elga bartsch is cohead of economics at morgan stanley and has run their european shop for years. minimal inflation in the u.s., clearly a conundrum for vice chair fisher -- for vice chair stanley fischer. you guys argue like cats and dogs, and you do not come to a consensus or one view. there is a number of nuances within it. how much is everybody on the same page in your new economic outlook? we have spent in a norm us amount of time to debate it internally, and i think with the baseline calling that the economy is ok -- yes, the economy is disappointing, but that's yes, the recovery is disappointing, but it is continuing. the gradual return of inflation to central-bank targets over the next 12 to 18 months is still what everybody is expecting. but that puts us at odds with markets, which are pricing in, in europe, much lower inflation rates for late 2016. within you see this ellen zentner's inflation or almost disinflation, a call for something that does not work? elga: i think there were a number of really interesting papers saying that the top academics are trying to grapple

now morgan stanley has given the green light for european stocks. what does it mean? the investment bank issued the first full house buy signal since january of 2009. basically all five of the timing indicators hitting by territory. on average, equities rise 23% over the 12 months after you have a bottoming out. stay tuned because we'll be speaking to the man behind that call, morgan stanley's chief european equity strategist will be joining us? just under 30 minutes time. so stay with us to hear more details on that call. we'll see you just after this short break. you're watching worldwide exchange. why weigh yourself down? try new aveeno® sheer hydration. its active naturals® oat formula... ...goes on feather light. absorbs in seconds... ...keeps skin healthy looking... ...and soft. aveeno®. naturally beautiful results. >>> u.s. futures indicating a triple move higher after the worst start to the month for stocks since 2009. european equities giving up gains this morning. they trade in the red after a choppy session seen in asia and oil still in retreat with brent b

first of all, check out morgan stanley shares. if you look at the stock, on this side of the screen, you can see the shorter term average price of the stock dropping below the longer term average price. something traders call a death cross. could it be a signal that momentum is shifting. morgan stanley is hitting that. and check out the other names close to the down side. goldman sachs, you can see here, toz trend lines are starting to converge and perhaps we'll see a negative sign there. and then on the other side of the banking spectrum, wells fargo, does a lot of lending, those shares as well, seeing the down side perhaps momentum indicators show up here as welcome. so if you check out morgan stanley, already in a death cross and goldman sachs and wells fargo close to there. footballs very much a -- financials very much a focus. back to you, melissa. >> thank you dom chu. >> a few weeks ago, here is what carter said about the banks. >> if we were to go back to this trend line, this implied another 12% to 15%. >> i think you lov

morgan stanley is already hitting that. check out a couple other big names getting close to that momentum indicator turning to the down side. goldman sachs, you can see here, those trend lines are starting to converge. perhaps we'll see maybe negative sign there. and then on the other side of the banking spectrum, wells fargo, huge bank, doesn't do a lot of securities but does a lot of lending. those shares as well seeing those downside perhaps momentum indicators show up here as well. so if you check out morgan stanley already in the death cross, goldman sachs, wells fargo getting close to there, financials very much a focus. back over to you, melissa. >> thanks so much, dom chu. just a couple weeks ago, here's what cohen harter said about the banks. >> if we were just to go back to this trend line h this implies another 12% to 15%. >> i think you look to the november 24-22 spread in the xlf. >> and of course, as you know, since the time of that trade, it's only gotten worse for the financials. carter, what do you make of

first of all, check out morgan stanley shares. you can see the shorter term average price of the stock dropping below the price. some call it death cross. could it be a signal momentum is shifting? then check out a couple of these other big names getting close to the indicator turning to the down side. goldman sachs, you can see the lines starting to converge. perhaps we'll see a negative sign there. on the other side of the banking spectrum, wells fargo doesn't do securities but a lot of lending. those shares seeing the down side show up here as well. if you check out morgan stanley, goldman sachs getting across there. back over to you, melissa. >> thanks so much. just a couple of weeks ago, here's what carter said about the banks. >> if we were just to go back on the line, this implies another 12-15%. >> yeah, i think you look to the november 24th spread in the xlf. >> and of course, since the time of the trade it's only gotten worse. what do you see and make of the death crosses? >> do you want to start with that first? >> what

