we believe mike wilson will not be on the real yield this afternoon. joining us now, mike wilson of morgan stanley. we have had a whole stretch of insulation. would you say this is a nuance within able market wrapped around a income, commodities, etc. or are we at a point of a major change in the vectors to 2025? >> we have had that view for a while. this was the catalyst to move us out of the world we have been in for 20 years. a lot those things were happening the pandemic. d globalization, that train had already left the station. pandemics are typically inflationary so that was the perfect foil to get the transition and it has begun. normally it happens when you see big trends changing. that is what we have seen in all the inflation indicators. my best guess is that it will settle down. it will be a long journey ahead. it will take us 35 years. it will be a slow moving train. by the dip -- buy the dips on inflation. jonathan: are you saying it could drift towards that upper level, a 20% move? mike: last time we chatted about this it was prior to the

fire, 10% correction ice, maybe 25, 20% is what mike wilson's been talking about. ubs, quote, equity market sentiment was hurt by a combination of worries over growth, central bank policy, fast rising yields and the fiscal impasse we believe such concerns are overdone we expect the rally to resume. what do you think? fire and ice or a resumption of the rally? >> not to beat a dead horse, but many of us over the last couple of months have talked about these rolling corrections and joe's been a vocal advocate of that thesis. i think that's what's going to continue so i see something in between. i think that we are experiencing this diminishing concern about delta. i think that's leading folks back to the epicenter stocks some of the more cyclical stock, but based on the market, the way that the indexes are constructed, it's going to be difficult for the market to rally from here with tech under so much pressure i think we need to see alleviation on the pressure and yields i think there could be corrections that are upwards of 1 15, 16, 17%. we've seen that in faceboo

they could justify those valuations going into year end. >> we'll see the next time we talk to mike wilson. we'll put him on the spot. i can tell you two firms that are not. ubs. we're more convinced by the positive stance in equity investors today. our highest conviction call, better times ahead stocks likely to move higher so again, stocked seem virtuvirtual n vulnerable at the beginning of last week. rallying off declines today. is that the conversation we need to be having now >> well, i think that it's obvious that bounce, that the market always bounces off the dips the question is that are you buying the market or buying stocks because stocks would be a different story. there's still plenty of stocks that haven't bounced that haven't gotten back up to new highs or a couple of percentages. it could just be underneath. because what is underneath has been these rolling corrections of 10 and 20% or 25% as you pointed out last week in the semis. that's where i'm hunting so the market can do what it wants to do. i don't expect it to change now. i'm looking at earnings as the companies repo

mike wilson will join us later. for a 10% move, base case, and leaning toward something bigger. we get the lien in just a moment -- lean in just a moment. tom: everyone on the street sounds like lisa abramowicz. jonathan: i have seen no after no. sounds like southside capitulation. lisa: joined by journey. you've already seen so much of a drawdown in specific stocks. what is being priced in -- and you keep pointing rightly so to bed, bath & beyond. that would explain the more than 20% move in a company that some say seems like it is in the crosshairs with supply chain issues. jonathan: same with nike, analysts called it. the numbers drop that the stock reacted to it. mike wilson coming up, a man to listen to. equity markets turning around. the s&p up around 13 points. yields unchanged, 48.75. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for t

farmer john says everything is great and we're not in a tenuous position mike wilson says with all due respect, farmer jim, i don't know what else you've been doing on the farm, but something's not right. who's right? who is right >> well, i'm going to start with as the wise peter lynch said more money has been lost trying to predict corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves so let's start there i think that as we get later in the year, mike is obviously a very smart strategist. he's been calling for this correction for a really long time and this could be another 2017, though, when the peak to trough decline in the s&p was about 3.5%, and so we got it in 2018, so i think his fire and ice analogy has legs, what he's saying i do think that it's important to realize as an investor the red has been driving down the hallway on cruise control at 90 miles an hour for -- since march of last year >> i thought you were going to say forever. >> kind of forever kind of, since 2009, right it's really when qe started. they tried to pull it back and then we started again. you can

