professor david blanchflower of dartmouth college new hampshire was a lone voice on the monetary policy committee of the bank of england voting for radical action on interest rates to combat the c.d.'s that term his latest book not working consolidates his reputation as one of the world's leading kenson economists today he speaks to alex about his forecast that the economic storm clouds are gathering once again before this even been a full recovery from the last great recession. welcome to the average saddam show so i'm starving me. in your new book not walking you argue that unemployment is as big an issue today as it was 70 years ago or how do you justify that in an age of high employment levels and partly low unemployment levels well turns out that before 2008 the unemployment rate gave you everything you need is a know about the labor market unfortunately that's not true since 2008 and the big deal now is that under employment is what matters people in work can't get enough hours they can't get enough income and that's why they're hurting and the elem pliant rate doesn't really pick that up.

signaled it may start cutting interest rates in the coming months but for now the bank's monetary policy committee decided to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 9 percent it's the 7th time in a row that the figure has been kept on who the bag expects inflation and kenya to remain within its target range despite concerns about a drought could cause crude shortages. for more let's cross over to our correspondent joy biro in nairobi hi joy basically the bank has signaled they're prepared to cut rates soon as the government scales back spending when is that expected to go down and how. well i don't think this is really going to be a change march from the current central bank region of a 9 percent we're likely to see this remain the same or remain unchanged and deal next year because what the central bank is trying to do is to step in lies the banking sector and so it is really not much that we are expecting to happen because as it eased right now it's actually helping to stabilize the banking sector because previously it was actually quite difficult to step away as the banking sector when we had the

south africa's reserve bank monetary policy committee has left the repo rate the rate at which it lends back to other banks at 6.5 percent central bank's governor said the decision was unanimous the federal reserve also left its benchmark interest rate of 6.5 percent citing the recent u.s. fed decision it says central banks in advanced economies have provided monitoring accommodation to ease financial conditions. well south africa's economy may have avoided a technical recession last quarter but it is not out of the woods it remains a major concern the country's debt to g.d.p. ratio has grown steadily over the past decade and it's projected to reach more than 60 percent of a few years and it's right above the average in sub-saharan africa so while the ious well south africa borrowed heavily during the great recession lately it's had to bail out failing state firms like electric utility eskom and recently there's been weak growth leaving big holes in the budget to credit rating agencies have already lowered south african government debt to junk status moody's is set to take another look

the bank's monetary policy committee warned about what a no—deal brexit could do to the economy, falle bank expects demand to ride leading to higher interest rates. usual or unusual for the bank to feel the need to signal a direction of travel with regard to interest rates due to what it termed political reasons? they have said for quite some time now they will be thinking about raising interest rates, albeit at a very gradual pace toa rates, albeit at a very gradual pace to a limited degree in the event the brexit news is positive, we get some sort of deal. very recently they revised their expectations, or at least their assumptions about how bad the brexit situation could get. they said gdp could fall by 5.5%. in relatively short order as well, we are talking about a short quarter, not over many years but a short period. that could require a response of the bank to raise interest rates, they have said. i doubt that would happen. in the event there was a hard brexit we would see inflation rise because of things like lower sterling and possibly higher tariffs and we could wea ken poss

previously considered the most hawkish member of the monetary policy committee.t is the brexit uncertainty will continue to -- toa growth compared suppress growth. richard clarida is re-examining the strategy and would make up for past deviations from its 2% inflation targets. carrie lam is taking blame for the entire unrest rocking the city as the government is looking to reduce tensions ahead of the 20th anniversary. this weekend could see more mass demonstrations and police have gone for a application for a rally. organizers say they will go ahead without police approval. saudi arabia is dropping its strict dress code for foreign women as it attempts to boost towards. used to have to wear a flowing cloak that has been a mandatory for decades. this is going to be clear in the online visa applications. saudi women would like to experience it and see it as part of the culture bird some will decide not. >> global news, 24 hours a day on air, on tictoc, and on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

