that is why i raised an eyebrow to mike wilson's forecast. dani: it is fascinating that we are seeing the economists capitulate first. the contrarian economists are the ones saying we don't see a recession anymore and strategists have yet to catch up. unclear when that will change. one thing that is not helping sentiment this morning is the top story, again, the credit rated -- rating agencies out for blood. it was pitch last week on the u.s. deficit in late yesterday, it was moody's lowering credit rating on 10 different small and midsized u.s. banks. this is not the big lenders but basically citing real estate and other pressures in industry. again, it is having a market white impact. valerie: they cited various reasons why they chose to downgrade or reassess this 27 u.s. banks but they had a key theme through them. first, it was higher funding costs which we know have eroded off and ability. we saw that in the earnings. a lot of the regionals showed a net interest margin compression, meaning they are paying more for deposit. they are less

look at what's happening with mike wilson. it's not just mike wilson. we talked about it earlier. you got hedge funds to because of the uncertainty in the markets. you had a great july. you coming into august. what do you do now. that's the question of the day. should you chase this market. should you chase other assets. sophia bloomberg markets today in london. bloomberg news joining us from new york. what do you think. you had an incredible july, a lot of multiple expansion in the equity markets. now what do you continue? >> if you are someone who's had a great july. a lot of people missed out. people were underweight equities going into this year and it made a lot of sense. we had a higher interest rate environment and that has changed. yet the s&p is near record levels prayed a lot of people missed out in july. if you are lucky enough to chase that in july, i think it makes sense to not chase it now. you've already locked in those gains. i think if you are chasing you've already messed up. you're already behind the markets chasing something that doesn't make sense. yet it's ki

that conversation with mike wilson just about 18 minutes away.equity strategist at morgan stanley put out a note basically a tripping much of the move this year and maybe the pushing out of recession calls on fiscal policy. lisa: this was the most interesting thing to read. people will say mike wilson, how can he say anything? the reasoning is the most interesting. the idea that never in the history of this country have the increased fiscal spending at a time the unemployment rate was the slope and sing the debt increase. this is a game changer. how does he parlay that into the valuation call. the multiple call. tom: i go further and say this is not pandemic stimulus, this is infrastructure stimulus. republicans would say it a stealth stimulus of funding. i do not belittle the call. i think mike wilson is onto something and some portion of our buoyancy that some feel is based on washington. jonathan: he has a great chart in that research. it is the deficit to gdp. on the left side is unemployment down at the bottom, and we are off the bottom to t

that's what mike wilson thinks, and retail, the gap of nordstrom's offering a picture of disappointment with sales, but shares are rallying as investors are giving the new ceo who came from mattel the benefit of the doubt that he might be the person to turn things around. there is a big task ahead of him. >> let's go right to jackson hole. >> we are prepared to raise rates further, if appropriate. we intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down towards our objective. based on this assessment, we will proceed carefully if we tighten further or instead hold policy rate constant in a way -- and await further data. >> turning from jackson hole is our host. joe, it seems like the reaction here is depending on where you start if you are a hawk. you see some hawk's notes or you may see some dovish notes. >> it really is. i love the way you described it. a little dovishness. a little hawkishness. a little bit of neutral. but i think there is a spot on -- if you article is to maintain maximum optionality. if your goal is to say, we

we have mike wilson of morgan stanley coming out today saying investors if they begin to doubt economic resilience we could see sentiment start to weaken. goldman sachs sees this pullback as being short-lived. that hedge funds are positioned in a way that suggests there is more room to boost equity exposure. a lot of people i spoke to her not so concerned about the pullback. they are seeing this as a potential opportunity to step in after they missed out on the rally in the first half of the year. hsbc said they are waiting for jackson hole and a potential sotloff to buy the dip -- sell off to buy the dip. annabelle: we are focus on china's economy. it really is this issue around china's ballooning debt loads. taking a look at the total debt as a percentage of gdp. last year at 360%. this is painting a big picture. we are seeing symptoms of excessive debt coming through because you sought to fall the property sector. country garden one of the ones we focused on. also there is stress in local government financing vehicles. these are symptoms of excessive debt. it is becoming more difficu

