morgan and vichy of morgan stanley. is it that black-and-white question mark is a recession and inevitable at this point? >> i thick it is not as black and part -- black and white. it is very difficult to say in point and say this is happening imminently. we don't have a good sense of how the tighter financial conditions and tighter lending conditions that will come out of what we expect to come out how quickly and how it will play out, i think it is safe to say the prospects for growth have gone further. we have the deceleration of growth that we have been seeing and it probably continues on that and the chances of a hard landing. the timing of which is yet unclear. katie: on that point, we caught up with a rep of deutsche bank earlier today and he said tighter credit could lead to a landing that some will not anticipate. let's take a listen. >> we do think ready conditions are going to tighten the way we have tried to quantify it, suggesting it could be .5% of growth or certainly more than 1% but it is difficult to ga

meantime, morgan stanley's oadam jonas today remains the top pick, ferrari.he general point is they avoid a lot of the ev hype and the ev risk obviously, the base business is historically respected, but he says they continue to be underestimated in the ev opportunity. image i think their target is $310 >> they're talking about crossover, getting to parity between combustion and ev by 2032 the comp that morgan stanley uses for ferrari is hermes literally. it goes to the whole valuation, the margin structure it's a luxury good they're a bigger market cap than gm or ford >> $70 billion market value for ferrari. >> like five, six times sales, and gm and ford are at 0.3 times. >> maybe bernard is going to buy this too brand name, rich margins >> lvmh is bigger than walmart, you know what i mean this is not unique to autos, that the luxury brands get capitalized. >> i'd love to read the synergy analysis on that one >>> signs of stalling momentum in the housing market. we'll talk to the ceo of one home builder about what he's seeing in this environment where we have

. >> i'm thinking back to the first day of svb coverage where morgan stanley called them highly idiosyncratic a four-to-one update, getting close to what some think will be a gut check at 4100. >> the regulators didn't treat it as idiosyncratic. they treated it as systematically important and they took swift and sdedecisive action they did that for svb and others and put in lots of liquidity to stop the contagion so far so good, at least it's working. but as we've been talking about, the bank stocks haven't had such a big bounce there's a rethink on the bank profile and profitability. >> with earnings a couple of weeks away we'll start with the momentum trade, stocks closing out with tech in a clear liv leadership position the jpmorgan desk asking if sentiment is shifting around the edges. they say sellers have been aggressive at the lows they say it's technical for momentum they say investors need to start making their bets very fast. krnks senior market commentator mike santoli joins us. do you go along with that. >> i would argue the bears on the macro economy are highly convicted, but the

the names being discussed by washington journal right now are jp morgan and morgan stanley. nd morgan stanley acting on their own discretion? or are they being nudged towards this by the regulators? >> there is a little bit of both. first republic like i said, there is a lot to like about it. remember they sold off a lot. there a lot of things that have been discussed in the last couple days n this time period first republic, they are stock heavy bounded. looked like they were in the woods, and then cut to junk by s&p. that's when things changed in the market. you are seeing their exbid capital here looks -- equity capital here looks different than two days ago. when it comes to the federal reserve and the banks and the fdic bear and charge, regulators are always in charge when it comes to the banks. alix: i have to have the feeling that jamie diamond has learned his lesson from 2008. the trauma that happened after that. i feel like this line has to be real clear >> let me speak in generalities. we had a lot of discussions. that is absolutely true. certainly the case for sili

economist at morgan stanley and andreas jobst head of macroeconomics at allianz. where they differ is the forecast in cuts. andreas: critically important is the fed is currently very much driven by data. setting policy rates and guiding forward. data that is coming in is the best coincidental, or, also, when you look at the employment data, it comes with lag. so, we believe that there is a recession in the making. we see indications not only in terms of monetary, but also, the labor market is showing signs of significant weakness. when it comes to the starting of the pivot, q3, q4, a contraction of about one percentage point, that is largely driven by savings that have been completely spent and consumers really cutting back on expenditure. this means the u.s. will then head for a negative quarter in q3 and q4. >> let's bring it back to the pause call that a good chunk of wall street is estimating. ellen, if we get apostate a on the concern of the banking system, will that pave the way for a volker repeat? a.k.a., chairman powell's worst nightmare? ellen: certainly

gorman and the executives of morgan stanley in the last four hours. i must ask, because you are with wealth management, how do you contain the phone calls? how do you contain deposit inflows of a certain flight four -- to quality? lisa s.: the most of more and think we are talking to clients about right now is getting folks to understand the difference between what happened in the great financial crisis and what is happening now. in 2007-2008, we had a massive credit problem. there was a quality of credit default risk issue.

