thanks so much. >> thank you, carl. >> mohammed el erian. we'll have a lot more on the fed and, of course, powell's speech live from jackson hole thursday. the speech, of course, friday of this week. >> it's certainly a busy one. while the overall market has been on a downturn lately, there is one area that's seeing some green shoots. a little optimism. that is in the deal-making world. in m&a you have effectively a bidding war for u.s. steel and starboard engaged and ipos. this is good news for a market that's been effectively dormant for a year and a half. acquisitions came in at a meezly $66 billion the first quarter of the year. that's about 16% below pre-pandemic first half averages. and ipos didn't fare any better despite well-publicized debuts like the likes of caba and k kenvu. they are raking in a tenth each quarter than they did in 2021 according to kpmg. while the engines appear to be turning back on, it's not quite full speed ahead. bankers and other sources i talk with say a lot of companies are in wait and see mode. they want t

mohamed el—erian, chief economic adviser at allianz, thank you so much for your insights.avoid justice can be extradited to the us to face charges. 35—year—old american nicholas rossi is wanted for allegedly raping a woman in utah in 2008, and for multiple allegations of domestic violence. he was arrested while receiving treatment for covid—19 in glasgow in 2021. mr rossi claims he is a victim of mistaken identity. 0ur correspondent steve godden reports from scotland. from the start it seemed like a story from a hollywood film script, the american fugitive who faked his own death and hid out in scotland. mr rossi... i'm not mr rossi. nicholas rossi was arrested in december 2021 when staff on the covid ward at a glasgow hospital recognised him from an interpol wanted notice. prosecutors in utah wants to extradite rossi to face rape charges — but the man in the wheelchair has consistently claimed it's all a mistake, that he's an irish orphan called arthur knight who's never been to america. we heard in court, though, that you were identified by tattoos, or scarring. is it wo

we will get back to jay powell be good mohamed el-erian weighed in on the fed president. >> if the rightlation target is 2% and they want to get there in a credible period of time, then we are not sufficiently restrictive. if the right inflation target is about 2% given the structural changes in the way we will get there is not by announcing the new target but by following a shadow target and once we see it stable, that is the most likely outcome, then we are sufficiently restrictive. sonali: brian smedley joins us now. if you take a look at what has been said today by fed chair powell, was there anything surprising? he left the door open for future interest rate hikes and you still have a market expecting cuts into next year. >> i don't think chair powell broke any new ground today. he echoed a lot of themes he emphasized in the press conference and in the july meeting. he really put a marker down to indicate the fed is not considering revising up its inflation target. they are focused on 2% and they clearly feel the job is not done and there is more work to do to loosen up the labor ma

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among the big names saying they are "puzzled" by the downgrade by fitch is mohamed el—erian, chief economic bbc the move won't affect the us economy, but it will fuel the political debate over the country's finances so i don't think there'll be an economic or fiscal impact — by that, i mean that this announcement will not reduce investment, will not reduce the attractiveness of the us economy — so that's the economy side. and then on the fiscal side, this in itself will not increase the borrowing cost for the us — in fact, if you look at what they call credit default swaps, which measure credit worthiness, they hardly moved today. and you would expect them to move if the market was worried about that. so it will not impact the fiscal side or the economic side. but it will do is fuel an already polarised political narrative, both domestically and internationally. for some, though, the fitch downgrade has highlighted the important issue of america's soaring debt levels. us national debt is now over $32 trillion — or almost $100,000 per citzen. you know, you look at the us debt—to—gdp — in the

mohamed el-erian labeled it a strange move. he cannot imagine any serious analyst giving the decision wait, the decision to strip america of its aaa credit rating, fitch the latest. or than a decade after we saw the same thing. from s&p global ratings. . they gave three reasons, we have gone through those reasons all morning. welcome. we can do it again if you wish. refax the expected fiscal deterioration, a high and growing general government debt burden, the erosion of governance. those three issues topics we have been talking about for more than a decade. lisa: this from peter share of academy securities a monster, no one buys treasuries because of the rating. what he talked about were all of the same issues including some of the desolate debates and the lack of agreement in washington. he said, why do people buy the assets of the u.s.? not the ability to tax but the value of the land and things like drilling rights. that i think is what people are really demonstrating this morning. jonathan: well said. we can talk lots abou

economist larry summers and mohamed el-erian have criticized the move. area and called it strange while summers said there are reasons for concern about the long trajectory of the u.s. deficit in the country's ability to service its debt not in doubt. it was a decade ago with s&p but why now? jill: when you look at the statements from janet yellen and summers, there is this belief or surprise over what happened today. the other thing with s&p decision a decade ago, it was made in the wake of really stressful debt talks over the debt ceiling limit. that is sort of, you are seeing history repeat itself a bit here. you saw in the fitch statement that they pointed to the idea of erosion of governance been a factor in making this decision. we heard from biden administration officials on a call that they suspect that maybe there are elements of the donald trump january 6 pieces of this as well when you're talking about the erosion of governance. ultimately what fitch is saying is it comes down to medium-term concerns about rising debt, rising government debt a