we've heard from mike wilson at morgan stanley talking about how this signal, the fact that nvidia failedo boost the overall market is a technical signal that this really is exhausted. do you agree with that or not? >> when you look at the chart of pe multiples, it tells you something. we have seen an increased interest since -- for the past three weeks since we came out recommending that protection on the triple q option with puts or put spreads were naked puts. that has been remarkably profitable. our clients have benefited from that perspective. that was because we thought tech was overdone year to date with a 50 basis point appreciation at that point. in the macro context now, with the fed trying to persuade markets to believe that it is not going to change the 2% target, that it is serious and has a strict interpretation of its dual mandate, that to me says 2024 is unlikely to be as much of a boom for this sector as we saw in 2023. ed: we're a couple of hours post powell. it is too early to declare victory on inflation and they will be careful about raising rates but the conclusion i

get ready for it i am >> mike wilson, he says in part this rise in rates should start to call into question equity valuations that's something we were talking about earlier on "worldwide exchange." alphabet on the lower end of the phag magnificent seven. >> this year has been about multiple expansion earnings have not followed through yet. what we are expecting coming through 2024 -- >> you said yet, though. >> yet i do see follow-through coming in through 2024, and there will be a real focus on profitability. this year will be about cost cutting, especially in the tech orbit. i think you will start to see follow-through we saw as an example with amazon, strong quarter, efficiencies and cost cutting started to play out. >> we did not say that with meta we plan to spend more on a.i. and data centers when you say yet, we are going to see earnings coming up at the next quarter that will justify the earnings what is the yet? >> to jimmy's point, seasonably we are in a tough period i think the fourth quarter will be strong and we will see the follow-through into next year. and also thinking abou

morgan stanley, mike wilson, issue ma occult book, i do not know if they are for us or maybe they may not be for us, it is interesting to see one shock after the other. we are in august, we have a lot more months until the year, it will be fun to compare how they started off at how they are ending in december. haidi: never a dull moment. the latest on the markets are of course a big story we are following in politics, donald trump has been indicted on federal charges, accused of conspiring to overturn the 2020 presidential election result. jodi schneider twins us from washington. what is key about this indictment? what are the takeaways from these charges? >> first of all, as you know, this is the third criminal indictment we have seen of the former president. this one has to do with the 2020 election, it has significance beyond the indictment itself. as that was such a relief politically explosive event here in washington. these charges reflect that. they are conspiracy to defraud the u.s.,! drop an official proceeding, obstruction and an attempt to obstruct an official proceeding an

reporter: back in the south bay maintenance director mike wilson is expanding the tree canopy is a priorityto step up our tree planting process so that 15 years from now we have decent shade trees so people have a place to get out of the sun. reporter: it is all part of critical planning with new strategies evolving along with strategies for climate change. larry: just to give you an idea of the scope of the work being done in santa clara county, managers told us they plan to close to 600 trees last year. kristen: and they have ongoing planting goals over the next several years. with t find out the impact of climate-related threats such as fire, heat, flooding, and high wind in your neighborhood. look up your zip code tomorrow. check it out. larr sandhya: we have thunderstorms that have developed, multiple might think strikes -- lightning strikes near mount hamilton. eight lightning strikes so far, and heavy rain associated with it. that cell is holding together for the time being, but if it does not will together you will not see much out of it. keep an eye on it in case the southern and e

guy: interesting listening to mike wilson talking about the s&p touching its 200 day moving average.on back to commodities. rebecca was talking about what's happening with gasoline prices earlier on. i want to cover this through the lens of what's happening in ukraine. this weekend drones, ukrainian drones crippling a russian naval vessel and an oil tanker. they attacks put russia's commodity exports at risk. i want to talk about what that would -- impact that would have. joining us on the phone to talk about this one. mark can you talk about how exposed russian commodity exports could be if we see a continuation of the scenes we see on screen in front of us. >> there are two things to think about here. first of all is just the scope. this war has moved into the sea. it's affecting russian assets as it has for some time. the black sea is incredibly important. these are the two largest grain exporters in the world, each exports haven't been really affected but if they are, virtually all of it -- all the grain exports go out via the black sea. the second is you got 15 or 20% of russian

