coming up, mohamed el-erian says the set path is coming up through the windshield.his is bloomberg. ♪ >> this is bloomberg markets. 8.1% is the estimate from the bloomberg survey for this week's u.s. cpi year-over-year number that would be down from august. still extremely elevated and not sling that would stop the fed on hiking. earlier today, mohamed el-erian said "the economy is beginning to go through the windshield as the central bank likes to fight soaring prices". have a listen. >> that sequence we did not want to see happen is topped with interest rates and all central banks changing. the liquidity regime and that this migrates to credit risk and we worry about inflation. if we are not careful, it may raise liquidity risk. we have been saying be careful of that sequence because when we get to liquidity risk, all three are playing at the same time. we have to appreciate that navigating through this will be incredibly bumpy. >> mohamed el-erian talking about a liquidity story. he also talks about the moment when world leaders were gathering in washington sayin

will be cutting a with mohamed el-erian -- catching up with mohamed el-erian and a just a few. there is the possibility coming up of a joint effort in europe and potentially a lot more cold water to come from germany. from new york city this morning, good morning, equity features are lower. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> given you up-to-date with news from around the world, this is the first word. a group of seven leaders are scheduled to hold a call in which russia's strikes on civilian targets are set to top the agenda. vladimir putin says this was a retaliation for explosions on a multibillion-dollar bridge connecting russia to crimea. ukraine has not claimed responsibility. traded near the highest level in more than three months as russian president vladimir putin threatened more missile strikes across ukraine. this has sparked more fear that harvesting transporter in the country will be cut even further. the agreement over the black sea export quarter comes up next month. they are warning of rising risks of global recession. ims managing director says higher interest rates are ad

jpmorgan's jamie dimon, joins top economists mohammed el-erian and larry summers that the u.s.ill be in an avoidable recession next year. house republicans threaten to call in the fbi director to testify over delays in the hunter biden case. plus we've gotten new wrinkles there. the controversy, paypal, warning users could be penalized for misinformation and twitter flip-flops. it suspends, then restores the florida surgeon general's new health warning about kovacs scenes. new concerning warnses about electric cars, climate activists will not tell you about. i'm elizabeth macdonald. "the evening edit" starts right now. ♪. elizabeth: okay. welcome to the show. let's check your money. stocks again end to the downside, trading volatile on mixed economic data, plus interest rate hike fears. russia pounds ukraine with deadly airstrikes after a major supply bridge to "politico" more than 3/4 say violent crime is a major factor in their midterm vote. we have more on the drive-by shooting outside new york gop gubernatorial candidate lee zeldin home while his daughters were hiding insid

mohamed el erian, we thank you for your time.that is it for us today. we want to thank you for watching. margaret will be back next week. for "face the nation," i'm major garrett. preston, cbs news, new york. ♪ >> announcer: this is the "cbs overnight news." >>> today ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy warned there will be repercussions after russia's deadly missile attack on civilians. overnight at least a dozen people were killed and several apartment buildings destroyed in the southeastern city of zaporizhzhia. zelenskyy's comments come on the same day russian president vladimir putin called a truck bomb attack on the one bridge linking russia to crimea a terrorist act. cbs's charlie d'agata is in ukraine with the latest. >> reporter: civilians in zaporizhzhia once again found themselves the target of russian

tom: that was mohamed el-erian, formerly of pimco. joining us is sharon bell, cohead of emea investments and research, let's get your sense of the tightness of this jobs market. how many more 75 basis point jumbo hikes can we expect from the fed? sharon: i think we get 75 in december, more in december and probably another hike early next year. inflation remains high and sticky, the jobs report has slowed a tiny bit but not to the pace you need to see wage growth come down to make inflation more sustainable. tom: if the job market remains robust and inflation comes down, our lives two things in comply with -- are those things incompatible? sharon: a lot of things have come down, commodity prices have come down, although opec has push them up a little bit. but i believe, and sinful banks believe which is more important, that wage growth coming down is a limit important part of the. -- of the mix. tom: in terms of the trajectory, you see 75 basis points in november, further hikes in december and possibly in the new year as well. do we ge

