mike wilson, thank you very much for joining us tonight and talking through it all tim, what's your take now that we've flushed out this conversation a little bit with mike what do you think of his points? >> mike is right to be cautious about more fed i believe we're certainly going to have to deal with more fed and, therefore, i worry about an environment where central banks are all saying the right things. it's interesting you're only seeing more of the emerging market banks continue to hike rates aggressively and that tells you about people that are very fearful of inflation. i think the fed is moving faster on the taper not necessarily because they're so excited about growth but they too are worried about inflation. so i think that's the thing that we have to be careful of i think the eps revision dynamic may be the place i'm most worried but i would drill into the places where he is reasonably constructive on next year and talking about multi nationals. think of a coca-cola, a raytheon, even walmart on there as you get into slightly more value oriented companies that i think are le

mentioned, josh, and it feels like your bull case view is si si simpatico, and i'll introduce you to mike wilson >> mike, to me the nuance here that so many people are struggling with including the fed itself is how much of this gets cured by the supply shocks going away versus how much of this remains and not only sticky, but continues to increase, and i would say that i'm probably neutral on the second part of that but i've never been more certain of anything that the supply side of that has peaked, is in the process of peaking and is now going to become a whole different animal next year your report cites this phenomenon of double ordering. we will find out in january or february how many people were just ordering and ordering and ordering and not even expecting to get filled on shipments and then when they do, all of a sudden discounting comes back. you can southeasternly see that at the apparel retailers that you consider to be over earning and can you talk about that phenomenon and that could be a mark shock that nobody is prepared for >> yeah. that's exactly my scenario which would make t

jonathan: saying repeatedly -- kailey: mike wilson is interesting.ught the market would and lower and with the high-end of the forecast for 2021 at 4400 that is where mike wilson thinks it will end next year. it will be interesting to see if he is more right next year. jonathan: if you are betting against the market, can you bet against these big names? apple heading for a fifth straight daily game. they drew a line in the sand. let's get to kriti gupta for more. kriti: share price of 182 point $86. -- 182.86. -- 20% decline last fall when it hit $2 trillion. the question is does that mean when you hit $3 trillion you will see another drop? yes big tech believes the benchmarks, you could be seeing one today, it leaves corrections. could this signal a macro correction? kailey: i hope tom is watching or listening. matt miller is talking, we have the chart. in new york city they started shutting down stores. how indicative is that of a macro story? kriti: it brings back the summer of 2020 while we were dealing with the lockdowns. big hit to demand and t

morgan stanley, from mike wilson over the weekend. lisa, your response? a new covid variant because rockets, but we view that as secondary to the real culprit -- lower valuations, tapering tightening. lisa: to me, that rings true. this rings more true than omicron. omicron seems to be fading from the market. jonathan: not the index level correction. you're going to have to say way more than that to win lisa back. lisa: thank you, tom. jonathan: up 63 on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: the u.s. and europe considering the tough financial sanctions against russia if they invade ukraine. the largest bank would be targeted, along with the country's ability to convert rubles. president biden mate felt sanctions today when he and vladimir putin have a video call. russia has denied it plans to attack ukraine. omicron has led to strict -- restrictions. france has shut down nightclubs for four weeks. new york city has a private business vaccine and date. hospitals not overwhelmed so far. -- that signaled a possible default by the struggling developer. a repub

the conversation brings me over to mike wilson of morgan stanley who was really out front saying we are later in the cycle than everyone thinks. that is one of the reasons he has been consistently bearish. he sees the s&p ending next year at 4400 p right now, we are trading around 4642. the 10-year yield up to basis points to $1.4823. stay with us for coverage of these quieter markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. the biden administration is ramping up plans to fight the pandemic at the omicron variant continues to spread. the white house expects to take delivery of 4 million courses of covid-19 treatment. they are awaiting the green light from the food and drug administration. that authorization could come as soon as today. israel says it will give a full dose of coronavirus vaccines to people over the age of 60 and medical personnel. it is the first country to do so on such a widespread basis, as the omicron variant spreads across the globe. they are holding a nationwide inoculation drive. but there is not enough data s

