alix: coming up on this program, mike wilson will be joining us.essimistic looking at his own version of the yield curve and what it tells us about growth. this is bloomberg. ♪ at comcast, we didn't build the nation's largest gig-speed network just to make businesses run faster. we built it to help them go beyond. because beyond risk... welcome to the neighborhood, guys. there is reward. ♪ ♪ beyond work and life... who else could he be? there is the moment. beyond technology... there is human ingenuity. ♪ ♪ every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. ♪ >> there's more news to be anxious about than there is to be positive about. gorman, ceo of morgan stanley, weighing in on yield curve inversion and what it means for market anxiety. and the 10 year's next move. aberdeen saying the market is .rong, while pimco says buy dollar general delivers solid earnings on the high-end, while dollar tree is cutting its full-year forecast. it is a battle for your wallet. welcome to "

taylor: thank you, mike wilson. sticking with tech, don't miss our interview with the gopro s ceo tonight. mike pompeo says situation in venezuela is fluid. we have all the details on the crisis in caracas head. -- ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ amanda: mrs. bloomberg markets, on melinda lang -- amanda lang in toronto. taylor: i'm taylor riggs in new york. opposition leader juan guaido faces a major step back as nicolas maduro keeps a stronghold on the military. lawmakers in washington are weighing in including security advisor john bolton. figures like the defense minister, chief judge of the supreme court, head of the presidential guard, have been outed as people dealing with the opposition. if you are nicolas maduro, can you look at your defense minister anymore and trust him? i don't think so. maduro is now surrounded by scorpions in a bottle and it is only a matter of time. taylor: for more on how these tensions could spill over into other emerging market economies, i want to welcome our guest from voya investment

we have had two bears start to come around, mike wilson at morgan stanley, someone from wells fargo,recover from what they thought up in an earnings recession and turning slightly more positive for the year. what are your views on an earning recession as earnings shape up to be better than we thought? susan: i am positive on the market overall. i'm positive on companies showing its ability to outperform and continue to hold those margins and get growth in this market. i think there is a confidence in the underlying u.s. consumer. when you talk to regional banks, they are seeing confidence in their customers. strengtha grassroots that exists in the u.s. economy. we are seeing low unemployment, strong jobs growth, we are not seeing pressure from inflation yet. i do not agree with an earnings recession. i think there is still upside in this market, despite above average valuations. paul: i just want to quickly get your thoughts on europe as well. obviously a lot of risk there. we heard a moment ago about one commentator describing it as the next y2k. we have seen encouraging data. what

that is what mike wilson is those concerned with.ose 2019 earnings estimates are too high. if you look at the cap axa spendings, it has been coming down in that can help some tech companies. you can save money by spending less but also have more detrimental effects on the supply chain. francine: thank you both. andrew and geraldine stay with us. coming up, we speak to the new york fed john williams at 10:30 a.m. london time. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ bloombergthis is surveillance. let's get to the bloomberg business flash new york city. viviana: t-mobile and sprint considering concessions to salvage the over $26 billion merger. among the options reportedly being discussed is the potential sale of their so-called presale business. the tieup could hurt u.s. wireless of addition. they have said they get challenge the likes of verizon and at&t. strain ofnder the falling revenue and rising costs. euros biggest telecom carrier slashing the quarterly payout by 40%. sales in the fourth quarter falling slightly from a year ago. the company has t

chetan: mike wilson's point is based on the fact that the u.s.. that is forming his view that he is not confident earnings will be good going forward. from a global perspective, the story was really in the rest of the world. you had support from china coming in. we were expecting europe and japan to do better, but the trade tension story is taking the sting out of the flow-through -- growth recovery story we had. francine: if there is a recession in the u.s. looming, where do you see it first? the inverted yield curve, the oil price? chetan: in the financial prices broadly -- conditions broadly. one way would be looking at the chicago fed financial conditions index. based on the tightening and the number of basis points. by 100 basis points from december to now, and when the fed made the pivot, and the preceding three months at had tightened by 75 basis points. if you see anything of this set -- of the nature of 75% to 100 basis points, you will see spreads coming to rescue us. the first cut about 50 basis 2019s by the first quarter -- fourth-qua

according to mike wilson, morgan stanley's chief equity analyst. he is the strategists that most accurately predicted the stock drop. little progress in persuading america's european allies to take a high line towards iran. that is what mike pompeo says during his quick visit to brussels. they are standing by the nuclear accord abandoned by the u.s. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. thank you. coming up on the show, we are live in zurich speaking exclusively to john williams. we will be asking him about his concerns are around trade and what is the potential really for rate cuts this year. do not miss it. this is bloomberg. ♪ nejra: this is bloomberg daybreak. manus: i am manus cranny in dubai. the reality of the auto industry. 5% at dropping by nearly one juncture in this session. the biggest one-day drop since the 28th of december 2012. the nneka i a report, low 200's for the current year. impaired to the average protection of 453.

