with me now to give his thoughts is noted economist mohamed el-erian, and he joins me by skype from newportcalifornia. mohamed, welcome to the show. >> thank you. gerry: let me start by -- you won't be able to see it, but you'll be familiar with the numbers. estimate by jpmorgan this week that shows for gdp and unemployment this year first quarter gdp growth -10%, second quarter, -40%, and the unemployment rate they say going to 20% in the second quarter and then falling back down to 8.8 percent. again, nobody has a clear idea yet because the impact is so vast and so unpredictable. but what's your overall assessment of just how much damage this is going to the economy right now. >> so like thaw say, gerry, precise estimates are really hard, but this is by far the biggest hit to u.s. economy and the global economy that we've seen since the great depression. it will make the great recession look like a soft blow, and we all know what we felt then. and i think the one number you cited that's really important is in just three weeks 17 million people joined the up employed -- unemployed which is

robert koenigsberger, mohamed el-erian. this is bloomberg. ♪ you doing okay? yeah.s moving thing never gets any easier. well, xfinity makes moving super easy. i can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. wow, that is easy. almost as easy as having those guys help you move. we are those guys. that's you? the truck adds 10 pounds. in the arms. -okay... transfer your service online in a few easy steps. now that's simple, easy, awesome. transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. visit xfinity.com/moving today. shery: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm shery ahn. amanda lang will join us in a few minutes from toronto. welcome to bloomberg markets. we are joined by our bloomberg and bnn bloomberg audiences. here are the top stories we are following from around the world. u.s. stocks sinking on the heels of their best weekly performance since the 1970's. the s&p 500 down more than 2% at session lows. crude oil prices gaining ground as the world's top producers agreed on an output cut. the cdc says the u.s. is

mohamed el-erian, also appreciate your time and perspective and your smarts on all of this.ry soon. >>> when we come back, turbulent times for the airlines some even stopping service to areas of the country that are coronavirus hot spots. we'll take a closer look at that sector and speak to the former ceo of spirit airlines a rhee minder for you watch or listen to us live at any time on the bccn app we'll be right back. ighthouse has weathered many storms. seeing the break in the clouds before anyone else. together, we'll weather this storm. when yowhat do you see?itical issues facing our world, we see a billion more people breathing free. we see access to fresh food being the global norm, not the exception. we see homes staying cooler, without the planet getting warmer. at emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved. but when i started seeing things, i didn't know what was happening... so i kept it in. he started believing things that weren't true. i knew so

. >>> we have a huge lineup of squawk newsmakers including mohamed el erian, richard preston and dr. scott gottlieb starting in a few minutes. andrew >> thanks, becky hope everybody had a great weekend. let's bring everybody an update on the pandemic. of course, the number of confirmed cases in the united states now more than 557,000 and the death toll is more than 22,000 there are 190,000 cases in new york state with more than 9300 deaths that means new york alone has reported more cases than any foreign country, to put it in perspective. a sign of hope, though, in new york city the number of daily icu admissions and intubations showed a downward trend using a three-day average. new york mayor de blasio said saturday that public schools would stay closed for the remainder of the academic year, but shortly after, a sort of back and forth with the -- with governor cuomo, new york governor cuomo said the announcement was bill de blas blasio's opinion and there was no official decision yet cuomo said new york may close public schools but it would do that in cooperation with other locali

coming up, mohamed el erian will join us. he originally warned not to buy the coronavirus dip. r fostocks as we get ready for the weekend. stick around, we'll be right back >>> investors bracing for the monthly jobs report. what you need to know coming up. >>> plus, the small business lending program will be running today, but will it work? we'll speak to an insurance expert about loans and what businesses can do to stay afloat. >>> and wall street set to end the week on a sour note as the number of global covid-19 cases surges past 1 million. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now >>> good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen this morning let's take a quick look at u.s. equity futures let's see where things stand this friday ahead of the jobs number that jobs number not necessarily representative of where we are dow looks like it would open down 229 points after a good day yesterday in part because of some comments the president made to joe kernen later on twitter about the idea that potenti

