and in minsk, nothing happens. trump wins. and i am going to give you one of my secrets for what is going on in moscow. that is to follow the writings of why things are interesting. i will digress on this. >> not too much. >> i will just tell you this. he always wants to be within the bubble acceptable to the kremlin bubble but always towards the edge of that bubble pushing moscow in direction to what is good for russia and better relations between the west and russia. that is how we characterize it. he wrote an article basically saying russia can do what wants in ukraine which demonstrated what the russians thought they would get with trump. it didn't turn out that way. for thoughtful russians pondering us sanctions policy in the summit. he was not the panacea he hoped. in the end the second period negotiations, by late fall in 2017, with russian think tanks. russia can live with ukraine and nato. other think tanks offered serious ideas about an international presence as a vehicle for ending the war. if you can establish that

the minsk negotiations are and ossified, largely irrelevant process.ot one interesting idea has come from the russian side in those talks. i won't say many interesting ideas come from the ukrainian side, but more than some. there have been two periods of real negotiations of the donbass conflict. the first, the first one was from january of 2016 until june of that year. interesting things were said. it's worth recalling what is going on at that time. because the kremlin which of course has been engaged in syria since assad's troubles emerged in 2011 went in big time in the fall of 2015. which was the first time since the crisis, since the seizure of crimea, that ukraine was bumped off the first line in russian media. and thoughtful people in moscow had recognized what i just explain to you about the correlation of forces in ukraine. and you begin to see some talk in a think tank community russia reflecting a little bit of flexibility, just a little bit, and then these negotiations began. and interesting things were said on both sides in those talks. so

seen nor, we have russian movement under the minsk agreement.e've seen some although not a great deal of ukrainian movement. the key point is the way the two sides interpret the most controversial provisions of the minsk two agreement, which relates not just to the elections but the influence, or lack of influence, that local authorities in those territories would have over ukrainian national security policy. the kremlin insists that whoever wins those elections can veto ukraine's national security policy. and no one in ukraine with exception of sort of medvedchuk crowd agrees with that and for that matter neither to germany or france or the united states. i think if the kremlin were willing to accept, and i can see this as a face safer once mr. putin realizes he cannot get ukraine to change its foreign policy by this method, that could be the face saver were you have real elections, with a certain kind of autonomy although that is controversial within ukraine. and i can't be sure how ukraine would ultimately resolved that through parliament. bu

>> so far we've seen no russian movement under the minsk agreement.me of the ukrainian movement. the key point is the way the two sides interpret the most controversial provisions of the minsk agreements which relate not just to the elections, but the influence or lack of influence to local authorities in those territories would have over ukrainian national security policy . the kremlin insists that whoever wins those elections can veto ukraine's national security policy and knowing ukraine with the exception of the medvedchuk crowd agrees with that and neither do germanyor france or the united states . i think if the kremlin were willing to accept, i could see once putin realizes he cannot get ukraine to change its foreign policy by this method, by wharton donbas, that could be a face saver. you have real elections, a certain kind of autonomy although that is controversial within the ukraine and i can't be sure how ukraine would resolve that through their parliaments but i think if zelensky were to push on this and you have a real peace and ukraine i

and we introduce you to minsk in goma the south african taxi driver who's become an opera singing sensation. hello i'm christine linda welcome to day to africa it's good to have you along tens of thousands of people have fled towns in english speaking of cameroon off to renewed fighting between the military and say persists and a lockdown in the region the separatists have called for a lockdown after their leader julius i was sentenced to life in prison for suspicion and hostility against the state in the north western town off by amanda transport providers were overwhelmed with the number of travelers waiting at bus terminals people lawfully into french speaking towns despite or burridge he's urging them not to. raise joins me from boyer that's the capital of the southwest region off camera. plays tell us about this this. movement is planning why are people so fearful off it. the reason why people are afraid of this low down is because the separatists is going to last for 3 weeks 1st secondly to say any policy to see on the streets in this direction in this period will cost us a spy for me

will and how far you cranium are ready to go in compromising and fulfilling the conditions of the minsk accords which govern the peace in ukraine. and their there are several points on which for any ukrainian president fulfilling that would be deadly and which russia insists on fulfilling. now if booted place this smart which so far h has been doing ad that recent exchange of prisoners between ukraine and russia at. at cistus default to this. at he can than. a line behind himself western leaders who gonna press to crane to fulfill those conditions even at the call of the political there have a political cost. and that is precisely that can be one of the- best outcomes for putting. so far seeing the discourse of amanda makran during the press conference. this looks like a major and diplomatic victory at least two of the battle for russia. we are e seeing a frenchh preresidt employing a very open and positive language toward russia. implying corporation in the in it in the spirit of trust and security and the moment when russia's military conflict with ukraine. and is placing russia this

major conflict was halted in 2015 after a cease fire deal brokered by france and germany was signed in minsk but small scale clashes have continued ukraine russia france and germany last met for talks in 2016 but a definitive pieces so far proved elusive with moscow and kiev trading blame for more on this i'm joined by research to save rich research fellow at the ukraine former chatham house as rematch for coming to talk to us so 1st what would you make of the timing of these talks. it's interesting to observe why they're happening and they are happening because the president selenski has just won a major victory in the parliamentary elections and has a majority and if you notice what president putin aspersion for ukraine to do and why he's sustaining this conflict is to have a constitution changed in ukraine by embedding the special status for the occupied territories inside ukraine that would in a way prevent ukraine's western integration for them to have a special veto startles of course this is all between the lines we do know what president putin is trying to achieve is to cripple ukrai

