we will discuss it live with mohamed el-erian. later we will talk with the ceo and cofounder of ie x on becoming the newest stock exchange in the united states. first, jon has a check of the markets. jon: global risk assets rallying across the board. check out the mood. here we are, if you hire the united states across the board. you're a-dollar at the moment at around 1.1328. equities pushing higher with the ftse pushing up, 86 points. it is a strong pound equity rally. let's go around the world and check in with our bloomberg team for an in-depth coverage of our top story spirit nejra cehic is in london on the latest brexit poll. guy johnson has details on the pound rally. and on janet yellen testifying later this week. >> let's check in with the london guests. nejra cehic begins team coverage with a shift in the polls. a shift in the polls -- break it down for me. nejra: we had a couple of polls out over the weekend. the main one the markets are focusing on is this poll showing a three percentage point lead for remain. there wa

i want to bring in allianz advisor mohamed el-erian. speak to our investor audience what they should do and shouldn't do?? >> think of this is major shock. it's a shock that will not dissipate anytime soon. it will have political ramifications. we're seeing some of those. it will have economic and financial ramifications. your investors should recognize we have entered a period of intensive financial volatility. there will be opportunities for those who have cash. prices will overshoot. we were already seeing that happening. and it will happen even more as margin calls go out. people are forced to close levered long positions. there will be opportunities but patience is really important in this market environment. liz, well i just want to let you know, we heard a whoop for the moment on the floor, the dow is no longer negative for the year but it is touch-and-go. we're down about 564 points. certainly off the lows of the session. interesting what you're saying, it is a major shock that won't dissipate anytime soon. you think there may b

here is the initial reaction from mohamed el-erian. mohamed el-erian joins me now live from irvine. julie was giving us the market reaction, and yes, a swift reaction. stocks fell,nked, but then they came back a little bit. a big move in the german 10-year. the yield hitting a record low. right now at a low of 6.5 basis points. of course, you have the yen gathering a lot of strength here. these are outsized moves. are they simply following the nonfarm report, the gains of the fed, or does this directly influence the federal reserve and what they decide to do next? mohamed: the direction of the moves makes sense. at face value, this report means the fed is less likely to hike rates in june. in fact, the probability, the a hike probability of has gone from over 30% to below 5%. you see the currency markets moving as a result of that with the dollar weakening. the direction of the moves makes sense. scarlet, i'm not sure the magnitude makes sense. that is a massive move. as julie said, the two-year moved by 10 basis points on that report. i think that tells you something more about liq

joe: mohamed el-erian, thank you for joining us.: a great read that everyone should check out. a british will you kc economic revival as it leaves the block? we will hear from nigel farage who says the country just needs to risk the opportunity. ♪ carol: welcome back to bloomberg markets. we want to a situation in turkey -- two explosions taking place at istanbul's airport causing multiple injuries. is according to turkey's interior ministry. it is not immediately clear what caused the blast. there are some explosions likely caused by hand grenades the state -- and the state broadcaster says it took place at a check point for arriving passengers. an evolving situation and we will continue to monitor it and of it you as more is known. matt: u.k. independent party leader, nigel farage thomas is the european union has more to lose if it hinders trade with countries. spoke with ryan chilcote earlier today and said he is not concerned about the economic chaos the brexit has created markets. nigel: let's get a few things straight. the ste

bloomberg columnist mohamed el-erian.urn, hear more brexit reaction from business leaders around the world. stay with us on bloomberg television. >> june 23 needs to become a national bank holiday, and we will call it independence day. [applause] >> i think this country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction. >> britain will continue to be a great european power. ♪ erik: i'm erik schatzker. you are watching our special coverage of the brexit, britain out. leaving the eu will be a messy process and business leaders may not know the full impact on their companies for months or possibly years. but already they are taking , stock of the situation and trying to come to grips with an uncertain future. >> i'm afraid that this is definitely not a good day for europe. there is no doubt the consequences will be negative on all sides. as a britain and the european, it especially saddens me that the european idea obviously has lost its attractiveness to so many of my fellow countrymen. that is a clear signal to the eu

bloomberg view columnist mohamed el-erian.n, hear more brexit reaction from business leaders around the world. stay with us on bloomberg television. ♪ >> june 23 needs to become a national bank holiday, and we will call it independence day. [applause] david cameron: i think this country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction. boris johnson: britain will continue to be a great european power. ♪ erik: i'm erik schatzker. you are watching our special coverage of the brexit, britain out. leaving the eu will be a messy process and business leaders may not know the full impact on their companies for months or possibly years. but already, they are taking stock of the situation and trying to come to grips with an uncertain future. >> i'm afraid that this is definitely not a good day for europe. there is no doubt the consequences will be negative on all sides. as a briton and a european, it especially saddens me that the european idea obviously has lost its attractiveness to so many of my fellow countrymen. that is a cl