what a great job mike wilson has done with someone like ben landlord who has said get on board. yesterday, we had a guest who bar belt the strategy. jonathan: cuddled that index. hug it tight. the s&p coming into tuesday, we had 16 points. coming up later, a conversation with david solomon of goldman sachs sitting down with francine lacqua. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> boris johnson says global climate talks the u.k. is posting at the end of the month be extremely tough. the british prime minister made a last ditch call to world leaders for concrete steps to protect the planet. he says nations attending the cop 26 summit must have made promises to/emissions -- to slash emissions. >> we need to respect growth in temperature to 1.5 by the end of the century. we think we could do it, but we are going to need to see real action. >> johnson is hoping to use the summit in glasgow to showcase that u.k.'s leadership and climate change. the u.k. will allow heathrow airport to increase ticket surcharges by as much as 56%. heathrow has been seeking to increase charges buys much as 95%. airlines

we heard from morgan stanley, mike wilson morning we could see fresh paint, a 10 percent correction or so when it comes to tech stocks. this as we expect the s&p earning season doing little for inflation fears as we see pent up consumer demand fizzle out. he thinks the earnings estimates are too high. haidi: we have been watching when it comes to geopolitical risk that this conversation between china skeptical met and national security advisor excel event, this is a long meeting, hours. it was fruitful, more meaningful and substantive than previous talks. there were plans for president biden and president xi jinping to hold a virtual meeting before the year end and that could happen in the weeks or months to come. this also coming amid them criticizing china over its taiwan moves. a contentious relationship but it seems like there is more movement toward discourse. shery: more communication between the u.s. and china, also more in china, -- congress. republican leader mitch mcconnell offering a deal to raise the debt ceiling into december which will alleviate the immediate risk of a de

this goes to mike wilson. then there is dwyer, we will not talk about tony dwyer. to lori calvasina, i know you have her coming up, all of the nuances lead from the massive ambiguities of what will happen. jonathan: lori likes the banks and will be talking about it all week. what i asked mike was do you like the banks on higher rates regardless of if it drives high rates. the move we saw at the start of this year through the first quarter, that was on accelerating growth expectations. every single week it was upgrade after upgrade to the outlook to gdp in america. it is different this time around. we are seeing higher yields without a corresponding pickup in growth expectations. i'm joined understand if the bank trade still works in that environment? michael: i think it does. i think that rate move is important. it is an impressive year considering rates came back down. my move of the move back down in interest rates is chariman powell deciding despite the strong economic data, we had not made substantial firmer progress. that is what prompted the bond market to ra

should we be, as mike wilson says, pricing and more potential for this to impact earnings heavily in third quarter? norman: if we look in the first half of the year, especially commodity oriented producers, margins expanding and prices rising, but cost recent -- reasonably contained. that was attractive. as we move forward, we see more price pressure come through and that will limit their ability to drive not only topline growth but for margins, and that's one of the reasons why we think earnings growth will taper off toward year-end. dani: are you avoiding then those type of material companies? norman: we are, we are spending a lot of time focusing on quality earnings. places where not only they will not be exposed to the same type of margin pressure talked about, but where we have a lot of visibility on the top line, both in terms of unit growth and their ability to pass long prices that are rising in some cases. quality earnings is our focus as we move into 2022. dani: i have to wonder how much of this is already in the market. do you think these sorts of constraints, the supply c

jonathan: mike wilson of morgan stanley pointed something out to me last week, along the lines of sayingt is easier to forecast five to seven years than it is to say next year. next year specifically is really difficult to call. lisa: one of the key aspects of this is that inflation could potentially dampen demand, especially if you get this fiscal cliff. in the meantime, everyone who comes on the show talks about looking at companies that have pricing power, so what does that mean we have price for those companies? jonathan: we are passing it on to the consumer, and so far they are eating it up if it is ice cream. i think everyone is on board with that. pay a little bit more for the ice cream. that's my view. i like pistachio. i like strawberries and cream. tom: i am going to tear up. jonathan: you can get a nice olive oil ice cream. bear with me on that. over in brooklyn. tom: what? lisa: i've had that before. it is actually quite good. jonathan: i will take you down there, ok? tom: i've got to go below 59th street? jonathan: have you ever been to brooklyn? tom: no. jonathan: i have. t

