you actually have -- tom: mike wilson with us here. futures are -15. uddled signals, what is the one thing you think people are getting wrong? mike: pricing. from a stock standpoint, this is where we are most out of consensus. this is the boom bust. what you see in the amplitude of pricing is much greater in the real economy than it is in government statistics. there is this illusion that companies can continue to price on these higher costs. the markets are finding out that most companies don't have pricing power. lisa: would you ever consider buying bonds? mike: [laughter] we have been buying some bonds. lisa: really? have you done that before? mike: we have bought everything. we think ultimately that will be of value. tom: let's go back to our youth. i know we are running out of time here, but is mike wilson in convertible bonds and preferreds right now? lisa: you have to -- mike: you have to own equities because we are in a higher inflationary environment. that is your protection against this new regime. bonds rsa for asset but in the near term --bo

mike wilson has been saying the price is wrong, it doesn't match what earnings will be. we recommend defensive growth within cyclicals. what's your take? >> mike could be right but the problem is you tend to mute the voices where the information they're providing in the present is not giving you much value. let's be clear, over the course of this year, that's what makes a market. i just disagree with what mike's view is overall. >> you're saying because he's been wrong this year, take what he says in september with a grain of salt? >> absolutely. i would agree with that but i would say he probably has the highest probability to be correct. one other thing about seasonality. bank of america put out a phenomenal note. when you are up 10% to 20% through the month of august, a 93% success rate being higher with an average return of 7.8%. i understand what mike is saying. i don't want to go defensive. i don't believe in going defensive. what you have to do is you have to be diversified and look at areas of the market where maybe you haven't seen the performance so far year to

mike wilson has been warning. do those cracks concern you?he fed's stated goal is to slow the economy down. if you look at the data, in most cases defaults look like they did in 2017. that is the same for high yield. there is an increase in consumer stress off of low levels from before. we are concerned about the consumer but not more so than corporate's. alix: how do you play? buy mbs? consumer credit loans? subprime auto? greg: in the portfolios, we have a meaningful amount of hedges relative to the last two years. second, we play in shorter duration things where we feel we are value covered and getting 36 months of cash flow. it is being selected where you are. we've been taking more risk in residential mortgages. on the clo side, we have a large allocation with less risk. we've been buying clo's in the process of paying down as opposed, to new issue, which are more exposed to the cycle. dani: it has been a slow year for clo's. there been inklings of buzzy names starting more funds. is there a pickup on the way? is there more excitement in

mike wilson came out today talking about how things remain weak and the rally is only being led by a few names and the games have not spread out to some of the other names in the index. he has a s&p 500 price target for the end of the year. we have nothing that materialized. he has been calling for a big remix collapse but we have not seen it quite yet. we still have a few months to go. another investor saying we should fade. he does cross asset strategy at jp morgan. he says he could turn more optimistic on equities if rates fall globally in the near term. his target is 4200. >> that is indicative of the spectrum and we have it in the economic spirit as well. -- sphere as well. we really are seeing a broad diversity of views. when it comes to rates, is there any coalescing around one particular area? >> i think a lot of people are coming to terms with the fact that the fed is likely done. may be will get one more hike in november, likely a pause in september. the question is not what exactly is the terminal rate going to be, but when will we feel the effects of the 500 basis points

morgan stanley's mike wilson becoming very bearish on the consumer sector, mirroring what goldman sachs analysts said. we had jeffries downgrading consumer stocks yesterday. a lot of these had the same narrative in common, all about this student loan repayment starting to pick off -- kick off. the rise in oil prices eating into consumers' savings. we have to look at how the government shutdown will change the narrative. it could be another drag on gdp in the fourth order. kriti: watching how quickly the tide changes on that front. valerie tytel walking us through that story. one of the major factors that could affect the bond market is the idea of a potential looming government shutdown. we have 3.5 days left before we get that deadline, at least weekdays, how much closer to we get to that crisis point? something moody's mourned would affect the u.s.'s credit rating. to walk through all of it, jill is standing by. this feels like quite the stark warning. >> it really does. there is a couple things we have to keep in mind when it comes to the moody's morning. obviously, they are not down

mike wilson says there is too much optimism in the market. the problem with autos. more competition and a potential worker strike in the u.s. what it will take for the stocks to shift gears. and a problem with oil. extending oil cuts through the end of the year. from new york, i'm alix steel with guy johnson. welcome to "bloomberg markets". it has been a pleasure. you look great. it is nice to see you back. we missed you. guy: i am back from greece where it is raining and very hot now in london. i feel like i am doing something right. alix: you made it through the strikes. guy: i made it. i think the story with strikes around the auto sector and with the airline sector, i think they are synonymous. these are industries that have pushed back really hard on their staff over a number of years and they are now paying the price. we have data coming in. we have got the ecb coming up next week. -2.1% out of the states. durable goods -5.2%. that is right in line with expectations. ex-transport coming up at 0.4%. the durable goods numbers are in line. the factory numbers loo