the bank's monetary policy committee, which was unaminous in its decision, signalled prolonged brexitce has been the familiar sound of breakfast radio for millions of listeners over the past 32 years — but no more. this morning, john humphrys presented radio 4's today programme for the final time. david sillito reports. it's 6am on thursday, 19th september. the final today forjohn humphrys, a chance to reflect back on more than 30 years as the bbc‘s interrogator—in—chief. you are sitting here talking on the radio... his domain, the today programme on radio 4. let me finish the question. let me make this point. his reputation for a terrier—like persistence came from a career injournalism going back decades. i am telling you things have changed. a manifest fact. over the years, he covered events such as the aberfan disaster... these are the little cards which could one day replace the cash in your pocket. he left school aged 15, still in his 20s when he found himself in the thick of it in the indo—pakistan war of 1971. we haven't been here seven, eight minutes, in that time, three strik

we had these very stark warnings from the monetary policy committee from the monetary policy committeeuk economy will be sort of flat but it thinks it will be pick up and be in positive territory from the next three months so again, territory from the next three months so again, over the course of the year, there are saying they think the uk economy will don't grow but as you were saying they keep signalling that whatever deal the uk comes outwith, in the brexit negotiations, could really be the sort of key determinant of the longer term path of the economy. and of course what they were saying as the boss of burger king was saying in the last hour, is uncertainty thatis in the last hour, is uncertainty that is the biggest problem in all of this whatever happens but with regards to interest rates, we had the federal reserve over in the states cutting them earlier in the day. other banks round the world moving in that direction, where do you see the uk central bank heading with regards to rates?” you see the uk central bank heading with regards to rates? i think it will carry on with thi

he previously was considered the most hawkish member of the monetary policy committee his argument isrexit uncertainty will continue to depress growth. that's even if the exit is delayed or canceled her the u.s. federal reserve is looking at a possible shift to its inflation strategy according to richard clarida. pastwould commit for deviations from its 2% inflation target rather than treating them as mrs. and moving on. commerzbank is giving up its goal of high revenue. they say economic slowdowns and lower rates are forcing them to cut costs. they are trying to reverse years of falling revenue and they say that returning to profit will be down to when it can agree on its restructuring. >> with the interest rate environment and all of the positivity we have right now, that seems to be a pretty tricky idea. but the assumption is that we can not only compensate for the negative interest rate environment, but also that we have the ability to have growth by 2023. where carrie lam is taking blame for the entire arrest rocking the city. try to reducey tensions ahead of the people's republi

earlier in the year after careful study over a period of years, the committee implemented monetary policy and a.m. will reserves regime and we have been operating that in a full decade and it works well. the main hallmark is that we adjustments in our administered rates to keep the fed in the target range and designed specifically so we do not expect so going forward we will be market developments and assessing their implications for the appropriate level of reserves and we will be assessing of when it will be appropriate to resume the balance sheet and we will be revisiting this question and certainly at our next meeting. we talked to the large holders to assess what is their assessment and tried to assess and we put it out so the public can react to it. there is real uncertainty and certainly possible that we will need to resume the organize andic sheet. we will be looking at this carefully in the coming dation and taking it up in the next meeting. how much confidence do you have to estimate the real effects of trade uncertainty and if you have confidence in that paper it uld seem to su

you all recall, after careful study over a period of years actually, the committee announced the decision to implement monetary policy and ample reserves regime. and we have been operating in that regime for a full decade, we think it works well to implement our rate decisions, and the main hallmark of the regime is we use adjustments in our administered rates, to keep the fed fund rates in the target range. it is designed specifically so we do not expect to conduct frequent market operations for that purpose. so going forward, we're going to be very closely monitoring market developments and assessing the implications for the appropriate level of reserves. and we're going to be assessing the question of when it will be appropriate to resume your organic growth of the balance sheet. i'm sure we'll be revisiting that question during this intermeeting period and in our next meeting. >> do you think you underestimated the amount of reserves necessary for the banking system? >> so we have always said that it is -- the level is uncertain. and that's something we tried to be very clear about. and as you know we have invest

