one is the ratings agency with mortgage securities, with moody's analytics. i have nothing to do with the ratings side of moody's. that is not what i do, i have nothing to do with it. have written fairly extensively on the crisis and the cause, having talked quite a bit about the many factors thriving the crisis, including the ratings agencies. i know it is shameless to plug one of my books, but you might want to go read "financial shock." that will help you to understand where i come from and how i think about the crisis. host: since we are going down this road, in 2008 you were the economic adviser to john mccain. what was your role? an honest role, i was part of the team of economists providing help and support. my specific job was to monitor the daily economic information and data and relay that back to the team, so that that could help to inform the process. i was doing what i do for my day job, watching the economy on a daily basis, trying to make sense out of it, and based on that understand where the economy is headed. next, froms jacksonville, arkansa

and according to chief economist at moody's analytics, confidence is the main ingredient that is missing a stronger u.s. economy. mark joins me now. good to see you. >> thank you, ali. >> this confidence many things can drive it, jobs, housing, the stock market. >> yeah. >> why do we not see this confidence? is it because the recovery is taking too long. >> unemployment is still very high. is a really good economy we would have an unemployment rate of 5.56% something like that. and so we still a lot of unemployed people, and of course pay scales have been repressed for quite sometime. and the recession itself was almost five years ago, but it was pretty debilitating psychologically. >> as an economist, what do you tell peep -- because gdp is no longer a measure that feels good for people. is this a good economy or weak economy? >> for those in the top particularly say third of the distribution, you have doing pretty well, you are lifting your net worth. if you have any debt at all, it's a 30-year fixed mortgage, and you reify down and you are in pretty good shape. if you are in the botto

joining me is chief economic strategist and the chief economist at moody analytics. thank you for being here. really strange numbers came at us this week. friday's jobs report. something a lot of people are scratching their head about. what does it all add up to? >> nugothing. they're not consistent with any data we have gotten. and probably would have played a role, pretty cold. and there is some data in the numbers that suggest, more people not working because of the weather. broadly speaking i don't think anything changed. we'll see that in the subsequent months. >> gain of 74,000. write that off something adjusted. the thing that caught my eye, drop in participation rate. what is happening here? >> well, two things. one is, we do have -- the late 50s, early 60s retiring. the participation rate has fallen by 3 percentage points since the recession. 2 percentage points of that is due to retirement. other percentage point, people discouraged. they can't find work that pays anything. certainly not enough to compensate for, child care, or for, for, getting to work tha

name it but there are economic as well as moral reasons for extending unemployment insurance moody's analytics estimates that every dollar spent in jobless benefits unemployment payments generates a dollar fifty five an economically economic activity and that refusing to extend benefits will cost the economy thirty nine billion dollars this year alone giving people money to spend when they wouldn't spend. otherwise when they would otherwise have been must have the money to spend generates economic activity that otherwise wouldn't exist unemployment insurance has what economists call a multiplier effect first despite all the evidence showing that giving out of work americans money to spend is good for the economy many conservatives say that unemployment insurance creates a culture of laziness number rand paul and little rant you're doing them a disservice by giving them employment benefits get a job to screen up by your bootstraps studies show that people on unemployment insurance actually work harder to find a job than people who aren't on unemployment insurance maybe that's because they can a

let's ask the chief economist from mood ian li moody analytic.y optimistic about a much stronger u.s. economy in 2014, let's start with job growth. you actually think that faster growth could let the u.s. economy reach full employment, which you define as 5.785% by 2017. that means a lot of jobs, how many jobs every month is the u.s. going to have to add to make that happen? >> yeah, right. i am optimistic. i think we'll create on average 250,000 jobs per month over the next several years. of course, current job growth is about 200,000 per month, so i do expect job growth to accelerate. in coming months and a big part that have is related to my optimism about housing and house be construction, i think there will be a lot more jobs coming out that have economy. >> let's talk housing then. the housing market has rebounded, but there are still hundreds of thousands of foreclosures that are still out there. how big of a part of the recovery is housing going to be? >> it's key. you are right, the only drag on housing at this point is that there are st