joining us is drew hawkins, managing director and the head of morgan stanley entertainment and scott. it's great to see you both again. >> thank you for having us. >> these are issues that happen to professional athletes but could happen to just about anything, things that go wrong. >> you hear a lot of stories, but it translates into what regular people do. it's about thinking about planning and savings. things that people need to think about earlier in their lives when it comes to their finances. >> so what sort of advice do you give people? what do you tell people? >> on the player's side, how to really relate to having a plan, being smart with aggressive savings out of the gate. any given sunday was an awesome movie that came out years ago, but that's reality and situations occur where the lives in terms of athletes are not defined. they're short-lived and having an aggressive program to be prepared for the certainties and some of the things we preach to them out of the gate. >> you were just listening to the package. you seemed a little shocked when you found out about the starbu

morgan stanley looking at lower growth, higher inflation. five rate increases from now until the end of 2016. a slower path, and all of that reflected in stocks. what ist to point out really moving the markets, and that's energy stocks. take a picture of the last week and a half of energy stocks. we saw the big selloff. then we see stabilization. when we get to the level where the selloff started last time, bam. the cell of starts again. it is time for the options inside. hey, matt. first off, i would a look at the major averages and how they are performing. obviously it has been a big down day. they are down 318. at 1935.00 down 1.9% joining me today, kevin kelly, the chief investment officer at recon capital partners. kevin, we were talking about the vix curve being inverted. why do you explain what that is in what it means to you as an investor? kevin: it means in the future that vix is expected to be lower. around the 25 level, you could see it going to april of next year, being lower, indicating the futures market is seeing totally comi

i think morgan stanley wins on that.te equity guys win on that. >> it's great to talk to you. thanks for coming on. and talking about this call. thought? >> no, i was going to ask him sort of a separate banking question that we're not paying any attention to but ultimately when the fed starts to raise rates, there's a lot of question about deposits at a lot of these banks and what impact that will have -- >> i think people are try to get more bullish on the banks for that very reason. >> i wanted to ask him, maybe we have a view here his arguments in favor of trading revenue and the border environments have absolutely come to pass and yet the stock has gone from 80 bucks. what was it about golden along the way where the stock effectively doubled? even though the broader environment was, as he noted correctly, was not good? >> anything else you have -- >> filled with questions. >> i have a lot of questions for people. >> apparently you do. >> how many times have we heard somebody else is going after goldman in a positive

alix: morgan stanley says it could lead to bigger tightening if the markets are not expecting it.tune in tonight at 6:00 eastern time for a primetime bloomberg surveillance special. you will not want to miss it. thank you for watching. alix: emily: i'm emily chang. this is bloomberg west. investors bet on the state of oracles cloud business. uber ceo talks about prices and robots with marc benioff. bill gurley on amazon's challenge. all that ahead ooo

that's why i'm so excited to work and partner with morgan stanley to go out and get kids at a collegiate level to give them the information before all the leeches come on and they can't hear you. when they become a professional, they don't know who to trust but get to them early and i think if you establish a relationship with them, set ground rules, get a general understanding, you give them options and tools to make an informed decision. athletes are cultural. if we get information, i think we let these kids come out and make millions of dollars for games and say, you got it from here. >> you've been in the middle of this. what's it like to be at the top of the game, try to be performing and not know what you're doing with the stuff? maybe not necessarily have a background in financial. >> a lot of times, we're the first people. the members of our family, our household to go to college. we can't go back and ask our parents what to do with it. so it's just uninformed decisions and what happens is a lot of us come from urban areas and we're used to seeing the schemes but we become prey t

. >> morgan stanley has given the green light for european stocks. they issued the first full house buy signal since january of 2009 with all five timing indicators hitting by at the toir. on average, equities rise 23% over the 12 months following the trough. we'll be speaking to graham joining us at 11:30 cet. in the meantime we have henry dixon. thank you for joining us on a very interesting week for equities. traders returning to their desk and we've been seeing a lot of volatility and that wasn't just abaugust story. it could be a september story as well. >> there's no shortage of intelligent conclusions that can be drawn. anyone who felt, you know, european and u.k. equities were great value i think that's incorrect but the stories about china got worse and worse. the very simple thing for the chinese market from our perspective was, you know, six weeks ago it was trading on 24 times. there's only two points in history where markets got this expensive. it was the nasdaq in 2000 and japan in the late 80s. so starting valuation is everything when