as the economist mohammed el—erian points out on twitter, the next quarter could see the us economony much as a0%. here he is outlining what this will mean. it's a battle against global depression. and what today's number tells you is two things. one is the urgency of containing the damage so that short—term hits don't become long—term hits. and that's — and the second issue tells you that we've got to build a runway for medical advances to be able to sort out the lives versus livelihood equation. and importantly, notjust to win the war against the depression, but to secure the peace. we failed to do that in 2008. we won the war against the depression then, but we didn't secure peace of high, sustainable, inclusive growth. today's number tells you that even now, we have to think about winning the war and securing the peace. despite the threats to economic growth, the us federal reserve has said they will be keeping interest rates between zero and 0.25%. former treasury secretary larry summers says that containing the coronavirus outbreak is still america's primary concern. we do know

investors focused on earnings, oil, potential coronavirus treatments we'll speak to mohamed el erianssues and so much more take a look at futures on this friday morning we are in the green across the board. dow up 106 points. s&p up 13 points nasdaq oni 20 inpengpots higher. "squawk" returns in just a moment there's tv. and then there's x1, featuring the emmy award-winning voice remote. access to your favorite apps, including netflix, prime video, youtube and hulu. all without changing passwords and inputs. the most 4k content and movies and shows on any screen. the best entertainment experience all in one place. >>> welcome back to "squawk box. making headlines, going the is set to cut marketing budgets by as much as half. in addition, directors are being warned with hiring freezes for full time and contract workers last week alphabet ceo said the company would pull back on some of its investments amid the covid crisis >>> let's talk a little earnings this morning it's at the center of the conversation this week we're hearing from two more dow components american express shares are

very sought after views from gramercy funds robert koenigsberger, along with mohamed el-erian. to come in the next 30 minutes. let's get a quick check on the markets.

. >>> then mohamed el erian will be up.wn by 26% just today. >>> first though before we get to a break, let's take a look at those oil prices right now it looks like things for wti, we did see them below $14 a barrel this morning. in fact, now we're below $13 a barrel down 29% to $12.89 a barrel this is something to watch we'll talk to momeabhad out this and much more. you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc for many of our members, being prepared... won't be a new thing. and it won't be their first experience with social distancing. overcoming challenges is what defines the military community. usaa has been standing with them, for nearly a hundred years. and we'll be here to serve for a hundred more. >>> welcome back to "squawk box. cnbc has partnered with acorn. it's called invest in you, ready, set, grow the recently passed c.a.r.e.s. act can help people access retirement money penalty free. we are joined by sharon epperson with that story. shar sharon. >> reporter: andrew, if someone has contracted the covid-19 or if your

scott gottlieb later, fanatics executive michael ruben will join us and mohamed el erian, tom friedmand new jersey governor phil murphy all of those names to get to coming up. >>> furs, let's get to the markets. u.s. equities, dow indicated up by 250 points. s&p up by 30 points. the nasdaq up by 111 last week was the first down week we had seen for the market in three weeks if we see gains from the markets today, the dow like it is up right now, that would be the fourth day in

mohamed el-erian joins us this morning. also cnbc's mike santoli i don't know what we should be taking away from these earnings, mohamed. in some cases we had great earnings we can look at netflix earnings. they talk about things being pulled forward companies on the other end that is taking a complete bath here what i can't under about any of it, has the market decided not just this quarter's earnings are irrelevant but we should look away if you well for the next six months and possibly even 12 months and we're already into 2021 in meaningful ways. is that what's happening in terms of how the market looks at these numbers. >> first on the takeaway, it's dispersion majority of companies are telling you they don't have visibility at&t suspending guidance so many others, dupont, et cetera then you have a few that are doing well chipotle well, netflix well. they tell you there are silver lines in this earnings season. on the other side the leading indicator airlines, delta is telling you it's about cash burn it's about how muc

mohamed el erian, always good to see you and talk to you.y much. >> thank you have a good weekend, everybody. >> you, too. stay safe and healthy out there. becky? >> thanks. >>> when we come back, an inside look at the growth of remote work in this time of pandemic. microsoft's president brad smith is going to join us to talk about that and much more. >>> later this hour we'll bring you an exclusive interview with new york fed ral reserve president john williams on all the shots the nation's central bank has fired at the coronavirus. >>> as we head to break, let's take a look at shares of boeing. that company will resume limited commercial jet proctn tduioinhe seattle area on monday following a three-week shutdown. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. when you look at the critical issues facing our world, what do you see? we see breakthrough medicines getting to patients in record time. we see harnessing natural gas unleashing the promise of clean energy. we see engineers simulating the future to improve today. at eme

