charge for shows the mpc likely...ojection increases from the 2% target to the second quarter this year to around 2.5% by the turn of the year. before falling back to 1.9% in two years' time and toi.6% back to 1.9% in two years' time and to1.6% in back to 1.9% in two years' time and to 1.6% in three years. this projection reflects our view that we are making very good progress in returning inflation to the 2% target, that the restrictive monetary policy is stance is working. the projections suggest that inflation could fall below the inflation target towards the end of the forecast period. let me turn to monetary policy. but the progress we have made, to make sure that inflation stays around the 2% target, inflation will never be too high or too low, it is likely that we will need to cut bank rates over the coming quarters. and make monetary policy somewhat less restrictive over the forecast period. policy more so than currently priced into market rights. this will be consistent in ensuring that inflation does not fall

. >> there's no problem with, you know, the mtc itself mpc the elections commission, federal elections commission, they lifted this years ago and they took a fast. they said there's no problem here tim scott objective is to keep dropped off the campaign trail as all they tried to do, keep him off the campaign trail. here's the new york times. it just came out with so while ago where we're leaving in every state and every the five q stakes relieving very substantially. i might add. >> so it's all believers said day for the country and said from new york, i mean new york, that a judge is highly conflicted at a level that nobody has seen before for can possibly think of it. and you should go out and check it out but we have a corrupt and we have a judge is highly i can and he's keeping me from campaigning. hizon appointed new york judge, appointed you know appointed him but read politicians he's appointed is a corrupt judge and is conflicted. the judge and he only let us go out and campaign and get rid of this every single legal atlas even cnn even msdnc, the same there's no case here tha

if we get a debit sense in terms of the rhetoric from andrew bailey and team and a shift on the mpc, that could impact the pound. we watched the open at 8:00 a.m. u.k. time. brent close to 84, a little bit of strength coming through for oil. iron ore in focus as well. one of the major cities, population in china getting the developments curbs edit restrictions around property purchases leading to expectations that could happen across the country and may be more demand for iron ore. we will check in on u.k. miners as well. ten year, 450. the 42 billion dollars auction was not well received by markets. avril hong standing by in singapore. avril: we are looking at china, japan on a day when asian stock benchmarks are mostly well into negative territory. csi 300 the standout performer, and this again we are seeing is following on from trade numbers out of the asian giant. exports return to growth that was better-than-expected, but the import numbers are also worth highlighting, because this gives us a sense that may be demand is coming back in china as the gain was more than markets had

i think mpc members, they did vote for a cut. think i'm right in saying that the last time this happened, there were also two who voted for a cut. it's worth saying that uk inflation is now lower than us inflation. inflation went down by more than was expected in the last announcement. are we relying too much on the us or is this simply out of the control of people on our island ? our island? >> you'll know, tom, because i know you follow these economic issues very closely. both of you do. we often talk about economics on your show? don't we? but you'll know that i've been saying for months and months and months that interest rates should be cut. we've already seen the swiss cut interest rates ahead of the americans . this morning we saw americans. this morning we saw the swedes, the swedish central bank, cut interest rates before the americans. it's almost as if the americans. it's almost as if the monetary policy committee is too timid to do anything until it gets permission from our american cousins. i say it gets permission f

attached to the bomb like a backpack is what they call the unified planning and correction module, or the mpcnas module on it, which allows the russians to program the bomb to hit targets that the pilots themselves cannot see. wings at the back help stabilize the bomb, while flip-out wings at the front allow it to glide kilometers ahead to hit its target and detonate. this means that russian pilots do not need to fly into ukraine during a bombing raid, where they could be shot down, but just in case they they still release the heat trap. due to the fact that these bombs contain a lot of explosives, they cause enormous damage, they can easily destroy multi-story buildings and fortified bunkers. similar bombs were used in large quantities in the final days of the battle for avdievka, which was eventually captured by russian troops. guided bombs gave the russians the ability to use ammunition, which they had in huge quantities. we are talking about fabs 500 and fabs 1500, huge ones. border, the department reports today state border service. the lucky one was a thirty- one-year-old resident of th

do you think that's a fair characterisation of the mpc , the former governor of the mpc, the former governorive diversity had added to instability led to higher inflation than would otherwise be the case, and also do you think the obr should be stronger or weaker than it currently is? specifically, should elected politicians take more notice or less notice of obr forecasts , less notice of obr forecasts, which have often been rather, to be fair, inaccurate ? be fair, inaccurate? >> well, i think that we should respect independent economic institutions , and one of the institutions, and one of the reasons why we are in the mess that we are in today is because of the decisions of the conservatives. when liz truss was prime minister and kwasi kwarteng was chancellor, it wasn't just the unfunded tax cuts that they promised, but it was also the undermining of the economic institutions that had previously made britain a safe and secure place to invest . so and secure place to invest. so sacking the respected permanent secretary of the treasury , tom secretary of the treasury, tom scholar, refusing