you're going to refinance, do it now because you might have until december >> i firmly agree morgan stanleyade the call that the feds will raise the rates in december because the jobs report will be coming out, large businesses will be reporting their earnings report. we expect them to be positive this is going to give europe was in the middle of reorganizing also and asia time to come back. which have more data so we believe there is a high probability they will raise the rates in december but it will be de minimis. it will be small. a quarter of a percent? an 8th of a percent? what the market really wants to know what the individual investor wants to know who's reinvesting, they want to know is it going to go up dramatically. should i get off the fence and get in now and so that's the part that hurts the individual investor and the person who wants to buy a home. what will happen if they raise rates in december and we hope that the feds articulate exactly what will happen >> george for morgan stanley. thank you for being here >> thank you, pam. rosemary i got a message on facebook. people

morgan stanley upgrading.s go to equal weight from underweight. >> they're doing some cost cutting and morgan stanley is freak being out about it. i don't really understand. like so the stock is up, it's having a decent day. these are not great names at these current valuations. none of them are cheap. a lot of them have been elevated because they're dividend. yes, you can always cut costs but i'm just not sure this is a reason i want to pile in it today. >> what about mcdonald's? you are going to get all-day breakfast. >> surprised these guys showed up for work, tell you the truth. first of all, congratulations on celebrate being yellow taxi day with the shirts. appreciate it. >> what are you doing? schtick? >> i don't think it will move the needle that much. >> move the needing? >> on the scale. >> i'll weigh in on mcdonald's. >> yes, you did. yes, you will. >> go, quick. >> not going to matter. this is just another reason for millennials and young parents to avoid this store all day. they don't want to eat

one analyst says yes. >>> plus fitbit popping on an upgrade over at morgan stanley.our experiments think it's a good fit for your portfolio? we are counting down to apple's big event tomorrow. what to expect, how to play it. >>> a look at the major averages today. we're hanging off the highs. nonetheless. a reversal from friday. that's the dow up 270. there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution. guaranteed. did you see it? in one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. this just in: 50 million customers' data was not compromised this morning in a security breach that didn't happen. wall street. not rattled. at all. no. not at all. not at all. i mean, look at the day. sir. sir. what went right? what went right? everything. thank you. with threat intelligence, behavioral analytics, and 6000 experts, ibm security will help keep you

what i hear is this, morgan stanley is balking.e that confirmed, morgan stanley said, no way, they would pick off individual teams, but they're not going to buy the whole thing, all 200 of them particularly at the price being asked. so far jpmorgan is balking, from what i understand. they don't want it. one possible name i keep hearing is steeple nicholas. just bought barclays, but they have to digest that. seems like this is out of his ballpark too, and i heard it from people close to him that it's not being talked about within the firm, at least not now. so credit suisse is having a very difficult time trying to unload this thing, and it's part of a broader corporate mission as all these your even banks, you know, they're looking for economies of scale. they're looking to squeeze the, squeeze the lemon, get as much, you know, focused on a core business as possible here in the u.s. ubs has done that, barclays is doing that, stripping down, getting smaller. credit suisse is doing that. one easy way to cut is the brokerage departmen

jim caron with us, with morgan stanley, with real money at risk.y, let's have a cocktail look. what did janet yellen not say yesterday? she talked for ever. what did she not say? she understated the health of the u.s. economy, some of the good points. tom: she touched it did not say this is the way it is. jim: when she came out and was dovish, i think that is the right action for the fed. they made the decision and kept rates on hold. for themmake no sense to say we are dovish but let me give you a hawkish message. that is what the markets were looking for but not what they coulgot. i think what she did was correct. the market is trying to figure out what the fed's reaction function is, meaning how they are going to respond to economic data. and what we at, morgan stanley investment management do, is we break it down into one of our models we call the financial conditions index. i think there is a reaction to this and output. the output is her optimal control. that is the way she is going to move fed. the input is what she is telling us, that there