. >> mike wilson has made that part clear over the past few quarters jim, good to talk to you see you next time. >> back to bad news is bad news. we'll have to get over to apple this morning they are getting ready to release earnings this afternoon. that is expected to post another quarterly decline in revenues. steve kovach joins ahead of that report. >> the third quarterly revenue decline in a row for apple that's what we're expecting. that's largely due to tough demand through the macro environment through the first half of the year and it's not enough to make up -- despite the growth we've been seeing in countries like india, indonesia, they're talking about that story of growth in emerging markets but not enough to make up for what we've seen following demand in china and the united states we are expecting some green chutes and return to growth as we saw from meta and google last week is coming back to the app store and possibly a resurgence in gaming. like you were saying earlier in the show, julia, it's the outlook for the current quarter and beyond that everyone will be hangin

i want to point out mike wilson over at morgan stanley who got it right last year and maybe not as right this year, and kind of came out and issued a bit of a mea culpa, and he points out that nvidia will be a big test this week and the price action may be more important than the guidance, and in other words we don't think outstanding results from nvidia will change the complexion of the more recent price action for the derivative plays or the broader market like we did back in may. joe, i will look to you here. >> yeah. >> this is one where you own nvidia, and i am not saying you would trade in or out of it because of one earnings report that is coming up, and jim calls this a position that you have to be in but you don't have to be career long or short a position at these levels for nvidia. why would you want to stay long or add to it or trim around it? >> well, i think -- i think we have been pretty clear over the last several weeks, if the market is looking for any form of a catalyst, it could be nvidia that is the actual catalyst at the end of the month. i think of nvidia as the sig

looking for the s&p going to 5000, of course they have the most famous bear there, mike wilson.et's bring in lance roberts. lance, it is really interesting because i saw your report, one of your reports, you're prodigious, i thought i put out a lot of stuff. i saw your report titled bad news is good news again. looks like we're moving that way but all probably will come down to this jobs report, right? >> yeah, it will. one thing that the market has been hoping for really ever since last year will the fed stop hiking rates? are they starting to cut-rates? the markets want easier monetary accommodation, they want lower rates, want the fed to cut rates. so all the bad news coming in last couple days, look, it is -- as rosy as expectations were but that's the hope that you know now the fed won't hike rates anymore, right? that's been good for stocks the last couple days. charles: i brought back the real gdp chart. okay we go 35%. obviously that was all skewed because the fed money came in right at the beginning. this to me, when i see this, even if i'm not a economist, do we need s

mike wilson one of the last bears to throw until towel.e pointed to excessive government spending. sounds like free money is worth it. how many guests talked about the m2 money supply. it experienced the sharpest decline ever, ever. that actually became one of the bedrock found takeses for the bear argument. how come that didn't really slow the economy not yet? there is a thing called velocity of money. i get a buck. give it to someone next to me, it goes around the velocity. unfortunately it has not offset the decline of supply that sort of velocity if history is right is sort of temporary. this morning moody's they cam around and actually kind of surprised everyone. they reminded us that why there was so much pessimism in first place and why maybe there is too much optimism now. the credit rating agency downgrading 10 banks, hinting there were maybe more. this is based on those concerns we had, right? ever since svb impending recession, some of the commercial real estate stuff out there. that remains to be seen if this cold water that is

you know, morgan stanley's mike wilson out kind of famously saying that high fiscal spending that underpinsustainable. he basically had that -- he missed that as part of his forecast for the year, part of the bearishness he's had but he does believe that ultimately it will kind of surface and it could be a bad sign for stocks do you agree with that >> so, leslie, what i would tell you, there's a lot of talk about the fitch downgrade last week and look at 2011 and today, the macro is much stronger today than it was in 2011 and it's much stronger than it's been in some time. if you look at credit spreads. the two factoriess are credit spreads and claims the credit spreads hit a year to date and that's a powerful signal the second thing, we've been talking about claims going higher for some time and they're still anemic until we see those two factors start to ratchet up you can't say there's a lot of stress in the economic picture, so, yeah, there's lots of risks. you think the risk is actually, you know, it's interesting, the risk could be inflation comes back later on because we are seeing