visit indeed.com/hire >>> do not miss that man right there, mike wilson morgan stanley chief u.s.orrow at noon eastern. a lot to talk about fed pivots he has made a bit of a pivot of late we will talk to him about his market outlook for the remainder of the year and into 2022, and we can't wait to do that we have been waiting a while for that and i'm looking forward to that >>> steve weiss, final trade >> geo logistics down 8% and downgrade by loop. loop upgraded the stock today to a buy. it is compelling cheap special company. >> joe terranova >> scott, whee the long-awaited breakout in abbvie, up to 127. if you want to put a stop at 120, that's fine i'm staying in for the long term this stock is cheap, p/e and high double digits >> brenda? >> paypal. one of the most innovative companies that has been a huge expectations reset no one will be buying this to window dress to your end, i think we revisit during the new year. >> doc, i need a quick name. >> peloton, scots. big bounceback coming. peloton. >> good stuff. thanks, everybody. "the exchange" starts right now. ♪ >>> thank yo

. >>> mike wilson's point is that- >> powell and the industrial number was so hot. so, yeah, i think that wilson is really right about that. that just led to -- that could be the program selling that i'm talking about, which is, you know, be long nasdaq under the fed changes its mind, and sell nasdaq and buy jpmorgan. it's almost like there's -- opening it up and oh, selling nasdaq via spac, okay, i'll do that, but i did see this happening in 2000 in april many there's some people around who saw that it was vicious. >>> we're going to talk about analogs. of course, we'll cover what bitcoin did over the weekend as well still to come, a closer look at the dip in chips as well nvidia, micron, taiwan semi, as we kick off a busy week on "squawk on the street. don't go away. what's strong with me? i know when i'm ready for a rest day. so i can be ready for anything... tomorrow. find out what's strong with you with fitbit sense and daily readiness. >>> cnbc is launching a new index today. it tracks the stocks that younger consumers and investors are most interested in we b

soaring for the second day with the s&p posting its biggest gain since march we'll be joined by mike wilsonrecord close today. every single name up more than 2% but is it too late to

. >> mike: let's bring in "washington examiner" political and investigative reporter, sarah wilson. >> thanks for having me. >> mike: from the wall street editorial board, "democrats tried to rush build back better into wall without policy debate or compromise. the left thought it could do so by beating the living crap after mr. manchin, as he put in a recent interview. he has no reason to apologize that a bill to transform america be subject to congressional order." how do you assess that point? >> i think progressives and president biden never really had any leverage over joe manchin. i think it's a little bit ironic that the criticism you are hearing from a lot of members of the progressive left, particularly members of the house, is that manchin sort of betrayed them and tricked them into splitting up the bipartisan infrastructure bill, which was their only claim to any sort of leverage at any point in this process, from the spending package and passing them separately, suggesting that manchin somehow lead them into a bait and switch to do that. when manchin is really the only d

mike rogers. and jill doherty, former moscow chief and fellow with the woodrow wilson center. takeaway from this call, a second call happening in a short period of the last call they had >> yeah. i think this is putin trying to take the pulse of where the united states is, where the biden administration is, where he thinks nato will be in this whole equation. and right now putin is going through his checklist what he can tolerate with economic sanctions versus what he can get out of some military action in ukraine. remember, she's had a good run here. he did military action in this country of georgia. he still owns two provinces there. he has crimea. he's still been disruptive in the west part of ukraine. a new shock troupe called cyber attacks and disruption. all of that plays in the favor, in his mind, in the decisions he's going to make in the next days or weeks. >> help us get inside putin's head here. he knows the u.s. is not going to get militarily involved directly should he invade ukraine. so when he said it were to be a colossal mistake, why does he think that's a str

other characters decided to butter up president wilson and contribute that the league of nations was his brilliant idea all by himself, perhaps. >> mikein lake side california, sir max. >> i can keep here all night if you brought a sleeping bag talking about this because it's one of the most complicated issues in history. i think the short points to make was never a good way to become a clichÉ among some students to say that the treaty was a disaster and unfair to germany. there was never going to be an easy way to -- to call an ending to sign a treaty after a war that destroyed 3 empires but the allies did manage to pretty up, they had the worst of all words. they didn't occupy germany as they did in 1945 and they left germany to manage their own affair. and also germany was undamaged whereas france who suffered terrible damage in the war. germany had suffered almost no damage at all. and it was very easy for the german right wing to develop their theme after the war that germany had never really been defeated and stabbed in the back by a global communists and socialists. the ally decision to make germany sign this brutal treaty or a