we were curious how the weather is hitting the economy so we called the economists over at moody's analytics. they told us the frigid temperatures slowed the growth in employment between 60,000 and 75,000 jobs. of that, 25,000 would have been construction jobs, as you might expect. jobs will be a theme in the president's state of the union address tomorrow. he's expected to say that he will bypass congress if necessary and use executive powers to bring relief to the long-term unemployment. there's a debate right now between democrats and republicans over whether extending unemployment benefits encourages people to stay unemployed. nancy cordes went to north carolina to see that debate in action. >> medical assistant in raleigh, you okay with that one? >> yes. >> reporter: at this unemployment office in raleigh, there's a new sense of urgency for job seekers. job counselor larry campbell sees it everyday. >> i've had people say "i'll take anything just to get food on the table." and i understand that. >> reporter: six months ago, the state's republican-led legislature cut unemployment insuran

one is the ratings agency with mortgage securities, with moody's analytics. ve nothing to do with the ratings side of moody's. that is not what i do, i have nothing to do with it. have written fairly extensively on the crisis and the cause, having talked quite a bit about the many factors thriving the crisis, including the ratings agencies. i know it is shameless to plug one of my books, but you might want to go read "financial shock." that will help you to understand where i come from and how i think about the crisis. host: since we are going down this road, in 2008 you were the economic adviser to john mccain. what was your role? an honest role, i was part of the team of economists providing help and support. my specific job was to monitor the daily economic information and data and relay that back to the team, so that that could help to inform the process. i was doing what i do for my day job, watching the economy on a daily basis, trying to make sense out of it, and based on that understand where the economy is headed. next, froms jacksonville, arkansas. w

thanks to the financial collapse of 2008, why all the optimism, let's ask the chief predictor for moody's analytics. mark zander. let's start with job growth. you actually think that faster job growth would, 5.25% by 2017. that means an awful lot of jobs. how many jobs every month is the u.s. going to have to add to make that happen? >> yes, right, i am optimistic. i think we'll create on average 250,000 jobs per month over the next several of years. of course current job growth is about 200,000 per month so i do expect job growth to accelerate. in coming months. and in big part of that is related to my optimism about housing and housing construction. i think there will be a lot more jobs coming out of that part of the economy. >> let's talk housing then. the housing market has rebounded but there are still hundreds of thousands of foreclosures that are still out there. how big a part of the recovery is housing going to be? >> it's key. you're right. the only drag on housing at this point is that there's still a lot of loans that are in the foreclosure process. just to give you a number: 2.25 milli

omy by according to mark zandy, chief economist at moody's analytics. so there's some 17,600 unemployed workers in nevada who have lost their unemployment benefits because this congress failed to do its job in december when we had an opportunity to do it. i urge the speaker, along with 170 of my colleagues, to not adjourn, to not go on recess, until we completed the work of extending the unemployment insurance but that request was not acted upon. and so we're here. and as my colleagues have said, there are things, there are solutions that we can do to extend the unemployment insurance. if you want to offset it, if you want to have pay-fors, i'd like to offer a couple of suggestions on how to pay for it. in order to offset funding for unemployment insurance, congress could close a number of corporate tax loopholes such as eliminating tax incentives for companies to move jobs overseas. why is it that we continue to incentivize major corporations based on u.s. tax policy for shipping jobs overseas when we have americans who are desperate for work right her

now, i said quite enough, joining us from philadelphia, mark zandi, chief economist at moody's analyticsr 200,000 for three months running now. >> yeah. and just going back to the point about accuracy, which i'm very proud of, if you look at the past 13 months over which we've been doing this, we almost nailed the bls right on the nose. you know, down on either side. >> the total. >> pardon me? >> you mean the total job creation when you add up all 13 months. >> yeah, yeah. you know, some months were a little higher than bls, some were a little lower. the net-net is pretty much zero. we're nailing it. i'm pretty happy with the accuracy of it. >> what does that tell you about what's going on? >> it's a great number. you know, to me, it signals -- i mean, i'm almost positive this is it. we're off and running. we've jumped to a new level of growth. we've been 2%ish gdp growth for most of the economic recovery. i think we're now at least 3%. in the second half of last year, 2013, it looks like we got 4% growth. q3 was 4% and our tracking estimate is close to 4%. >> a couple things, glenn hub