inflation and all money trickles up, we live in a trickle-up economy, we get money we are not used to mpc, p propensity to consume. if they give you a 2000 stimulus check, you are going to spend it. that is how people who get stimulus checks spend all money and record high credit card debt. it is psychology, they united states use it and abuse people who have gotten this money. they use people they gave this money to, played them for suckers and now everyone is suffering. >> ainsley: what do you expect tomorrow when donald trump is in -- he went to harlem for the bodega thing and now bronx. >> it is going to be beautiful, unless they sabotage it. ultimately, beautiful. i think the world is in for an awakening, there is a cl clamoring, oud of democrat and republican, who may have solutions and really care, professional politicians talk the talk, they don't walk the walk. >> brian: president talked about african americans -- >> i was in atlanta, in the hotel with karine jean-pierre and others and i had a great candid conversation with one guy, used to be regular contributor on our network,

. >> it's interesting, the history of the mpc. most of the cutting cycles have actually been prompted by some sort of shock or other rather than being one of the natural cyclical, we reach the top and go down. i would just caution, there's not a lot of security out there. lizzy: markets pricing a 62% chance of a june cut. that entry bailey managed to nail look calm's this time? >> he did well. he didn't disrupt the markets. there is no huge volatility around it. he's cap the pound in a tight range. equity markets took it well. gilts absorbed it without too much action. overall, giving himself, -- a pat on the back. that was a good result. from here, you can see the incentive for the bank of england is really to step into a path that mirrors the european central bank. with the fed in a situation where they probably can't do anything until the fourth quarter, the pressure on europe and u.k. is immediate. both of them would probably like to move ahead. if they move in tandem or very close together, from a markets point of view, that'

we know it is a split mpc but that is more than what andrew bailey says.e care about the individual members than the man himself. jonathan: looking for the breakdown of the votes in about 20 minutes or so. on surveillance this morning, president biden sending a warning to israel that he will delayed more weapons of israel continues with the ground invasion of roff up. the comments commit to the u.s. already paused a shipment of about 3500 bombs. the warning was pretty clear and the president is clear about what could take place if they go into rough a, i'm not supplying the weapons. dani: he said these weapons avenues previously to kill civilians and one of the interesting things about this is that originally, biden had hoped this would be under wraps and he would negotiate with the israelis and the public wouldn't know about it. biden has given few media interviews lately which she has gotten criticism about. the fact that he is not doing these negotiations behind closed doors but he is using one of his few interviews to talk about it and send a message.

there is another cpi report, however, of course, before the next rate meeting or mpc meeting by the bank of england. that's anticipated on june 19th. that will be something to look out for. of course, rates still at the 5.25% figure. caroo carolin. >> jeremy hunt said the impact of inflation is still being felt. >> i hope it's good news. it's returned to much more normal levels, and the bang of england who decides these things independently is confident that it's reached its target rate and it will stay there, they can bring doubt interest rates. that will be good news for mortgage holders, but families whether be feeling bruised even the last couple of years. even though inflation is going down, prices are up from what they were a few years ago. predicting our economy will grow over the next six years faster than france, germany, italy, or japan. >>> let's get a whole lot more on this. thank you so much for taking the time this morning to dissect the numbers with us. you had a good look at them. is june completely off the table? >> hi, thank you for having me on the show. yes, as you ju

the next mpc meeting in july. the next mpc meeting afterjune is august.rst interest rate cut won't be before august . cut won't be before august. >> okay, good to know the prime minister when he took charge following on from liz truss, was greeted with inflation at 11. it is now, as you say, 2.3. that's the lowest since july 2021. understandable he is rather pleased this morning. here he is with his thoughts on the latest figures, hard work and resilience . resilience. >> today we reached a major milestone and inflation is back to normal. and that is an important moment for our country. for the economy and shows that our plan is working now . whilst i know people are now. whilst i know people are only just starting to feel the benefits and there is more work to do, i hope this gives people confidence that if we stick to the plan, there are brighter days ahead. >> can you claim any credit for it or is it all down to the bank of england? yeah >> when i came into this job, i made it a priority to halve inflation. we've delivered on that. and now as i said, i

makes sense, because by then you may have had some cuts in interest rates, maybe two of those from the mpc, the monetary policy committee. by then, inflation is down to well under or around 2. net migration falls . patrick. illegal migration may start to tick down. even you might have tax cuts announced by the chancellor in a fiscal moment in september. all those levers the pm has chosen not to pull. instead he has gone from an election that no one was expecting in the pouring rain . expecting in the pouring rain. and the campaigning starts tomorrow. tory mps are cross. at least one letter has gone in, or a letter of no confidence in the prime minister. tonight they tell me there is a chance they can depose the prime minister as leader of the party before next thursday, when parliament is dissolved. i think the jury is out on that. i think the chance of that happening is slim, very slim. but that gives you an indication of the fury of a lot of tory mps tonight. the ones speaking to me just don't understand why he has gone for an election now when he didn't have to. why not wait six months

