jp morgan, morgan stanley for that potential trading unit ipo. the valuations sky high right now in that particular part of the world. tom: cold elon musk be involved? jonathan: i'm not sure about that. would you let's talk about the twitter deal? lisa: of course he doesn't. [laughter] tom: let's talk about what matters, which is brent crude $115. an hour ago, even with a good tape and the data check we need to do, brent front and center. jonathan: futures up 1.5% come of the nasdaq up by 2%. that tells you about the lack of confidence after we have been beaten up in this market so badly over the last few months. you'd's higher by three basis points. that inverse correlation is back. yields bouncing by three basis points. 3.20% the high two months ago. tom: now joining us, and this is a really important conversation for you on radio and television, with 30 plus years of brown brothers harriman, synthesizes and all of the eco-bible into the markets -- eco-babble into the markets. all of the fed speakers, how do you tell them to calm down about inf

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while american eagle management did take down their estimates for the full year, morgan stanley saidear, 2021, which was strong for american eagle but they said all of that sales growth came from their ability to increase the costs, the average unit retail, the prices that consumers pay really went up and that accounted for almost all the sales growth in 2021 as consumers are more pressured right now in this year, they're probably going to be a little more reluctant to pay those higher prices, not to mention american eagle inventory is up 46% year over year much, much higher than sales growth and they're not alone we saw higher inventories across the board. morgan stanley says, look, as we look across the retailers, there's too much inventory there's going to have to be discounting. consumers will be discerning the last point i would make, sara, you've got this growing business in aerie but it leans toward the casual consumer life style. those aren't the categories that are selling so it's not that the consumer isn't strong, it's that their preferences are changing and management isn

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because that is not a customer transaction -- this is morgan stanley p operating on its own and turnbuy puts on the basket and short the futures which are expiring all of that volume is dumped at the open of the market and the stocks get crushed it has nothing to do with rational thought it is all about market structure. >> i appreciate the compliment i'm a market geek. you described the frustrating part of our job. trying to find a headline. we can't come on the air and sa i don't know i'll talk to the guys and say what is the gamut on the trade i want to know the swimmng tim, let's say i go out for dinner and they have ten nightly specials on offer. ten people in the restaurant it should be fine. there's 30 people from outside online who are going after it. maybe artificially, the same special. is that kind of what is happening with etfs where it expands access, but not artificially to the same product, but it is a huge swing to the down side because all of the extra people cominginto th restaurant at the same time. >> yes the short answer is yes. i can add some color to that i'm w

we will see what morgan stanley says about that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ kailey: it is a battle between the bulls in the bears. morgan stanley's mike wilson sees the s&p 500 falling in the near term, potentially as low as 3460. jp morgan says negativity in the u.s. stock market has become so overwhelming that rebounds may not be far off. with us for more is katerina simonetti. clearly, your colleague at morgan stanley is the one on the bearish end of that sector. where does that downtime come from? >> thank you for having me on. it is the perfect storm of negative pressures on the market, when you think about it. we have inflation, which is at the 40-year high. it is pretty profit ability over the companies. we have the federal reserve, which is aggressively raising rates, which is a solid strategy, but is perceived as negative by the market. and we have the geopolitical risk by the situation in ukraine, which adds a huge element of uncertainty. with all of this, we are finding ourselves smack in the middle of the bear market. but our

morgan stanley and jp morgan upgraded.n if the economy were to into recession, we believe the banking industry would handle it better than any recession in history. we are not economists, but this is unlikely to go straight from labor shortages to recession given the large pullback in the stocks and medullary -- and moderately higher estimates. the pe multiple is down to 52%. tom: they are very constructive on the markets. they have participated in this bull market. but again, people adapt. companies adapt. central banks adapt. jonathan: they are looking for 30% upside from here. the market has now picked up on high yields translating is better for bank stocks. that has just not been the story over the last few months. year-to-date, we have seen this massive move in yields, and banks have not participated. tom: slotted in is a two hour conversation we can have this morning with kenneth rogoff, professor of economics at harvard, the former imf chief economist, but far more than that, truly one of our thinkers of this moment