. >> i tend to agree with what joe is talking about, have we seen the highs and like mike wilson is pointing out and it doesn't mean that anything is going down and you can't buy anything and there are opportunities that present themselves every day and it's more difficult, because a day like today is almost impossible and it started to melt back up and we're down 200 points and the semis are strong and the fxi. look at brazil and the fxi >> trading in positive territory, it didn't really make sense, though, based upon what we were seeing in the market >> it makes sense, steve grasso. people are saying maybe worst is over >> i don't believe that. i don't think the positioning was as bad as it was in december i think there is a risk to the upside and once these trade conversations start to have a better tone and as long as the, and i think we can climb back to those levels >> you know it's to the down side when the market has a big dunn day, rallies later and the vix closes unchanged you didn't get that today, but i'll tell you it was close so just throwing that out there. tomorrow is an impo

. >> i was at an event with mike wilson from morgan stanley, he said the exact opposite. he thinks that the there are has peaked and he thinks that the there are is going lower, and he talked a very bearish game in the longer term in terms of the markets and he thinks they can continue to mull around where they are with this grinding process and he ended up being bearish at the end of the kay, and where does he think the market is going and in particular where the dollar is going? >> that's not where you stand. >> i was willing to listen to him and i thought how it was a very sensible. everyone's got their opinion the trading know viernment has been phenomenal, ml. the volatility has delivered that that 15 to call it 20. the opportunity is to buy at 15 and i'm talking about individual names here i took off 30 names because it was final he the opportune environment and everything has been very, very short term i have some long-term plays and all of the short term stuff i took half of them. >> stocks continue to swing on trade headlines and our next guest says the volatilit

morgan stanley's mike wilson oft quoted and we visit with him on this desk, he's looking for a huge pickup in volatility in the months ahead, not unlike we've heard from, you know, the likes of gundlach and some others. what about this you've got higher volatility, the trade war in full tloten there, jamie dimon'stalking about business confidence being impacted but you have consumer confidence >> six month high. >> a massive jump. so you tell me what's more important in the big picture >> consumer confidence follows the stock market by a month. st irrelevant. >> i agree with that i think consumer confidence is reactionary. look, for there to be more volatility in the market, we talk a lot, we focus on the show about the equity market, the credit market is fine. we managed $40 million worth of taxable fixed assets and they are doing fantastic year to date, high yield, investment grade, that's where investors in the portfolio are flowing and you're not seeing the corrections that you're seeing in the equity market so to have the higher volatility at a certain point the credit markets are goi

of everything else and we're seeing the volatility actually starting to move to the upside but mike wilson's been all over this, this rolling bear market, he was dead on in 2018, he's been incorrect in this early part of 2019 maybe he's starting to get a little more correct, though, because he's talked about the deterioration of what's going on in the economy, not just globally he's even talking about the u.s. he's talking about the service sector a lot of different areas that he points to that give him the sense that, you know what? we are in a little bit more of a tough shape than the market's been signaling to us and maybe the ten year is actually the thing that's out there telling us exactly that. >> glad you went there weiss, ten year falls to 221 just as we come on the air, lowest since september of 2017 i ask you the question i posed at the top is this december all over again? is that where we're headed >> i think it's worse than december, actually, because there are more issues. so, if you came to me and said, i've got this great ceo for you, he's bankrupted three or four companies,

do i reallocate today or wait for mike wilson's next note? sixet for the s&p months from now is 2750 so you have to get below that target. then it will make sense to allocate to the u.s. again. francine: andrew sheets -- tom: andrew sheets will give us perspective in the next hour. our team is working overtime on these moving markets. let's look at the data as we begin another hour of bloomberg "surveillance." yields to record lows. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ late evening, the president bleeds his trade war to the border war. the markets adjust with a vengeance, yen strengthens. gap is down. mexico is not china. mexico is bigger and it is next-door. how will the global system adjust deutsche bank's shares to bring forward the real yield -- shares? ringing forward the real yield. 2019 is the "right" investment year. a billion here, a billion there. visuals ofe with the the chancellor of germany outgoing and the secretary of state of the united states bearing messages, mr. pompeo. why is mr. pompeo speaking with chancellor merkel? francine: we fini