that is pretty much in line with the morgan stanley view.he fed is going to be very late in hiking. when they are starting to hike, it is going to be a process. we have the view that the u.s. dollar is very strong. this is pretty much in support of each other. simply because the increase we are currently seeing in the u.s. dollar is a safe haven related flow. american investors which have been investing in emerging markets for so long are taking this liquidity back into u.s. dollars. the u.s. dollar is no longer cheap. it is expensive. each time, when you have am expensive dollar which becomes more expensive, risk appetite isn't looking great. that is why the japanese yen is doing well. people are building expectations. boj, are they going to ease? i think in japan, it is much more about fiscal policy instead of monetary policy. guy: plenty more still to discuss. after the break, we will be talking about sab miller. beer. ♪ 6:30 here in london. slowing down the industrial profits with a decline from earlier and the most since 2011. are 67%.n

and she spent her whole career at google, i mean at morgan stanley. but she wanted a change. and she is just so smart and a huge asset for google at a time when they had lost a lot of very prominent women. i mean you know sheryl sandberg went to facebook, morrisa myer went to take the c.e.o. job at yahoo!. megan smith left google last year to become the chief technology officer of the unites states. so in terms of female talent, ruth porat is a big win. your friend jong mack, the former c.e.o. of morgan stanley played a role in getting ruth to-- to google. >> rose: to google. >> uh-huh. >> rose: the interesting thing too is a bunch of issues involve women of which one is income don't know what thelem is solution is. the problem is even greater than we thought. and in this issue and on-line we have a chart shows all the bureau of labor statistics, job categories. there are about more than a hundred. and you know, guess how many, i don't know if you have seen it yet but guess how many jobs there are where women make at least as much as men out of a hundred. >> rose: how many. >

later in the week, morgan stanley comes out and says it is only 56. -- 5.6.the crew report which came out a couple months ago as well. i think there is more justification for those numbers. when you look at the economy of puerto rico, a lot of reforms need to take place. it is unlikely that debt will be higher rather than smaller. scarlet: thank you for joining us. peter hayes's black rocks head of municipal bonds. covers munith bonds. the have more coming up in the next half hour and we will go over the statement from volkswagen ceo martin winter war and who it -- martin winterkorn. ♪ >> bloomberg television's brought to you by at&t, your small business experts are here. scarlet: it's for the p.m. in london. >> welcome to the "bloomberg market day." volkswagen has a government investigation in germany. we get you caught up on all the headlines. ,> bank of america shareholders a report from south carolina. >> and other momentous meeting as xi jinping arrives for visit. one hot topics will be on the table? how will they resolve their differences? scarlet: good

mark: talk about hair loss between goldman and morgan stanley.ou have that in your story today. -- talk about the differences. they invited to bank holding companies, they fell under the federal reserve. they got more scrutiny on their commodities businesses. the crux is that while wall street does not love all of this new regulation, this came at a pretty good time for them. morgan stanley got out of its montane business because of this year tori -- regulatory pressure. they did pretty well. they sold last july before the value of oil dropped off a cliff. mark: they are seeing less competition in commodities trading amongst each other? michael: they have had to deal with the rise of glencore and some other firms, but within the bank, a lot of them have scaled back. jpmorgan has scaled back its physical businesses. berkeley, deutsche bank have scaled back. did not while they expand, they have not cut back as much. they are still one of the main players among the banks. mark: interesting last comment in your story, you spoke to the then cfo of gol

this as citi and morgan stanley are not convinced by the rally. >> and shares fall amid speculation the head of the china europe is being detained as part of a wider probe into beijing as part of the market volatility. >>> welcome to the show. we have got euro zone august manufacturing pmi data coming in at 52.3. the forecast was 52.4. the july region also 52.4 so fractionally below estimates. euros rally strongly throughout today's session. that's not off the back of the pmi data. it's off the back of bearish sentiment leading people to think a possibility in the delay of a rate hike. let's recap the other data we had earlier. italian pmi was 53.8. that was a slight miss. french pmi was 48.3. german pmi was 53.3. a very slight beat. all of that summed together with european pmi 52.3. >> europe now at 113 against the u.s. dollar. we'll have to keep an eye on the currency which in august gained about 4% against the u.s. dollar. that's one of the reasons we saw the exporters in europe respond negatively and we'll have to see what happens in september. especially if china continues to deva