david: index projections out of morgan stanley.arious equity benchmarks, still with us on set, jonathan gardner, chief strategist at morgan stanley. we were talking through the break, underweight u.s., overweight part of the world. help us understand the broad thinking. jonathan: it is diversion economic parts, particularly out of china, but also the china's -- companies that trade with china, like korea and taiwan are doing better than the u.s. with that diversion growth earnings revisions. we are seeing revisions unfolding in asia. at the time our colleagues in the u.s. expect significant downside in earnings estimates there. david: that pmi number that china released, i think it was about a week and a half ago, was higher than what the market expected. to your point in earnings revisions, where you starting to see which specific markets that is, the trough, pickup in some cases? jonathan: the key to this china recoveries the consumer, both in services and goods spending. that is where we are seeing it start to form. for the big

morgan stanley says it's too early to buy stocks. friedman also agrees >>> sara, double line's chief investment officer jeffrey sherman is with us yields are falling as investors continue to fly to safety, bidding up government bonds. we have details on why credit suisse bondholders are absolutely outraged this morning. >>> later, former s.e.c. chairman jay clayton penning an op-ed with solutions to save the banking system and the levels to which deposit insurance should be raised. >> it's a great conversation, given what you just said with nelson peltz this past hour. >> lots of ideas these days. markets, as you can see, heading towards session high level dow up over 1% the s&p 500 up 0.75% 3947 sara, still below that 4,000 level. the nasdaq is trailing, lagging, if you want to call it that, up 0.25%. if you look at the overall picture, it is stability, which the bulls could try to latch onto in some way, shape or form at this point. >> the nasdaq has gone positive in the last few minutes. topping the tape, the massive overseas bank

deloitte. the morgan stanley client experience?istening more than talking, and a personalized plan ♪ to guide you through a changing world. ♪ >> we have the payrolls report on the 10th. >> chair powell this week. >> chairman pollan for the house financial services. >> i think they will stick to the script. >> we expect him to deliver the messages he has been. >> he will underscore the fact that inflation continues to be there. >> whether you get enough of the information before the next fed meeting. >> what happens in terms of the questioning of powell is another thing. >> we have key data coming out. >> we are certainly beholden to the data at this point. >> the fed is data dependent. we are data dependent. the market is data dependent. kailey: as i said earlier, buckle up. investors gearing up for important information this week which gets us to the question of the day -- is this the biggest week of the year? joining us is eric freedman the cio of u.s. bank national. can we go home after this we co. i think my basketball team and

morgan and morgan stanley helping out first republic, is pac west? >> the inference is it j.p. an and the largest banks are going to help out first republic, it's just a sign of confidence over all. i don't think they need to do anything else to dip into western alliance or any other bank that is viewed as potentially vulnerable. it's more of the fact that this is a decisive action by the government in conjunction with the largest banks. kriti: we have to talk about management because this is a rising rate environment. folks were managing trillions of dollars of money have never witnessed this kind of aggressive hiking cycle. the folks in the c-suite of these regional banks, are they prepared for this? >> i think it's a rude awakening of what the market reaction is if there is too much duration risk. the issue going forward is that interest rate risks have to be managed more conservatively that's going to be the name of the game. it means markets will be contracting and not be as aggressive with your interest rate policy in terms of investing in securities and doing fixed rate r

morgan stanley thinks we could see a rally soon. hold on a second.lking last week about a morgan stanley guy who forecasted a big drop? >> 25% down. stuart: right? >> yes, that is morgan stanley, agree with you. everyone is saying the same thing. well if you're bearish all of a sudden you're saying it's a mid-term bullish rally that we're seeing, so they said because of the resistance in the 200 day moving average so technicals so the fact you didn't sell-off with yields crossing with the highest since 2017, so morgan stanley says there could be a 2.5% upside for the s&p 500, we could get to 4,150 before we possibly go down 25% by the end of the first half of this year. stuart: i guess you have to follow it really closely. >> so morgan stanley also says by the end of this year, the s&p is going to finish at 3,900 so not that much downside. stuart: real fast, meta and amazon you got any insight on them? >> so meta, i didn't see much in terms of news. in fact there was news that an analyst cut their recommendation on meta stock but the stock is still u

charles schaub down nearly 33% morgan stanley, hitting them with a downgrade on fears more cash could be heading out the door and billions of unrealized losses are on the books. but could there be more than meets the eye on this wall street call? >>> and later, magical move for apple? why one pop media analyst thinks the tech giant should buy disney we'll do a little corporate matchmaking of our own this is "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site full desk here tonight and we are going to start with stocks stretching to the finishing of the quarter with another day of gains. nasdaq again leads the way, closing above the 12,000 mark. first time we've seen that in six weeks. s&p 500 and the dow also inching higher, with the industrials now less than 1% from going positive on the year. and take a look at the nasdaq 100, posting its best close of 2023, and now its highest level since back in august big tech helping those gains names like envid ya, meta, tesla, up 50% each but should you be trading this rally or fading it into the close of the quarter tim? >> well, i think you shoul