. >> so again the attitude here is people are cautiously opt michk minsk nobody saying they are in the clear. they feel better than yesterday. >> yes, she does sound like she is breathing a big sigh of relief indeed. martin savage thank you. joining me roint. li lisa monika. what are some of the biggest security concerns that you might have -- and a local and national level when you talk about a starm of in caliber? >> well, good afternoon, fred, and good to be with you. look, i think concern here is to make sure that people are staying vigilant. and that's what the having segment you just had on shows. folks have to pay attention to the latest reporting, because even a slight deviation from what's expectsed now could spell real trouble in the future. folks need to really be conscious of the updated reporting. you know, that cone that we all look at every time there is a hurricane and that we follow and we really examine, we have to remember there is a cone of uncertainty. and so at the local level people should be listening to the local reports and their guidance. and of course first

. >> in the event of your death you consent your body may be given to the university of minsk for medicalerimentation or possibly shot out of a cannon. >> that's fine, yeah. >> do you know your passport number by heart? >> no. >> your driver's license number? >> no. >> but we have them. >> can we get -- somebody show my broadcast. yeah, can you just show them to us on broadcast? trying to get as much information as possible. just right up there. great. that's all your information. okay. great. that's your information. that's fine. we can freeze it and zoom in on the number later. >> any kind of i.d.? >> only cards, credit cards. >> what is it? >> credit cards. >> can we take a look at that? >> yeah, no worries. >> just hold it up to the camera. okay. that's great. and the three-digit card on the back if we can get that. just the back. for the picture. for the camera. okay. great. thank you. we'd like to get a 3-d impression of you if that's okay. >> okay. >> i need to put some 3-d sensors on. if you can just move your hair back. >> i'm pretty sweaty. >> you'll be okay. >> hold on. okay. w

the president's re-election campaign needs to take texas seriously adding while he remains apartment minsk about the gop chances it's by no means a given that trump will carry texas. if it's no means a given that trump carries texas it's by no means a given that trump carries the popular vote or the election aurl college. >> that's absolutely right. you know, he will probably again have a lot of help from his friends in russia. but ted cruz is onto something. he saw what happened in the senate race and how close congressman o'rourke came to beating him. the voter rental strags drives happening on the progressive side. absolutely texas could well be in play. and you know, i think you look at somebody like will hurd and i don't know that woman who seems to be so happy. >> cathiy pons, the precinct chair. >> you keep thinking that if you that helps you slep at night. but he is the canary in the coal mine. absolutely forcing republicans to spend more money in texas is only good for democrats. can i just push back on one thing? no exact is running to be the high priest or high priestess of the

that it would be a sign of, quote, weakness if the g7 were to readmit russia into its midst until the minsk protocols, the protocols that would solve or at least alleviate the tensions between russia and ukraine were fully implemented. he's precisely right. russia was ejected from the g7, from the g8 at the time in 2014 because it violated a core tenet of relations, a core tenet that has guided international relations since really the end of world war ii. and that is the idea that big states do not bully small states. and if the g7 were to roll over at the instillation of donald trump and to invite vladimir putin back in without putin having left crimea and eastern ukraine, this would be that very sign of weakness, signaling that the g7 was no longer willing to really abide by and really to enforce that key tenet of international order. >> evelyn, what is the state of the g7, and what is the state of of its power and influence today on these issues that the three of you have discussed so far? >> as david said, originally it was created as an ad hoc group of leaders. it's not an institution

there seems to be a slight movement as regards the translation of the minsk process into reality. progress for saying the reasons we had in 2014 are obsolete. so this is why we, and that means europe, but also france and germany in particular, will put our all into talking to the new president of the ukraine, and talking to mr putin and trying to make progress. and then we will look at the progress and see whether we have gone far enough. just on your point about the seeming impossibility of the negotiations. i have in my life watch a lot of european negotiations, and believe me it looks at first as though it is irresistible force and immovable object, and what in my experience happens is that people find a way through. and i think that if we approach this with sufficient patience and optimism, as i say, we can get this done. it is in the final furlong, can get this done. it is in the finalfurlong, generally, when the horses change places and the winning deal appears. on your second, very good, point about russia and the g7, iam aware good, point about russia and the g7, i am awar

. >> right >> so you don't know, they call sit minske moment.conservativessh republicans, they kindw of blew their story, with the tax cut. we're having deficits because of >> for pa lot of reasons, not just that. >> you have the democrats ironically fighting over the centrists are trying to be fiscally conservative and the voice of the partyÑ right now much further right. >> where are we getting to you have a huge amount of crypto to you do. what do you think the normalpere is 1%? >> i think 2 to 3% ut 7% of my network in gold right now. >> do you have more in bitcoin or gold. >> >> more ino bitcoin i'm speculating. >> now you say it's a 10 or 14,000 rate. do you think it will ever go back to 5? >> i don't believe so, if it goes below 6,000 i'm geti real( nervous. >> maybe wel& have, i want to talk to you more about that.i where you r. we'll come back have that conversation >>> right now when we comeÑack, a vfo will come offçóthe company's ttbeer than second quarter results. stay tuned, you are watching "squawk" right here onÑ cnbc. th