who've been very generous because you're forgetting that you might have two interest rate cuts by the mpcefore any november election. >> there's a september possibility of a budget. you've got falling net migration, net migration by september. you've got, other, other, other things ticking up for the economy. why not wait and use time as your friend allows the opposition to mobilise? >> you know, he's caught labour by surprise here and equally reform. i know tom'sjust reform. i know tom's just speaking to nigel farage, you know. is he standing? what's he doing? is it going to be uk politics or us reform. haven't got their candidates list together in fact recently they've had to get rid of a load labour haven't got a manifesto. no longer can keir starmer respond to every question you or i ask. oh we'll wait for the manifesto. what's in it? i actually think that degree of jeopardy that is created with his speech a week on monday ago and saying, you know, stick with me because i'm safer than starmer isn't a bad pledge. if you listen to the grey hairs in the tory party, iain duncan smith, dav

. >> do you think that's a fair characterisation of the mpc?overnor saying that that lack of cognitive diversity has added to instability led to higher inflation than would otherwise be the case? and also, do you think the obr should be stronger or weaker than it currently is ? specifically, currently is? specifically, should elected politicians take more notice or less notice of obr forecasts, which have often been rather, to be fair , been rather, to be fair, inaccurate ? inaccurate? >> well, i think that we should respect independent economic institutions, and one of the reasons why we are in the mess that we are in today is because of the decisions of the conservatives. when liz truss was prime minister and kwasi kwarteng was chancellor, it wasn't just the unfunded tax cuts that they promised, but it was also the undermining of the economic institutions that had previously made britain a safe and secure place to invest. so sacking the respected permanent secretary of the treasury, tom scholar, refusing to let the obr do a forecast even thou

rather than wait to see, maybe by by september, when there's been two cuts in interest rates by the mpc, the monetary policy committee, when net migration may have come to down 2019 levels, when illegal migration may also be being dealt with because of the rwanda plan starts to work, when the economy starts to work, when the economy starts to work, when the economy starts to grow and inflation is to down 2. those five areas, it looked like the government was heading towards three rishi sunak an election in november. so people would say don't risk it. look what's happened so far. and also don't forget a budget, possibly in september to cut taxes instead in the rain, in the pouring rain in the downing street . he's gone for an early street. he's gone for an early election in july that no one saw coming. tory mps. well, the ones i'm speaking to, horace speak, who are speaking to me are cross , one said this is madness and they don't understand why it happened. they don't understand why it happened . we're trying to find happened. we're trying to find out whether the pm will be speaking to

makes sense, because by then you may have had some cuts in interest rates, maybe two of those from the mpcthe monetary policy committee. by then, inflation is down to well under or around 2. net migration falls . patrick. illegal migration may start to tick down. even you might have tax cuts announced by the chancellor in a fiscal moment in september. all those levers the pm has chosen not to pull. instead he has gone from an election that no one was expecting in the pouring rain . expecting in the pouring rain. and the campaigning starts tomorrow. tory mps are cross. at least one letter has gone in, or a letter of no confidence in the prime minister. tonight they tell me there is a chance they can depose the prime minister as leader of the party before next thursday, when parliament is dissolved. i think the jury is out on that. i think the chance of that happening is slim, very slim. but that gives you an indication of the fury of a lot of tory mps tonight. the ones speaking to me just don't understand why he has gone for an election now when he didn't have to. why not wait six months an

to cut interest rates when the monetary policy committee next meets on the 20th of june, there's no mpcng in july. they only meet eight months a year. they missed some months out . so the first some months out. so the first time interest rates could possibly go down and the numbers will keep needing to get more benign between now and then is august. and we originally thought we'd see a rate cut in march, april, may, june. but inflation remained, you know, the opposite of transitory . like the opposite of transitory. like the opposite of transitory. like the bank of england said, it's remained stubbornly high. so i think it's partly because it now looks as if we're probably only going to get one interest rate cut, if any inflation can go up over the summer before an autumn election. and also downing street must be thinking maybe things could go even worse over the summer. an influx of small boats over the summer. that's usually what happens in the summer months. maybe inflation could start turning up again , as could start turning up again, as it has in america and the uk and america. th

there's no mpc meeting in july, by the way. august is the first interest rate cut.now, not you've only really got time for one interest rate cut then before an election in the autumn, possibly early to when the tories were hoping for three. so rishi sunak seems to have thought, well, lots could go wrong over the summer. we could have an influx of small boat migrants. of course, in the better weather there could be worse economic news. inflation could even start ticking upward. that's certainly what money markets in the us think is going to happen over the summer. so if there is no going to be no sort of great economic, improvement with lots of rate cuts and possibility of a lower tax rate with an autumn budget, then the tories are thinking we might as well just go now, because things probably aren't going to get better and they could get worse . better and they could get worse. >> it's a pessimistic view, liam. where's the optimism , liam. where's the optimism, well, here's i've got some numbers are coming out. just came out today, tom, which we'll go to now, which

