greg staples, priya misra, james athey staying with us.ing up we will be talking about china and tariffs. the month, the week what a month , and week it has been. treasuries, not a massive move, down a basis point. on the 10 year to 1.52. on the 30 year down to it is the 1.99. moves on the month that matter. huge moves on 10's and 30's. up to 50 plus basis points lower. still ahead, the final spread, the week ahead. the top of the agenda, payrolls report. that is next. this is bloomberg "real yield." ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg "real yield." it is time for the final spread. coming up over the next week, it begins this weekend. u.s. tariffs on $110 billion of chinese imports set to begin on sunday. on monday, u.s. markets are closed for labor day. tuesday, a decision from the rba. wednesday, we see pmi numbers from china. in the u.s., the beige book drops. this is the same day that we hear from the fed. thursday, we get the u.s. adp employment change and initial jobless claims. this all leads up to the payroll report f

jonathan: joining me here in new york city, priya misra of td securities.iana amoa of jpmorgan, and krishna memani. of invesco. let's begin with you, priya. your thoughts on the potential of another rate cut before year's end? priya: we are looking for another rate cut in october. we have been looking for 75 basis cuts this year. the fed is putting in some insurance cuts. our view is the consumer will show signs of stress, so we see the fed cutting three more times next year. i did not read the fed as being that hawkish. i think, relative to where they were in july -- in july, chair powell said midcycle adjustment. we are cutting down but we may take it back. i think that was a communication mistake. he is facing a divided committee. what i heard this week is we don't know, we are still in the process of running this midcycle adjustment -- and notice he didn't use the word midcycle adjustment. but he has gotten more of the committee into this insurance camp. i am looking at the seven dots that has one more cut penciled in. so i think the fed is trying to re

table withround the me is priya misra, diana amoa, and krishna memani.pread some come in, we are at the tightest, almost for the year. he and yields.f your thoughts and where we are at the moment? krishna: the argument for high-yield being expensive is very easy to make. yield levels are low, spread levels are tight. high-yield is not cheap by any measure. income, there are very few choices that most investors have. if you look at the flows, they are speaking with their dollars, putting money into investment grade debt, fixed income, rather than equities, because they think it is better value. the key point with respect to valuations is, you use valuations to arrive at how much risk you want to take, rather than what risk you want to take. history, if you went by valuations to make judgments about any market, that has gone to a wrong answer far more than the right answer. priya: i would say this is an environment of hedging. i'm concerned about the economy. i don't know if i would be in high-yield. i am not a credit analyst, but this would be a time to d

with me around the table still is priya misra, diana amoa, and krishna memani.ave been talking about this for 12 months. the issues that we see this week in the repo market, and you are not putting it down to corporate pulling money from market money funds, you have been talking about this for a while. it comes down to reserves. walk me through the dynamic. why is it so important? it is a problem that needs addressing now. priya: it's a question of reserve scarcity. it is really the distribution of reserves. until number of excess reserves in the system is about 1.3 trillion. the fed has been saying perhaps 900 billion to one trillion is enough. therefore we are in an excess reserve regime, and reserves have been falling for quite some time. most of it was because the fed was leading the portfolio runoff. even if they stop that, it will continue to fall because currency circulation continues to grow. because of the regulatory environment, which has changed in the last five years, even though the total amount of reserves are ok, the interbank trading is not happe

thisg up, priya misra on soggy trading day as the fed prepares to meet and oil does not spike again.it comes to the west versus iran. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: equity markets treading water as the fed meeting begins in washington. oil gripped by uncertainty. saudi arabia telling customers some crew delivery will be delayed. for now wework will not work in public markets. the company set to postpone a contentious ipo. good morning. futures negative four points on the s&p 500. down .1%. in foreign exchange, the euro firmer to 1.1026. treasury bill -- treasuries bid, yields lower 1.83 on the u.s. 10 year. a rate cut is all but done. show me the guidance. >> they will cut by 25. >> 25 basis points. game, thee of the rest point for wednesday will be what is the forward guidance? >>