from london, mohamed el-erian coming up on the radio." -- good morning. ♪ jonathan: voters are heading to the polls to see if britain should leave or remaining in the european union. david: bank of america is under the national spotlight and given us come later today. climbed to akets two-week high. they had for a fifth straight day of gains. jonathan: is very warm welcome to bloomberg. my colleaguee david westin who is in new york. that: we are coming to the dachshund of a big week. we will dissect

joining us is mohamed el erian, former pimco ceo. pleasure to see you. thanks for joining us. >> thank you, maria. >> a sharp reaction to the brexit on friday with markets down across the board. let me kick it off right there. do you think the selling continues when markets reopen tomorrow sm. >> there was a chance it does because a lot of people have gotten overconfident with the notion that british voters would not opt for brexit. so you have a lot of long accounts that received margin calls that will be forced to sell. having said that, there's a lot of cash on the sideline, so expect a lot of volatility and more selling in the days ahead. >> we'll probably see more selling. are we going to see the back drop get worse? do you expect we'll see a global recession or a recession now in the eurozone? >> so, on a stand alone basis, think of the following, the most intense developments will be political. you're seeing major turmoil in the united kingdom, as you correctly stated. not just to conservatives, the labor. scotland is looking to seek independence

those are just a few of the points mohamed el-erian made.i has decided not to let china into its benchmark indices. we saw an initial decline of 1.1% of the shanghai composite but it is likely that state back to buying has boosted the index. policymakers need to make additional improvements to accessibility of the shared market. a disappointment for those in china who were expecting to be accepted into msci. crude oil down for the fifth day, the longest losing streak since february. wti down 6%. inventory rose 1.2 million barrels last month. later today we get the eia inventory data, stockpiles likely declined by 2.3 3 million barrels last week. it is up by 80% from a 12 year low in february. francine: mark barton with your asset check. u.k. chancellor george osborne well-worn that leaving the eu -- will warn that leaving the eu could spark an economic crisis. remain supporters are battling to turn around a referendum six of theich has opinion polls giving a lead to the exit campaign. we welcome matthew good when and graham sharp -- and will

coming up, a conversation with mohamed el-erian. an important op-ed on "bloomberg view." london.ek from francine, myself, michael mckee, john farrell, matt miller, a cast of thousands -- from london. ♪ francine: welcome back. it is "surveillance." tom keene in london for the week. we are wrapping up our coverage -- ramping up our coverage toward brexit and remain. tom: it is moving coverage. francine: it is time for my morning must-read. tom: please. francine: it goes back to risk and that we do not talk about china as much as we used to. 's risk suddenly dissipate and might it return? this is asking what has happened to china. nothing has really changed, does it all have to do with the fed? mike amey is with us. everyone was freaked out about china in davos. they add stimulus and then we forget about china. mike: i think there are two things going on. we had the great uncertainty, the devaluation -- nobody expected it. that put it center stage. more recently, i think the stability of the dollar is probably key. china comes into play internationally. the yen rallying hard. the do

mark: mohamed el-erian their speaking on "bloomberg oh " earlier.et yellen testifying before congress. we will have full coverage of that event on bloomberg television starting at 10:00 a.m. eastern, 3:00 p.m. london time. we are literally nine minutes away from the end of the monday session. what a day it has been. much more ahead on "bluebird markets" today -- "bloomberg markets" today. equities rising, the dollar slipping on speculation the you cable vote to remain -- that the u.k. will vote to remain in the eu. ♪ mark: live from london and new york, i am mark barton. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn and you are watching the european close on "bloomberg markets." time for a look at the bloomberg business flash. sales plunging at caterpillar, the world's largest maker of form and mining equipment. the global three-month rolling sales are down 12% in april. that is the hardest hit market, down 31% there. they been hurt by falling commodity prices. apple may be closer to opening stores in india. they have lifted a major roadblock in policies that require r

