morgan stanley's mike wilson warned investors this was coming in several notes august 3rd, the nasdaq could plunge 15% or more august 15th, correction imminent september 12th, multi-year bear market october 8th, tipping point today, he's back to tell us what he thinks happens now. the "halftime report" starts right now. >>> welcome, good to have you with us on this thursday here to debate and trade the biggest stories of the day are joe terranova, steve weiss and jon najarian we begin with the market stocks, sharply higher the dow and the s&p looking to get back into the green for the year nasdaq higher following the worst day in seven years with some big earnings looming after the beg. we'll get to all of that in a moment but first the man who saw the selling coming morgan stanley's mike wilson so you think the correction isn't over yet >> no, i mean we're in the process of that. the good news is, this has been going on longer than people think, right it's just getting to the u.s. now. it started in january. that's when you know global equities peaked. global euphoria. and since then

we have mike wilson with us, why is that happening?pse of 2015, oil came down hard. , butof that was oversupply there was a growing belief that electric vehicles were going to be the rage and that oil is the next would --wood. peoples persisted, believe the demand for oil will go down precipitously sooner rather than later. oil prices are oil prices, what's the longest duration play? oil stocks. on theare bearish long-term price of oil and that's where the gap comes from. alix: how does that filter into margins for other companies? if you have a higher oil price and a longer-term lower oil price what does that model? >> oil prices are not a big deal for 90% of the companies because we are mostly service or it got -- service oriented and we don't do a lot of manufacturing. but this will come back to the consumer. we are getting there. national gas prices are over three dollars now. as you move towards four dollars that could be a constraint. uss fundamental technological change such as moving to electric vehicles? i come from the publis

>> and mike wilson from morgan stanley has the article about the tipping point. i think the acceleration is something we talked about for the last week and a half or so in terms of the rates and it has been an incredibly fast run in the last couple of days even take a look at the rates that combined with the idea volatility is back today is a great example of what we've been looking at for the last week, right the up and down moves of the market have been absolutely staggering and it's barely past noon and we've been up or down hundreds of points already, scott. i think it will calm as we get into actual earnings and that's coming at the end of the week. >> steph, do you feel we're at a tipping point? that is the headline of this mike wilson note are we at a tipping point because of rates >> i don't think so. i think the u.s. is very, very strong we're all talking about housing and that being the worrisome point. prices are still going up for housing. if you look at the consumer, small business and the confidence levels, they're strong business investment is on t

that surrounds a low i watched mike wilson's interview. he's done a great job. >> you missed the boat to get negative >> we're not having this conversation at peaks. interestingly, judge, you know i'm a credit guy today schwab, aflac and boeing have done credit deals into this market whoosh. there's no shutdown in credit which means to us, still, this is a market event that starts with ridiculous vix. >> if you didn't get negative when mike wilson said you should and you're wondering what to do. >> you add into it >> it's not linear we know that for a fact. it could be 15%. but if you look at -- break down the market it's not even stocks are trading differently. you look at home building cycles they're all trading. >> that's a recession trade put on >> it is a recession trade which i think maybe the market drops 5% but the money will come out of the higher stocks >> they have been cut in some camps, margins being cut in some camps. >> that will all depend on the ability of companies to pass their cost to the consumer margins are peak and s

thank you for being here. >> mike wilson, steve liesman, thank you. up next. >>> a safe haven trade with a futures now, guys, we're talking gold and in just a few minutes from now, double line capital's jeffrey gundlach is with us live ♪ introducing e*trade personalized investments professionally managed portfolios customized to help meet your financial goals. you'll know what you're invested in and how it's performing. so you can spend more time floating about on your inflatable swan. [ding] unstopand it's strengthenedting place, the by xfi pods,gateway. which plug in to extend the wifi even farther, past anything that stands in its way. ...well almost anything. leave no room behind with xfi pods. simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today. >>> welcome back to the halftime report 12:30 in the east. there's your market picture. the nasdaq is positive so is the russell. the dow though still under a little pressure. it's been bouncing around, volatile as you know down 44 points, the s&p is down .25%. the s&p is going for its sixth straig

morgan stanley's mike wilson warned investors this was coming in several notes august 3rd, the nasdaqld plunge 15% or more august 15th, correction imminent september 12th, multi-year bear market october 8th, tipping point today, he's back to tell us what he thinks happens

let's bring in mike wilson, chief u.s. equities strategy at morgan stanley why worse? why wasn't that it >> well, it's in process, okay, so the things we've been working for, rates going up too high and putting cap on valuation in the much rich parts of the market which is tech, growth stocks, that's beginning, and unless rates come down we're capped, right, so to me that's the issue here today is what are you playing for at this point at index level, right it's getting harder. 2780 is kind of as far as we can go unless you went to bet on another meltup, so it's going to get worse because of liquidity what steve said is spot on is that the qe, the qt is what people are underestimating i agree with you, karen, it's not a surprise, but the problem is we timely flicked so the combination of qt accelerating and ecb started tapering on october 1st and this is the blackout period for share buybacks so all three of those have created less liquidity in the marketplace at a time when we need more demand for supply and that's why rates spiked so now you're in a bad situation. th