for more on the fed and markets, let's bring in mohamed el-erian. the biggest headline, they weighed the cost of doing too little or too much and decided it would be too risky than to overdo it. >> that's absolutely right, sara these minutes are as expected to somewhat, don't want to overdo it somewhat more hawkish what the minutes do well is balance the inflation battle with the growth and job challenge. what they don't do well and what the bank of england has reminded us we have to keep an eye on is bring in the financial stability challenge. that's what's missing in these minutes. there's a passing reference to liquidity in the treasury market and that's about it. >> keep in mind and our viewers should keep in mind, these are the minutes from the last fed meeting which was, you remember. it was a very hawkish fed meeting. the market tanked afterwards fell 5% that week. on this idea that they're not going to be slowing down anytime soon and things started to get a little more disjointed after that so how problematic is what you're seeing in the ma

economist mohammed el-erian issuing a bleak warning what is ahead for the economy, placing the blame squarely on the if he. listen to this. >> there is possibility that the federal reserve makes a mistake and that bumpy journey changes the destination. that is cost of federal reserve being late. not only overcoming inflation but it has to restore its credibility. but i fear we risk a very high probability of a damaging recession that was totally avoidable. jackie: forbes mia see know steve forbes joins me now. always great to see you. i want to get your reaction to that, the fed said inflation was transitory for quite sometime. what mohammed el-erian taken it more seriously, incrementally raising rates before in earnest we wouldn't necessarily be in the situation we're in now? >> that's right. both the federal reserve and the administration seemed to be in coordination to do everything they can to hurt the economy, slow it down. unfortunately the federal reserve believes the way you fight inflation is by depressing the economy, slowing down economic activity, making people poorer and

joining me right now, queens college cambridge president, mohamed el-erian.y sharp slowdown, a recession next year. can you assess where we are for the macro story and what you're expecting next year? >> yes, maria. we are in a situation where interest rates are continuing to go up into a slowing domestic economy. why? because inflation has been high and persistent. why? because the federal reserve has been late. so we are in this awful situation that we have seen historically where the fed ends up tipping us into recession. les one interesting aspect here which is financial stability's also being threatened. maria: yes, it's a great point, because that's what happened mt. u.k. and i want to get your take on the bank of england's response to financial instability. but let's stay domestic for a moment because i'm trying to understand how bad things will get and what you're expecting and what you're telling clients and advising in terms of protecting one's self or protecting your company in the face of what could be a severe version. >> well, the most important

joining us now is mohamed el erian to talk about the u.s.the potential impact on investors around the globe. mohamed is an adviser and the president of queens college cambridge and mohamed, we'll talk about what is happening in the u.k., but first let's talk about the markets this morning equities up again and this is happening as yields are coming down around the globe. what is the message? that sounds like it is bigger than just a thought that maybe the u.s. federal reserve is pivoting >> so, we shouldn't take much comfort from the yields coming down around the world because they're come down on growth concerns the european pmi numbers were horrible germany is at 44 and in china, while the gdp numbers beat, there is a lot of question marks around it i think what happened to our market and it is wonderful to have the best week since june. it is wonderful to see the rally continue, is that we've redefined what a pivot is. from meaning lower rates to pausing to slowing and if you redefine that, then you will have iliquidity effect rather than

we will check in with top economist mohamed el erian about the road ahead. >>> a key bridge linking the crimea with russia. we will have a report from the region. >>> it's all just ahead on "face the nation." ♪ >>> good morning. welcome to "face the nation." margaret brennan is off. >>> we have new cbs battleground tracker polls. gretchen whitmer is leading her republican challenger tudor dixon 53% to 47%. in wisconsin the governor's race between democratic incumbent tony evers and businessman tim michels is deadlocked with both candidates at 50%. in the senate race ron johnson is polling at 50% against his democratic rival mandela barnes, who is at 49%. we also learned last week in arizona incumbent democratic senator mark kelly is narrowly ahead of his republican challenger blake masters, 51% to 48%. joining us now to discuss all of this is cbs news elections and surveys director anthony salvanto. good morning. catch us up on tdynamics of thee races. >> good morning. arizona and michigan are two out of the five that will ultimately control the chamber. they're both close for reasons a

mohammed on larry and this -- mohamed el-erian said this would provide more time to design the measuresnd be risky, complicating the bank of the -- the bank of england task. this is interesting this morning, what does this all mean? >> i think the bond vigilantes are back. we have seen that in the last few months in the u.k.. it's a very different environment and this goes to a rudder point. you had this -- broader point. you can afford to be a little complacent. in this environment, investors will pay attention to the fiscal situation and start to think about having a country where you have to worry about funding, what did those funding needs look like? it's a long time since we've had those issues in developed markets and the u.s. still benefits from the fact that you have the reserve currency, this is the safe haven asset for investors so we haven't always had the same level in terms of our fiscal stance. jonathan: do you think we might? >> that's a good question, i've been waiting for that for a long time. it doesn't seem to be what's driving markets these days. you had some pretty

