mr. fillon, center-right candidate, said fighting terror is top priority for the next president. mr.elenchon, the leader of the far-left has not canceled his campaign events. he said we should not interrupt the democratic process. the polls won't incorporate the latest developments. the latest poll has macron in the lead at 24%. markets have improved over the course of the week and haven't reacted much over the last 12 hours. >> yoeuro at a 3 1/2 week high. i know you don't have the freshest polls, but how has this latest incident might impact the way people vote this weekend? >> fair question. clearly the minister of the interior just said over the last five minutes or so that this was a french citizen. but over the last couple of years, the terror attacks in july last year and november 2015 in france, we know a large number of those terrorists had come in from belgium. if france had not had its open borders policy, then those attacks would have been harder. doesn't seem like that would have applied to this one, but people who have security issues in their mind will think about it m

mr. fillon. he is going to get what he deserves. have you convinced anyone to vote for francois fillon today? >> i guess i hope. it's a bit tough in this part of paris to convince some people. we try and we hope so. >> he is polling neck and neck who the far left candidate has recently surged in the polls. his campaigners are targeting the same metro stop. fillon supporters are hoping voters will overlook scandals. there is one candidate who is loving the current situation. far left candidate jean-luc melenchon. has seen an incredible surge in opinion polls. just a few weeks ago he was a distant fifth and he could very well make it to the palace. down yesterdays to understand more about the search. -- surge. >> jean-luc melenchon drawing a huge crowd here. of long-standing supporters, new converts and those considering switching to the cause in the wake of his bounce in the polls. >> i have never voted before. only one who i think speaks honestly. he doesn't have my vote yet. in the pollsuation i am starting to reconsider. i hope he

mr. fillon has. last night, i was at his campaign headquarters.ed some voters who they would now vote for, given that their candidate, mr. fillon is not there? >> well, tonight, i will probably not vote at all. in two weeks. >> i am going to vote for macron in two weeks because i don't want le pen to be president. >> i will vote for emmanuel macron. for many reasons. i think marine le pen is elected it will be a catastrophe for france. >> i'm not quite sure who i'm going to vote for yet but i think macron. >> most fillon supporters said they'll vote, but turnout will be absolutely key may 7th. >> wilfred, clearly investors are taking the bet that ma kron will win the election. you see that in the polls. you can go through some of his economic policies which stand in such stark contrast to marine le pen. his vision for france. within the e u. it's still a country with 10% unemployment. a very high unemployment rate. >> you hit it absolutely on the head there. what's interesting about his economic policies are center ground. and possibly you'd say,

mr. fillon. >> rose: is anyone trending? does anyone have any momentum?, this seems to be a good question. this is a moment since one week in favor of meÉlenchon, and youh clearly matters with expectation in france. this is the long trend in. one week momentum. nce yesterday night, the is probably sort of momentum, but not so strong as it could have been expected for mrs. le pen. this attack yesterday was aimed at that. i.s.i.s. votes for le pen. i.s.i.s. and le pen are sort of twins, and the target of daesh yesterday night was clearly to improve the vote for le pen. i think i.s.i.s. failed, in a way, because the momentum is not as big as expected. >> rose: so what do you think the impact will be of this attack? >> well, i would say that madam le pen may win but with several conditions. may win eventually but she needs a very low turnout. i don't know if the attacks yesterday night will lead the french people to stay at home sunday. i don't know. that's an important question, the turnout sunday. the other thing, is for the, if she wants to win in two week

i have interviewed a senator from the left and someone from mr fillon's party and someone from mr fillon'sare nervous though that the coming weekend of the vote, it's when people go away on their holidays and that they won't vote, said mr macron could be a shoo—in. the turnout will have to be loath to prevent mr macron for —— be lowered to prevent mr macron from winning. in the first round we had nearly 80% of the voters turning out, so it would mean that we have half of the voters of the first round, that those people, half of them don't turn out, but that probably won't happen. thank you very much for your analysis. of course, marine le pen will try to turn this into a de fa cto will try to turn this into a de facto referendum on the euro. the most interesting thing is that 40% of those who did vote voted for eurosceptic candidates. there has been a sigh of relief in brussels, but there is something in the vote to worry them. christian, thank you very much. either way, a little we will be talking to doctorjoseph downing, who is an expert on french politics. he will be in the studio to de

mr. fillon against one of the other candidates or alternatively is the head of who is against those two candidatesn certainly given the economic backdrop as you referred to earlier that's been confirmed by this morning's numbers, if we were to see that election risk >> in ththis episode, mexicali bordederartist at the provoviding educucation, mededid programmmming to the community f mexicali. a the medium we cared