furtheroving down with risk of cord cutting according to morgan stanley.kinny pay-tv bundles are becoming a think i guess, scarlet, do you have that? i'm assuming you have everything. scarlet: we have the fact tv bundle because we need the live sports. matt: we need everything, but the kids down. scarlet: that's true. the kids do not but they watch anything. matt: i have everything you could possibly have cable wise, but i watch only the xbox. i get to everything through the xbox, so i guess i don't need cable except for sports. scarlet: thank you so much. we will check in with matt miller shortly. not for look at top stories. flash flooding has killed at least eight people in a utah and arizona border town and five others are missing. the wall of water washed away two vehicles carried 16 women and children in the community that serves as a polygamist sect led by warren just. in northern california, two wildfires have destroyed weathered 700 homes, and most of the damage has been caused i a fire 25 miles north of napa valley. one person has been killed and

scarlet: morgan stanley. here is the chart that proves it.his is the first full house by since 2009. we will see if this pans out. alix: turning back to the u.s., the job report will come out in two days. we are two weeks away from the fed's big meeting. scarlet: foreign-exchange reserves are being drawn down in what is being called quantitative tightening. alix: good to have you. when you look at the central banks winding down reserves, do you feel like this is quantitative tightening? are we looking at less liquidity? guest: no. not necessarily. there are stages of length and it's broader measures of credit. they can easily offset that through buying domestic assets or reducing reserve requirements. those measures can offset any affect that declining reserves would have on narrow money. and then on to broad money. if we were in the case of china, we would expect lending rates to be going up and we are not really seeing that. central banks have a strong ability to control domestic interest rates and liquidity conditions, even if currency val

strategyd of global fx at morgan stanley.ting out of south korea at a point when all the markets in that part of the world are under pressure. can you walk me through how long it will take to fully understand the implications of the chinese violation? whether another japanese respond? how does the mechanics work in this one? hans: first of all i would say that the chinese evaluation, how you call it the evaluation, there can deliver lies the market. at one time, it was just an adjustment. that is the really big issue. the big issue in asia is you have seen many of these economies developing overcapacity. they are now trying to utilize this capacity. tryhen you do that, and you to cut prices, you have to seek demand from elsewhere -- what we are seeing in the vote, those potentials are declining. look at the united states. the fed is suggesting that the growth potential maybe at 1.6%. the question there is how do you utilize overcapacity when your main client base is no longer having the growth potential to create the demand?

and she spent her whole career at morgan stanley, but she wanted a change.nd she is just so smart and a huge asset for google at a time of veryy had lost a lot prominent women. sheryl sandberg went to facebook. marissa mayer left them -- to t take the job at yahoo! megan smith left google to become the chief technology officer of the united states. so, in terms of female talent, ruth porat is a big win. john mack played a role in getting ruth to google. charlie: the interesting thing, too, a whole bunch of issues involve women of which -- income disparity. is, i doe problem not know what the solution is -- the problem is greater than we thought. wethis issue and online, have a chart that shows all the bureau of labor statistics job categories. there are about, more than 100. and you know, guess how many -- i do not know if you have seen it -- but guess how many jobs there are where women make at least as much as men out of 100? charlie: how many? pattie: two. charlie: i was thinking below five. pattie: two. so, the problem is even worse than we thought. and,

talk about another bank, morgan stanley. here is what morgan stanley done. cut 12 month outlook on s&p more than 3%. this is due to expectations of higher inflation and a rate hike by the fed. we've been talking about it, no buzzer intended. is this a sign of more trouble to come? let's bring in our bull and our bear. joining me, jason rotman, president of lido aisle advisors. and jason, i know you're a bear we talked before. did you hear what gerri just said, don't tell people to sell now in the middle of what is a down month. can you at least tell our viewers that? >> i can, i can. especially if that makes you happy. most importantly for the viewers financial health i don't think it is the worst thing in the world to try to make some adjustments. i'm not advising, i'm not advising people to panic but at the same time, here is a little interesting factoid for everybody. sector of the market that has performed the best out of any other sector when the markets have been correcting or either been in bear markets is utilities sector. there are utilities out the