mohamed el erian will join us to talk markets with the dow on track for its best month since 1976 here'sfice "happy days" was the top television show. gas costing 59 cents a gallon. "squawk box" will be right back. can he stand on his own... once he's all on his own? this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪ to adapt in a fast changing world, as you plan, protect and retire. you could hire a professional pit crew. go, go, go. sorry. nope. okay. fresh donuts - hot coffee! they deliver real time data and business forecasts when you need it. i think it was fine how it was. (air tool sound) to help you stay ahead of the curve... or you could use workday. the finance, hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. on the other hand, we had a great fourth quarter. for a accelerate your decision-making world. workday. for a changing world. our internet isn't ideal. my dad made the brillant move to get us t-mobile home internet. -which... we have to share our signal with the entire neighborhood. y

alix: really reassuring words there from mohamed el-erian.'s get back to the question today, contagion? the bridgewater associates co-cio joins us now. she is one of their foremost experts. the question was contagion from the u.k. and elsewhere. >> i think it has been surprising to me when you look at the rise market volatility, how most of it in most assets think it's fundamentally driven, meaning you had a logical fundamental repricing that needed to happen where there are only a certain number of big factors that cause markets to be volatile and important one is inflation and interest rates. when you go through decades where inflation is relevant and interest rates are moving, volatility is low in suddenly you get a realization that that is not the world we live in anymore. things are moving rapidly with the largest rate in 16 years and inflation will be volatile and we are bound to get lots of market action in the u.k. in europe so there is good fundamental reason why you have to have good volatility in markets reflecting that. then you h

. >>> and later, we talktreg r e fourth quarter with mohamed el-erian "squawk box" will be right backhile you may not be a pediatric surgeon volunteering your topiary talents at a children's hospital — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you give back. so you can live your life. that's life well planned. thanks to avalara we can calculate sales tax on almost anything, anywhere, automatically. avalarahhhhh. what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh. filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh. managing exemption certificates? ahhhhhh. business license guidance? ahhhhhh. does it connect with accounting? ahhhhhh. item classification? ahhhhhh. cross-border sales? ahhhhhh. what about? ahhhhhh. ahhhhhh. do you have those budget markups? thank you. mmhm. [bubbles] >>> the capitol, washington, d.c., will be quiet for the next month as lawmakers return to districts to campaign for the midterms the house is in recess and the house is expected to follow suit >>> and disney and dish network striking a deal that ended the blackout week that

haidi: plenty of critics of the fed, mohamed el-erian is one of the most outspoken.e we hearing? annabelle: he was speaking on u.s. television, giving his views on the u.s. jobs numbers and what that means. he says the odds of contraction are very high. he's saying the fed has a dual mandate, not only to bring down inflation but to restore its credibility. as he has said, the fed is slow to act and that teens we have a high chance of the contraction or a session that could have been avoided. in terms of what else he spoke about, the opec-plus decision. he says the critical reaction, because we did see oil having its best week since may. it was understandable or could have been predicted. haidi: the eu is preparing several options to cut the price of gas. leaders are eyeing specific plans when they meet in brussels in two weeks. we have this report from prague. >> european leaders stuck in a tricky balancing act. storage up and demand down, they agreed gas prices remain unacceptably high but could not agree to put a limit on it. when the germans speak, they say they a

. >> mohammed el-erian will join me, casey mcfarland russia's war on ukraine begins tonight 7:00 pm eastern right here on fox business you are watching "mornings with maria" right now live on fox business. ♪ ♪ ♪ because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities. medium latte, half-caff, no foam. quite the personalized order. i know what i like. i've been meaning to ask you, carl. does your firm offer personalized index investing? hmm? so i can remove a stock that doesn't align with my goals. i'm a broker, not a barista. what about managing gains and losses to be more tax efficient? not a wizard either. looks like schwab personalized indexing can. schwaaab! learn more about personalized indexing at schwab today. . maria: welcome back. f