jason snipe, it feels like we began the week talking about this new call from mike wilson and an addendum to a call that he already had calling for fire and ice, a greater than 10% correction and here we are today with that list that i made that looks pretty good. tom lee says today the case is strengthening for a year-end rally. mike santoli, our chief markets commentator says his mystery broker >> here's what he tweeted. the mystery broker backs off his call for a correction and now expects stocks to move higher and cites the market's resilience and cites the energy and eps forecast dip, near textbook technical bottoming process and coming seasonal strength is this the week that did it are we back thinking that the market can move higher >> yeah, scott it's a great question, and i have to go back to what john just said. what i'm looking at, the cpi and ppi numbers were a little more tame off the higher base and inflation is here and unemployment numbers were tough from september, but claims data this week had a two-handle on it and it was the first time we've seen that since march 2020

i know morgan stanley, the guy mike wilson says we'll go down 20% but their behavior is even more bullish than individual investors. >> absolutely. i love everything gary said. i have no idea if my face was on the screen but i was smiling the entire time. what gary really said there are a lot of areas for the market primed for a great q4. i think sustainability is showing us that it is there. earnings are coming from places that were not strongholds in 2020. so we're seeing a cycling through which is indicative of a more broad rally and the broadening of this again is showcasing that you know, the market has room for us through the end of the year. there was a lot of people left behind as asset prices inflated early in 2020. and i think we're seeing more of that then able to participate now in late 2021. so all very positive things going into the end of the year. charles: gary, let's talk abouth stocks, the reason why i like them so much is because if they keep growing better than the market, some of these names that we talk about all the time growing 50, 100%, they usually cut through al

these stocks to the overall market if you're going to avoid the deeper correction that the likes of mike wilson continued to call for, you better not have a further breakdown in these names. >> that's right. and that just further proves the point i made earlier i don't think we'll make new highs. we can't really make new highs unless we have strength in the big-cap names and i don't think we'll see that through the end of the year and the fed still tapers regardless of some of these headwinds and when tapering occurs that will raise the long end of the curve which continues to pressure these names, but it does bode well for the things that are sensitive to the shorter end of the curve and financial and we're talking about buying the dip and i would buy the dip on financials in this space, but those big-cap tech names over the long term, still positive on tech still positive on health care, but over the next 90 days i don't think that this is a buy the dip scenario i think this is a scenario where we need the average stock to come back and drive the indexes to a point where we're still positive

mike wilson, once again, he's saying like the worst is coming.nk that chevron at 5.1%. at one point it was down but for the most part i'm looking for are companies that i don't need to trade, that you get in because wall street is downgrading newcorps from 120. what does goldman want >> i love when you go after the analysts >> well, i didn't mention by name i'm a kind man i'm a good - >> they're analysts. >> i don't think there's anything wrong with downgrading except that it's ill-advised >> it's wrong. >> analysts shouldn't have their own qr code either >> the listen to that goldman newcorps call. >> before you came on i checked to make sure the bengals hadn't played since the last time we talked >> a lot of football's playing on sunday, some on monday. and some thursday. it's a pro thing >> jim cramer, thank you always a pleasure. we look forward to the show. jim has the ceo of levi. also you can learn more about cramer's stock picks and sign up for the investing club or just point your phone at that qr code on the screen and it will take you

if you act mike milt wilson of morgan's danley is the ladder and says the only firearm in history thehas seen 80% of a down% and at some given point and get there hasn't been a trial down. first of all, is wilson right? will we see a 10% hit in this market before the year is over? >> i agree, but that's because monetary policy -- i don't see that happening at. charles: this notion that whenever-- are you one of the folks that says as long as the fed is printing money the market goes up and when they stop printing the market goes down? >> if the fed stops printing money i don't think the market stops. charles: so your expertise among many expertise is finding these companies, inc. and many in and eventually i think getting does the public markets have been interesting. on the one hand ipos have been up. in the last two days we have had two superhot spac. at the donald trump spac of a thousand%, mind-boggling. i know there are a lot of young investors i mean could this thing revitalize the whole spac-- i didn't think you are a fan of that. >> spac were on fire at the beginning of the ye

