mohamed el-erian is with us. not expecting you so thank you very much for giving us your time. walk me through what you're expecting in about 50 minutes time. let me tell you what i'm hoping for. i'm hoping for solid employment growth. second, wage growth echoes to 3% the rate, a tick up in which is at a decade low rate. if we don't get that, it's headaches not just for the fed but also for main street and wall street. we need to see this trifecta and when he to see it starting to happen now. the data looking at and wage growth specifically, what kind of wage numbers do we need over the next couple of months to put a rate hike back on the table at the fed? 3% will be the key because that will tell the fed that the phillips curve is alive, that wage growth and inflation respond to job creation and it will tell the fed that while there are structural changes going on, there is still a cyclical component to policy. we need to see about 3%. david: we understand what you hope for and what the fed hopes for. do you see

jonathan: mohamed el-erian.to rely on the banks of the time. you will be sticking with this. this is the story so far. futures are positive. euro-dollar pretty much goes nowhere. price action in the fx market and the treasury market as well with yields roundabout 2.2. i am pleased we can go to jackson hole, wyoming where michael mckee is standing by with a special guest. good morning to you, mike. morning.good we like to welcome all of our viewers to bloomberg television and listeners to bloomberg radio as we speak with robert kaplan, the fed of the federal reserve tank of dallas. you have given a number of speeches in recent days and interviews in which you have said you want to because this about monetary policy. let me put it bluntly. what are you afraid of? what are you being cautious about? the word i have used is patient. here is why i am patient. i have been an advocate that the fed raise runs -- raise rates twice this year. miley judgment is we are making progress on full of women, gdp should grow in exc

we get the move from just -- mohamed el-erian.aidi: we are two hours away from the open of asia's first major market. betty: it is after 6:00 in new york. we will be looking at how all of the action on wall street will play into the asia-pacific trading day. not as much action over the weekend as we saw last week on friday. steve bannon finally being ousted. palace intrigue is what they are calling it. we will go from focusing on what is going on in washington to what is going on in jackson hole where the fed speakers are lining up, in particular janet yellen. that is where the markets' focus will be. given all that intrigue, we did close -- close lower again. haidi: never far from the political misadventures in washington at this point. that is a point of focus for investors. it is a macro light week this week, but we will have fed speak and central-bank speak going into that key event in wyoming. take a look at how we are setting up in asia. fallingthe dollar index with all 10 currencies except the swiss franc. kiwia stocks down

with mohamed el-erian has to say on bloomberg next. >> this is bloomberg markets. when the world central bankers gathering the shadow of -- next week there will be a number of learning questions. the winding down of the fed balance sheet and the unwind of qe in europe. mohamed el-erian, chief economic eggs -- chief economic advisor ways in. >> from a market perspective i will be paying more attention to mario draghi. simply because the fed is well embarked against our value concept of beautiful normalization. i don't think the fed is going to want to shake that process. expect janet yellen to be saying anything. she will focus on financial stability. very different situation for mario draghi. they are going to explain how they're going to do that. the economy is more fragile than the u.s.. i think they're going to have much more information content. >> take those comments and put them together with the counselor we got this week. how much did they take away from what draghi might be saying. they are particularly focused on the strength of the euro. away?hat take th

. >> and after the bell our friend mohamed el-erian talks about whether geopolitical tensions and north korea could still be a risk factor. always look forward to talking to mohammed. let's take a look at the ugly day for retail courtney reagan has all the numbers -- the numbers, the big numbers, the high altitude numbers were good, but the stocks are just getting slammed today, courtney. >> reporter: and i think that's the point, bill. if you look at the stock movement, you may not realized there was actually good in today's retail report, though it wasn't really the case for dick's sporting goods. shares here hitting seven-year lows after missing across the board after particularly the comp sales and guidance sharply off what analysts are looking for. the sporting goods and retail apparel says it's going to increase discounting for the rest of the year to try to hold on to market share weakness and hunting, licensed goods and athletic apparel more than offset the strength that it saw in e-commerce, footwear and golf shares there down almost 22% consumers may not be buying hunting equi

later on in the program, we will be joined by mohamed el-erian. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ joanathan: a rumor began circulating on twitter that gary cohn was resigning. this was reported to be false, but caused a swing and financial markets. then it returned. -- joined by kristina hooper. as the faceing seen of tax reform? a very capables individual. he is worked behind the scenes to bring in some ceos. he was one of the big six is than working behind the scenes on tax plans. jonathan: i do wonder how financial markets would react if he was leaving the illustration. christine: it would the problematic. stocks right now are priced for tax reform. gary, thatrture like would mean it's in serious jeopardy area -- jeopardy. david: the white house had to say this. it, that raises the question if he is going to be there for very long. christina: they had to do that area hopefully they are working behind the scenes and coming up with an incentive to keep him to get tax warm done. he could be nominated as fed chair. david: if he is that impor