>> i do read his stuff >> mike wilson will be on.'m glad he's on to get someone to say t righshg it, right, san? >> he's been consistent on this. >> for how long? >> several months. >> far so good yet someone taking that side or else it can't happen. >> i think the macro fundamentals are sound we got a gdp print of 3.5% consumer spending at close to 4% we did have some scattered disappointments in the earnings season in general. we have half the companies reporting so far 82% of the companies are beating expectations that's above the historic average. valuation improved significantly since january. we had the s&p multiple at 8.5 we're down to 15 there are a lot of things to worry about we've built in some pretty big risk premiums in order to have a margin to safety there. >> david, another one of this gentleman's points, he'll be on -- be good for a promo. people have to wait to see him he says we need to recalibrate 2019 earnings growth the market is telling us that. and the profit margins will be one of the issues. you say -- you p

. >> people pay attention to mike wilson's view of the market morphing in potentially a bear market itsn't sound like you're any more constructive on the macro either. >> i feel like the issue is this basically. the only economy in the world which is doing well currently is the united states. every single other major economy in the world has been slowing down i just feel that the u.s. economy is so stretched just now that it is likely to catch down with the rest of the world rather than the other way around, which is the rest of the world catches up to the strength of the united states that's partly because many of the indicators in the united states in terms of the consumer confidence, the manufacturing surveys, the small business indices, these are at multi-decade highs you know, it's very hard to imagine that they're going to improve further from here. so my basic narrative is for the u.s. economy, it's great for now but this is as good as it gets. >> and then i'll go on to say when the next bull market begins, you think international takes the lead why is that? >> well, a couple of

mike wilson says how bad he thinks the selloff could get and sears waving the white flag and filing for is the downfall of the cite american icon a warning for other retailers or cautionary tale of mismanagement? we've got all the details, but first we start off with a make-or-break moment for the market as it remains under pressure earnings season, will it be,

morgan stanley mike wilson on halftime just a few minutes ago weighing in on where we are in this choppy market. >> there's been a lot of damage now. i would argue 80% of its probably done at this point. i would argue from a price level standpoint we still think 2450, 2,500 would be a very good entry point for the s&p 500 and we probably get there sometime in the next four to eight weeks. >> so is he right? is 80% of the damage done? is the bottom coming in the next four to eight weeks? let's bring in tony roth and randy warren. you guys come at this from different perspectives. tony, you say buy the dip just as in february and randy, you say buy protection. i'll start with randy. why are you a little more defensive here and what kind of protection should i be buying? >> its pretty simple. the global economy really has a cavity at this point and people don't know whether to pull it or to just do a root canal but the bottom line is, cavities don't just go away. they tend to get worse. we're a little worried about where the market's been. the last couple times i've been on your show i've b

most recently in the incumbent in ferguson who did not prosecute darren wilson who killed mike brown. this is a movement and that first spark did happen with the leadership ignoring and is you pressing that video. >> you are in chicago and you know chicago and know your way around the criminal justice system as a defendant and a former inmate and your conviction overturned. you represent others and when you look at the case. does it give you hope and you feel like the system is changing. >> first let me start off by extending my condolences to the family and i pray they will start to heal from the process. i will say this, i am born and raised on the southside of chicago. i left chicago and started my practice in new york, but i am often in chicago. my mother still stays in chicago. i am very much involved with everything chicago. my heart was in my throat as i'm sitting here in chicago in awaiting that verdict. there was a community outcry that brought this on. i must acknowledge that there were two reporters. two reporters who started this and uncovered the video that it took 13 mon

it's a legitimate conversation to have. >> mike shields, i appreciate it. jeff toobin, rick wilson.uch. i want to check in with chris to see what he's working on for "cuomo prime time." chris? >> i want to know who the lawyer is in the white house that told the president he can change what's in the 14th amendment by fiat. he said his lawyers told him. i want to know who that lawyer is. i think the white house should produce them. and i think that that party -- the election is a week away. you're analyzing it exactly right. you're doing it from the right place. is the whole party on board with trump's campaign of fear and loathing? are they? we have a congressman on tonight from that party, a young leader, who says it needs to stop. and then we're going to put cuomo's court in session and we're going to go through the legalities of bringing the military and changing the 14th amendment. we'll give people the facts. >> chris, i appreciate it. i'll see you in a couple minutes. all the victims here in pittsburgh touched the lives of others in so many unique ways. others in so many unique

