jump in here, mitch roschelle. interesting is what's going on with the ten-year treasury because one week it looks like the bond market is worried about inflation and it goes up and the next week they are word about global contraction and the ten-year goes down. so i think, you know, net there's a greater risk of a global recession with the economies around the world tied together and have global slowing than there is, you know, more expansion and, in fact, i think that's why you're seeing oil prices come down because there's a fear globally that there's less demand when the economy is slowing, the inflation problem that we have here is spread around the planet. maria: it's a great point and, dan, do you agree with that because europe is obviously facing the two punch of not just the inflation that we are looking at but also the problem on ukraine and limitations to -- to gas. maria: so i do agree with mitch and i think he's exactly right to point to the oil market. the market is getting head around to become recess

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adviser llc founder and university of san diego school of business visiting researching fellow mitch roschellekay, let's dig into this hot, hot job's report. some might find that it's uncomfortably hot. the white house is certainly touting this as a big win but i want to get to the one, i guess you could call it the one blemish of this report and that's the job participation rate. it dropped. talk to me about that and why it's so important that we don't miss that. mitch: yeah, and i think as the white house is doing a victory lap about a very strong job's report and certainly is that the one thing they failed to mention is that the labor participation rate and in english basically the percentage of the population that's in the workforce. it fell and it's fallen to the lowest level since 1977 and if you're old like me and if you remember what the economic climate was like in 1977, you're really reminiscent of what it's like right now and what that means there are incentives out there that people would rather not work than work which makes absolutely no sense when the price of everything is goin

neil: mitch roschelle joins us to talk about this. macro trends advdvisor, founding partner. t already know, that crime is an issue and as we were saying very early on much more so than the buy risk, with easing in the city, the crime situation was not and that's a problem. now he is kind of eating his own words, but he all but threatened workers to get their fannies back 24/7 now realizing that is easier said than done. what do you make of all this? >> it is easier said than done. when i started working in the '70s in new york city, late '70s, that is, when i started working there were a ton of people on the trains, there were a ton of people on the streets, there were a ton of people on the subways and one of the challenges with the crime situation those trains, those subways, those streets aren't as busy as they were in the bygone days, which makes people more scared for their lives literally when they're commuting to and from work. if you're working at goldman sachs, burning midnight oil, find your car in the street where it is, because they were generous enough cars to se

if our housing guy, mitch roschelle, takes that on for us.rms. watch this. >> are you encouraging him to run again? >> i'm encouraging him to focus on what's right in front of us. >> my focus is totally on this november. >> i don't want to answer that question because we have not -- that's not -- yeah, i don't want to answer that question. [laughter] stuart: that's an answer to the question, all right. even "the new york times" is warning president saying, hey, joe, don't give it a go. joe concha reacting to that later in the show. ♪ don't let me get me. ♪ i'm my own worst enemy ♪♪ you'll always remember buying your first car. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. shingles. some describe it as an intense burning sensation or an unbe

we have mitch roschelle joins me now in person. good to see you. good afternoon. >> in person. jackie: what do you make of the action we're seeing? we had a strong july. we're into august. people are typical, trading volumes are light, it is tepid. we're seeing back and forth seesaw action. where do you think the mindset of the investor is? >> i think the pelosi trip put a little fear in the market couple days. it impacted overseas markets especially in asia. i think that accounted for selloffs early in the week. there is the positive momentum from july, spilling into august. august is historically low volume time. big swings happen in low volume. there is a probably another leg down here but all the cashing on the sidelines creates momentum. retail investors who said wait a second i didn't get in get this. i think that what is tend to happens. end of june money managers trying to make balance sheets look good at the end of the quarter. they sold positions because they didn't want to have them. they are buying back in. what is happen is big tech is leading the rally that is the

constellation research ceo ray wang and macro trends partners mitch roschelle both here on that storyy, i will start with you. talk about lithium in terms of global reserves first, because the united states actually has a larger supply of reserves than china does, but china has the first mover advantage. they have been mass producing batteries already. so now i feel like the u.s. producers are trying to play catchup here. it feels like what the white house making this kind of a push so quickly feels like we're late to the game. >> we're definitely late to the game. 76% of the world's lithium-ion batteries are produced in china. 8% is in the u.s. we have to build and ramp up the capacity to be able to do that we're heavily reliant on china. the other thing happening china is strategically acquiring mines for lithium around the world. that is where we're falling back. even though we have great supply, we have to get lithium out of ground. jackie: acquiring real estate, farming, china never stops, mitch. when it comes to bat i ares and comes to electric cars we really need to ramp up pro

his name is mitch roschelle. great to have you with us.ld at an annual rate of 4.8 million. i call that weak. what about you. >> i do think it's weak, but the bigger question is, not that i'm giving you the questions to ask me, but is the housing market in a recession, and i say, no. and the reason for that is we saw two days ago the sentiment of home builders being down. then we saw housing starts being down. that means we're going to have less supply. and my belief is that demand is going to stay relatively constant because people still need homes. the volume of transactions suggests these are coming from a period where interest rates have spiked, so i think people backed off a little bit. but now the mortgage rates are starting to stabilize a little bit, i think you're going to see into the buying season in the south which starts pretty soon a pick-up in volume. stuart: okay. we've got the credit reporting agency, fitch -- and i'm sure you've seen this -- they're saying that home prices cocould fall as much as 15%. that's a dire warning

mitch roschelle, leo kelly been great being with you this morning thanks for being here and thank you for watching i'll see you tonight on wall street for fox business 7:00 p.m., "varney" & company begins right now, ashley webster in for stu ashley take it away. ashley: thank you, maria, good morning to you, good morning, everyone. indeed i'm ashley webster in today, on this friday for stuary varney and yes, all eyes are on jackson hole this morning. fed chief jay powell will offer clues into the fed's next move in september and we are there, live. also, let's take a look at the markets ahead of mr. powell's 1. same as you are, so to speak. the dow up 52 points but the s&p and nasdaq simply flat at this point. let's take a look at the 10-year treasury yield, holding above 3% there it is barely, just above 3 % up just about 2 basis points. by the way we'll also get new developments in that raid of president trump's florida home. a judge has ordered redacted version of the fbi search affidavit. has to be released by noon today we're going to talk more about what we could learn from it,