how do you dovetail your macro strategy into mike wilson's equity optimism?m, we ultimately work as a -- there is a discussion. at mike'se way i look view of the world is how does it influence people's view toward risk? obviously, equities been the long-duration asset and coming with it quite a bit of risk. if equities are going to be going up, suggests people are comfortable taking on more risk in their portfolios. the western turns to me, which is to say -- the question turns to me, which is to say what do they do with her interest rate exposure, their foreign-exchange books? i have to incorporate that. tom: how do you incorporate it in the bond market right now? i have been talking for a week now about this new compression in two year yield. our bonds priced to perfection? >> the bond market is essentially telling you that while there might be a lot of supply heading our way, there is quite a bit of demand for that supply coming both from central banks as well as from the private sector who need a place to park their cash while the economy is getting back

front and center is mike wilson of morgan stanley. ll of goldman, priya misra, and will be catching up with ubs as well to get you to the opening bell and start the trading week. tom: sounds good. mike wilson has had the market with him with a more optimistic call on american equity. right now we want to speak on oil. it has been remarkable. we make a joke about it that lisa has three oil drums in her living room. bought it at -$25. they paid her to take the oil. i think we have lost tom. he was so overwhelmed by the idea of the oil. at myf it is your shock prescience to have drums of oil in my house. a little bit skeptical of the fumes. it did seem to be up pet that is paying off. tom: we will see. lisa, why don't you bring in julian lee good lisa: julian lee of bloomberg opinion. we are seeing that left to oil markets. a dramatic recovery. 75% in crude prices this month. a lot of it comes as shale producers and marginal producers shut down oil wells and do not drill more. how much more upside to people think there is right now in cru

wanted to get his take, mike wilson my next question is on another comment in today's note about inflation as the back drcbackdr more and more economists are worried about deflation with the double digit unemployment, wages falling off of a cliff we're seeing inflation at the grocery store, but as far as the economy deep in recession, usually deflation is the issue >> it's hard to imagine inflation when we're having a deflationary shock once again, markets are forward looking. we don't expect that to be appearing in the headlines any time soon. but there was a good report today going through a lot of different things setting up in a way that's different than what we've seen for the last ten years. i won't go through all of them we are seeing much more coordination between fiscal policy this time with the monetary stimulus, which is different than the post-financial crisis era. so you have a willing partner to spend that money other trends along the line of deglobalization, populist narratives, nationalist policies, multiple supply chains around the world to deal with pandemics. these are a

talk about the market today first though st citigroup strategist, tobias mar-a-la morgan stanley's mike wilsonns us by phone and steve weiss, managing partner at short tills capital. first to you mike on what drove the action higher and what took a little wind out of the sails toward the close >> yeah, i think the traction in the theme that the economy right or wrong, good or bad, is going to reopen. there's momentum in that direction and the bull case that it goes smoothly and creates a strong initial recovery of the economy can't be refuted soon so i think that was your strong open s&p down half a percent from open to close to there was fading of especially the large cap names. you have to be on alert of what this means if the stocks that got you hear, microsofts and apples and nvi a nvidi nvidias, if they have to take a break, maybe going to leave the index stuck. we're at this round number we jumped above it closed below it. these late day fades haven't really had legs in recent weeks but i think you have to be on alert for the idea that this rally is on the mature side at least in the sho

james bevan will continue to look to sell in may, and including mike wilson of m morgan stanley, remaining optimistic. the rigor -- the greater global strategy analyst from morgan stanley, an interesting cross current as we go through may. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance," from our homes in new york and london as the lockdown put much continues, particularly in london and new york. we hope all of you are informed from your homes. global wall street working from their homes, and we thank you for watching and listening to us. 40ures -35, the vix back to gets my attention this morning. with us, james bevan of ccla, as we consider a more quiet investment in money hopefully leading to long-term gain. james, i have got to ask you a sensitive issue of the gentleman who is 89 years old, is to buffett -- mr. buffett making a splash this weekend, and the bottom line is, berkshire over 10 years, over 20 years, is underperformed the s&p 500. he is supposed to be the oracle of. what happened? -- he is supposed to be the oracle of omaha. what happened? to backom