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the conservative fillon says he will now support mr macron. s he will now support mr macron. translationzlj conservative fillon says he will now support mr macron. translation: i do not say this with joy in my heart but abstention is not in my genes. especially when an extremist party is approaching power. i can assure you that extremism can only bring hardship and division. there is no other choice but to vote against the far right. in bastille square in paris, some left—wing protesters faced off against the police. these demonstrators were angered by the results of this vote. they, and the rest of the country, will have their final say in two weeks time. james reynolds, bbc news, paris. as we've been hearing, marine le pen says the survival of france is at stake in the election. her front nationale party has only ever reached the second round of a presidential race once before, while emmanuel macron‘s party was set up just 12 months ago. our france correspondent lucy williamson looks now at the changing face of french politics. one country, o

conservative candidate had been at a rally in strasbourg when a protestor emptied the bag of flour at mr fillonts in recent weeks since he was charged over accusations he gave his wife a fake parliamentaryjob for which she was paid hundreds of thousands of euros. the kenyan long—distance runner, jemima sumgong, who won the marathon at last year's rio olympics and the london marathon has tested positive for a banned performance enhancing substance. the long—distance runner tested positive for the banned substance, epo. there's no indication as yet as to what action the authorities will take as a result of the test. norway has unveiled plans to build the world's first ship tunnel beneath a mountain. the mile—long and i20—foot wide tunnel will connect two fjords so that ships of up to 20,000 tons can bypass the perilous stad peninsula. it will cost £250 million and take around six years to build. that is the artist's impression you can see. and now we will take a moment to talk about sport. it's ladies‘ day at aintree race course. mike's there with the sport for us this morning. good morning. good

mr. fillon who says the u.s. action in syria is understandable.he market we saw some knee-jerk reactions. but thatld and oil did has faded out. european equities down a touch but less than 1%. we are not going to get excited about things that are less than a 1% move. we wait to see what the payrolls will deliver later on. when hundred 80 is the consensus call. is theth us -- 180 consensus call. stay with us. surveillance is up next. there is the ftse 100. absolutely flat. ♪ president trump orders accrue missile attack after accusing me using chemical weapons. backed the strikes. we have the very latest. today, investors await the latest u.s. jobs report. will

mr. fillon? certainly a surprise. most likely outcome is that the main candidates, the leading candidates, le pen and macron, are mostly we to make it through, though i would not write off fillon yet. francine: you've -- mark: you have to think about the core base, the undecided voters. dean: that is one worry around mr. macron. still willing to change theirare mind. i think even on the question of le pen, with so much support still undecided, we still are not sure whether she makes it to the second round, although that looks like it is going to be the case right now. mark: let's bring up one of my favorite charts, which is the spread, the difference in yield between the french and german ten-year. it has moved up in recent days, coming down a fraction today, but about 70 basis points. 79 was the february high. it shows the heightened uncertainty as we move toward next weekend. would you expect that spread to widen further? and if we get a shot in the first round, or a couple of sharks, it is game on, isn't it, for th

mr. fillon was out loud and clear to back mr. macron but mr. mell mellenchon has not.on this time. >> wow. he won't do that badly but that's not totally irrelevant when there was a senior le pen against a more conventional candidate, right? >> reporter: we can look at that quickly, joe. that was 2002. this is a reason why markets are so confident right now. in 2002 the father of current le pen, jean marie le pen lost 82-18% so clearly people are confident that something of that ilk will happen again. but there are differences. in the first round the difference then was turnout was lower and jean marie le pen only got 16%. this mime marine le pen has over 20% and a higher turnout so a more conventiincing first round performance. jack chirac was a fellow right-leaning politician and easier for him to get the center ground and a member of the republican party with a big base of support. mr. macron doesn't really have that. clearly there's confidence off the back of these historic uniting against the national front, but there are differences too. clearly the markets focusi

