightly overdone in the short term. now, what we did see yesterday was the s&p closed a percent and a half off its high. recouped about half what was lost between noon and 4:00 yesterday. fitful when we are in pullback mode. s&p relative to 50 day moving average. a bit below. chopped around in that area back in the spring as well. by the way, one year ago we had that peak end of july. then we did eventually get the 10% correction, but it did start with a lot of chopping around. not to say it's foretelling what happens his year. context. july 11th, cpi for june, everybody excited about fed rate cuts. weak weighted s&p flat. here it is declining. your story eessentially. a correction of the market cap we had most of the year. utilities

. >>> for more on the broader markets get to mike santoli at the nyse. mike? >> yes. about the plodder markets you have to be specific what we're discussing when it comes to yesterday's action. the s&p 500 looks like no big deal. a good cpi number. a little sell in the news of mega cap growths supporting the market. market craving permission to assume inflation is in the sort of mission accomplished column. maybe not quite there, but you see here. 0 0.9% of 1% all-time high. angle of this resumed from where we were in the low. so that sort of still remains a pretty solid trend. what happened internally is massive underperformance of the winners versus the recent laggards. plook at the russell 2000 versus the nasdaq 100. a 5.5 or 6 percentage point spread. russell 2000 outperforming the nasdaq yesterday. the trend, falling off a cliff for a while. about 40 percentage points of underperformance from about a year and a half ago and here you got that 4%, you know, out performance, 5.5% out performance yesterday. this is the kind of thing you've only ever seen in magnitude

mike santoli.al advisers and a cnbc contributor. good morning to you, greg. >> good morning, melissa. >> so you think in the short-term, at least, we're safe in terms of this moment being preserved? >> i do. i don't think we can identify a catalyst that would turn this to the downside in the near-term. more importantly, this coming cpi number is probably the most important one we've had in a long time. those of us who kept our reservations throughout that first quarter, i think, when we look back, did so with good reason. inflation itself was accelerating, as we jumped to the top of that 30 to 40 basis points band of month -over-mont growth, but the underlying met rigs jumped as well. we saw jobs numbers in the 300 ds. well, that -- we experienced a market change last month, when we saw for the first time, 0% month over month quarterly growth. so i think those of us who had a bearish posture had to take a pause and say, maybe the fed is actually winning this, even after the fed themselves in the ma

mike santoli joins us now., that rotation was violent. >> yes. >> the question becomes is it sustainable? >> yes. well, i would say it was -- extreme, it was somewhat forced, but it was not random. so that massive outperformance really an unwind of this really tightly coiled trend we've had for so long where, you know, as we talked about so much, the largest stocks are also the most crowded stocks. the most expensive stocks, the most defensive stocks. and the highest quality stocks. that's the mag seven complex. when you finally got that inkling of when you see a clear path to a rate cut and the extremes in performance were so stretched that a little bit of a positioning unwinds -- you look at small cap outlows and efts, the short positioning in the russell 2000 futures, the dry tinder was there. in terms of it being sustainable i'm going to say the russell 2000 is not going to outperform the nasdaq, but it is workinged to. there's a distance for the mean reversions to travel even if it is just somewhat mechani

mike santoli is here to help us understand this. and the reversal is historic. no doubt about it. iwm is up again. >> for sure. one of the big dynamics over the last several weeks has been anything that was a crowded trade is suffering at the, you know, to the benefit of things that were neglected. short yen, was absolutely one of those things. and i also feel as if it's once you have this corrective rotational move, one, the least likely scenario, i think i've been hitting this, was going to be a perfectly fluid, painless move from nasdaq 100 into russell 2000 somehow. that was not going to be the way that it was going to go. you've seen the friction in the momentum unwind in the big stocks. now, i feel like what the yen moves down it's kind of like feeding the volatility gremlins after mid night. come in the in the morning and there's stress positioning. it's all mechanical stuff. it's happening with a little bit of a growth scare in the economy. not a major one. you're kind of sensitive to slow down indications. a high hurdle for