guy: something of a theme there. , el-erian is the allianz chief economic -- mohamed el-erian is thesor. what does carney need to do next? mohamed: he needs to make sure banks have enough liquidity. he needs to get on the phone and talk europe into developing a plan b the house some sort of association agreement. the worst thing in the markets is to continue having this notion that there is nothing to replace eu membership. coming up with a plan b will be critical. jonathan: it does not look like we will get a plan b for a long time. they have not triggered article 50 in the treaty. there is talk of waiting until october for the conservative party conference until we get a prime minister and then before that article is actually triggered. how significant is that? mohamed: that would be really bad news. markets do not respond well to vacuums. if there is no credit he on what institutional arrangement -- no clarity on what institutional arrangement could, next, you have the worst arrangement which -- is critical in the weeks to come if this financial shock does not develop into a bigge

david: tom at el-erian. -- mohamed el-erian. here is what was said to bloomberg . be as honest and transparent as possible, and because of that, it is being accused of being not just inconsistent but a slave to the market. david: janet yellen will be testifying before the senate at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. -- carryingurrying the full testimony here on bloomberg. vonnie: now, mark crumpton. are learning more about the orlando nightclub shooter omar mateen. they have released partial transcripts of his calls with 911 and crisis negotiators. reporter: he identified himself as an islamic soldier, the -- pledged allegiance to a terrorist organization which is bent on killing americans. mark: still, the u.s. says he , andadicalized in the u.s. he told a crisis negotiator that the u.s. needed to stop bombing iraq and syria. republicans on capitol hill are expected to block the two democratic proposals to expand background checks and banned gun sales to suspected terrorists. others are offering their own, which is also expected to be blocked. will make a he decision thursd

. -- mohamed el-erian says the fed risks becoming a slave to the market as it react to short-term limitersl mckee joins us for more on what to expect and luke johnson is also with us. we are looking at the function that mark was showing us. first of all, what does this tell us? i keep on being told to ditch the plot. that is what a lot of folks on wall street are saying because the green line is where people think it should be and the purple lines down below are really interest rates say it should be. there is a big difference even though the fed came down at its last dating, it is still more optimistic about where the u.s. economy is going and she will be asked about that. i am not sure how much new we will learn but the members of congress love their opportunity in the spotlight. francine: the one thing we are still uncertain, we have to look at the macro landscape from outside including brexit, which we will get back to you, but how much will she once again talk about the jobs number that was worse than expected. michael: why was one number so important to the fed? right before that num

matt: and at the bottom of the hour, mohamed el-erian will join us.hour from the close of trading in the u.s. stocks

mohamed el-erian there are lots there are-- erik: lots of people telling us they know what will happen does not make them right. there always are. walter conch right once famously -- ifif you do not you're not confused, you do not know what is going on. know how anybody can be itfident that they know what means. isaac economies will slow down. -- i think economies will slow down. there will be a slowdown in membership and they will do less onch could their own. there will be a psychological effect as people spend less. erik: why do you say that? howard: are people going to live differently? are they going to produce l ess and buy less? even if there are crashes in the stock exchange, people outside are still buying hot dogs. psychological contagion, which should not be underestimated, i don't think this is a fundamental catastrophe. i think there will be very strong societal and political and geographic ramifications, that i just -- i have trouble viewing it as a financial catastrophe. if things are going to be confusion, which i will translate as uncertainty, should be the order of th

mark: mohamed el-erian who writes on bloomberg like you do, he said that factors in transit to londonill make sure that it is still an attractive destination for financial come needs. , language,n universities -- is that not a valid point? barry: it is a valid point of intel be line in the sand where sudden -- i would point out until the line in the sand where the administrative complications for being an employee change. cheaper,ns out to be simpler, easier, to relocate -- ifeadquarters hypothetically this gods have another independence vote and say we hitched our wagon to the wrong artists and stay in the eu , you and up with edinburgh as a very cosmopolitan university bankthat is happy to take headquarters. we mentioned earlier in and frankfurt. let's not forget geneva, switzerland. given the tax changes in the united states, they would love to attract banking business and employment back to their city. i think that it is a danger to assume that these jobs will stay in london. and a lot of big changes are potentially coming. they put london at risk of being no longer the european c

mohammed el-erian discusses what it means. >> china is subject to global standards.improved the functioning of the market, things like transparency, accountability. so the whole idea that msci could act as a force improving the functioning of the market and that the not going to happen as quickly as would have. happened otherwise. >> as for the oil market. strong gains early last week, quite some distance in the rear view mirror. albeit we're still around 48 bucks. we're not moving away too sharply from the $50 market. and anothers, down 1.15% in wti. we've seen the equities bounce back globally. not much move. 1.63 on the u.s. ten-year. with markets globally. the dollar index was up 1.6% yesterday. more because of risk aversion. safe haven trades into the u.s. dollar. and hawkish out of the fed today. just unwinding that today. particularly japan, japan bouncing back, 0.6%. gold prices looking at benefited in recent days against rinksk aversion. decent gains in the last few weeks. >> calm before the fed this afternoon. we're wrapping up a two-day fed meeting. the wh