mike wilson at morgan stanley publishing research talking about slowing consumer spending, student loanid sees, higher gas prices, weakening data in the housing sector. is it becoming just a difficult picture for the consumer now? sarah: it has been a really difficult picture for the consumer. we have seen retailers say that consistently over last quarter earnings calls. they are not even necessarily talking about their sales. they are talking about a much bigger macro driver. and that was when people didn't have to pay back their student loans, didn't need to worry about their heating bills going into the winter. the consumer is not in a great place. the consumer has not been any great place. the difference now is that is really getting priced in. i don't think it will necessarily be a great winter. guy: interesting that you talk about the consumer. the consumer is many people, clearly. interesting to watch how the higher end consumer has held up, but you have warnings from all of the luxury good companies in europe about a slowing consumer in the u.s. and europe, asia, as well. that a

mike wilson, price is wrong. earnings expectations are wrong. jpmorgan's mark kolanovic says they've been normalizing the last six months at least. we think there's a crisis over the next 6 to 12 months. the severity of which could be higher than market participants anticipate. taking for granted things that might happen like eric johnson argued with me on "closing bell"? >> i don't know we're necessarily taking it for granted. the ingredients are there for a crisis to materialize. >> they are? >> the ingredients are there to pop a bubble. if we look back on this time in hindsight, we'll say things were obviously overvalued given where we were in the economic cycle and in a hiking cycle. but it hasn't happened yet, and we've spent all of this year, literally all of this year, waiting for that moment, waiting for the big thing that was going to do it and take us down. and the regional bank thing didn't even do it, right? now i think investors are at a point, where else would i go? i'll rotate around within equities but am not going to pull all th

and two of my favorite bears on the street, mike wilson at morgan stanley, he's talking about consumer, and then marco over at jpmorgan in a note out, just talking about corporate's ability to pass through, the same kind of concept, pass through, you know, higher input costs and the like. and you say to yourself, as it relates to the economy, you know, we have businesses that probably hit peak margins and really pass through as much as they can, and the consumer from a credit standpoint, it's just tapped. rates have gone up so fast, if you are a lower wage earning and wages -- at least the pace in which they're going up has decelerated a little bit, i'm just hard-pressed to see all of this together is conducive for equities going much higher in the near term. until there's a proper, you know, correction or so. and if you look at that equal weight s&p 500, it was down 9% or so. like seeing down 10% would be an interesting alarm bell with the vix above 20 or something. we haven't gotten there yet, but it might get there, especially if we have a continuation of this move, where the ten-ye

jonathan: the major message for mike wilson is you have to be in the market. with being in cash. he wants to participate even within his caution. the usual wilson victims. i get that. the panic right now in the modern financial media is go to cash. right now, this wednesday morning is a massive go to cash. jonathan: this your tagline. lisa: [laughter] tom: i was at the savoy in london and somebody goes, you must be killing it. i said to carry on the leverage is killing me. don't think people understand that sometimes three is not 15% roundabout. everyone else's looking at me like i am nuts. jonathan: just want to touch base on the euro. to touch base with four days of yen weakness. on dollar-yen, we are pushing 150. this dollar a whole lot stronger. tom: and, yen, 4920 as they are. it will be interesting to see how japan reacts to what we see. i am focused on the tangible market. that is our politics of this nation. thrilled to have ed mills, washington policy analyst at raymond james. a lot of work out of boston college. have you seen this before? a president

for mike wilson.eeks of euro weakness's against the dollar strength. this morning, reclaiming briefly 1.0 six, backing away. a little bit of guinness strength in the mix as well -- yen strength in the mix as well. house speaker kevin mccarthy struggling to get heartland republicans to approve a short-term continuing resolution to avoid a shutdown. white house staff told to brace forth furloughs and treasuries said most irs services would pause. we are getting closer are we? lisa: are you excited to keep talking about it until then? all of these deals did not look like they are gaining any traction. the take away economically depends on how long it goes on. another unknown among the sea of unknowns leading to a wide range of potential outcomes. jonathan: this is the deadline where we could get some action. that a deadline looming for uaw extractors will expand unless progress is made. shawn fain expected to give an update on facebook live coming a bit of a weekly tradition at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. a