some use of their announcements, but the question for the investor, for the markets, and you saw mohamed el-erian saying last night this will be ignored. there probably is the case, and no one is really questioning the u.s. debt as a source of collateral. you see safe haven flows all the time. obviously a big question about the dollar as a reserve currency, but that is glacial in its change. there is the belief the u.s. is rock solid. the u.k. was rocksolid a year ago and we learned otherwise in september. it's not a problem until it is a problem. alix: rocksolid a year ago? come on, rocksolid? maybe a little squishy. oliver, talking about the spend to get the growth, and this comes to where germany may be looking at the u.s. for some guidance. do large budget deficits and up helping growth? i wonder, that timeline we are looking at, if germany is salivating at the ira, with the -- what do they need to push it forward? oliver: they have done some things. with the chip industry they have put $20 billion aside to stimulate that to attract intel and tsmc and give some money to stimulate that.

mohamed el-erian, he said something that this morning he said the fed is broken house and housing and any time the fed makes interest rate moves higher, they break something. you saw bank silicon valley bank break earlier this year. now he's saying housing is broken. he saying that the fed is crushed supply and demand buyers who have the supply don't put it out on the market. i'm not i'm sorry. buyers are dealing with higher mortgage rates, khanna for the higher home prices. so bias is broken. but then the sellers who on the home they we have cheap mortgages like i have a 2 and a half percent mortgage at 3 and a half percent mortgage. i don't want to sell that another put that cash in bank account or just keep paying off that loan at a really low level for the next 15, 2025 year. so i really like el-erian statement that the house broken month over month, housing prices month to month last 2 months. but year-over-year, they're just down a little bit and we need to go down 10%. we need get out 15%. so that more people can jump in and say, you know, ham, 25 30 am have a kid. i need that

mohammed el ariane, i'm puzzled by many aspects of this announcement. what's happening here?itch taking this step now? >> and the u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen says she disagrees with this, that the action is entirely unwarranted, that the u.s. bond market's a safe liquid asset and the economy's fundamentally strong. but they're missing the point to some extent. because the timing is a bit weird as the u.s. is doing quite well. but really what this is about is a warning shot because what fitch is saying, and i've got it here, is the erosion of governance. there's been a steady deterioration in standards of governance on fiscal and debt matters. this is a sign that fitch is saying get your house in order because the level of dysfunction that you are now exhibiting, which we're seeing every day in debt negotiations in congress versus white house within the political parties, means that things are not getting better. and by the they've never gone back to the top grade for the same reasons, the s&p. the market is down today. yeah. >> the market is gown today. >> yep. >> bu

tom: does mohamed el-erian suggest we need to worry about inflation?uld push back against it and say the system will solve it. jonathan: let's turn to the price action. in the equity market almost totally unchanged on the s&p 500. talked lots about the bond market through the week. had some issuance from the treasury this week. a ton of issuance. 10-year was all right, 30 year was a struggle. yields up, treasuries down. this morning yields down by a single basis point. lisa: today we get the u.s. ppi report at 8:30. do we see the same kind of disinflation that could give everyone this warm and fuzzy feeling of a soft landing, or do we start to see it go up and concerns about commodity prices starting to reverse and inflect upward. 10:00 the university of michigan sentiment survey. interesting to see how to track the increase we see in oil prices and there is a direct inverse correlation between oil prices and sentiment. at 12:00 we need to keep and i on what is going on in the agricultural base given the increase we have seen in week prices and this in

mohamed a el-erian and george goncalves all of that more in the next hour on bloomberg t ♪ am i?limited edition smart bed. plus, free home delivery when you add a base. shop now only at sleep number. lisa: an hour away from the last trading session of the week end it's been a brutal week for tech stocks. people came out what four point 3% 10-year gilts look out. yields are coming off a bit of a reprieve after four days of hire and yields. higher than we've seen over the past 15 years. futures are down .68%. the euro weaker to the dollar as people look towards the ecb and have much they can raise weights in the face of weakness from china? strength in the u.s.. it's been really surprising to a lot of people. economists surveyed say they expect an acceleration of 1.8% in terms of the gdp in the u.s. and the third quarter. that is up from 0.5 percent projected in july. there are increasing their projection for the third quarter when the consumer just keep spending. how can this persist, driving the sense of where yields can go? if you're thinking about this cinematic terms. what do

jonathan: the brilliant mohamed el-erian on friday.tom line, there is always something to worry about. on all the economic data, on a friday. that is how bramo feels about most incoming information. cpi thursday, ppi friday. your equity market on the s&p 500 positive by zero point 2%. trying to bounce back from a four day losing streak on the s&p 500. tom: do you think earnings matter this week? it is like you mentioned earlier , there are earnings reports out there but we are beyond that. lisa: the second you say that, there is going to be that one earnings report that crystallizes the fear in market and unravels everything. keep saying that. that is exactly it. jonathan: did you see what they said? what did they do? lisa: never going to be talking about that -- now we are talking about that the next three weeks. tom: that is a big deal. jonathan: 30,000 people have lost their jobs. does that give you a macro signal on the broader economy? tom: absolutely. yellow is like the port of l.a., port of long beach. it has to deal with logist

