mr. draghi was praised as a master of guidance. he's given us some guidance once again. he has announced the very gentlest of exits from the taperer, perhaps the gentlest of recalibrations of asset purchases. yet many would say he's not yet off the hook and the question is whether the taper which is not a taper may provoke tantrums or other adverse consequences in the future deutsche bank has said the great unwind could trigger the next crisis ladies and gentlemen, here's our question what do you think is most likely to trigger the next crisis could it be the great unwind, the phasing out of accommodative monetary policy, whether you think it's too short, too long, too gentle number two, high levels of global imbalances. number three, price correction, four, high corporate debt. five, chinese slowdowns. six, protectionist measures. seven, the black swan. please vote now. ♪ all right. some people say the germans don't have a sense of humor. i think they do. let's get francesco caselli in here, portfolio manager from boehner capital. how competitive is the european banking

mr. draghi in blue with euro sclerosis and the challenges of many countries. and mr.oking at ages inflation. and it is really fascinating to think what you see in this panel. to me, it borders on historic. >> yes. there was a very important question, when the panel got guidanceout is this about communication never put pressure on the markets? the answer is probably not. we are just in exceptional circumstances. remember, right now, we are in the great unwind. want to guideo the market, otherwise, you are exposed to the taper tantrum we had. it is communicating, and it is not easy. francine: you spread the market once, twice, it is rare to do it a third time. >> these for central bankers are on a path towards moving on tightening, but certainly into the end of accommodation. they are beginning to wind back super accommodation. the one that struck me was mark carney. said if ago, greenspan you think you understand me, you're wrong. francine: let's go back to frankfurt and mario draghi. gov. draghi: trying to do our best. any initiative that is being proposed is accepted

mr. draghi have optimism on economic growth in europe? erik: yeah, he has had for a while. revised the forecast. i think today gave a good indication that he is still optimistic, and rightly so. this andoked at all of the back-and-forth. it is really the linkage of what the bank of england and ecb is doing, and of course the fed, about the optimism out there. that was really in the deadly speech yesterday. francine: it certainly was, but if you look at the world economy, the biggest central-bank hiccup could come in communications. the only unwinding qe too quickly, but there are a lot of changes at the top. you had powell coming in, you had the ecb president's term coming to an end. what is the biggest risk in central-bank policy? know. we don't quite he is the first non-economist we have had for a long time. maybe that is not a problem, but he might not have his own framework to think about the next crisis when it happens. then you have the replacement of stanley fischer and dudle y. we are in a place where it is difficult to know what to do. it is not like they are playi

mr. draghi -- listening to his speech, it's a mix of certainties. -- and nervousness.laughter] >> that's the definition of guidance. >> which is perfect guidance. >> what does it mean? you speak about our reaction, the way we are reacting in risk policy. what does it mean? -- be careful. you shouldn't think money will continue forever. you buy access at a too high price. be careful. mark: brexit show live from europeans headquarters in london. i'm mark barton. let's get around about this week's brexit -- brexit stories. here's sebastian salek. sebastian: the pound dipping after the sunday times reporting that the parliament agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in ukip prime minister theresa may. to maintaingling her power, after resignation of two cabinets. as the eu raises the prospect, brexit talks failing to reach a breakthrough -- breakthrough. will get aief brexit breakthrough by december, according to european business leaders. said it was untrue that they had said that. germany's angela merkel is said to be wary of pushing theresa may to harder brexit talks.

mr. draghi, both from supervisors macro authorities actively taking measures to counterthem. that was nick guardide thank you very much for joining us >>> roughly one hour into the trading session, let's see how things are opening up. a bit of a mixed picture behind me yet again, u.s. stocks have made new highs. nikkei is at the highest level since 1992 will that continue into the european session it doesn't appear so the open is treading around the flat line here just above that zero percent mark. obviously, we did have some weaker earnings data that came out a little earlier we'll get into that. but let's look at individual country and see how things are doing there. ftse 100, struggling a little bit relative to its european counterparts around the that zero percent mark. the xetra dax up 3%. really we just heard from draghi nothing really on the monetary policy front, but we saw a big drop in euro that might be helping some of the german indices today. ftse up almost 2%. another strong date for the periphery sector let's have a look at how individual sectors are doing this