we saw this when the dow was down 900 points, mike wilson said at the beginning of 20% drop, i had great that same day was the complete opposite and so we think we will see a real melt up in this fourth quarter because ultimately all these folks that have their clients position defensively and calling for this crash is going to be proven wrong in my opinion is a lot of money has to change the cyclical trade. are we overbought? more than likely but we are going higher on the cyclical trade, energy trade and financial between now and year end. next year is the year to worry about a double did drop. stuart: a lot of negotiating going on in the white house, moderates and progressives and the president all trying to figure out how much they are going to spend. supposing they get the full $3 trillion spending plan on top of the other, a $5 trillion deal, suppose they did that. how would the market take that? >> that will break the back of this inflation problem. you may get a bump but the biggest risk is inflation and when you throw money on top of what we have right now you are going to just

mike darda. right now we go to double declining david wilson, looking for investment, capex, and the rest, and tontage of a phrase -- and to take a phrase, double dividing divestments. dave: companies will have to save money wherever they can. you figure from there that things will actually get newer. i say that because the government puts out an annual figure on the age of fixed assets, buildings and so on. tom: i am a fixed asset. ferro isn't. continue. [laughter] dave: that number, every year since 2001, and since two years longer, the record since 1940. tom: this folds right into the infrastructure debate in washington. that overlays right on top. dave: look at it from the company perspective. capital spending, if you look at the first half, peaked in 2019, and it kind of drifted at lower levels since then. so the issue is when you get a renewed interest in investing in fillings and equipment and whatnot. tom: dave wilson in his earnings season over the next three weeks. right now, oil. stuart wallace years ago deciding that we would have the best oil team worldwide, and part of that is will

mike garcia a great friend of the reagan library, congressman? california governor in the history of the state of california wilson former first lady of california governor gayle wilson. [applause] bryant from california state assembly woman said that office, brian. >> ventura county supervisor bob uber members of his team, bob. [applause] connie and gavin and joanne because a bird, two of the cochairs of the ansa nancy reagan centennial committee. author karen and her husband paul richter. chad fagan our sculpture is to unveiled the marquette of mrs. reagan earlier today. [applause] doctor should net that weatherspoon and rebecca naegele in their wonderful foster grandparents. [cheering] [applause] hometown favorite. lisa ceo of the boys and girls club of pasadena. [applause] eunice davis whose husband hal david was a dear friend to nancy reagan. [applause] of course the hard-working and dedicated volunteers of the reagan library who makes your visit in our work so rich and memorable. and finally of course our reagan library visitors to whom we are so grateful to see after such a long journey back to normal. [applause] thank you all for joining

mike: a lot of respect for the veterans. geno smith waiting for that opportunity and getting it. it's hard to win a prime time game even without russell wilsonive seattle credit. down 14-0 going to halftime and nothing going but they slugged their way back into the game. >> mike: a terrific series of sunday night games. t.j. watt forces a fumble. devin bush comes up with the recovery and chris boswell who had a couple big kicks on the night is good from 37. ben roethlisberger gets another win. and geno smith and what might have been with the seahawks team. seahawks 2-4. 23-20 pittsburgh. t.j. watt, the hero. the postgame show coming up after this. . >>> a terrific game here in pittsburgh on this sunday night. seattle was down 14. charged back into it. but the steelers in overtime 23-20. the big turnover forced by tj watt. outstanding defensive player. as good as there is in the nfl. and he is top of the list of the players of the game. ben roethlisberger, also, and harris with 127 scrimmage yards. tj watts with michelle. of the game. ben roethlisberger 29 of 40 and 229 and najee harris 127 scrimmage yards. t.j. watt is with michele tafoya. >