peter wilson, bbc midlands today, birmingham. let's speak to mikes of drugs—related crime and county lines operations. hejoins us from manchester via webcam. what does the term ‘county lines' actually mean? how on earth do they manage to get access to these children in what the mother has just described as a loving, caring home? what that mother described is horrific. these children are groomed and didn‘t taste, like we talk about child sexual exploitation of victims, other types of crimes, these children are groomed into this. they are offered gifts, a life that they want. fancy designer clothes, etc. they are being smeared and trapped. sometimes through debt bondage and then they can‘t escape. they threaten the application of violence means they can‘t get away. threaten the application of violence means they can't get awaylj threaten the application of violence means they can't get away. i just wa nt to means they can't get away. i just want to point you to our website, the headline for this story is a drill rapper, were using it in air introducti

great, thank you. >> i have to ask you to speak closer to the mike, but i won't ask you really hard questions. the institute in the wilson center and what we do all day every day is talk about the importance of the relationship. you gave some great examples in your presentation, but can you underscore for us the importance of u.s. leadership in space and why canada works well with the united states? >> well, when you look at the sizes of the country, you have the united states down here and canada up here and the same goes with respect to space. our national priorities can be slightly different as well. what the relationship allows us to do, those that are at a lower status in terms of budgets and what not, the cooperation allows us to get to places we never would before and the ways the models have evolved over time is we have a barter arrangement for each one of these colab bragss. canada would have a niche of expertise and we would provide that to a particular mission in exchange for data that canadian scientists would have access to in a privileged fashion. so that kind of quid pro quo is clearly a win-win propositio

mike pompeo is on his way back to the u.s. expected to return tonight or tomorrow morning . the president says the to wilson made for a long discussion on missing journalists, saudi journalist, jamal khashoggi . >> i want to find out what happened, where is the fault and we will probably know that by the end of the week. >> reporter: the president says he is withholding judgment over the disappearance of saudi journalist, jamal khashoggi, waiting until secretary of state mike pompeo returns from his back to back emergency meetings in the middle east . >> he spent a lot of time with the crown prince and he is going to have a full report. >> reporter: during his flight home, pompeo discussed saudi arabia's request to investigate themselves while meeting with turkey's foreign minister in ankara. >> he made clear that the saudi's had cooperated with the investigation that the turks are engaged in and that they're going to share information that they learned with the saudi's as well. >> reporter: president donald j. trump is saying his first question will be about turkeys claim to have audio or video recordings

wilson and injured one of her sisters. he could face the death penalty if convicted and his attorneys say he is mentally ill. >>> just a short time ago vice president mike pence arrived in albany georgia and yesterday the president and first lady went the gulf coast. at least 19 people were killed and 46 are still missing. . . >>> the world is remembering paul allen. the man who cofound microsoft with bill gates died yesterday. he owned the portland trail blazers and sea hawks. 1 estimate puts his charitable giving at $2 billion. he was 65 years old. >>> bill gates released the statement saying paul loved life and those around him. he deserved much more time but his contributions to the world of technology will live on, paul allen never married and did not have children but was close to his sister . >>> more than two-dozen women in california say they have been touched inappropriate at the massage envy. >> at some point during the session it turned pretty quickly. . >> a couple of months go five women filed a law suit and now more than 30 women have joined the suit, we look into the allegations the law suits claim are being covered up by the company. >>

mike. >>> it is 5:22. coming up, marin county leaders made their decision on flavored tobacco. we'll tell you if the products will be banned all together. >>> rebel wilson the star of the "pitch perfect" movies is on ellen dressed up for halloween. >> so i saw that everybody in "pitch perfect" was posing with the number four. does that mean there's going to be a "pitch perfect 4"? >> that was "ellen" j like the wilson ball there, rebel wilson. >> what she had to say about her "pitch perfect" movie coming up. >>> this morning, we're up and online as we were on twitter yesterday as well. i got to sit and meet and talk to dr. anita hill. she spoke at yesterday's ywca inspired luncheon. i was inspired and honored to be the emcee of that event. it was a great one. follow me on twitter, laura garcia nbc. give us a shout out. there comes a point when you realize the bathroom you used to love needs a makeover. let a professional rebath design consultant help craft the look you want. call 925-233-6471 and save $1000 off your complete bathroom remodel hit >>> it's 5:26. in santa rosa, a biker hit and killed by a dump truck. that accident happened on stony point r

wilson center. it's exciting that the trump administration has made space policy a priority. putting the national space council back in business with mike pence as chairman, and by creating a space force. as you will hear, no doubt. from the administrator, this renewed government focus is already having spin-off effects for commercial activity in space. many of you are connected to commercial activity 37 the u.s. and canada are allies on land, in the ocean and in space. and surely in the intelligence base. something i know quite a bit about. >> i'm pleased to welcome the large canadian organization that is joining us here today especially the president of the canadian space agency. nasa administrator jim brydon stein, who was sworn in as the agency's 13th administrator on april 23rd, 2018. that does seem long ago. a fellow recovering politician, he served as a member of congress from oklahoma's first congressional district for three terms. we didn't overlap sadly. where he was a member of the science space technology. please join me in welcoming nasa administrator jim brydonstein who will make some brief remarks and then we'll have a fe