mitt romney can survive a loss in iowa, but can michele bauchmann? newt gingrich can afford a loss in new hampshire, but for mitt it may be win or go home. the win or go home january races. next, president obama's chances of beating the nominee. where does he stand in the crucial battleground states? historically, how have other presidents done with approval ratings in the mid-40s one year out? and that's where he is. plus we'll looking potential running mates. could marco rubio seal florida for romney? could we see a gingrich/cain ticket? and most interesting of all, would president obama ever consider dumping joe biden for hillary clinton if things looked really bad? what about a third-party run? an independent candidate would almost surely throw the election to one side or the other. but which one? this is no fantasy, we'll be joined by someone who is making sure a third candidate will be on the ballot in all 50 states. >>> finally, amateur hour, we'll go to the videotape for the campaign low lights, if you will, in the gop race so far. there are a

mitt romney has valued outsourcing.iowa, he said that corporations are people with all the same rights. in nevada, one of the states with the worst housing crisis and foreclosure crisis, he said the mortgage crisis should run its course and hit bottom. he had a plan for the speculators to step in, but not for the people living in those homes. people think he is a flip-flop peper. the only thing scarier are the issues where he has refused to change. he has been rock solid in siding with the privileged over the middle class. the autoworker versus the financial engineer, or employees of versus corporations, he has been consistent on whose side he is gone. if you are in the hard-working middle class, your left at the scrap heap. in the next four years, there will be more challenges, and more crisis. as good as i'm standing before you, that is what you can guarantee will happen. those challenges and those crises will determine the economic vitality of a middle class and the economic future of this country. those character, w

mitt romney's making a push in the hawkeye state. romney is now playing to win the iowa caucuses, television commercials are on the way, volunteers are arriving, and a stealth operation is ready to burst into view in the weeks leading up to the caucuses. let's go to david on that. is this going to happen out there? is he entering? >> well, yeah, he's entering, taking out ads. he's opening the campaign office. they didn't have a grand opening, he's trying to have it both ways. he wants to compete, he wants to do well. >> why is he doing this? why doesn't he take a breather? he's not a cultural conservative, he's questionable on abortion rights and other issues. why didn't he wait on new hampshire? >> my guess is he sees an opening for an early strike. there's no non-romney candidate that's really come together that has materialized, that has money, organization, can survive scrutiny. it's all as you say a pack of circus clowns. >> i've noticed that. does he have to win out there in order to win? is it win or lose for him? >> in iowa, i

i'm mitt romney.or president and the current leader in the polls for the republican nomination. you don't hear much about me in the news because the other candidates like herman cain and rick perry are hogging all the headlines with sex scandals and whoops a daisies. that's why my staff and i decided i'm too boring and i should become 15% to 17% more edgy. tonight, mitt romney is going to let loose. get ready for mitt romney, raw and unleashed. now, rick perry and herman cain are also getting attention for flubbing some straightforward policy questions. i planned my own embarrassing mistake. here it is. >> governor romney, what would be your first act as president? >> well, if elected president, my first act would be to repeal obama hair. oops. i mean obama care. what an endearing flub. >> that was jason sedakis playing mitt romney on nbc's "saturday night live". the real mitt romney is in new hampshire and is talking about job creation. take a listen. >> i tend to make america the job creating machin

>> i think in new hampshire he'll help bring down mitt romney. it might be enough to bring -- and put the two factors together, they wan bring romney down below 25% and open the door for newt. he can win two in a row. this is very strange. maybe the white house is cheering. thank you so much, you guys. alex, great going with that show of yours. >> thank you, chris. >> great show. i love it. alex wagner and sam stein. >>> when we return, let me finish with a tribute to maggie daley, the gracious first lady of chicago. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. premier of the packed bag. you know organization is key... and so is having a trusted assistant. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle...and go. you can even take a full-size or above and still pay the mid-size price. here we are... [ male announcer ] and there you go, business pro. there you go. go national. go like a pro. there you go. usa prime credit... this peggy... hi, i'm cashing in my points... peggy? no more points - coupons now. cou

for mitt romney. chris: those romney madmen who he cooked up those ads, obsession. the obama crowd may not be obsessed at least not yet but they're definitely already focused on romney. and they confess they're disappointed that romney's emerging from the primaries so unbloodied. by his opponents. >> i don't know that his positions have been scrutinized that carefully. i know governor perry has made some halting efforts to do that in these debates. but he hasn't exactly got -- gotten the gun out of the holster. chris: rough talk. gun out of the holster. but they seem to be bugged and you heard it from axelrod talking to reporters that nobody has done any damage to romney in all these fights. >> well, give romney credit and his campaign credit. he took a page from the richard nixon book from 1968. limits his access to the press. so you have to give romney a lot of credit. i think the obama people are right to be concerned about it. i am not of the group that says romney has this tied up yet. i recognize