listen to what top economist mohammed el-erian about inflation.we still have and inflation issue. inflation will come down, major. the question does it come down with a slowdown in the economy or a major recession? that is the question that is being debated right now. it is not whether we'll have inflation coming down, we will. but it is cost of that inflation coming down. stuart: stephen moore joins me. all right, stephen, is that what we're going to do? are we going to slow down inflation by going into a major recession. that is what is going to happen, is it? >> stuart, let me start by settling that issue you were just talking about why there are so many workers missing from the labor force. you had a good discussion about that we estimate there would be about three million more americans working today if we just got back to the labor force participation rate that we had before the pandemic. and, there is just no question about it, stuart, that it is all of these government payments that are basically enticing people to stay out of the workforc

charles: peter, let me ask you real quick, yesterday mohammed el-erian put out a very provocative tweetider having independent federal reserve. he cited four major errorses. analysis, forecast, actions, communications. does very a point? >> i think the federal reserve is roundly incompetent now. he is led by a lawyer. would you have me adjudicating constitutional law at the supreme court? likewise european central bank has politician lawyer. this guy is reading off of cliff notes. he relies a lot on the staff economists. the environment, fed doesn't look outside. if you look at the building, it is very insular. we're at a time economic models don't work very well, the kind of structural conditions worked in the past are not present. that is why they missed all the supply side inflation. it is very simple. the place needs windows. they need to look outside. charles: yeah. you know, peter, maybe it needs windows so we can look inside. maybe at some point there should be accountability because they're making decisions that are crushing people! i mean absolutely crushing regular folks who g

jamie dimon, mohammed el-erian, larry summers warn us a recession is possible, congressman van drew an a day wholesale prices came higher better than expected. you talk about taxing americans to bring down the deficit. what do you make of that? >> that will make things worse. we have a majority party and a president who doesn't know the hell what he is doing. i never seen so terrible. it keeps getting worse f it wasn't so serious, wasn't so important this would be actually laughable. he says something. then the press secretary has to bring it back. that goes on over and over again. you know why? he doesn't know what he is talking about. he is not telling the truth and not being square with the american people. we have big problems. he drained down our oil reserves that our past president had put there to make sure that we were safe in time of emergency. now they're all the way down and the good work of president trump has been ruined. elizabeth: okay. >> meanwhile, meanwhile, he just keeps rolling along and doing what he always does. elizabeth: let's shift gears to this. we have a new

i got a yes from three, i'm not sure from mohamed el-erian.inue given the financial stability concerns. tom: the data dependency, the theory that at every central bank has to keep their options open. one of them is keeping people guessing. jonathan: bond vigilantes are back. tom: perspective on that now from edward yardeni, president of yardeni research. decades of study of wall street. we have never seen this. you call it a bearish opera, and on we go with the media. how do you figure out what is going on if everyone is speaking italian? edward: the idea of the opera came to me on friday when fed chair lael brainard gave a speech where she indicated that the fed is sort of in between a rock and a hard place. i think it is actually between voelker 2.0 and bernanke 2.0. it is kind of a bearish opera. the opera is not over until the fed lady sings a more optimistic tune. she was concerned about fed stability -- financial stability. you said on a show that financial stability is one of the mandates. the question is how important is it? i think it

stuart: the chief economic adviser to allianz, mohamed el-erian, is blaming the fed for sparking recessionthis. >> we are currently on what i think of as a bumpy journey to a better destination. there is a possibility that the federal reserve makes another mistake and that that bumpy journey actually changes the destination. that is the cost of the federal reserve being late. not only does it have to overcome inflation, but it has to restore its credible. so, yes, i fear that we risk a very high probability of a damaging recession that was totally avoid is bl. stuart: robert herjavec joins me now, a man you may know from "shark tank" and other successes. he's sitting next to me in new york city. are we going into a nasty recession? >> i don't know if we're going into a nasty recession. it's funny, i saw the video, i couldn't agree with it more. that's exactly what i think. i think that i worry more about the fed and this maniacal drive with interest rates than i do with the actual interest rates. stuart: ma knew -- maniacal, that is a very strong word. >> it is. is there any reason why we

. >> martha: that is obvious mohammed el-erian, the chief economic adviser and president of queen's college. he joins me now. very good to have you with us. we have followed what you have said about this. the imf saying the worst is yet to come for the global economy. are they right? >> they are right. for the imf to say this is a big deal. i can tell you we choose our words very carefully. for them to say the worst is yet to come is very sobering for the rest of us. >> what are they telling us? >> they're telling us that growth is slowing down very rapidly. that many countries risk being tipped in to recession. they tell us that inflation is sticky. it's not coming down as fast as they would like it to be and telling us something else. there's now financial stability risk. the notion the markets may not function the way we want them to function. that is a perfect storm. if we're not careful, it could have significant economic damage to livelihoods. >> that's scary. i think back to 2007, 2008. i used to cover the economy back then. you're saying there's a concern the markets won't function.