. >> do you think that's a fair characterisation of the mpc, the former governor saying that that lackty had added to instability led to higher inflation than would otherwise be the case, and also , otherwise be the case, and also, so do you think the obr should be stronger or weaker than it currently is? specifically should elected politicians take more notice or less notice of obr forecasts , which have often obr forecasts, which have often been rather, to be fair, inaccurate ? inaccurate? >> well, i think that we should respect independent economic institutions and one of the reasons why we are in the mess that we are in today is because of the decisions of the conservatives. when liz truss was prime minister and kwasi kwarteng was chancellor, it wasn't just the unfunded tax cuts that they promised, but it was also the undermining of the economic institutions that had previously made britain a safe and secure place to invest . so and secure place to invest. so sacking the respected permanent secretary of the treasury , tom secretary of the treasury, tom scholar, refusing to let the

prices and so costs, pushing up prices and so on, so on balance, that makes it less likely that the mpcnetary policy committee of the bank of england is going to lower rates next month. not impossible, but now slightly less likely . less likely. >> very interesting news. so on the face of it, good news for workers, but it could have a negative impact if you're hoping for those interest rates to come down. liam, with this showdown , down. liam, with this showdown, with this showdown between keir starmer and the unions , the starmer and the unions, the unions accusing the labour party of essentially watering down their workers rights pledge, what's the truth here? >> well, look, trade union leaders tuc , unite and so on. leaders tuc, unite and so on. big trade unions, of course , big trade unions, of course, they pay money to the labour party regularly . a lot of labour party regularly. a lot of labour mps to this day are still sponsored by trade unions. they're having a big powwow at labour's national headquarters in south london this lunchtime. as we speak, you've got keir starmer there

upbeat words from andrew bailey, the governor of the bank of england at the press conference after the mpcced its decision at noon that decision was, as you say, martin, to hold interest rates for the sixth meeting in a row. they've been at 5.25. the base rate of , of which all mortgage rate of, of which all mortgage rates and other lending rates in the economy are based. that's where the clue is in the name. it's called the base rate. it's been at 5.25% since august last yeah been at 5.25% since august last year. the bank of england has felt it hasn't been able to lower interest rates because inflation has been high. but inflation has been high. but inflation now is at 3.2. that was the last figure in march. we get the april number in a couple of weeks time. it will be nearer the bank's 2% inflation target. so there will be more scope to cut rates in the future. and governor andrew bailey said that while today's decision was seven two, so seven of the economists voted to hold rates, only two of the of the nine voted to cut. we need a majority, at least 5 to 4 to get a cut . andrew bailey

if the mpc agree that the bank of england, then you have net migration falling to around level of 2019flights taking off. we've got a pint of beer. bet on that, haven't we, martin? with the migrant flights and the economy ticking up. so all those five things were looking towards an autumn election. i was told november the 21st, november november the 21st, november november the 21st, november november the 14th that would allow the government to go ahead and have this, the tories to have a fundraising party conference where when they expect to then call elections straight after instead, mr sunak's going early now, why do that? i think it's a big risk. he's 25 points behind in the polls , it's the biggest risk of polls, it's the biggest risk of his life if he goes for it, because had he waited and gone long, he wouldn't be blamed for any defeat. if he goes early and the government and the tories are defeated, as the polls suggest, he will be personally blamed for that defeat. and that's why it's a surprise. but looking at it, they may think that the promise of the economy getting better,

but i think those mortgage rates after today when we get some warm words from the mpc saying, look, no mortgage rates. for many people buying and selling homes, this is a nightmare because they don't want to be paying because they don't want to be paying higher interest rates than they otherwise would. if they think an interest rate cut is coming down the line. very difficult stuff to get your head around. but look , this is what around. but look, this is what makes the world go round. this is this is money. this is real people's finances. and we need to take time to explain it. yeah, well, thank you for explaining it to us, liam halligan. >> thank you very much indeed. >> thank you very much indeed. >> all right, let's get a check on the weather for you this morning with alex. >> that warm feeling inside from boxt boilers, sponsors of weather on gb news. >> this morning. here's your latest gb news weather update brought to you by the met office. there is a bit of mist and fog around first thing this morning, but otherwise it's going to be a fine day for many of us away from the far no