so i don't want to say that mitt romney's going to be the nominee, but mitt romney's going to be thewhen i talked to fá democrats about that, and particularly when i talked to washington democrats about that, i keep hearing pushback from romney, as a flip-flopper, is aá good way to run against him.fá there seems to be skepticism on the democratic side that mitt romney's inability to hold a single position on any major issue is a real electoral liability for him. do you see that as a liability for him?fá or are people going to need to go after him from a different way on the democratic side? >> i think it's a huge liability. democrats may be getting confused because they don't know which mitt romney to run t( against, but of all of the mitt romneys we're presented, when we talked to voters last week in michigan, the number one thing they said they wanted was people who stood for something. ifferent . position every night.t( it's not a minor one. he's like a 360-change.w3 it's like those dolls whose head goes around. you don't know what you're jf getting. that's not what the public wan

at that campaign appearance, mitt romney refused to say that he supported the measure. even while he was there. cnn's peter handly tweeting at the time, "incredible moments in politics. romney visits ohio gop phone bank to rally troops opposing sb-5 repeal, but refuses to take a position on sb-5." after getting just flogged on the right -- flogged in the press -- for refusing to say he supported this thing, even while supposedly rallying its supporters in ohio, a day later, the romney campaign came out and said, oh, yeah, oh, yeah, oh, yeah, he's 110% behind it, we guess. so mitt romney's last known position on the ohio union-busting issue is that he's 110% for the union-stripping bill. now that that thing has lost by 22 points in the polls in ohio, stay tuned! maybe we'll get a new mitt romney position on it. even more flabber gasting is the contortion that mr. romney is now trying to do on that personhood initiative in mississippi. back in october, mitt romney appeared on mike huckabee's fox news channel program, and he told mr. huckabee that he absolutely would suppor

they have conan o'brien saying that mitt romney's biggest ideological enemy is mitt romney.tt romney quotes that may bring in video of ronald reagan saying there you go again. >> wow, that hurts. and there's going to be a year of this, right? this is the case against mitt romney. >> it not only helps the obama white house, it helps every republican candidate while this stuff runs, which, of course, the obama white house is showing they don't want to face mitt. the reason why -- right, mark? the reason they're hammering mitt right now, they're hoping they make him bleed enough that one of these second-tier -- >> or that romney emerges really weak. and they're using humor in these things, which is key, because it takes the edge off of it a little bit for people and the press. >> you also have a story up, mike, about the arizona sheriff there, joe arpiao endorsing mitt. >> exactly. this was a real help to rick perry because republicans were thinking he was soft on immigration. it's a little tough to say that now that sheriff joe, one of the toughest people on immigration in the

not many people are talking about mitt romney. not many people have talked about mitt romney.is campaign wants, isn't it? you and i talking about him, just talk about him. you know? what do you think? >> well, i mentioned there might be something to that in terms of the strategy. everyone is saying the ad that they just released. no the only in terms of ad time but news agencies are broadcasting it. it's important to realize that the public is being told throughout the day that mitt romney is caught blatantly lying. that's not necessarily somethinw that the campaign wants to be associated with, especially realizing that looking back over the last several weeks that romney has been caught in a series of lies. and once you have a reputation for dishonesty, it's hard to shake that once your integrity is undermined. >> speaking of integrity, all of them have denounced the stimuluç package and many say the economy would be in worst shape without the stimulus package. it has added as many as three million jobs in the third quarter of this year. will that make a difference to republi

mitt romney is making a push in the hawk eye state according to the "new york times" today, romney is now playing to win the iowa caucuses, television commercials are on the way, staff is arriving. that's according to the "new york times." is this going to happen out there? is he entering? >> he's entering, taking out ads. he's trying to have it both ways -- >> why doesn't he take a breather? he's not a cultural conservative. he's questionable on abortion rights and marriage and the other issues. why doesn't he wait until new hampshire? >> my guess is he sees an opening to get an early strike. there's no nonromney candidate that's really come together, that has materialized, has money, organization and can survive scrutiny. it's all a pack of circus clowns. >> i've noticed that. cynthia, does he have to win out there to win? is it really win or lose for him? >> in iowa i don't think anybody really expects mitt romney to win in iowa. he's not conservative enough for the david who -- >> why does he want to start his race with a possible loss then? >> it doesn't hurt him at all. it pays

