alix: mohamed el-erian, do you agree? q2 rate hikes in the cards? et two more this year, and to the extent there is a balance of risks, the market will involve to the notion that we get more than two rather than less than two. david: when you look at the year-over-year hourly earnings increase, two points are percent, at what point does that morningstar start to express in the economy, given where inflation is. it is not real dollars, the when do we start to see in a consumer-driven economy, a real pickup? mohamed: it will be slow, and one important element related to your question is this implement report wants us not to extrapolate too quickly from the much better sentiment data. yes, sentiment is much better, but the hard data is going to respond slowly. i think you're going to see this morning getting to the economy. more important is what you see with corporate cash. that is also very important. you need corporate cash to go into productive activities, and acksjust into by -- buy b and higher dividends. market participants -- wanting you have be

i see pictures on the wall angelo dundee, mohamed el—erian, you we re angelo dundee, mohamed el—erian just cassius clay then, he was very young and confident in himself. i'd vacuum you mention these people like it is nothing to you but these are history makers. they supported me. i was accepted them. in 1960 barbara retired, having won 35, drawn one and lost just retired, having won 35, drawn one and lostjust one but she did not say goodbye to boxing. she set up the women's international boxing federation and gave women titles to fight for. and in 2012 she came to london to watch women box for 0lympic medals for the first time in history. among them two times gold medallist nicola adams. it is because of woman like that made it possible for me to box today. it was tough for me, women's boxing was not acce pt tough for me, women's boxing was not accept that i can't imagine her high —— how hard it must have been for her to —— how hard it must have been for herto keep —— how hard it must have been for her to keep pushing and training and try to be taken seriously. i have to say a big tha

let's bring in mohamed el-erian. allianz chief economic adviser.iday, mohamed, would you think would cause the futures to increase? in terms of the probability of a rate increase? there was some positive things beneath the headlines. is that it? >> you're absolutely right, joe. i think the 98,000 miss, overstated the weakness of the jobs report. the internals were favorable. and i don't think that in any way diverts the fed from hiking twice this year with the balance of risk to more rather than less. >> yeah. so, three this year, mohamed? four? >> i think in total you get three. we may get one more than that. the important thing is the following. we are now in the era of normalizing monetary policy. both rates and balance sheet. the fed increasingly is going to lead the market rather than follow the market. and i think that's really important. because it's going to put pressure on other central banks to figure out what they want to do in this changed paradigm. >> so, mohamed, let me just break in for a second. you seeing this sorkin, or not? >> i'

mohamed el-erian. turkey has arrested supporters of a preacher associated with the failed coup attempt. .upporters of fethullah gulen he lives in the united states. thousands of venezuelans taking part in a protest against the government of nicholas maduro. the march on the office of the ombudsman in central caracas. into areas police have fired tear gas to try to disperse the crowd. you are watching bbc "world news america." still to come, sure the president wants a wall, but what kind will it be? we look at some possibilities. she was banned from tennis 15 months ago for doping. hera sharapova is back for first match after being suspended last year. she will take on an italian at the open. it has divided opinion on her fellow players and has some of the biggest tournaments on the calendar. back in, butowed not to the fanfare that has greeted her for much of her career. maria sharapova makes an anticipated return to competitive tennis after a 15 month suspension. until yesterday she was banned, and wi

mohamed el-erian warned about calling this a week jobs report.d to that co-cio capricorn fund managers. comesot of noise that around when you have a big change in the u.s. economy. urge, nowal s everyone is waiting to see if the de-escalation pushes through . playingo you see that out in markets? our previous guest was saying he thought the trump trade was fading or dying out altogether. >> that is fair. assessment elements of the trump are winding down. high tax companies are starting to fade, etc.. underlying that is there is a stimulus to the overall markets, because people are not certain where bond yields are going. if you are bearish on bonds, positive on equities overall, you do not want to be short on u.s. duration. to cancel that, you have to be long equities. action on friday came off of comments on the balance sheet and that the fed may not take as long of a pause in tightening as markets would have hoped. what impact do you see that playing out? and another area where we have debate and differences of opinion. >> so many things. we ha