this is mike wilson now. they're chief strategist who in a note to clients says we remain firmly in the v camp because like a unicorn, u shaped recoveries coming out of a recession do not exist particularly when the recession is so steep like the one we're experiencing today we will continue to employ our recession play book which tells us to increase risk at the market and factor levels bottom line, we continue to think the s&p 500 will be contained by its 200 ta moving average on the up side and 200 week on the down side. that's 2650 in the near term as it consolidated the initial move higher in the new cycle bull market it's a lot of o wowords but it implies we could be due for a sharp upside move. >> i think the thing about the unicornage agag agnalogy is fi. i think an important part is there is a down side scenario there down to the 2650 or 2700 it's kind of our number there. we could see this sharp rebound. i think it's all about your time hoe r horizon. i think when clients are bearish about this mark

warren buffet without a great deal of optimism about things i think it's fair to say morgan stanley mike wilson says this is a pause to refresh we continue to think 2650 on the s&p will be vigorously defended with the two year bear market having ended in march while the 50-week moving average provides resistance we believe this will be a pause that refreshes and necessary for the higher prices we expect later in the year. economic activity has likely bottomed what do you think about that >> so, i think there's a little too much reading of the tea leaves going on with what warren buffet said. he doesn't know. nobody knows sf >> you know what, it's like andrew said in his piece i hear you on that and we're all doing it yes, we're reading into what he said but it's also what he did it's what he did that resonated more than what he said what he said was pretty striking >> right what he did was he got rid of the airlines where he's never been a fan what he's also always said and one of his primary tenents is diversity of portfolio is the enemy. if you look at what his security holdings were in 2008,

they kind of, i think, put the case on the back burner, i believe. >> detective wilson did continue to look for mikeso focus on the 20 other cold cases that needed his attention. and then one day in 2010, came a phone call that would break this case. a confidential informant who said he knew exactly where mike snyder was. >> you would look through the yard, not found anything, not found mike anywhere. not been able to talk to ellen. i'm not going to say this wasn't going anywhere, but it didn't seem to be pointing immediately to any resolution. >> correct. >> and that's why you get this call. yes. >> detective mark wilson was sitting in his office when a most unexpected call came in. the caller, a confidential source, who said he had information on mike snyder. >> who was this confidential source? >> somebody that was a friend with michael sheffield. >> ellen's son? >> ellen's son. >> the man's name was patrick, a 26-year-old motorcycle tech nick. he and ellen's son, michael, had gone to high school together and were close friends. >> he had been living with me in my house, with my son, for a month.

talk to you soon i appreciate that, mike wilson doc, you have unusual activity you have ua? >> you bet, scott. two right now. both of them short term. facebook take a look at fb, buying the end of this week, scott. the 22nd expiration 220 calls with roughly 215, 216. take a look at hpq this is the end of may so in other words two weeks from now, scott. buying the 18 calls with the stock roughly at 16.40-ish i like both of them. i was already long in facebook i added to it and i got hpq during the show. >> good stuff. we have some time to answer questions. stephanie link from christian in new york i'm a new investor purchased new holdings what do you think about those for the long term? >> i love the portfolio. definitely diversified i own intel. it is a recent position post the earnings i think that the company is very well set up in the networking world, cloud they had a very good quarter in data center. the stock trading at tn times earnings and a good yield, as well. >> josh brown, i'm a buy and hold investor with long-term horizon. bought a small position in jpm, jpmorga

