mike wilson is out again he raises his year-end target to 4,000 from 3900. but the bottom line as i saw it if you're at 4,000, you're still looking for a 10% correction so i've got tom lee out there saying everything is going to be great. none of these bad things happen. consumer confidence, don't pay any attention to it. delta variant, we're peaking don't pay any attention to that. we'll have an everything rally mike wilson trying to throw reality on the picture and say, no, we're still going to have that 10% correction. what about that, weiss >> you know, mike wilson is the most interesting strategist out there. he separates the pack and saying, hey, the market will go down the price targets and just saying, hey, here's my view and directionally, this is where i -- >> forget the target itself. entertain the idea of a 10% correction from here i mentioned at the top of the show, 200 days without a 5% -- so much as a 5% pullback in stocks are we kidding ourselves to all that's out there and made common in the months ahead? >> no. you know, we're seeing a corr

mike wilson, morgan stanley chief equity strategist and cio. this line from yesterday, "we have learned of the fomc tolerance for an inflation overshoot that is not as large as durable -- as large or as durable as we previously understood." i think that is important. lisa: it is especially important in light of vice rich clarida basically emphasizing that they are getting closer. they are moving to this. jonathan: getting closer to a deal in paris as well. lisa, i know you want an update from this as well. this from the associated press, lionel messi traveling to france , a person with knowledge of the negotiations has told the associated press. there you go. tom: take the redeye. jonathan: and let's stay there for the rest of the summer. lisa: amen. [laughter] jonathan: lisa wants us gone, clearly. it is a beautiful one here in new york. your equity market unchanged. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president joe biden's big plans for the economy are about to pass their first meijer legislative test. the

-- i wouldn't even want to venture a guess how long it would take that could be face we'll see, mike wilsonere just talking about the possibility of the possibility of discussing it at some point so now it's getting more real. thanks, mike. >> see you. >> bye. >>> when we come back endeavor ceo ari emanual will join us to talk streaming wars. plus retail sales data in the tus e wnhe oth fureardo aadf ose numbers. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc with a hybrid, you don't have to choose. that's why insurers are going hybrid with ibm. with watson on a hybrid cloud they can use ai to help predict client needs and get the data they need to quickly design coverage for each one. businesses that want personalization and speed are going with a smarter hybrid cloud using the technology and expertise of ibm. nice bumping into you. the pursuit is on. the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes, actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients in 52

jonathon: mike wilson of morgan stanley. lisa: they will pay. [laughter] tom: they will. jonathon: you are fired up. i can hear it in your voice. euro-dollar slyly negative at 117.23. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ritika: president joe biden's big plans are about to pass their first major legislative test. a group of sedatives is set to approve a $550 billion infrastructure program. democrats will be able to bypass republicans on the next part, a $3.5 trillion budget resolution that would expand health coverage, childcare, and education benefits. atlantic's fed presidents says the fed should move to taper asset purchases of another strong month of employment gains. he tells us the economy is improving faster than the models predicted. the dashing of the addition of over 900,000 jobs in the last -- he notes the addition of over 900,000 jobs in the last month. 38 states have transmission levels considered high by the cdc. the other 12 states in washington, d.c. have transmission rates in the second-worst category. the european union has deci

mike wilson of morgan stanley yesterday said he thinks people are underestimating margin pressures.hy are companies going to be able to continue to pass along price increases for their inputs to consumers for the foreseeable future? patrick: i think it is actually simpler than that. they pass them along. it takes time. that doesn't mean month-to-month there may not be incremental input costs, and i specify input costs because oftentimes people talk about margin. there's variable which is the input cost pressure, and then depicts market. you are driving higher sales over the fixed cost part of your business. that is your machinery, your buildings, all of those long life assets. that causes significant margin depletion. margin pressure arises when sales begin to falter. as long as sales remain healthy, and demand looks great, the inventory backlog looks phenomenal, we do not see margin pressure coming from any of these issues. jonathan:jonathan: got to jump in with some headlines coming from the national security advisor, saying that opec+ must do more to support the recovery, that op

within that note, mike wilson cites inventory to sales ratio being misleading sales are robust than retail expected and there may not be all this pent-up demand people are anticipating joe, is that an opinion that you share? >> i agree with a lot of what's contained in mike's note the problem is that mike -- he might be a little early on this. the consumer is clearly the number one indicator for me as to when we're going to see a correction that's going to be more than 2.2%, which is what we got last week. it is going to be the ultimately the consumer retrenching and seeing their economic behavior go in the wrong direction. now why do i say i think he's early? because i think that behavior is really tied to what we know to be the wealth effect that's the pricing of assets and also the pricing of housing. you'll see the most dramatic impact on housing when there's an actual rise in rates. i think that's when the housing market will begin to cool. that's when the wealth effect will begin to diminish and that ultimately is where your concern is for the consumer. so it is absolutely the leadin