well maybe because graduates have gone on to work at credit swiss, morgan stanley, and a median based salary of $85,000, the first year out of school. more impressively, a few years down the line, with a little experience under their belt, a quant might command a salary of a quarter of a million, with a bonus of $500,000 or more. >> rewards could be the size of achievement. you have done something great. and the work that comes with it. the financial strip, you know, if you did something great, it can be measured. i can disintegrate and do it with parts. >> with oo 100% -- a 100% placement rapt. it seems the opportunities on wall street are almost limitless for students with a degree in financial engineering, and it may be the in other words that have the last laugh. >> how fast are we going? >> the old cruise control is 35. >> that's our show for today, >> the standoff between refugees and riot police in hungary continues for a second day. eu leaders prepare for emergency talks. hello, you are watching al jazeera from doha. their deaths shined a spotlight on the refugee crisis. now t

richard sharma of morgan stanley -- ruchir sharma of morgan stanley. and adam posen. get to top headlines. here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: in greece, alexis tsipras has been returned to power after agreeing to austerity measures. he campaigned against them originally. he received 35% of the vote. he will form a coalition government with the center-right new democracy party. now he will have to make the tax hikes and spending cuts he agreed to. investors are hammering volkswagen over that air pollution test scandal in the u.s. shares of vw have fallen as much as 22% in europe. feed elliott has admitted to cheating on the 10th -- cw has admitted to cheating on the test for years. it has halted sales of the cars that were involved. falling after two days of gains. federal reserve policymakers are making the case for an interest rate hike later this year. san francisco fed president john williams over the weekend. >> the natural next step is to gradually start raising interest rates. it is the appropriate time to begin that process. maker jamespolicy bullard and james lache

firm, heting his got these top dealmakers and hired morgan stanley's former head of latin america.e will have to use that phoning a lot -- that phone a lot. battery life is another reason. who knew? pimm: it will be a status symbol. scarlet: thank you for joining us. great anecdote about the samsung flip phone. , the dangers of climate change. not just the environmental risks, but the financial ones. who is worried. it will surprise you. ♪ pimm: this is the bloomberg market day. scarlet: at a dinner for lloyd's of london on tuesday night, mark carney delivered a message about the financial impact of climate change. >> once climate change becomes a defining issue, financial and stability it may be too late. hugeet: ensures could face losses because of potential disasters and doing our mental regulations could change the value of assets. of all the things he chose to , he fixated on climate change. pimm: we just had a meeting between president obama and xi jinping appeared on the agenda was climate change. one of the big issues is cap and trade as a tool in order to ofigate the emiss

george noceti from morgan stanley, thanks for being with us.have any questions for him, send it to him on our facebook or twitter and use the hashtag. >>> finding a parking spot around the bay area may be a little tougher today than usual because today is parking day. it's an annual event that encourages people to turn parking spots into small parks or parklets, if you will. the event started in san francisco ten years ago and has since gone global. anyone can participate but organizers are encouraging everyone to feed the meters and abide by parking restrictions >> that's a big deal >>> time is 7:48. >> sal, you will be taking part in parking day, too, right. >> i already did. >> i took frank somerville's parking spot. that's right. [ laughter ]. >> frank, if you are watching, that's me in your parking spot. >> no, you didn't. >> hello, i'm frank somerville. this is the anchorman's traffic spot. i'm allowing james -- that's where somerville pulls his expensive european car. oh, he is going to be mad. >> you better clear up before he gets in he

morgan stanley said they could lose as it is as many as 400,000 car sales this year.a: ryan joining us from london. hans nichols at the headquarters. we saw him earlier on. that brings us to our twitter question today. is the auto sector now ripe? we heard from the chief executive of chrysler, he talks about m&a needing to happen in this industry to drive higher margin. he thinks that everyone's attempts to innovate and feel efficiency -- innovate in fuel efficiency. janet yellen has confirmed that the u.s. is still on track to raise interest rates if you. but which factors are weighing on the central bank? bloomberg reports from new york. joe: we heard from fed chair janet yellen reiterated her call that a fed rate hike is likely in the cards in 2015. but it was certainly not a guaranteed thing, not a hawkish statement. the markets did not move too much after the news. she continued to say there was no reason to wait until inflation hit 2%. but obviously, she is still paying attention to all of the things that are concerning everyone -- global markets, financial vola