think, scott, when you have people that have been basically shut in for this many months, just like mike wilson said yesterday, the reason tom is going to be so right here is that people will get out and they will rage i think ricky sandler was exactly right that this is going to be the raging '20s coming out of this, because people want to be out and so instead of spending on travel, they're going to be spend ing spending on services, on goods and so forth i think that is basically what we're seeing everywhere, where people are coming outside, scott so will that drive markets you bet it will. there's all of this pent-up demand yes, we've been spending at target and walmart and of course amazon, but wait until people get out of their homes, scott, and start spending in these other spots. unfortunately, we all know, there's a lot of small businesses and some very large business businesses like jcpenney that will be going out of business and not coming back. now, jcpenney may get that bailout, not for the brand, but might have amazon stepping into that void. a lot of that will be happening right

up about 200 today we're going to have mike wilson on later from morgan stanley analyst who says a lot that deserve to happen, the pandemic brought them on very quickly and now we're back on track so we'll see. we will discuss that with him a little bit later becky? >> all right in the meantime, fiat chrysler out with the quarterly results this morning phil lebeau joins us and he has more on the numbers. phil, good to see you again. >> hi, becky not surprising, it is a loss and wider than expected loss in the top and bottom line. they missed on both of these remember the fiat chrysler reports its results in euros 30 euros per share versus expectation of 11 euros per share. the revenue coming in weaker than expected. one other important note in the earnings from fiat chrysler, its north american plants, it's confirming that they do plan to start those the week of may 18th we've talked about the big three squeeze in terms of production in sales they have no production until mid may. lower inventories on key models, specifically full size pickup trucks the trucks are in demand the proof o

we have some individuals, we've got, for example, mike wilson over at morgan stanley he's at 3,032.50nks we'll be at 3400 on the s&p by the end of this year it makes a difference. you were of the feeling we were going to grind lower, retest the lows meanwhile, we've had a 30% bounce would you be telling people right now to sell this bounce because we're headed back to the lows that you thought we'd retest or would you say hang on, upgrade in quality and prepare for the markets to move higher have you changed your thinking on the overall ability of the market to go higher? >> so, joe, we are in the third very distinct phase. the last month we've basically gone nowhere with the s&p with a lot more volatility building the last few weeks that follows as you pointed out. early march the 23rd and then a partial reco-ri. the question now is how long can we stay in this phase? what we need to break higher, that's what you're betting on if you think stocks are going to go up is either a significant improvement in fundamentals. we reopen and we reopen well or policy actions that are meaningful

equity strategist mike wilson wrote, "we remain firmly in the unicorn,cause, like a u-shaped recoveriession don't exist." mike joins me now. i have to say, my daughter wasn't thrilled about the unicorns don't exist comment. putting that aside, walk me through your rationale for a v-shaped when it is hard to find anyone that can substantiate that from the data. mike: part of this is just the simple math of it. clearly when you have the kind of decline we are seeing, the rate of change is going to appear to be a v, even if we have a relapse later. let's talk about the alphabet soup we are in right now. l -- we think an l is off the table because of the stimulus we are seeing up amended. there's not going to be a flat recovery and depression outcome, so that is off the table, we think. that leaves you with a v, a u, and a w. -- firstall, av and a -- first ofand a u a u a w looks like a v and until you get the relapse. alix: i wonder, when you are looking at the data, is it the rate of change or the level that you are paying closer attention to? mike: it is both. for now, it is rate of chan

with punch if that's the case, you get a big run, we continue to run a little bit i don't know, mike wilson was talking about a terrific run you came back from the 18,000 dow level, but don't get too cute i think fauci's for real if he's for real, the opening will go okay initially, and then we see i want to see. i don't want to -- i look at the atlantic piece today, wells fargo has to cut its dividend, it sends a chill through my spine. i lived through that already in 2010 and 2009. don't be cocky trim the stocks that are dangerous here there's a real have and have not. i'm not saying you have to go sell regeneron here. i'm thinking that you have to sell some of the cyclicals at least. anybody with a bad balance sheet. i know why people want to sell disney disney disney, david, they want to sell disney >> we talked about it. you know, we've been talking about it for weeks it's getting a great deal attention over the past couple of days, with the downgrade yesterday and the "new york times" piece outlining the challenges sure disney is -- listen, we said this -- i think we said this weeks a