mr. fillon and mr. three of the leading four candidates have suspended their campaigns for the finlt dal day campaigning. the far-left, mr. melenchon said he had not because the democratic process must continue. we've been asking voters whether the attacks would change the way they plan to vote. here's what they had to say. >> terrorism is an issue for me obviously. but it's not -- well, it won't help voting. >> i heard some were saying that they are going to remove some security measures in paris. well, this is not right or a good idea. >> my ideas are in my mind before the attack or after or during, because we had a lot of attacks. so, one more, nothing changed. >> overall i'd say the tone of voters is one of solidarity in paris than one of fear. we should say that the betting market and the financial markets, which are live and up to date, they have not really reacted to this at all. the latest poll that came out yesterday before the attacks still has emanuel macron leading by 24%, and marine le pen

mr. fillon or the other centrist candidate would be running against marine le pen.t appears now that one real option is that the left-wing candidate, melenchon, is really like france's bernie sanders, if you will. communist, running against le pen. either of those two as president of france is a disaster for the european union. mr. melenchon wants to borrow all the money he wants and get rid of the stability mechanism in europe. ms. le pen wants to leave the european union altogether and have a referendum about it. you have the italian banking system that is bust. and you have greece, if you take their public and private debt, well over 5$500 billion, and its 302% debt to gdp ratio. you have too much risk in europe, and i want nothing to do with investing there at present. i told a lot of large financial institutions exactly how i feel about this. >> mark, that's counter to what we hear from so many guests who come on the air and say europe is a great place to be. i would say that is kind of where the herd is headed at this point. >> i agree with you, but the herd i

mr. phil and -- fillon.he other candidates have lower presentations, so it is a very biased apple relative to what you get in france. when we:00 local time get the first set of results, they will be part of that in favor of these candidates. i am looking at the w crf function. if we go down to the number 22, the euro is one of the weaker candidates. , what doe wake up markets react to that? and it is a very large scale adjustment in the ot curve. >> [indiscernible] everyone has been buying it on a fairly aggressive faction -- fashion. maybe 1% to 2%. and generally speaking, it will reinforce the trump trade. risk disappears and they will reinforce the existing one. >> following the netherlands people extrapolated what that would mean for the french election. will the next thing happen this time around? >> there is a huge difference between france and germany. it is a small type of situation. of theagement in terms past few years, they are well-known. also, the left versus right is a classic type of change. a

with 46 million votes counted — mr macron led with 23.82% of votes and madame le pen on 21.58%. the conservative francois fillonnchon both on 19%. our first report from france, is by our europe editor katya adler. one presidential election, two rival visions for france. fresh—faced emmanuel macron tops poll projections, promising fairer government, neither right nor left wing. a pro—eu centrist, confident of success. translation: i hope that in a fortnight, i will become your president. i want to become the president of all the people of france. the president of the patriots, in the face of the threats from the nationalists. a president able to protect, to transform and to build. emmanuel macron now goes through to the second and final round of france's vote for president. against... far—right marine le pen, anti—immigration, anti—globalisation and anti—eu. her presidential plan was to make france for the french. translation: the time has come to get rid of all the arrogant people who wanted to dictate to the population what they should do. i am the candidate for the people. ever since polls closed this evening

mr. macron, the center-left candidate. he will pen, 23%, fillon and melenchon just behind them at 20%.n the french election, here's the spread between the french and the german ten-year bond yield, it's around 70 basis points. that's the longer-term chart over five years. it is at igts highest level sine 2012, when mario draghi gave his comments, but significantly lower than the 2012 level, which got to about -- >> this is risky france versus safe haven germany. >> that's right. >> that spread has widened significantly throughout the course of the start of this year. at the high effort level since 2012 but lower than the eurozone crisis moments. >> the confusing thing for investors is the polls have stayed remarkably stable. everyone with the 20%, 23% level, it's hard to read how accurate the polls will be with turnout and this added complication that there will be two rounds of voting with a potential runoff. >> definite runoff. nobody will get hit 50%. the surprise is that very fact. the fact that there are four candidates that could win this. >> two on opposite ends of the spectrum