morgan stanley says one big cap tech name has 50% upside ahead. we'll break down some of those calls. the ceo of carnival is with us after reporting results earlier this morning. thi what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today. what if you were a gigantic snack food maker? and you had to wrestle a massively complex supply chain to satisfy cravings from tokyo to toledo? so you partner with ibm consulting to bring together data and workflows so that every driver and merchandiser can serve up jalapeño, sesame, and chocolate-covered goodness with real-time, data-driven precision. let's create supply chains that have an appetite for performance. ibm. let's create. >>> a lot of notes crossing our desk this morning. here are a few grabbing our att

due in part to analysts over at morgan stanley who cut their rating on the retail brokerage and bank holding company it's now equal weight. it was overweight tomorrow the target price goes to $68 it was $99 they cited amongst other things less visibility for customer deposit outflows and an increasing regulatory landscape. those shares down 6% also more bad news on the jobs front. roku shares have reversed course and are now marketly lower to the tune of around 4% after gains earlier on they're cutting another 200 jobs or roughly 6% of its workforce the second round of layoffs, the first of which occurred last november for a similar number of employees. roku down 4% we'll end on kohl's which is up 4% after their ceo recently disclosed the purchase, yes, purchase, of over 90,000 shares of company stock worth over $2 million. that's by the way his first insider purchase since taking over as ceo earlier this year. that'sdriving that upside for kohl's, up 4%. >> thank you very much >>> for a closer look at the technology, let's bring in kristina partsinevelos who is in the house. >> i'm

so either jpmorgan or morgan stanley might even buy first republic.e since first republic was cut to junk status the yesterday by standard & poor's, and credit suisse, meantime, we can show you the international banking pressures here, now trading lower despite the fact they got that $54 billion lifeline from the swiss central bank. but the ecb going ahead e to raise rates by 50 basis points this morning because of high inflation. i think that really brought down credit suisse's stock. also that means the fed is probably going to raise at least 25 basis points next week which is a crag can on the markets. -- drag on the markets. i read a really smart note from goldman sachs on the economy and the strategy, and they now put recession risks at a 35% probability. most people on wall street say it's 60% probability. of a recession in the next 12 months. but also just strategy, where does the capital flight go and what are the second and third order movements because of silicon valley bank's collapse and because of first republic. they're talking about cus

that's what you get from the morgan stanley client experience.ou get listening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology. you get grit, vision, and the creativity to guide you through a changing world. ♪ i count on personalized financial advice from my ameriprise advisor. she knows my goals and can help me reach them with confidence. the markets may fluctuate but you're still on track. more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. >>> here's our cnbc news update this hour. emmanuel macron is bypassing lawmakers and using a special constitutional power to impose a controversial increase in the country's retirement age to 64 from 62. the move came just before a vote in the national assembly where opponents reacted with rage as macron's move has been seen as controversial. >>> in israel protesters blocking roads and skirmishes with police after benjamin netanyahu rejected a compromise that would have scaled back his plan to weaken the judiciary >>> and china, iran and rus

morgan stanley, jp morgan, citibank, the whole list of the larger banks. the thing that people have been forgetting is our job as an investor, as a fiduciary sitting on the board to these companies, is to make sure we are giving them the best device and to help them think about what they need to do. for a large set of us, we started giving this advice a couple weeks ago, more so over the last week and over the last 24 to 48 hours. it is about diversifying the risk and how you are sweeping that cash, into treasuries depending on how many deposits you have in the first place. the second piece is that a lot of these companies do rely on banks. silicon valley bank was a pillar of the committee that helped support -- of the community that helped support a lot of venture funds. they were a lender for capital. funds banked with them, the funds themselves. this reverberates pretty quickly in the ecosystem around what it will look like for not just the companies but their backers. we do not bank with svb. we bank with a larger set of providers, and our capital call

that's what you get from the morgan stanley client experience.et listening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology. you get grit, vision, and the creativity to guide you through a changing world. ♪ the eagle has landed. that's one small throu step for man...rld. hey, what's up? uh... houston... we have a situation. how did you get here? you're characters in our video game! video game? yeah, it's what we do with xfinity 10g. it's like, you know, the best network imaginable. what the heck is that? those are the bad guys. are they friendly? the 10g network, only from xfinity. one giant leap for mankind. >>> welcome back everyone to "power lunch." markets bouncing back just a bit at this hour reports that switzerland is now holding some talks on how to stabilize credit suisse. meantime, rick santelli live at the cbo with more on today's tumultuous action. rick >> reporter: yeah. there's a lot of action. as a matter of fact, a lot of people are calling for cleanup on aisle 12. all i know is that if you co

