morgan stanley's mike wilson joining us.e on what is making headlines outside the business world. viviana hurtado is here with first word news. viviana: today the impeachment inquiry will focus on the former special envoy to ukraine. he will be interviewed by house democrats. he played a key role in connecting rudy giuliani with ukrainian officials. democrats call a cut -- a text message to giuliani evidence of highly illegal coordination. airbus jets will cost more in the u.s., so we'll scotch whiskey, french wine, and italian cheese. the trump administration announcing new tariffs on $7.5 billion of new products. the u.s. getting the go-ahead from the wto. it is the largest award in wto history. equity is having an impact on public markets according to the ceo of aries management, and alternative asset manager which includes private equity. >> companies are staying private longer. the private markets are being what they can do for private company. that is impacting what is going on in a public market. fewer public companie

mike wilson is morgan stanley's chief equity strategist.that accurate you're not ready to feel so good yet? >> not yet >> what's the problem? you admit we're not as bad as feared, right? >> that's where we'll probably have a debate. the earnings story is clear. let's go through some numbers, which is s&p 500 earnings will be down 4 or 5% third quarter. maybe better, down three >> down less than three now. say three. >> whatever, three, fine but the bigger story is in the s&p and 1000 mid small caps are down almost double digits throw quarters in a row. we can agree that a the engine of jobs growth is small businesses is that fair can we agree our call has been that the risk of a recession is a labor cycle and my concern continues to be if thi improve they're going to have to start laying people off. i think to say that risk is behind us is premature first of all, the market has rallied a lot in the last couple of months. we've had the fed cutting rates, a lot of monetary stimulus, which is good. a brexit progress. trade deal progress. so i

you are getting slayed on twitter, we married mike wilson talk about the business cycle.look at unemployment at 50-year lows all that stuff where the gains are come i don't see it for that. robert half brothers. >> dan wrote sell before you opened your outh. >> he wrote sell when he walked in. >> yesterday. >> on monday on guy's pitch. >> a clean sweep in terms of passes on the desk but are you at home buying the pitch op rhi vote on the twitter poll on cnbc process coming up two big calls on cryptoand bitcoin baller bk lays out why he thinks it could be a good time no smiles. smile direct getting slammed today. but pgs ohs traders think it beams thwi opportunity much more "fast money" right after this at has a truly long-t? it begins by being privately owned. with more than 85 years of experience over multiple market cycles. with portfolio managers who are encouraged to do what's right over what's popular. focused on helping me achieve my investors' unique goals. can i find an investment firm that gets long term the way i do? with capital group, i can. talk to your advis

with regards to mike wilson's comment, uncertainty has driven business owners to sit on the sidelines. >> they need the catalyst for that to happen. reservethe federal deliberating in a week from now. they are looking it earnings, and i'm sure they are, what kind of conclusion do you think they would come to? a lot of stale news, that the dollar has been a pain. i think they would be theyrtable the reasons have had to prepare a rate cut or not pushback against the market, those are all pretty price, expected, and the current state of play. >> how does that mean leave the dollar? the dollar has remained resolutely higher. at what point will we start to see weakness? >> as the global economy improves. perceived as a better economy recently, but global weakness is leaking into the u.s. if the global environment moves higher and stabilized, that is when the dollar will weaken. i do think the fed will cut next week. the fed is lessening the uncertainty while the administration is raising the uncertainty. if the president starts lessening the uncertainty, that is where you would get a marke

the alternative, mike wilson is saying to not get ahead of yourself.ore of a truce than an agreement. you could see a divided stance on where the u.s. stocks are going in the fourth quarter. today, you are not seeing a lot of volume, not seeing a lot of trading. something to keep an eye on. you can do so by running gtv on your terminal. guy: mr. columbus probably has a certain amount to do with that. vonnie: i will stick with the theme of china. the slow down we were talking about earlier continues. one of the metrix is car sales, coming in negative last month. 7.5 million. it has been a year and a half we have seen negative car sales in china. one of the big indicators. the chinese would buy cars if they had extra to spare. they would save as well. for the last several years we have had at least periods of green if not the entire year. it is a big indicator. to get more tariffs, that will potentially make the number dip even more. guy: absolutely. today's winner, vonnie quinn. the focus on car sales, the focus on what is happening with chinese da

