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mohamed el-erian. tom, can we talk about the mets a little more? was an important interview. we have to find time to resurface what we heard from dr. mohamed el-erian. jonathan: coming up, dr. jennifer nuzzo. this is "bloomberg." ♪ >> today we are pleased to learn the fda has approved emergency use authorization to be used in children 12 to 15 years of age. this is a watershed moment in our ability to fight the cover 19 pandemic. jonathan: clinical research and development. good morning. i am jonathan ferro alongside tom keene. equity futures down 14 on the s&p 500. we could have a fourth straight day of losses. yields unchanged after a brief visit through 170. look out the blood market in germany, gilts climbing for seven straight sessions -- bund record in germany, climbing for seven straight sessions. we're debt on was three percentage points on this thursday. tom: we have to watch this carefully and this goes critically into claims today and tomorrow's retail. right now we recalibrate the pandemic. dr. jennifer nuzzo joins us. i want to cut to t

the fed is calling it transitory, but economist mohamed el-erian isn't so sure.s is right at the moment when we want to talk to you and get your take on this. investors, policymakers are all wondering is this inflation persistent or transitory, and you're on the record is suggesting the fed should have a little more humility in making predictions. what's the probability this inflation could prove more persistent? >> it's high enough for the fed to stop repeating this mantra that it's going to be transitory. look, undoubtedly there are transitory factors. the base effects are one of them, the short-term miss match among supply is another one. but increasing he there's evidence underground of structural shifts in both demand and supply that suggests that we should have an open mind towards the persistence of the inflation their pressures. and that's what companies are telling us. but typically macroeconomists have enormous difficulty adding up the micro data and changing the macro approach. jack: yeah, certainly the data have been all over the place, which probably

tom: with london and the miserable weather, mohamed el-erian is living there.orgeous weekend in new york city. it is time for a tang mimosa. jonathan: someone wrote it is friday, can we get tk on a john deere tractor with a mimosa? i'm not sure who this person is. lisa: i think we should go there. jonathan: i will run. tom: as fast as you can. lisa: british sarcasm at its best. jonathan: looking forward to next week with more of the same. we will talk. equities up 15 points on the s&p. heard on bloomberg radio and seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden says the u.s. will help gaza with humanitarian aid in the wake of that 11 day conflict with israeli forces. the cease-fire brokered by egypt took effect early today. israeli warplanes and artillery pounded gaza while how mass militants fired rockets at israel. at least 232 palestinians were killed and 12 people were killed in israel. negotiations over president biden's $2.2 trillion infrastructure package are nearing a crucial stag

jonathan: mohamed el-erian this morning and "the ft" making some of those arguments.t was the objective for this federal reserve, but not on the balance sheet. we are not having a conversation about hiking interest rates right now. we are talking about tapering. that wasn't part of the reaction function around inflation and this shift of a new framework. we are talking about tapering bond purchases. when people say there's froth, what are the targets of the market -- the pockets of the market that using are burning a little too hot? ben: it is definitely happening in the equity space itself. there's so much anticipation of this moment of fully reopening the economy that i think is over ability, and it has shown itself , earlier this year, that is rates went up, some of that started to moderate. at the same time, i think that idea about tapering is well communicated so far. so i think at the same time, yields are going to react to the economy. that's going to take out some of that froth that we may be seeing in the equity market. tom: what is the magnitude of the real

mohamed el-erian says the federal reserve may be too optimistic that rising inflation is under control finding opportunity in unlikely places. we'll get stock picks from jpmorgan's claire hart. but we begin as always with

. >>> when we calm back, allianz adviser mohamed el-erian is going to give us and weigh in on a volatile week big deal. this is an interview you've got to stick around for. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on msnbc. one of the many things you can expect when you're with amex. (vo) nobody dreams in conventional thinking. it didn't get us to the moon. it doesn't ring the bell on wall street. or disrupt the status quo. t-mobile for business uses unconventional thinking to help you realize new possibilities. like our new work from anywhere solutions, so your teams can collaborate almost anywhere. plus customer experience that finds solutions in the moment. ...and first-class benefits, like 5g with every plan. network, support and value without any tradeoffs. that's t-mobile for business. competition beat us again. how? they have a better finance system than we do. i feel like they might have a better finance system than we do. workday. how do they make better decisions faster? workday. it's got to be something workday. i think i got something. work... hey, rob, you're on mute. hello!