and then i will be back with tom keene with a "surveillance" special where we will speak to mohamed el-erian. david: thank you so much. magdalenaacqua with andersson. stay tuned this sunday -- special coverage of the first round of the french presidential election. join francine lacqua, myself, from campaign events and rallies across france for that coverage. we will have the latest market reaction from the u.s., europe, and asia. mike pence on the final leg of his asia pacific tour. hard feelingsover between the prime minister and president trump? this is bloomberg. ♪ david: this is bloomberg markets first hundred's days. breaking news from the treasury department. exxon mobil had been hoping for an exemption from seychelles in the -- sanctions in the black sea, and the treasury department saying in consultation with president donald trump the treasury department will not issue waivers to u.s. companies, including exxon, authorizing drilling currently prohibited by current russian sanctions. this is a sanction floated when president obama was in the white house, but the treasury department

however, bloomberg view columnist mohamed el-erian said one should be careful calling this a week jobshiswould not extrapolate to say it is a week jobs report. if you look at the three-month average, we're probably going to settle around 150,000 in event shall he. wage growth is expected. the co-ceo at capricorn fund managers joins us to discuss further. i have to ask for your take on the perils number. turning into a were socked test -- a rorschach test. >> it came in a bit weaker. there is a lot of noise that comes around when you have a big change in the u.s. economy. waiting to see will his deregulation and fiscal stimulus actually push through. until then, take a little bit of a step back. tracy: had easy that playing out in markets? said heious guest thought trump trade was fading if not dying out altogether. >> i think that is fair. certain element of trump trade are starting to wind down. the high tax companies start to fade. however, underlying that all is the fact that there is a big stimulus impetus to the overall market. if you are still area should on bonds, it is positive

this friday, an all-star lineup of gary cohn, mohamed el-erian, and alan krueger.ine revs ] [ screams ] [ shouting ] brace yourself! this is crazy! [ tires screeching ] whoo! boom baby! rated pg-13. [ screams ] [ [ screams ] ] [ shouting ] brace yourself! this is crazy! [ tires screeching ] whoo! boom baby! rated pg-13. [ screams ] jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg daybreak." we are 23 seconds away from the cache open in new york. futures are positive. the s&p six points on 500. an upside surprise on the adp report. we have gotten used to that, haven't we? the enthusiasm there are ahead of the board. -- single basis points. the dollar rising firmer by .1%. that is the situation. 10 seconds into the open. let's get you to abigail doolittle. abigail: we are looking at a bullish open for the major averages. the dow, s&p 500 and the nasdaq trading higher on the open after choppy trading yesterday that ended in small gains after the blowout adp report you mentioned. laterad of the minutes today. it will be adjusting to see if averages hang on. theenergy c

we've got marty mosby and mohammed el erian. of the hottest new startups which aims to change the way millennials consume the media. mike.com got us a new round of funding last week. we'll talk to the ceo on what he hopes to do. >> melissa, we look to 12 minutes some "squawk box." >>> still to come, ed keon is in the house, managing director at qma is joining us. first before the break, take a look at where asian equities closed. green in japan, up 70.7%. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's get you up to speed on the market action. we'll look at the bond curve here as you can see, yields around 2.37 on the ten-year note. that came off we did dip below 2.3% on friday. despite that dip in markets ending the day flat. quite resilient in the face of that. oil prices have supported the markets in production. gained about 3% adding another 8%, energy the best-performing sector last week. 52.6. just a look at the futures to show you where it's shaping up in light of all of this. the dow on flat -- well, now about 8 points o

stayogramming note -- tuned, mohamed el-erian, bill gross.omberg. ♪ >> it is 1:00 in washington, 6:00 in london, and 1:00 in hong kong. i'm david gura. we are focusing on the u.s. china relationship as president trump and president xi meet for the first time ever. to floridap en route right now or he will meet his chinese counterpart for the first time. korea arenorth expected to be high on the agenda, the first real test of president trump promises to win negotiations with the world's second-largest economy. i will discuss their economic relationship with former u.s. secretary of the treasury jack lew. there will be plenty for president trump and president xi to discuss in the first face-to-face meeting but there is a growing divide over what to do with climate change. i will also speak to former u.s. energy secretary ernest moneys later in the hour.