watching bond part do better that's what it's there for >> that's the same sort of philosophy that a mike wilson would project to you, if he were sitting on the set, in which he said on numerous occasions, the time to make the move is not now, it was before >> but you -- look, again, this is way out of my area of expertise, but i don't want to have to worry about my portfolio every day, personally. so i make it so if we go up or down, i'm okay maybe a little bit more in stocks, a little bit less in stocks but generally, i got the 60/40 split or whatever it's supposed to be. and i set it and forget it >> let me give you some other ideas. jenny had western dig, it's been a great performer. bank of america has their top ten ideas for the fourth quarter. i'm not going to read the whole list, but salesforce, disney, raytheon, target, i mean, i don't know who owns a name like aramark or dover or new york community bank, but those are the buys >> so new york community bank is one of the companies that i've been researching and it's kind of topically, it look like a complete dog when you look at it, rig

morgan stanley's mike wilson will say everything you said, that's fine and good as his note points out, it's still defensives, underneath the killer, staples, utilities earnings are weak no matter how you want to sugarcoated, the bar is low expectations were ridiculously low. how do you counter that. >> first of all, market level positioning, it's low, below average. discretionary hedge funds, equity, macro, basically looking at some of the lowest in the cycle. on the average side of position. liu within the market, that's where things are really interesting. we are facing a defensive bubble the market is pricing in probably things are not going to get better if you get any improvement from current depressed levels, i think market is thinking two, three, quarters ahead and not focusing on 3q going back to comments of cyc c cyclic cyclicals, if results come in better than slightly feared, stocks move higher. >> you like tech, industrials, cyclicals, energy, value, discretionary, you think the consumer still works >> i like the cyclical side, deep value, energy industrials and value with

coming up on "the open" with jonathan ferro, mike wilson.on trade and we are getting the chinese delegation arriving -- waiting for them to arrive in d.c. to continue trade talks against president trump. many fundamental investors say it is a show me story but the charts look positive. this is bloomberg. happy friday. ♪ from the couldn't be prouders to the wait did we just win-ners. everyone uses their phone differently. that's why xfinity mobile let's you design your own data. now you can share it between lines. mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. it's a different kind of wireless network designed to save you money. save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. plus get $250 back when you buy an eligible phone. call, click, or visit a store today. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, global equities rally. the president says trade talks are going well. crude jumping up after iran's has a

the low observations come from mike wilson at morgan stanley and bark lay -- if you want to take a lookhe s&p 500, between the end of the third quarter and the end of the fourth quarter, over 10 years, the folks looked at the numbers and posted them on average. the last ten years the s&p has gained between the end of september and the year end about a 4% level for the s&p 500 if that was to come to fruition again this time around on average, remember 4%, the s&p would end up at 3,101. so it would be a record high, but carl, certainly something to pay attention to when the fourth quarter starts off as roughly as it has for the bulls so far this year back over to. >> thanks a lot. dominic keeping us honest. watching some news out of the uk as we keep an eye on developments on brexit and footsie having its worst day. >> we just had a result of the arbitration process around this air bus complaint going back some 14 years or so. the arbitrators a hounsinnounci they're entitled to impose tariffs up to $7.5 billion on european products as a consequence of subsidies payed to air bus over speci