. >> becky >> thanks, joe >>> when we come back, allianz adviser mohamed el-erian will share his takealk about the achievement of lien musk that is vaulting them higher than it should be. "squawk box" will be right back. cal: our confident forever plan is possible with a cfp® professional. a cfp® professional can help you build a complete financial plan. visit letsmakeaplan.org to find your cfp® professional. ♪♪ >>> welcome back to "squawk box. this morning, take a look at the futures right now. we're looking at the dow about 200 points nasdaq looking to open 47 points higher the s&p 500 looking to open 23 points higher. joe. >>> coming up, mohamed el-erian is going to weigh in on all of the news from berkshire's annual shareholder meeting. we'll talk markets and much more "squawk box" coming back >>> our podcast squawk pod is up for an award we ask you to go to cnbc.com to vote voting is open until may 6th we'd love your support the aflac post-pain show! aflac! what a day of upsets. ha ha. jill is certainly upset with that unexpected bill from her back surgery. aflac! let's see that

mohamed el-erian is saying narrowly no, but more complex potentially.: and to what extent do people hedge bitcoin volatility with gold? we know a lot more institutions are involved in the bitcoin trade. john morgan, we talked about his final call, that this only begins to bleed if bitcoin goes down to $20,000 per there is an undoubted movement last week between the explosion in bitcoin or -- and equities. the china story this morning is the alpha, but i am surprised the dollar has not moved more. when you look at what bank of america are saying, it is about trying to judge where we are in the stage. john norman says we are in the early stage of the market. on the bullish side, bank of america saying we are getting ready, the bulls are waiting for the final melt up, the final countdown -- i can't remember who wrote that song. the bears are waiting for a minsky moment. the longer we go on with this effusive news, the bigger pain, back to the 1970's. i don't want to go back to 1970's. and a complicit fed. there is a lot to choose from. the 1970's were not

jonathan: just part of the conversation with mohamed el-erian.bloomberg terminal, and hopefully very shortly, you will find it on bluebird.com as well -- on bloomberg.com as well. from new york city alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. this morning, good morning. -- from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. they nasdaq 100 now just about in positive territory on the s&p. in the fx market, euro stronger get euro-dollar, $1.2082. yields basically unchanged, 1.68% on tens after a sneak peek above 1.70% today. tom: jon and i both watching that as well. the currency market not giving me much love today. there's not much going on there. jonathan: swissie come again bid stronger -- swissie, yen bid stronger this morning. a defensive posture earlier today starting to unwind as we make some progress this morning. tom: right now on the equity markets, jonathan krinsky joins us of baycrest partners. i love the distinction of the absolute versus the relative analysis. for our radio and television audiences, d

mohamed el-erian, too. that's the lineup in the 9:00 hour. stay tuned. are you going to watch that from the radio booth? tom: no, we are doing a conference call of harry kane. jonathan: whilst you are meant to be on radio? [laughter] nice. co. you down to the opening bell, -- counting you down to the opening bell, two hours away. in the fx market, euro-dollar, $1.2270. crude doing ok. tom: entry point, bit dog? i have the bloomberg terminal. jonathan: on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. palestinians poured into the streets of the gaza strip to celebrate a cease-fire with israel. the hamas militant group and israeli forces are now observing a truce that ended 11 days of conflict. at least 232 people were killed by israeli airstrikes and artillery fire on gaza. dozens died knowing hamas rocket attacks on israel. the u.s. is now calling for a global minimum corporate tax of at least 15%, less than the 21% rate it has proposed for the overseas earnings of u.s. businesses. some nations called that rate exc

mohamed el-erian came out they bloomberg opinion column yesterday and said worries are growing abouthe risk of a policy mistake, risk regardless of what we have seen in terms of mixed data so far. one of the last things the economy and markets need is a late fed forced to slam on its brakes. this is a threat, and it is when the fed is aware of. tom: we are doing it was a boom economy we have never seen before. we will talk about that with an esteemed guest in a moment. in the data, i am going to go to the vix and work off that. we had 19 and a big old market. we pulled back to -- egg bowl market. -- big bull market. we pull back to a 27. jonathan: the nominal yield, 1.664 2%. euro-dollar, $1.2206, coming in about 0.25%. if the team in the control room could grab the chart of the u.s. city surprise index, joe weisenthal brought this up recently. it has been rolling over. you can have a look at the u.s. bloomberg surprise index and shows the same thing. relative to expectations, data and america over the last several weeks has not delivered. it is starting to look like a very different

the one i would really want to talk to right now is mohamed el-erian because he confronted this yearsthan: let's go through the statement from yale. "i write with profound sadness to share that david swenson died yesterday after a long and courageous battle with cancer. david served our university with distinction. he was an exceptional colleague, dear friend, and beloved mentor to many in our community." tom: david wilson, from where you sit, is the endowment model blown up with all of the hedge fund alternatives? forget about archegos and all that. it used to be simple. you need to make 2% over the bogey. that was it. vanguard blue that up, and swenson said we can still add value. did he? david: he surely did. why is it that there are so many endowment managers that in essence owe their strategy to swenson's approach? it is clear he had something that other people sought to emulate. another piece of the puzzle perhaps is that as an individual investor, it is easier now to go the route that swenson did, if only because there are so many alternative investments that are being packaged