mike wilson came out in his notes, it goes to this uncertainty, not knowing which outcome will prevails not going anywhere. rates are not going to rise all that much. making so much money. tom: i look at this. what we are really looking for is growthier growth. taylor: he would argue that low interest rates are helping to boost that. my big question is how do you get a cyclical trade with oil that cannot break 70? lisa: growthier value, growthier growth. tom: the price of yield down. lisa: looking ahead. we are going to be talking about a growthier growth clinic with taylor riggs. these expectations are getting more certain and are more bullish. tom: a humbling weekend for the bears. they will recalibrate after the jobs report on friday. we will drive forward your stockmarket conversation, thrilled that robert doll will join us from cross marks global investors. we need to recalibrate on this monday. futures up 13. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) the core is key to losing weight, getting back in shape, and feeling good. introducing the aero trainer, designed to strengthen your core, f

mike: wilson says he hopes -- reggie: wilson says it is his way of giving back to friends and neighbors. it's cute. kumasi: he is cute. mike: i would like to see what he comes up with next. let's see what the weather has next. we have been talking about it most of the week, to enjoy what we have so far, which is pretty clean air and comfortable conditions. that is going to change, starting tomorrow, and it is a sharp change. this is walnut creek. the low clouds are every once in a while letting go with a little bit of drizzle. there will retreat back to the coast and a few high clouds will roll through during the lunch hour. our last day getting a break from the summer heat. fewer clouds, still good for sleep tonight. heat illness, there is a moderate risk inland. we have the high pressure on the left coming in and heating us up. this trough has been giving us this clean and cool onshore flow. because it is moving over the top of us today, our air quality will be the cleanest moving forward, today. that will help us jump into the low to mid 80's, 82 to 83. pretty cool around the pedis -

i know mike wilson, his colleagues some real caution about this great bull market. lisa, i think the end note is really important. he speaks there about beginning to frame up what september 3 looks like and then trying to figure out in some way what jackson hole and what the fed will do. lisa: there have been a number of studies coming out showing the states ended the enhanced unemployment benefits earlier actually saw consumers spend much less. it didn't necessarily get into the labor market that much more quickly. there is a question of how much of a drag on the consumer this will be. it's highlighting that degree of uncertainty at a time when the delta variant, yes it's on the wane in certain states, how much are we looking at the potential for this to dampen some of the jobs market momentum we have seen so far, tom. tom: it will be interesting to see. taylor, your thoughts, on getting to the jobs report and the market that's out two standard deviations plus. it's amazing linkages right now. taylor: it is amazing as you think about where we are in terms of the bu

let's run with the morgan stanley call of mike wilson. is it the labor pressure that is going to push the dial? lisa: that is the key question. if it is the labor pressure, it might be bad for the stock market, but good for the economy , because then people's wages can keep up with higher prices. if it is not, that might be good for the stock market and less good for the economy. jonathan: some labor market data a little bit later this mornings. jobless claims just around the corner. your equity market looks like this on the s&p 500. record high after record high. who's been counting? i think it is 46 year to date, according to kailey leinz. 46 all-time highs on the s&p 500 so far in 2021. up three on the s&p 500. yields advanta and -- yields advancing up couple basis points. your 10 year yield, 1.3539%. lisa: interesting after that 10 year option yesterday. how often are you saying, "coming into monday, record highs," etc. that has very much been the story of 2021. at 8:30 am, u.s. initial jobless claims. also, the u.s. july ppi. this is

coming up later, mike wilson speaking at 1:00 in new york. our markets analyst, a former trader and voice of global squawk, vincent. thank you for joining us. it seemed a dovish speech, but ready to taper. vincent: i am not so sure it is dovish, but rather the fact that the message was made clear to markets that there is a distinct defense between the two, that it is time to remove and removing asset purchases does not mean we are removing accommodation. until we see the lights of the eyes of inflation and jobs returned back to pre-pandemic levels, i think we can still see and the markets are seeing this as the fed is saying, we are not taking away the punch bowl yet. we are moving this extra accommodation level that the markets do not need anymore. alix: we had some clearing out of dollar positioning into this. you are the effects guy. what is new for the dollar? vincent: i think is going to bounce from here. every trader i talked to this morning was like, what the hell. no one got a good handle at this. some real clearing out of positioning