, the investor still invested, they're just a little bit more cautious >> i don't want to throw mike wilson, but your own macro strategist offers a daily diet of reasons why ceo confidence is at a three-year low. capex slowing, labor rolling over, inventories are bloated. do you ever have discussions about why he says, even today, we're in the midst of an earnings recession >> we have a lot of discussions, as you would expect. good dialogue between all the different people in morgan stanley. listen, i think, we are seeing the focus on earnings season we'll have to see how earnings play out here. the banks have basically reported and they look pretty good across the board. we'll have to see how the other sectors do people are very focused on earnings but, again, as i say, i see strong u.s. economy slower, but still expanding. and mike and i probably have a slightly different view on opinion here >> finally, jonathan, what'd you guys buy back this quarter in terms of stock how much was it? >> we bought back $1.5 billion, about 36 million shares. >> right, is that -- we can expect that to cont

vice president mike pence blasting the chinese in the speech there at the wilson center. he says the chinese are guilty of human rights abuses, stealing intellectual property and national security issues like spying. setting up what he calls the world's largest surveillance state. but the speech toned down a little bit on the economic future with china saying that the u.s. is not trying to contain chinese development. listen. >> people sometimes ask whether the trump administration seeks to decouple from china? the answer is a resounding no. the united states seeks engagement with china and china's engagement with a wider world. but engagement in a manner consistent with fairness, mutual respect, and international rules of commerce. reporter: the vice president's speech comes on a day the chinese announced what could be called a breakthrough on the nal development and reform commission in china says china ss allow the forced transfer of technology. this goes into effect on january 1st. all of these things have been asked for by the u.s. for the past 19 months or so also t

wilson's war." is there any part of this feel familiar, right mike?i have seen that movie -- >> who did we abandon in afghanistan, how did that work out? >> well, the thing that strikes me about that is the entrepreneurial people that get involved in this. the giulianis of the world that kind of show up because they're looking for personal economic interests and we see that at play. but the thing we really see at play is the breakdown of american foreign policy decision-making. we have no definition of what the american national interest is. instead, we're just kind of making it up, we're going from one crisis to the next, and that is not serving the american people. >> well, it's not clear what is america's national interest anden what is president trump's personal interest, and that's what keeps getting blurred here. mike mcfaul, thank you for coming on, sharing your views and your expertise. >> thank you. >> i'm going to bring the round table back. rick, let me go to this point on, sort of, it's very important to elected republicans to defend the p

think that wastewater management would be -- as mike harvey said, would be a leading -- a leading factor of public health. >> i appreciate that, mr. wilson. you're recognized. >> thank you, mr. chairman. again, thank both of you for being here. thank you for your service. and both of you, i know, make a difference on behalf of freedom and democracy in the world. assistant secretary schenker, what is the bureau doing to counter iranian influence in the region? >> well, first of all, we're implementing crushing sanctions on iranians. this has resulted, denied some $50 billion in oil revenue and is slylikely going to result in constriction of their economy by double digits by the end of 2019. this economic pressure provides them with less money with which to fund their regional proxies, terrorist organizations like hezbollah, which are facing increased pressure because of the lack of funds available to them. that's on one side. we are working with our partners to multilaterally constrain iran's malign behavior. this is building coalitions in the region, whether through the international maritime security construct, also known as operation s

remains within reach in this speech given at the wilson center supposed to be given in june and then delayed because of trade talks, vice president mike pence said that china remains a strategic and economic rival, and that its economic expansion is coming at the expense of civil liberties and the rule of law. vice president mike pence going a step further than president trump on hong kong saying that the u.s. stands with demonstrators there and says that beijing needs to end its intervention which has only gotten worse the vice president also taking an opportunity to criticize nike and the nba and their operations in china and hong kong pence called the nba a wholly owned subsidiary of the chinese communist regime and sharply criticized nike for pulling its houston rocket gears from stores in china says that nike calls itself a social justice champion, but that essentially was not acting like one when it came to the money and the allure of the market of china certainly a withering critique of the xi regime in china, even as the administration continues its negotiations scott? >> thank you we're taking a look at the shares down by a b