combining those would things both really in focus today this is a chart from morgan stanley from mike wilsony group at morgan stanley. takes some explaining here the orange obviously is the treasury yield curve three months to ten years which we now know has become inverted again this chart itself is inverted. therefore, when this is going up it means it's below zero now when it goes lower this is going up and it matches up with the volatility index the yield curve chart, though, is pushed forward o'by three years. in other words, his point is that when you get a flat yield curve for the next three years you tend to have elevated volatility it means you're getting to the end of a cycle it means the markets are wondering are we going to run into a recession, is the fed going to ease, is it going to be on time, all the rest of it, which causes market volatility to prove it so to speak you look at the past three cycles so this again, this yield curve is pushed forward in time but it matches up where you had this rise in volatility into recessions a couple of different times which coincided or b

in oakland, wilson walker kpix5 f ive. >> amazing. good to see mikehealy, he was the voice of b.a.r.t. for decades. >>> also impacting your commute, ride share drivers expected to hold a strike tomorrow. >> drivers are asking for livable wages and a cap on the ride sharing company's commission. >> they stand to raise billions and we're sitting here like, wow. you're constantly cutting our pay. >> i hear it, but i'm not sure exactly what all the uber drivers they're going to do. >> right now it's not clear how many drivers will take part of the strike. but they hope that there will be enough drivers who are willing to turn off the app. >>> the town of victoria turned pitch black. all the street lights started coming on. people there say it lasted for about an hour. they were also dealing with winds around 60-miles-an-hour. paul have you ever seen it get that dark? >> if you've been in arizona in the summertime when you get the outflow from the thunderstorms it can go from the middle of day to yeah pitch black. it's kind of crazy. they try to get all th

civil rights leaders mike parks and king and i don't mean martin, i mean coretta, apple ceo tim cook and e.o. wilsonlee. the south has got no shortage of brilliant people and i haven't even left alabama for this list, i don't need to go outside of my own family to find one and for one i ain't talking about me. a great joy of my life fans of your work are fans of my work and don't realize -- >> wait, wait, you're related. >> cousins. like real cousins, blood line. to me this is my cousin nora but to the rest of the world this is n.k. jemison. she's won two hugo award, an award won by philip k. dick, isaac azimov and j.k. rowley but she is the first black author to win one and only the third person of any race to win them back-to-back. well, thanks for coming back to mobile for me. >> i only came because you asked. >> as soon as i'm of the right age -- sri lanka. >> is in that noticeable? >> the feeling was -- down to the fact that somehow you don't have a southern accent, i feel like you sort of acted like i'm not taking that on. >> you grew up here. you lived here. not like you were coming beak an f

mike. the sharks got on the scoreboard first when brent burns last once the goal line, deflected in by the captain. they were playing like their hair was on fire. colin wilson scored on a pass. the game was tied up, but wait, pete challenged the play because he thought colorado was offsides. he was right. the goal was waved off. it was a crushing moment for colorado. later in the period, they added another goal to give the sharks a two goal lead. they hung on to win 3-2. they are heading to their fifth western conference finals. to the dressing room. >> we earned this one. this is coming off of seven games against vegas. we were emotionally drained. we were banged up. i knew this would be a large hill to climb. >> he was great. he played his heart out in a game we did not think that we could play in. >> the st. louis blues will be waiting. saturday, game one is right here where the drops at 5:00. in san jose, berne glenn, kpix 5. >> thank you, baseball news, the giants were postponed in denver against the rockies due to bad weather. meanwhile, the a's are right next-door against the cincinnati reds. the a's and reds are tied in 4 the 13th. stephen sent ever

mike epps came and gave my mother some love and a joint [ laughter ] and charlie wilson gave my motherou go. well, he's the one guy that we - >> yes >> seth: can forgive for his gift >> exactly [ laughter ] >> seth: you hosted the naacp awards this year >> yeah. >> seth: and this is -- we both hosted some stuff. this would be my nightmare you got stuck in an elevator >> yeah. >> seth: like ten minutes before the show >> not even, like seven or eight minutes before the opening monologue of a live broadcast. >> seth: wow >> it was about 12 to 15 others in a freight elevator at the dolby coming up to the second level to get to my dressing room and the doors -- the elevator got to the second level and did not open and, you know, my entire family is in there with security and all the handlers and all that. and my mother starts to panic. somebody else starts to panic. i was like, "guys, well, you know, we came this far [ laughter ] we came this far." and, so, finally, the elevator went back down to the first floor level. and then, we had to walk back up two levels. and they were in the corne

my response ability or secretary wilson but that's an answer question best asked for the state department and i get the full confidence from the secretary of state, mike pompeo. >> i have a follow-up. there has been very much a public discussion or public mention by secretary pompeo and national security john bolton and as well as acting secretary shanahan about the potential for a military option in venezuela. as i recall secretary shanahan said the pentagon the plan exhaustively for a potential material option in venezuela so how ready and given all the other drains on your forces from other world-class -- how ready is both the army and air force to execute anyone of these exhaustively planned military options for venezuela? >> we plan all the time and effort militaries do. we organize, train, equip and there are plans for all kinds. that would be irresponsible not to do that. when we look at what were happening in venezuela is a tremendous tragedy and a humanitarian disaster and creation of its government. we don't know what is going to continue to happen there but i think it is wise to continue to evaluate and plan. >> with all due respect can you