vishy's chief income strategist at morgan stanley.e historic fixed income. i love what you say. we are feeling it every day at bloomberg surveillance. it is a data haze. there is no question. where out there is the clarity you write of? vishy: there is a data haze, it is conflicting signals. on the one hand, we have -- just now, that is giving a different signal. the pmi orders giving a new signal. the signal weakness, the leading economic indicators on the conference board. on the other hand, we had a gangbusters taylor number. we had strong retail sales. we had many conflicting data. this, i think this weekend the next week, are performing weeks for getting some sense of when is this data, what are the data telling us? tom: on a blended basis, can you use the new, ample coupon to protect yourself if we get further priced down, yield up? vishy: in fact, that is the case. we are recommending to our clients neutral duration so it doesn't feel like -- in lieu of 20, 50 basis point on either side can happen this week and next week. we ar

kriti: seth carpenter of morgan stanley, you can watch every day on bloomberg markets. romaine: did he answer my question? kriti: i don't think he did but that was on purpose. we think you as always for joining us. coming up, meta-is set to be planning layoffs this week and we will look at what it means for the state of the jobs market and whether it could influence fed policy, that conversation next. this is bloomberg. ♪ go. go scientist. go software. go cure. go production. go faster and safer. emerson automation software helps breakthrough medicines get to market at warp speed. go human go. go boldly. emerson. >> the fed is doing their job, trying to tighten financial conditions but the problem for them as we have the bank of japan and the eeoc adding liquidity and a dollar that is softening which is neutralizing the fed's goals of tightening financial conditions. that's also breathing life into assets. we're confident between now and the next earnings season, that will be when we think the next bear market decline happens. it will be a more meaningful decline, 10% o

stocks, morgan stanley are very wary. dani: they are worried. we will hear what mike wilson had to say. the perpetual bear, but it is playing out. let me show you what equities are doing so far. the asia story is impacted by higher yields, there is other stuff going on. this massive rally that we talked about with stephen gallo, the impact of china's really strong data on the global picture, investors are now perhaps concerned that the strong data also means the mpc this weekend won't deliver as much stimulus as perhaps the market hopes for. you have this asian equities falling. hstech leads the way. euro stocks and ftse futures down. nasdaq futures down. manus: goldman wants to go for non-us stocks among better inflows. they are buying themselves because in japan and europe. across my assets, the house prices down. house prices slide, i am sure my postcode is probably battered at the sharpest annual pace since 2012. you have that coming down, because it is bailey saying nothing is decided until it is decided. and giving him optionality that may

you were running morgan stanley. the banks and taken on a lot of risk.ave a similar issue now? >> i don't think so. the banking issue at silicon valley bank is pretty straightforward what they were doing, who they were underwriting. if you go back to the crisis here in new york when the markets were really volatile, we were just taking market risk. we were not taking tremendous credit risk with companies or individuals. when you look at wall street back then, a lot of our risks are in government securities. loading up the balance sheet making the bet on interest rates not on credit. the difference today is the credit risk not so much the interest-rate risk. >> we have interest-rate risk now -- the fed is meeting just this week. we don't know if it's going to raise risk -- raise rates again or not. there banks as well as corporations that have based their whole theory on low interest rates forever. how much risk is there in terms of interest-rate risk in the system? >> not as much as we have seen in the past. i don't see banks taking on that kind of risk

morgan stanley cio mike wilson, back in october, said the macro is not going to drive trade, earningsill. that switch still has not kicked in. that brings us to exactly what we are going to get any four hours from now. the major rate decision from the federal reserve. are they going to pause or hike? that seems to be the question. >> personally, i would like them to pause. i would like them to see what has been happening in the banking sector. everything that is happen this week and last week. we need a little breather to figure out what is going on in the markets. they can pause. they have another chance to hike six weeks from now. it's not like they pause and are never allowed to hike. jon: obviously, we are going to see a lot of views leading into that decision for the fed. the banking sector is going to be watching very closely because we are trying to determine the sensitivity of that sector right now. that brings us to our stock of the hour. we just showed you that 50% plus advance for first republic. those shooters shaking off the record low we saw on monday, as the lender look

no trade from morgan stanley. power e trade's easy to use tools make complex trading. less complicated. customs can help you find new trading opportunities while in earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market trade from morgan stanley. my most important kitchen tool, my brain, so i choose areva plus, unlike some others, plus is a multitasker supporting six key indicators of brain health. help keep me sharp, areva think bigger. this morning. russian president vladimir putin says he is planning to put tactical nuclear weapons in belarus. those weapons are for the battlefield. not long range attacks comes as west steps up military support for ukraine. the us says it sees no sign of an imminent risk. matthew chance is live for us in moscow this morning. hello to you, matthew, what is putin up to here? what is the global response to this announcement, ben? yeah well, i mean, he's definitely rattling his nuclear saber once again is we've got used to, and he does that. you know, of course, to send a message to the rest of the world that you know, ev