morgan stanley went to $58 this is a 58 target for the stock, very impressive what they've been able to accomplish. we know about the ipo in june and we've seen reaction from the stock. it's been resilient and it's because they've got market share and they've got brand and they're beating all the big boys now, because of the reasons, think the stock gets over 40, i'm not so sure about the $50. >> we're watching shares of cheniere energy, under pressure after jim chainos revealing he's short that name. >> with the stock at 30 times 2020 earnings. >> with the upside coming from a glutted market we think the risk-reward given where other lngs are in australia and elsewhere are completely out of whack. >>. >> a looming zast certificate how chanos described cheniere, what do you think? >> i think when he says looming disaster, he's talking about the entire lng industry. he's been at this for a while. he shorted other lng names in the past. he believes when you look now at the iranian deal that we have and cheap oil prices, that lng on a longer-term basis is not going to be viable. don't k

says the head of global macro investing at morgan stanley. he continues. americans have reduced their debt burden more than the europeans. why china's debt has skrieryrocd to extremely dangerous levels. since the 2008 crisis u.s. equity markets have out performed all others. in fact, nine of the ten most valuable companies in the world are now american. the dollar is the currency of choice, closed quotes. when i was in europe last week businessmen there were concerned with what they saw as a new level of american dominance in everything from technology to entertainment to finance. consider america's big banks. they were at the epicenter of the global financial crisis. they were badly battered by it. then they faced lots of new regulations which critics said would cripple them. well, america's banks today are more dominant than ever. "the wall street journal" notes that in the last five years, jpmorgan chase, bank of america, citigroup, goldman sachs and morgan stanley have collectively increased in value by $254.6 billion. in the same period the european c

morgan stanley was saying if rates go up today, the fed be getting lessons from 1994.that something you have been looking back to? kit: i spend way too much time looking back. when i started doing this for a living, i thought we would debate whether the lowest level or -.25.was minus one definitely, 1994 was the last time the market had the closest to this in terms of how narrow the gap was between two-year yields and fed funds going into the first type. and it was very bloody for the next several months. but on the other hand, we do not have a paper transfer. instantly different. i only have this one fo olish notion that the only thing that happened after they raised rates was that it went down. that doesn't mean that it will happen now. but that is the one thing i can find in my mind that is always happen. guy: is this useful? last time, we were going into a rate cycle, everything was very different. everything was much more normal. kit, to the point you made earlier on, we are moving from a very low rate to what could be described as a normal rate. is that jump bigg

adam park certificate here, morgan stanley's chief strategist.s are set to rally more than 10% over the next year. our game plan today looks like this. crude reality, why goldman sachs says oil could hit $20 a barrel. what that means to your money. buy the builders? with housing one of the brightest spots in the economy.

i do my own work because i've worked on wall street, i know morgan stanley, for instance, very happyr. that's a huge account because that's, again, a combination with city. but you never mention any financials so i think people may think maybe they don't have big financials. >> well, morgan stanley is a financial services customer. they're not yet a customer for the financial product line. so for the financial product line we have big companies in the pipeline. we only said about four months ago that we were ready to take on fortune 500 companies for financials. >> right. >> and the pipeline doubled from q-3 to q-2, the pipeline doubled which i haven't seen in a long time in any company. we do have big names. chuck e. cheese is one of our favorite customers. lifetime fitness. netflix runs our financial products so there are a few names. when you get to the fortune 20, fortune 100, they're coming. you'll see them in the next three quarters. >> last question. we're in san francisco, it's obvious people are in demand, computer science, computer engineering. if your stock doesn't climb,

adam park certificate here, morgan stanley's chief strategist. who thinks stocks are set to rally more than 10% over the next year. our game plan today looks like this. crude reality, why goldman sachs says oil could hit $20 a barrel. what that means to your money. buy the builders? with housing one of the brightest spots in the economy. are the stocks in that space really a best bet? someone on the street says yes. our experts are going to weigh in. we begin with the markets, stocks trying to go positive yet again at this hour. it is the final trading day of the week. investors now turn their attention to next week that two-day fed meeting, wednesday and thursday. josh, you get the feeling as though people may be paralyzed a little bit until they figure out exactly what the fed is going to do next week. >> i'm going to tell you something, this is one of the most fascinating times to be a market participate that i can remember in my entire career. if you look at the technicals. they line up perfectly with the biggest theme on the street. what's t