mike wilson says 3900 is where we will end the year. there are bears out there. nasdaq futures pointing lower. we had bonds seeing yields rally 15 basis points partially because 40 markets -- companies went to market and sold bonds, so a massive amount of issuance that would have depressed prices somewhat. we had a mess and move in crude oil as well -- massive move in crude oil as well. annabelle: when you have higher oil prices there is upward inflationary pressure. a firmer dollar will be weighing on asian equities. futures here range found. feeling flat so far. the outlook for chinese, -- chinese economy. a lot of the moves given the dollar strength playing out of the fx space. the aussie and kiwi dollar printing new day-to-day lows against the greenback. we had pmi data tuesday weaker than expected, but also showing further deterioration. the japanese yen back at the level at which officials first intervened in the market last year. we will be on watch for any further jawboning to come. this is a story abroad greenback strength and perhaps we will not see any

earnings, this is a big deal off mike wilson's comments. retail earnings in particular. tuesday cosco. wednesday h&m and micron. thursday is nike. curious to see whether these are bespoke stories or whether we get a theme. on the economic data front you talk about home prices and the mortgage rates. home price data as well as new-home sales. we get that tomorrow. jobless claims thursday. personal income and core pce on friday. the consumer. how much did they continue to surprise to the upside? tom: is not a sleepy week into october. on the des screen, a plethora of data. jp morgan october 13. they also have december, when the bruins pull ahead. joining us is luke kawa. what did you write about this weekend? what is the distinction you see in the cacophony of news we have? luke: this weekend is a lot more reading than writing. very interesting for us to watch and year end. a couple of things that seem like big highlights. a lot of the -- there is the quintet. throw in higher rates into the mix that the u.s. economy will be dealing with. we are dealing with a turn in the s

i respect his work but mike wilson of morgan stanley and i, i respect his work greatly, he had a consensuso be worth. the strength of the market was very much tied to positioning. people were just very negative and caught up now with the market. secondly, the price will decline and the strong dollar reversed, which helped the economy as well. >> so you think the major averages are coming down in the second half? >> i think so, yeah. i wouldn't be surprised if -- i wouldn't make this a definitive comment but i wouldn't be surprised if we've seen the high for the year already. i don't think -- my big issue, my big view is, and i said this about a year ago on the program, i have a view very much like the pharaoh had a dream and like in the bible. i don't expect we see a new high in the market for a long time. we've had very bad policy mix and part of the stress this year has been very stimulative to fiscal policy, restrictive to monetary policy. >> what do you do about all this? >> i'm a stock picker. i'm short the s&p at a certain level and i'm picking stocks that i like. it's hard to be pat

tom: the most important thing this week is mike wilson going i am not cash. wilson is in the market while he is cautious. jonathan: he is the chief equity strategists. tom: that is amazing. jonathan: greg is running is next. were you up all night watching the debates, is is what this was? the latest on the debates up next. ♪ >> bidennomics have failed. autoworkers are feeling it and families are struggling. >> we need a new approach to trying -- to china, we will have real hard power to deter their positions. we will have economic independence. >> we need to deliver economic growth and unlock american energy. rail, and burn coal and embrace nuclear energy. put people back to work. jonathan: governor mike pence santos on the gop governor -- residential debate stage. we will bring some more from nikki haley as well. again after the gop debate writing this " ", trump is still the all-time favorite and it is unlikely that they will be a late entry. could trump also win the general election? we do not rule it out. democrats in this town are worried." tom: the wash

but also ultimately sealed the win over russell wilson and the broncos new offensive coordinator, mike lombardi actually praised images before mint. it led to that comeback. when take a listen below. look at gym to get a great job of. >> get the out of time and stepping up in the pocket we had to. i'm sure you guys here. you saw some of those plays in the game and early in the game when he scrambled and pushed up and the pocket was clean he had those alleys to run in and time. your quarterback completes, you know, about 75% passes are both safe says passes year. you're pleased with how we, you know, operate the offense. you know, we obviously saw him do that this past sunday and that will be go for him moving forward every week. >> well, the a's looking to make it 2 in a row today as they take on the houston astros. top of the first is where we'll pick it up to up one. nothing. shea langeliers here takes justin verlander. high in deep to left and it bounces off the train there into left field. you see it a towering 2 run homerun to cap off a 3 run. any know anglers, homer again, the se

mike pence says he agrees with senator tommy tuberville is pro-life stance, holding up ended on promotions, and endanger national security. the lincoln project rick wilsone's extreme views on abortion as well can boost his single digit, maybe negative now, poll numbers. you're watching the katie phang show. only on msnbc. n msnbc. my husband and i have never been more active. shingles doesn't care. i go to spin classes with my coworkers. good for you, shingles doesn't care. because no matter how healthy you feel, your risk of shingles sharply increases after age 50. but shingrix protects. proven over 90% effective, shingrix is a vaccine used to prevent shingles in adults 50 years and older. shingrix does not protect everyone and is not for those with severe allergic reactions to its ingredients or to a previous dose. an increased risk of guillain-barré syndrome was observed after getting shingrix. fainting can also happen. the most common side effects are pain, redness, and swelling at the injection site, muscle pain, tiredness, headache, shivering, fever, and upset stomach. shingles doesn't care but, shingrix protects. shingrix is now zero dollars for