the surface, charles schwab is the worst performing stock on the s&p getting a downgrade from morgan stanley saying profitability was lower by 30% of this year. people staying with charles schwab, losing a lot of the low fee deposits. it's a big probability problem. is that the same for the regionals and does it feedthrough to the underlying economy? if you like that's the question we are all trying to grapple with. now bed bath, that's just a fun story. they said today yeah we are probably going to go bankrupt i bring it up because carnival is one of the top performing stocks in the s&p. so there are still some company stories with difficulty. consumer stocks, like h&m, are doing well. carnival with its second upgrade in about two days. i don't know how much of this will be positioning at the end of the quarter but 412 is where we are on the two-year, guy. guy: yeah, end of the day, stoxx 600 is up over 7%. do we have an economic problem? through the filter of the stock market, maybe not. how can you have this doom and gloom scenario with the possibility of cuts if we had stocks performing

morgan stanley is worry about them flowing away from schwab.alk about that story later but stock is down about 5.5%. within technology, you had a good move story this week with micron results. semtec is taking a hit, down about 20% on concerns about the market. shares of blackberry basically not changed and we are watching that in canada. the company will report its quarterly results and they told us they missed out on some key deals during the quarter. we will watch for more details on a portfolio sale. restoration hardware's parent company rh 3% and this is a reminder of the sensitivity out there, it's a company that caters to people in the housing market and with the uncertainty we are seeing emma that's being reflected in their business as well. vonnie: the contraction in bank lending is sending some ripples through the credit markets. here is amandalyn on bloomberg this morning. am >> we are already seeing some signs under the surface of levels of distress picking up in the credit market. if you leave the default rate aside which is fairly

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what do you get from the morgan stanley client experience?happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. this is ge aerospace, advancing flight for future generations. ♪ welcome to a new era of flight. >>> e+kosing int( on 20 minutes closing in on 20 minutes until the closing bell. the s&p 500 up 0.5%. let's get toe1 stocks to watch. >> two big weekly outperformers starting with gamestop, thet( bt weekçó since may after posting e first quarterly profit in two yearsxd and the stock's first weekly gamexd in five. it is more than 50% after the recent highs anz( up in today's trade. another big gamer is on holding, heading for the best weeke1 sin going public in 2021.t( this is the swiss running shoe company that has become very popular. the quarterly results on tuesday, including a street high priceok target of $39 and ubs currentlyñr trading at $31 andç change. >> thank you. >>> it is the last chance to weigh in on a

what do you get from the morgan stanley client experience?>>> time fries on "the half." stef? >> dr pepper, revenues and profit, gross margin operating margin will expand throughout the year, giving pricing action. >> jim? >> alaska airlines. the airlines in general has been hit with news over the last couple of weeks, but they all gave reports last week at one of the investment conferences. i like alaska. >> joshua brown? >> onon. i sold this stock at 17. i'm looking at it close to 30. i knew it was going to work. i just didn't have the guts to hold on. that's a lesson. >> that does it for us. see you on "fast money" at 5:00. "the exchange" begins right now. >> thank you, melissa. hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. here's what is ahead. two meetings of high importance are happening in washington over the next 24 hours. first, major bank ceos starting today. the fate of first republic front and center. then, of course, there is the most complicated and high-stakes fed rate decision in recent history. hike, pause, or pivot. what takes

>> by far. >> because you've let lehman go under, the shock in the financial world that morgan stanleyoldman sachs will go under and now you've got panic. >> the american people can remain confident with the soundness and resilience of our financial system. >> nobody understood what was happening. they couldn't believe that these grand institutions were abou t to come undone. and they were waking up in the morning and finding out it was worse today than it was the day before. >> it's the latest crisis to rock the financial markets, insurance giant aig teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. this is a colossal firm. if it fails, the ripples would travel far and wide throughout the global economy. >> all of a sudden, who would have dreamt this other bombshell goes off, which is aig and if you think lehman brothers was complicated to figure out, aig was monumentally bigger. >> aig is this massive insurance company but they also had a division called aig financial products, which would offer something called a credit default swap. >> that's it contract between two people, one of whom is givi

what do you get from the morgan stanley client experience?more than talking, and a personalized plan ♪ to guide you through a changing world. ♪ you'll always remember buying your first car. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. >>> welcome back to "halftime." the ceo of tiktok testifying on capitol hill today, growing criticism from lawmakers and calls to be banned in the united states. julia boorstin has the story. >> reporter: i've been following the story listening to the testimony. tiktok ceo facing intense questioning from both sides of the aisle. he did say that tiktok will be investing more in content moderation. responding to representative concerns about tiktok spreading dangerous content, even causing death. a lot of questions about the privacy of u.s. data and the potential for chinese government manipulation of the u.s. users of tiktok. they currently ha