. >> michael farr is your chance a highlighted note from mike wilson yesterday, saying maybe people bought everything they want to buy that's why there is no inventory and supply chain issues maybe not the real reason the u.s. consumer is fading. at least in his opinion. what's your take >> i think what -- part of what wilson is talking about is sort of a pull forward in demand. and that has occurred a bit. never bet against the u.s. consumer spending a dollar more reliably than any consumer around the world, you give an american a dollar and they're going to spend it. savings rates are high earnings and wage growth is out there. and interest rates are still slow you could get a cheaper mortgage and refinance. you could get a second note mortgage on the home there is money out there the u.s. consumer will spend it. and as sfevny said, 70% of the economy is based on that consumer they've got cash they will spend it. >> i want to switch over to tjx, the discount retailer hitting all-time high today. stephanie you own it you're a fan josh what is your take you own leslie, a bit of an off-pric

. >> what comes to mind is mike wilson, i don't know when, saying the thing that could royal the economicupply chain issues and shortages and here we are facing some of these issues now and guy, the fact of the matter is you have to start thinking about the holidays because of these supply chain issues in terms of getting your goods to make sure that you have them on time >> and you're taking me down the holiday path ho not not going to play your reindeer games. you're seeing it when you go to home depot and things aren't on the shelf. some are dealing with it better than others. i will say that just looking at the nordstroms numbers, i would have thought the stock would have traded higher on the back of this. anytime you see 100% sales growth, it makes you scratch your head. i understand what bk is saying i still think dollar gen has room to the upside i think home depot got it off the mat off a really difficult earnings release nordstrom is obviously in a six-year down trend. >> then we had the best buy story today, tim a stellar quarter. no problems there. >> yeah. i mean even yukon co

the same time, i've got morgan stanley -- morgan stanley is 100 bucks as well morgan stanley's mike wilson says the strong jobs report puts the equity valuations on notice. so are we going to contend with that issue perhaps however, the market has been able to absorb almost anything that's hit it with a little pullback a rolling correction not the big one, if you want to call it that mike santoli is with us. senior markets reporter. commentator. whatever your title is welcome. good to see you p. >> i answer to them all. >> but you're looking at that. this push/pull and the ability of the market to withstand a lot. >> it's not that this market hasn't had corrections it just had these asynchronous corrections. they've had their pullbacks, just not at the same time. it's come off as this very harmonious rotation that's had the s&p up 18% this is nasdaq 100 megacap growth broadly speaking against the banks index. what was the issue going into february and march enthusiasm about the reopening, right? banks just ripping higher. yields going higher. what was the biggest fear at that moment? march

but i do want to go back for the viewers when, you know, analysts or strategists like mike wilson or, you know, scott minerd who runs billions of dollars, come out and they have a call that the markets are going to have a correction i do think it's really important for the viewers out there, you know, don't mistake their possibilities with probabilities. and i think it would be really refreshing for someone to come out if they'll have a call on the market, say the market is going to go down 10% or 14%. give us a probability on that. if you haven't done the math, i feel like you're just guessing >> be that person then be that person then. >> pardon me >> be that person. >> sure. i'll tell you. perfect. so since 1980, i've said this a bunch of times since 1980, the s&p has had an average intrayear peak to trough decline of 14.8% since 1980 that's 41 years. so the average peak to trough decline, which once again inside of that includes some really wicked slavs like '87 or 2008, but the average has been 14.7. so i'm always expecting the market in any one year go down 10% plus we haven't h

jason, what do you make of these gains that we continue to log day in and day out morgan stanley's mike wilsonould say last week was the focus on the two mandates, and it looks like obviously we hit the inflationary mandate, but labor is still in focus, on assignment really tuned into what the labor numbers look like this friday, and also i'm interested to see what these labor input costs look like midweek. i do think the market can move higher, more liquidity, lower rates, it's a risk-on bet. that's where my thoughts are here. >> i'm interested in this jobs report, the last one before the extra unemployment benefits roll off. you need a lot to run all of the nation's extras. kate roger has the biggest mover. >> falling 4.5%, driven by its virtual brands, but the company is not immune, with chili's in particular seeing investors softening, and dave & buster's, the firm pointing to softening visits that stock is down about 4.5%. other casual names, denny's and darden all moving lower today. >> thanks very much, kate. those are some pretty built moves. is that a little overdone? >> i think it's