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let's get more insight from matthew hornbach, from morgan stanley.t has been a rough couple of days when you look at the market, extreme selloff, stocks, bonds. i am curious where the labor question falls into and what are investors reacting to? is it the 75 basis points, labor partitioned -- labor participation rate? matthew: thank you for having me on and thank you to all of the mothers -- and happy mother's day to all of the mothers out there. i think what is coming next week is more important, the cpi inflation report. we have had a couple of inflation reports. i am thinking about the pce numbers we have gotten over the past few months and they have been more reasonable reports than what we had over the four months prior to that. i think ultimately it comes down to inflation and next week's report will be key to markets going forward. guy: what do you think that number is going to look like? matthew: we think it is going to be a good number. ultimately the trend with underlying inflation in the u.s. are strong, particularly with the housing marke

morgan stanley. who comes in? guy: what are the attorneys?t story on what is happening with this twitter takeover. can this deal happen given what is happening more broadly in the tech space? we watch carefully. the next 24 hours will look interesting. tomorrow is the 13th. i am not going to draw a connection with it being friday, but there it is. supply and demand coming out later. biden holding a summit. g7 ministers meeting in germany, talking about ukraine. big day today and tomorrow. alix: i am looking forward to that report, but also we get the preliminary reading for may with inflation expectations at the consumer level versus the investor level. that difference will be fascinating to watch. coming up, tyler goodspeed, former council of economic advisers chairman joyce balance of power with david westman. guy and i are off to cable. this is bloomberg. ♪ xfinity mobile runs on america's most reliable 5g network, but for up to half the price of verizon so you have more money for more stuff. this phone? fewer groceries. this phone? more g

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[ding] get e*trade from morgan stanley and start trading today. >>> thanks for watching.th, i want to ask with you legal mind, what impacts do you think the hearings will have on the country. many of the people or most of people involved have faced the judge how or the legal system in some way. how do you think it will affect the court of public opinion once it happens and is playing out on television? >> i think it will be impactful in that the court of public opinion is the electorate. this is who it's for. people have to remember the legislative branch has a goal in mind of trying to prevent this from happening again. these are people who asked to lead from voters. what they have spent the better part of nearly two years or year and a half doing will be of paramount of importance. this has been a huge issue. i think congress would make a mistake to over estimate the attention span of the american ele

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simon has a 6% yield and is basely the last man standing in mall space morgan stanley is my favoriteecause it's been pivoting to the more stable wealth management business that's principally the reason we selected it for the trust. tonight i want to highlight five more accidental high yielders. huntington bank shares i thought they were great. truest, they haven't been on best buy, i love them. they're so good whirlpool, and digital realty. huntington and truest are regional banks they make more money every time the fed tightens because they can pay you roughly the same interest on your deposits and invest that money risk free in short term treasuries. the big national banks have too much capital market exposure but that's not a problem for the regionals. huntington is a columbus, ohio, based bank that's expanding across the midwest and it sports a very robust 4.8% yield they have solid deposit growth, solid loan growth, and most importantly, the midwest is a winner as american companies bring back domestic manufacturing capacity in a world of strained global supply chains they also

morgan stanley says odds increased 20% over 5% a short time ago cpi at 8%. ppi at 11% what does that mean for companies that have strong earnings and ability to provided dividends? doesn't it eat into the ability to provide the dividend? >> it will eat into the ability to increase the dividend at the same clip. you need the earnings to support the dividend growth. you will focus on aristocrats or dividends. i can tell my son to go to the mall and buy anything we want with a credit card it doesn't mean we can afford it we need to invest in companies with the earnings growth to support that dividend growth if the earnings growth slows, which it will, across the board, you can still have stock prices appreciate even in periods of high inflation in a recession that will not go up 20% or 25% or 30% another name is the old dow chemical thinking with the home builder theme. a stock has been able to successfully put its pricing into the customer from the supply chains which are still there and paying more for goods, but passing on the costs to the customer sales are

here's the quote from morgan stanley. markets will have to confront rising probability regardless.n if it is not the base case the probabilities are shifting. tom: we are in the middle of two once-in-a-lifetime moments, the pandemic and some more grim news on covid, from the really good news of last couple of weeks, and then completely separate from that, the war, which maria tadeo is dissecting for us. everybody has adapted. i am using the bloomberg foreign-exchange as a litmus paper. jonathan: bramo, hoping for better news this wednesday. lisa: how much will it matter? how much is this a geopolitical story the fed has lost control over? jonathan: the nasdaq down 2.4%. yields 3.18 on the 10 year. from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. vladimir putin been vote russia's fight against nazi germany as he defended his faltering invasion of ukraine. at the victory celebration he said the russian military is defending what our fathers, and great grandfathers fought for. president zelenskyy responded on twitter,

the em debt is approaching $100 trillion james lower joins me from morgan stanley. clearly investors in advanced economy equities are jittery massive selling taking place across the u.s. and modern equity how is em investor sentiment >> it is pretty bad. i spent the last couple weeks on the road seeing clients. the feedback from investors in europe and in the u.s. is negative really. emerging market investors are used to dealing with a strong dollar that is a feature of the global currency market for the last ten years. that is always a feature you know, at the same time, you also are now dealing with higher u.s. treasury yields emerging markets are hit by higher treasury yields and dollar and domestic inflation dollar which is leading to rate hikes and steep losses for the em investors the sentiment out there is pretty negative. >> what might be the turning point, then, for sentiment perhaps this is the most difficult question to ask and one investors across asset classes and regions are asking have we hit peak bearishness >>i think in some ways we have hit peak be