got to 414 yesterday lowest since march mike santoli is with us. are we going

right to mike santoli. standing by at the nyse. e extra torque in this rotation trade that did get rolling in a big way last week. obviously, the market is in the process of repricing a high probability of a republican win. feeds in the same direction as a lot of these market moves we saw last week. with that good cpi report, with expectations of perhaps a rate cut coming as early as september. and then these catch-up trades. in all things but the s&p 500. the s&p 500. we know that's the mag seven driven index. nvidia both 30% of the gain this year. equal-weighted s&p. russell 2000 and dow. different subsets of stocks all catch up same way and trading as one. this gap here suggests there's, perhaps, just more room there for further reverse into the mean in this. another version is banks versus tech. hearing from more financial companies in terms of their earnings. a one-year chart. you see how quickly, the banks index tried to make a catch-up move on the s&p. tech index. mentioned yield curve. key feature here. look at two versus te

get to mike santoli at the nyse, and kind of smart.as it picking up some -- i mean, in recent weeks? maybe some actual fundamentals in that magnificent seven that didn't work that great j.t. did it know somehow? >> the rotation talking about the last couple of weeks seemed to have something to do with maybe the magnificent seven-type stocks. losing relative earnings growth advantage just on the margins here. see if that plays through in the next while. s&p 500, joe, you know, going to be down by the futures indication, about another 40 points from here. last week's low. just under 5,500. see if it comes into play. even a modest pullback like in spring, sometime as false recovery. the transition seeing in markets, very smooth initially. really no net pain on the headline index level, but that's been changing in the last several days, at least. you have a little more friction. look at the group that have been net beneficiaries of the move away from mega cap growth and more cyclical financial small caps. small cap russell 2000, regional b

. >>> owner to mike santoli down at the new york stock exchange. mike, what a weekend it has been.happening here? >> yeah. andrew, basicy ally the mask is dialing back a bit. rotation we saw aggressive almost forced in a lot of ways was away from the maybe growth caps into financials cyclicals small caps. basically coming off that a little. that has positive impact to the s&p 500, which indicated up about half percent in the pre-market. from the surface level, just looks like kind of an overdue pullback in the s&p down 3% from the record high. checks back to the level that it reached very end of june. really not that big a deal. under the surface, dramatic. look here at tech relative to regional banks. sort of where there was opposing currents coming together there in terms of the different trades. of course, the probabilitieses of the election fed into this to a degree. really it's about soft landing, fed rate cuts and leaders declining and large eggards recovering. a rush. a widening out of this at least at the open now. 5% pullback in the nasdaq 100 from its high. seems like tha

mike santoli down at the new york stock exchange this morning. explain what is happening here?er cap, financials, neglected parts of the market, may be lightening up on winners is probably too mild a term. the market goes to extremes. a chart of the s&p 500 against everything not in the s&p 500. small caps, also bigger stocks not in the index. what this etf tracks. a vertical move in everything in the s&p. it's concentrated, top seven stocks a third of the market cap. interesting to date, talking about a few days, the unusual smoothness of this rotation so far. what you see today is evidence that sometimes when things move fast, you have small caps up 12% in a few days you're getting more volatile parts of the market to come to the fore and overall market becomes less stable. of course, huge winnings on the table. taking some off now. russell 2,000 the past three years. all-time high there is late 2021. definitely broken out of this two-plus year range at this point. look at that vertical needle on the chart. got to calm down. very overbought at this point. usually when you get

monday morning, and welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm david faber with leslie picker and mike santoli futures as we get ready to start the second half of the year. man, half of 2024 is already gone. going by very fast. let's get to our road map. it doesn't start with, of course, big tech, which was the big driver of stocks for the first half of the year. but one question, can nvidia and

mike santoli would talk about it better than me. >> we never did get the breadth we wanted. >> it is so narrow now, it is march of 2000. you look at the profit season. 30% profit growth versus 5% for everybody else. >> it makes you feel like something's not quite right. it is still not loved, i don't think. not as bad as last year. >> the post-pandemic. we will hear from everyone else. pepsi will have to pull back. thank god for a.i. >> this will be good to see. remember, you start off tough with the inflation and then powell has said we have good numbers. we get the latest read on consumer inflation at 8:30 a.m. eastern today. economists are looking for the headline number to rise .1% month over month. you have to look at all of the other numbers. 3.1% year over year. core is expected to hold steady at 3.4%. we'll talk to michelle gerard in a second. she thinks december. >> for a cut? >> yeah. there's an election. if they do it in september, which the way things going, that would be probably -- you can make an argument for that. >> totally. >> they're conflicted. >> you wonder if th