mr. draghi saying forward guidance was a success >> yes, he was saying forward guidance was a success and also adding that there's no reason to discard it given that it was so much of a success. but i'm now joined by a very special guest, who is the former president of the ecb, jean-claude tricher. i will discuss all sorts of things with him. thank you very much for joining us let's start with a question on the world economy. looking at some parameters, the world economy looks more vulnerable than in 2018. >> i was mentioning the fact that despite the fact that growth is active, i wouldn't say buoyant, but satisfactory, we have some indicators on leverage, global leverage that are not that reassuring. in particular, when you compute the debt outstanding, public and private over the consolidated gdp of the planet, we are now at a level which is higher than immediately before the financial crisis there is no time for complacency. that's the message >> let's look at asset prices. over many markets in the industrialized world, asset prices are close to record highs. are you concerned about as

mr. draghi is doing and maybe we will look at the euro as well.st out on united states systems. ♪ tom: good morning everyone. bloomberg surveillance. i think we're back with our guest host, jens nordvig, he is with you in new york. we are talking about brings it, one of the main things -- brexit , one of the main things we're looking out for. i don't know whether you are looking at fx calls, the success of brings it, whether it's through the currencies or the boe does next. tom: it's important to look at polarities. let's go to europe first. ring up a chart. stronger euro. deviations.ard does europe want stronger euro? a big risk was priced into the euro. we have the cure -- the qa people worry about. we have the french election that took us down another leg and then we had the dollar affect from trump coming in. all of those things came together in the first quarter and they have been unwinding with micron winning the election -- with macron winning the election. tom: is it range bound or are you optimistic on the euro? jens: i've been constructi

mr. draghi has been describing is a creature of the bond is bank and not the ecb.e end of era, who has the most to lose? i was told she was the one that brought people together. when nikolai sarkozy would not want to sign something she would convince them and they would sign together. choose a political figure that is dominant. for the rest of the world more so than germany, almost. to be i would say macron the most obvious winner. he is charismatic, a thoughtful individual, statesman-like in a way. he has been able to do extraordinary things in terms of getting stuff done in france. francine: does he not need angela merkel? the franco-german access, he can't go it alone. james: the question is who fills the vacuum? he is one individual who has statesman-like characteristics has arough a plebiscite real confirmation of authority and strategies and authorities people believe to be philosophically interesting and credible for the decade ahead. francine: what does it mean for the markets? james: the most important issue is we should not expect global growth to evapora

mr. draghi or can we say it is separate from ecb action?e central that is what powering the monetary policy side of the economy which continues to be accommodative. italy'slso has fiscal right now -- fiscal ease right now. you've got those instruments working great in europe. you don't have a capital markets union. you don't have a digital single market. we're of scott a lot of stuff to do in order to maintain this momentum through 2019. tom: thank you so much. challenge to catalyze stronger and inclusive growth. catherine mann from paris. we will continue with richard clarida. don't forget bloomberg daybreak on radio. you kept them in your car. bloomberg daybreak: europe coast-to-coast. new york, boston, san francisco and washington. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm taylor riggs. there's a report that wells fargo overcharged companies on some foreign exchange deals. the bank reviewed about 300 currency free agreements and found only 35 companies were charged crisis offered in the document. wells fargo has reorganize

mr. mario draghi.as a question. >> i wanted to ask the big vacancy at the ecb coming up. we had a french president of the ecb and an italian president at the ecb. is it time for a german president of the ecb? first of all, i would say, it is not a decision to take necessarily. -- it is adate of mandate that goes up to october 2019. so he has time. he is there. he will continue to exert his own presidency and leadership over a long period of time. i would not embark on premature discussion. it is a decision of the heads of state and government. and experience has demonstrated that, i think, i should not say that for me, but a widely in-depth decision of the ecb. i have full confidence. but i will not engage in the conversation on the next president. francine: i want to ask you about bitcoin. what is bitcoin? , i have to say, i don't consider at all that they are currencies. any of they have not characteristics of the currencies that are essential, which is to keep its values on the business of sustained

. >> you can see her on the stage with mario draghi from the ecb, mark carney from the bank of england, along with mra from the bank of japan dr draghi said regulation are what the central bankers called macroregulation not monetary policy should address the asset prices also, yellen earlier had criticized some fed merngzmbers citing the failure to explain communication decisions, but she later also defended the overall strategy saying rate forecasts provide a benefit to the markets and to the public. >> jeremy is head of investment strategy chief u.s. equity strategist for ubs wealth management americas and tom, he is portfolio manager for fpa new income fund. i'll start because one of your concerns, jeremy, is that there could be something in the rate side of things that could derail some of this, but at this point people talk about, well, the market is getting tired, and there's been pullbacks you mentioned there's been a pullback, then it's escaped you. you haven't seen it, right >> exactly one thing that's been very strange about this year is the biggest peak to trough decline we've seen in the