equity strategist at morgan stanley. adam, good morning. >> good morning.arts of the market that are fascinating if not worrisome to watch. what's happening with glencore. junk bonds coming in to the weekend. arguably biotech is rolling over on friday. what do you think overall about the strength of the market now? >> well, look. we're pretty optimistic as we see old economy, new economy bifurcation. we're under weight in materials. i think there's pockets in consumer, pockets in technology, pockets in health care. our view you want to own large cap growth stocks where growth is scarce. >> doubling down on consumer discretionary importantly despite the fact that perhaps we haven't seen the savings from gasoline appear as people have hoped yet. >> i think that's a big thing. first of all discretionary is the best performing. big controversy is how much of that gas savings comes through. we think it will. we think we're starting to see signs of consumer. saw better personal spending data this morning. think back to july. a watershed moment. amazon prime day i

. >> it is sponsored in part by morgan stanley. >> we have this time-honored tradition, we play word association. gary: new york times. ken: foolish. anthony: hurricane sandy. ken: a great opportunity for all of us to do our best. gary: facebook. ken: we don' t seize the opportunities that lie before us as americans. anthony: dick grosso. ken: the best. anthony: elaborate a little bit. ken: he got the worst schooling a human being could get. look at the exchange today? it is gone. they could argue it wouldn' t have happened, but i would push back. he understood that listings were critical. he spent his life on the road getting listings. he was 1200 when he took over, to 2800 when he was fired. anthony: on september 17, 2001, he got the exchange open. ken: that monday morning and not a glitch. y2k? everybody was terrified that it would blow up? he had dry run after dry run after dry run, and the first day of the new year of the new millennium -- nothing. anthony: we want to think ken langone for spending time with "wall street week." that is it for today. you can check in with us all

a surprise higher at google, she worked at morgan stanley for 30 years. she's not in the ceo or anything but investors really like having her. she's also going to be part of the new alphabet holding company, the ceo of that and when she did her first earnings call, sue, the stock went up so that google's market value went up by $65 billion. a powerful woman. another woman, katherine kennedy, president of lucas films. she was the secretary to steven spielberg and george lucas. she's now running the show and pro producer of the latest star wars saga. >> angela at apple, why did she come up and ceo of avon. we know about avon and the trouble and including that they may be target of a private equity buy. >> shari mccoy is down from 27 to 49. she was the business model of avon ladies calling. over at apple, angela has, you know, the retail savvy, been there less than a year. she's supposed to be creating new roles for the apple stores. we'll see. she was behind the launch for apple watch. >> susie, it's great to see you. taylor swift made the list, too. >> num

. >> "wall street week" is sponsored in part by morgan stanley, where capital creates change. anthony: let' s start with you, jim. where does the year end up? james: in the equity markets. anthony: in the equity markets. your life. [laughter] james: i actually think the equity markets are going to move a little bit higher. the volatility is here to stay. china is going to contribute to that. one of the risks his credit. credit, if for some reason credit gets pulled, that' s a little different. i know mutual funds are lacking in cash. if there were some redemptions, you could see some selling. we believe the equity markets move higher. anthony: donald, what do you think? donald: january 1, i predicted 18,800 for the dow. i' m sticking with it. dick: i will go to the s&p and say it' s at or slightly above 2000. anthony: what do you think? gary: the good thing is, i have to basically listen, and i' m not going to make a prediction. honestly, i don' t know. i think what has happened the last couple weeks and towards the end of the summer has created an atmosphere where i think we

all of katie's doctors at johns hopkins hospital in maryland and here in new york, columbia now morgan stanley children's hospital and katie's home nursing care five days a week and, of course, port authority police and liz's coworkers, she is a special education teacher and katie just holding her hand, elise, the strength, the strength, she is an adult now and she was not expected to get past five years old, three to five years old blessed by pope john paul ii. >> unbelievable. i know. no tears. we are just going to talk weather. i know. keep it moving. >>> so we have amazing weather thanks to some high pressure. a live look outside. we have a little bit of sunshine out there. that's kind of been the case all day. we have had sunshine peeking out but for the most part we'll call this a mostly cloudy day. we are still sitting at 71 degrees which is our high on the day. 74, it's a 30-year average what we consider normal. we didn't get there today. that's unusual. we have been above average for so many days this summer but not today. the interesting thing is as we head toward the first day of fa