mr. conservativey candidate. if he comes up and the contest is between fillon and marine le lon almostfil certainly wins.d be the other scenario, given the fact that he is not, in my opinion, a good candidate. i hope that macron makes it. >> i looked at the imf growth outlook this week. a huge risk is protectionism. do you think that we will not be seeing multilateral deals any longer? we have moved past the multilateral deals? >> i think we have all learned that we do not make production on that kind of thing for a few years ahead. i hope very much and i expect it multilateralhat deals will return. there are several countries across the world, i think china that.hat -- wants i think we will return to that. i think these are dissenting voices. after all, trump got a minority of votes in this country. i think marine le pen would not get more than a relatively small minority. i think that is the kind of danger that we have right now. i call it a danger because, i think, to lose a multilateral trade agreement is a big loss. >> i want to ask you about demonetization. you have been very vocal about it in indi

fillon as well. it is about someone looking beyond his supporters. james, we were just talking here. there is a lot of hope and optimism expressed by mr macron. are saying they still need to seek policies and manifested. what will you do to actually change france? —— seed policies and ma nifestos. france? —— seed policies and manifestos. a lot of promises about being pro—eu, pro—business and pro—social welfare. at what point will this be crystallised ? pro—social welfare. at what point will this be crystallised? they say he will go around and get as many votes as he can from others. that would be the central question asked of him and his supporters in the next couple of weeks. it is all rather having promises converted into a rather having promises converted intoa number of rather having promises converted into a number of votes in the first round but what about real specifics it should be a governing programme? he is the strong favourite and might have one eye on the parliamentary elections in june. no have one eye on the parliamentary elections injune. no point being president if you do not have a parliament wanted to carry out your wishes.

fillon last d to sunday but she's got a new slogan. choose france. and in her speech, she said she would protect french jobs and keep france safe. >> the election of mr. macron will mean france will increasingly be swamped from immigrants. this election therefore, asks the french people on mass immigration. mass immigration stop or more. >> stop brought back several how to supporters brought back chants of "this is our home." >> this is our very last chance to see france re-establish our greatness and save our judeo christian civilization. >> nice is symbolic for her party because it is where 86 people were killed in a terrific attack last july but some voters resent her tactics. >> i think it's appalling to try and benefit from such attacks when she says with me, nothing like this would have never appened. >> when it comes to security, i'm not afraid. you have to get by. marine la pen does not impress me. i won't vote for her. >> le pen is also calling voters across the country who opted for ar lest candidate on april 23. he gained around 20% of the vote but he hadn't pledge support for her rival, macron. molly: emmanuel macron is urging voters to b

with a turnout of 78% — that's 36.4 million voters — mr macron led with 23% — and madame le pen secured 21%. conservative francois fillon felljust short of 20% to take third place, marginally ahead ofjean—luc melenchon, the far left candidate. our correspondent james reynold was at the victory rally for emmanuel macron in paris. emmanuel macron is france's newcomer, and now the winner of this election‘s first round. he is an insider who's run as an outsider. the 39—year—old is a pro—eu, pro—business centrist. he resigned as a minister in order to form his own political movement. and his gamble has paid off. translation: i hope that in a fortnight, i will become your president. cheering. his supporters believe that the rest of the country will now rally around him. this is emmanuel macron‘s first election. the french people still hardly know him. he is now the favourite to become this country's next president. marine le pen, the front national, will fight emmanuel macron in the final round. she won more votes than the party has ever won before. it matches her father jean—marie's achievement 15 years ago in reaching a pre

fillon second tour? he says i will qualify for the second round. that's been the story the last three days, the republican candidate, the party of mr.kozy just caught back up again and is now second favorite. that's something markets welcome. they would like to see him make the second round. if we see the euro versus the yen, it paints that picture nicely. over the last three months, down, but ticking up a bit the last day or two. so markets taking their foot off the worry a little bit. >> wilfred, when we touched down i remember right before brexit we heard a speech, i think on bbc, from boris johnson appealing to last-minute voters to vote out. that was the emotional take. we painted it as rational versus emotional. the same thing with donald trump eliciting an emotional response is that dynamic at work in france? >> it definitely is. it is highlighted by that front page i showed you, the first one. the battle of the working class being framed as either a far-left or far-right. there's some similarities there on how this has broken down traditional political divides. there's an emotional tone, a nationalistic one, both because of