james gallagher with rapid rating >> coming up, one gaming reit can go up according to mizuho. the key could be a big deal for the bellagio tweet me, or should i say thread me@cnbc. we'll have that call next. diversify, not decouple. that was the message from janet yellen's visit to beijing and some tell us she's living in the past and what the latest round of disappointing data tell us about the road to recovery the dow is up 170, half a percent today and the s&p is up only five and the russell 2000, nice move, up 1.3% and the 10-year a hair above 4%. we're back after this. ♪ ♪ >>> this is "the exchange" on cnbc ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪ (vo) it's time to switch to verizon. sadie did. and now she has myplan. the first unlimited plan that lets her choose exactly what goes in it. now she gets to pick only the perks she wants and saves on every one. and with an incredible new iphone on us, no wonder sadie is celebrating. introducing myp

mizuho ups the price saying the debt card will bring more traction. >>> cnbc is live from sun valley you do not want to miss the biggest lineup including the ceos of activision blizzard, sofi and aic more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. - i got

are looking for a name that's not excessively expensive relative to the market >> we're eg ubs and mizuho bumping up you were giving yourself a lot of titles. just to play devil's advocate because the stock is up big. threads is not fully fleshed out. do you have the same concerns? >> i don't think thread is the reason the stock is up today i don't necessarily think the numbers are necessarily material the stock is fine with or without any meaningful contribution from that area. you would think about threads the same way as hardware you're talking about down 40% year over year they found a way to lose $400 million. $276 million in revenue. it's a rounding error. the advertising business is re-accelerating to rob's point that's what really matters if, in fact, something happens with threads where they can sustain the momentum they got in the first few weeks and can figure out factors that are a winning product for advertisers to stick with, that's great. it will be a long time before that's a net contributor it's more interesting for people in the media >> are you excited about the prospec

and tesla driving profitability at scale for mizuho. we will have more on tesla in just a moment.hares of tesla are down 1% this morning. and rbc capital with an out perform. rbc says bloom is positioned for growth and improving through the decade as it plays a role in the energy transition. shares up over 2%. >>> time for the global briefing a check on the headlines dominating conversations on trading desks around the world shell saying earnings will be significantly lower in the second quarter due to seasonal shift noticein the market. the company adding oil and gas production will be down from the first quarter due to field maintenance. new data showing base salaries grew at the fastest pace in may. the bank of japan viewing it as a gauge for the next policy steps. shares of alibaba popping ahead of the report that china is likely to announce a $1 billion fine against the a.n.t. group as soon as today. the move will bring an end to years of regulatory overhaul to the fintech affiliate. >>> turning to the battle with the ev old guard and new generation our phil lebeau is digging

morgan stanley raising the price target on ford and general motors plus tesla a target bump at mizuhojim, you own gm. let's start there. >> i referred to the autos earlier and here is the basic fact we have underproduced in north america and globally autos we haven't had the parts to produce them that's why dealer inventories are 50% of where they should be. the undershoot has been by about 6 million, 7 million cars in north america which means that people are driving cars longer on the road, they're wearing out. people need to replace these cars the demand is going to be there. the stocks have started to reflect that here is my thought on this i think there's still more room to run because the cash flows are there. last quarter gm bought back 5% of its shares outstanding. such that compared to a year ago 5% declared in shares outstanding. i'm expecting a beat and raise but first and foremost the shares outstanding to see how much more concentrated my ownership of a growing busines got. >> concern about rising capital. how does that impact demand? >> i'm going to do the salute like in

stock of the morn, what else, meta platforms flurry of upgrades on the back of earnings with ubs and mizuhow for your global briefing we begin with the european central bank set to issue its latest policy decision at 8:15 a.m. eastern. expectations are the central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points, christine lagarde will hold a press conference at 8:45 eastern. >>> shares of shell under pressure adjusted earnings of $5.1 billion missed analysts' expectations fuelled in part by weaker energy price, shares down over 1%. >>> samsung reporting a 95% plunge in profit for the second quarter as weak demand for its memory chips continued while the company says global demand is expected to gradually improve in the second half of the year. macro economic risk could make that rebound challenging shares of samsung right now, just off over 2.5%. >>> we want to bring your attention to breaking news out of europe. eu antitrust regulators opened an investigation into microsoft of tying its chat and video app teams with its office product, the eu says microsoft may be abusing and defending its market