tom: mohamed el-erian of queens college cambridge.on global wall street to check this out. we will get it out on bloomberg digital. jon and i will fly get on social media in a moment. really good discussion, particularly on the ex post nature of the federal reserve system. mitchell roschelle joins us. we are thrilled he can stop by to tell you why i cannot afford any real estate anywhere. we looked at wyoming yesterday because of liz cheney. i cannot afford one square foot in wyoming, it has boomed so much. i want to go to the behavior of the moment and what you witnessed in real estate. let's go suburban. the strangest thing about opening up schools. what will that do to our real estate dynamic? mitchell: right now the uncertainty, and in urban areas roughly 40% of urban areas still have not laid claim to whether or not the schools will be open and in what form, that has parents in cities panicked about the fall school year and they're racing to the suburbs, whether they be in california or suburban new york and trying to gobble up a

mohamed el-erian from cambridge. rick rieder from blackrock as well and michael collins. really something. stay with us. global wall street reacts to this historic jobs report on bloomberg radio and on bloomberg television. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break on you? think again! even a jeep can't burst it. give the aerotrainer a shot. pain and stress is the only thing you have to lose. get it and get it now

we'll get to what i want to talk to the economic adviser, mohamed el erian tech selloff, not because recent turn around seen in commodities and maybe in inflation and cpi has that gotten people thinking the fed may have to do something in terms of tape perfecting sooner than we thought before? is that what this is all about, the gravy train ending sooner than we thought or what is it? >> if they thought that the fed was going to change its policy course, good morning, joe, you would see the 10-year move no, this is something else, joe. this is the market's worried that the fed will be late. >> yes >> that's why you get this -- the market itself starting to question the liquidity paradigm because if the fed turns out to be late, then the fed may have to slam on the brakes. so what you're seeing is nervousness, not that the fed will move. otherwise the 10-year will be much higher in yield but nervousness that the fed will be stubbornly holding on to its transitory mantra about inflation while other central banks are changing course, while people are increasingly saying, hey, look at th

. >> we heard from mohamed el-erian talking about inflation concerns, he has -- he says u.s. central bankers remain fixated on inflation being transitory. they are holding to this despite evidence that supports a more open mindset. this talking about the ecb as well. the selloff seems to be really brought at the moment. are we going to see more volatility in the next few months and is that a buying opportunity? joyce: we think that these tips are buying opportunities, we are comfortable with the target for the s&p 500. we think you also have some infrastructure spending sometime in september. i don't think it is the time to bet on withdrawal. but everyone is going to remain focused on inflation. we see inflation going up to 3% this year compared to 1% last year and you are going to see and overshoot and in the next three to five months, as we see some travel related demand picking up, i think these supply constraints are going to stay with us. those fears are not going to go away. longer-term, with the market is asking, are we in for a shorter business cycle then what we are

. >> mohamed el-erian will be with us to talk about the inflation report plus his thoughts on how long the tech selloff could last after the trading day we will get reports from companies who have seen numerous declines from their peaks. >>> mike santoli is watching the market action. joining us, shara from -- mike, start us off with the market moves. >> an extra helping of pressure coming in reaction to the cpi number although really it is going in the same direction largely we have been experiencing the last couple of weeks. the overall s&p 500 has really faltered a bit in this trend we are now looking at like a 4% pullback from the all-time highs. what people are looking a of the is these levels kind of just below $4,000, which would maybe be where a lot of different things come together it was sort of where the market broke out from a lot of these thing would tell you if we will be in a routine pullback or more of a downside i have to say it is nothing panicky, it is kind of orderly repricing. that may or may not be a good thing in terms of finding a new low. the huge surge in used

. >>> plus, mohamed el-erian joins adg ektalk markets for the trinwe ahead stay tuned we're watching virtual receptionist. when you're busy, she answers the phone. thank you for calling the anderson group hannah speaking. when you're in a meeting, ashley can take a message. she's not available, but i'd be happy to take a message. and if you're stuck in court, lisa will let your clients know. thank you, mr. decker will call you back as soon as he's available. when you switch to posh, you could save up to 40% off your current service provider's rates. you can't be in two places at once, let posh answer. posh virtual receptionists. jerry is here! j! mate, how are ya!? it's so good to see you. good to see all of you, yeah! why is jerry so... popular? it's been like this ever since we started using workday. what do you mean? it makes it easier to develop great relationships with our suppliers. now everyone, everywhere loves jerry. they sure do. they do. they really do. mmhmm. workday. finance, hr, planning and spend management for a changing world. >>> welcome back to "squawk box. i'm dom