top economist mohamed el erian

still with us, our guest host, mohamed el erian. so drew, you have been patiently waiting.nions about this. is there a reason for cynicism or frustration? >> if my own view, as you know, higher rates would stimulate activity. let's assume janet yellen doesn't believe that, because i think that's a fair assumption. the biggest concern i have are the massive shifts in the fed's thought process that seem to occur based on single data points. it's worrisome to me that the fed is data point dependent instead of data dependent. in that you can get a massive swing on a theoretical construct of something like the real neutral fed funds rate over a six-week period. which strikes me as kind of -- the reason you have the theoretical construct is you don't have massive swings like that. >> did it surprise you, the drop in 2018 that they took 60 basis points off the expectation. that's in three months? what happened. >> it's four weeks from when they were saying you should be thinking about june or july. so i mean, the problem i have is just that the reactions that are occurring based o

mohammed el-erian joining us. stocks and market battered because of the british vote. worst levels morning i should point out. we had been down almost double that. european averages are all down better than 2% as you can see there and it is being lead by the financials. we'll have much more on the market reaction after this short break. stay with us. >> welcome to a tennis channel wimbledon court report for fox business. i'm andrew krasney. the 130th edition of the championship at wimbledon gets underway on the grass on monday. once again putting the all england club center stage in the tennis world. world number one and defending champion novak djokovic headed to london full of conference after taking his first french open crown. the sec b is looking for his fourth wimbledon title. on the women's side she has already reached finals in wimbledon. after the victory in paris she is looking to go one better in 2016 as always serena williams will be the woman to beat at the glass court. wimbledon prime time on tennis channel has all the reaction and analysis from london. i

mohamed el-erian spoke to bloombergtv last week and saying banks.ghtmare for the stephen gallo, this is a great financial experiment. will japan actually deliver? stephen: there are question marks over that already. i think you already have the answer, the increase in the consumption tax was pushed back -- you have the answer to that. it is inherently difficult for net creditor economies in this environment. if the central bank encourages outflows, you get short-term weakness in your currency, but the minute global markets go into turmoil, a lot of the capital comes back on shore. tom: to keep the newtonian angle going, does japan have the inertial force to reverse the yen to a weaker again -- yen? or do they need a market hope and prayer of flows? stephen: i think they need to intervene when the flows are going with them. tom: interesting. stephen: when brexit risk is not on the horizon, when global markets are not in turmoil. u.s.terest rates in the are in an uptrend, if they are moving higher, that is a better time for the boj to intervene -- if

radio, asn bloomberg they vote in the united kingdom, a conversation with mohamed el-erian.arlier this week was absolutely brilliant. i am tom keene with francine lacqua on "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ tom: it is the litmus paper of the system, certainly the litmus paper of remain and leave with the united kingdom. 1.4679.ow sterling, churningxchange today with sterling. i will call that churning as well. up on bloomberg , it is david westin and jonathan ferro. , you will talk about brexit and also with a big banker. jon: it is the calm potentially before the storm. we are spending ahead to fed chair janet yellen. francine: thank you so much, jonathan ferro. now, the big question come friday morning, the day after the referendum, what happens to the u.k., what happens to the eu? us still is former bp ceo lord browne, and policymaker andrew sentance. planbrow do we have a , do we have a plan b? the answer is we do not know. we do not fully know yet. tom: excuse me. can europe be pro-business? in america we get headlines they do not like google, microsoft, maybe they do not

coming up, mohamed el-erian weighs in on the future of the u.k. and the eu coming up at 3:30. markets. ♪ e >> it is 7:00 p.m. in the city 2:00 in new york. >> this is bloomberg markets. matt: live from london, i'm matt miller. david: here is what we are following this hour. markets are higher today following the brexit slide. bonnie: the u.s. commercial real estate market could see some bumps in the road. we will tell you which areas could be hardest hit. matt: nike reports earnings after the bell. the company is dominant in north america. be slipping as under armour makes inroads. david: let's go to the et