let's bring in peter chatwell, mizuho head of global macro strategies training.re the bears wrong or are they going to be right soon? peter: there are elements that were right, and some wrong. the crucial one that is wrong is the inversion of the yield curve is partly driven by the massive qe that built up on the balance sheets of the fed and other central banks. and that was responsible for about 200 basis points of the inversion. we prefer to use the classical's twos tends. -- tens. you need to wait for it to invert 200 basis points, given the size of the balance sheet, for to have that meeting. the other point is that there is a common belief, driven by the fed's own analysis, that neutral rights in the u.s. are still very low. after delivering 500 basis points of hikes one would expect if the fed is right, that is going to bring a recession about. but what the fed was trying to deliver was a soft landing on and i think that the reason it looks like they will be able to deliver -- i don't think they will, but why it looks like they are on the path to deliver t

details and look at why the market's unimpressed plus a bullish call in one part of the reit sector and mizuho strike the analyst joins us to make his case and more than 100

despite this, there were some bull calls with mizuho then there's oppenheimer calling for a show me story sell call while raising the price target to $125 it's at 57% slide from here as they ascribe, quote, no value in robo taxis, robots or other ancillary businesses a little disagreement but doesn't seem like a thesis-changing quarter for tesla. and the reason people think it's selling off is because they were a little cautious that maybe more price cuts are coming although dan ives pushed back against that. >> guggenheim has been bearish already. they bumped the price target up a little bit but i think it all comes down to how much value you're willing to ascribe to the nondirect auto business because the direct auto business was shown to be in the quarter about what we thought it was going to be coming in. on a year-to-date basis they're on track for the delivery forecast for the full year, margins probably better than feared, i think is the way people are characterizing them not a lot of visibility there's going to be relief on pricing and margins. you know, adam jonas at morgan stanl

but you see the likes of mizuho being in the top 10 right now this year. own deal where they acquired greenhill as well. centerview is way up in the tables. we have seen them gain a lot of share over time of the big deals that have been announced. we seldom have a significant role not pictured in the tables is the restructuring activity. you see these banks bulking up on the work they are doing because bankruptcies are taking higher and companies are looking to restructure their debt loads. it will be interesting come the end of the year to see where the money is being made now that we know this year is awash when it comes to mergers and acquisitions, much lower than prior years, and there has not been overturned of the really big deals, with executives saying you might not see them again until next year at scale. kailey: that is with regard to the lead tables. i want to talk about the ceo's in the lead according to our poll survey in terms of who people want to work for. the answer largely is jamie dimon. sonali: it is interesting because jp morgan, part

we talked about it beginning of june, this stock starting to look interesting, think mizuho is winningcoinbase robin hood's at 12 bucks today and they report earnings in a couple weeks this is one with the momentum. >> is that a breakout, katie, in your view? >> i can't picture the chart, so -- >> we have it up, but -- >> i wish i had my glasses on. >> a double bottom >> looks like a breakout to me >> going back to how you picked all these stocks, it goes back to the notion, technical analysis, that you want to see a long base. what is the expression >> the longer the base, the higher in outer space. >> version of that and it's true. it gives it a chance to undergo accumulation, so, typically, when they move sideways, you'll start to see higher lows form, and that's your accumulation it sets it up, when sentiment does shift, like it has recently that's where you get the breakout >> all right >> well, i was going to say, louise is one of the greatest. a legend and in terms of technical trading, a woman on wall street, a pioneer, and good for her. >> yeah. >> absolutely. >> i know she's

this morning mizuho upped microsoft to 420 from 390. apple, 210 from 190.pmorgan, amazon overweight. e-commerce giant is at the top right now. they made it one of their biggest picks. these are names you could have bought in the last two years so much cheaper. almost all the folks on the street said no, stay away, too expensive. so that brings us to the real dilemma for anyone looking to get off the fence right now, what do you buy? keep in mind back in october which is now looking like the low, forward p-e ratio was 15. only 3% of the stocks in the market were trading above their 50-day moving average. this was the scenario wall street said was too expensive. don't touch this market! okay, now we're at 24 pe and 85% of the names are above their 50-day moving average. what do you do now if you want to get in? i want to bring in ubs private wealth managing director alli mccartney. this is the scenario. a lot of folks missed this. now we're here. there is a lot of anxiety you have to be in there. i know you hate high valuations although listen we know when fo