. >> yeah, mike wilson gave an interview on friday, morgan stanley, who has not been constructive of the market said the markets top on good news. i can't think of any better news than what we got from that company today, goldman's desk note kind of points out, stocks not going up on good news might be troublesome for bulls. on the other hand, there's enough hand wringing about china, about payments, about specialty retail that maybe the tina effect, there is no alternative effect, kind of returns for tech. we'll see. >> we will see. when you have over 5% on the two-year, you also wonder, although again, we have been dealing with the higher rate regime for some time. when the risk free rate is available at that level, it is that debate yet again in terms of how much of a bid there will continue to be for equities. as for, again, the response of the treasury market, we can see right here in terms of after jackson hole, one-year yield hit a high of 5.5%. two-year, 5.106%, the highest level since july 6th. ten-year, though, come down a bit, carl. so the longer end calming down after hit

other people, mike wilson, morgan stanley says this will continue.ic but slightly commit gives you a bad stomach ache and then you feel fine and ever but he keeps going. that is what some people are banking on. tom: the euro and the yen, right now, to help us out, drink market strategy and? global investments, looking at the allocation of portfolios, vittorio fernandez. is it a time to reallocate, what is the nuance across what to do h a marginal 5% of the portfolio? >> i think if you are overweight, some of the names that have been doing so well that have been over but -- overbought, you should be reallocating, trimming, going into something different. the approach we've had with our clients as we have been much more conservative in our approach, assuming we would see the equity market pullback. we were talking a seven to 10 percent correction, down around 5% now. having the balanced portfolio, some value names, cyclical names, that is where you should have your portfolio positions now. if you are not there, it is time to reallocate. tom: how inpati

kailey: this was something mike wilson was talking about.that nvidia earnings, kind of spectacular, could not serve as a catalyst for a rally in the equity market, he thought was telling. in the absence of catalysts like that, which ones are there? is every thing by economic data now? >> that is the problem. you don't have the leadership of this group, the performance mostly on multiple expansion. we're looking at the economic data, we will have the jobs data on fight -- or friday. we also have pc thursday. but that is kind of a late number because we already saw the july cpi number. but when we get the august cpi, that is keen. the fed could pause but we are still not sure they are done. if you look at where the gdp is tracking for q3, it says we are not restrictive. if the other members of the fomc start to acknowledge that, we have seen from the richmond fed president, saying it doesn't look like we are restrictive. more fed officials acknowledge that and we don't know where we are on the cycle. 2, 3 more? it feels like the fed should be

effect is people saying i'm not going to fight it you have oppenheimer saying we get to 4,900 >> mike wilson. >> he sort of capitulated. >> is this capitulation? >> this is capitulation on the upside you can make a mistake on the up >> eventually if it feeds into overconfidence bull markets need bulls to keep going. it is a more even trade now to say from here and this point on, i think a lot of people are on board with the soft landing scenario a lot of people are on board with the bull market you no longer have the skepticism to burn off to get to the higher price. >> there has been a lot of money moving in. >> it can continue >> let's look at the treasury market 10-year treasury is yielding 3.9% the 2-year treasury is 4.9%. >>> on the "squawk planner," a busy morning caterpillar and merck and pfizer and uber reporting we have an interview with the ceo of merck and uber's ceo. we will get reports from electronic arts and starbucks and amd. >>> let's talk about the new "x" sign on the headquarters formerly known as twitter. that sign officially taken down in san francisco it has drawn criti