tom: we are going to get to bitcoin with mike mcglone, but first, dave wilson looking at where i canividend. utilities and real estate, discuss. dave: absolutely. you talk about interest rate sensitive stocks, those two industries certainly qualify. they haven't been moving together lately, though. it is something jonathan krinsky at baycrest partners pointed out. if you look at the s&p 500 utilities index tip to its real estate counterpart, the ratio between the two peaked in october. it has come down 25% through last month, and it is hovering near the low as we speak. krinsky is basically figuring it is time for a reversal. in his view, these utility stocks look "ready for a breakout." on the other hand, the real estate stocks are "think tired -- are "looking tired." over the last few months, they were even falling when interest rates were falling, which doesn't necessarily make a lot of sense because they are the kind of shares people tend to buy when they can't get all that much out of bonds. tom: for those of you on radio, utilities are not what we looked at years and years and

wilson, my dear friend. south carolina representing the citadel. -- from south carolina, representing the citadel. >> thank you, mike mccall. i want to thank the afghan veterans. what a difference he made. -- i saw how inspiring it was, the american military working with our allies from poland, bulgaria, estonia, to be there, to see every construction team with people from south korea. what a difference they were making for the people of afghanistan, and how sad this is. but the veterans need to know, first of all, that they did achieve nothing if can attack on the homeland for 20 years -- no significant attack on the homeland for 20 years. we want to thank the different agencies that we saw. building schools, bridges, roads. a remarkable achievement that should be recognized and always appreciated. but i do believe, the war is not over, the war is moving. and it's coming to the united states. god bless you. >> i think we have time for questions. i would like to utilize the cast and crew of "united states of al," while they are here. >> keyser are afghan american veterans, they served -- these are afghan american veterans,

other characters decided to butter up president wilson and contribute that the league of nations was his brilliant idea all by himself, perhaps. >> mikein lake side california, sir max. >> i can keep here all night if you brought a sleeping bag talking about this because it's one of the most complicated issues in history. i think the short points to make was never a good way to become a clichÉ among some students to say that the treaty was a disaster and unfair to germany. there was never going to be an easy way to -- to call an ending to sign a treaty after a war that destroyed 3 empires but the allies did manage to pretty up, they had the worst of all words. they didn't occupy germany as they did in 1945 and they left germany to manage their own affair. and also germany was undamaged whereas france who suffered terrible damage in the war. germany had suffered almost no damage at all. and it was very easy for the german right wing to develop their theme after the war that germany had never really been defeated and stabbed in the back by a global communists and socialists. the ally decision to make germany sign this brutal treaty or a

characters decided to butter up president wilson and contribute to that myth that the league of nations was his brilliant idea all by himself perhaps. let's go mikealifornia. >> guest: i could keep you here all night if you brought a sleeping bag. i think the short point to make it was never good way to become a clichÉ to say that the versailles treaty was a disaster. there was never going to be an easy way to call an ending to sign the treaty after war that had destroyed three empires and let an enormous legacy that the allies did manage to screw it up conference of late. they didn't occupy germany and they left germany. also germany was virtually undamaged by the war. germany had suffered almost no damage at all and it was very easy for the german right-wing to develop their theme after the war that germany had never been defeated and just stabbed in the back by a bunch of socialists. the allied decision to make germany -- this brutal treaty or apparently brutal treaty close to president wilson his involvement. he was repudiated by who was determined not to get involved and because the united states was the only one that voted well from its mor

mike, thanks for holding. >> thank you, mr. hastings. both my question was about the end of world i war i about the various parties they had earlier but coming out of world war i, woodrow wilsonmaybe a french politician said even the good lord, the ten commandments which is pretty good and maybe a britishch said about the end of the war and decided there were 20 million too many germans so not have the treaty to click. >> what is your conclusion? >> just a little bit of a tender in the same spirit about the british, i think perhaps laura gray and other characters decided to butter up our president and contribute to the myth, i believe mason's was his idea all by himself perhaps. >> mike and make psyched california. >> i could keep you here all night if you give me a sleeping bag. i think the short side was never a good way, not a clichÉ among some level one say it was a disaster. it was never going to be an easy way to call and ending after work with the three w empire and enormous legacy but they did screw up. they have the worst worst the couldn't occupied germany and they manage their own affairs are also germany was undamaged by germany was almost no damage at all. it was