morgan stanley, mizuho both say buy since tsmc's long-term growth remains unchanged jp morganthinks gains over the next few years ak long-term hold. bottom line, artificial intelligence commute demand exceeds supply we've seen that with nvidia's conversations, but the pc smartphone business continues to remain depressed, especially in the near term. court? >> kristina, this so much. dan, you've been talking about the high premium for all things ai for some time what did you make today of some of the comments and the small percentage telephone business that exists right now? >> that's really the story i think karen has been really articulate about this the last couple of months this is going to be a secular trend that is going to play out for a very long time in the market cycle we're in right now, it's drawn a lot of enthusiasm it's pushed valuations in this space to a place that you're not usually that familiar with when it comes to a chip company hearing this from a company like that i think is really important. 6% of their sales. and you think about who are some of their biggest custom

dan of mizuho telling me some of the fears about sofi being able to sell loans were put to rest and heervices and the uptick in personal loans and home loans, as well. also some upgrades on the street we're seeing this morning. kelly, back to you >> they're using this as a student loan proxy this is very different, and when i hear personal loan demand was way up, i go, well, i guess that's good for them, but is that a good sign for the economy? >> right >> as far as the macro backdrop that could indicate different things about people needing to take out more loans. they actually have, as far as the picture this might paint about the consumer, their customer base tends to have a higher fico score something like 740. it's sort of on the amex side of things maybe the higher income, younger tech executive, for example, the income tends to be $125,000 a year and anthony noto telling me it gives a certain picture of the demographic and slice and consumer spending is strong there and they also have the debit card side of the business and they are factoring in the mild recession and still rais

joining us 1.18 trillion in assets under strategist, lpl quincy krosby and mizuho chief economist stevetoward? >> the fed is focused on wages. they don't want wages to go up anymore. what happens most companies raise their prices. it is an input cost. the fed is going to, if wages continue to climb higher that is going to lead them to raise rates again. they need to see wages down. with 3.6% unemployment however, they have the quote, unquote, luxury. one of the things we wouldn't see, he wouldn't talk about it, the strikes going on, the deals that the unions have. paul volcker must be shaking in his grave now because he fought this over and over again to break the back of those higher union deals. this is an issue for the economy. it is an issue for the market. and it is a social issue as well because what is happening, they're pointing a finger at powell saying don't you care about folks who never had higher wages suddenly they do? his countyter point to that, well, wait a minute they're paying more on their credit cards, they're paying more for their services. no, they need to have th

dominic konstam of mizuho. can i ask one thing of the audience? 15 minutes, go yesterday and listen to tom's conversation and then relisten to dominic konstam. tom: john entire up for a game today. we are just missing the legacy of the past 24 hours. talking about distance inflation where you are sticky, you come down, and you either stop or as jim talks about, rates actually go up and nobody is fondling this in. jonathan: it is amazing. total opposites. welcome to the program. the s&p 500, equities now negative. session lows are -0.62%. coming up, andrew hollenhorst with a slew of economic data that begins with an evp report. the adp report, the expectation, and the median estimate in our survey is 225,000. the previous number was 278,000. tom: michael mckee talks about the joseph survey and is looking underneath the headline data. he taught me this. the media is focused on three or four numbers and you can go to this and say, did you see the unemployment rate? but there are a lot of dynamics here. i am fascinated. you mentioned neil dutta earlie

mizuho is about 30% of their target. half percent down, so it reflects that the current japanese lending environment is difficult but it remains to see what the boj tweak will do going forward. we've seen they have announced their august home lending rates. their rates increased so going forward we could see margins strengthening further and you know, they're already high profit targets are well on track so down the road the implication there of courses that expectations for a shareholder return later in the year maybe through a buyback. when that will come will remain to be seen but this is what we are watching for going forward. haidi: what else are you watching for in terms of earnings set to report today? >> yeah, it's another huge day. we have japan's third megabanks, the biggest one. about 4:00, they have forecast a whopping 1.3 trillion yen for this year, that will be a record if they achieve that. so will be keeping our eyes on how they progress toward that target. they've given us an indication that it's probabl