mr. bullard: we are close to neutral today.i look at inflation expectations from the tips market, it looks like they are about at 2% on a personal consumption expenditures inflation basis, or somewhat below 2% even, over the next five years or 10 years. as of right now, the market doesn't really think we will hit our inflation target on our preferred measure over that kind of time horizon. so that suggests to me that we have got about the right level of rates today, and then we should react to incoming data, see if it surprises to the upside or downside. we haven't had a long run during 2017 and 2018, a pretty good news on the u.s. economy. it may not always be that way. one day we may get some bad news and have to adjust the other way. i think we have to be prepared that the news isn't always going to be good. shery: and the good news seems to have helped fomc members to become a bit more in line when it comes to their dots expectations. this year, the consensus seems to be about four rate hikes this year. the problem is, what

jim bullard is in the pause camp. let's listen to mr.first. >> i think we will be able to follow a gradually increasing path without actually moving into stricter territory. what the practical implications of that are, are we restrictive or not? that is a function of optimism. >> he said that he thinks the economy is in a good spot. bullard, there is the idea that maybe he is trying to push his own doctrine. he is saying that the currently held thought with regard to interest-rate rises still generally hold and he doesn't think that they actually have room to rise, at least not much more. [inaudible] where do you go with both of those guys coming out on different sides of the spectrum? i'm not so sure. pop into the bloomberg terminal. follow me into the g tv library. i can show you where we are in terms of the federal funds target rate. hovering around 2.25%. the white line is the neutral rate. this is not the actual neutral rate. it does move around. this is the natural rate of interest here. sensibly, we are 25 basis points away from t