moody's analytics expects growth this year at about a 3% pace, accelerating in 2015, about 4%. does that sound reasonable to use the? when the budget comes out we will have a new forecast for 2014, and 2015, but broadly speaking there's a lot of things that are unpredictable in the economy. there's always a lot of risks. we are constantly reminded that events in the rest of the world can have a very big impact on the u.s. economy. but broadly speaking the thing that is the most predictable right now is the fiscal policy. last year we cut the deficit by 2.7% of gdp in a single year, which was a big head went for the economy and the private sector muscle through that headwind. in 2014 were not going to have anything resembling that magnitude of deficit reduction. we'll continue to see the deficit coming down. we will continue to be stabilizing the debt but we will be in a much less contractionary fiscal stance pics i think that's the single most important reason we are more optimistic about 2014. >> and 2015 as well? >> and 2015 as well. and the other thing is just in terms of th

moody's analytics says north dakota this year will see a growth of jobs in more than 3.5%, the biggestrizona's forecast is a 3% increase. texas, 2 3/4 percent. >>> there's the capital dome. can you make it out? it's getting shell lacked and plastered by the snowfall rate of an inch an hour, near the rain/snow line. >> that was mike seidel's report from snowy indianapolis last sunday and made us yearn for a snowy get-away. palm springs, california, is the best place to go in the u.s. for a winter respite. san i bell and cap teva islands ranked second. and mccallan, texas third-best. those are your number-ones. ght? ♪ like, really big... then expanded? ♪ or their new product tanked? ♪ or not? what if they embrace new technology instead? ♪ imagine a company's future with the future of trading. company profile. a research tool on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. but he's got such sensitive skin that you worry about what you use in the laundry. my tide, downy, and bounce all come in free & gentle. so we get a cleaner, softer blankie. [ gasps ] [ female announcer ] tide, downy, and bounce fr

mark zandy, chief economist at moody's analytics has found that for every $1 spent on grows yment insurance, the economy $1.55. these dollars serklating through the economy create jobs. despite statements to the contrary, no one wants to be unemployed. americans want to work. it's part of the american ethos. it's also part of the american ethos to help our fellow citizens out when they are down. we all must remember that, but for the grace of god go i. i close by asking speaker boehner to bring an emergency unemployment benefit extension benefit to the floor and in doing so not only help our economy but more importantly, millions of deserving and unemployed americans. mr. speaker, i yield back to the gentleman from las vegas. . mr. horsford: thank you. and i'd like to thank the gentlelady from new york. thank you for your hard work and for bringing your perspective to the need for extending the unemployment insurance benefits to the 1.3 million americans who, as of this week, have now lost receiving that benefit. this is the week that they would have otherwise received that unemployment ins

according to moody's analytics, every dollar of unemployment insurance generates $1.55 in new economic activity in the first year. the bipartisan congressional budget office estimates that 200,000 jobs could be lost in our economy if unemployment insurance is not extended. we must act and act immediately to extend unpliment insurance. so i call on my republican colleagues to bring the emergency unemployment compensation extension act that is h.r. 3824 to the house floor an pass it now. with one in five american children living in poverty, it is clear that the war on poverty has gone on for far too long. let's take action now to help all americans share in our nation's growth and prosperity. let's bring an unemployment insurance bill to the floor and let's bring it now. let's bring a substantive jobs bill to the floor now and let's bring a minimum wage increase to the floor now. american families have suffered enough. it's time to restore the american dream. as i wrap up, let me just say this on behalf of the american people. i hear these arguments every day from the opposite side of th