we're join by mohamed el-erian mike santoli, mohamed you want to talk about remdesivir, maybe that changesr not? >> look, it's great news all of us want health advances and the gdp number tells you why we want it it's bigger than expected contraction suggests that a minus 40% contraction in the second quarter is not out of the question just very quick back of the envelope calculations show that that's the extent of the hit of the gdp. so the southeastern we can get over this health emergency, the sooner we can ensure we don't get longer term damage to not just growth but growth potential. >> mike, how far do you think this takes things in terms last time gilead was out that was a pretty big number in terms of advance but now at a higher level now. maybe we're getting close to a high end of a range before we know more? >> starting to feel that way roughly upward bias. for benchmarking yesterday high for s&p was 2911 this pre-market pop we didn't get to yesterday morning's high. the market has been voracious, we're getting sooner than later side as prices get higher, cyclical stocks linked t

most pessimistic forecasts which we keep hearing about endlessly at this point let me bring in mohamed el erian we had that bounce back, not last week but the week before, and then we had last week's move down, which it was down about 2.5%. in your view, we're going to continue to have this grind lower because the market can't anticipate a lot of the fundamentals and unknowns that are still going to happen with the coronavirus and with the pandemic so i'm wondering whether you still feel that way or whether you'd look at last week as constructive because everybody, watching the task force, we knew this was going to be the worst week ever. the market managed to go down 2.5% and it's getting back some 4% today are you still of the opinion that we continue to grind lower to the old lows and then set some new lows? or are you feeling better this morning? >> so, a, i am feeling better. qualified. let me explain why i'm feeling better because i think it's really important we're having a bounce on medical issues, not on policy issues, not on technical, on medical that's important for two reasons, joe

in fact, there's a fantastic op-ed piece written by mohamed el-erian that i will recommend to you.d passover, dani burger. what kind of asset behavior can we expect over this extended weekend? it looksst of all, sick a lot of traders will try to front-run the early close. there's a lot of things that could happen over the holiday extended weekend and you don't want to leave anything on the table just in case something happens, which is becoming more and more possible with volatility in the market. we are likely to see volatility. volumes are low. some people are already likely off on holiday. tomorrow is a weird one, because it is a holiday for financial markets in the u.s., but is not a federal holiday, which means data will still be coming in. we have cpi data, and the u.s. reopens on monday, but europe does not, meaning european traders will likely have to play a game of catch up. matt: let's take a step back and talk about the bear market we've seen, the bear market rally we've seen. how does it compare with others? dani: one of the weird things that's happened, typically in be

withg up on "the open" jonathan ferro, mohamed el-erian. this is bloomberg.w york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. let's take a look at the price action. equity futures drifting higher on the s&p 500, up around .6%. in the bond market, unchanged for 10 year treasuries. yields going nowhere at 0.62%, and did the commodity market, the crude recovery continues. let's begin with the big issue. i spend every thursday morning almost embarrassed talking about an equity market that continues to drift higher as we continue to see damage done to the labor market. it has taken a month to destroy what took 10 years to build. i get it because i have said it before. this equity market is anticipatory. this about pricing in the hope of the future. what kind of future are you pricing in? what kind of recovery can we have when the damage being done to this economy is so g

that in models stay with us because we are going to speak with alliance chief economic adviser mohamed el-erian next to walk through the rally and if he agrees with with katherine's strategy to sell into it. back in a minute. children should wash their hands after coming in from outside, before eating, after coughing, sneezing or blowing their little noses. second, limit all crowds and explain that no one is shaking hands or hugging because that is how germs can spread. what changes need to be made now, i encourage parents to let children know this will not last forever. i urge you to stay connected to family and loved ones, stay safe and remember while many of us are apart, we are all in this together. please be sure to follow cdc guidelines which can be found at coronavirus.gov along with other information and resources. maria: welcome back, markets this morning pointing to another jump in stock predictions ahead have had trading to look we've got real volatility, but we are looking another another the gain this morning dow industrials up 727 points, 3% s&p up 37 nasdaq up 209 on top of gig g