i mean, mitt romney, it all goes to the overall narrative that there's not a lot inside mitt romney, and he in that interview really in a friendly environment with bret baier and fox news completely flubbed it. it doesn't bode well will how he'll deal with this major campaign vulnerability. >> we only have a couple more seconds before we go to newt here, but i want to ask you about mitt. cynthia it seems you can't go ha, ha, ha every time somebody catches you in a double cross. everyone time some commentator like me is going to say i don't know ha, ha, ha means when i catch you double crossing another issue. >> he was very condescending and very uncomfortable, but, you know, it reminds me that throughout the campaign season throughout these debates, common tators have talked about how polished mitt romney was, how disciplined and how well he's done in the debates. the fact of the matter was he didn't have any rivals who were anywhere near his level. once you have somebody lobbing tough questions at mitt romney, he begins to sweat. he gets snarky. he doesn't have any good answers, so

, and yes, wolf, that's also my first name. >> it is time to fact check. >> willard mitt romney said that his name has always been mitt. >> mitt romney's full name is willard mitt romney. >> mitt is his middle name. >> i'd like to see your long form birth certificate. >> willard suffers an identity crisis. >> i'm mitt romney, and yes, wolf, that's also my first name. >> he has the distinction of being the luckiest bird on the face of the earth. >>> iowa christian conservatives are uniting to stop mitt romney from winning the republican nomination, according to a cnn report. representatives from leading iowa social conservative groups held a secret meeting on monday in des moines, which i guess isn't secret anymore. and they discussed which candidate they might endorse, endorse in order to prevent romney from winning the iowa caucuses. bob vander plots, the president of the family leader, who had a representative at the meeting and invited some of the attendees said, "our concern is that if the conservatives stay as fragmented as they are, that romney could win the iowa caucuses, and i

mitt romney is that man.e been reading the 200 peaches of single-spaced research on there the john mccain campaign on mitt romney. there is no issue i can find on which mitt romney has not taken both sides. he has no core beliefs, other than himself. is he the silly putty of politicians. press on him real hard, and he'll take on whatever image you press into him, until the next group starts pressing." that is damning description of anybody. bob schrum, you ran a campaign against him. you can think of something that mitt romney would stand on and admit defeat on. >> this guy gives zip flopping a good name. he's a warp speed weather vane. he has changed on issues of policy. steve is quite right, he was trying hard in that segment. kerry got caught up in this, because he voted for the $87 billion before i voted against it. his record was a lifetime of consistency on all of the big principled issues. romney's record is a lifetime of changing as your candidate, john mccain said in 2008. and when romney said i stan

there's mitt romney who has a stable 20% to 25% support. mitt romney did a fantastic job tonight.every debate he does incredibly well, looks presidential and says the right things for the republican conservative electorate. three out of four republicans don't trust mitt romney and that's probably not going to change. the other battle, the non-romney candidate that's going to emerge and get down to a two-pym=9ñ race between romney and somebody else. newt gingrich did a fine job tonight. it was interesting to see michele bachmann is the one person who did take a swipe at him on the immigration issue and challenged him going down the same path that torpedoed rick perry's campaign a few months ago. newt took a body blow. i'm interesting to see if that makes movement in the polls. overall newt had a very grasp of the issues and he's going to probably stay solid in the polls at this point in time. >> ron, let me stay with you on this immigration question, because it seems to me that newt gingrich found a new way of talking about it. perry's way of talking about it was obviously disastro

i would rather obama win than mitt romney win. stronger in the polls and becomes more inevitable, the more you'll see the conservative base really raising their arms in protest. >> well, i heard you guys talking. it wasn't dissimilar to what we heard with mccain, right? this sort of what's going on. there was a movement on talk radio back then to try to stop mccain and it didn't work. now, part of the fact is you didn't have sort of -- there wasn't a huge echo chamber beyond talk radio to try to do that. you didn't see sort of some of the conservative television guys try to do the same thing with mccain. with romney, i don't know. i mean, it is amazing. he's the weakest inevitable nominee we've ever had in the history of american politics. we talk about him as an inevitable nominee. the white house treats him as the inevitable nominee. he kind of looks that way yet you look in the polls and the numbers don't add up. right? you just can't figure out how this guy gets the nomination unless he runs against rick perry. one thing we did