labour market starting to tighten, but i would say that all eyes have now on the monetary policy commission, the committee—like sales in the uk. risen by 10% in the first year, thatis uk. risen by 10% in the first year, that is the positive, the wider trend of the high street has been inherently negative of the course of the past few years. a mixer of uncertainty or the fact that people are feeling squeezed where their wallets are concerned. also the fact that rates and cost for a lot of businesses have dramatically increased which is why we have seen the acronym company voluntary agreement. a measure of different reasons for this, they have indicated that they are lying sales are rising year on year by 25—30% which is huge plus. almost a reverse of the course of the past few years. their shops seemingly seem to still be going great as people are wanting to shop in them. no indication of what it achieved a uk footprint despite all of the uncertainty at the moment which are clearly a positive. they are also selling goods that people want to buy. that is the secret to good retail. thank you. shall we have a

monetary policy. he spoke of that when he spoke before the parliamentary committee. forecast actually assumes a rate cut before the end of the year. when i read that last week, i thought that sounds a little more optimistic than you would normally expect for a central bank who you think is about to cut rates. we need to remember we have to assume another rate cut. it feels like it is a question of when rather than if. we thought october, just on the view the minutes in the september meeting were quite dovish. and when we look at what has played out globally, we have had weaker pmi's. a number of central banks will be in action in the fourth quarter of 2019. we know the rba things that is relative input into the monetary policy decisions. it tells us they will be cutting today. paul: there is a popular oxymoron going around when we talk about central banks and that is the hawkish cuts. we have seen some of the old concerns reserving in australia. the housing market has been rekindled. is that a risk the rba needs to be conscious of? sally: it is probably something on

committee within the european parliament has backed former i.m.f. chief christine lagarde to head the european central bank while addressing lawmakers she said she wants to keep monetary policy loose largely sticking to the post financial crisis playbook employed in the eurozone but will it really be more of the same. a 1st impression of what the e.c.b. is monetary policy could look like and christine lagarde who is set to take the helm in november the former i.m.f. chief and french finance minister doesn't plan to rock the bolt. i therefore agree with the view of the governing council that a highly accommodative policy is warranted for a prolonged period of time in order to bring inflation back to the famous below but close to 2 percent that could potentially mean negative interest rates something banks aren't happy about law interest rates in europe have already made european banks less competitive than their u.s. peers and that's a concern lagarde also raised at a confirmation hearing in brussels they are also some important questions on the arisan that monetary policy will need to address. first though the impact of unconventional policies continue to be net positive we

monetary principle should be taken into consideration. and trade policy is something that is weighinging on the outlook. i pointed out in recent remarks that the thing committee can't address really is what businesses would like, which is a settled road map for international trade. we can't do that. we don't have that tool. but we have a powerful tool that can counteract weakness. and we think our policy tools support economic activity through fairly well understood hannels by homes and other interest-sensitive items by creating more financial conditions which supports spending. and also by boosting household and business confidence. i don't want to say our tools don't have an effect, they do. there is a piece of this that we can't really address. [inaudible question] mr. powell: there is a challenge. there is no simple answer. what it amounts to is this. what you's is probably the kind of volatility that is typical of an important complex, ongoing negotiation and i think what we need to do is try to look through volatility and react to the underlying forces, the underlying things that are happening that are relative to our mandate. we have nothing to do with

monetary policy decisions? >> in the united states we're blessed with a fairly large committee so as many of you will know, at fulltrength, there are seven governors on the federal open market committee. those are all nominated by the president and confirmed by the senate and we serve 14-year terms. we also have 12 reserve banks around the country and those reserve banks on a rotating basis share five additional votes. so effectively, but when we have our meetings, you know, everyone has a voice at the table. so what that means is that i talk to every other participant on the fomc at least once per fomc cycle and that's eight of those a year. i think that this arrangement of reserve banks around the country and also the seven governors, it guarantees that we will have a diversity of perspectives around the table. the reserve bank presidents are chosen by their boards of directors who are largely private sector people, but with the approval of the board. i think this system guarantees again, a diversity of opinion. there's that risk of group-think if everyone's in the same building and went to the same schools and