healthy household balance sheets opens up the potential for the 2023 upside case of 4600 even morgan stanley, a long-time bear lays out the case for the s&p 500 to rally to 4150 if the dollar and rates continue to fall adam parker from triberia not as positive, saying they have yet to sigh a convincing bull case markets in waiting mode. the jobs number on friday, cpi, ppi and the ecb meeting next week of course, we've got a fed decision coming march 22nd it's going to be an epic few weeks. to help break down what's next for the markets amid all of these event catalysts, cnbc market commentator mike santoli joins us on the floor. the question is -- we know powell will be more hawkish than the last press conference. we've gotten stronger data and all his light ents have been out there saying, higher for longer. can the equity market hold up. it's been doing a good job. >> it has been even if we have to raise our sights for how much the fed has to do, it's coming in relatively smaller increments than last year he'll sound hawkish relative to the fed outlook, which is stale. it came from decembe

only from sleep number. ♪ at morgan stanley, we see the world with the wonder of new eyes, ♪ helpingr untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. ♪ because grit and vision working in lockstep ♪ puts you on the path to your full potential. ♪ >> here is a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. credit suisse is losing several senior executives. our sources say the head of the japan equity esteem is leaving. documents seen by bloomberg show the head of equity sales for the region. meta-platforms have started carrying out job cuts earlier this week. and beginning with 1500 employees and human resources. mark zuckerberg want the restructuring could last many years. about 10,000 of current staff are facing the act. up from the prior forecast. they are well ahead of the s&p 500 gains. that is it for daybreak australia. daybreak asia is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ these days, our households depend on the internet more and more. families grow, houses get smarter, and our demands on the internet increase. that's why we just boosted speeds for over 20

morgan stanley has been looking at that company.a weekend of potential shock and mergers. when you think back in 2008, this is when you need to take these things off the table the idea one is enough, you say first republic, everyone else gets safe, i don't think it's safe >> was it scarier last friday or this friday? >> i don't know about that you go back to what peter orzplorszag was going to saying. we need to get into explicit guarantees you can't do it because you don't have the powers. does congress want to get behind this you have $10 billion of fdic and 6 billion exposed and it's not a good picture >> would you say that we tried the let it go method once and -- >> and we're not doing that again. >> and we're afraid. we're even afraid of silicon valley bank? >> i don't think we were afraid of silicon valley bank per se. i think we were afraid if they went, a, everyone else would go. >> regionals >> i think the regionals would go and you also had a concentration of companies, sometimes big companies that had payroll and the mon

morgan stanley. >> yes. stuart: very optimistic on the market aren't they?c, but i would say less bearish and that sounds positive. we'll put a positive spin to this. you have to listen to morgan stanley because they had the number one strategist last year, mike wilson, who correctly called that bear market in 2022 and he says with all of the banking stress and the collapses we're seeing we might be near the end of the bear market. now there's still a ways to go. earnings will disappoint or earnings estimates need to be cut but he recommends right now actually getting and buying into these defensive low beta sectors so i'd imagine oil and defense be in there as well, and he does caution against buying the mega cap tech names like microsoft and apple which has been seen as a safe haven play now, i mean if you look at the stocks on these technology stocks, the only green you're seeing are in these technology names. last week, despite the collapse of silicon valley bank, we had the best week for the nasdaq 100 since november last year, so all of a sudden, these

morgan stanley and barclay's naming it as a top pick and ai play >> that's right, mike.eta shares are up 5% on the thesis that the tech giant could benefit, poised to benefit from genretive ai to improve the user experience and also monetization efforts, saying, quote, our checks suggest meta has big genretive ai initiatives in the works for both organic and advertising side of the business, and likely a chatbot-like service for its messaging apps morgan stanley calling ai a $6 trillion opportunity that will benefit meta and google as the next key enabler to drive more ai spend online. writing, quote, ai-driven improvements to its recommendation engine should drive increased engagement, leading to higher ad impressions. beyond that genretive ai can make content even more content and engaging, further increasing time spent now, all this focus on ai comes as meta slashes prices on its vr headsets, cutting $500 from the cost of its meta quest pro that now costs $1,000. while the quest 2 is $70 less, so for $430. meta's big bet on the metaverse may end up having less near-te

around too, otherwise you're just going to have the handful of bank of america, bank of america, morgan stanley and goldman and none of the other banks will want to do that because they're not diversified enough to have other businesses to help them. i think in this case, you want confidence back in the system. jamie dimon wants investors to invest in jpmorgan as well at the end of the day i think that's what they're looking at. >> jamie dimon getting involved, a fresh effort to shore up the bank people thought the $30 billion capital infusion was supposed to be the effort to shore up the bank what's your take on this >> so my background on wall street comes from the futures market i've seen the price of sugar go to 1 cent. i've seen crude oil go negative. so i am not by nature looking at distressed assets. i do the opposite and look to where i could find confidence. when i look at this situation right now, when i think to myself is that the u.s. treasury made $15 billion in the wake of 2008 with the bank bailouts. we heard this morning the fdic has equity appreciation at $6.54 on new york comm