it is time for my morning must-read in a picked out something by mohamed el-erian.imagining the eu in three years and here's what he is imagining. they have regained their financial footing as well as its national confidence. a smaller and more unified european union now functions in a more coherent fashion. .ith us is andrew wilson hunted el-erian basically says that however this would be the best possible outcome, not that likely and they would have lost so much influence in the global world. on a grade of one to 10, how much do you worry about the future of the u.k.? you are more on the optimistic side, that can things turned ugly if article 50 is triggered at the wrong time? i think it is the whole negotiations and this is what is unsettling markets, the uncertainty around that. exactly what role is the u.k. going to play in europe? it is still the biggest trading partner by a long ways to that will not change overnight. there is going to be so much focus around the access the u.k. gets. general, europe is pretty good at negotiating things so i would not rule ou

mohamed el-erian's tweet this morning. i am going to fill in the blanks here. trump and the american election. simon: i think you are precisely right. you think about all these events , whether we are talking about what happened here and what happens in the u.s., it is about the rise of populist politics. much of that has been driven by central bank policies. rise -- en the that the other argument is central banks have had to step in when politicians would not act. simon: politicians are forced to act. the rich get richer. i am not. that is why we have had a rise in populist. that is the real reason behind today's vote. that is why you cannot discount the idea of a trump victory. anna: we have heard populist parties around europe jumping on this tomorrow. manus: we are squeezed on time. policy response from the bank of england. what is your call? qeon: i think they will do if this continues. anna: you hear helicopters? simon: somewhere. maybe not here. anna: thank you for joining us. we will have special coverage on bloomberg tv and radio. we have updates throu

. >> also mohamed el erian will be joining us. >>> does carlos ghosn see signs of trouble too? we'll ask him about the state of the auto business next and the stock of a jewelry company and diamond swapping. they question the accounts practices. mark light joins us exclusively to defend his company. that's later on the "closing bell." y you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. flood of potential patients. a deluge of digital records. x-rays, mris. all on account...of penelope. but with the help of at&t, and a network that scales up and down on-demand, this hospital can be ready. giving them the agility to be flexible & reliable. because no one knows & like at&t. igoing to clean betteran electthan a manual. was he said sure...but don't get just any one. get one inspired by dentists, with a round brush head. go pro with oral-b. oral-b's rounded brush head cups your teeth to break up plaque and rotates to sweep it away. and oral-b delivers a clinically proven superior clean versus sonicare diamondclean. my mouth feels super clean! oral-b. know you're getting a superior c

hadd: in conclusion, we mohamed el-erian in and he said politics are getting in the way of good economicseeing messy politics? are they precluding sound economic judgment? >> to me, it seems the brexit vote is not about economic policy. it's more about immigration. i think there is a british psyche, a deep-seated distrust of europe. i think it is more about the political nationalistic judgment tomorrow. in the end, i think it will be the avoidance. been in the eu for 40 years. the european union and the eurozone have problems not because of sound economic ideas of what to do big -- but because they cannot get anything done politically. david: it sounds like the united states. let's look outside the business world. sixth time this year, north korea has launched mid range ballistic missiles. they have fired two missiles which are capable of hitting u.s. bases in guam or japan. the pentagon says the first missile failed while in flight. japan call the launch is a violation of united nations security council resolutions. when it comes to investor confidence, donald trump beats hillary clinton

mohamed el-erian will be our guest. stick around, we'll be right back.to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ what if 30,000 people download the new app? we're good. okay... what if a million people download the new app? we're good. five million? good. we scale on demand. hybrid infrastructure, boom. ok. what if 30 million people download the app? we're not good. we're total heroes. scale on demand with the number one company in cloud infrastructure. >>> welcome back, everybody, take a look at this implosion video. this is an implosion gone wrong. crews were set to implode the taller of the two towers at the rivera hotel in las vegas but when it was time for the big moment, the first charges blew and the flood lights turned off. it happened in the dark leaving spectators confused. no word on why the lights failed but the implosion was not supposed to be a spectator event anyway, so don't worry about it. >> the taller -- i'm trying to think, the rivera, you say. >> i believe. the rivera hotel in las vegas, not s

joining us is mohammed el erian. we spoke with you last week. at that point you were still concerned about the potential for a brexit vote. you took this pretty seriously. now that the vote has gone that way, what do you think happens? >> i think it's both historic and consequential. you're going to see a whole series of political, financial and economic effects. we are seeing the politics play out with the resignation of the prime minister, the conservative party will have to get its act together. scotland, ireland are weighing various issues. and the rest of europe is wondering what's the next domino. we will see pretty sharp market movements, but there will also be opportunities for those who have cash in the days and weeks ahead. >> what does that mean? is this an opportunity right now? should investors be looking at major moves like this, whether it's the s&p futures down by 5% or the pound down by 8%? is that an opportunity to buy in? >> i would be a little bit cautious right now. we haven't yet seen the leverage accounts having to cover.