continue to implement monetary policy we will over time provide a sufficient supply of reserves so future operations are not required we're fully committed to our goals. the committee contemplates the future path for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monday tire implications for the economic outlook and act as appropriate to sustain the expansion. with a strong labor market inflation near its 2% objective. thanks, i'll be happy to take your questions >> mr. chairman, when you cut rates in july, you characterized it as a mid cycle adjustment is that still your view of what's happening >> as you can see from our policy statement we see a favorite outlook by the way, that view is consistent with many other forecasters. as you can see, fomc thinks this will be adjusted with the federate as examples of an approach was successful in both of those instances. as our statement highlights, there are risks to this positive outlook due to weak global growth and trade developments. then a more extensive set of rate cuts could be appropriate we would follow that path if it became appropriate as we say in our statement we will continue to monitor these developments clos

committee press conferences. he says we need to continue structural reforms and consider what fiscal response can be done to stop monetary policyhe only game in town. it's that ability to influence fiscal policy, and germany that will define the first year or two, i suspect, of her tenure and there in lies the incredible tech away from the ecb. if it can simultaneously provide a stimulus package over the near-term, but show it isn't just easy words, but limited action on the fiscal side, which if you're going to be hypercritical of the draghi era, has been a lot of talk but not a lot of delivery. from his partners. you'relright, simon, going to stick with us. simon talks to us when we come back from brexit. sure,han 60 days now, for until halloween night. the halloween night event. let's get to top stock stories now. , for that we go back to annmarie hordern in london. annmarie: i want to start with one that's close to you in berlin, germany, nearly 2% this morning. stake in ang a 9.99% larger german real estate revel -- rival and starting to combine the two businesses. adecco to the upside. it was updated tamper form from neut

a number of a committee, and it surprised me when powell was first nominated by president trump because he wasn't a dove. he's a mainstream kind of thinker when it comes to monetary policy. i was expecting someone who is a known dove to be appointed. it shouldn't be surprising that powell is being a middle-of-the-road person and not dovish like donald trump seems to want. vonnie: i just want to fact check what larry kudlow said about 4% on wages. i did look it up, and the last three months has been three point 2% year-over-year, 3.3%, 3.2%. what did he mean by 4% plus? alix: he's talking about --ira: he's talking about the momentum, so basically if you took the last three months in isolation and annualized that. that was my point earlier in our discussion, was that the momentum on the wage site has been ok, even though job great.n hasn't been great. the some of that -- the sum of that is ok for the economy, and shows that things might be stabilizing somewhat. the consumer has really been the big heartbeat of the economy so far, with the manufacturing sector continuing to decline and being more of a problem for the economy than a help. vonnie: thank you. ira is bloomberg

monetary policy while remaining independent of politics. now i'd like to turn to the nomination of thomas peter feddo as assistant secretary of the treasury for investment security in the committee on foreign investment in the united states. what we often call cfius. cfius plays an important role in the investment market by reviewing the national security implications of certain transactions involving foreign investment in the united states. congress recognized and underscored the importance of this national security job when it repurposed the previous assistant secretary slot with passage of frma last july. up until that time, the assistant secretary split his time between cfius and work on international markets, and today the assistant secretary for investment and security is dedicated 100% to cfius responsibilities. mr. feddo's nomination comes at an important time in history when china's ambitions forced congress to reevaluate the reliance of u.s.-china commerce and the laws and regulations governing that connectivity. frma expanded the jurisdictional reach of cfius to better protect u.s. cutting edge technology companies from hostile foreign takeover and influence, based on