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one of the estimates from morgan stanley. 8.1% down from 8.5%.y from payrolls into cpi, what is the focus for you? michael: it will be the poor rate. we know we will see energy and food price pressures continue, especially with ukraine and russia. is the core rate slowing down? we saw that with the pce numbers. if the core rate is moderating that would give the fed some hope their interest rate increases would have some effect. we also want to look at what housing is doing. that will take a long time to come down. jonathan: awesome work yesterday. great to see you back in the room in the news conference. isn't that good to see, to get them back together again? it is a reunion for economists in washington. tom: we are seeing that in all sorts of things and it does speak to the optimism. the gentleman from st. louis has an optimism of resilient american economy. jonathan: the gentleman from st. louis is scheduled to speak tomorrow alongside governor walla. just to go through the data, 200,000, upside surprise, still very low for initial jobless cla

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i'm naeema huq abrar, and we are morgan stanley. what do you think healthier looks like?you support your nutrition, sleep, immune system, energy ...even skin. so healthier can look a lot like...you. cvs. healthier happens together. >>> welcome back a quick menu of everything that is happening today the small business optimism index coming out we will see if that drops. more speeches from the key fed leaders and new york's john williams highlights from peloton and electronic arts and wynn results. those are earnings let's welcome in chris murphy at susquehanna. we have learned from you, options run the show now they not only tell us what will happen or where the bets are placed, but move equities around what are you seeing from your perch on the options market? any sign of full capitulation yet? >> good morning, brian so, you know, we are certainly getting closer we are not seeing that full capitulation sign yet. the two things that we are always looking at is volatility expectation. they spiked. that is the vix. they spiked, but not nearly as much as it did in the great f

jp morgan versus morgan stanley.n stanley, mike wilson on the team think the bear market is implement cleat -- is incomplete. jp morgan thinks we are being too negative on equities and rates as well. that's the equity market. morgan stanley had a really interesting view on the yield curve. they think you should keep a bias towards flat and there's. they think the -- towards flatteners. the think the long end remains range bound to get think china. that would make sense coming into last month, but the nields broke out again, and it broke out a little bit through 3% for the first time since 2018. we pull back a little bit. the curve is flatter by a basis point, the tenure lower. want to talk about europe because in germany we broke out on the 10-year gilts through 1% for the first time -- the 10 year yield through 1% for the first time since 2015. why is that interesting? because what we had from the ecb in 2015 was the start of sovereign debt in the asset purchase program. tom keene, this time the euro is weaker as th

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tom: mike wilson, thank you so much, with morgan stanley here this morning. he has been just stunning, dead on. lisa: he sees that 3400 mark as being possible for the s&p, and i got to say, how much capitulation if there's not going to be wholesale capitulation do you have to get if there is a drift lower? by the way, someone on twitter asking you for a friend if you can invest in the triple leveraged goat fund from switzerland. tom: we've got the goat fund here. i don't know if you can hear it, but were lisa and i are sitting, the goats will be like six feet away. lisa: they are literally haggling us. tom: this is the ellen's and their goat farm -- ellen zentner goat farm, actually, brought to you by morgan stanley. ellen's and her -- ellen zentner was over flyfishing in switzerland once and picked up 40 acres of a goat farm. on radio, this is important. we've got to describe this. it's only fair. it is like avalanche territory here at davos. there's literally those safety gates up protecting from avalanche. and it is the frugality of the swiss. they've got

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mike wilson over at morgan stanley and the team writing this on the equity side of things.eek was adjusted the bear market was reaching the phase when virtually nothing would work, even defensives." that seems to be exactly what is happening. lisa: it has been a really rough moment because both bonds and stocks have sold often tandem. nothing seems to be working at a time when you've got the dueling ideas of inflation, a very hot labor market, as well as worries about some of the down -- some kind of downturn in the later half of the year. jonathan: let's have that discussion with the chief u.s. financial economist at oxford economics. we love catching up with you. let's get straight to wednesday. what do you expect to hear from chairman powell? >> thanks, jon. happy to be with you. i think we are going to have to rely on the forward guidance and any tweaks to the policy because we will not be getting revised gdp or inflation or those infamous dot plot estimates. it really does come down to the messaging and any kind of forward must -- any kind of forward guidance he provid