my responsibility or secretary wilson's as title x providers, that is a question best asked for the state department. i have the full confidence in secretary of state mikeompeo. ms. starr: i will ask him and his will a follow-up to that. [laughter] there has been very much a public, discussion public mentioned by secretary pompeo and national security adviser john bolton, as well as acting secretary shanahan about the potential for a military option in venezuela. as i recall, acting secretary shanahan said the pentagon had planned exhaustively for a potential military option in venezuela. , given all the other dreams on your forces from other world hotspots, how ready is both the army and the air force anyone of these exhaustively planned military option for venezuela? wilson: we plan all the time, that is what militaries do . we organize, train, equip, and there are plans for all kinds of contingencies. -- it would be irresponsible not to do that. when you look at what is happening in venezuela, it is a , amendous tragedy humanitarian disaster at the creation of its government. we don't know what is going to continue to happen there but i think it is w

mike busch, who died last month. >>> a young life cut shor by gun violence here in d.c. will live through a foundation guided by her mother and sister.s these girle the first to carry onkh a wilson's name through the makhaya scouts progrnt. the meing program met for if first time tonight. the adults and older girls here hope to create a sisterhoodo empower young women to be active in their communities. the program is named for makhaya wilson. she was killed by a stray bullet on her way to get ice cream last july. she was just ten years old. seven people have been arrested and charged in her death. >>> tonight the threat of the measles is spreading to two popular destinations. >> and fears are growin that some of the most popular venues could be hot spots for the spread of the virus. hundredsacked this amc heater in orange county, california over the weekend to see that blockbuster avengers movie. now the health department confirms a measles patient was among those at a midnight showing. >> and awm female creember on a ship owned by the church of scientology has the measles. the ship is under quarantine, docd at the caribbean island of st. lucia. so how do you knowbe if you've n va

wilson as a title ten provider. that's a question best asked for the state department and i've got full confidence in secretary of state mike pompeo. >> well, i'll ask the venezuela follow-up then. there has been very much a public discussion, public mention by secretary pompeo and the national security advisor, john bolton, as well as admiral fowler, as well as acting secretary shanahan about the potential for a military option in venezuela. as i recall, acting secretary shanahan said the pentagon had planned exhaustively for a potential military option in venezuela. how ready, how -- given all the other drains on your forces from other world hot spots, how ready is both the army and air force to execute any one of these exhaustively planned military options for venezuela? >> we plan all the time. that's what militaries do, and we organize, train, equip and there are plans for all kinds of contingencies. that's a -- that would be irresponsible not to do that. and i think when we look at what's happening in venezuela, it's a tremendous traigedy, the government. we don't know what's going to continue to happen there, but i t

wilson center, has covered russia for years now. jill, i bond from we could start big picture here. you have secretary of state mike pompeo saying just moments ago that the president wants to find common ground with russia. i was sort of writing down a list on the back of an envelope here of all the issues u.s. and russia are at odds with on iran, venezuela, election interference, continuing election interference by russia, syria, russia has put weapons in space targeting u.s. space assets, arms control, russia just pulled out of a major missile treaty. what is the common ground that the trump administration thinks is there? >> you know, i feel, jim, number one it's good they're talking because both sides say they want to do it, they really aren't talking for the most part. so this is good news. now, what can they actually agree on? i think they can both agree on the fact that the mueller investigation is over and as the president sees it and also as president putin sees it that's the end of the story. you know, essentially they won, they feel, and so they can go on to try to repair this relationship. when you get

wilson! >> oh, my god, it's my favorite show ever! am i susie? am i on "curb"? joining us now, best-selling author and columnist, mikeday and i have no idea what that clip had to do with your book and you being here, but it was still fun. joe, take it away. >> you know, mike, you're reading stories today, we're all reading stories today about buckner and how the sports writers in boston were tough on him and fans were tough on him. and i'm sure they were. buckner himself said he shouted insults at his family. it was hard for him to forgive the sports don't know a real rx fan that sat through the '86 season and sat through the series that went away from that blaming buckner. i know that's folklore, but i have been inundated with emails, so many were happy he came back in 2008 because he was so beloved by the fenway faithful who followed the game. >> you know, the only positive of finding out about his passing yesterday was that a light got shined on the fact of what a great gentleman he was and how well he handled that, what a great baseball player. john and i talked to him before the show today. never struck out thre