the unemployment report, right if it goes above 4%, speculation about a fed pivot, even though mohamed el-erian says the market likes to fixate on whether that is going to happen. >> yeah, i know. i think it's much too early to talk about the fed pivot it's just much too early there's too many stickier parts of inflation right now out there. mentioned wages but also rents are still quite high, and those two pieces along with education and health care, those are going to keep inflation much more elevated even if we come down from the 8.3 cpi number and the 4.9 core pce number that we got last week, it's still going to be high and the fed is still going to probably likely be hawkish. >> let's talk about a couple of stocks that you are going to be watching this week, not necessarily suggesting, but you have your eye on american electric and mccormick, why those two and why are they somehow tells about the economy or the market? >> well, good to see you too, tyler. american electric, i rarely come on this show and talk about utilities. i just don't really have a lot that i invested there. this is a

looking at the landscape the sound bites that we're playing from larry summers and mohammed el-erian, and the guests i've had on the show not setting the brightest landscape ahead of us. >> no, i just heard from jamie dimon as well, whose company is reporting later in the week. i have to tell you, jackie, even though it's a big earnings week in theory, i don't think it's going to give us that much information, because i don't think these companies can predict the most important part of what's ahead with the opec + announcement to cut production and we know that's going to impact inflation. we've seen how that has affected companies in the past but also, it's creating an issue for the fed, because if the fed continues with their push and they want to continue to raise rates, with the elevated prices in oils and with the strong dollar, there could be a global currency crisis, there could be a liquidity crisis and the treasury market, there could be a collapse across risk assets and i don't think any of these companies have any idea what to forecast in terms of the scenarios so i just th

jonathan: a final question before we catch up with you later on in the show, mohamed el-erian started the conversation this week and said we have a global problem that requires a global solution. do you get a sense we are heading that direction in washington? tom: this is the heart of the debate. i was having a beverage or by choice yesterday and this was the key thing, the word accord from john lipsky. john lipsky does not see the element of accord necessary to get that global solution. it is a bremmer meeting, every nation for itself. jonathan: as always, good to catch up, tom keene and washington. we will catch up with tk later. we are not getting a global solution to a global problem anytime soon? lisa: nobody said we would get that until we would see the pain feet into the u.s. and right now it is helping when it comes overall inflationary pressures. jonathan: i'm curious about retail sales later. is that confirm the story of underlying strength? lisa: my concern is and this is somewhat nuanced this you are seeing the upper income individuals and household continuing to spend and

joining us now mohamed el erian. my jet buddy 40 points. look at his twitter account. bet we went to the jets game we didn't know there was going to be a joe sandwich on the right, i mean, how cool is that, you had the jersey on. >> i did you wore the 12 in there, not knowing anything that was going to happen after that and mr. 12 how cool does he look for 79 years old? he's so cool and he's -- isn't he just so laid back. thank you, woody johnson he's a great host. and former ambassador to the uk. so you're queens college, you guys hit it off. >> not only were you incredibly gracious, but also you delivered. >> no, don't stop >> it was an amazing time. >> don't stop, don't stop. i even delivered 40 points for you. i delivered -- all right, let's get to what people love. this we've been talking about and i don't think you agree. some economists fear that the fed humbled by staying too long and staying transitory is now staying too long in terms of raising and we don't know yet -- haven't had an earnings season, we don't know how it's really affecting things they may bre

we will check in with top economist mohamed el erian about the road ahead. >>> a key bridge linking

gather in washington and realize we have a global problem that needs a global solution shery: mohamed el-eriants on central banks' aggressive right hikes. we have a perfect storm of negative forces taking its toll on growth. our global policy and economics editor kathleen hays, the outlook dimming and it could get worse? kathleen: not looking great, absolutely, but they are not trying to sugarcoat it for us. the imf is doing what it has been doing for a while, downgrading both forecasts. and it is everything from the russian war in ukraine to aggressive central bank rate hikes but overall, they are estimating growth next year will be 2.7%, that is down from their last forecast by 2.0%. but in the global economy, if you say what is a recession, the cutoff is not zero, it is 2.5 percent getting weaker. that is how perilously close the economy is to a recession and the imf is saying the worst is yet to come. and there is a 25% chance this could be even worse. about one third of the world is expected to feel that it is in a recession. russia is destabilizing the global economy and that shows no si