where as for wilson, that may be confirmation that his point of view is correct. mikei think you are right about both of those points. not all frenchmen see the world the way clemenceau does. germany will need time to figure out how it will work. it does not have the traditions that britain and france has paired you need to open the borders up. and are catholic movements youth movements and socialist party movements trying to build these bridges across the rhine river. not to say let's just make up, but to say the fundamental problem of germany was kaiser, it wasn't germany. that comes up at the end of world war ii. the number of bavarians who were like, it was those guys. something similar is happening in world war i as well and there are people who are sympathetic. it is what they call the two germanys argument. there was this germany of beethoven and others that was crushed. it doesn't mean that everybody in france and britain trusts that, but it means that if we are looking for a postwar strategy it is better to leverage that than it is to continue the hatred and t

the markets are much more stable just in general as the vix comes down we had mike wilson on yesterdayhis best case year end target is 3,000 for the s&p. his bullish target 3250. are we really back to where we were just last october before we even heard of this horrific virus? >> we're back there with index levels, not back there remotely with activity. one thing is focus just on incremental moves in a positive direction on a very low base by the way a month ago it was at 30 a month before it went to zero it was at 20 not like we're in a zone where we're way clear. it's way up. so the market is definitely keying on this idea of incremental progress towards something remotely like normal but the effect of the big dominant stocks in this market you can't under estimate them. i mentioned yesterday, you know, a fifth of the s&p 500 down 40% off its high it's the big stocks that seem to be kind of holding things together for now but in a bigger sense you have a lot of stimulus if there's this growing sense what the fed is doing and what treasury has done and what congress has done might pro

under pressure or because he was strong armed, mike flynn confessed because he knew they had him dead to rights. >> sean and new york, you arei on with rick wilson of the lincoln projects go ahead. are stgood morning gentlemen, ie both of you are staying healthy and safe for their families. i want to make a comment mr. ec. wilson. you said that everything thatid trumpen touches is bad. look at our economy. also former vice president biden said that he had that ban in place for people coming fromu china,t he called trump racist this in that. oured t medicalholive experts 'g that ban saved thousands of livesrat in the u.s.. why don't you call yourself astp democrat now because obviously that's what you are? >>firs you are mistaken in your last. point your first point was that everything that trump touches dies. . i think when i wrote that book it was a new york times number one bestseller which will never get old. it and was from the perspective that trump is a destructive force. you can hold on to the fantasytl that trump did something very magical to the economy, he didn't. hee c inherited the economy, the federal reserve kept doing the thing th

mike. >>> abc7 has been celebrating high school seniors who are missing out on so much now, and jesse wilsons graduate from antioch high school and it was not always easy for jesse, and he was picked to meet the and yesterday was his 18th birthday, and my friend reggie decided to reach out to some of his friends to cheer him up. >> you are clearly a person who is driven and passionate and is going to have a lot of amazing accomplishments in his life, and have many opportunities to celebrate them. >> not everyday do you get something like that. i was really happy. thank you. >> it was so beautiful. you have to watch the whole thing. his mom says the video was very touching. both she and jesse are so thankful. >>> we want to give a shutout to another member of the 2020 class, and this is faith thomas and she has been a member of the swim team for four years and her parents describe her as competitive, funny and an amazing sister. she will go to washington state university in the fall where she will study economics and we do ask you not send in any professional photos. >>> coming up next, the n