as always, the mentor over there, filling in the gaps, and i think zach wilson, an opportunity to sit and watch and learn. >> mike: back in the game to run it. try to get a first down for the jets at the 30 yard line. see where the mark comes. 1:49 left. jets with one time-out, five-point deficit. preseason continues with the jets and carolina next week. they have practices with -- in spartansburg and they close out against the giants. and they need bragging rights. >> mike: picked up the first down. >> melissa: the two players the browns spend the off season building arne. we have myles garrett and nick chubb. nick, the center offense was and huh. what does 20923 browns look like? >> we have a great addition to the team. and i think we have things. >> melissa: what does it mean -- we have a big play here. incomplete. we can keep going. all the new pieces. what does it mean for you specifically? >> i can't really speak for myself. as a confidence, i'm looking forward to all the guys being able to make plays across the field, and all three levels. we have talent, all across the board and they are really off the pl

mike yarwood was nobody had ever done political impressions before. he was the first one to do it. and of course in those days it would have been harold wilsonber, and he did a brilliant harold wilson , did a brilliant harold wilson, and he also did james callaghan as well, whose late prime minister in the late 1970s. and the thing that i loved about mike yarwood was that he could take people who weren't funny and make them funny. and that's how i started because on a monday morning we would come to school and we'd everybody would have watched mike yarwood the have watched mike yarwood on the friday saturday. and friday or the saturday. and a guy said to me, he said, i can do brian clough . when the whole do brian clough. when the whole minnows . and i said to him , minnows. and i said to him, well, that's interesting because i can do. brian clough without holding my nose . and they said, holding my nose. and they said, how do you do that? i said, i don't know. and then i sort of realised that, you know, that you just move your voice to your nose and stuff like that, but i could just learn how to do it. so it makes people laugh. he makes peo

mike yarwood was nobody had ever done political impressions before. he was the first one to do it. and of course in those days it would have been harold wilsonber, and he did a brilliant harold wilson , did a brilliant harold wilson, and he also did james callaghan as well, whose late prime minister in the late 1970s. and the thing that i loved about mike yarwood was that he could take people who weren't funny and make them funny. and that's how i started because on a monday morning we would come to school and we'd everybody would have watched mike yarwood the have watched mike yarwood on the friday saturday. and friday or the saturday. and a guy said to me, he said, i can do brian clough . when the whole do brian clough. when the whole minnows . and i said to him , minnows. and i said to him, well, that's interesting because i can do. brian clough without holding my nose . and they said, holding my nose. and they said, how do you do that? i said, i don't know. and then i sort of realised that, you know, that you just move your voice to your nose and stuff like that, but i could just learn how to do it. so it makes people laugh. he makes peo

some like a vice president mike pence or otherwise to say this person is not capable of being in charge. the iconic examples of this in the past had to do with woodrow wilsoner he had a major stroke in office in 1924 and he had members of his cabinet question his capacity and in factct he was completely paralyd on his upper body and the marshall decided to challenge whether or not he was capable of discharging the duties of his office and that along with wilson's wife edith and the secretary and his doctor they all got together and decided to pull the wool over the e cabinet size and they brought marshall and other members of the cabinet into the sick room where the paralyzed side of his body was away from the entrance to the door and it was close so know i could see how and capacity that he was and he could partly speak on one side of his. he appeared to look like he was still functioning although in fact he was not. they were not able to pursue the 25th amendment. they weren't able to pursue moving them out of office. the first thing he did when he recovered was to take marshall out so there was revenge in some payback to it. of course there other exampl

president mike pence or otherwise to say this person is not capable to be in charge here that iconic example of this in the past pick the most common referred to had to do with woodrow wilson after he had a major stroke in office in 1924, and he had members of his cabinet question his capacity and, in fact, he was incapacitated. he was, in fact, completely paralyzed on half of his body. and marshall decided to challenge whether or not he was capable of discharging the duties of his office, and that along with wilson's wife edith and his secretary joseph templeton and dr. robert grayson they all got together and decided to pull the wool over the cabinets eyes and they brought marshall and other members of the cabinet into the sit room with the paralyzed side of his body was on, away from entrance to the door. they closed the drapes and the wood could see how incapacitated he was, and he could sort of partly speak on one side of his mouth and so he appeared to look like he was still, you know, functioning although in fact, he was not. they were not able to pursue this, this was of course before the 25th amendment but they were not able to pursue moving out of office. when he