el incidente ocurrÓ cuando los agentes responÍan a un accidente de auto. fue entonces cuando "mohamede, abrÓ fuego. pueden escuchar los disparos, que suena autoÁtico debido a lo que se llama un "gatillo binario" en su arma. el oficial jake wallin murÓ como resultado de sus heridas. la poliÍa de california detuvo al primer sospechoso relacionado con uno de los robos masivos que se produjeron la semana pasada en una tienda de lujo de la firma yves saint laurent, en un centro comercial... se trata de "ivan isaac ramirez", de 23 aÑos, que podÍa haber sido parte del grupo de Ás de 30 personas que asaltaron el local y e llevaron arÍculos valorados en unos 400 mil Ólares. shanna gardener, de 36 aÑos, fue arrestada en el estado de washington, y acusada de asesinato en primer grado, por conspirar para asesinar a su ex esposo, jared bridegan, un ejecutivo de la empresa microsoft, en jacksonville, florida... segun las autoridades la mujer y su segundo esposo, mario fernandez, planearon el crimen con frialdad. la fiscalia dijo que pediÁ la pena capital para ambos. una nueva ley de texas pretende

from the imf philadelphia fed president patrick worker, insight with bloomberg opinion colonists mohamed el. this is bloomberg. he snores like an angry rhino. you've never heard an angry rhino. baby i hear one every night. every night. okay. i'll work on that. save 50% on the sleep number® limited edition smart bed. plus, 60-month financing on all smart beds. shop now only at sleep number®. >> if there's ever a soft landing, taking six percentage points off the headline inflation rate without any increase in unemployment would sound like a soft landing to me. >> that was jim bullard, former st. louis fed president speaking with bloomberg's mike mckee yesterday. mike was in jackson hole. bullard was in purdue. he is now the dean of the business school. interesting conversation he brought up had may be a new inflation regime as well which we will talk about in just a moment with cameron crise. we are looking at the market, and where we are. just about three hours, may be less than ahead of the market open, but you can bet there will be low-volume and traders kind of sitting on their hands unt

. >> mohamed el erian is on deck to weigh in on all of that along with the strategic direction the fedd. s&p trying to hold its gains

tom: the new york jets did this in the only announcer for the new york jets can be mohamed el-erian. jonathan: i find it amazing. that's the latest from baltimore on the market and the sports side. in 48 minnis, we'll catch up with -- to talk about data ahead. cpi tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. eastern time and onto friday, it's about ppi and there is a feeling even from those, citibank expects the data to confirm the soft landing view even though they don't expected concern -- to confirm it at the end of the year. the next few months may play with the bulls. lisa: when people say the fed is following the date to come in people say the data will be a head fake and won't necessarily show a reality that will play out over a longer time. it plays into the hopes and dreams of this perfect scenario that doesn't really happen. tom: i go to three month, 12 month annualized depiction and japan will be -- jonathan: you mean china. tom: sorry, china. cut me some slack. the answers tomorrow. jonathan: it's no longer the early to thousands. china is in deflation. sometimes i wonder. tom: i thought i was

alan: lodos pumas en el egan x tras la victoria en casa, el conjunto del turco mohamed acabÓ con la rachas ganan y otros pierden pero ahÍ estÁ la situaciÓn y estos juegos de la ley infantil son maravillosos. y esta historia tambiÉn es increÍble. yisÚs: un histÓrico del ciclismo juvenil y se cometen el primer campeÓn mexicana en el tour de francia sub 23, terminÓ por segundo lugar detrÁs del italiano, la etapa se llevÓ a cabo. alan: se puso a llorar, creo que el sÉptimo latinoamÉrica que he ganado esto en el tour de francia, sumamente emocionado. no podÍa creerlo, es uno de los nuestros, felicidades, a ratito te estaremos invitando a "despierta amÉrica". chef: ese deporte es monumental, ademÁs del fÍsico obviamente pero la parte mental es sumamente importante. alan: mis respetos. el chef es multiusos. karin leÓn se une a los quintanilla, te mostramos las emociones tras cantar los temas de selena. chef: las tendencias a la hora vestir con los vestidos a la moda, ya verÁs como lucieron los famosos este fin de semana. alan: sabrÁs por quÉ cientos de miles de niÑos pierden su cobertura medicar

panama has cyclical weather changes, we do have el niÑo this year that is making more of an impact. unlikely to dry up for a long time yet. mohammedoing forward, what does this mean for supply chains? talk about it compared to what it is now and what are the concerns where it might be a few months from now? lars: in the immediate future, the main impact on supply chain, we are potentially seeing less capacity available on some routes. this is being taken care of in terms of sending additional vessels that faceless restrictions, using the old logs. it is important to recognize the canal has been announcing they expect this for 10 months. we see less capacity, what does that mean for supply chains? it means our customers and us as providers will have to look for some alternatives to make sure we keep argo flowing. it is important to recognize that having draft restrictions in the panama canal is not unusual. what is unusual this time around is that it is dragging on for longer than what we have seen in the past. but companies like maersk, we are used to dealing with this and have mechanisms in place for how we can adjust our intakes