mike they open? june 1 -15 is when those gears might get turning. that of course, another huge part of the economy here. in napa, wilson walker, kpix 5. >>> we are getting word that sonoma county could soon allow restaurants and wineries to open outdoor seating according to the press democrat. the county health officer believes that with revised guidelines, the county will get the go-ahead from the state by the end of the week. it calls out to the county for comment. >>> also, just in this evening, we are getting closer look at the number of covid cases and deaths broken down by race here in california. it shows nearly 39% of the victims are latino with more than 30,000 cases. 36.6% are quite. 15.4% asian. 6% african-american. >>> today, santa clara county leaders say come one come all for covid-19 testing. free testing available for anyone who feels that they are at risk for the virus, not just those people showing symptoms. one of those testing sites is at powell stadium in east san jose. today we saw people driving up and swabbing themselves with test kits. the push for expanded testing comes as the county also, ret

whereas for wilson that may be , confirmation that his point of view is correct. mike: i think you are right about both of those points. not all frenchmen see the world the way clemenceau does. there are plenty of french people, intellectuals, argue, germanyo will need time to figure out how democracy, what it's about -- time to figure out what it's democracy is going to look like. there are youth movements and socialist party movements trying to build these bridges across the rhine river. say,not to say, lest -- to let's just kiss and makeup, the fundamental problem of germany was kaiser, it wasn't germany, it was prussia. that comes up at the end of world war ii. their kids had gone through world war ii and day number of bavarians were like, it wasn't us, it was those guys. there are people who are sympathetic. it is what they call the two germanys movement. there was this germany of beethoven and others that was crushed by this prussian autocracy, and now that the prussian autocracy has been removed, there is a chance to move forward. but it doesn't mean that everyb

wilson: thank you, madam speaker. i am grateful to s.c. health and alex, and dent, general counsel mike for their donation of 10,000 masks to protect the wuhan virus. distributed them at the west columbia city hall. also joined by election sheriff and representatives of richland, two this was. to chambers ovided of commerce for small businesses represented by carl blackstone columbia, richt skipper, rebecca, marian, tarra, and phil. private sector, not just government, is making a difference. in conclusion, god bless our never forget will september 11 and the global war on terrorism. i yield back my time. tempore: the o gentleman yields back. for what purpose does the gentleman from pennsylvania rise? unanimous consent to address the house for one minute. the speaker pro tempore: the gentleman is recognized, without objection. >> thank you, madam speaker. madam speaker, it's a horrible time our nation is going through now. 00,000 souls perished in this worldwide pandemic and through t all, every day front line workers going to work, frontline drivers and truck garbage collectors and nur

wilson. i appreciate the opportunity to be here, speaking before you on such sacred ground. my name is mikeadrid. i come from california. i want to speak about the cooper union speech that we are honoring this evening. theow that i cannot escape fact that the address here at is fundamentally a moral pronouncement on race in america. it is not just about the evils of slavery, it was about the very notion of our own american identity, and the concept that could beyond whites somehow join in the family of who we are, the idea that those who could not join were born to basic founding principles. history should remember that while the first republican auditionss national -- ambitions were cemented in this great hall, the current president's ambitions were lost in a speech given not far from here as well. the speech at cooper union and the speech at trump tower offer dramatically different perspectives on how republicans race innd spoke ab ouout the defining issues of their days. the speeches could not be more diametrically opposed in speech, in substance, in tone, and in character. they are two

mike. you were talking about the framework of different visions there were already. france had been in the fight since 1914. points did the tensions between wilson and clemenceau and lloyd george already begin to emerge about a national versus an international framework. how to deal with germany. the fact that germany was defeated. germany is not occupied in 1918, 1919. how to deal with that. we will come back with the question of the bolsheviks. but in this case, they were very questions about how that could the apiece. prof. neiberg: sure. godon in 14 point said that was content to give us 10 commandments. lloyd george was asked to performance in the house of commons and he said, i don't think i did some bad considering i have napoleon on -- ande in jesus christ jesus christ himself on the other. so there is tension. so there's that problem. also what fundamentally caused the war. if you are clemenceau, it is the aggression. there's something inherent in the german character and remember, clemens so was the mayor of one of the paris neighborhoods. the problem is there is something different about germany you have to deal with. in lloyd george'