. >> mohamed el-erian expressed one of the reasons fed moved into markets establishes these lending facilitiesvariety of different types of credit, or loans, is to get to send the message to private investors and private sector it is involved in these markets, and to get private investors in as well to keep essential the money flowing for lack of a better phrase. >> well, i do think that in part it was to encourage banks actually to participate in federal funding programs. will remember the fed is essential facilitating the loans, the banks are making through these programs, as you mentioned the ppp, or paycheck protection act, so essential -- protection program excuse me essential the fed is trying to eliminate the concern that banks are going to be stuck, holding low interest rate loans so they are allowing them to remove them he from capital liquidity requirements taking funds to make additional loans into marketplace to small businesses so fed is providing that confidence, that backstop to these programs in order to get that credit slowing flowing to small and immediate yemen businesses as

maria: mohamed el-erian joining us allianz. >> how quarantine is impacting business of takeout in a bigre. when you own horses, you don't just own horses. you own a pasture. a fence. a barn. an arena. more fence. and hay. lots of hay. so you need a tractor built to do it all. and do it right. you need the power to handle anything. you need versatile performance matched-attachments. you need the #1 selling compact tractor for a decade. the kubota l series tractors. >> welcome back, food delivery sales on the rise, takeout new normal more people ordering in and picking up lauren simonetti with details on that business, good morning. >> hey maria where are we now with coronavirus? right at least a month at home cooking three meals a day i don't know about you i am out of things to make sick of cooking, more people probably more comfortable with the new normal, order food online and get it delivered or go pick it up you know the restaurant industry is as well national restaurant association says about 60% of restaurants are open to take out, open to deliver as they have seen four in 10 of r

market and economy let's welcome in mohamed el-erian. he's a chief economic adviser. enthusiast morning. >> good morning, becky >> thoughts on the banking sector we knew these reserves would be taken. the amounts are all over the map. jpmorgan may be the most cautious and kind of conservative on this entire situation. what do you think now that we've had so many of them reported, jpmorgan, wells fargo, citi and bank of america. >> they are consistent on all three messages one is very large loan loss reserves jpmorgan took 8 billion, citi took 7, bank of america took 5, these are large numbers and expecting what jpmorgan called a severe recession the second the thing is trading is great margin is very strong month and not surprisingly it exploded and banks were in the middle the third is re-opening an old debate narrow banking versus universal banking. turns out it helps to be diversified. which is the opposite of what the discussion was back in '08-'09. really interesting but the message is very consistent >> do you think this was a case of them actually seeing a huge

look being like world war iii but, you know, i said i was the optimist i was the opposite of mohamed el eriana flu. it's obviously a flu and we can see the pattern around the world. it goes away i said rates are really low. tax cut for consumers and businesses, it will help the economy. you've had a crash in oil, commodity prices also a tax cut gasoline prices are, what, $1.81. stimulus kevin o'leary mentioned 13% of gdp here almost 19% in japan. we are over stimulating the economy so that will get us going again. then medical breakthroughs was another big positive for me. if you are an optimist, you'll say we'll have a vaccine whether it's 12 months, 15 months, 18 months what's the slope look like depends how we re-open the economy. we have to do it zip code by zip code let the mayors help, let the governors do their job i think people at risk should stay at home you should social distance and look around the whole world today to see best practices around the world on how to do this last night there was a call among several real estate executives that have been asked by the trump administrat

scott gottlieb later, fanatics executive michael ruben will join us and mohamed el erian, tom friedman, and new jersey governor phil murphy all of those names to get to coming up. >>> furs, let's get to the markets. u.s. equities, dow indicated up by 250 points. s&p up by 30 points. the nasdaq up by 111 last week was the first down week we had seen for the market in three weeks if we see gains from the markets today, the dow like it is up right now, that would be the fourth day in a row for gains we've seen for the dow in a row, the first time that's happened since february this is all happening despite crude oil prices the treasury shows you the ten-year is yielding 0.627%. there are crude oil prices, generally when we've seen pressure on crude oil, that's put pressure on equities as well that's not the case this morning. wti is indicated down by over 15%. that's a decline of $2.66 to $14.28 a barrel. brent crude down by just 3.3%. it's now trading at $20.73 andrew >> meantime, an update on the pandemic and the numbers we bring you every morning about where we stand here's where we do