stop trading with jim in just a moment at's what you get from the morgan stanley client experience.istening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology. you get grit, vision, and the creativity to guide you through a changing world. ♪ in order for small businesses to thrive, to guide you t they need to be smart... efficient... agile... and that's never been more important than it is right now. so for a limited time, comcast business is introducing small business savings. call now to get powerful internet for just $39 a month, with no contract, and a money back guarantee. all on the largest, fastest, reliable network. from the company that powers more businesses than anyone else. call and start saving today. comcast business. powering possibilities. >>> let's get to jim and stop trading. >> we have a lot of companies whose multiples are low and ou of favor mar marathon pet, 4 1/2 times earnings what do you short when you go into a recession refiners the margins will be squeezed margins are expanding. why? because it's not like the others and

haidi: that is the morgan stanley chief u.s. investment officer.ur next guest is looking for growth out of china's reopening story. sharmila whelan from westbourne research joins us from london. great to have you with us. does that mean no soft landing when it comes to the united states? what does it translate to when it comes to fat expectations and do you still see opportunity? >> it is a difficult time. i am seeing no soft landing for the united states or the euro area. at best, another 25 basis points. not because the inflation battle has been won, far from it. inflation would still be running for per site by the end of the year. it is more because of the turmoil we are seeing in the banking sector and to raise interest rates more aggressively when increase unrealized losses on bank treasury holdings and that is something they cannot afford. haidi: where do you see the best investment places them? >> the developed world, i am looking at moving into defensive stocks and government bonds. i am a firm believer inflation is here to stay. if i am ri

and morgan stanley and goldman are kicking in. a group of additional banks are kicking in one billion each. u.s. financial authorities applauded the effort and again, bloomberg has learned that treasury secretary janet yellen have proposed the idea of a group effort on tuesday. this was during a call with officials including fed chair jay powell and the head of the fbi see. -- fbi c. fdic they both agreed the stock would demonstrate confidence in the banging system and we are told that jamie dimon took the lead in getting together other banks. they finalize the deal. quickly to the after hours, new details came out that first republic would be suspending its dividend. we saw shares dropped as much as 18%. earlier in the session, they swung wildly on speculation over details as to the rescue. bloomberg has been reporting that first republic has been exploring strategic options including a possible sale. a sale still very much a possibility. shery: what about silicon valley bank? su: they have not found a buyer yet. when the fbi see

stay with us. ♪ that's what you get from the morgan stanley client experience.alking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology. you get grit, vision, and the creativity to guide you through a changing world. ♪ what does it mean to be ever better? its your customers getting what they ordered when they expect it. discover how ryder ecommerce makes your customer's experience ever better. if your business kept on employees through the pandemic, getrefunds.com can see if it may qualify for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee. all it takes is eight minutes to get started. then work with professionals to assist your business with its forms and submit the application. go to getrefunds.com to learn more. >> we have a self-induced crisis by responsible>> when you have , it can only end in one of two ways, one is a collapse. what people do not seem to focus on is the u.s. will be taken on liabilities. everybody seems to have forgotten we still have an ongoing debate in the united states which is unresolved, the debt ceiling. everyb

that's what you get from the morgan stanley client experience.t listening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology. you get grit, vision, and the creativity to guide you through a changing world. ♪ >> u.s. prosecutors have charged doug quan with fraud after his arrest a few hours ago in montenegro. he helped create the terror ust stablecoin which collapsed last may, truly a $40 billion cryptocurrency implosion. we are tracking all of this. it has been quiet the past to get to this point. >> that is right. the whereabouts have been at for several months now. he has been tipped off and places including singapore, serbia, dubai for instance. now he has been arrested in montenegro and charged with eight counts including securities fraud, commodity fraud, wire fraud, conspiracy. this is a month after he was sued by the sec. plus in addition to that, he is facing an arrest warrant and south korea on securities law violations. a lot to work out included what sparked the collapse of the terry ust stablecoin w

i think that's how morgan stanley referred to the bank >> banks trade in an etf, because we created aorld where we tdecided, forget about individual banks, let's do etf i hate that stuff, but boy, the money was so good. the promoters who did those things i know they couldn't resist, but the fact is, if you think all banks are created equal, take a look at some of the research this morning, say, from morgan stanley. the banks have all dicfferent portfolios, but the vast majority don't have the commercial real estate risk that i was worried about. that's s.o. green, boston properties >> we talked about it yesterday. >> yeah. so, i don't mind that. but look, schwab needs to say something. td needs to say something because there is a big block of stock for sale we would love to know whether -- what the policies are -- like, for instance, let's say jpmorgan, like jamie dimon i don't think he would even touch lending against securities that are not public. i think he would say, that's crypto in my world >> it's funny, because the title of denny's record today is, "jamie's hurricane." >> jay

morgan stanley says it's too early to buy stocks.ment officer jeffrey sherman is with us yields are falling as investors continue to fly to safety, bidding up government bonds. we have details on why credit suisse bondholders are absolutely outraged this morning. >>> later, former s.e.c. chairman jay clayton penning an op-ed with