saying is in the offing right away >> just to dig into that a little more, alan, this idea that mohamed el erianefining the term pivot and the fact this is less about a fundamental effect and more about a liquidity effect as the fed continues to tighten, do you see it the same way? >> you know, i'm always -- i never quite understand what distinctions like that mean. you know, markets want to pivot on every tidbit of news. if you told the markets that instead of 75 basis points, the fed was going to do 69 basis points they would go nutty and have a pivot. i don't see this as a pivot. i'm going to see this as a well thought out -- we'll see if it works -- strategy. you don't keep going at 75 basis points forever >> do you think the fed should be including more data in its data dependency right now? i know there's focus on readings we'll get at the end of the week, but given some discussion at least from a market perspective on shelter prices and stickier aspects of inflation have already peaked, should the fed be expanding its horizons in terms of how it's making its assessments >> i don't think s

on twitter, deepest apologies to you, mohamed el-erian, but there is a lay one team to root for this what are you doing. annmarie: the mets are going to get to this great point and have this momentum end them, and then blow it. that is the mets. jonathan: the mets down in d.c. more next hour. lisa: thank you for that classy tweet. jonathan: mets are going to mess. what is wrong with that? what happened? they were doing so well. lisa: it is really all about the year. -- the ear. grease, a firmer grip that allows them to make the mets look terrible. six thinning. my boys came home as night and were furious about the ear. did you see the ear? did you not see his ear? i am not an expert. jonathan: ok. just checking. all right. i'm sorry for your loss. lisa: i will rub it in for you when milan starts losing. jonathan: personal and all over the place, always the case. seems like. these two milan milaning. jonathan: futures unchanged, not too bad now. lisa: the mets almost made it. jonathan: what about 20 years ago? lisa: mets were pretty good. jonathan: great in the 1980's come in 1990's,

mohamed el—erian, president of queens�* college, cambridge, part—time chief economic adviser to allianzced. then people start worrying about their own economic future so they start changing their behaviour. and if we're not careful, the average person will notjust worry about whether their kids can be better off — they will worry over whether they can maintain their own standard of living. and then you can trigger a self—reinforcing economic decline that is very difficult to reverse. the institute for fiscal studies said today the chancellor will need to announce more than £60 billion of savings in government spending, to convince investors he can cover the tax cuts he announced two weeks ago. to put £60 billion into some context, the annual defence spending is £40 billion, which puts the chancellor between a financial rock and a political hard place. does he u—turn on the tax cuts he has laid out? no, said the chancellor, it is the right strategy. this government is relentlessly focused, mr speaker, on growing the economy. putin's barbaric war in ukraine continues to put pressure on ga

mohamed el-erian said there is a small chance.e get a situation where participation rates pick up and suddenly you compensate for the cap and you get some sort of natural easing of the pressures in the labor market? i think people are not willing to say that now. jonathan: we were hoping for a positive supply-side 12 months ago. it never kicked back in. the director of research, we will catch up with her shortly and futures are down about half a percentage point. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: keeping you up-to-date with news around the world with the first word, in brazil, the results of the presidential election signal a change in direction for latin's largest economy. lula was elected in a dramatic comeback. three years ago, he was in a jail cell on corruption charges. he narrowly defeated the incumbent who has neither conceded nor commented on the results. his reaction will be watched by investors. there is a show down at the u.s. supreme court over affirmative action. justices will your arguments on admission

mohamed el-erian yesterday said the imf eating this week will be -- meeting this week will be important. tom: this is an extraordinary moment from the world bank and the imf and we will talk to their people. it's about the international monetary fund. it's without question the most important meeting and the most tense meeting since 2008. the data shows up with the yen going up $1.46 in many strategist modeling a weekend to $1.50. the united kingdom a complete and total mess. there was one point yesterday where i looked at three british newspapers and they had three different headlines about what governor bailey will do. jonathan: we are looking forward to hearing from you later. the worry for me, i think the governor of the bank of england is overly concerned about contributing to fiscal dominance, the idea that they are focused on accommodating the physical effort of the government at the expense of tackling inflation and that's problematic. lisa: also the pension funds can remedy their issues. this creates the real rock and a hard place. they don't want to cap yields. they don't want