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i am peter akwaboah and we are morgan stanley. >>> welcome back to "fast money. not letting today's sell-off get in the way of gains, shares climbing 1%. some of the other big box retailers manage to go stay in the green amid the carnage so should you bet on these big box names? i mean, in theory, pete, this is where you go no matter what, times are good or times are bad? >> you are totally right i think walmart finally got into a position after being overpriced for long period of time and sort of the stock kind of holding stagnant nor a while and starting to move to the upside as the earnings got better when you look at a forward of 22 times earnings that's reasonable i think. i think. maybe it's a little bit inflated i think that's reasonable. i can't figure out target. i love that. you know that i know that name i have been in that stock a long period of time i think they have done most everything right stock was 260. i think it's closer to 225 now when you look at the forward pe and the teens, thisis too cheap i take target over walmart i have been trading wa

and morgan stanley senior internet equity analyst. brian novak, good morning to you, before we get to the move ahead. did anything fundamental for cap tech names change last week? >> thanks for having me. i would say a few things stand out that are notable, the first thing is, generally speaking, across all the space, the consumer continues to hold up for now, you know, amazon is still seeing very robust demand, no real sign of weakness in the advertising markets, which are very predicated on strengthening e-commerce first bunch line, the consumer for now is still holding up quite well important for the whole space. there are certain idiosyncratic factors, on meta and facebook, they are actually making more progress on driving engagement of their new reels product, which we think is important for the long-term monetization, and turning the narrative on that asset. we like the progress that meta is making a lot of run reels. on amazon, i think the punch line is they overbuilt and they overhired and it is going to take a little longer f

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we are morgan stanley. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com ♪ >>> welcome to "cnn newsroom."ing to the federal reserve issuing their biggest rate hike in 20 years. now, this is wiping out all of yesterday's gains, and it's not just stocks feeling the impact. gas prices, mortgage rates also rising. cnn business's editor-at-large, richard quest, is with us now. what's going on? >> yesterday was an aberration predicated on some weirdness of what the chairman of the fed said. today, we're bac

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i always listen to morgan stanley katie hubert on this stuff.had that nikkei report saying it is delayed and she threw cold water on that we may be flat keep in mind, coming off the super cycle from the 12 and 13 this lull was kind of expected >> steve, thanks for that. watching apple closely on a day we were surprised to get back above 4k now halfway between 4k and 4100. let's get to the half. >>> thanks so much welcome to the halftime report front and center, stocks on track to break the longest weekly losing streak in two decades. how sustainable is the bounce. is one name in particular holding the key to that question we'll explain and debate it with the investment committee jason snipe, josh brown, jon najarian, founder of market rebellion.com, jenny harrington, and also for the a block, an as tash a omarosa good to see you in the h

it is being arranged by morgan stanley. there is skepticism.l news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ ries. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> but i'm going to do -- it seems about right's me in the second half of the year. if we do not have it, we might have to speed up. it will be done more than what we might be predicting. jonathan: they just want to get through the summit and reassess the whole thing. from new york city this morning, good morning. that is an hour and 42 minutes away. a little bit more. the nasdaq 100 is up a little bit more so. we are down six or seven basis points. that was the cleveland fed president. we have a labor market that is so overstimulated. a market where you can pull back a lot of demand and it would actually be a good thing. tom: extraordinary from an official. many disagree with that. i understand the economics of it. for most americans, job and job demand is a very good thing. jonathan: we seem to be havin

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it's overdone at morgan stanley, we've calculated out garcia 25% probability of a recession within the next 12 months, and we've it'll probably be two years before we actually see a recession. these things move very slowly, so we have time. to really fix the potential of a recession and maybe make it a slowdown in the economy with several things we can do. i mean, look, you're talking recession. jpmorgan has a 70% possibility. goldman sachs is 35. even talk of a recession is enough to make me and many others very nervous. if there is any preparing to do now, what can americans do? well let let me let me just tell you right now there's an action plan going forward. the federal reserve is in charge of our monetary supply is trying to lower inflation bike by increasing the banking rates. so the market is worried about that. well they get it too hot, too cold. and will they follow the goldilocks syndrome and get it just right. i tend to think that they'll get close to that. but the market is very speculum and worries about you know, raising the rates if the rates are too high, and it slows

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