chief european economist for morgan stanley. >>> u.s. secretary of state blinken has spoken with russian counterpart sergei lavrov for the first time since the war began a year ago they spoke on the sidelines of the g20 summit in india > our colleague tambir joins us with more. >> reporter: good morning, julianna thank you very much for that i have a special guest with me here as we wrapped up the proceedings of the g20 ministers meeting. i have with me the high representative of the foreign affairs and vice president of the european commission josep borrell. thank you for joining us i want to start with your reaction on secretary blinken meeting with sergei lavrov >> they talked >> do you think this was better than the bali summit where minister lavrov stormed out of the meeting in. >> he was not very nice. he came, he spoke, he left >> from that pecurspective, thee is improvement >> it was communication which was much better. he remained. he stands in the room to listen. >> what was your take from the g20 foreign ministers meeting? >>

. ♪ at morgan stanley, we may seem like a contradiction...and we are. ♪ ♪ at 87 years old, we still seeing you discover untapped possibilities ♪ and relentlessly working with you to make them real. ♪ partnering to unlock new ideas ♪ to create new legacies ♪ to research, innovate, collaborate, ♪ and build the way to transform a company industry economy, generation. ♪ because grit and vision working in lockstep puts you on the path to your full potential. ♪ >> good evening, everyone. i'm alisyn camerota. welcome to cnn tonight. we are following breaking news about the classified documents found in mar-a-lago. sources tell cnn a federal judge believes donald trump may have used his own defense attorney to commit a crime. that means attorney-client privilege would not apply, and th

dan skelly of morgan's -- of morgan stanley.ou start planning recovery to a recession we have not had get, i hear a lot of that. lisa a: that has been the theme until it was not anymore. that is what people are starting to rethink it which is now. tom: that is the question of the week. how do you play defense here? it is so defense that you have to spell it like the canadians and british do. it is so simple. that's what everyone is thinking this week. jonathan: i do not know how you do that. the pushback is anyone. they were financial institutions that were rate and investment height which should not have been based on their performance. credit suisse right is negative almost 9%. 1.80 five swiss. that name is breaking down still. tom: the chart is text but as of 20 minutes ago. jonathan: in the next hour, anastasio amoroso of next capital. lisa m: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. with the first word, i am lisa mateo. turkey is nearing ratification of fillon secession into nato. -- of finland secession into

. ♪ at morgan stanley, we see the world with the wonder of new eyes, ♪ helping you discover untappedlities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. ♪ because grit and vision working in lockstep ♪ puts you on the path to your full potential. ♪ any questions, chris? all good, thanks maura! there you go, one new inhaler! nice did you get my refill too? maybe healthier is auto refills and delivery made easy. you're a lifesaver. have a nice day. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the three stock stories of the morning mongodb falling despite the top and bottom line beat long-term growth opportunities may be impacted until economic conditions normalize shares down 11%. eli lilly will halt the alzheimer's streetreatments the shutdown is a serious blow for efforts to treat alzheimer's in people in the early stages of the deisease shares of sill van v-- silicon valley bank are sinking. shares are down 27% this morning. >>> let's check on the other headlines with frances rivera in new york with the latest >> frank, good morning senate minority leader mictch mcconnel

that's competition for tesla. >> morgan stanley it says in the future, volkswagen might be the winneresla in terms of sales. stuart: tesla is down a little today, thank you, we will see you later. coming up, minnesota's lieutenant governor allowing children to receive gender transition treatment is what it means to be a good parent. >> when our children tell us who they are, it is our job as grown-ups to listen and to believe them. that's what it means to be a good parent. stuart: listen and believe. elon musk responded forcefully to that. we will tell you what he said. kevin o'leary on the banking crisis, is it contained or what's? is on the show. dan crenshaw going after mexico as president again. roll it. >> this president is out of control. if you weren't sure if he was bought off, you could be pretty certain now. stuart: strong stuff, how do we find the cartels? leslie deals with that next. ♪ all the markets, we've still got red ink especially for the dow industrial down 200 points. minor losses for the s&p, minor losses for the nasdaq. after two years of record-breaking illegal

stuart: morgan stanley, that is not good. are you bottom fishing with big banks? >> it should be a component to your portfolio 100%. i think jpmorgan has the best balance sheet, jamie dimon is the best banking manager in the country, i think they have the best risk management. lauren: he's the one who organized it for first republic. democrats don't like big banks to get bigger. stuart: they don't have much choice. they get bigger. >> that's not what we want to see. i don't think that is what we need to do. we have to incentivize people to borrow from smaller banks. stuart: thanks for being with us. employees that were laid off at google, one to the company to pay for their approved medical time off. how is google responding? lauren: this goes back to january when they laid off 2000 employees, hundreds of them were out on maternity leave, medical leave, you name it. they say their time off was preapproved before the layoffs and should be fully honored. google has responded. this is alphabet, huge company, 126,000 workers, 465 tech companies laid off so far this ye