tracy: that was mohamed el-erian on the economy.day's jobs report gave some indication of healthy outlook for the u.s.. u.s. employers added jobs in the line -- in july. it is matching a 16 year low. .et's go back to hans as i mentioned, we have had some lackluster u.s. economic data earlier in the week, but the jobs report looked solid. how are you reading all of the numbers we've heard -- we've seen over the past week? hans: the economy is in a soft patch. we are seeing indicators. however, the jobs report, at least the headline number, was positive. , the laboruraging participation rate has gone up and unemployment rate is down to 4.3%. that is encouraging. but if you look at further details in the report, our conclusion is it will not move the digital -- move the needle for the fed because you basically have a huge draw and part-time jobs and decline in full-time jobs and you also have the medium duration of unemployment that has gone up. job security is not there. the bottom line is waiting for will probably not materialize. th

we're going to have mohamed el-erian with us today. we have so much turmoil.rm. who better than a wise person to give us respect. that is an important guest today. francine: thank you so much. that is david westin. u.k. tries to regain momentum in the brexit talks. let's get to our london euro chief. what did we learn this week? we will have to wait and see how it's received. wantedearned what they to look like. ofy want free movement people and goods across the border. we learned about the transitional arrangement. week, wehead to next will cover more position papers. some will be secrets about what the ritz of learned about the eu and how that information remains secure once they leave. the week after than we had the neck round of. will negotiations start of the 29th western mark -- 29th? there is a holiday in the u.k. on the 28th. it looks like that will be respected. -- big question is if it progress will be made. they can decide to move on to the next phase. a report saying no deal with the eu would he a disaster area that theyhave said is want a transiti

allianz chief economic advisor mohamed el-erian reckons it is.he says a portion of the traditional buyer interest has been diverted to the growing markets for cryptocurrencies. the returns, he argues, there have been significantly greater -- it is a pretty bold call. have they significantly changed? stephen: the korean story of the weekend, people have realized there's nothing to be done. i think steve bannon made this comment that you've got a city of 10 million people 30 kilometers from the north korean border. any kind of military action against north korea is a nonstarter because 10 million people will be killed. francine: but for your portfolio, something can be done. stephen: gold, i'm pretty neutral. maybe it has a very small part in your portfolio, but doesn't yield anything. when you do get these flareups, it seems to subside fairly quickly. cryptocurrencies, this is a scam. this is bad news. this is really worrying me. this is another sign of bubbles. i really would caution investors. we don't know what it is. nobody understands it. sta

mohamed el-erian is on vacation this week. miss him, but that is your lineup on friday, the payrolls report right around the corner. for coverage on bloomberg tv. for our viewers worldwide, you are watching bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan:jonathan: from new york city, for our viewers worldwide, you are watching "bloomberg daybreak." all-time highs potentially on the dell, futures positive 30 points. the big pop on asphalt in the premarket helping things out on the dow and the nasdaq. the story in the bond market as follows, stable, yields are higher about two basis points at 2.27. a lot of people will discuss euro strength and they will talk about cable at 1.3232 but to me the story is the dollar that cannot catch a bid. the cable rate stronger even though we had a really soft construction pmi in the u.k., we were looking for 54 and we got 51.9. a dollar that is not going anywhere anytime soon, the cable rate up to tens, euro-dollar up why a quarter. you an update on the headlines outside the business world, here is emma chandra. emma

el-erian from mohamed writing for "bloomberg view." majorget back to steven from hsbc.external shock could come from something happening in the markets. steven: i think that is very eloquently put, very elegantly. we would break it down into three categories. there are macroeconomic shocks, data surprises. it could be inflation, central banks and their guidance, their policies. then there are more micro and market-based and these are things that we really don't know . we can't see them, so we don't know. thinking about the amount of leverage in the system, some of the derivative products that are out there, others have spoken about etf's. i don't know that is the source of volatility. we are talking about a possible source of volatility coming from the products in the market, rather than the more macro economic growth. everyone knows volatility is low. everyone know there is lots of liquidity and there are he bunch septembercoming up in and october. it is unlikely that those events are going to do anything because they have been so well-telegraphed. if you can't see it

el-erian a pleasure thanks for joining us. >> thank you let me ask you about what we saw in washington this week mohamed how it is impacting,t markets. because all of those business leaders stepping down, you know many of them i know many of them, they wanted a stand and said that what was going on in washington was too much of a distraction at this point, what kind of of impact is that going to have? >> look it is not good news for two reasons, one is that you don't get the input of the business community at a time when the administration and congress is looking at tax reform, infrastructure. and the second reason it is not good news it drowns out any discussion infrastructure and tax reform, remember you've got to design these pro-growth mirs ufth to get buy-in implementation and for that you need focus, and the focus right now is elsewhere. maria: yeah. do you think they can get back on track mohamed do you think it is priced into this market that we will get tax reform? or are people giving up on this at this point? >> i think people have pushed back the expectations for tax reform. they are come conferred a global econ