joining us right now is mohamed el-erian. allianz chief economic adviser.hat we've been talking about is the treasury secretary steven mnuchin's interview with the f.t. saying tax reform he still thinks will happen this year but not in the august time frame. is that a huge surprise to anybody watching over the last month or two? >> it's not a huge surprise. i think that by deciding to sequence health care before tax reform the administration has lost a few months. and then you heard gary cohen, a week ago, say getting it right is much more important than doing it quickly. so i don't think the comments that we're not going to get it by summer was a big surprise at all. >> what -- what has been a surprise to you of the things that you've been watching? is it what's happening with the fed? when do you expect to see rates picking up? >> i think the hardest thing for me right now is to reconcile what's happening in the bond market, with what's happening in stocks. unless you believe the fed is going to ease, which i do not, then there is inconsistency between tr

mohamed el-erian. >> one of the big movers today, u.p.s.ng, beating estimates on revenue and earnings per share. it's trading a little lower. joining us first to discuss it is richard paris, and a distinguished member of the cfo council. nice to see you again. >> good morning. good to be here. >> so it looks like the take away from the quarter, higher volumes and higher sales but also higher costs. give us a little color as to what you saw. >> sure. across the enterprise, we're pretty happy with where we're at right now. in the international business we saw exports grow at the highest we have seen since the recession at over 14%. and then on the supply chain and freight business we saw profits up 22% and in the u.s. business, revenues were up about 5%. what we did see through the quarter we saw a pause in the consumer spending in the month of february. we saw it come back in march and seeing it in february as well and that did have an impact on the quarter. as well as some one-time costs that we called out. fuel prices were about 50% higher

what a pleasure for us to talk to mohamed el-erian. signal the end of the anti-establishment phenomenon. all of the uncertainty in france must have been lifted. "some form of cohabitation, a government made up of a president of one party and a prime minister from another will have to emerge, which is far from a straightforward proposition." here with the idea of a coalition government in france? is france ready for that? ludovic: i think it is. will do things differently. and i think it will be the first time that when a president is that is he has a party not his maturity but the programs are converging when it --es to econ, the tween what econ, between but francois fillon had. i'm not really worried. -- when they go low, we go high. the french are very proud of this. to show there is a way out. we chose trudeau over trump. an easy win there for macron? is it the labor? is it labor costs which make it expensive for outside companies to come here? or is it pure tax reform? does it need to happen quickly so people don't pay too much on

former pimco ceo and bloomberg columnist mohamed el-erian. this is bloomberg on friday.hat will be friday. let's check in with mark crumpton. co-owner toddcubs ricketts has withdrawn his nomination to be president trump's deputy commerce secretary. according to a person familiar with the matter. they had a tough time unwinding his ownership of the baseball team to meet ethics rules. he was among the first group of nominees. 30, to the senate on inauguration day. jason chaffetz is returning to the private sector. in a facebook posted a comedy house oversight committee chairman said he will not run for reelection or for any office in 2018. he was elected to congress in 2008. he said his decision was not based on health or political concern, adding that he was confident he would of been reelected. two russian bombers have gone within 100 miles of the alaskan coast. it is the first time since president trump that russian warplanes have come so close to the u.s.. planes tobled fighter that flewplanes alongside for several minutes. returned to their base. it's been a most two

commissioner for economic and fiscal affairs, and former pimco ceo and columnist for bloomberg, mohamed el-erianis is bloomberg. ♪ oliver: this is "bloomberg markets," i'm oliver renick. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. biggesteluded the business stories in the news right now. united won't fire anyone after last week's physical removal of a passenger from overcrowded flights. a --eo says the system was the problem with a system failure. he will meet with officials in china about their concerns later. united says it is too soon to tell us about publicity were part -- will hurt bookings. apple plans its was extensive lineup yet. three iphones for launch as soon as this fall. the device included upgraded versions of current models, plus a new top-of-the-line handset featuring stainless steel and more mass cameras. -- more advanced cameras. that is your bloomberg business flash update. , theet: still ahead commodities close, oil on a wild ride and the embattled u.s. shale output. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ attention homeowners age sixty-two and older. one reverse mortgage has a great way for you to

coming up, mohamed el-erian. that is at 2:00 eastern. janet yellen should be terrified by u.s. rates areow interest at a level not seen since 2000, right before the nasdaq plunged 75% in a little more than 2%. elon musk is only a few milestones away from collecting a $1.4 billion windfall from his tesla electric carmaker. a proxy statement said he has achieved all but six of them. he has until 2022 to reach the goals. billionaire wants to sell 49% of the brooklyn nets. been able to find a buyer yet. they had the worst record in the national basketball us so's the nation this season. in looking to unload his russian assets. this is bloomberg. alix: a big week coming up for central banks. the boj kicking off their policy meeting on thursday. an exclusive interview with francine lacqua. he did issue a warning for fx. timing could be -- and if exchange rates depreciate, the could be earlier than thought. trend is toward 2% in the gradual amount, reflecting going through --. alix: also with us, jeff rosenberg. has his way, it will keep appreciating. where are we in the story now? st