not such a good one for celtic though asjoe wilson reports. mikevarez. rapid feet, even in slow motion. next, a blunderfrom red star's goalkeeper, the most popular glazer in manchester. the goalkeeper completely missed it! business as usual was completed by rodri. he's some player, that's some finish. the complete footballer. here's what newcastle have been waiting for after two decades and saudi arabian millions, in milan against one of the most successful european teams there's ever been. here we go, rafael leao. ac milan found many ways not to score, this the most elaborate. after 9a minutes mainly defending, newcastle were here. could there be a chance? well, 0—0, a pointand a new experience, it will all help. celtic�*s evening in rotterdam featured two goals from feyenoord. here is the first. it also included two red cards. here's celtic�*s second. yeah, for that. part of the motivation for the manager's return was to make an impression on europe. well, brendan rodgers already has more to ponder. joe wilson, bbc news. after a tricky start to t

and he angrily reply to that, tell me mike, calling from roy, it says you can write garbage if you want. okay. jim wilson into russia's address it for. yeah, at the general assembly to get a, i guess, a better understanding all of it's world view level did speak on a range of other issues, didn't a, the data, i mean, we talked to him, it hurt him really give a, a tool around the world and then the message was pretty much the same message that you hit regularly, that is old, the west's fault. and clearly if you fact checked that speech, some of the things he said, all totally um, factual. but western countries and many other countries will say he's ignoring the big point, which is that the united nations is an organization set up at the end of world war 2 with a charter. and the most fundamental provision of that job is one country doesn't invite you to nova, and that's something he did not want to talk about. i time. thank you so much. that is the diplomat. it gives a james buys at the united nations. let's talk to daniel hawkins, who is lot for us and most go and just going back to the attacks and crime

wilson. far too much of ted. after all, he is far too good at making a full of himself without your help. the brilliant impressionist mike60 and �*70s, he was one of the biggest names on television. actually, maggie asked me about house of commons christmas party if i would kiss her under the mistletoe. i said i would kiss her under the mistletoe. isaid i i would kiss her under the mistletoe. i said i would not kiss her under anaesthetic. good evening, ladies and gentlemen. welcome to the show. he pioneered new technology to appear both as steptoe and son. climb upon my knee, sonny boy. please. they are more like brass bed knobs _ his christmas day show in 1977 is still one of the highest—rated programmes of all time. excuse me. it attracted stars like paul mccartney. i don't know whether you know me but i don't know whether you know me but i used to be denis healy. and an audience of more than 21 million. i got rather fed i got ratherfed up being a silly billy so i decided to be a chunky punky. it was reported that the queen delayed her christmas meal so her family could watch. good evening. as you know this is my very

mike. >> i end up with a quarterback named russell wilson. he had a pretty good day last sunday.or two. that was okay. but i'm trying to figure out, should i move him? should i drop him? what should i do? i don't like him. >> yeah, i mean, obviously, it depends on what else is available in your league? are there quarterbacks on the waiver wire? is it a one quarterback league? i'm not crazy about russell wilson. the concern is in fantasy football, to have success as a fantasy football quarterback, you either need a quarterback that can give you points with his legs and his arms, like we saw from jalen hurts last night, as you were talking about a couple minutes ago, or you need to have 35 to 40 passing touchdown upside, the way a joe burrow or justin herbert does. the fact of the matter is, russell doesn't have that passing upside at this stage of his career, and he doesn't run anymore. last year -- sorry, last week, one rush attempt in week number one. not crazy about him this week. i think sean payton is an aggressive coach and the broncos are getting jerry jeudy back, so it'll

wilson, the prime minister to see that shows how old his shows were. but it takes you back 60s, christmas you back to the 60s, christmas day, 1977, the mike yarwood showthing ever. and according to robert, thank you very much for emailing in robert he says i was very sad to hear of the death of mike yarwood who shows particularly his christmas day shows were must see events. i remember the 1978 christmas show and his guests were abba that was tv gold, his brand of humour though, was very gentle. and you're right, he never overstepped the mark, did he? not too much anyway. >> but he. >> but he. >> he sort of disappeared out of the public life about 30 years ago. >> i don't know whether he had mental problems. think mental health problems. i think that played a part that might have played a part because he retired from public life . life. >> it's a shame . >> it's a shame. >> it's a shame. >> and i don't think even though he must have made gazillions in his day, i don't know whether he was very wealthy in his later life at all. >> no. >> no. >> but anyway, we're going to talk to jim davidson in this houn talk to jim davidson in this hour. someone who kn