>>> and later, that devastating new dnc video against mitt romney. >> mitt romney invented obamacarebefore he was against it, you remember? >> well, that's what we did in massachusetts and that is, we put together an exchange and the president's copying that idea. i'm glad to hear that. obamacare is bad news. and if i'm president of the united states, i will repeal it. >> well, can the democrats make that flip-flop charge hurt hard enough? you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. >>> barney frank, the congressman from massachusetts, has announced we won't run for reelection in 2012. the 16-term congressman from massachusetts has been in office since 1981 and has been a major player in housing and banking policy. he's also been a lightning rod for republicans who oppose his consistently liberal positions and fear his wit. at a news conference today, congressman frank said he originally intended to run for one more term but changed his mind because of the new redistricting map. >>> another blow for mitt romney who hasn't caught on with when a moment might turn into something more. an

mitt romney still has a problem connecting with the base. >> romney is, as andrew sullivan said, makes plastic look genuine. >> i think jon huntsman is holding his head in his hands. >> for newt gingrich a month ago to capture the manchester union leader endorsement would be been incredible. >> newt gingrich was able to surge to the top of the republican primary presidential polls only after the herman cain bubble burst. sexual harassment allegations started cain's slippage in the polls, followed by repeated demonstrations by a lack of authority on the daikon fronting all of the candidates and then of course there was this. >> okay, libya. president obama supported the uprising, correct? i do not agree with the way he handled it for the following reason -- no, that's a different one. i got to go back. let's see. i got all awe of this stuff twirling around many my head. >> it turns out one of the things twirling in his head today was the certain knowledge that his campaign was going to be crushed today by ginger white. who tonight revealed details of what she says was her over 13-year o

that's the one where the comedian plays mitt romney and mitt romney says he's been told by his advisers to be 15 to 17% more edgy in the future of the campaign. in other words, making fun of the phoneyness of mitt romney as a candidate. joe mcquaid was very focused on that. and clearly, he wasn't going to put up with a mitt romney, he didn't endorse him last time, isn't sourendorsing him this ti. picked newt gingrich, because mcquaid believes is the most kn potent, strongest conservative to go after barack obama. what the conservative base is looking for is not only someone who's qualified, but someone who can really take the case in the argument for conservative values to barack obama. and newt gingrich, whatever you think about his record, is a terrific attack guy and a terrific debater, and i think that's what joe mcquaid wants to see out of the new hampshire primary. >> jennifer, remind me, because i'm always listening to what you're predicting. weren't you predicting many weeks back that romney had a problem up there? >> i think that romney really still does have a problem up there

it felt like there was a role reversal between herman cain and mitt romney. r once, cain was restrained, advocating the use of sanctions, but romney was all for invading iran. >> romney was going for the cheap shot headline that folks are playing over and over again. if you elect barack obama, this is what's going to happen. this is part of the problem of the debates as the embassador was talking about. we are not getting to the substance. when you necessary these formats, these are what they can do. say whatever they think will get them headlines because they have the benefit of not being accountable and not knowing how ridiculous most of this would be. for example, invading iran on the basics, with what troops? we know that our troops -- part of the problem is that it has overstretched our military. what troops? by the way, invading a country will cost a lot of money. is that what the american people want? i don't think so. >> that's right. moving from invasion now to michele bachmann, what was your reaction when she was supported by herman cain? >> they ref

mitt romney says he's a man of steadiness and consistency. i'm a linebacker for the chicago bears. >> i'm sure we haven't heard the last of this, if romney stays on top. >>> anyway up next the fallout from this incredible video, serious business, campus police of the university of davis, that's ahead. you're watching "hardball" on msnbc. [ knock on door ] cool. you found it. wow. nice place. yeah. [ chuckles ] the family thinks i'm out shipping these. smooth move. you used priority mail flat rate boxes. if it fits, it ships for a low, flat rate. paid for postage online and arranged a free pickup. and i'm gonna track them online, too. nice. between those boxes and this place, i'm totally staying sane this year. do i smell snickerdoodles? maybe. [ timer dings ] got to go. priority mail flat rate shipping at usps.com. a simpler way to ship. or a can of paint, you turned millions of votes, and hundreds of volunteer hours, into a real difference for over 100,000 people. what's next? tell us on facebook. the progresso chicken noodle you made is so

i think the way for mitt romney this is kind of an early warning of the kind of campaign democrats willry to run if he is the nominee. one thing about romney is, he is a strong competitor for those upper middle class voters who are socially moderate, economically right of center who moved democratic since 1992 and bill clinton. you look at the polling out this week, in pennsylvania, ohio, and florida, he does better than any other republican with those upper middle class voters. the potential vulnerability, though, is as someone who kind of embodied wall street potentially can be made to embody wall street capitalism, you saw the front page article in the new york times about the impact some of the main company buyouts in the '80s and '90s. if you make that case against romney, maybe you bring back blue collar voters who have been so important to the republican gains and were persuaded by the arguments in this ballot initiative in ohio. there have not been a lot of things on any ballot that democrats have been for that you've seen white, blue collar voters vote for in the kind of number